MLB Free Agency

At least one Major League Baseball executive can't imagine Aaron Judge leaving the opportunity to hit home runs in New York for the chance to play in San Francisco.

"He's going to leave the greatest market to go across the country to a team where it's hard to hit homers? Come on," the executive said, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Statcast shows Yankee Stadium was the eighth-most favorable ballpark in the league for park effects leading to more home runs in 2022. By comparison, the Giants' Oracle Park was a mere 27th and is better known for knocking down potential homers.

Considering Judge just set the American League record with 62 long balls while winning the MVP and also led the league with 52 home runs as the 2017 AL Rookie of the Year, it is a valid point.

Power is the defining feature of his game, and joining the Giants could hamper that as he plays into his 30s.

Yet that is far from the only factor.

As Heyman noted, San Francisco is about two hours from Judge's parents hometown of Linden, California. The free agent also grew up cheering for the Giants and could even still be upset about Yankees fans booing him during the playoffs.

Heyman reported it is essentially coming down to the Giants and Yankees since the Los Angeles Dodgers are more focused on pitching and shortstop, but that likely won't stop Judge from making $300 million or more on his next deal.

The question now is whether he will continue his Yankee legacy and the chase for his first championship or join the National League for the first time and play closer to home for his childhood favorite team.

If he is worried about how the respective ballparks will impact his power, the choice may be clear.

Two-time National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom is available to sign with any team on the open market, but the New York Mets are confident that the prized free agent doesn't want to go anywhere.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that while the Mets know there's a chance deGrom walks in free agency, the team is prioritizing him this offseason and believes he is interested in staying put as well.

"Mets people seem to think he prefers to return (well, he could have fooled me!), and there's some concern about losing their homegrown uber-talent and watching him win Cy Young awards elsewhere, so he may still be their top remaining target," Heyman wrote.

Heyman also predicted that the Texas Rangers would be the team with the second-best chances to sign deGrom this offseason, but he listed the Tampa Bay Rays as a long shot despite the franchise's proximity to his hometown of DeLand, Florida. He noted that the Rays are not known for big spending in free agency, while deGrom will undoubtedly command a hefty price tag.

The 2022 season didn't go as deGrom had planned, as he was forced to miss the first few months because of a stress reaction in his shoulder. After making his season debut in August, he finished with a 5-4 record in 11 starts. He posted a 0.75 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 64.1 innings pitched, but his 3.08 ERA was his first time with a plus-3.00 ERA since 2017.

DeGrom had a particularly tough finish to the regular season when he allowed three or more earned runs in four consecutive starts. However, he had a strong showing in Game 2 of the Mets' wild-card series against the San Diego Padres, allowing two runs with eight strikeouts in a 7-3 win. New York went on to lose the series in an upset after being pegged as a World Series contender earlier in the year.

While deGrom likely has multiple teams courting him in free agency, the Mets have a strong core that can once again contend for a title in 2023 if he decides to stay. Max Scherzer will surely be motivated after his postseason disappointment, and New York was able to retain star closer Edwin Diaz at the start of the offseason. Keeping deGrom in the mix would give the Mets a strong chance at bouncing back next season.

The New York Yankees reportedly have made a big offer to 2022 American League MVP Aaron Judge with the hope of getting him to re-sign.

Per ESPN's Jeff Passan, the Yankees "have an offer on the table" in the range of eight years and $300 million.

Passan did note the team "could increase" the offer if another suitor makes a serious play.

The San Francisco Giants have been viewed as Judge's most likely destination if he leaves New York. It's unclear at this point if the Giants have made a formal offer, but they did host the four-time All-Star on a visit last week.

According to Passan, Judge will likely make his decision during the winter meetings that begin on Sunday in San Diego.

If the deal Judge signs is for $300 million over eight years, it will be the richest average annual deal for a position player in Major League Baseball history. Mike Trout currently holds the title with a $35.5 million average salary from the Los Angeles Angels.

Max Scherzer ($43.3 million) and Gerrit Cole ($36 million) are the top two players in MLB by average annual salary.

The newly reported offer from the Yankees is a significant increase over what they proposed to Judge before the start of the 2022 season.

General manager Brian Cashman told reporters on April 8 that Judge turned down an offer of $17 million for 2022 plus $213.5 million over seven years. The average value of the deal over eight years would have been $28.8 million.

Judge significantly increased his value with a historic performance last season. He set a new American League record with 62 homers and became the first player since Barry Bonds in 2004 with at least 11 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs.

The Yankees went 99-63 during the regular season and won the American League East for the first time since 2019. They defeated the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS, but were swept out of the playoffs by the Houston Astros in the ALCS.

The Philadelphia Phillies are reportedly "viewed as the favorites" to sign superstar shortstop Trea Turner, one of the top players available on the free-agent market.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported the update Wednesday:

"The Phillies will wind up with one of the [elite] shortstops. That's going to happen," an agent told ESPN's Buster Olney.

Along with Turner, the other high-profile shortstops available in free agency include Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson.

Turner is coming off a 2022 season with the Los Angeles Dodgers where he posted a .298/.343/.466 slash line with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases in 160 games.

His 31.6 WAR since 2016, when he enjoyed a 13-homer, 33-steal breakout season with the Washington Nationals, ranks 10th among all MLB hitters over that span, per FanGraphs.

There were questions about whether the 29-year-old Florida native would limit his potential suitors in free agency, similar to what he did while getting traded by the Nats in 2021, but he told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register he'd keep an open mind on the market.

"I originally said that so I wouldn't necessarily get traded to certain places. I was trying to control as much as I could—because a lot of it was out of my control," Turner said in September. "Yeah, I'm an East Coast guy. But with free agency, you get a chance to pick and control it as much as you can in your entire career. I'm open to anything really. Everything is in play."

Leaving the Dodgers to join the Phillies, who made an unexpected run to the World Series as a wild card in 2022, could shift the balance of power in the National League.

Philadelphia would open the season with a top three in the batting order of Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins, which would already be among MLB's best, and it should get two-time MVP Bryce Harper back at some point during the season after elbow surgery.

At full strength, the Phillies would have a stacked roster capable of making another World Series push, but they likely wouldn't even be a clear favorite to win the NL East.

The Atlanta Braves, who've captured the division title five straight years, and New York Mets also figure to remain top-tier contenders in 2023. So it would set up potentially one of the best three-way divisional races in recent memory.

Turner is the type of game-changing talent capable of singularly tipping the scales in favor of the Phillies, especially if the Braves aren't able to retain Swanson from the loaded group of shortstop free agents.

None of the big names at the key position has come off the board yet, but once someone does sign to set the financial market, the others could fall into place quickly.

It sounds like Philly is ready to make a shortstop splash one way or another, though Turner is the ultimate prize.

New York Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton will face more pressure to stay healthy and carry the club's offense if Aaron Judge departs in free agency.

The Yanks can only wait as Judge, who set the American League record with 62 home runs this year, goes through his free-agent process. Nothing indicates he's leaning toward leaving the Bronx, but tension will remain until he announces his decision.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Thursday the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants remain the "biggest threats" to lure away the superstar outfielder, though the Yankees continue to hold the edge in the high-profile pursuit.

While New York appears to remain in a strong position to retain Judge, the question of what happens if he leaves is still part of the equation.

Some additions, either via trade or free agency, would be necessary to fill the massive void, but a healthy year from Stanton would also provide a massive boost.

The 33-year-old five-time All-Star made 158 appearances during his first season with the Yankees in 2018 but hasn't reached that number over the subsequent four years:

• 2019: 18 games played
• 2020: 23 (60-game season)
• 2021: 139
• 2022: 110

That equates to 53.1 percent of the Yanks' games since 2019.

Stanton's power numbers were strong in 2022. His 31 home runs equate to a 45.7-homer pace over a full 162-game campaign. His other numbers were underwhelming, however, including a career-low .297 on-base percentage.

It'll be important for the 2017 National League MVP to post an OBP closer to his career average (.354) should he slide up the order, likely to the No. 3 spot, if Judge exits. Paired with continued pop, that would help the Yankees offense remain afloat.

New York ranked second in runs scored (807) and fourth in OPS (.751) in 2022.

The Yanks would have no way to directly replace Judge if he lands in L.A., San Francisco or elsewhere. It'd require a team effort to make up for his MVP-level production. That effort would start with a monster campaign from Stanton.

The Yankees will hope it's a storyline they never have to explore and that Judge is back in pinstripes to open the 2023 season.

Outfielder Michael Conforto and catcher Christian Vázquez are reportedly among the Chicago Cubs' group of free-agent targets.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Thursday the Cubs have been in contact with both players, and in the case of Conforto, he's seeking a two-year contract with an opt-out clause after 2023.

Chicago finished with a 74-88 record in 2022, which left the club 13 games out of a playoff spot in the National League.

The biggest question entering the offseason was whether the club would try to make a major splash in free agency to accelerate its roster reconstruction or if the front office would opt for a more modest winter to continue a slow building process.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported last week the Cubs were linked to all four of the big-name shortstops on the free-agent market: Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

Signing one of those marquee targets would be a sign Chicago is trying to turn a corner in 2023.

On the flip side, an offseason headlined by additions like Conforto and Vázquez likely would point toward another rebuilding year for the North Siders.

Conforto, 29, missed the entire 2022 season while recovering from a shoulder injury. In 2021 with the New York Mets, he compiled a .232/.344/.384 slash line with 14 home runs in 125 games. His 1.4 WAR was his lowest figure since 2016, according to FanGraphs.

Vázquez, 32, hasn't been a major threat at the plate throughout his career aside from a 23-homer season for the Boston Red Sox in 2019, but he's a high-end defender behind the dish. His 11 defensive runs saved in 2022 ranked tied for fourth among catchers, per FanGraphs.

The Cubs have a need at both catcher and designated hitter, so Conforto and Vázquez would be solid upgrades, they just don't represent the type of game-changing additions the club needs to push toward contention in the immediate future.

That said, adding both of them along with one of the star shortstops could start to create a little buzz in Chicago.

The Minnesota Twins are reportedly planning to "go hard" in their efforts to re-sign shortstop Carlos Correa despite plenty of competition on the free-agent market.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Thursday there are at least eight MLB teams that have shown interest in Correa, who's entered free agency for the second straight year.

The 28-year-old Puerto Rico native signed a three-year contract with the Twins in March, but it included an opt-out clause after the first season, which he exercised in early November.

Correa enjoyed a solid campaign with the Twins. He compiled a .291/.366/.467 slash line with 22 home runs across 136 appearances. His 4.4 WAR ranked ninth among shortstops, per FanGraphs.

The shortstop spent the first seven years of his MLB career with the Houston Astros, highlighted by winning a World Series title in 2017. His individual accolades included the AL Rookie of the Year Award and a pair of All-Star selections (2017 and 2021).

His latest foray into free agency is slightly complicated by the fact there are four standout shortstops available, the others being Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

In turn, the signings may be a little sluggish until one of them joins a team to help set the contract market for the others. The fact eight clubs have already checked in with Correa shows the demand is high, which is a good sign for the entire quartet.

The Twins' firm interest likely stems from the need to have lineup protection for Byron Buxton. A top three in the order of Luis Arraez, Buxton and Correa is strong, and it doesn't have the same potential if Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco slides into the No. 3 spot.

Correa spoke about a potential return to Minnesota in late September, saying it was up to the Twins to make the best offer:

So it sounds like the standout infielder is taking a business-first approach to free agency. That puts the pressure on the team's front office to decide whether it's willing to outbid all of the other clubs with interest.

If not, the Twins will have a significant lineup void to fill before the 2023 season gets underway.