MLB Free Agency

Record-breaking New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge reportedly headlines a group of nine MLB players expected to receive contracts of at least $100 million this offseason.

One player, New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz, already joined the nine-figure club by signing a $102 million extension. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported other members of the group expected to join Diaz and Judge via free agency, which opens Thursday at 5 p.m. ET:

• SS Trea Turner (Los Angeles Dodgers)
• SS Carlos Correa (Minnesota Twins)
• SS Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox)
• SS Dansby Swanson (Atlanta Braves)
• OF Brandon Nimmo (New York Mets)
• SP Carlos Rodón (San Francisco Giants)
• SP Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)

Nimmo is the only name on the list that may catch some people by surprise given his modest counting stats across seven seasons with the Mets. He's recorded just 63 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 608 career appearances.

That said, the 29-year-old center fielder gets on base at a high rate (.385 career on-base percentage) and plays solid defense (six outs above average in 2022, per FanGraphs).

Agent Scott Boras said Wednesday a "majority" of teams have already called him about Nimmo.

"You are looking at a guy that there are no center fielders in our game that are available," Boras told reporters. "And then you add leadoff to that and then you add ... on-base percentage to that, and he's an excellent defender and then also he can play in New York. When you have those elements that are there, he becomes a very integral part of what we found for a team to win 100 games. He's a very proven commodity and there are very few that can replace him."

Otherwise, two intriguing storylines early in free agency will be whether the Yankees can keep pace in the Judge sweepstakes and which star shortstop signs first to set the market at the position.

New York can't afford to lose Judge and expect to remain a top-tier contender in the American League. He carried the club's offense for extended stretches in 2022 en route to setting the new AL home run record with 62.

As Boras alluded, there aren't many great options available in center field, and even the dropoff from Judge to Nimmo is rather significant. So the ability to re-sign the 6'7'' slugger is a make-or-break situation for the Yanks.

Meanwhile, all four of the top-tier shortstops available should surpass the $100 million mark if they're willing to sign long-term deals.

Swanson, who's often ranked fourth on the list and could sign first to help set the baseline for the others, finds himself in a similar situation to Freddie Freeman last offseason. He's spent his entire career with the Braves but hits the market without a new deal.

"Business is business, man. It's not always the fun part about the game," Swanson said last week on 92.9 The Game. "I wish it was just one plus one, but it never seems to be that way."

Freeman left to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Swanson may follow him out the Truist Park door, leaving Atlanta with a void at shortstop.

All told, a lot of money is going to get spent over the next few months and, given the high-end talent available, the clubs willing to open their checkbooks could put themselves at the forefront of the 2023 championship chase.

Catcher Willson Contreras will become a free agent after declining the Chicago Cubs' $19.65 million qualifying offer, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Contreras, who will turn 31 years old in May, is a three-time All-Star who has spent his entire seven-year MLB career with the Cubs. He had 22 home runs, 55 RBI and an .815 OPS in 113 games last season.

Heyman noted that Contreras "should do extremely well on the open market."

The Detroit Tigers already appear to have interest, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network:

The Houston Astros had been interested at the trade deadline, so much so that they and the Cubs agreed to a deal that would have sent starting pitcher Jose Urquidy to the Windy City pending ownership approval, per ESPN's Jeff Passan. But that approval never occurred.

Elsewhere, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last month that "the Cardinals should strongly consider benefitting from the Cubs' loss" of Contreras.

Regardless of where Contreras winds up, that team will get one of the best offensive catchers in baseball.

Only two catchers with 300 or more at-bats last season had a better OPS than Contreras. One was his brother, William Contreras of the Atlanta Braves. The other was J.T. Realmuto of the National League champion Philadelphia Phillies. Willson Contreras is good enough at the dish to serve as a designated hitter, which he did 39 times last season.

The cost to sign Contreras certainly won't be cheap, though. Heyman reported in June that Contreras would "likely be seeking" a deal of more than $100 million over five years.

That could be worth it for a player of his caliber, and Contreras will be one to watch as the hot-stove season rolls on.

The New York Mets are reportedly "most worried" about the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers as they attempt to re-sign starting pitcher Jacob deGrom, who opted out of his contract to become a free agent.

SNY's Andy Martino reported Tuesday the Mets are expected to make a "strong" offer to bring back deGrom early in free agency but aren't planning to stay in a long-term bidding war with the Braves, Rangers and other interested clubs if that's how the situation plays out.

Martino also noted the two sides have had "preliminary contact":

The top of New York's pitching staff is the main point of concern as free agency gets prepared to open Thursday, especially after the team was able to re-sign closer Edwin Diaz to solidify the back end of the bullpen.

There are a lot of question marks behind Max Scherzer, which means multiple additions could be necessary if Carlos Carrasco and Chris Bassitt also depart.

DeGrom coming back would provide a major boost, but it doesn't sound like the Mets' front office is willing to meet or exceed any offer to keep him.

The club is willing to pay fair market value or "perhaps go a bit higher" but will otherwise attempt to fill the void in another way, per Martino.

Watching the two-time Cy Young Award winner, who's pitched his entire nine-year career with the Mets, land with the NL East rival Braves would be a tough pill to swallow, though.

Atlanta already features one of MLB's best rotations with Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton, and picking up a starter with a 2.52 ERA across 209 career starts would give the Braves the best starting group in baseball.

Meanwhile, deGrom represents a bigger need for the Rangers, who have more talent on their roster than their 68-94 record in 2022 would indicate. One of the missing pieces is a true ace.

In October, Texas general manager Chris Young didn't hide his intention to enter free agency with an eye toward improving the rotation.

"We will be active on the free-agent market with the intention of signing multiple starting pitchers," Young told reporters.

Landing deGrom would be a massive step in the right direction toward rebuilding that area of the roster.

All told, it's hard to imagine the Mets won't do everything in their power to keep their longtime ace, but all signs point toward ample competition on the market.

New York Mets general manager Billy Eppler is reportedly "less likely" to target free agents who receive qualifying contract offers from their current teams.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Thursday the Mets are wary of losing draft picks as compensation for those possible signings, which could impact their pursuit of New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge or San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Carlos Rodón.

The Mets have been frequently mentioned as a possible landing spot for Judge, who launched 62 home runs in 2022, but that's more related to the big-spending ways of team owner Steve Cohen than a glaring need in the outfield.

New York's projected outfield starters for 2023 are Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte and Mark Canha. That's not to say the longtime Yankees slugger wouldn't upgrade that group, but there are certainly bigger issues for the front office to address heading into the offseason.

The club must solidify its starting rotation, especially if Jacob deGrom leaves in free agency, vastly improve the bullpen and potentially find new starters at second base and catcher.

That's a lot of money to spend, either via free-agent signings or trade acquisitions, before even considering whether to offer upward of $300 million to Judge.

The Mets could still pursue the four-time All-Star, but it'll more likely happen if his free-agent process drags out a bit to give them time to fill other holes first and get some financial clarity.

Meanwhile, Rodón seems like an ideal fit on paper as a high-end lefty starter who could complement Max Scherzer and deGrom, if re-signed.

The 29-year-old Miami native recorded a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 237 strikeouts in 178 innings for the Giants this season. That followed up a 2021 season with the Chicago White Sox where he compiled a 2.37 ERA.

Ultimately, if the Mets aren't interested in relinquishing draft picks as part of their free-agent efforts, it's going to limit the number of impact players they'll be able to pursue.

It wouldn't be a surprise if that stance changes at some point over the winter if the club's roster-building process isn't yielding the desired results.