Rugby World Cup 2015: 5 Things Wales Must Do to Beat South Africa
Wales have limped into the last eight of the World Cup like a lone soldier emerging from the battlefield—bloodied, bruised, but staggering towards safety.
Bits have been falling off Warren Gatland’s squad since before the tournament started.
So deep have the injuries gouged the Welsh playing party that they have resorted to bringing a player back into the group who has still not recovered from the knock that propelled him out of it in the first place. Welcome back, Eli Walker, the physio has been expecting you.
And yet they are still standing, still absorbing the blows and swinging back with some of their own.
Perceived wisdom this weekend is that the knockout punch will be delivered by the heavyweights of South Africa.
The Springboks, having been floored themselves by Japan’s shock-and-awe tactics of the opening weekend, have cleared their heads and stormed to the top of Pool B, which meant a meeting with Wales in the last eight.
Heyneke Meyer’s squad has not been without its own injury travails. They lost captain Jean de Villiers to a broken jaw, but this has given way to the blossoming midfield partnership of the robust Damian de Allende and the burgeoning Jesse Kriel.
In every other department, there is vast experience. And bulk, so much bulk.
The Springboks have warmed to the task after that earth-tilting first game, and they look primed to do a job on the decimated men in red.
But enough of the doom-mongering for Welsh prospects.
Here's a statistic for you: South Africa have lost four of their eight fixtures this calendar year, and they did so the year before, too.
Granted, that is more likely to happen when you play New Zealand and Australia as often as the Boks do, but still, they are no impenetrable fortress.
Wales can find a way to beat this team, and there are five things they must do to achieve it.
1. Target the Beast
We have seen the power of the scrummage at this World Cup, none more so than when Australia battered England and Wales with theirs.
The Welsh video analysts will have been working overtime to address the problems Samson Lee had against Scott Sio at Twickenham, and the further damage done once Tomas Francis replaced him.
But they can also look back to the autumn of 2014, when Lee was part of the Welsh side that beat South Africa 12-6 in Cardiff.
That afternoon, the young Scarlet got the better of his opposite man, Tendai Mtawarira, just as he had on Wales’ tour down south that summer.
Lee will be better for the minutes on the field having come back sooner than expected from an ankle injury and, if picked to start, will be vital to the Welsh effort if he can put the Beast in trouble.
2. Offload, Offoad, Offload
It’s a risky game to play, with interception merchants like Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen lurking, but Wales simply must try to keep the ball alive as much as possible.
The Springbok back row thrives on getting its big men in over the ball, and they are ably assisted by hooker Bismarck du Plessis, who acts as a fourth, unofficial member of that gang.
The best answer is to do as much as possible to avoid the scenario that sees isolated runners go to ground in the channels where these big Boks will be waiting.
Instead, Welsh ball-carriers need to be supported, and they need to free their hands to pass around the back of their tacklers. Dying with the ball will only result in penalties to South Africa and massive territorial losses. Keeping the ball alive will also make those big forwards run further and expend more energy.
WalesOnline’s Andy Howell points out this is how Japan profited against them: "Japan’s success was based on producing quick ball and switching the point of running with bewildering speed, exposing the lack of mobility amongst the beasts in South Africa’s juggernaut pack."
3. Test Their Youngsters
Everyone has been impressed by the centre partnership of Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel, but they remain inexperienced in Test rugby, and the atmosphere at Twickenham on Saturday will be like nothing they have tasted before.
Wales, with the vastly experienced Jamie Roberts going up against De Allende, must look to test him out. The Harlequins-bound Roberts will exploit any defensive misalignment from the 23-year-old and is an expert at running against a player’s weaker shoulder.
Furthermore, using the likes of Toby Faletau and Roberts as decoys to hold these young men is the perfect way to bring George North on to the ball with space to get up a head of steam.
At fly half, Handre Pollard has a few more miles on the clock, but he is still callow by comparison to No. 10s who have taken their teams all the way in this tournament.
Pollard can often decide to take things on by himself if he feels there is nothing on. Wales’ back row must gobble him up if he tries this on Saturday, and this is where the turnovers will come for Sam Warburton and Co.
4. Defend with Fire and Brimstone
If there was a positive to come from Wales’ defeat against Australia that pushed them into this fixture, it was that they stopped the Wallabies scoring a try.
Granted, they coughed up so many penalties in that effort that they found another way to lose, but shutting out the attack that did so much damage to England was a commendable achievement.
Wales, under Shaun Edwards’ defensive mastery, are good at this. In fact, they did it to South Africa in November last year when they won 12-6, as second row Luke Charteris recalled, per the Guardian: "Our defence was the difference that day. When you look back, whenever we have a big win our defence has usually been a massive part of that."
Per ESPN, that victory’s top tacklers were Sam Warburton (18), Dan Lydiate (16) and Gethin Jenkins, who made 13.
The loosehead has had his issues at scrum time in this World Cup, but his defensive work rate is probably the best in the world for a prop, and it may well be crucial for Wales on Saturday.
5. Don’t Kick the Ball out Very Much
Last November, South Africa won all eight of their own lineouts and stole three of Wales’. It is a major area of strength for the Boks and not one Wales will want to play to.
It is a common policy for Warren Gatland’s side to keep the ball in play rather than kick it out, and it would be wise not to deviate from that approach on Saturday.
Instead, they must give George North and Co. the chance to chase down the catchers and pin them in their own territory.
