NBA Western Conference

LA Lakers (1) vs. Houston Rockets (5)

Houston surprised me in their first round series. In Game One, the Rockets blew Portland out and really set the tone.

The Rockets' role players had an excellent series as well. Von Wafer was a surprising handful and Aaron Brooks was filling the void that Tracy McGrady left. With Ron Artest playing solid D, and Yao Ming's offensive presence, I think Houston has a shot at beating the Lakers. 

Kobe and Co. were never really challenged by Utah in the first round. Andrew Bynum hasn't been as much of an addition to this team in the playoffs as I originally thought he'd be. This is why I look to Bynum to become kind of an x-factor in this series. 

Ming's domination in the post against Portland isn't something we'll be seeing in the semis. Ming was going up against the inexperienced Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla, now he'll have to deal with Bynum and Pau Gasol. 

Houston shot lights out throughout the first round. I don't think it's going to be the same in round two, and I just think the Rockets are going to have to play in a different way against the Lakers.

Kobe Bryant is a different player than Brandon Roy, who they saw in round one. It's going to be hard to shut Bryant down, and it's really a job fit for T-Mac. 

And let's not forget that LA was 4-0 against the Rockets this season. 

Lakers in Six. 

Denver Nuggets (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (6)

I know this series already started last night, but I'll go ahead and give my insight anyways. 

Dallas surprised me in the first round, but game one against Denver last night was something ugly. Denver's defense has been solid, but Dirk Nowitzki was still able to put up 28 points and 10 rebounds in their game one loss. 

In order to win the series, the Mavs will need Jason Terry to play that Sixth Man role, as he did in the first round and throughout the year. Terry has given Dallas the extra push throughout the season, and he could make the difference in some games. 

Denver's offense is pretty strong, but I think that if the Nuggets win this series, it's going to be due to the offense. Chris Andersen had six blocks in game one, and he's really all over the court when he's out there. Believe it or not, this clown makes the Nuggets a lot better. 

For the Mavericks, winning the series will obviously rely heavily on the play of Dirk. He's an MVP winner, he's been to the finals, and he knows what it takes to win. 

Mavs in Seven. 

Despite an off-night from leader Chauncey Billups (six points on 2-of-8 shooting) and a exceptional performance from Dirk Nowitzki (28 points and 10 boards) the Nuggets defeated the Mavericks 109-95 to take control of their second-round series 1-0.

Its safe to say certain occurrences are unlikely to surface again such as Billups' woeful night and Sixth Man Of The Year Jason Terry playing visibly quiet.

With that taken into account, here are the keys for the Nuggets going into Game Two:

Expect Carmelo To Continue To Attack:

As I wrote before, Melo will continue to shred the Mavericks as he's done in his career and he continued that streak.

He made over 65 percent of his shots from mid-range and long-range as he went 7-of-10 from the floor, 2-of-3 from behind the arc, and he also made all seven of his free-throws en route to tallying 23 points, five rebounds, four assists, two steals, two blocks, in a well balanced effort despite playing with foul-trouble for the majority of the contest.

With Josh Howard certainly favoring his newly sprained left ankle, you can expect Melo to be more aggressive on drives, attacking the rim, and from the triple-threat position.

A hurt ankle restricts mobility and both of Howard's have suffered injuries this season. Anthony is one of the quicker forwards in the league and if Howard can't stay in front of him the Nuggets' should have a field day in Game Two.

Exploiting The Right Matchups:

Defensive specialist Dahntay Jones did a modest job of using his size at 6-6 to punish his defender who was the smaller JJ Barea (5-10) and scored on a couple of easy baskets with his back to the basket including a key three-point play early in the game.

With prior knowledge that Erick Dampier might perhaps be the slowest center in the league getting up the court, Nene's game-plan was to attack the rim and use his speed to drive around the slower veteran.

And watching Dampier crumple to the floor only accentuated those motives. Nene exploded for 18 of his 24 points in the first-half and threw down a series of one-handed hammers and proved to be the underlining most important player for the Denver Nuggets in the game.

Later in the second quarter, Nene found himself in the passing lanes, picked up a steal, and lofted a perfect outlet pass over two Mavs' defenders to J.R. Smith for an easy dunk.

On a few possessions later, he blocked a Dirk Nowitzki lay-up and then raced up on the other end of the court; streaking past Erick Dampier and elevating for a dunk.

After Game One, Mavericks Head Coach Rick Carlisle may look to make adjustments, possibly by starting Ryan Hollins at center to contest Nene's quickness. However Nene still has the strength and the superior basketball I.Q. to bull the thinner Hollins in the paint.

If Nene can get off to a hot start, the Nuggets' will be operating on all cylinders.

Consistent Bench-Play For The Nuggets:

J.R. Smith, Chris "Birdman" Andersen, and back-up point guard Anthony Carter all scored in double-figures and the trio alone outscored all seven players on the Mavs' bench (including Sixth Man Of The Year Jason Terry) 38-34 and they also helped seal the Nuggets' victory with their free-throw disparity as they got to the line 15 times to only two for Dallas.

The Nuggets' trio also shared the ball and combined for 12 assists to just 2 turnovers, highlighted by the unselfish play of J.R. Smith who had six and scored 15 points along with three steals.

Birdman took care of the defense and was truly in his own element as a rangy shot-blocker who had a playoff-high six blocked shots and also contributed six boards and eleven points.

Lastly, Anthony Carter provided another dose of steady, veteran leadership and orchestrated Denver's offense and really helped set the tempo. He knocked down timely shots and also got back on defense which George Karl unquestionably admires.

The Nuggets' have one of the best benches in basketball and if they can continue to get an onslaught from their bench it will ease the load off of the starters and further cement the game when the starters are clicking.

The series will resume on Tuesday back at the Pepsi Center with the Nuggets leading 1-0.

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (5) Houston Rockets

Of all the second-round matchups in this year's NBA Playoffs, this one is the most tantalizing. L.A.’s athleticism and skill versus Houston’s discipline and brawn makes for quite the clash, and the two teams are clearly the best in the West.

The series will be determined by the answers to a number of crucial questions:

Will Kobe Bryant get the best of Houston’s tag-team defensive duo of Shane Battier and Ron Artest?

Depending on Kobe’s mindset, yes.

If Kobe attempts to force-feed his ego and fire up any manner of wild, contested jump shots, then the Lakers offense will become entirely one-dimensional and inefficient. It’s hard to imagine Kobe having more than one game like Game Four against the Jazz, in which everything he threw up went in.

Kobe did a great job of trusting the triangle against Houston over the regular season, controlling games by passing, selectively picking his spots to attack Battier’s attempts to force him left, using brush screens to create space when shooting against Battier going left, and psychologically destroying Artest’s desire to get the best of him mano-y-mano.

And with a game on the line, Kobe’s infinite range leaves him a threat against any defender.

Will Yao Ming be able to decimate the Lakers in the paint?

Because of the Lakers' ability to double team from the baseline, any time Yao puts the ball down to dribble will be an adventure.

And even if Andrew Bynum still lacks the awareness to play adequate defense against complicated offenses, he should be strong enough to bump and bang Yao out of premium position in the post.

Which team’s point guards will play better?

While Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry are tough and talented, neither possesses an elite handle or veteran postseason-playmaking experience. The tenacity of Derek Fisher should shut down Houston’s mighty mites and induce several careless turnovers.

Meanwhile, Fisher is a more reliable shooter, and Shannon Brown is playing with total confidence right now.

Will Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum wear down Houston?

Because his post moves are crude and tentative coming back from injury, Bynum should be a non-factor against Yao’s massive size.

And even Gasol, who has a huge quickness advantage over Yao, has trouble getting around the Ming’s gargantuan frame.

However, the times when Luis Scola is latched onto Gasol, the "Gas Man" has been too long and too quick for Scola to handle.

Which Lamar Odom will show up?

If Odom is guarded by Scola, Chuck Hayes, or Carl Landry, the versatile dynamo that ruptured Utah’s front line will return for the Houston series. But against Battier and Artest, Odom would revert to the passive spectator that plays disassociated with the rest of the offense.

Who will Houston turn to in the clutch?

Ron Artest has frequently made awful decisions down the stretch of big games, and it’s hard to believe this series will be an exception. However, since the Rockets have all sorts of trouble getting the ball to Yao in the game, Artest will have to be Houston’s sole offensive weapon—and that could spell doom for either team.

Do the Lakers have the killer instinct to put away the Rockets, or do the Rockets have the talent to keep up with the Lakers?

If the Rockets can count on anything, it’s that the Lakers will take their foot off the gas pedal and abort their offense if they jump out to a big lead.

Still, it’s hard to imagine the Rockets having the firepower to outscore the Lakers in the second half unless the Houston defense plays exceptionally well.

The Rockets have too much trouble generating easy points, and the Lakers have too many weapons.

Prediction

The Lakers will ride a number of second half surges to douse the Rockets. Houston will have trouble getting into their offense, and Kobe will outshine Artest. Lakers in 6.

(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

Both of these squads are playing their best basketball of the season, setting up an explosive confrontation between two high-octane offenses.

Carmelo Anthony is much too strong for Josh Howard; whether by driving from the wing or posting up, Anthony should be able to call his number offensively, especially as Dallas doesn’t have the coordination to help and recover to Denver’s numerous three-point shooters. Of course, Anthony won’t be able to slow Howard down much on the other end, but the assumption is that Melo will make more plays over the course of the series than J-Ho will.

Chauncey Billups will feed teammates until they need him to take over the offense. However, unlike Chris Paul, who lacks the size to deal with Billups’ muscle, and who often overplays entry passing lanes, allowing pull-up threes, Jason Kidd is built to defend Billups. He’s strong enough to deal with Billups’ drives and smart enough to know when to help and when to stay attached to Billups’ hip.

Besides that, Kidd’s experienced a renaissance and is currently flourishing as a three-point shooter. That'll punish Billups when he’s forced to help.

Antoine Wright is strong, but he lacks the athleticism to deny Denver’s scorers. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' own stopper, Dahntay Jones, has the toughness, the speed, and the will to pick a man and stick to him like a leech, which is why Denver has a better chance of slowing down Dallas’ offense and not vice versa.

When Kenyon Martin is focused, he can compete smart enough to deny what his opponent wants to do—and in the case of Dirk Nowitzki, that's pull or spin left, then shoot. However, K-Mart often tucks his tail between his legs on the road or if off to a bad start.

Of course, given Dirk’s own fragile makeup, it’s imperative for each to have success early. Whoever gets off to a bad start might check himself out mentally for an entire game.

Erick Dampier is playing outstanding defensive basketball, rebounding, blocking shots, and avoiding foul trouble. If he can corral Nene’s quick post moves and drives, then the Mavs will only have to worry about Denver’s perimeter offense.

Jason Terry can light it up off the bench, but so can J.R. Smith. The Nuggets can answer Terry with Jones’ defense, while the Mavs’ counter for Smith is Smith’s own penchant for making awful decisions.

Brandon Bass can bounce and score both at the basket and with a midrange jumper. Since Chris Anderson is often abandoning his man to block shots, Bass should have a field day from 15 feet.

And if Anderson is checking Nowitzki, the Mavs will either have open invitations to the basket, or Dirk will feast on a buffet of midrange jump shots, depending on whether or not Anderson is instructed to sell out for blocks or stick to Dirk.

Anthony Carter is too strong for J.J. Barea, but Barea is too quick for him. Since Barea is also a better finisher and playmaker, give him the edge.

The Mavs don’t have a bench player to match up with Linas Kleiza, and the Nuggets reserves in general have more scorers than their Dallas counterparts.

Prediction

This is the kind of series that the most efficient scoring team will win. Will Carmelo be able to bully the Mavs and put up a parade of points, or will Dirk provide the extra scores to give the Mavs the edge?

With Billups such a calming influence on Denver’s offense, expect Carmelo to continue to shine. May the most explosive offense win. Nuggets in 6.

How the Dallas Mavericks have made me look like a fool.

I've never been a particular fan of the Dallas Mavericks.

Perhaps it was because the competed with my Sacramento Kings early in the decade for the fastest offense.

Maybe its because I thought they were simply stupid in letting Steve Nash walk.

Could be because I was fully behind Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal in 2006, and the Mavs happened to get in the way.

Probably because I was told off my a teacher for making too much noise when the Warriors dispatched the Mavs in 2007. I love an upset (cmon Bulls!)

I never liked Dirk Nowitzki really. Or Jason Terry (likely because a friend never shuts up about him).

And yet, this year, I warmed towards them slightly. I've always been a fan of Jason Kidd. I've followed Jose Barea since one of my favorite writers mentioned him in her column two years ago.

Dirk Nowitzki didn't seem so annoying anymore. I put him in my fantasy team and he delivered. My respect for Jason Terry grew after watching him handle being moved to the bench with the utmost class and saw him flourish there.

I'm still not a fan of Erick Dampier. Or Ryan Hollins, but overall, I've let my grudge against the Mavs go.

But I still didn't respect them as a team. And they have shut me up.

I've included the Mavs in articles all year.

I wrote a piece on who was likely to finish in the 9th spot in the West. I voted for the Mavs.

I wrote a piece on how the Suns could easily overtake the Mavs in the playoff hunt with just two weeks remaining.

I mentioned repeatedly how the Mavs would never last against the Lakers.

I have said how they would not fare well against a Nuggets team...in the first round!

And here we are. The Mavericks have moved into the second round. Last time they did that...it was 2006. Detroit were a powerhouse, Tracy McGrady was spotted on a basketball court and Seattle had a pro bball team...things change.

The Mavs made a great late-season push (ironically, much in the same style the Spurs normally do)

They won 7 of their last 9, only losing twice in April. They surged up the Western Standings and grabbed the 6th seed, along with their 50th win, on the last night of the season.

A lot of people, even a week before the season finished, would have guessed the Mavs would have scraped themselves that high.

But they had drawn the San Antonio Spurs. No they aren't the Spurs we know and love, but they're still not too shabby.

I agreed with most that this would be a hard-fought series, which could even go to seven games, but that the Spurs would come out on top.

Wrong on both accounts. While there are still several series remaining that could easily go all the way, the Mavericks-Spurs matchup lasted just five games.

And they made it clear they are no joke. They are not the same team as last year.

It wasn't a Cleveland-Detroit type beatdown, but the Mavs did prove that they can play, and that they have the pieces to do it.

More importantly though, they showed they can do it as a team.

The Mavs have main men: Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Josh Howard.

Dirk scored 31 in game 5, but went over 20 just one other time.

Jason Terry didn't score over 20 in the series.

Josh Howard had 28 and 25, but also had 7.

It may seem like I'm trying to show these as negatives, but they aren't at all. It showed the Mavs can work together- Dirk no longer has to be everything on the offense.

The bench has shown major improvements, perhaps none more so than J.J Barea. He scored 50 points in the series while dishing 23 assists. And he did it when it was important, he is a great help for the Mavs.

Barea is able to come in for Jason Kidd, which leaves Terry at the 2 spot to help with the scoring load.

If nothing else, the series with the Spurs has been a massive confidence boost. And it is a huge achievement in itself, whatever happens with the Nuggets.

About that...

The Nuggets are rolling. Chauncey Billups was on fire against New Orleans. J.R smith heated up towards the end of the series. It was three's and alley-oops everywhere, they are rolling as well as any team in the playoffs right now.

Can the Mavs slow them down?

My instinct says not really...but I think we've learnt what happens when I bet against Dallas.

I do expect the Mavs to put up more of a fight than the Hornets. Denver is bound to cool off for at least a game or two. And as mentioned earlier, the Mavericks can now spread the scoring load.

Whereas New Orleans had Chris Paul...and kind of David West.

It was well documented how physical Denver was in their first round series. Expect some more of that. In the same way it helped to slow Chris Paul, the Nuggets will use this on Dirk Nowitzki.

The Mavs can bang around too though. Erick Dampier's game is mostly taking up space and making hard fouls. Jason Terry and Josh Howard aren't going to be pushed around.

Whichever team comes out on top, the Mavericks should be proud, and consider this a successful season.

They managed to keep their 50-wins-a-season streak going, they not only made it into the playoffs, but got a decent seeding and caused an upset. And they did this with one of their main guys missing 30 games.

No, they are not contenders and their championship window is closed as firmly as the Suns'.

But a year ago they had been knocked out by the Hornets in a more-than-embarrassing manner. It seemed like the franchise was dead-and-buried.

As much as a few months ago, many (myself included) thought the team was done.

Alas, the Dallas Mavericks made me look like a fool. They could easily do it again.

Heading into their second round matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, the Denver Nuggets will be looking at multiple options to defend the Mavs' best scoring threat, Dirk Nowitzki.

The 7-footer only averaged 19.2 points in the first round and made only one three-pointer in his five games against the Spurs, usually barometers of a Texas-sized failure rather than a success.

He was more assertive on the glass, tallying 8.6 boards per contest, up slightly from his regular season mark of 8.4, something the Nuggets' must be conscious of at all times considering second chance points can serve to be daggers as the game progresses.

The Nuggets will toss out multiple defenders at Dirk to frustrate him and effectively push him off his spots negating any hopes of gaining a favorable position or working himself into a rhythm. 

Here are the options the Nuggets' will be looking at when defending Dirk Nowitzki:

Option 1: Kenyon Martin

Martin is long, athletic, and quick on his toes and can change direction at the same rate as any power forward in the league. If you remember his foot-speed was sufficient enough that George Karl assigned him to guard Kobe Bryant last year in their opening postseason matchup.

In the first-round Martin was able to harass David West enough to the point where he began to grow uncomfortable with his back to the basket and began to rely too much on his fadeaway jumper from the left wing.

If Martin can convince Dirk to abandon his game from 23-feet and out (the three-point line) it will effectively only limit the Mavs' to only one three-point shooter in their starting line-up (Jason Kidd) and permit the quicker Nugget guards to give support to Martin when needed and scramble back to their own man without covering much ground.

Option 2: Chris Andersen

Andersen is a rangy shot-blocker with outstanding reaction and long limbs. That fact that he runs the floor is only a bonus and really helps the Nuggets excel in transition defense.

He finished second in the league in blocked shots despite playing only a shade more than 20 minutes per game and thus far is averaging just less than two blocks per game in the postseason.

However, at times he's extremely aggressive, and Nowitzki is far to skilled and will devour Birdman from the post to the paint.

Andersen is best when he is able to cheat over from his man and send away a shot or two in the paint when his fellow teammates allow their man to drive past them—i.e. the Marcus Camby effect.

Option 3: Nené

With the strength and mass to really create problems for Dirk, he's also deceptively graceful and can hurt Nowitzki on the offensive end as well, should Dirk be forced to guard Nené on a switch or just by simple design.

The fact that he can induce the German into foul trouble is a major advantage, as well as his agile movements around the basket.

The NBA Playoffs are where amazing happens everyday. Good players play great, great players play fantastic. It’s where a buzzer-beater shot to win the game is a highlight forever, not just for the week.

In the playoffs it’s not players that take their teams to the promise land, it's teamwork.    Players putting it all on the line for the most prized trophy in basketball.

The question is who will step up, and who needs to step up for their team to be successful?

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons

 

It may not look like the Cavs need anything, because they’re a pretty stacked team. They almost beat Philly without their stars, and have the best home record in the NBA.

For them to win I think it's key for Daniel Gibson to do great things. He’s had great games for the Cavs in past playoffs games, and I think he needs to do the most he can do when he’s on the court.

He’s not a starter, and I don’t think he should be with the way Mo Williams is playing, but when Mo’s on the bench getting a rest Gibson has got to fill in for that.

I am confident he can do great things for this Cavs team. In the game that LeBron James was sitting, Gibson scored 28 points and had seven assists. He is a talented young point guard and a key for the Cavaliers' success coming off the bench.

As for the Pistons to be successful, the key is Richard Hamilton. Since he has come off  the bench the team has played a lot better.

When Hamilton scores big numbers it heightens their chances of winning and if they have any chance at beating the Cavs he needs to have some major games.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat

 

For the Hawks to be successful and make it all the way I think that Josh Smith needs to play to his mass potential.

He’s a tremendous athlete and is dominant when he drives the lane. If he can improve on his shooting I think the Hawks can be very successful in the playoffs.

They took care of the Heat in the first game and a large part of it was Smith getting fast break dunks Miami couldn’t stop.

If they can continue and do what they did against the Heat, they aren’t just a contender, they’re fully in the hunt.

The Heat were embarrassed by the Hawks on Sunday. This has a lot to do with the team being too dependent on Dwayne Wade.

In order to make it past the first round, they need a few players to be a lot more productive.

First, Michael Beasley needs to be more productive defensively and offensively. They keep switching him from the small forward and power forward positions so he needs to keep Atlanta’s players in check, mainly Josh Smith.

Second, Mario Chalmers needs to play at a high level to set up his players, and when he gets that open look he needs to hit it with as much precision as the shot to take the National Championship into overtime in college.

Last, Daequan Cook needs to find his range and his shot again. He was the All-Stars' three-point champ but has gone cold since. He did this at Ohio State at the end of the year, which was why he was a sixth man and not a starter. He needs to prove he deserves to be in this league.

Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls

For Boston I think that “Big Baby” Davis has to try and fill in Kevin Garnett’s shoes as much as possible.

Don’t get me wrong; he can’t fill in KG’s shoes, but he needs to do as much as he can defensively to give them a chance to win. The main thing he needs to try and make up for is the defensive end.

A lot of people acted surprised the Bulls beat the Celtics in their first game. When you look at their talent it should be no surprise at all.

The two keys to victory is Rookie of the Year Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. Rose was the major reason they won, tying Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for most points in a debut in the playoffs with 36 points.

Why I say Noah is a key is because him and Rose have played in the biggest stage in college. Rose made it to the National Championship game last season and Noah helped his team to two straight.

Pressure doesn’t affect them as it would most young players in the NBA. And if the Bulls win this series it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Orlando Magic

In order for the 76ers to keep winning against the Magic they need to contain Dwight Howard. If they can do that defensively then it will take a team effort to beat this young talented squad.

On the same note, Howard needs to be dominant for the Magic to win. He’s their MVP and needs to carry his team on his back and keep controlling the paint.

They may have lost the first game despite Howard’s strong performance, but it was a close game.

L.A. Lakers vs. Utah Jazz

For the Lakers to keep doing what they’re doing I believe it’s up to Andrew Bynum. With him and Pau Gasol in the middle along with Lamar Odom this is an unstoppable force.

There really isn’t any key for the Lakers because they’re just so talented.

I really don’t think there is anything the Jazz can do to stop the Lakers. They would have to defend every position with perfection. With this Laker team, you just have to pick your poison.

The Nuggets have to continue the run they have started and keep their foot on the gas pedal and they will win this series.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

This is Dirk Nowitzki vs. Tim Duncan and I love the matchup. Duncan is one of the best ever at the power forward position and Nowitzki has been one of the best in the league.

Whoever wins this matchup I believe has the best chance of winning. Its power vs. athleticism and the result is unknown.

To continue my look at the stories of the predicted first-round losers of the NBA Playoffs, here I analyze those Western Conference teams to be ousted in their opening series.

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz are a broken team, literally speaking. Numerous injuries during the 2008-2009 season have made their road to the Playoffs a crooked one, and their journey most certainly will end quickly now that they have arrived at their destination.

Forward Carlos Boozer has been battling a knee issue, guard Deron Williams has probably been himself for about 10 games total, and forward Andrei Kirilenko has continued his mercurial emotional regression. 

Head coach Jerry Sloan has always maintained a stability with the Jazz that has bordered on the predictable. When an opponent plays this team, they know they have to defend for 24 seconds, prepare for precise execution, and maintain a level of play that demands attention to detail and mental toughness.

But this season's version of the Utah club has been anything but predicable, particularly on the defensive end.

Growing up with the Stockton-Malone combination, the outside shooting of Jeff Hornacek, and the interior defense of Eaton (and later Ostertag), it is difficult to picture a Jerry Sloan team that plays so erratically. Their road record is abysmal (15-26), and with the death of owner Larry Miller, the franchise appears more faceless and nondescript than ever. 

The Jazz will only go as far as Williams can take them, and in this case, I don't even see them winning one game against the Lakers. 

Prediction: Lakers in four

(4) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (5) Houston Rockets

The NBA currently has only six true closers. These are the cream of the crop in terms of being able to take over a game by themselves, against any kind of resistance: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Paul Pierce, Chris Paul...and one last quiet professional far more mature than his age who has overcome the questions of his durability to become a true assassin.  

Brandon Roy can get anywhere he wants on a basketball court. His attributes sneak up on you, whether it be his vertical leap or his unnaturally quick first step. Roy knows where he wants to be and will get there efficiently and ruthlessly.

The only hope to contain him is to have on-ball defenders who can slow him down just enough to have hope: Guys like, say, Ron Artest and Shane Battier.

This matchup was the worst Brandon could have hoped for. 

The NBA can do that to you. Just when you think you have it all figured out, there is always one more hoop to jump through, one more mountain to climb.

It appears Roy has almost reached the pinnacle of his profession, but Artest and Battier will do just enough to prevent him from completing the climb.

Prediction: Rockets in six

(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

As long as the Denver Nuggets have George Karl as their coach, Kenyon Martin as a contributor, and Carmelo Anthony as a star, I will always have my doubts. 

To be a winner in the NBA, there is a certain level of professionalism that must be attained and, more importantly, sustained. "Cool" doesn't equal a ring; the game must be respected and the long, arduous journey must be embraced.

I have never felt confident that the version of the Nuggets that has existed since 2003 has the necessary tools to accomplish the ultimate goal of a championship, and despite the addition of Chauncey Billups, this year's model is no different. 

The Nuggets have the look of a collection of playground specialists. Anthony plays the part of the stud scorer, Martin acts as the rugged enforcer, sixth man J.R. Smith is the unconscious gunner, Chris Andersen is the zany energy guy, and Nene is the burly interior scorer. 

The roster is like the Ocean's 11 cast. Everyone is competent, productive, and effective, and the movie will most likely be enjoyable.

In the end, though, there won't be any Oscars to hand out. 

Prediction: Hornets in six

(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

On paper, this series is dead even.

I take that back; the Mavericks probably have the edge in talent. Unfortunately, this is one team where the individual parts may be a deterrent to the qualities of the whole. 

Their most reliable scorer is an undersized sixth man. Their most dependable defender is a backup center. The X-factor has endured a checkered last two years off the court. The team's soul is a porous defender who routinely allows career nights from opposing point guards.

And the supposed best player has seen his production decline in fourth quarters and has routinely shrunk from responsibility during important moments. 

Taken separately, the common belief is that these guys would have absolutely zero chance to knock off a veteran team of champions, even one without a vital scoring option. The doubters refer back to last season, when they folded meekly to the upstart Hornets. 

But for some reason, the Dallas Mavericks appear dangerous in this upcoming battle against a vulnerable former king.  

But then again, for some other reason, these weaknesses keep glaring at me, saying "Don't be fooled."

Prediction: Spurs in 5

After such an exciting regular season, the 2008-2009 NBA playoffs should be one of the best ever.

The playoffs are always the epitome of drama as heroes and villains are forged through stellar or lackluster play, and this season’s edition features nothing but the most talented casts of characters and the most intriguing storylines.

No matter what the outcome of any playoff game, the true winners are the fans—who will be rewarded with nothing but fantastic basketball from now until June.

Here’s what to look for in the West

1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8) Utah Jazz

In past seasons this would be a tooth-and-nail battle, but the Lakers have the Jazz outclassed in many ways.

Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum are long, skilled, versatile big men whose size, speed, and quickness are too much for the landlocked Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. Any screen action or passwork putting pressure on Boozer and Okur to defend the hoop will be an automatic bucket. Plus, while Okur has the strength to discomfort Bynum in the pivot, AB will overwhelm Boozer, while Gasol is too quick for either Jazz big to handle.

On the perimeter, Kobe Bryant is too tall for Ronnie Brewer, too strong for Andrei Kirilenko, too fast for Matt Harpring, and too talented for Kyle Korver. At home, the Jazz will be allowed to be more liberal with their bumping and shoving of Bryant, but in the Staples Center, it’s not unconceivable that Bryant records over 15 free throw attempts a game.

Plus, with Bynum moving Lamar Odom to the bench, and with Shannon Brown providing a nice shot in the arm, the Lakers’ once anemic bench has rebounded into an energetic force.

The Jazz will flex their collective muscle in the paint, where the Lakers bigs don’t have the strength or awareness to push around their Jazz counterparts. However, Utah misses far too many layups to fully realize their strength advantage.

Deron Williams will eat the Lakers’ point guards alive, and Okur’s shooting will give Bynum and Gasol fits, but who else will step up? Andrei Kirilenko, whose been mistake-prone all season? Kyle Korver, whose sweet stroke sours in the postseason?

Los Angeles’ X- Factor: Sasha Vujacic’s shooting.
Utah’s X-Factor: Andrei Kirilenko’s defense.

Prediction: The Lakers have a better chance of winning two games in Utah than the Jazz have of winning one in Hollywood.

Lakers in 5.

2) Denver Nuggets vs. 7) New Orleans Hornets

With the way Chris Paul gets into the paint, he’ll have no problems hypnotizing Nene, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Anderson to the ball and then dropping it off to Hilton Armstrong or Tyson Chandler at the basket for a buffet of layups. The key will be for Denver to trap New Orleans’ ball screens forcing Paul to give up the ball—easier said then done.

As Chris Paul goes, where will the Hornets turn for offense? Can David West take over Kenyon Martin’s sometimes careless, sometimes ruthless defense? If West can’t prove best, the Hornets are in trouble.

Peja Stojakovic is notorious for failing under the bright lights, but perhaps the Nuggets and the first round are a cozy off-broadway play to the bigger spotlights of San Antonio and the Lakers in later playoff rounds. While Peja’s confidence is iffy, Rasual Butler’s totally unreliable.

Meanwhile, the prospect of Peja defending Carmelo Anthony is more frightening than most horror-flicks. Expect the Hornets to stick Butler on Carmelo on the onset, with a liberal dose of James Posey and Stojakovic chasing around Dhantay Jones. Either way, Carmelo has the goods to ratchet up the points.

Chauncey Billups isn’t mistake prone, and because the Nuggets don’t pass too often, Chris Paul’s ability to force turnovers is marginalized. Who do the Hornets have that can match J.R. Smith’s pyromantic scoring tendencies?

Denver’s X-Factor: Kenyon Martin’s defense.
New Orleans’ X-Factor: Peja Stojakovic’ shooting.

Prediction: The Nuggets have too much firepower for the Hornets to overcome.

Nuggets in 6.

3) San Antonio Spurs vs. 6) Dallas Mavericks

A classic tilt that’s lost a bit of luster as each team has begun to decline.

Since the Mavs won’t want to risk Dirk Nowitzki to early foul trouble, Erick Dampier will be asked to defend Tim Duncan. Have Tim Duncan’s injuries sapped him so much that Dampier will be able to bottle him up, or will Duncan expose Dampier to early foul trouble and a seat on the bench. Dampier’s defense is a must because Nowitzki, Brandon Bass, and Ryan Hollins have no chance at slowing down the Big Fundamental.

Tony Parker will likewise leave the Mavs in the dust, and Drew Gooden has the good stuff to make Nowtizki work on defense. Then the questions arise. How will Matt Bonner react to playoff pressure? Will Roger Mason be able to brush off Jason Kidd’s tough-nosed defense? We know Michael Finley’s a big-moment shooter, but can he, Bruce Bowen, and Kurt Thomas fill their share of jumpers over the first 40 minutes? If not, the Spurs might lack the firepower to put away the Mavericks.

When Dallas has the ball, screen/fades involving Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki routinely find open shots. Expect a bevy of screen/rolls attacking the heavy-legged Duncan and Thomas, and the easily confused Gooden.

When isolating, can Josh Howard consistently produce against  Bowen and Ime Udoka? My guess is no to Bowen, yes to Udoka. Will Dirk dominate the able-bodied Bowen, Gooden, and Thomas, or will he be just another jump shooter?

When the Mavs go small, Brandon Bass has too much bounce for Duncan to handle, while Terry and J.J. Barea can jet past Mason and Jacque Vaughn at will.

Both teams are soaring with confidence, after Dallas’ strong close to the regular season, headlined by an impressive fourth quarter to vanquish the Rockets, while the Spurs rode Michael Finley’s heroics to swat the Hornets in their final regular season contest.

San Antonio’s X-Factor: Michael Finley’s outside shooting.
Dallas’ X-Factor: Erick Dampier.

Prediction: No doubt the series will be fun and furious, with Duncan and Dirk doing battle once again. San Antonio’s always had more resolve and heart than Dallas.

Spurs in 7.

4) Portland Trail Blazers vs. 5) Houston Rockets

By far, the most evenly matched and intriguing series in the Western Conference. The winner will be determined by the victor of a number of matchups. Can Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden successfully defend Yao’s post ups?

Much press has been made about Houston’s inability to feed the ball to Yao against fronting defenses, and the vowel-less one certainly has the strength and the endurance to front and shove Yao out of premium post position. If Yao should establish good position in the post, Portland’s well-coordinated double teams can harangue the Ming Man into innumerable turnovers.

However, since Przybilla and Oden are offensive non-factors, Ming will be free to wall off the paint against Portland’s penetrations.

Luis Scola is rugged and strong, but LaMarcus Aldridge is long and quick. The winner of that matchup will go a long way to determining the series.

Ron Artest and Shane Battier will take their turns harassing Brandon Roy so Roy won’t be able to impose his full will on a game. However, Roy’s also an excellent defender who may be able to fluster Artest into his usual quota of mental mistakes. Will Battier and Von Wafer provide more offense than Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw?

The biggest edge the Blazers have is at the point guard position, where Steve Blake has the talent and experience to outduel Aaron Brooks.

Portland’s X-Factor: Rudy Fernandez’ playmaking.
Houston’s X-Factor: Aaron Brooks’ decision making.

Prediction: The Blazers have more firepower than the Rockets, home court advantage, and the maturity to handle the Rockets’ rough stuff. However, they lack experience and the post presence needed to sufficiently challenge Yao on the defensive end where he could be forced into foul trouble. The team with the best playmaker usually wins these battles.

Blazers in 7.

The best time of year has arrived at last. You can have your opening day, your March Madness, your Super Bowl. The best time of the year is the NBA playoffs, especially the first weekend of the first round.

Eight games in two days, nonstop action is awesome. Plus, any sadness that the NBA season is over is mitigated by the return of the glorious warm weather.

And if you're thinking to yourself, "But I live in a warm weather climate," well then isn't your life just perfect?

Anyways, I will be breaking the playoffs down, round by round, conference by conference. We'll start with the Western Conference first round, mostly because I've paid more attention to the West, but also because it should be more of a contest.

Without further ado:

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) Utah Jazz

It was pretty clear that the Lakers didn't want to play the Jazz. I think they're ready to beat anyone, and they should be, but the Jazz play a physical game that could place some strain on the Lakers, particularly Kobe who's coming off of a run to the Finals last year, the Olympics, and then a full 82 game season this year.

While Kobe's not an old man, he's no spring chicken, and he's still got that finger injury that he never got fixed.

The Jazz are coming off of a strange year. Once thought to be sleepers for the '09 title, the injuries/shenanigans of Carlos Boozer, and a woeful road record have left them as an afterthought to the NBA playoffs, which is strange, given that they've added a talent in Paul Millsap, and haven't really lost anyone of importance. 

As bad as the Jazz are on the road, they're that good on the road. The absence of home court means they have to steal a game in the Staples Center, and it's hard to imagine them doing that against one of the best teams in the NBA.

PG: Derek Fisher vs. Deron Williams

Really no contest, and one of the few matchups that the Jazz have in their favor. The young, physically imposing Williams should have his way with the older, slower Fisher.

Fisher is no slouch on the defensive end, but he's going to have his work cut out for him trying to stop Williams from doing a lot of damage.

Winner: Deron Williams

SG: Kobe Bryant vs. Ronnie Brewer

I like Ronnie Brewer. He's got decent speed, is pretty good on defense, and is a solid shooting guard. Pity for him he's going against the best shooting guard of the last decade, one who's deadly on both ends of the floor.

With Kobe likely focusing on defending Williams, Brewer should have a chance to make his mark on the series. But can you upset a No. 1 seed with Ronnie Brewer handling the scoring? I don't think so.

Winner: Kobe Bryant

SF: Trevor Ariza vs. C.J. Miles

Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated defenders in the league today. Though his numbers from three-point land aren't spectacular, it seems like every time I see the Lakers, he makes a timely three. With him and Kobe guarding the best wingmen, they're a formidable duo, and it's going to take more than C.J. Miles to put pressure on them.

Winner: Trevor Ariza

PF: Pau Gasol vs. Carlos Boozer

One of the most intriguing matchups of the first round. A physical low post scorer against a finesse shooter and skilled passer. Gasol's defense against the much more physical Celtics in last year's finals was one of the reasons the Lakers seemed unable to generate much firepower, and stop the Celtics, and it could be a factor here.

I don't see Pau Gasol giving Boozer much trouble when he tries to post up, but Gasol's reach could help him. With Boozer on defense, he's more than capable of handling Gasol, but he will be helpless when Gasol is able to make quick passes to a streaking Ariza or Bynum.

As far as who is going to have more impact on the series, I think it is going to be Boozer. He's got a new contract to think about, and he's got Paul Millsap just waiting to show him up to grab the Power Forward spot.

If Gasol comes out swinging, this could be a four or five-game series, but I think he'll be outmuscled.

Winner: Carlos Boozer

C: Andrew Bynum vs. Mehmet Okur

This provides an interesting contrast as well. As different as Gasol and Boozer are, Okur and Bynum are even more so. Bynum is just a low-post presence, while Okur lacks in that area, but he's a great perimeter guy.

Look to see the two guys switching up on defense. If I were Phil Jackson, I would put Gasol on Okur, start Odom on Boozer, and let those two play their games.

Bynum on the bench could provide a good boost, especially if he comes in when Boozer and/or Okur are on the bench.

I think Bynum will have a chance to make his mark on the series, but I'm not sure he's ready to do it. If he's getting muscled by someone like Boozer and/or Millsap, then he could be hesitant given his injury problems.

While I've always been an Okur fan, I think the nod has to go to the true center.

Winner: Andrew Bynum

Bench

The Lakers used to have one of the deepest benches in the league, and Odom coming off of it certainly helps the second unit. After Odom, it gets pretty thin, with a streaky Farmar, even streakier Vujacic, and the seldom seen Luke Walton.

Utah boasts a guy who will probably be starting for them next year in Millsap, a sniper in Kyle Korver and one of the most complete players off the bench in Andrei Kirilenko.

Utah's depth will be a major reason they can stretch the Lakers to six or seven games, but they need to take advantage of their matchup advantages, particularly when Kobe is out. If AK-47, can slow down Kobe, the Jazz should be able to make the series interesting. Otherwise, it will be a joke.

Pick: Lakers in Six

(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

This should be a doozy. A transcendent point guard and an All-Star forward vs. an All-Star point guard and a transcendent forward. A former first-round doorman vs. a team trying to prove last year wasn't a fluke.

One team pulled off a monster trade, one didn't and you could argue both came out better because of it.

For the last two seasons, the Western conference champion has started their run against the Denver Nuggets. The "I shoot then you shoot" of the Iverson-Anthony combo didn't do justice to either one's talents, and it got them nowhere.

Now, the game's most selfish player has been replaced by one of the most unselfish, and Denver seems poised to advance for the first time in 'Melo's career. Denver also lost a defensive rock in the paint, but added one of the game's most mercurial talents in Chris Andersen.

New Orleans is another low-seeded team still coping with the disappointments of a season in which they were picked to be a sleeper, but Chris Paul has spent the season redefining his position.

PG: Chauncey Billups vs. Chris Paul

What Billups has done to this Denver team has gone largely unnoticed, yet people are not taking them seriously to come out of the West. Partly because of the Lakers, but partly because people are ready to see if Carmelo can join his other All-Star draftmates and finally advance. Billups figures to play a big part in this because of the nature of his game.

He can distribute, he can shoot, he can play defense, in roughly that order.

Unfortunately, the man on the other end of the ball could end up as the best to play his position. It's a case of "everything you can do I can do better," because Chris Paul does everything Billups can do to an amazing level.

Winner: Chauncey Billups

SG: Dahntay Jones vs. Rasual  Butler

I would consider J.R. Smith the official shooting guard for the Nuggs, but according to their depth chart, Jones is number one. I don't know too much about him, but I know Rasual Butler can be a threat.

He's not a game changer by any means, but with Chris Paul giving him great looks, and with the attention given to Paul and West, he should have some room to operate.

If the Hornets are going to advance, Butler needs to make his mark on the series.

Winner: Rasual Butler

SF: Carmelo Anthony vs. Peja Stojakavic

Peja is without question on the downside of his career, and 'Melo is still finding exactly what his peak is. This is make or break time for 'Melo. Without Iverson, he needs to take control of the offense, and he needs to show the team that he is the superstar he's billed to be.

He's got the talents to do it, and he talks like he's motivated to do it, but if the Hornets advance, the blame will be on no one but Anthony, and the Nuggets might start preparing for a future without him if he can't deliver.

Peja has much lower expectations, and if he can hit the corner three, and stay out of his own way on defense, he should add to the Hornets and not take anything away.

Winner: Carmelo Anthony

PF: Kenyon Martin vs. David West

Another intriguing matchup. Martin has shown flashes in his career, but is far from a given at his position. David West, on the other hand, is a bona fide All-Star, and a physical low-post presence combined with a sweet shooting stroke.

The offense runs through him and Paul, so the two of them need to keep producing for the entire series. West is more than capable, but the question is, can he sustain it for an entire series?

He did well against the Mavericks last year, but during the Spurs series, he shot .565, .182, .526, .267, .640, .286, and .421 across the seven games, not exactly a model of consistency.

He's going to do better than that, especially with the Hornets situation at center.

Winner: David West

C: Nene vs. Tyson Chandler

This is where the series will be made for the Nuggets. You know what you're getting from 'Melo and Billups, but Nene needs to work hard on both ends of the floor.

With Chandler banged up, suddenly Chris Paul's favorite alley-oop target isn't there, and suddenly the paint isn't locked down on defense. A less-than-100 percent Chandler, combined with Melvin Ely and Hilton Armstrong, means that Nene needs to make a difference down low, which he is more than capable of, given his performance over the last month of the season.

In April, Nene is shooting better than 60 percent from the field , better than 70 percent from the free throw line, and averaging 7.4 rebounds and a block per game. If he can keep it up, the Nuggets should advance.

Winner: Nene

Bench

New Orleans is frightfully thin, with the exception of James Posey. Antonio Daniels and Ely/Armstrong are far apart from their starter counterparts. Julian Wright is talented, but he won't be able to do much this series.

Denver on the other hand, has sharpshooting J.R. Smith coming off of the bench, not to mention a sparkplug defensive player in Chris Andersen, and Linas Kleiza provides a multi-faceted attack as well.

Denver's depth should give them the edge, because West and Paul can't play all 48 minutes.

Winner: Denver

Pick: Nuggets in Five

(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have closed the season with a flourish, or so I'm told, I don't follow them all that closely. The Spurs have limped to the finish, which stands in stark contrast to how they usually finish the season, playing their best basketball.

Both of these teams have will have a chance to extend their window by at least a week, a the expense of slamming the other's shut.

For the last few years, the hierarchy in the West has always been Spurs, Mavs, Suns. The Suns are stuck in third place as far as that goes, and now the Mavs have a chance to climb to the top, possibly for the last time.

Ginobili has always been a Mavs killer, and with his absence and Duncan's knees, the Spurs are as ripe for the plucking as they have always been.

PG: Tony Parker vs. Jason Kidd

Old-school vs. new school. For two people who play the same position, the two couldn't have more opposite games. With Manu out, Parker must be the first or second option on offense, while Kidd is often fourth or fifth.

We all know that Parker will probably have a field day on Kidd on the offensive end. His speed can't be matched by Kidd, and any help the Mavs will give Kidd will only open the window for another shooter to bomb the Mavs from long range.

Kidd needs to do exactly what he has been doing. Push the ball in transition, set up Dirk, Terry and Howard, and make the open three when given the space. If the Mavs can find a way to slow down Parker, the Spurs simply don't have enough firepower.

Winner: Tony Parker

SG: Roger Mason Jr. vs. Antoine Wright

While Roger Mason's late game heroics have made SportsCenter all year long, what he does in the other 47 minutes can't be overlooked as well. Simply put, he's a smart player. I had the privilege of watching him go overlooked on the Wizards last year, and his play this year hasn't been surprising.

Mason's strength lies in the fact that he doesn't try to overstep his bounds. He doesn't take shots he has no business taking, which is more than can be said of a lot of NBA player. Unfortunately, most of those other players aren't on the Spurs.

Antoine Wright is at his best when he is acting as foil to Josh Howard. When Howard is hot in the first, Wright needs to be lockdown defensively. As Howard cools off, Wright needs to be driving to the cup, drawing fouls.

Wright shouldn't have many defensive problems with Mason himself, but he needs to be careful about shifting to Parker and leaving Mason open. The Spurs have won four rings on the drive-and-kick offense, and this is no time to let them take advantage.

I think Wright is much more capable of leaving his mark on the series than Mason.

Winner: Antoine Wright

SF: Michael Finley vs. Josh Howard

Ah, how fitting. The Mavs' small forward of the past against the small forward of the present (and hopefully, future). Josh Howard has been playing on a leg and a wrist that will go under the knife after the season (hopefully not until late June).

It's been said ad nauseum, but Josh Howard is the X-Factor. His return and subsequent stellar play have everything to do with the Mavericks hot finish.

Michael Finley's role is far more reduced, but no less important. He needs to hit jumpers. Plain and simple. When the defense collapses on Duncan or Parker, he's one of the few that will be taking that shot.

But no one on this postseason, save maybe Kobe, has more riding on this postseason than Howard. Short of an admission that he is a cokehead, Howard has hit the bottom, and has nowhere to go but up. Not that it's going to be easy, but it's possible.

Winner: Josh Howard

PF: Tim Duncan vs. Dirk Nowitzki

As far as star power goes, this is it for first-round matchups. Besides LeBron and Pierce, there isn't another matchup that features two sure hall-of-famers going at it.

At this point in their careers, Duncan is slowing down fast, and Dirk is still plugging along. Of course, Timmy can still relax on a mattress of championship rings (at least, that's how it feels) when he's done. Dirk still has work to do.

Dirk's offensive game is still unparalleled, his one-legged Euro fadeaway is near unguardable (though Carl Landry managed to block one last night), and he can still get to the rim. Duncan, on the other hand, will break you down with his arsenal of low-post moves, and he can hit the elbow jumper and rebound better than anyone.

During this series, Tony Parker can take up most of Duncan's slack on offense, but Dirk's 20-plus points are going to be hard to replace, even with their depth. Dirk needs to have a strong series, otherwise next year's Mavericks are going to look very different, maybe not in a good way.

Winner: Dirk Nowitzki

C: Matt Bonner vs. Erick Dampier

There's not many centers in the league that I would pick Dampier over, but Matt Bonner is one of them. While he is a good outside shooter, he doesn't have the low-post prescience to compete with Dampier, and that speaks more to his shortcomings (read: he's a whitey with red hair) than to Dampier's strengths.

This hasn't killed the Spurs because of Duncan's low-post dominance, and his ability to play a passable center.

Dampier needs to show up for every other game as opposed to every four or five, and Dallas should be okay at the center. Dampier does tend to get in foul trouble, and if Parker is particularly aggressive it may come down to that, but that's where Dallas' bench comes in.

Winner: Erick Dampier

Bench

Dallas has emerged as having a very deep bench. Jason Terry aside, J.J. Barea, Brandon Bass, James Singleton, Ryan Hollins and Gerald Green are capable of making their own marks on the game.

What to say about Jason Terry that hasn't been said already? Your Sixth Man of the Year, instant offense, instant energy and a cold-blooded shooter to boot. With Terry in at crunch time, the Mavs are looking pretty good in close games.

Let's go back to Brandon Bass. His ferocity and athleticism should play a huge part for the Mavs during this series. Big, athletic guys have always given the Spurs trouble, and that's Bass to a T.

If he can lock down Duncan for a few minutes, throw some crowd-pleasing dunks, and make the occasional elbow or baseline jumper, he could be a huge part of the Mavs living to fight again in the second round.

The Spurs have George Hill (who might be ready in a few years), Ime Udoka (who isn't ready after a few years), and Fabricio Oberto (who lost his starting gig to a big, red-deaded seven-footer who can't rebound). 'Nuff said.

Winner: Dallas

Pick: Mavericks in Six

(4) Portland Trailblazers vs. (5) Houston Rockets

Interestingly enough, this matchup was decided before the Blazers/Nuggets game, all that remained was to see who would get home court.

The person who has the most to lose in this series won't even be on the court. Tracy McGrady. If the Rockets beat the young, upstart, Blazers, the team that people are saying are the only challengers to the Lakers in the West, then people McGrady loses a lot of value.

Teams that could have been thinking about taking his contract in a trade will think twice, given his injury history and the economy, and the Rockets will view him as the guy who was holding them back.

Rockets fans can envision a world where Yao and Artest can take them beyond the first round, and if they can dump McGrady for another, better free agent in 2010.

The Blazers can shed the ghosts of the past, and accelerate their plans as the team of the future, and with Kobe age, the decline of the Suns, Spurs and Mavs, and Hornets' owner George Shinn's notorious penny-pinching, they could be poised to take over the west.

PG: Steve Blake vs. Aaron Brooks

Who knew at the beginning of the year that it would turn out like this? Steve Blake has experiences a mini- resurgence and has a young heir in Jerryd Bayless to take the reins, and he has played perfectly within himself to help his team be the best they can be.

Besides hitting the occasional three and making some end-of-game free throws, not much of the shooting burden will fall on Blake.

Aaron Brooks started the year second on the depth chart, and filled in so well during Rafer Alston's injury, that the Rockets were willing to trade Alston to give Brooks the reins. He's capable of a breakout game or two on the offensive end, and he runs the offense nicely.

Winner: Aaron Brooks

SG: Brandon Roy vs. Ron Artest

A great matchup. Roy has emerged into a genuine assassin, and probably has the most complete game of any player not named Kobe in the game today. He can kill you on both ends of the floor, and from every spot on the floor. He's capable of miracle shots, momentum killers and boosters, and has a very bright future in the NBA.

But can Ron Artest stop Roy? Between Battier and Artest, Roy has to deal with the two most talented perimeter defenders in the game. As the primary offensive threat, Roy will have to be careful and pick his moments, but he's smart enough to do that.

If Artest can do damage on the offensive end, the Rockets could really be onto something. With McGrady out, Artest needs to provide those points, and he needs to be smart about his shots, something he sometimes gets away from.

If he gets rattled and start jacking up bad threes, especially if Roy starts abusing him it will be very easy for Houston to come unglued and suffer yet another first round defeat.

Winner: Brandon Roy

SF: Nicholas Batum vs. Shane Battier

This is the chance for Nicholas Batum to make a name for himself, other than being the French guy who isn't Tony Parker or Boris Diaw. If he can score with regularity, that spreads Artest and Battier apart, and will open things up for Portland's primary weapon, Roy.

Battier has both the easiest and most difficult job of the game. He has to play good D, and make the open three when called to do so. But he has to play good D against someone like Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge, and he has to do it well.

Winner: Shane Battier

PF: LaMarcus Aldrige vs. Luis Scola

The two frontcourt matchups in this series are the most intriguing pair. Aldridge has the potential to be one of the top power forwards in the game, combining a pretty decent low-post arsenal with a sweet jump shot, and a pretty good skill set. His shot is streak at times, and he tends to slack on defense, but he is rapidly improving.

With Scola, you have a "sophomore" who is one of the most physical players playing in the game. A good shooter, a great rebounder, he will give Aldridge all the bumping he can handle, and then some. It will be interesting to see those two go at it, and to see who comes out on top, as this matchup may very well decide a series that goes seven games. 

Winner:LaMarcus Aldridge

C: Joel Pryzbilla vs. Yao Ming

With his low-post skill set, the Trailblazers are going to need every single foul they can get. The problem with Greg Oden is that he might give too many of those away.

Yao can make anyone pay from anywhere inside of 18-feet, and he has managed to stay healthy this season. The pessimist in me says that this means he's facing an injury in this series, which will spell doom for the Rockets.

The optimist in me says that playing more than 50 games (77 to be exact) for the first time since 2004-05 will give him the confidence he needs to break through to the next step.

If Yao can get the Portland big men in foul trouble, this will place an extraordinary strain on their reserves, and he could have a huge series.

Winner: Yao Ming

Bench

Two good benches. Portland's features two people that could be starters on a number of other teams in Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw, as well as Greg Oden. Greg Oden has a real chance to make a splash if he can stay out of foul trouble and make life difficult for the Yao.

Houston's features a promising point guard in Kyle Lowry, who has started to usurp minutes from Aaron Brooks, and two possible difference makers in Von Wafer and Carl Landry.

Portland's bench should have the edge here, but if they cede that to Houston, then they won't go very far.

Winner: Portland

Pick: Portland in Six

See you tomorrow with the Eastern Conference breakdown.

For more Dallas Mavericks related material, see my blog.