Sun Belt Football

When: Dec. 20, 2011 | 8:00 PM ET

Where: St. Petersburg, FL

Betting Line: Florida Int'l (-4)

Predicted Outcome: Florida Int'l 31, Marshall 13

Florida Int'l Breakdown

The Golden Panthers started the season 5-4, but won their last three games to finish the regular season a school best 8-4 and earn a bowl bid. They rank between 67th and 70th (out of 120 teams) in passing yards, rushing yards, and total points per game, but their offensive game has been much better over the past three games.

Senior quarterback Welsey Carroll and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, two of the best players the school has ever had, look to cap off their careers with a second straight bowl game.

The strong point of the team is their defense, which ranks 16th in the nation giving up 19.4 points per game and had held their opponents to 20 or less in seven straight.

Marshall Breakdown

Marshall ranks better than FIU in passing offense, rushing offense, and points per game, but they don't have a strong D to balance it out.

They started 4-6 and had to win two very close games against Memphis and East Carolina to finish second in the weaker east division of Conference USA.

They gave up an average of eight points per game more then they scored, but surprisingly they force many turnovers. They ranked second in conference USA with 28 turnovers forced and are led by defensive end Vin Curry who was the conference's defensive player of the year. He leads the team with 11 sacks, 21 tackles for a loss, six forced fumbles and three blocked kicks. For Marshall to have a chance at victory, Curry will need to step up big.

Game Breakdown

The Thundering Herd will face one of the best defenses they've seen all season. They have an inexperienced freshman quarterback and an offense that has struggled greatly. Florida Int'l has the better and more experienced offense and defense, and are playing in their home state. Expect them to dominate Marshall from start to finish and take home their second straight postseason trophy and improve on the best record in school history

Florida International takes on Marshall on Tuesday in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl St. Petersburg. FIU is 8-4 in the Sun Belt and Marshall is 6-6 in Conference USA. Vegas currently has the Golden Panthers as a four point favorite over the Thundering Herd.

There are two players that you need to know, FIU receiver T.Y. Hilton and Marshall defensive end Vinny Curry.

Hilton is 50 yards away from a 1,000 yard season, as well as 111 yards rushing. He is also a threat in the return game, amassing 512 kickoff return yards and 186 punt return yards including one, 97-yarder that he returned for a touchdown.

His 201 yards and two touchdowns against Louisville earlier this season were both career highs. Hilton has scored a touchdown in his past three games.

Curry is second in the country in tackles for a loss and has 11 sacks on the season which is sixth. He also has three blocked kicks and six forced fumbles.

Unfortunately for Marshall, the team outside of him is nothing to write home about. The Thundering Herd are only scoring 22 points per game which is 98th in the country, while giving up 30. When this team loses, it typically loses in a big way.

Florida International has relied on defense to get to eight wins. Opponents have only scored 20 or more points four times all season while scoring 26 points per game.

Between Hilton and running back Kedrick Rhodes, who is averaging 93 yards per game on the ground, this game will be too much for an anemic Marshall offense. FIU should cover comfortably.

It's possible you still enjoyed yourself for a little while if you decided that you were too cool to watch the MAC, the WAC, the Sun Belt and the Mountain West in order to save TV time for the better bowls.

Then, when you heard about how those games ended, you threw a tantrum and decided to never be too cool for anything again.

Because the little bowls gave us excitement to kick off bowl season.

The number of combined points exceeded 46 in each game.

And while Temple blew out Wyoming in the opener, the final two games of the day had fans biting their nails.

Louisiana-Lafayette and San Diego State didn't sound like the most intriguing match-up. But Ragin' Cajun fans packed the Superdome, which made the New Orleans Bowl feel like a home game.

The Cajuns controlled most of the game. Darryl Surgent returned a punt 87 yards to the end zone and at one point Lafayette led 19-3.

But the Aztecs stormed back and Ryan Lindley hit Colin Lockett for a touchdown with 40 seconds left to give SDSU a 30-29 lead.

San Diego State's two-point conversion was nullified by a penalty (on the receiver who caught the ball) so Lafayette took over at their own 18 with 30 seconds to play.

After finding Javone Lawson for 13 yards, quarterback Blaine Gautier escaped the pocket and fired a 26-yard completion to Lawson.

A pass to Harry Peoples and a penalty on the Aztecs for trying to draw a false start set up Brett Baer for a 50-yard field goal.

Lafayette's kicking struggled all game but the snap and hold were good and Baer's kick squeaked through the uprights to light up the crowd and give the Cajuns a win for the record books.

Much like the New Orleans Bowl, Utah State fans turned Bronco Stadium into a home game-like atmosphere. Ohio fans were largely absent, as a small school across the country from Boise won't travel well.

Utah State dominated early and they led 23-10 in the third after Michael Smith's second touchdown run.

Ohio struck back though. After a brilliant touchdown catch by LaVon Brazill (in double coverage), the Bobcats were within a touchdown.

In the fourth, Ohio had 4th and 6 and 45 seconds left when Tyler Tettleton found Brazill on a lob pass for what was originally ruled a touchdown.

After review, however, they spotted the ball inside the 1 and Tettleton scrambled into the end zone with 14 seconds left.

Bobcats stormed the turf, while fans (those that were there) rejoiced in the stands.

Both games, though featuring less prestigious squads, gave us the thing we really wanted for Christmas: Bowl dramatics.

Maybe Florida International and Marshall will be a game to watch. 

This upcoming Tuesday, the Florida International Golden Panthers, out of the Sun Belt Conference will look to keep their season-ending winning streak alive when they tangle with the Conference USA’s Marshall Thundering Herd in this year’s Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl in St. Petersburg, Fla.

The kickoff for this one is slated for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

FIU’s bowl eligibility was somewhat in doubt this year after a mid-season slump in which it dropped three of four games, leaving the team 5-4 straight-up with three games left to play. The Golden Panthers quickly righted the ship with a 41-7 pasting of Florida Atlantic as 17.5-point home favorites on Nov. 12 to spark a three-game rally in which they outscored their opponents by a combined score of 100-42.

FIU finished the regular season 8-4 SU and was 6-6 against the spread. It finished fourth in the Sun Belt with a 5-3 SU record in conference play.

The strong point of this Panthers’ team this season has been a shutdown defense that finished the year ranked 16th in the nation in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 19.4 points a game. Since getting tagged with 34 points in an 18-point loss to Arkansas State on Oct.18 as a 3.5-point road underdog, FIU has given-up an average of just 14.2 points in its last five games.

One injury note; Panthers quarterback Jake Medlock missed the final game of the season after hurting his shoulder in Week 12 and remains questionable at this time.

Marshall’s journey to this bowl game was even more perilous considering it needed victories in its last two games just to qualify with an overall record of 6-6 SU (7-5 ATS). It squeaked by Memphis, 23-22, as a 13.5-point road favorite on Nov.17 and needed overtime to get by East Carolina, 34-27, as a one-point home favorite in the season finale.

The Herd finished the season second in C-USA’s East Division at 5-3 SU.

The primary reason for the Herds’ struggles this year has been an inconsistent offense that has averaged just 22 points a game and only managed to score 30 or more points twice this year.

Marshall’s defense has also been sketchy as best, giving-up an average of 30.2 points a game, which is ranked 84th in Division IA.

Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl Odds

FIU opened as a five-point favorite and is currently favored by four, according to college football odds. The total line opened at 51 but has dropped to 48.5 points.

The game spread should remain steady, but the total line could continue to drop a bit if the early money trends on the ‘under’ persist.

Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl Betting Trends

The Golden Panthers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of their last eight games overall.

The Thundering Herd are 6-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of their last six bowl games and in four of their last five games overall.

2011 Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl Predictions

Both these team’s current form and past trends favor a low-scoring contest, making the best bet in this matchup the ‘under’ considering the current 48.5-point line. It remains high enough despite the drop from its open.

If you play a side in this game as well, stick with FIU’s defense to carry the team to a win that covers the four points.

Prediction: FIU 24, Marshall 16

Doc Moseman is the owner of Doc’s Sports football picks Web site.

The loss of Gus Malzahn was a foregone conclusion, but that hardly makes his departure any easier for Auburn fans to stomach. 

One of the best assistant coaches in the business was going to be ripped from the Tigers sidelines at some point. It seems as though that time is now as reports are coming in that he will be the next head coach of the Arkansas State Red Wolves. 

James Bryant of AStateNation tweeted the news on Tuesday evening. 

KATV News in Arkansas stated that the 2010 Broyles Award winner is currently making $1.3 million annually at Auburn. One would have assumed that the Red Wolves' contract would be significantly north of that figure. 

Malzahn is a native of the state, but is in high demand as one of the most coveted offensive minds in the game, and was courted heavily last year by Vanderbilt and Maryland. As it seems, he will be taking a hit to the wallet by getting a team of his own. 

The Birmingham News reports the deal with Arkansas State is for $850,000 a year. It seems that it is worth coaching closer to his home and having the reigns of his own team. 

There is no word yet as to whether Malzahn will travel to help coach the team as Auburn plays in the Chick-fil-A Bowl game against Virginia on New Year's Eve.

While Auburn has taken a hit on offense, you have to consider the turnover of seasoned starters on that side of the ball where the team suffered.

Malzahn is still considered one of the most prolific minds without a team of his own, and now Arkansas State has him. There is much to celebrate when you are a Red Wolves supporter. For once, Auburn has lost out to a smaller program.

Follow @gabezal 

Author's Note: This is the fifth in a five-part series detailing coaches who deserve Coach of the Year Award consideration for the jobs they have done this season in turning around once-dismal programs. Part I can be found here. Part 2 can be found here. Part 3 can be found here. Part 4 can be found here.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves share the state of Arkansas with the Arkansas Razorbacks, a powerful program in the SEC.  The fact that both schools are located in Arkansas is pretty much the only similarity between the two programs.  The Razorbacks have a long history of football success, while the Red Wolves have never finished above .500.

Both of the past two seasons, A State has finished with a 4-8 record and was very much a cupcake that other teams scheduled in order to get an easy win.  Coach Steve Roberts' nine-year tenure as A State's head coach ended after last season, as he was fired and replaced by offensive coordinator Hugh Freeze.

Looks like that was a pretty good move for the Red Wolves, as the team is currently 8-2 and in sole possession of first place in the Sun Belt Conference.  Considering the Red Wolves usually are not anywhere close to winning the Sun Belt, Coach Freeze's first year is going pretty well, to put it mildly.

Last season, the nation was introduced to Coach Mike Haywood, then the head coach at Miami (OH), who took the RedHawks from double-digit losses the previous season to double-digit wins and a MAC title last season.  He was hailed as a coaching phenom and quickly become a hot commodity amongst much bigger programs searching for a new head coach.

Hugh Freeze has arguably done an even more impressive job this season than Haywood did last season.  After all, the RedHawks have had football success much more recently than A State, who hasn't had much success at the FBS level...ever.

To put it bluntly, prior to this season the Red Wolves simply had no idea how to win at the FBS level.  And they hadn't been all that good at the whole winning thing even when they played at the I-AA level, where they hadn't had anything resembling success since the mid 80's.

Not only has Coach Freeze taught the Arkansas State football team how to win, he has also made exceptional players out of unheralded recruits.  QB Ryan Aplin was a lightly-recruited two-star prospect coming out of high school.  The Red Wolves' starting quarterback now has a pretty good shot at winning Sun Belt MVP this season, as he leads the team in both passing and rushing and has 21 combined touchdowns.   

Barring a major collapse, Arkansas State will win the Sun Belt title this year.  For a program that has never had a winning season, that's a pretty big deal.  Coach Freeze will likely win the Sun Belt Coach of the Year award this season.

Honestly, for teaching a program how to be successful that literally had never been so before, Coach Hugh Freeze also deserves the Paul "Bear" Bryant national Coach of the Year award.

Author's Note: This is the second in a five-part series detailing coaches who deserve Coach of the Year Award consideration for the jobs they have done this season in turning around once-dismal programs. Part I can be found here.

The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns currently have eight wins, with one regular season game left to play. The last time the team had that many wins in a season was 1993. That was also the only other time in the last 20 years that ULL has finished with more than six wins.

Although the Ragin' Cajuns have been playing football at the FBS (formerly I-A) level since 1978, the team has never made a bowl game.

First-year head coach Mark Hudspeth has the team positioned to end that bowl drought this season.

Under Hudspeth, the team has experienced a coming-of-age, as they have begun to shake off the mediocrity that has plagued them in recent seasons. Out of the last 10 seasons, four of them ended with six wins (but no bowl game), while the rest were all losing seasons.

This season, the Ragin' Cajuns have finally gotten over the hump, and appear headed for their first FBS-level bowl game. They haven't guaranteed themselves a bowl yet, because the Sun Belt only has two bowl tie-ins, and if Western Kentucky beats Arkansas State and those two teams win the rest of their games, ULL would finish third in the conference and would have to hope for an at-large bid to  a bowl.

The turnaround is due in large part to the efforts of Hudspeth, who is doing an awful lot of things right in his first year as the head coach of the Ragin' Cajuns. His players believe in him, and in themselves. 

During a Sun Belt Conference game against Troy earlier this season, starting quarterback (and arguably the team's best player) Blaine Gautier was injured. Gautier is not only the team's leading passer, but also is second on the team in rushing yards. However, Hudspeth simply plugged in Chris Masson and the Ragin' Cajuns won again.

Not only do Hudspeth's players believe in him, but so do the team's fans. Last season the team averaged a measly 17,383 fans in attendance per game. This season, the lowest attendance for any ULL home game was 26,339.

Hudspeth has turned the Ragin' Cajuns into a team to be reckoned with, and has managed to build strong fan support for the team as well.

Any coach who can make believers out of a team with no history and a fanbase historically lacking reasons to cheer deserves some serious consideration for Coach of the Year.

In 2002, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won the FCS football championship (formerly known as I-AA).  A few short years later, the program decided to move up to the FBS level.  Since that ascension, few things have gone right for the Hilltoppers. During the program's first three years at the FBS level (2008-2010 seasons), Western Kentucky managed only four wins against 32 losses, with two of those wins coming against FCS teams Eastern Kentucky and Murray State.

Through the first four games of this season, the futility seemed destined to continue, as the Hilltoppers started 0-4, including an embarrassing 28-point loss to FCS team Indiana State.  The only question seemed to be whether Western Kentucky would once again go winless, as it did in the 2009 season.

Four games later, the Hilltoppers' season has taken a rather unexpected turn.  Led by Senior running back Bobby Rainey, the team has reeled off four straight wins, including a 19-point victory over conference front-runner Louisiana-Lafayette.  Western Kentucky is currently in third place in the Sun Belt, and only half a game behind second place ULL.  The Hilltoppers' only conference loss is a narrow four-point defeat to current conference leaders Arkansas State.

Which begs a question that seemed absolutely ludicrous only a month ago: Can the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers make it to a bowl game for the first time since moving up to the FBS level?

At 4-4, the Hilltoppers only need to win two of their last four games in order to become bowl-eligible.  Although an away game against LSU seems like a pretty certain loss, there are still three winnable games left against Sun Belt Conference opponents FIU, North Texas, and Troy.  Of those three teams, only FIU currently has a winning record.

Of course, being bowl-eligible and actually making it to a bowl are two different things, and this could very well wind up being the case with Western Kentucky this season.  The Sun Belt has only two guaranteed bowl tie-ins, the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl and the GoDaddy.com Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.  If WKU does indeed finish at 6-6, they would in all likelihood be third in the Sun Belt, behind Arkansas State and ULL.  Would any bowl be willing to take the third-place team from the Sun Belt as an at-large?  Probably not.

Now, if the Hilltoppers can win-out in conference play, they will at the very least be tied for second in the conference, having only one conference loss.  Since Arkansas State and ULL have yet to play each other, it is guaranteed that at the end of conference play either Arkansas State will have at least one loss or ULL will have at least two losses, giving a 7-1 WKU team either a share of first or a solid hold on second place.

Regardless of what occurs elsewhere in the conference, the fact that the words "bowl-eligible" and "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers" are even being mentioned together is quite a feat, and shows how times are changing in Bowling Green, Kentucky.

Believe it or not, Louisiana-Lafayette of the Sun Belt Conference is bowl eligible.  The Ragin' Cajuns have won six straight, and the most difficult opponent left on their schedule is lowly Arizona (1-5).  The Sun Belt Conference has never had a ranked team in the 11 years they have sponsored football, but UL-Lafayette is knocking on the door.

UL-Lafayette still has some challenges left.

To close out their conference schedule, they go to Jonesboro to face Arkansas State (4-2).  The Red Wolves are currently undefeated in Sun Belt play, and for a team at their level, they had respectable performances against Illinois (a 33-15 loss) and Virginia Tech (26-7 loss).

Then, to close their regular season, they go to Tucson to face Arizona.  Although Arizona is struggling, UL-Lafayette doesn't have the caliber of talent that Arizona has, and the game will be a considerable challenge.

The rest of their schedule features Western Kentucky (2-4) and Middle Tennessee (1-4) on the road, then they host in-state rival UL-Monroe (2-4).

UL-Lafayette's lone loss this season was to then-no. 9 Oklahoma State.  They were crushed 61-34,  but perhaps the pollsters will give them credit for the 34 points they scored against a top 10 opponent.

To finish the season ranked, I believe UL-Lafayette will have to sweep the Sun Belt and win their bowl game.  If they do those two things, they are guaranteed a record of at least 11-2.

The pollsters have kept 11-win teams out of the polls in the past, but that was before they expanded to their current 25-team format.

It's worth mentioning that UL-Lafayette had close games against Kent State (20-12 win) and Florida Atlantic (37-34 win), two teams with only one win between them.  Those games certainly won't impress the pollsters.

But the bottom line is that if UL-Lafayette goes 11-2 with a bowl win, on the surface, their season's resume will sure look glossy to the pollsters.