MVC Basketball

Wichita State guard Fred VanVleet is dealing with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of the lineup, and it is uncertain when he will return to action.

Continue for updates.

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Latest on VanVleet's Playing Status

Wednesday, Dec. 2

Head coach Gregg Marshall told Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports that VanVleet is questionable to play vs. Saint Louis. 

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VanVleet Vital to Shockers' March Madness Hopes

The senior has played in just two of the Shockers' six games this year, averaging 5.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists while playing just 16.5 minutes per contest.

VanVleet averaged a career-high 13.6 points per game last season, but his ability to set the pace and run the offense led the team to 35 wins two years ago and an upset victory against the second-seeded Kansas Jayhawks in the round of 32 in the 2015 NCAA tournament.

Wichita State (2-4) could face more trouble without its senior leader, having lost its last four games. In his limited action this year, VanVleet has averaged just two assists per game, though he recorded over five per contest in the previous two seasons.

If the Shockers are going to return to the NCAA tournament for a fifth straight season, they'd better hope the injury doesn't linger. It's clear that they aren't the same team without VanVleet in the lineup. 

Breathe easily, Wichita State fans. Coach Gregg Marshall is sticking around.

With a number of high-profile jobs opening up this offseason, including the one at Texas, there was speculation that Marshall would take a position at a power-conference school. Instead, he will stay at Wichita State and try to build on his team’s Sweet 16 appearance from this season. 

Jason King of Bleacher Report was the first to break the news Wednesday, and Gary Parrish of CBS Sports confirmed it:

Source close to Gregg Marshall has informed Bleacher Report that the coach is staying at Wichita State. Won't go to Alabama.

— Jason King (@JasonKingBR) April 2, 2015

Marshall held individual meetings w/ some players this week and a source told Bleacher Report that Marshall's mood was "business as usual."

— Jason King (@JasonKingBR) April 2, 2015

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports reported that the “new deal will be for $3.3 million per year on a seven-year contract.”

Marshall's son Kellen commented on his father's new contract:

https://twitter.com/KelMoney24/status/583463328313278465

https://twitter.com/KelMoney24/status/583474393692545025

Marshall had been a speculated candidate for other jobs before reaching his new deal with the Shockers, including with Texas. However, King noted that the Longhorns never made contact with Marshall regarding their open head coaching spot.

Marshall has built a consistent winner in the Missouri Valley Conference and even took his team to the Final Four in the 2012-13 season. The Shockers also finished with a perfect record during the 2013-14 regular season and lost a heartbreaking game to the Kentucky Wildcats in the NCAA tournament round of 32.

Part of the reason Wichita State has been so successful in recent years is the presence of veterans Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet in the backcourt. Troy Machir of Sporting News speculated what this latest news could mean for the immediate future of the two guards:

Gregg Marshall staying at Wichita State makes me believe that Baker and/or VanVleet are going to return.

— Troy Machir (@TroyMachir) April 2, 2015

Wichita State fans would certainly love to see Baker and VanVleet, both juniors, and Marshall all back and battling for a potential Final Four run in the 2015-16 season.

Wichita State's berth in the Sweet 16 began taking shape two years ago, as the program prepared for its first Final Four since 1965.

As the team bused to the Georgia Dome for a workout, assistant coach Greg Heiar felt his cell phone vibrating in his pocket.

"Coach Heiar," the voice on the line said. "This is Darius Carter. I'm ready to commit to Wichita State."

Heiar and the Shockers coaching staff were ecstatic.

But also surprised.

A 6'7" forward from Vincennes (Indiana) Junior College, Carter had been one of Wichita State's top targets since Heiar stumbled upon him by accident while recruiting another player a few months earlier.

Carter, though, had never even visited Wichita State or met head coach Gregg Marshall. And bigger schools such as Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State and West Virginia were beginning to show interest.

Still, watching the Shockers advance to college basketball's final weekend was all Carter—the nephew of LeBron James' business manager, Maverick Carter—needed to see.

"The Final Four sealed the deal for me," Carter said. "I just loved their passion and how hard they played and how tough they were. It was something I wanted to be a part of."

Now, Wichita State finds itself in a similar position in the postseason—and Carter is one of the main reasons.

While veteran guards Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton are given most of the praise, anyone associated with the program knows Wichita State wouldn't be playing Notre Dame in the Sweet 16 on Thursday if it wasn't for Carter.

"He's one of our unsung heroes," Marshall said. "The contributions he's made this season have been vital to our success."

That was the case last season, too, when Carter averaged 7.9 points and 4.5 rebounds off the bench for a squad that went 35-1 and lost to Kentucky in the round of 32.

This season Carter has taken it to a new level.

Once a complementary player, Carter is now a key cog on a team that relies heavily on his presence down low. The graduation of Chadrack Lufile and Kadeem Coleby left Carter as Wichita State's only experienced post player entering the season. While players such as Evan Wessel (who is playing out of position) and Shaq Morris have had good spurts, Carter has been the Shockers' one constant in the paint, where he averages 11.1 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting 51.9 percent from the field.

"There's a lot of pressure on him to carry the load down there," VanVleet said. "The most impressive thing is how he's kept fighting through adversity.

"He just keeps fighting for us, whether he's in foul trouble or getting hacked or getting yelled at by Coach or getting his tooth knocked back."

The latter of those examples occurred during the first half of Friday's second-round victory over Indiana, when Carter fell to the ground after taking an inadvertent elbow to the kisser. His front tooth didn't come out, but it was pushed back toward the roof of his mouth.

"I just walked back into the tunnel and a dentist pulled it back in place with his finger," Carter said matter-of-factly. "I popped a couple of Ibuprofen and went back into the game."

Heiar couldn't help but be impressed with Carter, who finished with nine points and seven rebounds in the 81-76 win. Or with the huge defensive effort he gave in the Shockers' 78-65 win over Kansas on Sunday. The resiliency was similar to what Carter showed back in December, when he responded to a halftime tongue-lashing from Marshall by scoring 14 second-half points in a come-from-behind win at Detroit.

"He's a guy that likes to be challenged," Heiar said. "He plays better when he's mad."

That attitude fits in particularly well for a Wichita State program whose motto is "Play Angry." The Shockers take as much pride in diving for loose balls, blocking shots, denying passes and saving balls out of bounds as they do scoring.

Carter thought he was a tough-minded player when he enrolled two years ago, but it took a while for him to elevate his intensity to a level that satisfied the fiery Marshall, a man who Carter researched before committing to the Shockers.

Carter was particularly impressed with the success junior college transfers had enjoyed under Marshall. The Final Four squad, for instance, featured three JUCO-transfer starters in Carl Hall, Cleanthony Early and Malcolm Armstead.

"When you transfer from JUCO, you need someone right there by your side, helping you grind and adjust to the new level," Carter said. "That's what they've done for me at Wichita State. We have high-level practices every day.

"[Marshall] is a really challenging coach. He wants the best for all of us. He tries to bring it out in any way possible. Sometimes it's not the nicest way. But we know he wants the best for us whatever he does. I've definitely gotten tougher, mentally as much as physically."

Carter will need that toughness more than ever this week in Cleveland. Notre Dame is full of momentum after winning the ACC tournament and then advancing to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2003.

The Fighting Irish, who rank second in the nation in field-goal percentage, boast one of the country's more underrated forwards in Zach Auguste (12.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG). Carter will be charged with slowing down the 6'10" junior.

The challenge will become even more daunting if Wichita State advances to the Elite Eight, where it would likely face No. 1-ranked and undefeated Kentucky. The Shockers, who are thin in the paint after Carter, would seemingly face a huge mismatch against a frontcourt that is being hailed as one of the best in college basketball history. Wildcats standouts Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein are projected as top-10 picks in this summer's NBA draft.

"Darius isn't going to back down from a challenge," VanVleet said. "That's just who he is. That's who we are. That's Wichita State."

Jason King covers college sports for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JasonKingBR.

WICHITA, Kan. — All eyes are on Fred VanVleet.

Back at a preseason practice in October, VanVleet has stopped a defensive drill to show freshman guard Corey Henderson Jr. the proper positioning and footwork. VanVleet has Henderson turn his hips, then gets down in a defensive position, quickly chopping his feet and jumping toward the ball so Henderson understands what it's supposed to look like.

The Wichita State coaches stand by without flinching, and as VanVleet steps back, the drill resumes with Henderson executing the steps properly.

You hear a player is a "coach of the floor" so often it's almost cliche, but VanVleet is college basketball's version of Peyton Manning.

Last Saturday inside a fever-pitch Koch Arena against Northern Iowa, a loose ball off a chaotic possession found its way into the hands of VanVleet. The junior point guard held the ball on his side, allowed everyone to relax and then started pointing teammates where he wanted them on the floor without looking to the sideline for instruction.

"We all look at him to see what we're about to do next," Tekele Cotton said.

With the shot clock winding down, VanVleet calmly dribbled the ball toward the top of the key, noticed Northern Iowa's Wes Washpun cheating toward the lane and threw a bullet pass to an open Evan Wessel in the corner for a three.

"He understands our system to the level of Coach Marshall and us as a staff," assistant coach Greg Heiar said. "He understands the counters and the reads and when you're playing something one way, this will work. And he's always right."

Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall said he's given VanVleet the responsibility to audible a play call, a luxury Marshall says he's given to other point guards before, but "not to that degree."

"He's not like an assistant coach on the floor; he's a head coach on the floor," Marshall told Bleacher Report. "That's a little different. I trust him to run whatever he thinks is best."

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VanVleet's rise from living in a rough area in Illinois, where his father was shot and killed in a drug deal when VanVleet was just five years old, to being one of the best point guards in college basketball is a great story, told last year by my colleague, Jason King.

Last May, VanVleet, only two years removed from high school, was asked to give the commencement speech at his alma mater, Auburn High School. He delivered a powerful speech that made it hard to believe it was coming from a college kid.

"Just an unbelievable human being," Heiar said.

But let's get one thing straight: VanVleet is much more than character and brains.

He's a bad, bad man with the ball in his hands.

In the win over Northern Iowa on Saturday, VanVleet had one sequence that belonged on a mix tape, crossing over through his legs four times before burying a jumper in Matt Bohannon's face after the poor guy almost fell over.

VanVleet has built his reputation as a great setup man—he is already the school's all-time assist leader and ranks in the top 10 nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio for the second straight season—but he's changed his game this season to evolve with the roster. 

"From last year to this year, we don't have a Cleanthony Early anymore that can just throw the ball and get out of his way. I've taken more responsibility to be more dominant of the ball and the game," said VanVleet, who is averaging 16.0 points per game over Wichita State's last seven games. "I want to guard the best player. I want to guard whoever's hurting us, and on offense I want to be in control and try to get us in the best possible position."

VanVleet has his team in prime position entering the postseason. The Shockers are 28-3 with a Missouri Valley regular-season championship trophy already in their possession, and they are a serious threat to get back to the Final Four for the second time in three seasons.

Marshall does not have the juggernaut he had a season ago when the Shockers started 35-0, secured a No. 1 seed and ended up losing a classic in the round of 32 to Kentucky. That team had current New York Knicks reserve Cleanthony Early as a bucket-getter at power forward, veteran Nick Wiggins (brother of Andrew and now in the NBA D-League) coming off the bench and a litany of big bodies who could bang with the big boys like Kentucky.

This team lacks that kind of depth and size, but no team in the country can match the production and smarts of Wichita State's veteran backcourt of Ron Baker, Cotton and VanVleet.

"That's an invaluable asset in tournament play," Marshall said.

VanVleet's ability to see the big picture is what separates him from most college players and what makes Wichita State so dangerous in March.

Coming into this year, WSU's frontcourt was the big question mark. Marshall planned to go small with Wessel, a 6'4" guard at the 4, but it was imperative to develop another big man or two for depth. The Shockers had only one big man, Darius Carter, who had played a minute of Division I basketball.

VanVleet took it upon himself this summer to work out with redshirt freshman Shaquille Morris, the big man with the most potential to play meaningful minutes outside of Carter.

On July 5, when Morris didn't show up for an early-morning run, VanVleet took to social media to call him out.

"Just want all of twitter to know me and @Shaq_Morris had a date this morning and he stood me up!" VanVleet tweeted out with a selfie inside Wichita State's track stadium and a "#notthefirsttime" hashtag.

"He knew the buttons to push with Shaq," Marshall said. "It's very rare when young people now will call someone else out for not doing the right thing or not doing enough, and he can do that as a fellow player and get away with it.

"There's no 'oh my gosh you don't tell me what to do. You're just another guy out here playing.' He has that type of respect that he has earned from his fellow players."

Every move that VanVleet makes seems to have some kind of deeper meaning with an eye toward the future.

After a loss to Northern Iowa on Jan. 31, WSU's first loss in the Valley since the 2012-13 season, VanVleet emphasized the importance of not slipping up again before the rematch back in Wichita on the final day of the season with Northern Iowa.

Pride, of course, was a driving force. "You get beat like that, the kind of guys we have, it's been a bad taste in our mouth for a while," VanVleet said. But he also knew the importance of giving his younger teammates a meaningful game with a conference title on the line.

"For guys who haven't been here, you get to see what it's like to win a championship, how much fun it is, the type of plays necessary you need to make playing against a team like that," VanVleet said on Feb. 28, after the Shockers got their revenge on the Panthers, 74-60, to win the Valley outright. "You can't explain how valuable it is to get this type of competition, especially during the regular season."

The reason those players got to experience that feeling was VanVleet's ability to tactically dismantle one of the best defenses in the country.

In the first meeting, the Shockers had a hard time getting in the lane against UNI's pack-line defense. On Saturday, the Panthers were once again trying to keep Wichita State out of the paint by double-teaming the WSU guards when they would come off a ball screen and then cheating off Wessel in the corner to cover the roll man.

Wessel, a program player who does everything right, is sometimes shy to shoot. He uses a minuscule 11.5 percent of WSU's possessions when he's on the floor, according to kenpom.com. Wessel took only three shots in the first meeting in Cedar Falls, but he took eight shots on Saturday and buried three big three-pointers, two of which came off VanVleet passes.

VanVleet was in such control that almost every shot WSU took was an open one.

"I think he's got that type of feel and understanding of what we're trying to do and how a player can gain confidence from him making the pass to him," Marshall said. "When Fred passes you the ball, it's on target and on time, you know it's in rhythm and when he looks at you as the ball's in flight, those eyes say, 'you're open, shoot it.' "

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The best Fred VanVleet story comes from Wichita State's upset of Gonzaga on the way to the Final Four in 2013.

VanVleet, just a freshman, had the ball in his hands with less than two minutes left, his team ahead by two and the shot clock winding down. He looked to the sideline to see if Marshall was going to call a timeout, and when he didn't, he measured up Gonzaga's David Stockton and started inching closer to the three-point line.

That's when it looked like VanVleet's nerves, for one time, got the best of him. He fumbled the ball to his left toward the WSU bench, but he grabbed it in time, looked at the shot clock and stepped into a three-pointer from about 24 feet out.

"And as it's going through the net, he literally turns over to me and winks as he holds his follow-through," Marshall said.

As this year's postseason begins—WSU opened with a win against Southern Illinois in the Valley tournament on Friday afternoon—few teams are playing as well as the Shockers. They've lost only once since the calendar turned and are now ranked No. 8 nationally.

In the minutes after winning the Valley regular season, Marshall bounced around like a groom on his wedding night. With music blaring inside the arena, he danced—an old-timey twist was his move of choice—and ran over to the student section to give high-fives, soon followed by VanVleet and then the rest of the Shockers. 

It has been a magical run for the Shockers over the last three years—a Final Four, a perfect regular season and now back-to-back Valley titles. If you wonder why the coach hasn't left for a higher-profile job, look in that backcourt. 

Again, this group isn't as talented as last year's, but the team that knocks off the Shockers in the NCAA tournament will have to play extremely well, because they will not beat themselves. 

VanVleet will make sure of that. Heiar says that he's so well=studied he knows the favorite spot to shoot for every player on WSU's roster.

"They say guys have got 'old man' game," Heiar says. "He's got an old man mind and an old man savviness to him."

The Shockers know the joys of a March run, and VanVleet is prepared to make it happen again.

All eyes on him.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.

Fred VanVleet, the main catalyst behind Wichita State’s undefeated 2013-14 campaign, is gearing up for his team’s matchup with Kentucky in the third round of the 2014 NCAA tournament Sunday.

The top-seeded Shockers are coming off a convincing 64-37 win over the Cal Poly Mustangs and now must prepare to face a much tougher opponent in head coach John Calipari’s No. 8-seeded Wildcats (25-10).

VanVleet is going to be essential for Wichita State to remain unbeaten, advance to the Sweet 16 and move to 36-0 against a team that was ranked No. 1 overall at the start of the season.

While the superstar sophomore only scored four points against Cal Poly, he still managed to make a major impact in the round of 64. VanVleet chipped in three rebounds and a steal, but most importantly he paced the offense with eight assists during his 28 minutes of play.

Joanna Chadwick of The Wichita Eagle pointed out a rather humorous stat about VanVleet’s facilitating:

The defense made the biggest difference in that contest, however, as the Mustangs shot a meager 20.7 percent from the field and 17.9 percent from beyond the arc.

VanVleet was essential in limiting opposing guards Kyle Odister and Jamal Johnson to a combined nine points in the matchup, but he will have to play a much better all-around game against UK.

As arguably the best athlete on the Wichita State roster, it will fall on the 5’11”, 194-pound guard to defend on the perimeter and navigate through the extremely capable but often raw and inexperienced Kentucky defense.

Despite not getting much respect from the oddsmakers (Wichita has been installed as a narrow three-point favorite, according to ScoresandOdds.com), KenPom’s efficiency ratings show that the Shockers are a better overall team.

The Kansas-based program is No. 11 in the country in adjusted offense and No. 10 in adjusted defense. Compare that to the Wildcats, who rank No. 20 in offense and No. 22 in defense, and it appears this one should go in favor of Wichita State.

However, the Shockers are likely to sink or swim based on the performance of their best player, VanVleet. He has to be more dialed in against Kentucky, as a 20 percent shooting outing will not cut it against an elite program thought to be stacked with future NBA stars.

VanVleet assured the world that his team, which hadn’t played since March 9 ahead of Friday’s matchup, would not be rusty or scared against a foe that many feel will send the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region packing, as per GoShockers.com:

It was just good to get back out there playing a game. You know, it's been awhile, so I think guys got the jitters out and we'll be ready for Sunday.

Wichita State has made a name off slaying giants and bluebloods, but its run will come to an end if the Rockford, Ill., native isn’t nailing shots and running the offense at a high level.

It’ll be interesting to see if he can still shine against Kentucky’s length and athleticism, but there are 35 reasons not to doubt the star point guard in Wichita State’s win column.

Predicted Final Stat Line: 15 points (5-9 FG, 2-4 3PT, 3-4 FT), nine assists, four rebounds, two steals.

  

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The knock on the Wichita State Shockers is that they haven't played many good teams while running up a gaudy 35-0 record.

The Shockers get a chance to prove themselves worthy of a No. 1 seed when they battle the Kentucky Wildcats in a Midwest Region contest Sunday afternoon in St. Louis.

However, there are numerous trends working against a KU team that began the year as the top-ranked school, including its record against No. 1 seeds and its lame record as an underdog.

Spread and total points scored betting line

The Shockers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 134. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report)

Odds Shark computer pick

74.7-68.2 Shockers

Why pick Kentucky to cover the spread

The Wildcats missed the tournament last year, but are back after finishing second in the SEC and losing by a point to Florida in the conference championship game. Kentucky played below expectations most of the season, but those expectations were huge, so it's almost understandable.

Kentucky won its tournament opener Friday, beating Kansas State 56-49 and limiting its opponent to 36 percent field-goal shooting.

The No. 8 Wildcats start five freshmen, and while they don't always shoot straight, they can still play that pressure D, holding foes to 40 percent shooting for the season.

Why pick Wichita State to cover the spread

The Shockers won both the Missouri Valley regular-season and conference tournament titles this season, becoming the first team to go into the NCAA tournament undefeated since Tark's UNLV team of 1991.

Wichita State then took care of business in usual fashion in its tournament opener Friday, dispatching Cal Poly 64-37 and limiting the Mustangs to just 12 field goals in 58 shot attempts, covering as a 16-point favorite.

They have covered nine straight spreads, all at 12 points or greater. They catch a KU team that has lost 10 of 13 games when catching points and which is 1-4 SU against top seeds since 1996.

Smart betting pick

Wichita State has been the best team in college basketball this season to bet on, going 25-6 against the spread. The Shockers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 tournament games.

Kentucky is talented but young, and for this matchup provides Wichita State with a big-name target against which to garner some respect. Give the short spread and go with the Shockers.

Power rankings

Kentucky Wildcats: No. 86

Wichita State Shockers: No. 4 (per Odds Shark power ranks)

March Madness betting trends

• Kentucky 1-4 SU vs No. 1 seeds since 1999
• Wichita State covered nine straight spreads (all 12 or more points)
• Kentucky is 3-10 SU past 13 games as underdogs
• No. 1 seeds 7-2 ATS past vs No. 8 seeds since 2009

Note: All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark—download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.

For all of his excellent play this season, Fred VanVleet remains largely anonymous on the national stage. In fact, if it were possible for a No. 1 seed to be an underdog, VanVleet might be the perfect player who embodies the spirit and the national attention of Wichita State.

The Shockers head into their round of 64 matchup with Cal Poly as overwhelming favorites but most waiting for the shoe to drop. Preseason No. 1 Kentucky likely looms in the round of 32, a team with more natural gifts but infinitely less cohesion. If that wasn't bad enough, defending champion Louisville looms as a potential Sweet 16 opponent following the worst seeding line that I've seen in my lifetime.

Given the so-called Bracket of Death, some think Wichita State won't even make it to the second weekend. That may be the case. But for now, VanVleet and his teammates temporarily get to bask in the glow of being a No. 1 while defending their Shocking (pun entirely intended) run to the Final Four last season.

Last year's team returns leading scorer Cleanthony Early, a gifted forward whose national fame gained in March has made him the face of this run. Everyone knows the name Cleanthony Early—quite possibly because he's the first person in human history to be named Cleanthony (#falsefacts).

Also returning are Ron Baker and Nick Wiggins, the latter of whom became famous simply by proxy of his brother.

Lost amid all the preseason hype and previews was the ascent of VanVleet into the starting lineup. And all he's done is be the team's best and most consistent player all season.

The 5'11" sophomore comes into the NCAA tournament as one of the nation's least-appreciated superstars. Moving into the lineup spot created by Malcolm Armstead's graduation, VanVleet topped his predecessor's numbers across the board, averaging 12.1 points, 5.3 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game.

Much like Armstead, coach Gregg Marshall trusts VanVleet to provide a steadying hand to the offense. Few non-transition scoring actions within the Wichita State offense begin with anything but an initial pass from VanVleet, and what's arguably made the offense more deadly this year is his intelligence and efficiency.

While Armstead often struggled and shot himself and the Shockers into a funk, the opposite is true for VanVleet. He hasn't missed more than half of his shots in a game since Feb. 11, a 78-67 win over Southern Illinois that was far closer than the score indicates.

In foul trouble and struggling with injuries, VanVleet scored just three points in that contest as the Shockers needed a late run to bring the deficit to double digits.

And really, that's just about the only way Cal Poly can hope to have a chance: Get VanVleet in foul trouble, watch the offense struggle in his time on the bench and ball out from distance.

Given the last couple weeks, it's hard to say that's impossible. Cal Poly entered the Big West tournament with a 10-19 record.

The team had lost nine of 11 games, had little semblance of a rhythm on either end of the floor and looked destined for its first losing season since 2009-10. 

Then all hell broke loose. The Mustangs ran off four straight victories, including one-possession wins over Cal State Northridge and UC Irvine. They dominated an overmatched Texas Southern team in the First Four by taking advantage of lackadaisical defensive rotations and moving the ball brilliantly around the perimeter.

Cal Poly hasn't really done anything different either. It's played the way it always has, only with a much higher efficiency rate. After averaging just 0.863 points per possession over their first 29 games, the Mustangs are up to 1.011 during their winning streak, per Synergy Sports (subscription required).

That may not seem like a huge difference, but prorate that over the course of 100 possessions, and it's nearly 15 extra points.

The changes are stark in both half court and transition, and it's seemingly come down to slowing down a bit and creating better shots. Already a glacially paced team, Cal Poly is averaging nearly five fewer possessions per game since the conference tournament, per Synergy. The result has been a seven-point uptick in two-point percentage and an extra 5 percent from distance.

OK, now here's where we get sober. Of the four teams Cal Poly has beaten, only one could be classified as a half-decent defense. UC Irvine, the most impressive of its triumphs, was No. 23 in defensive efficiency. 

Wichita State is a different animal entirely. The Shockers, relentlessly attacking their opponents, were 10th this season defensively and used their team defensive principles to suffocate opposing offenses. VanVleet isn't the strongest or quickest defender on the roster, but his voice is always active in calling out rotations and picking up opponents in transition.

Chris Eversley and Dave Nwaba, Cal Poly's two best players, will likely be guarded by players other than VanVleet. His size is prohibitive against both of the bigger forwards. But communication and closing out on the perimeter will be key to keeping the game in check.

The onus in starting the offense, though, rests squarely on VanVleet's shoulders. Cal Poly has seen just as much of a renaissance defensively as it has offensively, holding opponents below 40 percent over the last four games. Opposing teams are scoring 10 points less over a 100-possession period, per Synergy. 

There's no compelling argument over a long sample that says Cal Poly will be able to stop Wichita State's offense, though. The Shockers are well-rested coming off their conference tournament, and VanVleet is playing at such a high level it's ultimately a moot point.

VanVleet has torched opposing teams in pick-and-roll situations all season, with more than a third of his opportunities coming out of the set. He ranks in the 85th percentile nationally and ranks even higher when you filtrate the stats among high-usage players, per Synergy.

While Cal Poly has done a solid job of keeping PnR ball-handlers at bay all season, its experience is so limited (7.9 percent of opponent possessions) that game-planning on short notice is going to be hard.

What's more, while these are two mid-majors, let's not discount the talent discrepancy here. Early and VanVleet and possibly even Baker would beat the best player on Cal Poly's roster. Wichita State might not get to the Final Four again, but it won't have any trouble Friday.

Fred VanVleet Projected Stats: 15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 5-of-9 FGs

(All stats via Kenpom unless otherwise cited.)

Follow Tyler Conway on Twitter:

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After making a run to the Final Four last season, the 34-0 Wichita State Shockers, who at the moment are enjoying a 17-4 run against the spread, begin their quest for a repeat performance when they take on the Cal Poly Mustangs in the Midwest Region.

The Shockers don’t get as much point-spread respect as the other top seeds, but they are still favored by 16 points here. If that scares people, maybe it shouldn’t.

WSU has faced a spread of at least 12 points in its past eight games and has covered it every time.

Spread and total points scored betting line

The Shockers opened as 18-point favorites; the total opened Thursday around 125.5. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Odds Shark computer pick

75.4-60.8 Shockers

Why pick Cal Poly to cover the spread

Cal Poly made the NCAA tournament as a No. 16 seed by unexpectedly winning the Big West tournament. The team went 6-10 in conference play during the regular season but won three games in three days, knocking off the top two seeds, in the conference tournament.

The Mustangs then won their first-ever NCAA tournament game when they beat Texas Southern on Wednesday night 81-69, shooting 57 percent from the field and covering as four-point favorites.

Cal Poly starts three seniors, and while the Mustangs are a bit pedestrian on offense, they do play decent defense, holding opponents to 63 points per game and 43 percent field-goal shooting for the season.

Why pick Wichita State to cover the spread

The top-seeded Shockers, dual champions in the Missouri Valley Conference this season, are the first team in over 20 years to enter the tournament undefeated.

Wichita State returned two starters from the team that went to the Final Four last year as well as four others who played in at least 30 games. So the cupboard wasn't exactly bare.

The Shockers own victories this season over Tulsa, BYU, Saint Louis and Tennessee, covering the spread in each of those games. Wichita State does most of its damage on defense, ranking 13th in the nation by holding foes to 39 percent field-goal shooting.

They have a knack for covering big spreads.

Smart betting pick

The knock on Wichita State is its strength of schedule this season, as it played in a weaker MVC. But the Shockers have eaten teams like Cal Poly alive.

Wichita State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine NCAA tournament games and 15-5 ATS this season as double-digit chalk. Cal Poly has made a nice little run, but it ends Friday. Give the points and go with Wichita State.

Power rankings

Cal Poly Mustangs: No. 81

Wichita State Shockers: No. 4 (per Odds Shark power ranks)

March Madness betting trends

• Cal Poly is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
• Wichita State 17-4 ATS run past 21 games
• WSU favored by 12 or more points past eight games, covered every spread
• WSU 14-3 ATS past 17 games as double-digit chalk
• WSU 7-2 ATS in tournament games since 2006

Note: All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark. Download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.

The Wichita State Shockers open their Missouri Valley conference tournament campaign against Evansville, upset winners Thursday night. The Shockers already beat the Purple Aces 81-67 at home and 84-68 on the road in games played last month.

Expect a huge point spread here, but beware the Aces who ride a 10-2 against-the-spread streak in 12 games vs. WSU.

Point spread

Wichita State was expected to open as significant favorites in their conference playoff opener. The line was late because Evansville played late Thursday night. (Line updates and matchup report details).

Why Wichita State can cover the spread

With that 2-0 edge in the regular season, and this being the first game on the docket for Friday's tournament quarterfinals, Wichita State (31-0, 18-0) will be anxious to get its postseason journey underway.

The fact it's the first game on the board is a plus for a well-rested Wichita State team. Wichita State is in on ATS win streaks of 5-0 in conference play, 4-1 against losing teams and a perfect 7-0 on neutral courts.

Why Evansville can cover the spread

Momentum carried over from the night before can be a blessing sometimes. And after the Purple Aces (14-18, 6-12) dispatched No. 8 seed Drake, 69-61, to open the Missouri Valley Conference tournament Thursday night, they could very well shock the Shockers by coming out fired up for this game.

The Aces have now covered four of five, all in conference play.

Power Rankings

Wichita State No. 2, Evansville No. 316 (per Odds Shark Power Ranks)

Smart Pick

Evansville played Thursday night and now has to wake up and take on top-seeded Wichita State? Something doesn't seem right with the timing and while the smart pick might appear to be to lay the points with the No. 2 team in the nation, the Shockers might be overinflated because it's the early game.

The Shockers lost the title game of this event last year to Creighton, so they'll be strategic in wanting to win this tournament. Besides, the Aces have covered six of the last seven meetings.

Trends

• Wichita State is 7-1 ATS past eight games as favorites
• Evansville is 8-3 ATS past 11 games as underdogs
• Evansville is 10-2 ATS in past 12 meetings with WSU

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.