MVC Basketball

Wichita State wouldn't have gotten this far without confidence. It's a key ingredient for a Cinderella team. Some say it's a necessary ingredient.

Nobody in their right mind would have thought the Shockers would be the team from Kansas to make it to the Final Four this year. The Shockers believed. Then again, they weren't in their right mind. No team from the Missouri Valley Conference should expect to upset the No. 1 team in the nation, Gonzaga, then upset one of the hottest teams in the nation, Ohio State. That's simply ludicrous.

But confidence won't be enough to propel Wichita State past Louisville in the Final Four. The Cardinals, arguably the best team in the nation this season (regardless of official ranking), have a phenomenal defense led by one of the nation's best on-the-ball defenders Peyton Siva and an underrated offense led by star guard Russ Smith. They rank second in defensive efficiency and 23rd in offensive efficiency this season, per TeamRankings.com.

In the Cardinals' first true test in the NCAA tournament, they destroyed Duke, 85-63. It was a clinic, in virtually every area. They shot 53 percent while holding Duke to 37 percent shooting, they out-rebounded the Blue Devils 35-26 and they attempted 36 free throws.

Of course, the good news for the Shockers is that they don't just have confidence—they're a very good basketball team, in every sense of the word "team." 

Nobody thought much of Wichita State holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting during the regular season. The Shockers played in the mediocre MVC, after all. But they didn't stop there—they've held opponents to 34 percent shooting in the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga and Ohio State shot 36 percent and 31 percent respectively against them.

And while Wichita State isn't an efficient shooting team (ranked 114th in the nation in field-goal percentage), that doesn't mean it isn't an efficient offensive squad. The Shockers rank 51st in offensive efficiency this season, primarily because they're a strong offensive rebounding team (ranked 14th in the country). 

Also, Wichita State has upped its game in several areas during the NCAA tournament. The Shockers have gotten to the free-throw line when their shots haven't been dropping, and they are uncharacteristically shooting very well from beyond the arc in their last three games (27-of-60).

It's been a complete team effort, too. The entire starting lineup has contributed in one way or another, while freshman guard Fred VanVleet scored in double digits against both Gonzaga and Ohio State.

So, yes, Wichita State's brimming confidence alone won't be enough to defeat Rick Pitino's Cardinals, but the Shockers have been playing so well together as of late, who's to say they can't continue their magical run?

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In one of the most improbable Final Four runs in NCAA history, the Wichita State Shockers have made it to the stage of the legendary. The Shockers have overcome the likes of No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 2 Ohio State, all the while maintaining their underdog identity.

In order to upset the No. 1 Louisville Cardinals and reach the national championship game, Malcolm Armstead must put on the performance of a lifetime.

Armstead has been the face of this Wichita State team, providing a scoring punch and veteran prowess. With that being said, the 6'0" senior has been the furthest thing from consistent during the Shockers' run to the Final Four.

Thus far in the NCAA tournament, Armstead is shooting 35.6 percent from the floor.

As great as he's been on his best nights, Armstead has been equally as poor on his worst.

For instance, Armstead led a round of 64 win over Pittsburgh by scoring 22 points and dishing out five assists on 6-of-14 shooting. During the Shockers' round of 32 upset of Gonzaga, however, he shot just 2-of-9 from the field.

That trend continued during the later rounds.

During the Sweet 16, Armstead converted 7-of-15 field goals en route to 18 points, six rebounds, four assists and two steals. During the Elite Eight, Armstead posted 14 points, seven rebounds, three assists and three steals.

He also shot 6-of-21 from the field, coughed up three turnovers and committed four personal fouls—a performance that would lead to a certain loss against Louisville.

Countering Elite Guard Play

Wichita State has faced teams with quality guard play thus far. They've dealt with players such as Aaron Craft, Tray Woodall, Kevin Pangos and Ramon Galloway.

With that being said, the Shockers haven't faced a duo like Peyton Siva and Russ Smith all season.

Siva is a defensive master, pressuring the ball from the outlet pass to the basket. Regardless of whom he defends, Siva is almost certain to force turnovers and take them out of their rhythm.

That someone will be Malcolm Armstead during the Final Four.

As for the offensive end of the floor, Russ Smith has become a frontrunner for the NCAA tournament's Most Outstanding Player award. He's averaging 26.0 points on 54.1 percent shooting thus far.

To put it simply, Armstead will need to lead an extraordinary defensive performance when tasked with facing Smith—an inevitability that Armstead's talent is prepared for.

Louisville will not be fazed by defensive schematics or physicality on defense. In fact, the Cardinals play as physical a style of basketball as you'll ever witness in this modern era.

The question is simple—can Armstead counter Louisville's elite guard play with offensive production and defensive prowess? If Wichita State plans on winning, they'll need him to.

Understanding Limitations

As previously alluded to, Louisville point guard Peyton Siva is one of the best defenders in the nation. Although some might state that Malcolm Armstead has already dealt with an elite defender in Aaron Craft, there's one thing worth pointing out.

Craft forced Armstead to shoot 6-of-21 from the field, commit three turnovers and pick up four fouls.

One could make the case that Craft is the superior individual defender to Siva, but in this instance, it's neither here nor there. The fact of the matter is, Louisville plays team defense at an elite level.

The advantage they hold over Ohio State is that their back line is as strong as their perimeter.

Even if Armstead is to penetrate and get past Siva, he'll be tasked with overcoming shot blocking guru Gorgui Dieng. Not only is Dieng an explosive leaper who can alter shots, but he's a master at anticipating the attempts of driving scorers.

To put it simply, very few field goals go over or past Dieng's 7'6" wingspan. 

With this in mind, it's imperative that Armstead understands his individual limitations. The Cardinals will key in on any player they find to be a threat, which suggests that they will force the ball out of Armstead's hands.

It may not be ideal, but Armstead's dream performance may come by way of knowing when to give the ball up—a sacrifice he must make.

Simply reaching the Final Four was surprising enough for Wichita State. However, this team is not ready to call it quits just yet.

The Shockers have already defeated a No. 1 seed in Gonzaga and a No. 2 seed in Ohio State to reach Atlanta. In the other two games, they easily handled Pittsburgh and La Salle in double-digit victories.

However, it will be much tougher to get a win against Louisville. The Cardinals are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament and have won 14 games in a row.

Still, Wichita State can pull off the upset if it follows these keys to victory.

Defend the Interior

Few teams in the country can score around the basket as well as Louisville. The team has made only 32.8 percent of three-point shots this season, but this is a tough offense to defend due to its ability to get points in the paint.

Specifically, guards Peyton Siva and Russ Smith use their quickness to get into the lane and they can both finish consistently around the rim.

However, the Cardinals have not faced a team in the tournament with as good of an interior defense as Wichita State.

Carl Hall has shown in the past two weeks that he has the ability to be one of the top shot-blockers in the country. He had six blocks against Ohio State in the Elite Eight, and is averaging three per game in the tournament.

The Buckeyes were only able to make 31.1 percent of shots against Wichita State, and they are usually a much better shooting team than Louisville. The Shockers simply need to continue to make every shot inside difficult and they will keep their opponent off the scoreboard.

Use Quickness to Beat Press

The big reason that Louisville has been so successful this season is its great full-court press. The squad uses a tough defense to force turnovers and get easy baskets on the other end.

In four tournament games, opponents are averaging 16.8 turnovers against the Cardinals.

At times during the year, turnovers were a problem for Wichita State. However, the veteran leadership of Malcolm Armstead has helped the Shockers commit only 11.5 turnovers per game in the last four rounds.

Still, Armstead gets into trouble when he tries to do it all himself. Against Ohio State, he had three turnovers and missed 15 of his 21 shots from the floor.

Instead, the Shockers need to keep passing the ball to beat the press like they did in the example above. Between Armstead, Fred Van Vleet, Demetric Williams and Tekele Cotton, there are plenty of good ball-handlers on the roster to bring it up the court.

The overall depth will also keep Greg Marshall's team fresh until the end of the game.

Crash the Boards on Offense

No matter what happens, scoring on Louisville will not be easy. A team has not scored 70 points against this squad since Notre Dame on Feb. 9.

However, that February game was a five-overtime loss that featured 16 offensive rebounds by the Irish. Syracuse also gave Louisville trouble in the Big East tournament finals after grabbing 14 offensive boards.

These rebounds give the offense second chances, and most often allow for easy baskets around the rim.

Wichita State is among the best in the country with an average of 13.1 offensive rebounds per game this year, including at least nine in every tournament game so far. This must continue against Louisville to give them a chance to score points.

Obviously, Gorgui Dieng will not make anything easy around the rim. However, Cleanthony Early and company need to use their athleticism to get around the big men down low and get some easy put-backs.

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The Wichita State Shockers are preparing for their Final Four matchup with the Louisville Cardinals in Atlanta this coming Saturday.

Unfortunately, they have their work cut out for them if they are going to become the first No. 9 seed in NCAA tournament history to make the championship game.

However, the Shockers have constantly proved doubters wrong, having beaten a good Pitt team, a No. 1 seed Gonzaga squad, a surprisingly resilient La Salle program and a title favorite in No. 2 seed Ohio State.

Let’s take a look at what Wichita State must do to live another day and punch a ticket to the national championship contest.

Defend

The main reason why the Shockers have become the tournament’s Cinderella isn’t because of some mind-blowing, unsustainable hot streak from beyond the arc—or anything on the offensive end at all.

The Shockers are amazing defensively and have cranked it up a notch during March Madness. They have guarded all areas of the court well, especially shots from three-point land. Opponents have made just 21-of-73 from deep against the them in the Big Dance.

They will have to remain light on their feet against a hyper-athletic Louisville squad that is favored to win by 11 points (as per Bovada.lv). Their best hope at pulling off the upset is to hold the Cardinals under one point per possession.

When able to do that, Wichita State has gone 23-1 during the 2012-13 campaign, including a great effort against the Buckeyes in the Elite Eight. OSU only scored 66 points on its 70 possessions.

Every player on this roster is capable of defending well, so they’ll need to work together as a team to overcome a foe more talented than any they have faced this season.

Rebound

It’s going to be tough to bang in the paint with Louisville, but the Shockers must win that battle in order to advance.

Carl Hall was the team’s leading rebounder during the regular season, but he’s only hauled in 20 boards during the Shockers' four contests in the tournament. The senior will be required to do more, especially if 6’11” Gorgui Dieng is bodying him up.

Gonzaga was the only opponent able to edge Wichita State in both offensive and defensive rebounding, which is why it required an amazing shooting display (50 percent from the field and on three-pointers) to oust the Bulldogs.

It’s unlikely that these Shockers get as fortunate again against a better Louisville team and must not concede a large rebounding margin to them if they are to live to play another game.

Lean on Malcolm Armstead

This senior guard has become an unlikely hero for the Shockers after transferring from Oregon once the 2010-11 season ended.

He’s stepped up huge in the tournament on both ends of the floor, locking foes down on defense and coming back on the other end to get buckets for this squad.

His 14-point, seven-rebound, three-assist, three-steal performance against Ohio State proved his versatility and proved that he was better against tough competition than his so-so outing against the ‘Zags indicated (2-of-9 shooting, 8 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals).

If Wichita State has any real hope of winning a national title, Armstead is certainly going to be instrumental to its chances. He’s going to need to step up, make all the big shots down the stretch and evade the stingy Cardinals, all the while doing his best to shut down star PG Peyton Siva.

It’s a tall task, but this young man has proven up to the challenge.

Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall made a decision on Sunday against Ohio State that was one of those "Why didn't more coaches do that?" kind of tactical moves. 

Marshall had his players go under every ball screen set for Ohio State point guard Aaron Craft, daring Craft to shoot. 

Craft is a 30-percent three-point shooter. He had not made two threes in a game since Dec. 22. He has a herky-jerky release that has so many moving parts he's like a golfer with the yips. Craft, for good reason, had not attempted more than three threes since Jan. 19. 

So what happened against the Shockers? 

They baited him into taking seven threes (he made two). He also missed all five of his two-point attempts, three of which were jumpers. The Shockers begged him to shoot. He did, and it worked out beautifully. 

This was just one subtle move of many that likely filled Wichita State's game plan, and it's not the only reason Marshall will be coaching in his first Final Four on Saturday. But it is part of the equation. The Shockers are more than just a nice story. 

Marshall is a really good basketball coach at a really good program. 

His record says as much. He is 333-152 in 15 seasons. He took Winthrop to seven NCAA tournaments in nine years at the school. He won the NIT two years ago at Wichita State. Last season, he won the Missouri Valley and had the more accomplished team pre-NCAA tournament than this one. He had to replace his five leading scorers, and now he's in the Final Four. 

That's what gets lost in all this "mid-major" talk that will surround Wichita State this week, similar to what Butler and Brad Stevens faced during back-to-back Final Four appearances in 2010 and 2011. 

Many will question what Marshall's next move will be. Will he turn this run into a better job—possibly at Minnesota? He's been successful for several years now; why has he not moved on already? 

Marshall said last week in Los Angeles, via CBSSports.com:

I'm already making seven figures. You can eat a lot of steak and hamburger and pizza for what we're making at Wichita State... I live on the golf course. We have a beautiful backyard. My wife has four dogs. She gardens. We fly around on private planes to Napa and back to South Carolina. We have a good life, man.

At a good program. 

They're Already Big Time

Read that quote again. 

Wichita State is already legit. The only thing the Shockers are missing is the BCS conference, and that hasn't stopped Butler, VCU and now WSU from getting to the Final Four. 

Marshall, like Stevens, took over a program that had already been good. Current Maryland coach Mark Turgeon was at Wichita State before Marshall and he took the program to the Sweet 16 in 2006. The Shockers made four NCAA tournaments during the 1980s and a Final Four in 1965.

Koch Arena, where Wichita State plays, seats 10,506. Legendary coach Ralph Miller got his start at Wichita State. Xavier McDaniel and Antoine Carr, two players who had long NBA careers, played on the same Wichita State team.  

Wichita State does not have a football team, and most of the money is funneled to the basketball program. The expectations are not out of whack, and Marshall has guaranteed job security. 

Marshall has had "better" offers. He turned down North Carolina State since coming to Wichita and countless other jobs that we probably do not know about. He was also pretty content at Winthrop. 

In fact, Marshall was offered the College of Charleston job in 2006, which would have been a step up. He had been an assistant for eight years at Charleston. He accepted the job, only to change his mind a day later. 

A year after that he agreed to come to Wichita State.

Like Stevens and Shaka Smart, he's content where he is for good reason. And unlike those coaches, he's already made his move. 

The Mid-Major Blueprint

The strategies Stevens employed during back-to-back Final Four trips—the last-second plays, the game plans built around advanced stats—made him one of the game's most respected coaches. 

Marshall is a respected coach, yet no one is throwing around words like "genius" this week, a word that follows Stevens regularly. But moves like forcing Craft to shoot the three are the types of equalizers that Stevens made when Butler was navigating its way through two brackets. 

Focusing on the coaches as we tend to do in college basketball does take some of the credit away from the players. And both coaches have had really good players. 

The old mid-major formula was to recruit a group of kids, coach them up for four years and hope they develop and win their senior year. Then get a new crop and try to pull it off again. 

The Wichita States and Butlers of college basketball have always had the advantage of not having to worry about losing players to the pros early, but this is different from that old formula. They may miss out on the top prospects, but it's not like they're recruiting at the bottom of the barrel either. And they're getting players every year. 

Remember, Marshall replaced his starting lineup from last season and he's in the Final Four. 

Much like a Rick Pitino or a Bill Self, Marshall combines the ability to consistently get good players with a winning formula.

His teams have improved every season at Wichita State on the defensive end, according to KenPom.com's adjusted defensive efficiency measure. His teams, similar to Stevens', are always solid on the defensive glass—his final Winthrop team and the six at WSU have all ranked in the top 15 in defensive rebounding percentage. The Shockers won by hitting five straight threes late against Gonzaga, but they typically play inside-out and take good shots. 

So Marshall gets good players and puts them in the right situation.

This sounds pretty easy, huh?  

Imagine What's Next

The fact that Stevens was able to get back to the Final Four in 2011 is what wowed us about Butler and the coach. 

It's not easy to get back. Marshall may never get back. Consider all the success that Gonzaga has had since its 1999 Elite Eight run—and the school has not made it past the Sweet 16 since. 

The Zags have become a national name, however.

They also have no trouble scheduling BCS schools each season on their own turf. West Virginia, Illinois and Baylor came to Spokane this past year. Kansas State played Gonzaga in Seattle. 

That has allowed the Zags to make 15 straight NCAA tournaments, and four of those years they made it as an at-large. 

Butler turned its success into an invite to the Atlantic 10 and now the new Big East. 

Wichita State could be on the verge of taking its brand to a similar level. 

The Shockers were already one of the best programs in the Missouri Valley, a consistently good conference. They will now be the undisputed class of the league with Creighton leaving for the new Big East. 

Roy Williams likes to say that he's no better a coach now than he was before winning a national title. Yes, but it cannot hurt him when he's trying to get players. 

Marshall was already a proven coach, but now recruits will know his name when he walks in the door. 

Wichita State was already a proven program, but now it'll be one that will likely play more games on national TV. 

The Final Four did not justify Butler or VCU as successes. It just helped them get to the next level.

Expect Wichita State to be a mainstay in the NCAA tournament.

Expect Marshall's star to rise. And expect it to happen in Wichita. 

Wichita State is headed to the 2013 Final Four after beating No. 2 Ohio State in the West Regional Final, and it wouldn't have done so without guard Malcolm Armstead's strong play.

As such, Armstead as been awarded the West Region's Most Outstanding Player award.

Doug Haller reported the news on Twitter, complete with a few of Armstead's teammates that made the region's all-tournament team:

Through four tournament games, Armstead averaged 15.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.0 steals per game. He had 22 points in the Shockers' opening-round win over No. 8 Pittsburgh and led the team in scoring, yet again, with 14 points in the Final Four-sending win over Ohio State.

During the regular season, Armstead averaged 10.8 points and 4.0 assists. His journey to Wichita State first started at Oregon, where he played from 2009-2011. He then transferred to a junior college after his second year with the Ducks and wound up with the Shockers for his final collegiate season.

Going out as the region's best player is not a bad way to go.

So far, the Shockers have ridden a team-first effort to the Final Four. Within that selfless concept, Armstead has been the most important player on the floor for the Shockers.

Look no further than this tweet from Rob Anderson to show you just how important Armstead is to head coach Gregg Marshall's team:

Wichita State has been lights-out as a team this tournament, and Armstead isn't its only weapon. Carl Hall, Cleanthony Early and freshman Fred VanVleet have all stepped up when the Shockers needed it most, leading to a Final Four appearance and one of the most improbably runs by a No. 9 seed in tournament history.

Armstead and the Shockers will await the winner of No. 2 Duke and No. 1 Louisville in the Final Four.

No matter the outcome of that scheduled contest, Armstead will end his college career (and maybe start an NBA one) with a Most Outstanding Player award and a place in tournament lore after leading the Shockers to the Final Four.

Win or lose Saturday vs. Ohio State, the ninth-seeded Wichita State Shockers have lived up to their nickname in the 2013 NCAA tournament, stunning Pitt, Gonzaga and La Salle en route to the Elite Eight for the first time in over 30 years.

Led by three sensational upperclassmen in Cleanthony Early, Carl Hall and Malcolm Armstead, Gregg Marshall's squad has shattered brackets around the country. But Wichita State's memorable run wouldn't have been possible without some timely contributions from a trio of cold-blooded guards. 

Below, we'll highlight the Shockers' unsung NCAA tournament heroes. 

Ron Baker

Freshman guard Ron Baker has delivered in big moments for Wichita State this spring, most notably helping pull the Shockers out of a second-half hole against Gonzaga in Salt Lake City in the third round.

After struggling in his first career NCAA tournament game against Pitt, Baker, looking more like a seasoned senior rather than an inexperienced freshman, poured in three three-pointers and two free throws in the final 12 minutes of regulation against the top-seeded Bulldogs to help ignite Wichita State's comeback and propel Gregg Marshall's bunch into the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006.

Baker was superb again for the Shockers in their Sweet 16 win over La Salle, scoring 13 points on 4-of-6 shooting from the floor.

Without Baker's long-range heroics and incredible hustle against Gonzaga, however, Wichita State would have been watching the West Regional semifinals from home on Thursday.

Tekele Cotton

Sophomore Tekele Cotton is averaging just under seven points per game for Wichita State in tournament play this March, but his sequence late in the second half against Gonzaga was pivotal for the Shockers.

With Wichita State trailing the Zags by seven points with six minutes to play, Cotton launched and connected on a three-pointer that kept the top-seeded Bulldogs within reach. On the next Shockers possession, Cotton assisted on a Cleanthony Early three-pointer that kept Wichita State close heading into the final five minutes. 

Although the 6'2" guard's stat line of eight points, three rebounds, two assists and two steals wasn't enough to steal the show, his clutch series of plays late were paramount for the Shockers.

He would chip in six points, four rebounds and two assists in Wichita State's dominant win over La Salle. 

Fred Van Vleet

After scoring just one point in Wichita State's second-round win over Pitt, freshman guard Fred Van Vleet scored a combined 20 points in two wins over Gonzaga and La Salle to help the Shockers reach the Elite Eight.

Van Vleet has come off the bench in all three of the Shockers' tournament games this March, but he has made mighty contributions as both a playmaker and a scorer. 

The freshman recorded three assists, knocked in two three-pointers and went 5-of-5 at the foul line in Wichita State's upset of Gonzaga. He also chipped in seven points in 18 minutes off the bench against La Salle in the Sweet 16.

Van Vleet's shining moment came against the Zags in the round of 32, however, when he scored seven points in the final 90 seconds of the game to help his team pull off one of the tournament's biggest upsets. 

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Doug McDermott, the swashbuckling one-man band who spurred Creighton’s round of 32 run in each of the past two seasons, is on the precipice of making the biggest decision of his life.

When McDermott got rung up with his fifth foul with 37 seconds remaining in the Bluejays’ 66-50 loss to Duke on Sunday, it may have been the last time he'll ever wear a Creighton uniform. The night could have gone better. McDermott finished with 21 points but shot only 4-of-16 from the field, as the Bluejays’ offense cratered without his shot-making.

That performance was one of a select few disappointments for McDermott in 2012-13. 

The 6’7” small forward ascended in his third collegiate season, averaging 23.2 points and 7.7 rebounds while leading Creighton to a 28-8 record. A blessed shooter with a 5,000 thread count jump shot, McDermott knocked down 56.1 percent of his shots, including 49 percent from beyond the arc. He knocked those shots down despite being a nightly version of the Ringling Brothers—the only show in town.

With All-American recognitions and NCAA tournament appearances on his resume, many have wondered whether McDermott will forgo his senior season to enter the NBA draft. For now, not even McDermott knows himself. 

"I think it's just going to hit me at some moment," McDermott said (via CBS Sports). "I'll just be like, 'This is what I'm gonna do.' But it's still up in the air. I have no idea what I'm going to do."

As many know, McDermott’s decision is not your typical “will he or won’t he” early-20s romancing with professionalism. Creighton is coached by Greg McDermott, Doug’s father, which adds another massive monkey wrench to the situation.

The Bluejays have essentially propped themselves up on Doug’s back, which could leave Greg in an awfully precarious situation in 2013-14. Nevertheless, the elder McDermott has made it clear he knows where his true responsibility lies in this situation. 

"I have a responsibility to Doug, as his coach, to do the research and provide the information he needs to make an educated decision," Greg McDermott said (via CBS Sports). "But when he needs somebody to talk to about it; he can't be talking to his coach. He needs to be talking to his father.”

Taking a look at the 2013 NBA draft, it’s clear Greg’s fatherly advice should be for his son to leave Omaha.

Despite his scoring dominance in college, Doug McDermott is not seen as a surefire professional prospect—far from it. He’s considered a borderline prospect, ranking anywhere from 31st on CBS Sports’ Jeff Goodman’s rankings to 45th and 46th on Draft Express and ESPN’s Chad Ford’s lists, respectively.

Considering how wildly NBA draft boards vary and the little less than three months remaining between now and June’s festivities, McDermott could safely call himself a borderline first-round pick. That’s, of course, on the optimistic side of things, but all it takes is one team—just ask 2012 shocker Miles Plumlee.

On the surface, being a borderline first-rounder doesn’t seem all that enticing for McDermott. Only the first 30 picks in the NBA draft get guaranteed contracts, and if McDermott wanted to risk getting not paid to play basketball, he might as well stick around and hang with pops for another year.

That’s true. It also ignores why McDermott is even getting first-round consideration altogether.

Take a look at Goodman, Draft Express and Ford’s rankings again. Notice the names atop the lists. Nerlens Noel, a center with a non-existent offensive game who just had a complete ACL tear, is firmly on the mountaintop in two of the three rankings. Sixty percent or more of their top five players were out of the NCAA tournament after the round of 64 or did not make it whatsoever.

Put bluntly: The 2013 NBA draft class shapes up to be one of the worst in recent history. It’s been often compared to the 2006 class, which produced only three All-Stars, one of which was Brandon Roy.

The talent at the top is questionable and shallow—and that’s assuming everyone expected to declare throws his name in the pot. Kentucky freshmen Willie Cauley-Stein, Alex Poythress and Archie Goodwin, initially expected to enter June’s draft, have all indicated they’re leaning toward staying in Lexington. 

That means opportunity for players like McDermott. Teams will be grasping at straws toward the end of the first round, searching for translatable skills they can plug somewhere as an eighth or ninth man.

McDermott is elite at the most translatable skill of them all: shooting. He’s been compared plenty to former Creighton star Kyle Korver, and that’s a pretty fair assessment. McDermott can drain shots from anywhere on the floor, hardly ever makes bad decisions with the ball and plays hard every possession—mainly because he had to at Creighton.

Nevertheless, he also has plenty of deficiencies that make NBA coaches understandably wary. It’s unfair to call him a can’t-jump-over-a-Pringles-can bad athlete because he can finish at the rim, but McDermott is a below-average athlete. He also doesn’t create off the dribble and doesn’t possess enough strength or size to work his post game in the NBA.

Teams will view him as what they should—a possibly elite catch-and-shoot prospect. Is that enough to get him first-round consideration? Not in most seasons. But in 2013, a playoff team that likes shooters—Miami comes to mind—might just pull the trigger.

What is clear is that this is the only season McDermott can obtain guaranteed money. The landscape will go from barrel-scraping to overflowing by the time June of 2014 rolls around. 

Prep superstars Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker are considered two of the best high school players since LeBron James—and this time it might not be a bunch of nonsensical hooey. They lead a Class of 2013 that has been touted as one of the best ever, with Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon and a bevy of other big names adorning the field.

Combine those players with Cauley-Stein, Poythress and Goodwin—assuming they return—and the 2014 NBA draft class will be a hotbed of talent.

The gap between the 2013 and 2014 class is so great that McDermott would have to add 10 ranking spots at a minimum to his draft standing if he returned. 

While returning to Creighton for another season would give McDermott an opportunity to bulk up a bit, it would do little else. He isn’t going to grow any taller, become a Shawn Marion circa 2005 defender on the perimeter or suddenly start throwing down tomahawk jams like Dominique Wilkins.

McDermott is who he is, and that’s fine. Plenty of players have had long, prosperous careers with his exact skill set. And considering the way he propped up teammates at Creighton, betting against McDermott seems like a fool’s errand.

But if McDermott wants to maximize his draft stock—and thus, his earnings with his first contract—he needs to strike while the iron is still freezing cold for NBA prospects. 

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