MVC Basketball

On a long and lonesome highway east of Omaha in 2010, Grant Gibbs was heading west through Iowa on his way to Nebraska's largest city.

Two years earlier, the first team All-Iowa prospect from Marion, Iowa was making plans to attend his dream school, Gonzaga. Once Gibbs got to Spokane and suited up for the Bulldogs, the dream quickly turned into an injury-filled nightmare.

Two seasons and one torn labrum later, Gibbs' injuries had made him an afterthought on Gonzaga's roster. It was time to look at his options, a process that included looking at his past.

Meanwhile in Omaha, longtime Creighton basketball coach Dana Altman was leaving for Oregon and about to be replaced by former Iowa State coach Greg McDermott. McDermott had recruited Gibbs heavily while at Iowa State.

In high school, Gibbs got to know McDermott fairly well during the recruiting process but never really thought Ames, Iowa was the place for him. He had taken a long look at Creighton, in the end deciding on Gonzaga.

With McDermott now heading to Creighton, everything had fallen into place for Gibbs. The choice to transfer to Creighton was obvious. It's now safe to say that Gibbs' college basketball story will have a happy ending.

That said, there are still a few chapters to be written, as this year's Creighton team looks to be heading toward a magical finish to the season.

The casual college basketball fan who scans the rankings this season will likely pause when they see Creighton's name in the mid-to-low teens. Then they'll say to themselves "Oh yeah, they got that McDermott kid," and move on without giving the Jays another thought.

It's true. They do have Doug McDermott, son of Greg and former high school teammate of Harrison Barnes. The younger McDermott has become the face of the Blue Jays and arguably college basketball this season, earning preseason All-America and Player of the Year honors from several publications.

Make no mistake, however. Creighton basketball is much more than Doug McDermott.

In addition to their superstar, the Jays also showcase Gibbs. Gibbs has become one of the most efficient passers in college basketball. He currently has a 6.25-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Since the NCAA began tracking the stat five years ago, no player has finished a season better than 4-to-1.

McDermott is not the only player on the receiving end of Gibbs' deadly accurate passes. Center Gregory Echenique, a 6'9" mound of power underneath, is averaging 10.8 points and 7.5 rebounds a game. He spends his summers as the starting center on the Venezuelan National Team. 

When teams close down to focus on McDermott and Echenique underneath, the ball gets kicked out to a lethal cast of sharp shooters led by Ethan Wragge, who CBS Sports ranked No. 13 in their list of the top 50 shooters in college basketball.

Perhaps the best testament to how complete of a team this Creighton Blue Jay squad is came during the Alabama-Birmingham game earlier in the season. It was a night when Doug McDermott might have had the worst performance of his college career, logging five points and a couple of quiet rebounds that did little to help his team's effort. The rest of his team responded by having four guys score double figures, winning the game by 17 points.

Already a team nobody wants to face in March, the Jays now have extra motivation driving them via a story that will pick up steam as the postseason draws nearer.

They learned just yesterday that they'll be without guard Josh Jones for the remainder of the season. Jones' college career has been cut short due to heart complications stemming from a previous surgery he had in high school and another to treat a recent issue. His on-the-court production has been replaced by several players, but his emotional leadership may have become more powerful, as he'll likely be on the bench cheering his team on throughout the rest of the 2012-13 campaign.

That's the type of story that CBS loves during March Madness. It's also the type of story opposing teams hate, especially when they already have to deal with a team as lethal as Creighton can be.

If you're looking for a Cinderella to follow this season, you might want to try putting the slipper on the Creighton Bluejays. Hurry, though. Their feet are growing larger with every game.

The Creighton Bluejays will open the 2012-13 season with a surprising 15^th ranking in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll. And lucky for skeptics and believers alike, the Bluejays will have ample opportunity to prove their true quality early in 2012.

A year ago, Creighton fans knew that they had a special team, despite a 33^rd preseason ranking in the same coaches’ poll. But their non-conference schedule kept their ability a secret later into the season.

For better or worse, mid-major teams are largely weighed by their success against major conference opponents. And Creighton’s three major conference opponents in 2011 were Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska, who all finished below .500 in Big Ten play.

In 2012, Creighton’s non-conference schedule once again features three major conference teams. While this obviously includes their annual matchup with Nebraska; Northwestern and Iowa have been replaced with Wisconsin and California. Wisconsin finished one game out of first place in the Big Ten a year ago and California finished one game out of the Pac-12 lead.

Following impressive, although expected, victories over Northwestern and Iowa last year, Creighton clearly demonstrated that it was a contender. But the overall performances of the Wildcats and Hawkeyes last year showed that Creighton had perhaps not proved as much as previously thought.

But that will all change in 2012. Wins against Wisconsin and California do not just prove competence, they prove excellence. Opening 2012 with victories of this caliber will place Creighton among the elite of college basketball, not just among tournament contenders, as their wins over Northwestern and Iowa did last year.

And the best (and most obvious) part for the Bluejay faithful: Creighton returns enough talent to win these games.

Creighton returns a staggering nine out of their top 10 scorers from the 2011-12 season. In fact, Antoine Young is the only player who averaged more than one point per game a year ago not returning for the 2012-13 season. Adding the star power of Player of the Year hopeful Doug McDermott, the Bluejays have the firepower to achieve great things this season.

But the path to demanding respect on the national stage begins with defending a 15^th national ranking, which is the highest of any mid-major in the country. Returning all but one offensive contributor from last year and facing a non-conference schedule ripe with opportunities for statement wins, the Bluejays will not have to wait to validate its lofty preseason ranking.

The most intriguing part of March Madness is the impending promise of upsets. The first day will feature plenty as the 2012 NCAA men’s basketball tournament gets underway today.

With as wide open a field as I can remember between the mid-level seeds, not everyone favored to go through will make it. Some schools will have their dreams of cutting down the nets dashed before the second half of their opening-round game even gets underway.

I expect this tournament to be one of the most upset-heavy brackets we have seen in some time and it all starts tonight as these teams make an early and surprising exit.

Wichita State

The Shockers (27-5, 16-2 MVC) come into the tournament as everyone’s Cinderella favorite. In a cruel twist of irony, the committee matched them up against last year’s mid-major darling VCU.

Wichita is here riding the back of a strong, deep and experienced side. With six contributing seniors who were all a member of the team that won the NIT last season, they know what it takes to get through this kind of single-elimination format.

Beyond the intangibles, they are also an extremely well-rounded team, with a talented point guard in Joe Ragland and a competent big man in seven foot Garrett Stutz. They can beat you inside and from deep.

However, for all the promise the Shockers have on paper, it is really the little wave of support that has been generated out of their control that works against them. A Cinderella story only works if no one expects it. With everyone from Joe Lunardi to the guy sharing your cubicle having them advancing, it is just pegged to be an upset.

The Rams also pose a threat themselves. Head coach Shaka Smart may not have the level of talent he did last year, when VCU made their run to the final four, but they are still a very well-coached side. Since the new year, they have only lost three games, none by more than six points.

At the very least it will be a close match, and those usually favor the underdogs.

Score: Wichita State  60-68  VCU

Vanderbilt

The Commodores (24-10, 10-6 SEC) are on everyone’s watch list after they upset Kentucky in the SEC Championship game. Making their third straight NCAA appearance, this is the most talented group out of the trio.

Led by the play of junior guard John Jenkins and his near 20 points per game, they had a very good year despite the 10 losses.

Their first-round matchup against Harvard pits the schools that put education before athletics. But neither will have books on their minds tonight.

Harvard qualified for the tournament for the first time in 65 years by winning the Ivy league. The Crimson, who were a regular in the top-25 team at the beginning of the season, fell off after some bad losses to Fordham, Princeton and Penn. However, those losses did not keep them down as they rebounded after each to get back on the winning track.

Vandy is favorite by way of their no. 5 seed earned because of the win over Kentucky. It was undoubtedly the biggest upset of last weekend, but the seed could actually backfire as the emotion of their last win has them stumbling out of the starting blocks tonight.

Score: Vanderbilt  51-54  Harvard

Murray State

The Racers (30-1, 15-1 OVC) were the last undefeated team in the country and, besides a lone upset loss to Tennessee State, they would have been one of the most dangerous teams to run into all tournament.

Shooting nearly 50 percent as a team, Murray State makes up for their lack of size by being deadly from beyond the arc. They have three players who hit for 40% from the three.

With the fortune of having playing the first game in Louisville, being one of the most favored mid-majors coming into the tournament and playing against a Colorado State team that was 6-10 on the road. Everything lines up for them to come away with the win.

But that is the exact reason why it will not happen.

Upsets are great in this tournament because they always seem to be on a massive scale. Just as everything seems ideal for the favorites, those strengths turn into weaknesses when bravado becomes arrogance.

The Rams are coming off winning a tough Mountain West Conference. Though their road record is not that impressive, they also play in the most difficult conference to travel, experiencing different conditions everywhere they go.

It just has all the makings for the kind of shocked expression plastering the Murray State players that become the iconic images of the month.

Score: Murray State  69-72  Colorado State

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Gregg Marshall has turned the Wichita State Shockers from a Missouri Valley bottom dweller his first couple seasons into a team with a 26-5 overall record and an at-large berth in the 2012 NCAA Tournament as a five seed.

The Shockers now have to deal with the defensive-minded VCU Rams in the first game. This Wichita State squad is prepared to play in a defensive battle though and may have the pieces for a solid tournament run.

Wichita State Shockers Scouting Report

Strengths

• Efficient offense
• Very good post size
• Solid perimeter length
• Good shooting the three
• Excellent free throw shooting
• Physical defense
• Great awareness
• Great rebounding
• Great ball movement
• Great spacing
• Great experience

What stands out the most to me when I watched Wichita State is how efficient their offense is. Their offense isn't too fancy, but it gets the job done with good with smart motion and by setting on-ball and off-ball screens.

Garrett Stutz is what makes this team for the most part. While I also love the high-flying ability of Toure' Murray and Joe Ragland's smooth shot and efficient passing, Stutz is the big man in the middle who can do it all. Stutz, who goes seven feet tall, has hit 10 three-pointers this season in 30 attempts. He gets up and down the court well and is great at setting screens.

Ben Smith and David Kyles are key complements to those three on this team, as both are dangerous shooters and lead the team in three-point attempts.

The Shockers are 14th in the nation in scoring and 11th in field goal percentage for a reason and that's because they run their offense as efficiently as any team in the nation with smart shots and great ball movement.

On defense, this team plays very physical. They can do that when they basically always have a seven footer on the court—Stutz's backup, Ehimen Orukpe, is also seven-feet tall—and aren't afraid of teams driving on them. They have solid length on the perimeter and always contest shots. It's the reason why they gave Creighton fits all game during the second meeting.

Weaknesses

• Tournament inexperience
• Solid athletic ability, not great
• Too physical?

Honestly, this Wichita State team has displayed very few flaws on tape. One can't help but think though whether or not they are more of a byproduct of playing in a non-power six conference. I don't think that is the case, but their athletic ability still isn't on par with the best teams in the nation, such as a Kentucky, who is a potential and likely Sweet 16 opponent.

While this team has gone to back-to-back NIT's, they don't have the experience of playing in the actual NCAA's which could hurt them.

Another question is whether or not this team is too physical at times. Generally, referees in the tournament allow teams to play, but you never know when they could get stuck with a group of refs who think it's just too much.

As I stated before, the Shockers are so efficient overall, it's really nitpicking their game to find weaknesses.

Chances of Winning First Game: 80 percent

The VCU Rams are yet again a very good team, but Wichita State has the edge in the matchup.

It should be a great game, as VCU's 'havoc defense' is one that can even disrupt the smoothest offenses in the nation, something the Shockers classify as.

In the end though, I think Wichita State is more physical on defense than any team VCU has seen yet and will have a very hard time stopping Garrett Stutz in the paint.

Chances of Reaching Final Four: 6.5 percent

Wichita State deserves a slightly better chance than what I gave UConn, but I just think they will struggle to match up with the athletic ability of whomever they will face in the Sweet 16 between Kentucky and Connecticut, and then in the Elite Eight with either Baylor or Duke.

Chances of Winning It All: 3.5 Percent

Even if they magically get out of the South Region, the Final Four will draw some tough matchups as well.

Cinderella has been doing well lately and it gives Wichita State a chance, but I'm afraid the Shockers just don't have the athleticism to hang with the big boys for multiple games like they will have to do win the national title.