Formula 1 Betting Odds: Should Lewis Hamilton or Nico Rosberg Be Favourite?

When Lewis Hamilton crossed the line to win the Italian Grand Prix, the bookmakers immediately responded by re-installing the Brit as favourite for the 2014 Formula One Drivers' Championship.

The best available price on Hamilton is 10-11.

Team-mate Nico Rosberg, who holds a 22-point lead in the title race with only six races to go, has returned to "underdog" status.

His best odds are evens.

But is Hamilton really more likely to come out on top?

Looking at three key factors and one "wild card," we try to find the answer.

Rosberg has a 22-point lead.

Mercedes have a great enough advantage over the rest of the field to easily finish first and second in every remaining race, providing their cars don't break down.

There are six grands prix remaining. In the first five, the winner receives 25 points, second place 18. The final race awards the winner 50 points, with 36 for second place.

Rosberg's 22-point lead means that even if he comes second to Hamilton in the next five races, he would go into the final round of the year 13 points down and in control of his own destiny.

Victory in this race would give him the title, regardless of what Hamilton did.

Verdict

One-twos in the next six races is unlikely—it's far more probable that one or both will break down or lose positions due to errors at least once.

But the lead means Rosberg can afford to mess up, break down or come second five times and still be in the hunt at the end.

Hamilton can't.

The 22-point cushion remains the most important factor in the title battle, and it's in Rosberg's favour.

Both drivers have performed well in 2014, but one has done better than the other.

Rosberg directly lost 25 or 18 points in Britain and a possible seven in Canada to car failure. It's unclear whether he lost anything from the telemetry failure in China.

But it would also be fair to consider a likely 13 lost points from Hungary, caused by the safety car appearing at such an inconvenient time, as being lost through no fault of his own.

He has made four significant mistakes:

Race	Session	Incident/Result	Points Gain/Loss
Monaco	Qualifying	Mirabeau lock-up, retained pole.	+7 (likely)
Canada	Race	Straight-lined chicane, kept place.	0
Belgium	Race	Hit Hamilton, took him out, damaged wing.	-7 or 0
Italy	Race	Straight on at chicane, lost lead.	-7 or 0

Hamilton directly lost 15, 18 or 25 points to mechanical issues in Australia and Canada and had his starting position badly affected by car problems in Germany and Hungary. In addition, he lost a possible pole to Rosberg's qualifying error in Monaco and was taken out of the race in Belgium.

He also has four significant mistakes to his name:

Race	Session	Incident/Result	Points Gain/Loss
Austria	Qualifying	Spin, lost likely pole.	-7 (likely)
Britain	Qualifying	Gave up on lap, started sixth.	0
Germany	Race	Hit Button, damaged front wing.	-3 (likely)
Hungary	Race	Spin, no significant damage.	0

Despite having more reliability issues, losing out from two of Rosberg's mistakes and having made the same number of significant errors himself, the Brit is only 22 points behind.

So on the evidence of the season so far, we would expect him to perform at a higher average level in the remaining six races.

Verdict

An important factor, and one which favours Hamilton.

But it's not like he'll be strolling away with every race. Rosberg would be expected to have the upper hand in at least two of the remaining six grands prix, and that could well be enough.

Having easily qualified on pole at Monza, Hamilton suffered a software glitch at the start and dropped to fourth.

But he quickly passed Kevin Magnussen and Felipe Massa before reeling in and pressurising Rosberg into making a mistake at Turn 1. He then cruised to victory.

All weekend he looked to be in a great mood, even after he suffered car problems in second practice. His only glum moments were when he was around his team-mate.

Rosberg, on the other hand, is definitely on the back foot.

Publicly blamed by his team for the Spa incident and having been slapped with what the team called "suitable disciplinary measures," he never looked comfortable or happy in Italy.

His two mistakes gifted Hamilton the race win without the need for a battle. He later admitted on Twitter that his team-mate was quicker and deserved to win.

His confidence levels will be lower moving into the next race.

Verdict

Though Hamilton has the edge here, momentum is a fickle beast.

The confidence boost from a great performance can help, but it's unlikely to make a huge difference in the title scrap.

There are six races remaining—or are there?

The inaugural Russian Grand Prix is due to be held on Oct. 21 at the Sochi Autodrom, but amid ongoing conflict in Ukraine there remain genuine question marks over its viability.

Ari Vatanen, a former FIA presidential candidate and ally of current president Jean Todt, spoke to The Telegraph before the Italian Grand Prix.

He called for the race to be cancelled, adding he believed Todt shared some of his views. Does the FIA president share enough of them to push for the race to be called off?

A second problem could be political. The European Union—home to all the current F1 teams except Sauber—is reportedly considering adding sporting sanctions to the existing economic sanctions against Russia.

A document seen by The Telegraph and previously mentioned in my article here, contains the passage:

Beside economic measures, thought could be given to taking coordinated action within the G7 and beyond to recommend suspension of Russian participation in high profile international cultural, economic or sports events (Formula One races, UEFA football competitions, 2018 World Cup etc).

Such "sanctions" would not, according to Kate Walker of ESPN, be legally binding. In truth, they almost certainly won't happen at all.

But if they're being discussed at the highest levels, they can't be completely ignored.

The issue of labour could also throw a spanner in the works. Thejudge13 reported on Twitter from the Monza paddock that a "large group" of race team employees from a major team were refusing to travel to Sochi.

Though an unconfirmed rumour at this stage, this has to be considered too. The cars cannot race without the guys and girls in the garage—if enough staff from enough teams refuse to go, could the race be scuppered?

And finally, sponsors could torpedo the grand prix. Some may not wish to be associated with the race due to the bad publicity it may bring in their primary markets.

Much of the international ill-feeling towards Russia centres on the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in July. Per The Guardian, the missile which downed the plane is believed by those in the west to have been fired by pro-Russian separatists.

All 298 people on board were killed—193 of them Dutch. This means the incident may have particular relevance to two very significant sponsors—Petronas of Malaysia and Netherlands-based Shell.

Between them they supply fuel and lubricants to five teams, including Mercedes and Ferrari. If they decide to boycott the race, their teams are unlikely to feature.

Verdict

Though based primarily on speculation and unconfirmed rumour, this factor can't be entirely ignored.

If the race is cancelled, it reduces the number of points left to play for, so it should definitely be considered an advantage for Rosberg at this stage—albeit a tiny, unlikely one.

Despite what the bookies say, Rosberg still looks the more likely to take the crown.

Hamilton will probably perform better, and it's true that he has the momentum.

But Rosberg's 22-point lead is a much greater advantage to have, especially given the less-than-perfect reliability of the W05.

The lead means he could suffer a retirement at the next race and still be in the title hunt, even if Hamilton wins. The gap would be three points.

But if Hamilton retires in Singapore and Rosberg wins, the gap will be 47 points. In such a situation, Hamilton would realistically need Rosberg to also suffer a race-ending failure to have any chance of winning the title.

If neither retires between now and the end of the season, the point from earlier in the article stands. Rosberg could be second to Hamilton in the next five races, then win in double-points Abu Dhabi to take the title by a single point.

Assuming the same six one-twos, Hamilton has to beat Rosberg at least five times, including at Abu Dhabi, to be champion.

After the season we've had, would you really bet on that?

Odds sourced from Oddschecker.com and correct at the time of publication.