Worst Fits for Top 2024 NFL Free Agents Most Likely to Change Teams After 2023 Season

For players set to hit the free-agent market in 2024, the next few weeks are going to be critical in making a tough decision.

Those who aren't going to get hit with the franchise tag will be left to ponder the classic question: Is the grass greener on the other side?

In some cases, their teams will answer for them. They'll either receive a lowball offer or none at all. For others, they'll either chase the bag or go somewhere they believe to be a better fit.

Every year, there are free agents who decide wrong or wind up with a bad fit. For example, it's safe to say JuJu Smith-Schuster would walk back his decision to join the New England Patriots this offseason.

Here, we'll take a look at the top 2024 free agents from our initial Big Board, identify those most likely to be playing elsewhere and pick one spot that would be a bad realistic landing spot based on scheme, existing personnel and opportunity.

B/R Free-Agent Big Board Ranking: No. 1

Chris Jones tops the free-agent Big Board as one of the most dominant interior pass-rushers in the game. He also makes this list as one of the few elite players who feels primed to actually leave his team.

The 29-year-old means a lot to the Chiefs, but they've also shown a willingness to let good players go. Last season, they traded away Tyreek Hill before going on to win another Super Bowl.

Jones staged a lengthy holdout at the beginning of the season that resulted in him missing the first game against the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs didn't end the holdout by extending him, they simply added incentives to the final year of his current deal.

The Mississippi State product recently told media that he understands this could be his final year in Kansas City. After eight seasons with the Chiefs, it's hard to see him on a rebuilding team.

The Chicago Bears would be contenders. Matt Eberflus' defense has a 4-3 base, like the Chiefs. Trading for Montez Sweat gives them a pass-rushing foundation that would be enhanced by Jones.

However, it's still fair to question whether the timelines match up for Jones and Chicago. The Bears are still unsettled at quarterback with the potential to have the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, and the jury is still out on Eberflus.

Jones will be looking for a multi-year deal just as he turns 30. He makes a lot of sense for a team competing in 2024, but it isn't clear the Bears will be that kind of team.

B/R Free-Agent Big Board Ranking: No. 4

Few players have earned themselves as much money this season as Danielle Hunter. Heading toward his age-30 season with major injuries in 2020 and 2021, he needed a huge season this year.

Hunter and the Vikings had a contract dispute that was resolved after the team reportedly explored trade options for the veteran.

He has answered that call with one of his most productive seasons to date. He has 13.5 sacks on the year, which is just one away from the career high of 14.5 he achieved in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

However, there's a caveat to Hunter's success that is going to be important for teams to understand. The pass-rusher is having a lot of his success because he is playing in Brian Flores' system.

With Flores as the defensive coordinator, the Vikings lead the league in blitz percentage at 47.6 percent.

Despite being one of the most productive pass-rushers in the league, Hunter is conspicuously missing from ESPN's top 20 in pass rush win rate.

That isn't to say his skill set isn't useful. There are plenty of systems that could take advantage of his speed off the edge. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN linked him to both the Broncos and Jaguars in an article published on Nov. 15.

Either would make sense, but the Indianapolis Colts are a team that shouldn't get involved. While they could use a veteran pass-rusher to come alongside Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam, they sport one of the league's lowest blitzing percentages at just 16.6 percent.

B/R Free-Agent Big Board Ranking: No. 7

It's been a tough season for Tee Higgins, but there's a lot of reason to believe he's still in line for a big payday this offseason.

There's also reason to believe it won't be coming from the Cincinnati Bengals.

Between Joe Burrow's new five-year, $275 million contract and a potential Ja'Marr Chase extension, sacrifices might have to be made. That may mean letting Higgins walk this offseason.

The Athletic's Dianna Russini and Paul Dehner Jr. reported that the Bengals and the 24-year-old would not negotiate a new contract during the season after the receiver rejected a contract offer that he considered "low" from the team.

The Giants are going to be one of those teams that should be in the market for a receiver. They have $36.8 million in cap space next season.

However, Higgins needs to be careful about what kind of quarterback situation he links himself to. He has benefitted from being in an explosive offense with Burrow at the helm.

Daniel Jones might be out for the season, but he's unlikely to be going anywhere in 2024. He has an out in his contract for 2025, but parting with him this offseason would bring a $69.3 million dead cap charge.

The New York signal-caller is 25th this season in total QBR. Going from Burrow to Jones is the kind of move that could alter Higgins's career in a bad way. He'll need to go to a team where he can perform right away after a disappointing 2023 season so far.

B/R Free-Agent Big Board Ranking: No. 8

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have some significant talent that could hit the free-agent market. Mike Evans, Antoine Winfield and Devin White are all in the final year of their contracts.

Of the three, White could be the most likely to be out the door. For one, he plays a non-premium position as an off-ball linebacker. Lavonte David is also set to be a free agent, but every year some teams find starting-caliber inside linebackers on team-friendly contracts.

It also doesn't help that White requested a trade last spring because he was reportedly "fed up" with the Bucs.

The 25-year-old is a talented defender. He has been an exceptionally productive blitzer and an important cog on some good defenses within Todd Bowles' system.

However, his coverage has traditionally been shaky and he's benefitted from playing alongside an All-Pro-caliber player in David who makes those around him better.

Much like Tremaine Edmunds, who has struggled without Matt Milano in Chicago, White is going to have to be careful who he decides to go play with.

The Lions might see White as a player who could take their defense to the next level. He would be paired with 2023 first-round pick Jack Campbell, but he has had his own struggle in pass coverage, giving up a 134.5 passer rating this season.

To make the fit even worse, Detroit is just middle-of-the-road when it comes to blitz rate. The Lions are a good team that should be attractive to free agents, but White shouldn't be one of them.

B/R Free-Agent Big Board Ranking: No. 9

It isn't often that a team gives permission to a player to seek a trade if it plans on handing him a big, fat contract at the end of the season.

However, that's exactly what the Bears did when Jaylon Johnson was given permission to seek a trade on the eve of the deadline. He has let it be known that he wants to be paid what he's worth.

The 24-year-old was playing well at the time and continues to be one of the few bright spots for Chicago this season. He has allowed a passer rating of 59.4 when targeted and has a career-high three interceptions with eight passes defended.

That being said, the team that targets Johnson has to understand what it's getting. He is strong at playing the ball in the air and has thrived in Matt Eberflus' zone-heavy scheme.

Johnson is 6'0", 196 pounds. He's not a big-bodied man-coverage specialist who is going to have success being put on an island in a blitz-heavy system.

That's what the Atlanta Falcons are trying to be under first-year defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. They should be in the market for a corner to pair with A.J. Terrell. Jeff Okudah is set to be a free agent this season and they could upgrade.

However, Johnson is a questionable fit. The Falcons play the second-highest rate of man defense in the league, per 33rd Team.

B/R Free-Agent Big Board Ranking: No. 10

Welcome to the nightmare scenario, Patriots fans.

New England got to experience a dynasty with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady leading the team to six Super Bowl titles. Now, it's experienced what it's like to be among the worst teams in the league.

It's a sign that it's time to blow things up. The Patriots tried the half-measure of drafting a quarterback in the middle of the first round. Mac Jones looked decent in his rookie season after getting picked 15th, but he's now getting benched for Bailey Zappe and the team is 2-10.

At 71 years old, it might be tempting for Belichick to talk himself into making a move for a guy like Kirk Cousins, though. Before the Achilles tear that ended his season and the Patriots started racking up too many losses, there was speculation that the two parties made sense for each other.

It's easy for a team with dreams of being relevant to talk itself into Cousins. He's a smart quarterback who takes care of the ball and has been consistent in passing for over 4,000 yards in each of the last three seasons.

The 35-year-old is going to make sense for a team like the Falcons if Desmond Ridder doesn't prove himself or the Rams if Matthew Stafford decides to retire.

But the Patriots aren't even close to contending. They don't have the receiving corps or blue-chip talent on defense to make a huge leap next season. It's draft or bust for New England in 2024, and Cousins will have better suitors.