Justin Jefferson, Next NFL WRs Set to Break the Bank with Massive Contract Extensions

The 2022 offseason was really nice for the bank accounts of several wide receivers across the NFL.

When we look back on the trends of the league, it's going to be known as the year when wide receiver officially became a premium position.

To wit, in 2021, there were three receivers who were making $20 million or more in average annual value: DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper. In 2022, there were 14 receivers who crossed that threshold.

Tyreek Hill ($30 million) and Davante Adams ($28 million) set the benchmark in terms of average annual value, while Cooper Kupp leads the way in guarantees with $75 million of his three-year, $80.1 million extension guaranteed.

This offseason has been relatively quiet at the position. The free-agent class was thin and we didn't have any blockbuster trades like the ones that sent Hill to Miami or A.J. Brown to Philly.

Still, there's a domino in Justin Jefferson that could again send the market soaring. He's now eligible for a contract extension in Minnesota, and the numbers could be huge.

Here's a look at him and other top receivers who could be getting paid very well very soon.

We're going to start here because, as noted in the intro, Jefferson is about to set the whole market.

The tricky part is figuring out what that means from a numbers standpoint. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reported on SportsCenter that the Vikings intend to "prioritize" a Jefferson extension and that he could become the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league.

So, the contracts of Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill could be factors, but Aaron Donald's three-year, $95 million deal could also be used as a barometer. He's paid $31.7 million in annual average value.

Jefferson, 23, is the fulcrum of the Vikings' passing attack. He led the league in targets last season and was ninth in dominator rating, a metric that measures what percentage of a team's receiving yards and touchdowns the receiver accounts for.

The only thing that could make things tricky for the Vikings is Kirk Cousins and his contract. While there's only one year left on the deal, it also carries a dead cap charge of $28.5 million next season in the form of a void year unless he is re-signed.

Inking Jefferson to the kind of contract he might command muddies the waters of a quarterback budget. But if the Rams could figure out how to pay Donald and Stafford at the same time, it's a problem the Vikings should be able to solve.

Ultimately, Jefferson will wind up with a deal that pays more annually than Donald's with a higher guaranteed number than Kupp.

Projected Deal: Five years, $160 million. $120 million guaranteed.

Jefferson has been the most productive receiver from the draft class of 2020, but CeeDee Lamb is firmly in second place which means he should see plenty of money coming his way.

The 24-year-old has led the Cowboys in receiving each of the last two seasons. He's earned two Pro Bowl appearances and was second-team All-Pro in 2022.

Lamb acknowledged there's some thinking about the money but he's mostly focused on performing in 2023.

"Quite honestly, I'll be 100-percent honest, I'm not even distracted," he told the team's website. "The money, definitely worried about it, but it's not something that's on my mind everyday or when I come to the building. I'm not thinking about how much money I'm gonna make if I do this. It's really all about coming in, showing my worth and letting everything else handle itself."

The timing of his contract will be interesting. If the Cowboys can get something done before the Vikings sign with Jefferson, it will likely help them keep some of the cost down.

The Cowboys already exercised Lamb's fifth-year option worth $18 million in 2024, so there's no rush in that regard, but it benefits both sides to get it done earlier.

That could get complicated. Dak Prescott's contract expires after the 2024 season. Right now, 2025 is a void year in his deal that carries a $25.5 million dead cap charge. Then there's Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs to consider as well.

Projected Deal: Four years, $105 million. $80 million guaranteed.

Tee Higgins is one of the most interesting cases in this class of wide receivers. Mostly because he's a second WR in the Bengals offense who produces like a No. 1 for a team that hasn't paid its quarterback or top receiver yet.

There's a reason the 24-year-old has been a speculative trade chip this offseason.

General manager Duke Tobin emphatically shut down the idea Higgins could be traded as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. Yet, that speculation is going to persist until a new deal gets done.

The Clemson product has been a vision of consistency for the Bengals since getting drafted in 2020. He has just over 3,000 yards in three seasons with at least six scores every year.

He's proved his worth and value within the offense. Still, it's going to be a challenge to keep the trio together. Spotrac's market values project Burrow at $53.7 million annually, Chase at $25.4 million and Higgins at $20.1 million.

That's a combined $99.2 million annually for just three players. Those projections could even be low for both Burrow and Chase. Each has an argument to set new benchmarks for their respective markets.

Unless Higgins specifically gives the Bengals a discount to keep the nucleus together, his extension is probably going to exceed Spotrac's projection.

Projected Deal: Four years, $95 million. $40 million guaranteed.

The San Francisco 49ers' impressive collection of skill players can let Brandon Aiyuk fly under the radar. But he is an integral part of the offense.

The 25-year-old is fourth among the class of 2020 in receiving yards with 2,589 yards since entering the NFL three seasons ago.

Like the Bengals, the Niners are going to have to decide how much they are willing to spend on the skill players in their offense. Christian McCaffrey is the league's highest-paid running back, Deebo Samuel's contract pays $23.9 million in average annual value while George Kittle brings in $15 million.

The difference between San Francisco and Cincinnati is the beauty of a quarterback on a rookie contract. The Bengals are about to come out of that period where they get a significant discount on Joe Burrow.

The Niners have just entered that time with Brock Purdy. If the former Mr. Irrelevant works out as their quarterback of the future, he won't have a cap hit of over $1.1 million through the 2025 season.

That could give them enough money to find a way to pay Aiyuk and retain the same talented core that helped Purdy look so good as a rookie.

Projected Deal: Four years, $87.5 million. $48 million guaranteed.

Michael Pittman Jr. is a cut below most of this list in terms of production. He has 2,510 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in three seasons, but his quarterbacks in that time have included Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Carson Wentz.

Pittman managed to get nearly 1,000 yards despite the offense floundering last season. He is going to be a crucial element of the offense as the Colts try to get the most out of Anthony Richardson.

There are underlying metrics that point to the 25-year-old being capable of being elite. He was seventh in route win rate, third in win rate vs. man coverage and 12th in juke rate among all receivers, per Player Profiler.

The Colts added another receiver through the draft in Josh Downs, but Pittman should still be the No. 1 target. Given his production and opportunity as the top receiver in the offense now that Shane Steichen is taking over, he might be the least likely of these to sign an extension early.

"I wouldn't say it's a goal. I think that happens naturally with performance," he said regarding an extension, per Kevin Patra of NFL Media. "And if it doesn't happen this year, that's no big deal. I mean, it'll happen eventually. I just kind of let that business side—just leave that to my agent."

Still, Pittman already has good leverage if he decides he'd like to get something done early.

Projected Deal: Four years, $85 million. $45 million guaranteed.

Mike Evans isn't part of the next wave of receiving talents, but he's still going to be looking to cash in soon. His contract with the Bucs is set to expire at the end of the 2023 season, making him a free agent in 2024.

Even with a murky quarterback situation after Tom Brady's retirement, the 29-year-old's track record of production and consistency is likely to earn him at least one more major contract.

The four-time Pro Bowler has been remarkably consistent. He has at least 1,000 yards receiving in all nine seasons of his career thus far. If the Bucs are going to make things work with Kyle Trask, Baker Mayfield or a 2024 rookie at quarterback, having Evans on the roster is going to help.

The question is whether the Bucs are willing to spend big on another receiver just two seasons removed from handing Chris Godwin a three-year, $60 million contract.

Ultimately, the Bucs should look to do something similar with Evans, adjusted for the increasing market. They are no longer shelling out big money for Brady and imagining this offense without either Godwin or Evans is scary, and not in a good way.

Evans won't quite walk away with the same huge deal as others on this list because he's going to turn 30 before the season starts.

However, contracts for Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp as they approach 30 should give him hope.

Projected Deal: Three years, $83 million. $62.5 million guaranteed.