Fantasy Football 2023: Wide Receiver Busts to Avoid

Of all the missteps you can make at your fantasy football draft—which there are, unfortunately, many—few, if any, feel more deflating than selecting a bust.

You won't know it at the time, but over the course of the 2023 NFL campaign, the error in your ways will become impossible to ignore.

So, how do you prepare yourself to avoid these pitfalls? Well, staying away from the following three receivers is a start, since all will struggle to return value on your draft-day investment.

Mike Evans' year-over-year yardage totals might fool you into thinking he's among the most consistent pass-catchers, since all nine of his NFL seasons have yielded between 1,524 and 1,001 receiving yards. Once you factor week-to-week consistency into the mix, though, that's where the argument falls apart.

His big weeks are enormous. Three times last season he had at least six receptions and 103 yards, totaling five touchdowns in those tilts.

His down weeks, though, can be season-derailing if they arrive at the worst time. He played another five contests last season in which he had between two and five catches with fewer than 50 receiving yards. He went scoreless in those games.

That volatility might only worsen now that he's done catching passes from Tom Brady and will instead be on the receiving end of throws delivered by Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. And even if these quarterbacks exceed expectations, it might not help Evans much, since there are other capable-or-better pass-catchers in this offense.

Few teams disappointed more than Denver last season, and Courtland Sutton shared in that disappointment.

While his 109 targets were the second-most of his career, they simply didn't deliver impressive results. He managed 64 receptions for 829 yards and only two scores. It was his second consecutive campaign with exactly two touchdowns.

The arrival of head coach Sean Payton could help this aerial attack, but who's to say Sutton will be the beneficiary? Jerry Jeudy should be the No. 1 option. Rookie second-rounder Marvin Mims Jr. will eat into the targets. Greg Dulcich, who had eight targets in three of his last four games in 2022, isn't going away and could play a larger role in his sophomore season.

Sutton had a really good 2019 campaign (1,112 yards and six scores), but otherwise he's been mediocre or injured. You can find more reliable ways to fill your WR3 spot.

The idea of what Deebo Samuel could be—and, at times, has been—is intriguing. Fantasy managers are buying into it to the point of making him, on average, the 16th wideout selected in point-per-reception leagues, per FantasyPros.

Drafting him near that spot means effectively paying market value for his ceiling without his downside being factored into the cost.

And that downside is significant. Yes, he had 1,770 scrimmage yards and 14 scores in 2021, but his other three seasons have delivered a total of 2,242 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns. His 2022 effort was entirely forgettable—864 scrimmage yards and five scores—and while his campaign was impacted by injuries, those health scares are part of the risk. Two his four NFL seasons have featured significant time missed due to injuries.

Even if he makes it to the field, he isn't guaranteed to produce. San Francisco has a plethora of playmakers around him—including Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle—and uncertainty at the quarterback position. That's hardly a formula for fantasy success.

You might want to argue Samuel could raise his floor as a rusher, but the Niners really dialed back his backfield usage last season. After opening the campaign with eight carries for 52 yards and a score, he never handled more than five rushes again, only topped 25 rushing yards three times and ran for just two touchdowns.