Assessing Mercedes' Improvements Year-on-Year Since Return to F1

Eyebrows were raised when Lewis Hamilton announced he would leave McLaren for Mercedes.

There was no doubting the potential of the German squad, which had recruited a serious amount of firepower to spearhead its technical assault.

But the team had underwhelmed since buying the Brawn team ahead of the 2010 season, whereas McLaren had regularly fought for wins and ended the year with the quickest car.

The decision that looked to be for the long term has actually proven to be the right choice for the now.

There is no hiding from the fact Mercedes is a team on an upward trajectory this year. But has it been that way since the Silver Arrows reappeared three years ago?

Given that Mercedes returned to F1 as a manufacturer entry as the reincarnation of the title-winning Brawn GP outfit from 2009, its first year has to be viewed as unsuccessful.

In fact, it is difficult to describe it as anything else.

There were no wins, no poles, no podiums or fastest laps and its best result in the drivers' championship was seventh for Nico Rosberg.

The MGP W01 was a solid if unspectacular machine. A best qualifying of fourth was twice-matched in results in the first half of the year, but it tailed off in the latter half of the season.

Though it accrued 214 points, and ended the year fourth in the teams' championship, the underlying pace of the car was average at best. In a season closely fought out by McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari, Mercedes ended on average 1.25% slower than the theoretical best time.

If Mercedes' return was disappointing, its sophomore campaign was even worse.

It started poorly, with a double-DNF in the season-opening Australian Grand Prix and its drivers ultimately managed only 165 points, with seventh (Rosberg) in the drivers' championships again its peak and repeating its fourth in the constructors'.

It also repeated its trend of no wins, podiums, poles or fastest laps, though this could arguably be excused by the sheer dominance of the Red Bull RB7s.

That would also explain its poor, 2.2% deficit to the ultimate pace of the season. In case that percentage is not making sense, it basically means that for every second, the Mercedes' were shipping 0.022s. 

It might not sound like a great deal but that's almost two seconds over a 90-second lap. 

2012 was an odd campaign for Mercedes.

It started promisingly with a series of impressive qualifying performances, and Rosberg earned the team its first win (and his own maiden triumph) with a superb drive from pole in China.

But its season tailed off dramatically.

Schumacher non-finished three of the next four F1 races and the team would score just two more podiums all year.

That was a healthier haul than the previous two campaigns, and the team also secured its first fastest laps since its return with a trio of race bests.

But as a consequence of its uninspiring run since the Chinese Grand Prix, focus switched to 2013 and a better understanding of the Coanda exhaust Red Bull was mastering with devastating effect.

As development was halted, and the team scored points in just one of the final six contests.

Such a slump meant Rosberg fell to ninth in the standings, while Mercedes ended the year fifth. Not only was it the worst result in its three years back in the sport, but it fell well short of team boss Ross Brawn's preseason demand of a top three finish.

As already mentioned, this season has been much, much stronger for Mercedes.

It has improved in almost every area, racking up eight pole positions, three wins and seven podium finishes. It is the only team to win races with both drivers, and is fighting Ferrari for second in the constructors'.

Most significantly of all, its raw pace has been remarkable and that is reflected in the number of pole positions. It's also reflected in the raw performance; on average, the team is 0.328% behind the theoretical best for the season.

Though it has lagged behind Red Bull in recent races, as well as struggled to beat Lotus and Ferrari, the season as a whole has been encouraging.

The biggest concern is two-fold: First, there have been strategy errors, leading to criticism from both Hamilton and Rosberg.

Second, and of greater potential significance: Once again, its form as begun to tail off...

Mercedes has worked forward this season, that much is obvious.

While it may not be immediately apparent, since its return it has edged towards the front.

It has gradually improved its statistics with each season, with the anomalies of its 2012 points haul and 2011 pace deficit explainable by switching development attentions and Red Bull's advantage.

Heading into 2014, an era that could be defined by engine performance, Mercedes looks strong. As a manufacturer entry, it has an advantage.

To capitalise on that, it must refine the rough edges that have blighted each of its four seasons back in F1.