5 Arguments for Why Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari Can Challenge in 2015

Sebastian Vettel's decision to leave Red Bull and join Ferrari caused more than the odd eyebrow to be raised.

Though his now-former team had endured a poor year, they had built the dominant car every season between 2010 and 2013. Vettel's four world titles stood as testimony to how good Red Bull had been, and once their engine issues are solved, they will no doubt return to the very top of the sport.

Ferrari, by contrast, have been Formula One's great underachievers of late. They haven't produced a genuinely title-challenging car since 2008 and were coming to the end of yet another disappointing campaign.

But Vettel did not move for instant results. His legacy secured by four championship crowns and spurred on by childhood dreams of the Scuderia, the German has taken on a project to put Ferrari back where they feel they belong.

Not unlike the project taken on by another German 19 years ago.

Michael Schumacher challenged for the title in his second season with Ferrari and won it in his fourth. Will Vettel be forced to wait that long, or could he help drag them up the grid even quicker?

As soon as 2015, perhaps?

It's unlikely. Mercedes will almost certainly be too far ahead and probability says Ferrari will labour to a third- or fourth-placed finish.

But the Italians could spring a surprise.

James Allison is one of the most highly regarded technical men in F1.

He last worked for Ferrari during the Schumacher era, before moving to Renault in 2005. He remained there as the team was sold and re-branded as Lotus, and as technical director he oversaw the design of the E20 and E21.

The team were not wealthy, but these two cars—Lotus' challengers for 2012 and 2013—punched way above their weight. Between them they scored 24 podiums in two seasons and Kimi Raikkonen won two races.

Allison joined Ferrari as technical director in July 2013. He had input on the 2014 car (which, for all the flaws of the engine, was a solid car) and Ferrari's recent announcement seems to indicate he now has greater control than ever.

The 2015 Ferrari, designed from the ground up under Allison's leadership, could turn out to be a very formidable car.

Former chairman Luca di Montezemolo hovered over Maranello like an all-seeing, heavily involved hawk. He had been in charge during the most successful period in the team's history and perhaps felt he knew the best way forward.

But recent history suggests his way was no longer the right way. Former Ferrari designer Aldo Costa, now of Mercedes and a key figure in the design of the all-conquering W05, revealed to Italian journalist Leo Turrini (h/t James Allen for the English translation) how things had been at the Scuderia:

Strategic mistakes were made—I’m talking here about errors of vision—very serious ones. And of course they haven’t always taken the best decisions regarding people.

I’ll give you an example. In 2008 we in the racing department put in a request to construct a new wind tunnel. We considered it essential to remain competitive. We were told that this was not the case and that there was no need.

In Ferrari all the decisions, on strategy and people, have always been taken by the president, Montezemolo. To be fair, he took them when Ferrari was winning everything and he also took them when Ferrari stopped winning.

No one works well with their boss perched on their shoulder.

Montezemolo has now departed. His replacement, Sergio Marchionne, is not an F1 man. He's unlikely to interfere as much as Montezemolo, which should allow the guys on the "shop floor" more freedom to just do their own thing.

He even asked them to do this, saying at the team's Christmas celebration (h/t Autosport), "Do not fear change, be proactive and have the courage to come up with ideas. I know you can do it and that's what Ferrari needs."

On paper, Ferrari should be capable of being competitive every year because they have a huge budget, top drivers and excellent staff.

With a touch less oversight and pressure from those in the upper echelons, maybe those staff will be able to fulfil their true potential.

Sebastian Vettel had a poor 2014. Having adapted his style to suit the planted rear ends of the last generation of Red Bulls, he didn't seem all that comfortable with the less stable RB10.

New team-mate Daniel Ricciardo had no such problems and handed the four-time champion a fairly sound beating.

But Vettel has not been "found out" as an average driver. One shaky year cannot erase his achievements, especially when he never quite looked as happy and comfortable as he did previously. His former team boss, Christian Horner, told BBC's F1 Review Show Vettel had been unsettled by the new regulations and Ricciardo's instant pace.

Bernie Ecclestone noticed it too, saying in the foreword of the official F1 season review (h/t Daniel Johnson of The Telegraph):

I'm a super supporter of Sebastian, but I'm a little bit disappointed with his attitude, which I think has changed.

He's acting like a defeated guy, and he isn't—that's not his mentality. He's a competitive guy. He doesn't like losing at backgammon. Unfortunately, when he plays me, he does.

Lewis Hamilton fans and many observers point to 2011 and say "blip"—and they're right. 2014 was Vettel's blip.

Settled in at a new team which he has always dreamed of driving for, alongside his closest friend in the paddock, we should see a new Vettel in 2015.

If Ferrari can give him the right car, he'll could be back to his best.

Ferrari's 2014 engine was a shocker. The Renault Energy F1 took most of the headlines and certainly received more flak, but the 059/3 was probably worse.

The final race of the season in Abu Dhabi stands as a fresh-in-the-mind, perfect example of just how bad it was. F1Fanatic's lap charts show what was clear to anyone watching—the Ferraris were unable to pass slower cars and couldn't even think about holding back quicker ones.

But the good news is they have a very good idea where they went wrong.

Luca Marmorini was sacked as head of the Ferrari engine department midway through the year. He told Leo Turrini (h/t gpupdate for the English translation) what the main problem was, and it turns out size does matter. He said:

With my colleagues I packed a power unit with a certain size, i.e., [a] smaller version of the Mercedes and Renault, because we were asked by the project manager of the car, Mr. Tombazis.

[They] said we want a very compact power unit, with small radiators, because the less power [we] will compensate with aerodynamic solutions that will guarantee us an advantage over Mercedes and Renault. It's been exactly like that, except that, when we are confronted with the competition, the horsepower was less obviously, but this was not compensated by aerodynamics!

Incidentally, the "Mr. Tombazis" Marmorini referred to has also been removed from the team.

Identifying the cause of a problem is a large part of fixing it. It's unlikely Ferrari will be able to produce a power unit which can equal an updated version of the awesome Mercedes effort. That's a step too far.

But maybe they'll be close enough.

Ferrari's success in the last 20 years has been in large part down to how much they are willing to spend to achieve their goals.

Most teams know what they need to do to get to the front. Even the likes of Marussia and Caterham knew how to make their cars quicker, but they could never afford the necessary research, development, material costs and extra staff needed to make it happen.

They had to allocate their resources to the one or two areas in which maximum gains could be found.

Ferrari don't have that problem. BBC Sport's Andrew Benson estimates their budget at a staggering £250 million, £50 million more than world-champions Mercedes. They can afford to work on anything they like—four, five, 10 different parts of the car at once.

It would be true to say this hasn't done them a lot of good in recent years, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Continue to throw that sort of cash at an F1 team and sooner or later it'll be successful.

Maybe in 2015.

Ferrari could succeed, but on a more realistic note they probably won't.

The restructuring could be beneficial in years to come, but in the short term is more likely to cause unrest, poor morale and the feeling of a large axe hanging over the neck of every single employee. Will anyone really be tempted to take a risk when the penalty for it going wrong appears to be the sack?

The other major issue is the power unit. In theory it could be fixed by the start of the 2015 season, but the winter probably won't be long enough for all the problems to be addressed. Ferrari may find it's 2016 before they can compete on the engine side.

And to top it off they've lost their greatest asset, Fernando Alonso. Vettel is a very good driver, but on available evidence he isn't quite in the Spaniard's league.

So don't rule out seeing red overalls on the top of the podium in 2015. But don't expect to see them there either.