Ferrari

Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel set the two fastest laps during the second free practice session for the Formula One Chinese Grand Prix.

Raikkonen's lap of one minute, 36.896 seconds was 0.109 seconds quicker than Vettel's best effort and—more importantly—0.237 seconds ahead of Nico Rosberg in the top Mercedes car.

Ferrari's quick laps around the Shanghai International Circuit led Sky Sports commentator David Croft to question during the broadcast whether Mercedes' streak of four straight poles in China was under threat.

But wasn't it just two weeks ago in Bahrain that we got excited by Ferrari's pace in FP3, when Vettel was nearly half-a-second quicker than Rosberg and his team-mate, Lewis Hamilton? And what happened as soon as qualifying began and the lap times actually counted?

Mercedes flipped a switch (or pressed a button) and suddenly Hamilton and Rosberg were a half-second ahead of the Ferraris.

Asked in the FIA press conference why the Mercs were suddenly so quick, Vettel responded, "I don’t know, you should ask them!"

Clearly, Mercedes have not been pushing their cars to the limit during free practice, confident in their pace when they need it. The team employed a similar strategy throughout winter testing, focusing on reliability rather than outright speed.

Chinese Grand Prix - “Quite a difficult day” https://t.co/UCeNww6tH9 pic.twitter.com/V2rR6b0mu0

— Scuderia Ferrari HP (@ScuderiaFerrari) April 15, 2016

After Friday's running in Shanghai, Raikkonen acknowledged Ferrari's strength on the super-soft tyres (the softest compound available), but said, per ESPN F1's Nate Saunders, "For whatever reason we've been quite struggling apart from the super-soft tyre. Our car is nice but it's just the other tyres are very difficult to get any grip from."

That was the polite version of his radio message while on the soft tyres, which was played on the broadcast, where he asked the team, "Do you really want that I keep going, because it's just absolute [censored]?"

While everyone will qualify on the super-soft tyres, Ferrari's struggles on the soft and medium compounds are not a great sign for those hoping to see the Scuderia challenge Mercedes in the race on Sunday.

There are a couple other factors that should boost the Italian team's confidence, though—or at least give them some hope. First, the BBC weather forecast is calling for rain in Shanghai throughout the day on Saturday.

VETTEL: "It's only Friday but it looks like we might be able to get closer [to Mercedes] in qualifying" #ChineseGP pic.twitter.com/WUMoTNEWgt

— Formula 1 (@F1) April 15, 2016

Poor weather during the qualifying session would not necessarily give Ferrari an advantage, but there would be a greater likelihood of driver errors producing some surprises on the grid. A wet track would also minimise the advantage Mercedes enjoy from their superior engine, as all the cars would be struggling for grip.

Still, Raikkonen was not overly excited (is he ever?) by the prospect of rain. "If it rains in qualifying and practice it changes the game a little bit but I don't think the end result will be affected an awful lot," he said in the Thursday press conference. "It will be more exciting, more difficult, we will see how it pans out."

The other positive news for Ferrari is the five-place grid penalty Hamilton will incur for changing his gearbox. The defending champion has won the last two races in China and qualified on pole for the last three.

So Maurizio, exactly how strong are Mercedes in 2016? #ChineseGP https://t.co/dgqvTbuIvd

— Formula 1 (@F1) April 15, 2016

The Shanghai circuit's two long straights offer plenty of overtaking opportunities, particularly with the DRS. But Hamilton will start no higher than sixth, and if his recent run of poor starts continues, it could leave him even further back after the first turn.

"It’s going to be an easy weekend for Nico for sure," Hamilton told the official F1 website. "But it doesn't mean I can't give him a good run for his money from wherever I start. I'll be pushing as hard as I can... It doesn't mean I can't win the race still, which is my thought process, rather than damage limitation."

Rosberg, meanwhile, has now won five races in a row and will present a formidable challenge to the Ferraris, whether Hamilton can catch them or not.

Ferrari may be closing the gap to Mercedes (or maybe not), but do not read too much into the Friday practice times. If Raikkonen and Vettel are still ahead on Saturday afternoon, then we can start talking about Ferrari taking their first victory of the 2016 season.

Until then, the Silver Arrows are still the clear favourites.

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The result of Sunday's Australian Grand Prix—a Mercedes one-two, followed by Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel—will look familiar and predictable to anyone with a cursory interest in Formula One over the last couple years. As at the U.S. Grand Prix last year, though, how those familiar results came about was anything but predictable.

In 2015, it took Ferrari and Vettel two races to spring a surprise on Mercedes. In Melbourne, it didn't even take two corners.

Throughout the offseason, the big question was: Could Ferrari catch Mercedes and end the Silver Arrows' two-year domination of the sport? After qualifying on Saturday, it seemed the answer was no.

Lewis Hamilton qualified on pole, nearly a second clear of Vettel in third. Nico Rosberg split them, 0.360 seconds behind Hamilton, in the other Merc. Not only was the new qualifying format "rubbish," as Mercedes executive director Toto Wolff told the Sky Sports television audience, but it appeared we were in for another Mercedes parade to the chequered flag on Sunday.

Then the race started.

While Hamilton moved slowly from his grid slot on the left, Vettel shot between the two Mercs and was clear of both as they entered the first corner. Rosberg locked his wheels under braking and clipped Hamilton's front wing, reminiscent of their incident at the 2014 Belgian Grand Prix, minus the puncture. That allowed Kimi Raikkonen, in the other Ferrari, to get a better run out of the corner and slip ahead into second place.

"I tried to just go for it in Turn 1, but Sebastian did a great job. He braked on the limit and so there was just no way to get into there on the inside, so I had to back out," Rosberg explained in the postrace press conference.

Even more shocking than the start was the fact that the Silver Arrows didn't immediately reel in the Ferraris. All that mileage in pre-season testing and their dominant qualifying performances were forgotten as Vettel completed the first lap 2.4 seconds ahead of Rosberg with Hamilton falling down to sixth place, behind Max Verstappen and Felipe Massa.

By Lap 11, just before Rosberg made his first pit stop, he was three-and-a-half seconds adrift of Vettel and about one second behind Raikkonen. 

Hamilton, who was stuck behind Verstappen and his year-old Ferrari engine, stayed out until Lap 16 before pitting. The race was thrown into chaos, again, two laps later.

Fernando Alonso clipped the back of Esteban Gutierrez's car as they approached Turn 3 at approximately 300 kph, launching his McLaren into an airborne roll before stopping upside down against a tyre barrier.

Red flag still out while debris is cleared. Both Alonso & Gutierrez walked away from the incident #AusGP pic.twitter.com/a8YpsiQZTl

— Formula 1 (@F1) March 20, 2016

"You see the sky, the ground, the sky, you want to stop," said Alonso afterward, describing the crash to the official F1 website.

"I saw a little space to go out and went out quickly—my mum will watch TV, so I want to be out quickly and say I am OK. But yeah it was quite a big one. I'm thankful to be here."

The race was red-flagged for 20 minutes while marshals cleaned the track, which proved fortuitous for Mercedes. Hamilton had already switched to medium tyres (the hardest compound available) at his pit stop and Rosberg did likewise during the stoppage, with the team figuring neither driver would need to stop again.

Both Ferraris, meanwhile, continued on supersoft tyres—ensuring they would need another pit stop later in the grand prix. 

"We didn't expect probably what both of them did, going on let's say the hardest compound and going to the end," Vettel explained on the podium. "So we tried to go more aggressive."

That decision likely cost Vettel the race.

Raikkonen retired on Lap 22, just after the restart, with flames shooting out of his air intake, while Vettel continued to lead Rosberg. Then, on Lap 35, Vettel made his inevitable pit stop, handing Rosberg a lead he would not relinquish.

LAP 24/57: The drama continues

Raikkonen's race is over - we don't really need to explain why... #AusGP pic.twitter.com/36whr7enPT

— Formula 1 (@F1) March 20, 2016

Vettel emerged from the pits approximately 10 seconds behind Hamilton, whose long run on the medium tyres left him trailing just Rosberg and Daniel Ricciardo (who eventually pitted as well, promoting Hamilton and Vettel to their final positions of second and third, respectively).

Rather than focusing on what could have been for Ferrari, though, let's look at what they have achieved. Specifically, their race pace (at least around the Albert Park circuit) is a match for the Silver Arrows.

It was not a speed deficit, but rather a poor strategy call that undid Vettel in Melbourne. That bodes particularly well for the rest of the season, as the biggest issue with the sport over the last two seasons has been the lack of competitiveness at the front of the grid.

When Vettel emerged from his last pit stop, it took him 15 laps to close the 10-second gap to Hamilton to under one second. Yes, he was on fresher and softer tyres, but he also held Rosberg at bay for the first 12 laps while they were on the same rubber.

If Vettel's Melbourne performance is indicative of Ferrari's true pace, Mercedes will have a real battle on their hands this year.

As happened to Hamilton last year in Monaco, human error cost Vettel a potential victory. And that is the F1 we love...unpredictable, exciting, without every result seemingly preordained and every decision made by computers and then quadruple-checked by other computers.

Not every race will be this close—that is also F1, love it or not—but after an offseason of uncertainty surrounding the sport's regulations and an embarrassing backtrack on the new qualifying format, the Australian Grand Prix was exactly what the sport needed.

Now, the travelling circus heads to Bahrain for Round 2—and it was the second round last year where Vettel pulled off his stunning first win for Ferrari. He won't be able to take the Mercs by surprise this time, but with the pace he showed in Melbourne, it may not matter.

All timing data is from the FIA's official website.

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The problem with high expectations is that they have a nasty habit of breeding disappointment.

Whenever you set yourself a clear, defined aim in any given task, it is human nature to become obsessed with meeting that goal, even to the extent where the pressure of those expectations can sometimes become all-consuming and ultimately counterproductive, distorting your sense of perspective.

Even if you fall just slightly short of your intended target, there is a tendency to rue what you didn't achieve rather than what you did; to torture yourself with those missed opportunities, rather than reflecting on the chances you did take.

To stare at the long road ahead, rather than celebrating how far you've come.

That, in many ways, was the true beauty of Ferrari's resurgence in the 2015 Formula One season.

After chewing up and spitting out two different team principals—not to mention a long-serving president and countless other high-profile staff members—over the course of the team's first winless season in two decades in 2014, Ferrari entered last year with no expectations whatsoever.

A very nice picture of Ferrari mechanics giving a round of applause to Vettel at the end of the test today :) #F1 pic.twitter.com/1NBM5LPY1H

— #DankeSeb ♡ (@sebvettelnews) February 2, 2015

The pre-season target of two grand prix wins set by Maurizio Arrivabene, according to ESPN F1's Nate Saunders, felt like a number plucked from thin air as this new-look team, cleansed from five years of underachievement with Fernando Alonso, were afforded the freedom to express themselves once more.

With a point to prove, but crucially without the overwhelming burden normally associated with a Ferrari team, they could rely on adventurous, aggressive thinking to rediscover the winning habit.

On the days it worked—most memorably Sebastian Vettel's three assured victories in Malaysia, Hungary and Singapore—Ferrari were a team reborn, revelling in the simple act of going motor racing again.

And when it didn't? When Seb had several off-track detours in Bahrain? When his tyre blew up in the closing laps at Spa? When both Ferraris retired in Mexico? It didn't really matter.

Just look at the results from 2014. Just look at how far they'd come.

In exceeding expectations so impressively last season, though, Ferrari have ensured more will be expected of them in 2016 than at any stage since their most recent championship triumph in 2008.

Yet rather than managing those expectations as effectively as they did in 2015, the team appear to be believing their own hype in the hope of a potential season-long battle with Mercedes.

At the penultimate round of 2015 in Brazil, where Vettel and team-mate Kimi Raikkonen were the only cars not to be lapped by Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton (but still finished some distance behind), Arrivabene told Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble how Ferrari "must be in front" of their rivals in 2016.

A fortnight later, at the Abu Dhabi GP, Vettel told Motorsport.com's Jamie Klein how Ferrari, tired of playing the "chaser," are determined to emerge as F1's "dominant force," winning not on the occasions Mercedes go missing but with the unblemished style he did during his four consecutive title successes with Red Bull.

And then there was Sergio Marchionne, the president, who warned his colleagues to be utterly "terrified" of failure in 2016, according to Noble.

It was a dangerous comment, not least because Arrivabene's biggest triumph in 2015 was removing the fear of failure that had smothered the Prancing Horse for so long, but it revealed much about Ferrari's confidence—their certainty—ahead of the upcoming season.

As technical expert Craig Scarborough told The Racer's Edge YouTube channel, Ferrari's ability to remain reasonably close to Mercedes throughout last season was a promising indication that they are now completely comfortable with the V6 turbo regulations.

Shell's claim that it was responsible for 25 per cent of the team's 2015 "performance gain"—supposedly worth 0.5 seconds per lap and 30 seconds over a race distance—was debatable but offered more evidence that Ferrari are fully aware of the demands of the current era and the importance of a strong bond between teams and fuel suppliers.

Perhaps Ferrari's biggest compliment in 2015 came from Toto Wolff, the Mercedes team boss, who told Noble that the world champions had been forced into considering an innovative approach with their 2016 car simply to maintain their status as F1's leading team.

While it is possible that Ferrari have succeeded in spooking Mercedes down the wrong development path, the team—who shared a wind-tunnel program with the new Haas team in 2015, according to Motor Sport Magazine's Mark Hughes—can also make significant gains with their own chassis this season.

Su Autosprint di questa settimana Craig Scarborough @ScarbsF1 illustra le novità tecniche della Ferrari F1 2016 pic.twitter.com/NioxYZyVEc

— Autosprint (@autosprint) January 13, 2016

James Allison, the technical director, is the master of creating seven-out-of-10 cars which perform excellently at most circuits in most conditions and exceptionally at other venues. Yet Ferrari's 2015 car was only rated as the "fourth- or fifth-best chassis" on the grid behind those of Mercedes, Red Bull, Toro Rosso and (arguably) McLaren-Honda, according to BBC Sport's Andrew Benson.

During last year, Allison discussed a number of areas for improvement, telling Sky Sports' William Esler how Ferrari considered reverting to push-rod suspension before prioritising other parts of the car, and revealing the position of the front bulkhead had harmed their pursuit of the short-nose concept adopted by their competitors, as noted by ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson.

Should Ferrari, now able to concentrate more on the details than the fundamentals, make those tweaks to the chassis and maintain their progress with the engine, the stage may be set for Vettel—with an entire team built around him—to challenge Hamilton and Rosberg.

Yet can we really expect Ferrari, who have won just 15 grands prix in the last seven seasons and set just one dry-weather pole position in five years, to fight head-to-head with a team who have won two drivers' and constructors' titles, 32 of a possible 38 races and set all but two poles since the beginning of 2014?

Are they strong and shrewd enough, both on and off the track, to threaten a team as formidable, consistent and diligent as Mercedes?

As noted last December, there was a sense that Ferrari were relying slightly more on their bravado than their brains come the end of last season, and, despite Marchionne's scaremongering, there would be no shame in finishing second-best to a team of Mercedes' calibre again this season.

Although Vettel should be waiting to pounce in the drivers' championship, particularly if Hamilton and Rosberg frequently take points away from each other, merely doubling his 2015 victory tally would resemble good progress ahead of bigger and better things in the coming years.

Hoping for the best but expecting relatively little will, much like last year, be the key to Ferrari's 2016.

And if that isn't enough? Just look at how far they've come.

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Sebastian Vettel versus Kimi Raikkonen was supposed to have been one of the highlights of the 2015 Formula One season.

A four-time world champion had arrived at Ferrari to partner a man with a single title—but who should really have had at least two. Both had seen their abilities questioned after being beaten by their team-mates the previous year, so both had massive points to prove.

Was Vettel really as good as his four consecutive titles had suggested, or had Daniel Ricciardo exposed him as a driver who had been flattered by exceptional machinery? Was Kimi Raikkonen really past it, or had the characteristics of the 2014 Ferrari magnified a small difference between him and Fernando Alonso?

Pre-season testing suggested the fight between the two would be a close contest, but once the season got under way, it became increasingly clear only one of the two would be forcing his critics to eat humble pie.

A rejuvenated Vettel convinced all but the most stubborn of fans that he is indeed one of the best of his generation. He won the second race of the season in brilliant fashion, added two more victories before the end of the year and stood on the podium a total of 13 times.

The German was third in the championship with 278 points—a respectable 44 down on second-placed Mercedes driver Nico Rosberg's total.

Raikkonen, by contrast, spent 2015 looking like a man in the twilight of his career, living off his past achievements and doing little to justify his place at a front-running team. He came close to winning the Bahrain Grand Prix when the two Mercedes hit trouble, but he was otherwise unimpressive.

The Finn only managed three podiums on his way to a distant fourth in the championship. He was closer to Vettel than he had been to Alonso, but he still scored a whopping 128 fewer points than his team-mate.

Vettel qualified ahead of Raikkonen 15 times from 19 attempts, finished ahead on 10 of the 14 occasions where both Ferraris reached the end and was the Scuderia's lead driver for 718 of the 963 laps they spent together on the track.

The two will again be partners at Ferrari for 2016—and it's difficult to see the season ahead being too different to the one just gone.

Vettel's impact on the Ferrari team was felt as soon as he arrived. The man he replaced, Alonso, had clearly become disillusioned with the team and no longer believed in their ability to build him a title-winning car.

He had so little faith that he chose to take a massive risk and joined McLaren-Honda—confidence among the Ferrari personnel cannot have been high.

But as soon as he was free of his Red Bull contract, Vettel set about trying to change that. After his first test for Ferrari—in a 2012 car—his delight at being a part of the team was clear.

He spoke to media after the run and was quoted by Sky Sports saying:

It was fantastic today to come here. I remember coming to Maranello as a little kid and trying to look over the fence so to be here officially as part of the team felt fantastic.

Looking back to the years when I was 11 or 12 years old and looking over the years trying to see a glimpse of Michael [Schumacher] running on the track and today I was on the track and I saw the Tifosi around. There is a lot of fairy tales about Ferrari and how it feels to drive a red car and so on and I can only confirm all these fairy tales. It is a true legend that exists and it feels really, really, special to become part of that.

An improved atmosphere at the team from the first test onward was noted by Motorsport.com, and speaking after seeing the SF15-T in action for the first time, team boss Maurizio Arrivabene showered the ultimate praise on his new star.

He told Italian journalist Leo Turrini (h/t Crash.net):

I was around in Michael [Schumacher]'s time and I confess that there are times when I look at Vettel and, in some ways, it really seems like a carbon copy of Schumi.

There are impressive similarities for those who have known both. We all hope that the results are the same as well.

Vettel had quickly immersed himself within the team and was shaping it around himself, as he had at Red Bull and as Schumacher had when he arrived at Ferrari in the mid-1990s. Success comes easier when you are seen as the focal point of the team's efforts, and even at that early stage, Vettel was establishing himself as the de facto No. 1 within Ferrari.

Raikkonen also noted the improved vibe at Maranello, telling press including F1i's Chris Medland that "everybody seems to be enjoying working here a bit more now."

The Finn had been very much the No. 2 at Ferrari in 2014, but after performing well in pre-season testing, especially over longer runs, he seemed to be in a stronger position for 2015. Autosport reported he felt the car was more suited to his style, and a significant 35 per cent of F1 Fanatic readers thought he would beat Vettel in 2015.

It was difficult to get a true idea of where the two Ferrari drivers were relative to one another in the early races. Vettel was definitely on top in qualifying, but race pace was a different story.

Raikkonen suffered first-lap contacts in both Australia and Malaysia that compromised his afternoons, and the unusual, tyre-saving-dominated Chinese Grand Prix gave few clues as to who was quicker. The Finn was definitely the better Ferrari driver in Bahrain, but it was the first time he had finished ahead all year—and he was yet to outqualify Vettel.

Regardless of the reasons behind his failure to shine, he was starting to look like a No. 2—and at the fifth race of the year, the Spanish Grand Prix, it became almost official.

The team had come up with a huge upgrade package, but this was only fully fitted to Vettel's car. Raikkonen revealed after the race that he had run the old specification for the benefit of the team.

He told press, including Autosport:

I think we learned a lot from going for two separate cars following on Saturday and Sunday so I'm more confident we can see things more balanced.

In a test, it's just the one car and you have to change a few things so sometimes the only way to do this and see the difference is to run with two cars at the same time on the circuit with different things.

I was prepared to take the risk and sacrifice the result a little bit but it is what it is.

If we can learn and we can speed up our knowledge that we gain then that will help us not doubt things so much.

The result hurt a bit but it was just the one race.

That he and the team were willing to sacrifice his race was telling, but not especially surprising. Ferrari were doing what Ferrari always do—putting all their eggs into one basket—and Vettel was going to be top chicken.

The rest of the season confirmed that he deserved the distinction. The four-time world champion was arguably the most consistent performer of the season and without question one of the drivers of the year.

Raikkonen continued to trail in his wake, rarely coming out on top in qualifying and, though the gap was smaller, finding it difficult to live with Vettel in the races. To fans who remember the Iceman at his peak—the mid-2000s, when he proved himself to be one of the most naturally gifted drivers of the last 30 years—this outclassed, outdriven Raikkonen was hardly recognisable.

And the worst thing of all is that it doesn't seem to bother him. He appears content to be a team player—a No. 2, a Rubens Barrichello to Vettel's Schumacher.

There's a fine line between laid-back and indifferent, and he appears to have crossed it.

When Ferrari announced he would be retained for 2016, the statements on the team website said nothing about performance and instead talked about the relationship between the drivers.

Arrivabene added:

We believe that extending Kimi’s contract into the next season will provide further stability to the team. This has been our guideline, also considering the very good relationship between Kimi and Seb. On our side, this shows our great confidence in him, and I expect this confidence to be well rewarded.

Raikkonen was retained because Ferrari see him as a safe, capable second driver who gets on well with Vettel and will not get in his way. The German's task is to win the world title; Raikkonen's is to provide support.

Despite everything 2015 told us, there's a possibility we'll see Raikkonen ahead on the track a little more often in 2016.

Qualifying has become his greatest weakness, but if Ferrari can find more tenths than the likes of Williams and Red Bull, the larger gap between the front two teams and the rest will mean Raikkonen should be able to start races closer to Vettel than he did in 2015.

And if he can get a better launch off the grid, he could easily be ahead going into Turn 1.

But if this happens at the wrong time, expect Raikkonen's very own version of "Fernando is faster than you" to ring out over the team radio. Vettel will remain the go-to guy for Ferrari; Raikkonen will be expected to provide covering fire and nothing more.

After around six or seven races, the annual "who'll replace the second Ferrari driver" game will begin, and Raikkonen's seat will once again be the subject of intense speculation. This time round, he'll probably jump before he is pushed.

Sky Sports F1 reported last year that Raikkonen will almost certainly retire when his Ferrari contact comes to an end, and that will happen at the end of the year.

Vettel, meanwhile, will motor on contently, knowing his own future with the Scuderia is safe and secure.

And the team will ensure that, unlike the situation at Mercedes between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, he won't have a pesky team-mate to deal with if he is able to challenge for the title—as Ferrari will be hoping.

Before his return to Ferrari for 2014, Kimi Raikkonen had finished ahead of his team-mate in the Formula One drivers' championship in all but three of his 11 seasons in the sport. The exceptions were his first two years in F1 and the 2008 season—the year after his lone world championship—when Felipe Massa outscored him and nearly won the title at the final race.

Even after the now-36-year-old Finn's hiatus in 2010 and 2011, he came back and won two races in two seasons for Lotus, finishing well ahead of Romain Grosjean both years.

But since Raikkonen re-signed with Ferrari for the 2014 season, which coincided with F1's introduction of V6 hybrid power units and new, lower-downforce aerodynamic regulations, he has been dominated by two successive team-mates.

Ferrari produced a much better car and engine in 2015 than the previous year, so Raikkonen's overall results were better than in 2014. But how much of that improvement is down to the car? Was he actually better relative to his team-mate and to the performance that could be expected from the Ferrari SF15-T?

Recently, Raikkonen told ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson: "It's not like suddenly I am becoming a worse driver. ... It has improved [since 2014], speed wise it is a lot better. It's not nice, but I have to say it: it has not been a very good year. It's still been a lot better than last year, but it's no fun sometimes when you are having a difficult time."

In 2014, Fernando Alonso outscored Raikkonen 161 to 55. Last year, Sebastian Vettel beat him 278 to 150.

Granted, Alonso and Vettel are two of the best drivers of their generation, but Raikkonen was in the same realm...was.

The past two years have put a dent in the Finn's reputation as he has struggled to get comfortable with the new generation of F1 cars. NBC commentator Will Buxton suggested on his personal blog in 2014 that Raikkonen was struggling with the new brake-by-wire system and Ferrari's power steering.

In 2015, Raikkonen felt more comfortable, as Ferrari team principal Maurizio Arrivabene pushed his team to build a car that better-suited the 2007 champion's driving style, per Autosport's Ben Anderson and Lawrence Barretto.

Looking at the point totals, this seems to have paid off. Alonso more than tripled Raikkonen's score in 2014 and Vettel not-quite-doubled the Finn's points-haul last season.

And look at Raikkonen's average finishing position relative to his team-mates' (excluding all DNFs and races where a driver was classified but did not actually finish the race).

Season	Driver	Average Finishing Position
2014	Fernando Alonso	5.41
	Kimi Raikkonen	9.17
2015	Sebastian Vettel	2.82
	Kimi Raikkonen	4.79

In 2014, Raikkonen finished an average of more than 3.5 places behind Alonso. Last year, he cut the gap to Vettel to fewer than two places.

Raikkonen's 2015 performance was also more in line with what could be expected from his car. That might be surprising, given the SF15-T was the clear second-best car on the grid and he only finished in the top four eight times in 19 races, but it is true.

In 2014, Ferrari had the third- or, more likely, fourth-best car on the grid (they finished fourth in the constructors' standings, although had Raikkonen matched Alonso's performance, they would have challenged Williams for third).

Therefore, Ferrari could have expected to finish seventh and eighth each race, assuming no retirements ahead of them. Yet Raikkonen's average finishing position was 9.17 (and remember, his own retirements do not affect that number—they are excluded from the calculation). 

With the second-best car in 2015, Ferrari could reasonably expect third- and fourth-place finishes. Raikkonen didn't quite meet that average, but he was closer than in 2014.

So yes, a more competitive car obviously helped Raikkonen improve on his 2014 results, but he also performed better—both relative to his team-mate and relative to what could be expected from his car.

What does that improvement tell us for 2016?

Well, it demonstrates that Raikkonen's skills have not entered some irreversible decline. He had trouble adjusting to the new cars in 2014, but he adapted and was more comfortable in 2015.

There may still be better options out there if Ferrari are looking to maximise their position in the constructors' table, but Raikkonen's performance did not hurt the team last year the way it did in 2014.

And if Raikkonen can continue his improvement in 2016, as he becomes even more comfortable with the new breed of F1 cars, Ferrari could be in position to finally challenge Mercedes on a regular basis. F1 needs its stars fighting at the front, and Raikkonen is one of the most popular drivers on the grid—as the results of the Grand Prix Drivers Association's fan survey showed last year.

If he wins, the sport wins, and Raikkonen's 2015 results should give his many fans hope that we may see him on the top step of the podium a few more times before the end of his career.

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It has come to something when merely remaining on the same lap as the race winners is the sure sign of a team on course for great things.

Having recovered from their first winless season in 21 years in 2014 to claim three grand prix victories, 13 further podium finishes and even a pole position—arguably the greatest achievement of all—in 2015, Ferrari have plenty of reasons to celebrate as Formula One begins its winter break.

Yet despite Sebastian Vettel's surprise triumph in the second round in Malaysia, the smash-and-grab afternoon in Hungary and that dominant weekend under the night sky in Singapore, none of Ferrari's victories were met with quite the same levels of excitement and encouragement as one of their most damning defeats.

At November's Brazilian Grand Prix, just a fortnight after their worst performance of the season in Mexico, Ferrari were comprehensively outclassed by Mercedes, the two-time constructors' world champions.

In qualifying, per the official F1 website, Vettel's best time in Q3, despite earning him third place on the grid, was 0.522 seconds slower than Nico Rosberg's pole-position lap, while team-mate Kimi Raikkonen was forced to settle for fifth after being beaten by Williams' Valtteri Bottas.

Mercedes' advantage continued into the race as Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton, on one of the shortest circuits on the calendar, sped away into the distance, lapping every other driver in the field.

Except, of course, those in scarlet red.

Although Vettel and Raikkonen were the only ones spared the indignity of moving aside for the Silver Arrows, Ferrari were hardly in contention for victory at Interlagos as the former finished 14 seconds behind Rosberg and the latter almost 46 seconds adrift of first place.

But to them, this seemed to be further evidence that they were moving in the right direction, that they were edging ever closer to a return to the summit of the sport.

After crossing the finish line, per the official F1 website, Vettel commented over pit-to-car radio that Brazil was "probably one of the best races we had this year," claiming that, "at best," Ferrari "had the same pace" as Mercedes.

Meanwhile, technical director James Allison—normally among the more measured, eloquent thinkers in the paddock—told Motorsport.com's Adam Cooper how Ferrari "never at any point made (Mercedes) break out into a sweat" before suggesting their rivals had "only got a whisker on us here" and predicting the team's 2016 season will be "exciting, daunting, but thrilling."

Allison's enthusiasm, however, was nothing compared to that of his team principal, Maurizio Arrivabene, who went on to tell Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble how his "honest expectation" for 2016 "is not to be closer to (Mercedes) but to be in front of them."

"I will tell you with humility, but being closer—we are closer even now. We must be in front next year," he declared.

Arrivabene's success in restoring confidence to Ferrari, in reminding a group of people left disillusioned and directionless at the end of 2014 that they are representing the most successful team in the history of Formula One, has been at the heart of their resurgence in 2015.

His presence, as a man with limited experience in motorsport before being handed one of the most challenging jobs of all, ridicules the notion that good racing teams need to be run by "good racing people."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZtzR6NMQ64

And perhaps his previous life as a Philip Morris salesman has indirectly played a role in his achievements thus far, allowing him to introduce fresh, expressive thinking and good, old-fashioned common sense to what had been a stifling, volatile environment prior to his arrival.

Yet there is a danger that the Arrivabene effect may soon become counterproductive for a team currently relying slightly more on their bravado than their brains.

We have witnessed it at various points throughout 2015, from Riccardo Adami using Vettel's victory in Malaysia as an opportunity to remind us "Ferrari's back!"—as heard on the Italian manufacturer's official YouTube channel—to Dave Greenwood badgering Raikkonen on the final lap of October's Russian GP.

Seconds after being told it was "all or nothing," per the official F1 website, Raikkonen launched a half-hearted move on Bottas, punting the Williams into the crash barriers and earning himself a 30-second post-race penalty when—had he been managed in a smarter, calmer and more efficient manner—he may have reached the podium.

After two years of Mercedes dominance, which has seen Hamilton and Rosberg win 32 of a possible 38 races between them, there is an ever-growing, widespread desire for Ferrari to emerge as a major force and make the world champions work tirelessly for their wins at the very least.

And, with the tifosi behind them, the "Il Canto degli Italiani" ringing in their ears and that most iconic of emblems on their chest, Ferrari seem compelled to deliver what the watching world wants so badly.

In the aftermath of those bold, post-Brazil claims, however, it was strangely satisfying to see the team offered a reality check at last weekend's Abu Dhabi GP, where Vettel was eliminated from Q1 after what he told the Press Association's Phil Duncan (h/t MailOnline) was a "costly" misjudgment.

That error, coupled with Ferrari's pace relative to Rosberg and Hamilton (as we noted after the race), only confirmed the team, for all the rhetoric, continue to lack the operational flawlessness demonstrated by Mercedes since the beginning of 2014.

As his colleagues allowed themselves to dream of title triumphs, it was left to Raikkonen—ever the realist—to act as the voice of reason, telling Motorsport.com's Noble how he's "been around long enough to know" the "amazing" numbers seen in the factory do not always translate to the brutally unforgiving surface of a racetrack.

The notion that their best may still not be quite good enough is unthinkable for a Ferrari team who, without a championship of any kind since 2008, have never looked closer to a return to the top.

But while the Prancing Horse have rediscovered their swagger in 2015, there is still a long, long way to go.

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After last weekend's Brazilian Grand Prix, Ferrari team principal Maurizio Arrivabene spoke about his outlook for the 2016 Formula One season and his team's fight with back-to-back champions Mercedes.

"If you want my honest expectation, it's not to be closer to them but to be in front of them," he said, per Sky Sports' Mike Wise. "I tell you with humility but we are closer even now; we must be in front next year."

If that really is Ferrari's forecast—that they will be challenging the Silver Arrows for the world championship—have they made a mistake retaining Kimi Raikkonen alongside Sebastian Vettel for next year?

It depends on the team's priorities.

If Ferrari's first goal is for Vettel to win the drivers' championship, then keeping his friend around—the one who has finished ahead of him just three times in 18 grands prix this year—is a smart choice. It keeps Vettel happy while ensuring his team-mate does not steal too many points from him as he hunts down the Mercedes duo (or, more realistically, Lewis Hamilton).

Raikkonen is 36 years old and his skills are slowly fading. That is not meant as an insult, it's just a fact. F1 drivers, like all athletes, do not last forever, and the sport's newest rookie sensation, Max Verstappen, was three years old when Raikkonen made his debut with Sauber in 2001.

As athletes near the age of 40, their abilities generally decline. Even Michael Schumacher, another great Ferrari driver, won his last championship at 35. In his three comeback seasons with Mercedes, starting at age 41, he was handily outscored by his team-mate, Nico Rosberg.

Maybe you read it at the time, but consider again Arrivabene's statement when the team extended Raikkonen's contract for 2016:

We believe that extending Kimi’s contract into the next season will provide further stability to the team. This has been our guideline, also considering the very good relationship between Kimi and Seb. On our side, this shows our great confidence in him, and I expect this confidence to be well rewarded.

No talk of wins or championships, but rather stability and a reference to Raikkonen and Vettel's friendship. It's not the most inspiring of quotes, and the last part sounds vaguely menacing: We've kept you around, now you better deliver.

While Mercedes are actively striving for parity in the treatment of their drivers, not willing to favour either one, Ferrari have usually had a clear No. 1 driver, at least since the Schumacher days. Vettel is clearly in that role now—the man expected to return the Italian team to glory.

However, if Ferrari's top priority is the constructors' championship, then keeping Raikkonen could hurt their chances of winning. With one race remaining this season, Williams' Valtteri Bottas is one point ahead of Raikkonen, despite Raikkonen having the better car. (Bottas might be even further ahead had he not missed the first race of the year with a back injury and had Raikkonen not clumsily taken him out at the end of the Russian Grand Prix.)

If the goal is to maximise the team's points, then retaining Raikkonen is not the best option.

Perhaps Ferrari believe the same thing. After all, Williams' deputy team principal Claire Williams revealed, per ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson, that Ferrari showed interest in signing Bottas over the summer. The interest, at least from Williams' point of view, was not reciprocal. 

Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo and Force India's Nico Hulkenberg—more drivers with superstar potential—have also been linked to the Scuderia, as noted by BBC F1 pundit James Allen on his personal website.

Hulkenberg, at 28, is the oldest of that trio, but is still eight years younger than Raikkonen. Any of them would offer more upside than Raikkonen, although the Finn is a known quantity for Ferrari (hence Arrivabene's reference to stability within the team).

Maybe we don't have to guess at Ferrari's priorities, though. By extending Raikkonen's contract, perhaps they have revealed that keeping Vettel happy and winning the drivers' championship is their first goal for next year.

The drivers' championship is the original F1 title and is inherently more prestigious. It is the drivers' champion who has the option of using No. 1 on his car the following year, even if he switches teams. (Hamilton has opted to keep his No. 44, even after winning the title.) Meanwhile, the constructors' championship did not even exist for the first eight seasons of F1.

However, prize money payouts are determined by the constructors' standings, so the argument could easily be made that they are more important, if not prestigious. But as longtime F1 reporter Joe Saward recently demonstrated, Ferrari's F1 programme is quite healthy financially. If they want to sacrifice one or two places in the constructors' table to nab their first drivers' title since Raikkonen won it in 2007, they have the resources to do it.

So, have Ferrari made a mistake retaining Raikkonen for 2016?

If a happy Vettel brings home the drivers' championship, then the answer will be a resounding "No!" But if Mercedes and Ferrari are locked in a tight race and, for example, Hamilton edges Vettel for the drivers' title and Raikkonen's inability to keep pace with his team-mate ends up costing the team the constructors' championship? Well, then the answer to that question would be slightly different.

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Sebastian Vettel's blood-red Ferrari shone brightly in the Singapore night on Sunday, en route to his third victory of the 2015 Formula One season.

Vettel appeared to toy with his nearest pursuer—former team-mate Daniel Ricciardo—as he bolted to an early lead in the Singapore Grand Prix and then held it through two safety car periods, including one when a fan darted across the track in front of him and then casually strolled past several other cars before climbing through a gap in the protective fencing.

Despite Mercedes' season-long dominance, Vettel's win keeps him peripherally in the championship hunt, 49 points behind Lewis Hamilton—who retired with a turbo problem, per ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson—and now just eight points adrift of Nico Rosberg.

With six races remaining, Vettel remains a long, long, long shot for the title—but there he is. In the last five races, his results are: third, first, DNF (which could have been third, had his tyre held on for another lap), second and first.

However, despite that impressive run of form, Vettel has gained exactly nothing relative to Hamilton in those five races, with both drivers scoring 83 points.

Asked on the podium whether Ferrari can catch Mercedes this year, Vettel responded: "If we have more weekend like this, yes. But all we have to do is look after ourselves, maximum attack and then what they do is not in our hands. We still have a small chance, maybe we can make the impossible possible; we'll definitely go for it."

After starting the season with a perfect finishing record at 11 straight grands prix, Mercedes demonstrated at the last two races that they are not, in fact, bulletproof. Rosberg retired from the Italian Grand Prix when his engine failed spectacularly. In Singapore, television viewers heard Hamilton pleading with his team to find a solution to what he thought was a throttle problem as he dropped to the back of the field before eventually retiring the car.

Even so, the defending champion still has nearly two race wins (worth 25 points each) in his pocket, and no one on the team seemed overly concerned on Sunday night.

"It's still a long way to go and I know I lost some points today, but I was fast and on form and I will make sure I bring that out to Suzuka to fight back!" Hamilton said, according to a team press release.

His boss, Toto Wolff, said, "You cannot write it off and say it was a one-off. On the other hand you cannot say we are terrified now; then you go into panic mode and that would be inappropriate and wrong," per the BBC's Andrew Benson.

Hamilton is still in control, but Vettel and Ferrari's form will certainly cause some concern at Mercedes, though they may not express it publicly.

The Scuderia has already surpassed team principal Maurizio Arrivabene's goal of two victories this year and, even if Vettel does not chase Hamilton right to the wire in 2015, there is every reason to believe Ferrari will present a strong challenge to the Silver Arrows next year.

Vettel's two most recent victories have come at the Hungaroring and Marina Bay in Singapore—two circuits with similar characteristics, including lots of low-speed corners.

With plenty of fast turns, next weekend's race at Suzuka in Japan will be another measure of Ferrari's improvement. If they can legitimately challenge Hamilton and Rosberg there, it will be a sign they are not dependent on certain track types or perfect conditions to take the fight to Mercedes.

More likely, though, the Mercs will be back in their familiar positions at the head of the field.

With Mercedes winning 26 of the 32 races since the beginning of F1's hybrid era in 2014, it is tempting to get overexcited when anyone produces a different result. But the team from Brackley is still well ahead of everyone else.

We just checked... "bouncebackability" is in the dictionary... Official pic.twitter.com/wN4fMF1zPf

— Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team (@MercedesAMGF1) September 20, 2015

As Vettel's team-mate, Kimi Raikkonen, said in the post-race press conference, "I think everybody's surprised where they've been all weekend and who knows what happens in the next race."

"I guess they should be back in Suzuka," Vettel continued. "If they're not, in all honesty we don't mind."

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It was at the Singapore Grand Prix in 2012 where Lewis Hamilton's love story with Mercedes first began.

Pole position at Marina Bay, a fortnight after his third win of the campaign at Monza, appeared to paper over the cracks forming in his increasingly strained relationship with McLaren.

But his retirement from the lead of the race after just 22 laps widened those cracks beyond repair—it wasn't the first time his car had ruined his good work that year.

As he walked away and into the shadows, Hamilton knew this was the final straw, that the people who turned him into the youngest-ever world champion just four years earlier were now obstructing him from further success.

Mercedes knew it too and acted quickly and opportunistically, selling him a dream and offering Hamilton the inspiration, the sense of purpose and possibility he had been starved of at McLaren.

A deal to join the Silver Arrows for 2013 was announced just five days later.

Making a crucial, potentially career-defining decision in the immediate aftermath of a crushing disappointment carries a huge element of risk for any athlete, particularly one as emotional and impulsive as a 27-year-old Hamilton.

Yet as they returned to the scene of where it all started for this weekend's race, both driver and team had the chance to reflect upon how far they'd come in such a short period of time and how much they have achieved since their three-year plan was established in September 2012. 

And, of course, it offered them the opportunity to underline their recent success by equalling two of the most coveted, long-standing qualifying records in F1, per Sky Sports' live commentary.

Hamilton, now one short of equalling his boyhood idol Ayrton Senna's tally of 41 grand prix victories, entered the one-hour session with a shot of matching the Brazilian's record of eight consecutive pole positions, having started every race since May's Monaco GP from the front of the grid.

With Mercedes dominating every Saturday since July 2014, the German manufacturer could have equalled a team record of 24 straight poles, first achieved by Williams over the course of 1992 and '93 with what, until recently, were regarded as the most technologically advanced cars the sport had ever seen.

Yet just like Singapore 2012, the evening didn't go to plan.

.@LewisHamilton on what went wrong: "Tyres. The tyres aren't working on our car. It's very strange" #SingaporeGP pic.twitter.com/soNnld3W1F

— Formula 1 (@F1) September 19, 2015

Mercedes' bizarre lack of pace in the arena in which they've excelled since the beginning of the V6 turbo era—as a result of tyre troubles, Hamilton told Sky Sports' Mike Wise—left the reigning world champion, restricted to just a single flying lap in Q3 after a mistake ruined his initial run, fifth on the grid.

And just like Singapore 2012, it was Sebastian Vettel who claimed the result supposedly reserved for Hamilton.

Vettel's first pole position for Ferrari—the team's first dry-weather pole in exactly five years—is hugely significant for a number of reasons, not least because, as Jenson Button told Sky Sports' Pete Gill, a competitive field is "exactly what the sport needs" at a time F1 risks becoming a one-man show.

Yet the German's return to the very tip of the grid was the final act in terms of repairing his reputation.

After suffering the first winless season of his career in 2014, Vettel, in the eyes of many, entered 2015 needing to prove that his four championship triumphs with Red Bull Racing between 2010 and '13 were not the acts of a passenger behind the wheel of the fastest car but of a supremely talented racing driver.

And after returning to winning ways in just his second race for the Prancing Horse, in Malaysia, and proving that was no fluke by claiming victory from third on the grid in Hungary—as well as producing several other impressive performances—a first pole position since 2013 sealed his redemption, leaving him with nothing to prove to anyone.

It has also offered a timely reminder that Vettel remains the fastest driver in F1 over a single lap.

Watching a Vettel pole lap, there is a calm restlessness, a flamboyant smoothness and a certain sense of seamless speed that is unrivalled by any current driver. 

The sheer sight of Vettel hustling his car, attacking the kerbs and swishing his steering wheel, especially in Singapore—where, in 2013, the German was so relentlessly quick that former team owner Giancarlo Minardi suggested his car may have been running with traction control—rubbishes the notion that modern F1 struggles to stimulate the senses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OC-H8CZ0qUw

Unlike other drivers, who sometimes claim strong results with unspectacular-looking laps, the visual clues provided by Vettel always translate into the eventual lap time. His pole-setting effort—"a near perfect lap," he told Motorsport.com's Pablo Elizalde—was an astonishing but unsurprising 0.543 seconds quicker than second-placed Daniel Ricciardo, per the official F1 website.

With 11 pole positions in the first 12 races of 2015, Hamilton may have already secured this season's FIA Pole Trophy, and he may have come within touching distance of Senna's record—the kind of accolade his partnership, his journey and his dominance with Mercedes deserves to be associated with.

But it is Vettel, a pole-setter again, who is F1's real King of Qualifying.

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