Iowa Hawkeyes Basketball

After both of these teams lost to Michigan last week, this becomes a crucial game in the Big Ten standings. The third-place Iowa Hawkeyes look to keep close to the second-place Michigan State Spartans.

Both teams rate in the top 14 teams according to power rankings, and the computer likes the home team to win here.

Point spread

Iowa opened as 5.5-point favorites, but the line was bet up a half point by mid-morning. The total was 150. (Line updates and matchup report details)

Computer prediction

80-74 Iowa

Why Michigan State can cover the spread

Resiliency. As banged up as the Spartans are, their bench proved they can step up for head coach Tom Izzo. Minus Branden Dawson (hand) and Adreian Payne (foot) and with star Keith Appling dealing with a sore hip and a painful wrist injury on his right shooting hand, they still were tied with Michigan with less than four minutes left.

Why Iowa can cover the spread

A home win tonight is critical if Iowa has aspirations of winning the Big Ten regular-season championship. The Hawkeyes (16-4 overall, 5-2 Big Ten) are aiming for a school-record 21st straight victory at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and there might not be a better team to get motivated for than perennial favorite Michigan State.

The Hawkeyes have covered five of their last six games.

Power rankings

Michigan State dropped to No. 7, while Iowa climbed to No. 14 in this week’s Odds Shark college basketball power numbers.

Smart pick

The Hawkeyes are catching Michigan State (18-2, 7-1) at the right time, as the Spartans still are dealing will the absences of Dawson and Payne. Dawson broke a bone in his right hand last Thursday. Payne didn't play the past five games due to his foot injury. Missing both proved to be too much against Michigan on Saturday. Appling, however, plans to play against Iowa.

Against this deep and talented Iowa squad, not to mention the thought of Georgetown on deck Feb. 1, the Spartans are inevitably headed toward another conference setback. That’s what the computer says, and that’s what the oddsmakers believe.

The head-to-head trends point to an UNDER here.

Trends

• Michigan State is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 games.
• Iowa has lost six straight and nine of 10 overall against the Spartans.
• Seven of past eight meetings here have played UNDER the total.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

The Iowa Hawkeyes National Invitation Tournament title hopes ended Thursday night at Madison Square Garden, as Baylor earned its first NIT title in school history, 74-54.

Iowa was simply outplayed by Baylor and struggled to contain Pierre Jackson, Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin on the defensive end. The Hawkeyes led just once in the game, which occurred at the 18:39 mark of the first half when they led 2-0. 

Iowa was out of control offensively in the first half. They moved the ball too quickly up court and made costly mistakes, which resulted in eight turnovers. Even though the Hawks struggled on offense, they were down just 27-22 at the end of the first half. 

The Hawkeyes hung in the game for the first few minutes of the second half, but after Jackson drained a three-pointer with 16:43 remaining, the game seemed to be out of reach.  

Jackson scored 13 points in the second half and recorded his fourth consecutive double-double with 17 points and 10 assists. Jefferson also caught fire by recording 19 of his 23 points in the second half.

Baylor was more physical down low, with Austin leading the way with nine rebounds, and much quicker in transition offensively. The Hawks were not quick enough to shutdown a talented Baylor squad that under-performed this season. 

Not only did Iowa have trouble defensively, they shot just 26.1 percent from the field, where as Baylor shot an impressive 54.2 percent. It’s difficult to win games when you have that low of a shooting percentage against a team of Baylor's caliber. 

The Bears were expected to be a Big 12 title contender this season, but underachieved and lost multiple games they should have won. An NIT title was a bittersweet ending for Jackson and his Baylor Bears.

Jackson will likely be drafted into the NBA come June. 

Unlike Baylor, who had higher expectations this season, the Hawkeyes were not projected to accomplish much this year. They were in a Big Ten conference that boasted five heavyweight teams, including Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. 

Iowa finished the season 25-13 and proved to be a program on the rise under third year head coach Fran McCaffery. The Hawkeyes are a young team with a lot of talent. Leading scorers Roy Devyn Marble and Aaron White will return next season, along with talented freshman, Mike Gesell, who continues to impress in every game he plays in. 

The Hawkeyes are going to be much tougher than people think next season and will be in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006. 

When the Iowa Hawkeyes take the court Thursday night for the championship of the NIT, they'll play their final game of this season and begin the road forward to the 2013-14 campaign.

But before looking forward, the Hawkeyes have business to take care of on the world famous hardwood of Madison Square Garden. Iowa is playing to win their first NIT title in the program's history.

Some Iowa fans felt they were robbed of a spot in the Big Dance. Many have went as far as to say regardless of what happens Thursday night, a first round loss in the NCAA tournament would have been a bigger success than playing for the NIT title. 

While I can understand the view, with a team like this, it just is not true. If the Hawkeyes were an older team with more than one scholarship senior on the roster, then perhaps that would be the case. But with this current crop of Iowa hoopsters, winning four games in a tournament format has not only allowed them to compete for an NIT title, it has provided other benefits as well.

For starters, Iowa has won four games on different ESPN networks. With the exception of the Stony Brook game, which was on a Friday night, up against Florida Gulf Coast upsetting Georgetown, Iowa’s games have been broadcast on nights with very little else on for sports lovers. The NBA, now post-Heat streak, is just biding time until the playoffs, and the MLB just got underway three days ago. The NIT operates in a bit of a sports lull time, which is good exposure for the teams playing.

Iowa’s four games have not been boring either.  In their two home wins, Iowa played in front of sold-out crowds of 15,400 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena both nights.  Being one of those 15,000-plus, I can say with certainty, those were not docile crowds.  The Hawkeye faithful were out in full force and wanted the wins as badly as they had for any games all year.

Their other two games came against ACC opponents who also felt they deserved a NCAA tournament bid.  This is the exposure that Iowa needs.  Iowa State hasn’t been in the news since getting beat by Aaron Craft’s buzzer beater.  Illinois is nowhere to be found.  Minnesota has had their coaching issues, as has Northwestern. Nebraska has been done for weeks. Wisconsin hasn’t been heard from since being upset by Ole Miss. Yet, Iowa is still playing games for a national audience. Exposure is huge in the recruiting wars of today’s game, and Iowa is getting plenty of it.

Another obvious benefit is the growth of this team. Suddenly, Iowa has learned how to close out games. They have been jumping out to good leads and keeping those leads with smarter basketball than was seen earlier in the season.

Devyn Marble has emerged as a legitimate star. He has taken command of this offense, and with his deadly step-back jumper, has turned into an elite scorer. 

The young guys, such as Adam Woodbury have gained two weeks of extra practice and high-profile games against stiff competition. Woodbury and Gabe Olaseni tested their skills against Alex Len, Maryland’s big man and projected lottery pick, and didn’t shy away one bit.

Only good things can come of playing extra games, on national TV, against good teams.

Iowa has embraced the NIT and rode Devyn Marble’s hot hand, Eric May’s leadership and Fran McCaffery’s seemingly perfect adjustments to the NIT title game in Madison Square Garden Thursday night, In the grand scheme of things, the benefits may go far beyond the “World’s Most Famous Arena,” and carry over to next year’s already anticipated run to the Big Dance.

As a good warm up for the start of the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 round this Thursday night, one of four NIT quarterfinal games will pit the No.3 Iowa Hawkeyes against the No.1 Virginia Cavaliers at John Paul Jones Arena. Wednesday night’s game is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. (ET), and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.

Iowa advanced through the first two rounds of the NIT with a 68-52 romp of Indiana State as an 11-point favorite followed by a 75-63 victory over Stony Brook this past Friday as an 8.5-point favorite. The total went “over” the 134.5-point line in its last outing after staying “under” seven of its last nine games.

Virginia bounced back from its NCAA tournament snub with a 67-56 win over Norfolk State as a 16-point favorite and a 68-50 rout of St. John’s this past Sunday as a 10.5-point favorite. The total stayed under in both contests and has now stayed under in five of their last six games.

Iowa at Virginia Betting Storylines

The Hawkeyes finished 23-12 straight up overall and 9-9 in Big Ten play this season, which were better marks than both Illinois and Minnesota, which made the NCAA tournament field of 68. They are averaging 70.4 points a game and remained ranked 10^th in the nation in rebounds with 39.4 a game. Iowa has also been profitable to wager on after covering against the spread in nine of its last 10 games.

Roy-Devyn Marble pumped in 28 points in the win over Stony Brook after scoring a game-high 24 points against Indiana State. He led Iowa this season with 14.1 points a game, but he struggled at times shooting the ball in hitting 40.7 from the field and 33.8 percent from three-point range. The Hawkeyes averaged 70.4 points a game and shot 42.2 percent from the field. They did a decent job on defense by holding teams to 62.6 points a game.

Virginia recorded SU wins over North Carolina, NC State and Duke this season, but it also had its share of bad losses, which ultimately cost it a spot in the NCAA tournament field. Determined to make the most of their situation, the Cavaliers have played to their potential in both NIT outings so far. They will have the benefit of the home-town crowd at John Paul Jones Arena, where they have gone a perfect 20-0 this season SU and 14-3-1 ATS. 

Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell are the team’s primary scorers with a combined average of 29.7 points, which is close to half of the team’s total of 64 points a game. Virginia is shooting 45.6 percent from the field. However, where the Cavaliers have really excelled is on the defensive side of the ball. They are allowing an average of just 55 points a game, which is the fourth lowest total in the country.

Iowa at Virginia NIT Betting Odds and Trends by BetOnline

BetOnline has opened Virginia as a 4.5-point home favorite with the over/under line set at 123.

The Hawkeyes are 5-3 ATS in their last eight road games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs. The total has stayed under in seven of their last nine road games.

The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites but 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at home. The total has stayed under in their last five games as favorites.

College Basketball Picks: Iowa vs. Virginia Betting Predictions

These teams match up well against one another. And while Iowa should have a pretty big advantage under the boards, the Cavaliers’ shut-down defense, especially on their home court, should prove to be just too much to overcome. While Virginia continues to give the NCAA tournament selection committee something to think about as it heads to the NIT semifinals; the Hawkeyes will not go down quietly and remain the play in this game with the 4.5 points.

Take # 779 Iowa (+4.5) over Virginia (Wednesday, March 27, 7 p.m.)

Yesterday at Carver Hawkeye Arena, Devyn Marble may finally have broken out of his slump.

Marble put up 21 points on 8-for-13 shooting to go along with five rebounds and five assists.  Perhaps most importantly, he did this while playing 30 minutes.

While those numbers are not eye-popping, they are very good.  When put in context of what he has been able to accomplish as of late, they are excellent.

When Marble has his offensive game going, the Iowa offense is a different animal.  There is much more ball movement, more confidence and just flat out more points.

In Iowa's previous five games, in which the Hawkeyes went 1-4, Marble's high scoring mark was 12 points on 2-for-11 shooting at Purdue.  He hadn't reached five rebounds in any of those games either.  In Iowa's previous two games before Northwestern, at Minnesota and Wisconsin, Marble played only 17 and 18 minutes, respectively, and scored two points.  That is two points combined.

This is not to say Iowa can not win when Marble doesn't play well.  He didn't play at all against Michigan State, and Iowa had a lead in the final minutes of that game, which has become a common theme.  The Hawks should have won one or both of the games against Minnesota and Wisconsin and would have if it were not for last minute breakdowns.

In the losses at Ohio State and Purdue, Marble shot 2-for-11 in both games, and both were single-digit losses on the road, with the Purdue loss coming in overtime.

So yes, Iowa can win without an effective Devyn Marble, but it sure makes things a lot harder.  They have won a couple big games when Marbe has no-showed.  Against Iowa State, for example, Marble had only six points, four rebounds and two assists in 37 minutes.  Yet, Iowa knocked off their in-state foe despite Marble's struggles.

How different has Marble performed in the Iowa wins and losses?  In Iowa's 15 wins, Marble is averaging 15 points per game, while in the nine losses, he is putting up only 8.7 points.  Five of those losses were by less than six points. 

Games in which Marble scores 13 or more points, Iowa is averaging 76 points per game, while in games where he has scored less than 13, Iowa is only at 64.1 points per game.

Of course, Iowa is not invincible when Marble does play well. In two of those losses, against Virginia Tech and Indiana, Marble played two of his better all-around games of the season.  Against the Hokies he had an impressive 18 points, seven assists and seven boards, while against Indiana, he had 14 points and nine rebounds. 

Obviously, a lot of other factors come into play in each game and each possession.  But it is pretty clear, both by the numbers and by the old-fashioned eye test, how much better Iowa is offensively when Marble has some semblance of offensive confidence.

Last year, when Iowa won some crucial road games against the likes of Wisconsin and Minnesota, it was Devyn Marble who was the closer.  Marble is the best option on the Iowa roster at creating his own shot and slashing into the lane for either a jumper or a dish off to an open teammate.

It is too late to think of what could have been in Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin had Marble performed like he is capable of.  There is still time for Iowa to go on a nice month-long run and make a play to be on the bubble come March, but it starts and ends with Devyn Marble.

If the marble from Saturday shows up, Iowa could see 20 wins.  If the Marble from Minnesota shows up, Iowa will be lucky to get to 18 wins.  Eric May, the lone senior, may be the captain, but it is time for Marble to take the reins of this team in February and into March.