Iowa Hawkeyes Basketball

The Iowa Hawkeyes Men's Basketball team travels to Madison tonight to take on Bo Ryan's Wisconsin squad. 

Over the last couple seasons these two teams have been involved in some intense, defensive-minded games.  Tonight may be the most important of those meetings from Iowa's standpoint.

Some are calling this a "must-win" for the Hawkeyes.  But is this truly a game the Hawkeyes must have to have any chance of being on the bubble come March?

Let's examine the remaining schedule before looking at tonight's matchup.

Including Wisconsin, the Hawks have nine games remaining before the Big Ten Tournament.

They have five games at home in Carver Hawkeye Arena, where they have played very well this year, only losing two close games to Indiana and Michigan State.  The five remaining home games are against Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska. 

I think it is realistic to think Iowa can, and should win at least four of those games.  There is no excuse to lose to Northwestern, Purdue and Nebraska at home. 

None. 

Illinois, with their outside shooting that comes and goes, could cause problems.  The last couple times the two teams have met, outside of the first round of the Big Ten Tournament last year, the shots have been falling for the Illini.  While they are on a downward trend right now, they are still a team rich with talent.

Minnesota is another toss up.  I felt that Iowa did not play particularly well last Sunday in Minnesota and still had a two-point lead with under 15 seconds left in the game. If Iowa can duplicate that effort, and get anything from Roy Devyn Marble, this is a very winnable game against a ranked opponent.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Iowa splits with Illinois and Minnesota and goes 4-1 at home.  That leaves four road games.  At Wisconsin, at Penn State, at Nebraska and at Indiana.

Indiana is a likely loss. I know the score was close at Carver on New Year's Eve, but everybody knows that Indiana is a different team in Bloomington.  Penn State should be a victory.  Iowa played bad for long stretches last week against Penn State, including falling behind 10-3 to start the game, but still had the game in control the entire second half.

Nebraska is a game the Hawks should win, but may not.  I have a gut feeling that much like last year against the Cornhuskers, it may be a big let down game on the road.  Again, for the sake of argument, let's say Iowa goes 1-2 in those three games away from home.

That leaves tonight against Bo Ryan's Badgers.

Iowa beat Wisconsin a couple weeks ago in Iowa City.  However, a few things worked in the Hawks favor in that meeting.  One, Carver was as raucous as ever.  It was a Saturday night, and more importantly, it was Chris Street night.  If anybody saw the Chris Street segment on Big Ten Network's, "The Journey," they know that Iowa wasn't losing that game on that night. 

Second, Wisconsin big man Frank Kaminsky was not playing but will be available tonight.  And third, and most importantly perhaps, is that the game was in Iowa City.  Bo Ryan-coached Wisconsin teams are incredibly tough at home.  Bo Ryan's career record at the Kohl Center in Madison is 177-17 while at Wisconsin. 

That's impressive.

Unless Roy Devyn Marble breaks out of his slump in a big way, as in 20 or more points against the stingy Wisconsin defense, I really don't see the Hawks pulling this one out tonight, as much as I would like them to. 

But, hey, the Hawks did it last year in Madison, so who really knows?  Of course, Matt Gatens isn't coming off the bench to pick up Josh Oglesby's slack beyond the arch tonight.

So assuming Iowa goes 4-1 at home and 1-3 on the road, which I don't think is too much to expect at all, they would finish the season at 8-10 in the Big Ten and 19-12 overall.

Let's go one step further.  If Iowa wins eight Big Ten games, they will likely face either Northwestern, Penn State or Nebraska again in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.  Assuming they win that one, they would be sitting at 20 wins for the first time since Steve Alford roamed the sidelines.

Would the committee really keep a 20-win team from the nation's toughest conference out of the Dance?  I really believe Iowa would be dancing.

So is tonight a "must win"?  I truly don't think so.  It sure would be a nice resume builder, but Iowa fans, don't panic if they don't pull it off tonight in Madison.  There is still hope.

While 10 of the Big Ten's 12 teams will be in action this Saturday, there is only one matchup on both Thursday and Friday involving B1G teams. What makes each of these matchups intriguing is that both come against in-state opponents.

Nebraska hosts the Creighton Bluejays at 7 p.m. CT Thursday night, while Iowa plays at home against Iowa State at 7 p.m. CT Friday evening, which will be displayed on Big Ten Network. For as strong as the Big Ten conference is, don't be surprised to see both Big Ten teams come in as underdogs to these games, even while playing at home. 

Creighton @ Nebraska

Creighton travels from Omaha to Lincoln with a 7-1 record to take on a 6-1 Cornhusker squad. Nebraska is unblemished at home this season, boasting a 5-0 record there, but that could change if Doug McDermott has anything to say about it.

Heralded as one of the nation's top and most complete players, McDermott is averaging 21.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.4 assists, with a 54 percent shooting mark from the field and 88 percent success rate at the foul line. Creighton is currently ranked 16th. 

McDermott is the son of Greg McDermott, head coach of the Bluejays. Alongside Doug are fellow veterans Ethan Wragge, Gregory Echenique, Austin Chatman, and Grant Gibbs. Creighton's lone loss came at home to Boise State. They have, however, defeated the Big Ten's Wisconsin Badgers.

After a 4-0 start against inferior competition, Nebraska lost by 14 to Kent State at home. Following the loss, though, Tim Miles' team has responded with back-to-back wins at Wake Forest and at home against USC, by 16 and 12 point margins, respectively.

Dylan Talley, Brandon Ubel, and Ray Gallegos all average between 14.0 and 15.6 points. Andre Almeida also nearly averages double-figure scoring at 9.4 points per contest. Almeida stands 6'11" and weighs 314 pounds, which limits his playing time.

Ubel was the only returning starter from last year's Nebraska team that tied Penn State for last place during the Big Ten season with a 14-4 league record. Talley came off Doc Sadler's bench a year ago, but now starts for the first-year head coach Miles.

Youngsters Benny Parker and David Rivers have also been sparks for the Huskers. While a 6-1 start is encouraging for the team that was picked to finish last in this year's deep Big Ten, it's still too early to predict anything other than another near-bottom finish in the nation's top conference.

Nebraska was able to knock off Indiana at home last season, a place where the Cornhuskers play leaps and bounds better than when on the road. Nonetheless, I'm picking Creighton to win tomorrow night. The Bluejays should break away late in the contest, winning by eight.

Iowa State @ Iowa

Fred Hoiberg's Iowa State Cyclones travel to Iowa City on Friday evening as the nation's top rebounding team. At 5-2, Iowa State also ranks 14th in the nation in points per game, at 82.4. Friday night will mark the team's second road game, the first being a 12-point loss at UNLV.

The other Cyclone loss came against Cincinnati, while their best win to date was over Brigham Young. Four ISU players average double-figures in scoring: Will Clyburn (Utah transfer), Tyrus McGee, Melvin Ejim, and Georges Niang.

Hoiberg is a strong advocate of picking up transfers, many of which formerly played in the Big Ten. Last year's team dressed Royce White (Minnesota) and Chris Allen (Michigan State), while this year's team also contains Korie Lucious (Michigan State) and Chris Babb (Penn State). 

Iowa looks to get revenge after losing to their in-state rival a year ago in Ames, coming into this contest with a 6-2 record, including a perfect 5-0 in their home territory. Fran McCaffery's team's losses have come against Wichita State and Virginia Tech.

Iowa only has two double-digit scorers, but has shown great depth with nine players seeing the floor for more than 14 minutes per game. Roy Devyn Marble and Aaron White are the team's top two guys. Marble is a solid all-around player, while White is a versatile forward. 

Freshman center Adam Woodbury and point guard Mike Gesell each have cracked the Hawkeyes starting lineup, proving McCaffery's recent recruiting success. The enigmatic Melsahn Basabe has been fun to watch coming off the bench, while Josh Oglesby is one of the league's best pure shooters.

Just like the previous contest described, this game should come down to the wire and likely be even closer. While I believe Hoiberg and Iowa State are the better overall team at this juncture in the season, I like the Hawkeyes' chances to remain unbeaten at home and steal this one by three points.

Here's some fun facts for Iowa fans:

The last time Iowa won a Big Ten/ACC Challenge game: 2005.

The last time Iowa made it to the NCAA Tournament: 2005.

Do you believe in coincidences? 

Iowa lost to Virginia Tech, 95-79, for their second straight loss to a quality opponent on Tuesday night (the other came during the Cancun Challenge Championship game to Wichita State) and things are again looking a bit bleak for Hawkeye basketball fans.

As I've almost explained to near exhaustion, the Iowa men's basketball team came into 2012 with high hopes; and for good reason. But as quick as those expectations skyrocketed during the first five games, they have come crashing back down to earth in the last two.

Same ol' Iowa team?

I'm not ready to decree them that yet; but the lack of defensive awareness this team is currently expressing may force my hand. Especially if their inability to show any signs of defensive life continues.

In the last two games, Fran McCaffery's team has given up 85 points on average. That's after giving up just 52.6 points in their first five games of the season against Texas-Pan American, Central Michigan, Howard, Gardner Webb (whom they were down 20 points at half to) and Western Kentucky. 

The defense has been so uninspiring over the last two games that fans are going into a bit of a frenzy.

And I can't say I blame them. Actually, I'm leading the cause.

Defense, especially at the collegiate level, is all about heart.

The best defensive teams are mentally tougher than their opponents. They grind out every posession. They are hard headed. They are more competitive. They know every last one of your tendencies and force you away from them. They bend, but don't break. 

But most importantly and above all of that, they cause frustration to the coach, players and fans of the opposing team.

I have not seen a single hint of that in the last two games for Iowa.

Care to disagree?

That's fine, but the five players in double figures for Virginia Tech beg to differ (with a sixth player one point away from his 10th of the night).

Going into the Viginia Tech game, the entire country knew that the Hokies wanted to dictate the tempo and get up as many shots as possible. They run a bit of an "organized chaos" type of offense, led by the quick triggered senior guard, Erick Green.

ESPN knew it. Fran should of known it. The players...not so much.

While I'm on the topic of Green, did anyone in an Iowa jersey want to prevent him from lighting them up? Did anyone want to take that on as their responsibility other than freshman Mike Gesell (who did an admirable job might I add)?

Again, not so much. 

You name it and Iowa didn't do it on Tuesday night defensively. They gave up 17 fast break points. 46 points in the paint. 13 second chance points. And on top of all of that, the Hawkeyes sent the Hokies to the line 30 times (converting 27 of them).

So what does that mean?

Well, simply, Iowa didn't get back on defense (Did it seem as though it was three on two or five on three during every Virginia Tech fast break to anyone else but me?), they didn't bother to protect the lane, they didn't box out (a necessity if Fran is going to keep them in a 2-3 zone to use Woodbury as a threat instead of a liability) and they chose to use their hands instead of moving their feet.

That's not even mentioning the 10-1 run the Hokies ended the half on.

Oh and if some of you that didn't get to watch the game were wondering, there weren't any real halftime adjustments. Virginia Tech came out and extended that run in the second half to 19-2.

This was a barometer game for Iowa and it didn't turn out well. With losses to Wichita State and Virginia Tech in two straight games, suddenly the Iowa State and UNI games will be the only true out-of-conference resume builders when it comes to NCAA Tournament seeding. 

If this young team loses one of those two games, Iowa will have to clean house during the Big Ten portion of the schedule or they will be lucky to obtain a return bid to the NIT.

Fair or unfair, that would be a step back for Fran and company; no matter if we ARE talking about Iowa basketball after all.

Well that was fun.

You know, if you find being completely dominated inside of 15-feet of the rim (both on offense and defense), being out coached, out hustled, out shot and out rebounded, fun.

There are so many anti-Iowa Basketball thoughts running through my head (thanks a lot Kirk) after watching Wednesday's 73-63 loss to Wichita State in the championship game of the Cancun Challenge, that I don't even know what do with myself.

No assortment of enraged emoji-texts with some of my closest Iowa brethren could help at this point; so forgive me if this comes off a little, well, ranty, but this type of game isn't supposed to happen under Fran McCaffery. Todd Lickliter, sure. Hell, most Iowa fans would have considered this a great effort during his brief stint as Iowa's head basketball coach, but not under White Magic.

How bad are we talking here?

Lets quickly break down the Box Score.

The Good:

1. The Hawkeyes shot 72.2 percent combined from the free throw line and beyond the arc (79.5 percent from the charity stripe and 53.3 percent from three respectfully). 

2. They assisted on 58.3 percent of the field goals made.

3. The bench ended the game having provided 55.5 percent of Iowa's total offense; scoring 35 of the teams 63 points.

4. Iowa finished the first half 7-8 from down town.

The Bad:

1.The Hawkeyes were terrible shooting from everywhere else on the court. Coach Fran McCaffery's team converted only four two-point field goals for the ENTIRE GAME. Think about that for a minute. Iowa scored a single two-point field goal every 10 minutes on average. Good for a glorious 12.9 percent conversion rate.

2. Iowa only made 12 shots for the entire contest.

3. Christopher Rickert and Anthony Clemmons outscored Mike Gesell, Adam Woodbury and Zach McCabe. Rickert is a walk on. Gessell, Woodbury and McCabe are all on scholarship as well as starters. 

4. Unfortunately, Iowa was only 1-6 from three point range in the second half.

Shall we keep going?

Yes?

5. Wichita State scored 30 points in the paint. Iowa scored six.

6. Shocker big man, Ehimen Orukpe, finished the game with five blocks, eight boards and a steal. Iowa finished with five blocks total. 

7. Wichita State grabbed 14 offensive rebounds.

8. Iowa's out of conference resume just got weaker.

Repulsive? Loathsome? Appalling? All of the above?

I apologize if I swayed some of you into a somber mood. But hey, at least it's Thanksgiving on Thursday, my angry Pilgrim.

Bar none, Iowa didn't look like they came to play in that championship game.

As a whole, it doesn't seem unfair to categorize the team as timid, frail, scared, in over their heads and looking as if they had a few too many pina coladas by the hotel pool.

The Hawkeyes didn't quite resemble a team on Wednesday night. Instead, they looked like a bunch of individuals who watched the Grinnell offensive game tapes and wanted to try their hand at scoring 138 points. 

Outside of Aaron White (14 points, 11 of which came from 12 free throw attempts), a Josh Oglesby three sighting (4-8 from down town) and, I can't believe I'm saying this, Eric May, the rest of the team did a whole lot of watching, chucking, trembling and fouling.

But what concerns me the most, was the play of Woodbury.

You could tell early on that it wasn't going to be Woodbury's night. He was being overpowered in the post, he made more fowl looking faces than buckets and grabbed more bench than rebounds.

It was getting so comical that with 10 minutes left in the first half, I texted a buddy of mine and asked him if he would like to play a game. He acknowledged that he would and I asked him the following question, "Guess Adam Woodbury's line".

His response: "It's not good because I keep saying to myself, 'I don't like what I see.'"

In case those of you at home were curious, he had a whopping one field goal attempt (he missed), zero rebounds, one assist, one block and one foul. He finished the game with three field goal attempts (he missed them all), one rebound (offensive), one block, three fouls and one point (he hit one of his three free throw attempts). All of that in 17 minutes of play.

Yes, Woodbury is a freshman and he has a lot of work ahead of him (strength being the most important of them all), but that does not warrant a  7-footer being forced off the block possession after possession after possession. It does not warrant a 7-footer being blocked on a fade away hook shot. It does not warrant letting post entry passes being tipped away by a defender because that individual is too lazy to pin his man behind his giant hip. It does not warrant a 7-footer grabbing one rebound.

One rebound for a 7-footer in 17 minutes of play. Jamal Crawford is averaging twice that for the Clippers and Jamal Crawford doesn't focus on anything other than shooting.

I'm sorry to continue to harp on this but that's just not the valiant effort a 4-star recruit is supposed to give you in a championship game. Cancun Challenge or Big Ten Tournament, Iowa needs more than that.

There was one point in the second half that Woodbury got his shot blocked, ran down the floor and almost immediately fouled his man after receiving the pass on the block. Then on the very next offensive possession, the 7-footer got pushed out of his positioning down low during a play that looked like a post-isolation for the center to take a high percentage shot close to the rim. Instead, he kicked it out and Iowa missed another jumper.

But the worst play of them all was when Iowa was down six points late in the second half and Wichita State was forced to take a terrible jumper. It clanked off the side of the rim but instead of grabbing the rebound with two hands, Woodbury tipped it into the air and towards out of bounds. A Wichita State player flipped it to a teammate, who then hit an open cutter and the Shockers converted an easy lay-in. 

If Woodbury grabbed that rebound (which would have given him TWO on the night!) who knows what might have happened. Wichita State was in the bonus and Iowa was on the attack.

But living in the past is never a fun place to be, and luckily for Woodbury and Iowa alike, they have a week off to correct all the problems that reared their ugly faces during this lackadaisical performance before taking on Virginia Tech on Nov. 27.

We'll see the true make up of this young team (as well as Woodbury) with how they handle coming back from such a pitiful performance in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge next week. I would hate to say it is a must win this early in the season, but with Iowa's out of conference schedule and the current state of the Big Ten, it almost stacks up that way. 

With limited television coverage in many media markets, some fans may have missed Iowa’s Saturday night contest against Gardner-Webb.  If you were one of those fans, you missed more than just a dramatic second half uber-comeback by the Hawkeyes. 

Coach Fran McCaffery also revealed more clues to the mystery that is playing time on this team.  With eleven scholarship players fighting for minutes, who will get those minutes has been a source of much debate for Hawkeye followers.  When Iowa trails by 23 points and doesn’t lead for the first 31-plus minutes of the game, as they did Saturday night, one starts to get answers. 

So what did we learn about playing time from Iowa’s 65-56 win?

There is No Competition for Point Guard Minutes

While it will come as no shock to anyone that Mike Gesell’s position as starting point guard is safe, Saturday showed us just how safe. 

In the first three games this year, Anthony Clemmons received about two-thirds as many minutes as Gesell.  That would indicate Clemmons is pushing Gesell for playing time, and maybe even would be given the keys if Gesell was in the midst of a particularly off-night. 

Not the case.  Gesell played 31 minutes to Clemmons's six against the Runnin’ Bulldogs.  Even more telling, second half minutes were 16-0.

Also interesting was the aggregate minutes for the Hawkeyes’ two true PGs.  In Iowa’s only other game in which it had to do more than just show up to get the W (vs Central Michigan), Gesell and Clemmons combined for 53 minutes (13 more than the 40 minutes available to the position in one game), possibly indicating that at least one of the two will be bringing the ball up at all times.

Six days prior to the one-year anniversary of a stunning loss to Campbell University and facing a similar prospect, Gesell and Clemmons combined for 37 minutes, or less than 40 minutes (and again, 16-0 in the second half).

Takeaway:  When it matters most and Gesell needs to come out, expect to see Devyn Marble slide to the point and not Clemmons come off the bench.

Olaseni Not Quite Ready for More than Spot Contributions

One of the most commonly heard developments over the offseason was the improvement of sophomore center Gabe Olaseni.  Despite only having played basketball for a few years, many expected him to compete for a starting position, or at least get significant minutes splitting time with Adam Woodbury.

Olaseni has looked much more comfortable this season and the length and athleticism that McCaffery seeks is evident.  But with only four minutes Saturday night, it’s clear that he’s not yet ready for more than spot minutes in significant contests.

As a true freshman, Woodbury is the primary option at center for the Hawkeyes.  Expect him to get around 20 minutes a game in conference play when he stays out of foul trouble. 

When Woodbury isn’t in, McCaffery looks ready to tap the logjam of Aaron White, Melsahn Basabe and Zach McCabe to man the four and the five positions, or use a four-guard lineup like he did for heavy minutes against Central Michigan.

Olaseni will be a valuable player this season for situational match-ups and as an athletic big man with five fouls to give.  But it’s unlikely to see Olaseni getting double-digit minutes in the back half of the season.

Despite Great Depth, a Core Rotation Exists

Iowa has 12 players on scholarship for the 2012-13 season (including redshirt Kyle Meyer) and each is capable of contributing in some capacity.  That kind of depth is a luxury that the Hawkeyes haven’t had for several seasons.  Combine that with the fast pace that McCaffery likes to play, and Iowa seemed poised to be running 9, 10 or 11 deep with hockey-like line changes to keep the entire roster fresh.

Not gonna happen.  Saturday showed that McCaffery currently has a core rotation of seven-eight guys that will get the vast majority of the significant playing time.  Gesell, Marble, Josh Oglesby, White, McCabe, Basabe and Woodbury all played at least 19 minutes against Gardner-Webb.  Eric May played 12, but only three in the second half.  Nobody else played more than six.

This consolidation of minutes shouldn’t really come as a surprise.  McCaffery has always ridden his best players.  In his five years at Siena, his top five players averaged over 31 minutes per game.  That would have trailed only Michigan (at nearly 32) among the twelve Big Ten schools last season.

Different school, same philosophy.  The best players play… a lot.

Fran’s Guys Stand Out

Iowa may have a solid rotation, specialists and depth, but great teams need great players that you can hitch your cart to.  McCaffery appears to have identified three guys that will play the roles of “stars” this season: Marble, White and Gesell.  If these guys can go, they will be on the floor.

In the first half, White had one FG.  Marble had none and four turnovers.  Gesell was 0-8 from the field on the night. Yet Fran still rode each for over 30 minutes.  Not everyone earns that kind of trust from their coach.

Typically, someone from that group of players is expected to make plays in big moments.  Saturday Marble did just that.

With six minutes to go and the game tied 50-50, Marble took control by scoring nine of Iowa’s next 10 points, giving Iowa a 60-52 lead.  With just over two minutes to play, the game was all but over. 

Time will tell if the Hawkeyes will look to Marble in all tight games down the stretch, or if White and Gesell will have their opportunities as well.  In any event, it’s clear that Saturday was Marble’s night to be the closer.

Many More Answers Ahead

As telling about the Iowa rotation as Saturday night was, it’s best to keep in mind a few things: It’s one game.  In November.  With a young team.

Things can and will change over the course of a 31-game regular season.  But for now, when Iowa feels like they are playing for their NCAA tournament lives, it’s becoming a little more clear who will be doing the playing.

It has been quite a while since Iowa fans were as excited for basketball season to start as they are this year.

Of course, a disappointing football team doesn't hurt by making fans turn their attention elsewhere, but most of this excitement is due to the high expectations surrounding the basketball team.

Fran McCaffery opens his third season as Iowa's head coach Friday night at home, at Carver Hawkeye Arena, against the University of Texas Pan-American.

This isn't really going out on a limb, but it has been years, literally, years, since I have been so sure Iowa will win a specific game. Iowa will begin the season 1-0 Friday night.

In the past few years they have been too inconsistent, or simply not talented enough, to ever feel comfortable going into a game. My feet are up, I've got a snuggy, and my dog is on my lap. I'm comfortable.

This isn't a shot at UT-PA as much as an endorsement of the current Iowa roster. There is more talent, and experience in Iowa City this season as we have seen since Jeff Horner and Greg Brunner were seniors.

After numerous years of under-performing recruits and a myriad of transfers, this Hawkeyes team should be pretty familiar to fans.

Yes, Bryce Cartwright is gone, and more importantly Matt Gatens is gone, and he will be sorely missed, but pretty much everybody else (not including Andrew Brommer) is back.

Iowa has Eric May as their lone scholarship senior. Melsahn Basabe, Devyn Marble and Zach McCabe lead a strong junior class. Aaron White, Josh Oglesby and Gabe Olaseni round out the important, and very talented, returning sophomores.

Which brings us to the freshman class led by Mike Gesell and Adam Woodbury.   

Gesell is the exciting point guard from Nebraska who will take the reigns of the team from Cartwright.  McCaffery, and everybody around the Iowa Basketball program has spoken very highly about Gesell in the short time he has been on campus.

Woodbury is a seven footer who chose Iowa over other top schools who were recruiting him.  He should have some growing pains, but his defense should be a constant. His left-handed post moves could also cause issues for some defenders.

For now, we have more questions than answers concerning Iowa Basketball, and tomorrow night probably won't answer a lot of them. It will, however, give Hawks fans a taste of the team that may be the first Iowa team in seven years to go dancing in March.

It's the preseason. If you are here, reading this, I probably don't have to tell you that, but spare me my introduction, please.

With preseason college basketball comes millions of "what if" posts, power rankings and schedule breakdowns from the media masses.

It's been no different here at Bleacher Report. But unlike other NCAA basketball sites that dive into the Dukes and UNCs of the world (though we do have that as well), I give the people what they truly want. Well, at least those patiently waiting for opening tip in Iowa City.

Two weeks ago, I provided some insight on a little ol' team trying to shake up the Big Ten powers that be by breaking down the Hawkeyes' out-of-conference schedule and the necessary wins needed for an NCAA tournament run.

Last week, I discussed the all-important "Fearsome Five" portion of Iowa's Big Ten schedule and Fran's need to somehow coach his team to a 3-2 record after the onslaught of top-conference talent they must face.

Now I'm here asking all of my fellow White Magic devotees to lend me their ears and hearts as I attempt to predict the Hawkeyes' complete Big Ten conference record for the 2012-13 season.

A spectacle you surely won't want to miss.

But before I "wow" the masses, lets take a look at last year. Iowa finished with an 8-10 record in Big Ten play, which was a four-game swing from Coach Fran McCaffery's first season as the commander of Iowa City's basketball team.

Five of those Big Ten loses came within eight points. Three of them were within five.

Think about that for a second.

Iowa was three points away from beating Purdue, four points away from beating Northwestern, five points away from beating Penn State, six points from beating Nebraska and seven points away from beating Purdue again.

Now, it would be hard to argue that last year's team would be able to beat the 2012-13 roster. The influx of talent completely offsets the departures of Matt Gatens, Bryce Cartwright's full-court lob passes and whatever it was Andrew Brommer provided Hawkeyes fans other than comedy, crazy eyes and grainy footage of backwards full-court buckets.

That's just focusing on the incoming recruiting class. That completely neglects the almost guaranteed improvements in Aaron White, Roy Devyn Marble, Josh Ogles"Three" and Zach McCabe's games.

It IS extremely plausible to argue that Iowa, with an all-around improved roster (one that doesn't just depend on Matt Gatens offensively) would be able to AT LEAST turn two or three of those loses into wins in 2012-13. Just like in the NBA, you have to lose before you can win. I am a firm believer in that. A team has to feel the pain of continuously losing close games. They have to get slapped in the face before being able to get over the hump. They need to see how other teams close those games out at the wire and add that to their repertoire.

This year, Iowa should be able to do that, and it starts with their coach and his proven ability to build teams up.

Take a look back at Fran's career. Before he went on to be an assistant coach at Notre Dame, McCaffery coached a Lehigh team to a 13-15 record (6-8 in conference), a 15-14 overall record (8-6 conference record) and a 21-10 overall record (8-6 conference record) as well as an NCAA tournament bid in his last season.

Three seasons. Three giant steps forward.

He did it two separate times at North Carolina Greensboro. Beginning in 1999, the Spartans finished 15-13 (9-7 in conference), 19-12 (10-6 in conference) with an NCAA bid and 20-11 (11-5 in conference) with an NIT bid. Then again in 2002, UNC-Greensboro went from an ugly 7-22 (3-13 in conference), to 11-17 (7-9 in conference) and 18-12 (9-7 in conference).

And just for the record, McCaffery did it again at Siena—only this time there was no fallback. In his first year, the Saints were a 15-13 team (10-8 in conference). Then the "white" magic happened. In 2006, Fran coached Siena to a 20-12 record (12-6 in conference). He topped that in 2007 with a 23-11 record (13-5 in conference) and an NCAA tournament win. In 2008, it was much of the same. Fran's team finished 27-8 (16-2 in conference) and again made it to the Round of 32. Then, in his finest regular season to date, in 2009, Siena finished 27-7 (17-1 in conference) with yet another NCAA bid.

The buzz around Iowa this year is that Fran will once again improve upon the ground work he has previously laid, just as he has shown he is capable of doing during his entire coaching tenure.

Here's why.

Iowa plays both Nebraska and Penn State twice this year. That should be four locked-up wins right off the bat. You have to beat the teams you ought to beat in college basketball, and Iowa ought to beat both of those programs. They also have to play Illinois in Carver Hawkeye Arena, which I'm counting as another win.

That's five wins altogether so far. After that, I believe Iowa will at the very least split against Purdue, Wisconsin and Northwestern. I am going on the conservative side here because personally, I think Iowa can sweep Northwestern and possibly Wisconsin, as Fran seemed to have Bo Ryan and his Badgers' number last year.

That's an eight-win season at least. But based on McCaffery's coaching history, the Hawkeyes won't be done.

I'm still not sure how to view the matchups with Minnesota this year. They seem to be getting a lot of love with the return of Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams, which I understand but don't fully believe. I think Iowa can at least split the series against the Golden Gophers and win at home in front of a hostile Hawk's Nest on Feb. 17.

So there is the ninth win of the Big Ten schedule and yet another season of improvement under Fran McCaffery—but I'm not done there.

I think Iowa will win one of the following three games: Dec. 31 at home against Indiana, Jan. 6 at Michigan or Jan. 10 at home against Michigan State.

Look, the Big Ten is the toughest league in the NCAA. To steal a few words from ESPN fantasy guru Matthew Berry, the conference is "crazy deep." Teams are going to fall to teams they can beat nine times out of 10.

I'll be the first one to admit Iowa should lose to Indiana, Michigan State and Michigan this year, but banking on the fact that that scenario will happen just isn't a safe bet to make.

Honestly, I think the Hawkeyes finish with a 10-8 record in the Big Ten (though I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 11-7 or 9-9). The Big Ten is weird. Just when you think a team is turning the corner on the season, they lose at home against a 4-14 Nebraska team. It's going to happen to everyone.

If Iowa can get to a 10-8 Big Ten conference record and win a game during the conference tournament in Chicago, that equation would surely mean a NCAA tournament bid, and that's what this is all about after all.

Remember, Purdue was the sixth Big Ten team with an NCAA tournament bid last season after completing almost the exact same scenario (10-8 conference schedule and a Big Ten tournament win over Nebraska). With Fran's track record and a veteran team that has been through the basketball ringer, all signs point to Iowa finally getting back to the NCAA tournament.

Last week, I wrote about how the Iowa Hawkeyes, at the very least, needed to go undefeated when playing against their in-state rivals in 2012-13 to bolster the type of out-of-conference "wins" for voters to place them into the NCAA tournament. This week, I want to flip that focus onto the first part of the Big Ten schedule.

Unfortunately for Iowa basketball fans, the first five games of Big Ten play could be almost as frustrating as the games are difficult. Some genius decided it would be an awe-inspiring idea to schedule four of Iowa's first five matchups against preseason Top 25 teams. On the bright side, that godsend of a scheduler allowed for three of them to be played on the beautiful Iowa City campus.

The wretched part about that is all of those home games will be before a depleted student convocation, as most of that population will be on winter break until January 19-21.

With a small student representation and the possibility of bad weather stopping the locals from leaving the warmth of their homes on top of the strong opponents coming into Carver Hawkeye Arena, this could mean there is a legitimate chance that Iowa could start the Big Ten season 1-4, and quite possibly 0-5.

Some of you may think I am overanalyzing, or perhaps being overly dramatic. But really, am I? Under Fran McCaffery, Iowa is 2-8 during the first five games of the Big Ten schedule. They are 1-6 against ranked Big Ten opponents in that span (the only win being the 72-65 win over Wisconsin last year).

Of course, the rosters that faced those teams were drastically different and I'm not trying to use those win-loss records against Fran as a coach. I'm simply shedding light on the fact that Iowa hasn't been known to be the quickest competitors during Big Ten play.

And that's not even diving into the Todd Lickliter stint (3-12 combined in the first five games of Big Ten play during his three seasons as Iowa's coach).

If you take a look back even further, Steve Alford never got his Hawkeyes to relish quick starts, either. Dating back to his first season at the helms in 1999, Alford's Hawkeyes were 19-21 in their first five games of each Big Ten season.

For those keeping track at home, that's a combined record of 24-41.

At this fragile point in the basketball team's resurgence, touting a 1-4 or 0-5 record to start conference play could deflate all the buzz surrounding them. As fast as basketball tickets seemed to have flown off of the hypothetical shelves (or printers, I suppose) this year, an 0-5 record could quickly force students, alumni and other Hawkeye faithful to remember that this is the University of Iowa, after all.

Once fans come to that unfair recognition, the thoughts of having a basketball powerhouse fall to the wayside and turn back to the football team.

Though the Hawkeyes could quickly turn their Big Ten season around, fans still aren't quite over the performances of Iowa Hawkeyes past, and I'm worried that at the first sign of struggle or ineptitude, they could turn.

And who could blame them? Not Gary Barta—that's for sure.

Iowa fans have gone through some of the worst of times, and it's hard to dispel that nasty taste in our mouths.

With that said, Fran is a different coach than Lickliter. Jake Kelly is no Roy Devyn Marble just as Kurt Looby is no Melsahn Basabe. The recruits that are now taking this program seriously are flat-out better than those before them. Iowa can break out; they just need to get off to a quick start.

After what should be a powderpuff matchup against the Coppin State Eagles on December 22, Iowa has the fortune of getting over a week to prepare for Sporting News' preseason No. 1-ranked Indiana Hoosiers.

It will be a tall order for the Hawks to upset Indiana, but there is hope. As much improved as Indiana is, so is Iowa. Remember, Iowa split against the Hoosiers last year and that was with a roster that isn't nearly as talented as the one Fran has at his fingertips in 2012-13.

After that game, Iowa has almost a week to prepare for Sporting News' preseason No. 5-ranked team, Michigan in Ann Arbor. Though Iowa took care of business against the Wolverines last year, Michigan has been a thorn in the Hawkeyes' side for the past few seasons. Dating back to 2008-09, Iowa is just 2-7 against the Maize and Blue nation.

Four days later, Michigan State comes into Iowa City. The Spartans are Sporting News' preseason No. 22-ranked team this year. Even with the somewhat low ranking, counting out a Michigan State team under Coach Tom Izzo is never the wise thing to do. Izzo's team is 4-1 in the past two years against the Hawkeyes, including two Big Ten Tournament wins.

Three days later, Iowa is back on the road, headed to Northwestern, better known as "Chicago's Big Ten team" (despite what the University of Illinois may think). What seems like a sure win without John Shurna running around making it rain buckets could be a little more tricky.

Iowa is 0-4 under White Magic against the Wildcats. 0-4. Yeesh.

And before you know it, it's Badger season once again. Wisconsin comes into town having lost twice to the Hawkeyes in 2011-12. They will also be a player short thanks to the transfer of Jarrod Uthoff from the harsh grips of Coach Bo Ryan and Wisconsin into the comfortable warmth of the Franimal House. The Badgers hold claim to Sporting News' preseason No. 17-ranking. Last year they were ranked No. 11 and 15, respectively, in their two loses.

The Hawkeyes need to find a way to go 3-2 in that span as they have two road games in a row at Ohio State and Purdue after that five-game stint. It will give them momentum moving forward, keep fans in the seats and allow the players to play loose within Fran's system.

Look, the Big Ten is going to beat up on each other this season. It's inevitable. Though Indiana is the clear-cut favorite to win the conference outright, teams like Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Iowa and an improved Minnesota team will be tough on a nightly basis. Thinking IU can escape the Big Ten schedule with minimal damage is wishful thinking at best. The same goes for all of the teams.

I want Iowa to succeed, and I want them to be in the upper tier of Big Ten teams in 2012-13. The best way they can do that is by stealing a few wins against Wisconsin and Michigan State. Beat Northwestern in Evanston (as they ought to). Then put the fear of God into Indiana and Michigan by keeping both of those games tight.

Then let the chips fall where they may.

But by all means, if they feel it necessary to sweep through the Big Ten, I give them my permission.