Formula One: Will McLaren Have It All In Monaco?
If Felipe Massa asserts ownership of Istanbul Park, then McLaren surely must do the same of the streets of the Principality. Over the past 10 years, a McLaren driver has tasted (and Kimi Raikkonen has gulped) the winner’s champagne five times.
Hakkinen won in ’98 and even Coulthard held off the relentless challenge of Schumacher and Montoya to win brilliantly in 2002. Raikkonen, building from a miraculous qualifying lap where he outpaced nearest challenger Alonso by half a second, won in 2005 without relinquishing the lead even for pit stops.
Of course, Alonso himself spearheaded the drubbing of Ferrari last year with Hamilton in (famously) close attendance. Ron Dennis has often said that waking up on the Monday morning after a Grand Prix weekend not involving a 1-2 for the Silver Arrows, is pain. Not much fear of that in Monaco.
However, could things be about to change? This time, it seems the relentless Kimi Raikkonen could be the one to unseat his old team. The World Champion was, by his own standards, muted in Turkey.
At a track often touted as tailor-made for teammate Massa’s driving style, the Finn was always half-a-tenth off the Brazilian, even before his prospects of winning were scuppered at the first corner as Heikki Kovalainen cruised tentatively into his front wing.
This caused him (albeit minimal) damage, but it lost him two places and perhaps 5-8 seconds to Kubica’s BMW.
But Turkey and Monaco are polar extremes. Massa, whilst massively quick at certain circuits, lacks the precision that marks Raikkonen out as a truly great driver. Even before his clumsy (and completely uncharacteristic) whack into the kerb last year, Kimi was half-a-second quicker than the Brazilian.
Massa has never fared well here; a first lap crash in 2006 and a distant third place a year later are not results of a man with serious championship aspirations.
The difference this year is the Ferrari has far better traction that last year’s car. The F2007 was a radical design with the longest wheelbase in the paddock. It was well-suited to fast, flowing circuits like Silverstone, Spa and Turkey by dint of its superior aerodynamics.
It was less impressive in the tighter confines of Monaco or Montreal, which placed a heavy premium on traction and low-speed mechanical grip. This year, the problem appears to have been more or less remedied. If anything, it’s been even stronger at lower speeds than the McLaren.
Raikkonen was quickest in the twisty final sectors of both Istanbul Park and Cataluña and both Ferraris have been starting consistently well off the line; a definite improvement on last year. Both ITV commentators James Allen and Martin Brundle remarked that the Ferrari appeared to have the best traction from the slow hairpins, particularly during the Malaysian and Bahrain Grands Prix.
BMW also appear to have made gains. Kubica, it seems, has banished the gremlins of his disappointing 2007 and for the last two or three races has comprehensively outpaced Nick Heidfeld. His precocious talent appears to be transcending a perhaps knife-edgier car than last year’s model, so maybe he is more able to extract the car’s maximum potential than the German. He could threaten a win this weekend, particularly in a car with obviously excellent low speed stability and traction such as the BMW.
As for the others, Alonso has always gone well around the streets. After a quiet race in Turkey he will be another looking to challenge for high points or even a podium. Certainly—judging by his epic qualifying performance in Spain—he has a much-improved Renault at his disposal.
Webber could be another threat, and maybe qualifying specialist Trulli (a winner in 2004) could spring a surprise in the Toyota. It’s going to be too close to call, but ultimately I believe, unless McLaren have a clear car advantage, that the battle is between two of the best: Hamilton and Raikkonen. With the prospect of rain showers always looming large, it could well be an epic.
Roland.