Air Force Football

Reports have been swirling that the Big East could add Houston, SMU, Boise State, UCF and San Diego State as early as Wednesday. There has also been talk about Air Force and Navy joining the conference as well.

According to sources within the Air Force athletic department, the Falcons would not want join those schools in the Big East.

The school’s superintendent, Lt. Gen. Michael Gould, reportedly has concerns about how much money will actually come in through the conference’s television contract, which has yet to be determined. He is also concerned about the public perception of going to the league just to get more money as well as backstabbing the Mountain West.

They remained at an eight-game conference schedule despite having 10 members almost entirely at Air Force’s request. Leaving now could be perceived poorly by many people around the country.

There are also reports going around that say the BCS could be doing away with bowl tie-ins as early as 2013. If that is the case, going to the Big East would do absolutely nothing from a football standpoint and could diminish the value of the conference’s television deal.

Obviously, nothing is set in stone but all signs are pointing towards Air Force staying in the Mountain West for the foreseeable future.

Air Force is one of six non-AQ teams that is reportedly being invited to join the depleted Big East, along with fellow Mountain West member Boise State, Conference-USA members—Central Florida, Houston and SMU, along with Navy, who is currently an independent.

Although there is no word yet on whether or not the Falcons will make the move, according to the Colorado Springs Gazette (http://www.gazette.com/sports/names-128010-gen-thompson.html), those in charge of the decision are apparently leaning towards staying in the Mountain West.

Air Force has been a Mountain West member since the conference first began back in 1999, and to now pick up and move to a conference that is centered primarily in the eastern time zone would be a risky move, especially given all the turmoil that the Big East has endured over the last two months.

Since September, the Big East has lost three competing members—Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia—and one future member, TCU, to other BCS conferences, and the league is now down to just five football-member schools.

That’s why conference officials initially devised a strategy to invite some of the top non-AQ teams from around the country.

Still, you have to wonder if this is the right move at the right time for a program like Air Force.

Financially, the school would certainly receive a boost by joining a BCS conference, but if the Falcons finish 5-7 every year in the Big East and miss out on postseason bowl games, would the move really be worth it?

The Big East seems like dangerous territory right now, and it may not necessarily be a place the Falcons want to fly.

There is still an opportunity that the Mountain West and Conference-USA could merge, and if that happens, Air Force would be a much better fit in that type of conference than the Big East.

It should be interesting to see how all of the dominoes fall, and if the six-school strategy actually works for the Big East, but at this point, it’s still very much a conference that is on life support as it tries to find a cure for the realignment infection that came along and devastated the league.

The Army Black Knights will hit the road to take on the Air Force Falcons in a battle of two military schools. 

These two teams have played every year since 1969, and the Black Knights are losing the series 13-31. In fact, the Black Knights haven't beaten the Falcons since 2005. That was Army's first win over Air Force since 1996. 

Both teams have been mediocre this season, but a win on Saturday would greatly help their quest to be bowl eligible. 

With that said, let's take a look at some specifics of this military rivalry.  

When: Saturday, Nov. 5 at 3:30 p.m. ET

Where: Falcon Stadium, United States Air Force AF ACA, CO

Watch: CBS

Spread

The Falcons are favored at minus-17, and rightfully so. They've dominated the the Black Knights for many years, and will continue to do so this weekend. The last time this was a close game was back in 2005 when Army won. 

Over/Under 

The over/under is set at 59, which may seem high, but both teams have proven they know how to put the ball in the end zone a lot. Army won last week by a score 55-0, and Air Force won its game by a score of 42-0. 

Key Injuries 

For Army, QB Trent Steelman (ankle) is doubtful, as he also missed the game last week. LB Steven Erzinger (hamstring) is probable.  

For Air Force, QB Tim Jefferson (nose) is probable, but DL Zach Payne (knee) and LB Ken Lamendola (hamstring) are questionable. DL Harry Kehs is out indefinitely after dislocating his shoulder last weekend.  

BCS/ Top 25 Implications 

Neither team is likely to end up in any of the Top 25 polls this season. At this point in the season, both teams are fighting to get to six wins so they'll be bowl eligible. 

Keys to Army Win 

The Black Knights will more than likely be without their best QB in Trent Steelman. He missed last week's game and Army didn't skip a beat, but now they face a much tougher opponent. Without Steelman, it's going to be very tough for the Black Knights to win. 

Army has the No. 1 rushing attack in the country, and in order for them to win they need to hang onto the ball and chew the clock. The Black Knights must also prevent Air Force from having the big plays, and creating turnovers always increases a team's chances of winning. 

Keys to Air Force Win 

The Falcons have the No. 3 rushing attack in the country right now, which means they too need to use their ground and pound to eat up the game clock. The Black Knights have been known to turn the ball over some, so creating turnovers is key.

Finding a way to shut down Army's run game won't be easy, but if the Falcons can limit the production up the middle, they will be able to control this game. Army loves to use its fullbacks and run straight up the gut, which means all Air Force has to do is take that away from them.

Prediction 

The Air Force Falcons will continue their win streak over the Black Knights, and they will do so in impressive fashion. Steelman probably won't play, which doesn't bode well for the Black Knights, especially since they're on the road. 

Both defenses will give up a few big plays, but in the end, the Falcons will prevail because they are the better team.

Falcons 42, Black Knights 21

For college football purists it doesn't get any better than games between the three service academy schools. They play the game with unmatched passion, and it's nice to know that it's highly unlikely that any of the players involved in the game were illegally recruited.

Lately, the service academies have not only been refreshing to watch, but they have put a really good product on the field.

To varying degrees, each academy has had some success of late.

Even with that being the case, it has been clear which academy has the best football team. That award goes to the Naval Academy. Before last season, Navy had won seven consecutive Commander-in-Chief's trophies. During that stretch, they went 14-0 against their fellow academies.

The game this Saturday signaled the official end of Navy's reign atop the service academy rankings. Air Force is now the best team of the three.

The change really started last season. Air Force won their first Commander-in-Chief's trophy since 2002. Their win over Navy last year was also their first since 2002.

Air Force has used a lot of the same strategies as Navy to be successful. They run the triple-option offense and pride themselves on swarming to the ball on defense.

The difference now is that Air Force is beginning to do things better than Navy.

Both teams run the ball well, but Air Force has made more big plays. Their passing game is also more of a threat. Air Force quarterback Tim Jefferson is a great signal caller in that offense.

Army and Navy better hope that the Falcons are just a flash in the pan. The last time Air Force was the top service academy team, they dominated the series. They won all but four Commander-in-Chief's trophies between 1982 and 2002.

Air Force is the best team of the group right now, but no one team will dominate play like that again. Service academy football is much too good for that to happen. And that's great news for college football purists and college football fans in general.

As we continue preparing ourselves for the 2011 college football season, you get the general feeling that many fans and analysts believe that the battle for the Mountain West Crown will be a two horse race between new kid on the block Boise State and old bully TCU.

That line of thinking is certainly reasonable and understandable, considering the Broncos and the Horned Frogs have combined for 74 wins over the last three seasons, and the rationale is aided by the fact that both programs are now considered to be the cream of the Non-BCS crop.

There are eight teams in the Mountain West this season, but when it comes to the national spotlight, it seems as if Boise State and TCU are the only two schools that matter and they're the ones receiving the bulk of the preseason publicity and attention.

Therefore, the question has to be asked.

Is there a worthy conference contender out there that’s capable of challenging the two established powers this season?

The San Diego State Aztecs are a team that immediately comes to mind, as they have one of the best quarterback-running back combinations in the country with Ryan Lindley and Ronnie Hillman. They also return eight offensive starters from a team that averaged 35 points per game in 2010.

You have to wonder, however, how much head coach Brady Hoke’s offseason exodus to Michigan will affect the team’s mentality this season.

The Aztecs are a talented bunch, but if you’re searching for the team that could really have what it takes to shake things up in the conference this year, then look no further than the Air Force Falcons.

Yes, those Air Force Falcons.

The same Air Force Falcons that finished the 2010 season at 9-4, beat Georgia Tech in the Independence Bowl and scared the you-know-what out of Oklahoma fans.

Last year, Air Force took major strides in the right direction under head coach Troy Calhoun, a rising star in the college football coaching ranks.

The scary part is, it looks as if Calhoun’s crew has a chance to be even better this season.

The Falcons return their three best offensive players—QB Tim Jefferson, RB Asher Clark and OG A.J. Wallerstein—to a run-based attack that ranked second in the country in rushing last season, averaging 306 yards on the ground per game.

Jefferson, who accounted for over 2,300 yards of total offense and 25 touchdowns in 2010, is perfectly equipped to be the pivot man of the option-heavy offense.

The seasoned senior starter will once again be joined in the backfield by Asher Clark, one of the best running backs that nobody seems to be talking about all that much.

Clark, who followed up an eye-opening sophomore campaign in 2009 with an even more impressive performance last season, broke the 1,000-yard mark and showed the type of explosiveness and big play ability that will have defenses paying plenty of attention to him this season.

Opening holes for Jefferson and Clark will be an offensive line that returns three starters and will again be led by guard A.J. Wallerstein, a first team all-conference performer who is one of the top interior linemen in the country.

There’s no doubt that Air Force’s offense should have no trouble keeping up with the pace it set in 2010, but the real key to the team’s success this season will be the continued stability of a defense that returns eight starters and ten of the top thirteen tacklers from a year ago.

Air Force should have the best defense in the conference, outside of TCU and Boise State, and if the unit can stiffen up against the run, the Falcons should be able to improve on the 349 yards and 21 points per game they allowed last season.

It’s obvious that the pieces are in place for this team to make a serious run at a conference championship this season but it’s going to be up to Calhoun to keep his team focused and playing at a high level week in and week out.

We'll quickly find out what the Falcons are really made of when they host TCU on Sept. 10, as they try to avenge their embarrassing 38-7 loss from last season.

If Air Force can pull off the upset of the Horned Frogs, something they haven’t managed to do since 2007, it would be a major early hurdle to clear.

Boise State and TCU clearly have the talent advantage over the rest of the Mountain West this year. But both teams also have their fair share of holes to plug, so it’s conceivable to think that there’s room for at least one more horse in the race for the conference crown and Air Force is a team that looks like it has the legs to go the distance.

As BYU enters a new era as a football independent this fall, expect the unorthodox move to be watched very closely by the Air Force Academy, which should be pondering whether independence is in the best interest of the Falcon football program, and the Academy as a whole. 

If the two share no other similarities, both schools have large national followings and are or were big fish in a very little pond.

Generally schools benefit from conference affiliation in scheduling, media coverage, and BCS access.  However, strong indicators suggest the Academy may able to do better in these areas on its own.

Scheduling

Air Force boasts a stadium having capacity on par with most BCS programs, and is easily accessed from anywhere in the country.  That means more ticket revenue for lower travel cost. 

Compare that with the Academy’s new fellow MWC heavyweight, Boise State.  There is good reasons the only BCS schools the Broncos have been able to strike home-and-home deals are Oregon, Oregon St and Washington St, and it isn’t the blue turf. 

Add in the fact that Air Force carries national appeal as a service academy and the king of the triple-option, and you might understand why Air Force has been one of the very few non-AQ programs that has been able to play BCS schools regularly and almost entirely on a home-and-home basis over the past decade. 

Air Force can schedule, and there should be no concern about the Falcons’ ability to fill an independent slate.

Media

 Let’s be honest.  The Mtn. network is not the best, and despite significant strides in adding HD telecasts, that improvement has yet to increase the Academy’s bottom line. 

For BYU, it was too little too late.  Consider the possibility that Air Force team up with fellow service academies Army and Navy (both independents), not as conference affiliates, but as partners in a Service Academy Network. 

If such a network could produce the same revenue as the Mtn.  Air Force would more than triple its cut as it would have share the profit with only two other schools—not nine. 

That’s not an unreasonable possibility, considering the Mtn. just lost its most profitable markets in the Wasatch front and the Metroplex.  The possibilities are eye-opening.

BCS Access

 There is probably little difference between Air Force’s chances of landing a BCS slot as an independent vs. as a member of the Mountain West, so the relevant consideration is the BCS revenue share that is funneled to the Academy, even without the Falcons playing in a BCS game. 

Given that the funds granted to the non-AQs are meager to begin with, and have to be divided among some 65 +/- schools, there is a strong possibility that the BCS share received by Air Force could be offset or even outweighed by not having to share the booty of its own bowl game with the Mountain West.  That is a question only the Academy can answer.

At the end of the day, Air Force is likely to find itself in a position of providing for the other MWC schools at its own detriment. 

Every institution has the right and the responsibility to act in the interest of its own students, which very well might mean independence for the Academy. 

Your free pick winner from Matt Rivers for Monday is on the under-56 in the bowl game between Georgia Tech and Air Force.

I am not going to write War and Peace here because there are a few simple factors that I am buying into here and that is enough for me to believe there will be less points than the oddsmaker seems to believe.

For one, both teams run this triple-option attack and, therefore, both defenses play against it on a daily basis in practice and also have had a few extra weeks to prepare for it in this game, which can be nothing but advantageous.

This is not a regular week where an opponent gets its three or four days to prepare for a much different offense. These squads have had ample amount of time to figure out what they pretty much already know. Certainly executing is another step in defending today’s foe, but both defenses will be as prepared as any team ever could be against the option.

I also am all about the under, as throwing the ball is not the norm for either squad and, therefore, we will see a lot of running and consequentially a lot of the clock ticking down. In the college game, the clock obviously will stop when there’s a first down, but we are going to see a lot of runs leading to a lot of time running down.

With both teams understanding the opposing offense, I just do not see big plays being the norm here, I really don’t. The defenses should be fairly disciplined and stay with their assignments until the end of plays limiting those 50-yard gallops.

It’s unusual to see a game like this and I really believe it is keeping the oddsmakers a bit off balance. Look for the defenses to be a step in front and for this thing to not get into the 50s in the end.

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It’s Georgia Tech versus Air Force in the Independence Bowl and here is the official sports betting picks preview. Air Force is laying three-points with a total of 56.

The Yellow Jackets come into this game at 6-6 straight up and 5-6 against the spread. Air Force is 8-4 outright, but just 4-7 according to the sportsbooks.

The Ramblin’ Wreck average 5.6 yards per rush teams that normally allow 4.6, but get just 6.8 passing yards per attempt to 7.0 and accumulate 5.9 yards per play defenses that allow an average of 5.5.

Tech has been benevolent on defense allowing 4.6 yards per rush to teams normally getting just 4.1, 7.3 yards per pass to 6.8 and 5.8 yards per play to 5.4.

Air Force generates a sensational 5.5 yards per rush versus squads usually permitting 4.7, a fantastic 9.9 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 6.2 yards per play to 5.8.

The Falcons are generous against the run, but stingy against the pass. They allow 4.8 yards per carry teams that usually get just 4.1, but a miserly 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.2 for 5.3 yards per play to 5.4.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread)

Georgia Tech is 1-6 off spread win.

The Falcons are 2-7 as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, 2-7 overall, 1-7 after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, and 0-5 off straight up win.

Over/under trends

Tech has gone under 9-2 as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and under 36-16 overall as a pup. Air Force has gone under five straight laying three or less.

Top expert pick on this game

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