Air Force Football

The lone game on Monday, Dec. 27, which kicks off at 5 p.m. EST, pits the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) against the Air Force Falcons (8-4) in the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana.

It's the first meeting for the programs.

This is really a story of teams moving in opposite directions to meet in this game.

Georgia Tech played in the BCS last year, but has fallen all the way to here this time around. With just one win in their last five games, they should count themselves lucky to be playing in any bowl, much less the Independence Bowl.

Air Force, meanwhile, is climbing up the bowl ladder after being stuck in the Armed Forces Bowl the last three years.

Georgia Tech isn't in a good place right now and the Ramblin' Wreck has lost five straight bowl games. They insist that they have no motivation issues coming into this game, but given how things have gone for them—and especially since they come into this game off a very frustrating loss to their major rivals from Georgia—it's hard to believe that is entirely true.

Air Force would appear to be in far better shape coming onto the game, but their record isn't quite as impressive as it might seem. They have beaten three bowl teams this year, but two of them—Army and BYU—are both lucky to be there and aren't coming off of dominant years by any means.

Meanwhile, all four of their losses were to bowl teams and those were unquestionably the four best teams they played.

Georgia Tech, coming from a major conference, is a step up from much of the opposition that Air Force has faced so far and the Falcons have not punched above their weight this year.

Therefore, this game is closer than it might first appear.

Georgia Tech vs. Air Force: Independence Bowl Odds

The game opened with Air Force favored by two points, according to college football spreads, but it has settled on the key number of three.

The Yellow Jackets are drawing a small majority of the bets, so the movement is a good sign that smart money has hit Air Force in this one.

The total seems solid at 56.

Georgia Tech vs. Air Force: Betting Trends

Air Force is a lousy 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, but a dramatically better 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference contests; they are just 2-7 ATS the last nine times they have been favored by three points or less.

Georgia Tech is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.

Eight of Air Force's last 11 games have gone "under" the total; Georgia Tech has gone "under" in five of their last six.

Independence Bowl Predictions: Georgia Tech vs. Air Force College Football Picks

I am nervous about the motivation that Georgia Tech will have, but I still have to pick them here.

The Falcons have done their best when they can surprise and confound opponents with their offense, but Georgia Tech is going to be more comfortable than most teams with what they are trying to do.

I just don't think that Air Force is big enough or fast enough to compete with top teams right now, and despite being a slumping team in an underwhelming conference Georgia Tech is still the faster, stronger and bigger team here by a fair bit.

At the very least, I like the chances of the Yellow Jackets to keep it close and I don't see a crazy high-scoring game, so having a field goal in my pocket is a nice case here.

I'm on Georgia Tech and the "under."

Don't you ever wish for just 60 minutes you could go back and watch a football game without all of those pesky forward passes jerking your neck as you turn to watch them fly down field? Well then, do we have a game for you. The nation's top two running programs take the field on December 27th.

Air Force ranks 118th in passing yards per game, and second in rushing. Winners of their final three games, Air Force is not intimidated by Georgia Tech's BCS bowl game from a season ago.

Asher Clark just barely topped 1,000 rushing yards this season, and behind him in the rushing statistics is Tim Jefferson, a very underrated quarterback and master at running the triple option attack.

Georgia Tech will be without their master at the helm of their triple option offense. Josh Nesbitt remains out with a broken arm.

While Tevin Washington he has improved since he took over early in November, he still doesn't have the timing down to run coach Paul Johnson's intricate option attack.

Georgia Tech lacked a productive receiving threat this past season. While that may seem irrelevant to an offense so dominant in the run game (301 yards per game), consider this: during last season's ACC championship, Demaryius Thomas caught 46 passes and eight touchdowns. Thomas since left for the NFL.

In 2010's 6-6 regular season, Stephen Hill led the team with only 15 receptions. Part of this drop off in production is due to Nesbitt breaking his arm, but not having a productive receiver killed Tech's offense late in games this year.

Prediction

Teams usually say that the option attack is hard to stop because you can't prepare for it during practices before the game. That won't be the case here, as both teams can very easily replicate each others offenses in preparation for the game. Paul Johnson had a nice record against Air Force back when he coached at Navy. He beat them all but one season during his five seasons. I'm going slight upset and picking Georgia Tech finishing the season with a winning record.

Georgia Tech 27 - Air Force 20

Four plays, two long Air Force touchdown passes and two Army turnovers, were the decisive moments in the Falcons 42-22 victory over West Point today on a beautiful fall day at Michie Stadium in New York.   

The day began with bright skies, autumn colors on the hillside trees on the Hudson Valley campus, the band and cheerleaders from each school parading through the tailgates and an Army parachute demonstration.  One of the unique pregame ceremonies of the service academy games is the return of exchange students such as the Army students studying at Air Force this semester to their respective academies so they can watch the game with their fellow Academy classmates.

Both teams came out with special uniforms for the game.  Army wore gray jerseys and pants with black helmets reflecting the dress uniforms of the Corps of Cadets.  Air Force wore blue jerseys with red and white trim with helmets painted with the colors and design of the US Air Force Thunderbirds air demonstration team.  

Army went out to a first quarter lead on field goals of 30 and 41 yards by junior Alex Carlton from Wilmington, DE who has become very consistent with his kicks in recent games. 

Air Force took a 7-6 lead early in the second quarter completing an 11 play, 67-yard drive with a three-yard run by QB Tim Jefferson from Atlanta, GA.  Soon after, Army senior Jonathan Bulls from Fairfax Station, VA hit a directional punt that forced the Falcons to start at their own 13-yard line.  Two plays later came the first big Falcon pass play, a 53-yard connection from Jefferson to junior wide receiver Jonathan Warzeka, from Lake Elsinore, CA. 

Army answered with an eight play, 60-yard drive completed with an 18-yard run by senior fullback Jacob Bohn from Westminster, MD.  Late in the half with Army trailing 14-13 and playing from its own zone, sophomore QB Trent Steelman from Bowling Green, KY lofted a pass down field that was picked off by the Falcons Anthony Wright who ran the ball back to the Army 22.  For Steelman who is known for careful passing, this was a costly first interception of the season.  Falcon Nathan Walker from Colorado Springs completed a four play drive with a two-yard run, a turn of events from which West Point never really recovered.

In the third quarter, Alex Carleton kicked his third field goal of the game from 46 yards away, his 11th of the season and seventh in a row going back to the Rutgers game to narrow the AFA lead to 21-16.  That was as close as Army would be the rest of the day. 

Near the end of the quarter Jefferson and Warzeka connected again for a Falcon score, this one from 63 yards to give the AFA a 28-16 lead.  Then with 2:21 gone in the fourth, the game was iced with the last of the four big plays, as the Falcons junior linebacker Jordan Waiwaiole from Spring Lake Park, MN stripped a ball and ran 52 yards for a TD making the score 35-16.  

The Black Knights came back with an 80-yard drive completed with a nine-yard pass from Trent Steelman to WR Austin Barr.  AFA answered with a 54-yard drive and QB Tim Jefferson's second rushing TD of the day on a one-yard dive completed the scoring on the day at 42-22 in favor of Air Force.

Army coach Rich Ellerson commented on the big plays which did in his team, "You can do so many good things on defense in any game, but if the ball goes over your head on third down every so often, it negates all those other things. We know how much good work a turnover can take away from the offense. You can be driving the ball down the field and doing everything exactly right, and if you turn the ball over it's all for naught. You can be winning the line of scrimmage, pressuring the quarterback on defense, but if the ball goes over your head, it's all for naught. That's the game. That's not news. It is certainly an illustration of how pivotal those things are and why we work so hard. We were on the edge in those passing situations. We're not trying to defend everything on every play against those guys. If you're playing against a good offensive football team, and they are one, and you try to defend everything on every snap, you're not defending anything. Never do we expect the ball to go over our head like that. We had some guys get tied up and fall down. It happens."

The win improves the Air Force to 6-4 on the season and leaves Army at 5-4 still in search of a sixth win that will make them eligible for a bowl trip not taken since 1996.  The Black Knights head to Ohio next week to play Kent State then look forward to playing the first football game in the new Yankee Stadium against Notre Dame on Nov. 20th and the regular season ending rivalry game with Navy in Philadelphia on Dec. 11th.  

Ken Kraetzer host's the West Point Football Report broadcast Tuesday evenings at 5:30 PM EST on WVOX 1460 AM heard "worldwide" on WVOX.com.  This week's scheduled guest is West Point Commandant, BG William Rapp. Reach him on kgk914@aol.com

Meet The Bird

The Bird has been the mascot of the United States Air Force Academy since 1957. This electric blue Falcon wears the Academy’s sports uniforms with pride, and can be seen on the sidelines of many of the school’s sporting events. He’s a four-time entrant in the Capital One Mascot Challenge.

The Bird’s Experience

The Bird has seen countless future American leaders in his time at the Academy. From former NCAA record holding quarterbacks Chance Harridge and Beau Morgan to NFL coach Bill Parcells and college coaching legend Fisher DeBerry, the Bird is no stranger to leadership and success. 

The Bird’s Leadership Abilities

The Bird has been helping to train America’s future leaders since 1956. He embodies the free soaring spirit of the Air Force Academy, and has spent a lifetime inspiring Cadets to aim for the sky. He is a member of the Armed Forces, and brings that discipline to everything he does. But rest assured, The Bird definitely still knows how to have fun.

What Separates The Bird From the Rest

The Bird is a daredevil. There’s nothing he won’t do to keep the fans happy and entertained. His bold entrances to Falcon stadium are the stuff legends are made of. He’s the most exciting, high-flying, thrill-seeking bird of the bunch, and he never backs down. How does he maintain his high-octane lifestyle? Through exercise, discipline and hard work.

Campaign Promises

If The Bird becomes the Capital One Mascot of the Year, he promises to deliver that high-flying excitement around the country.

With a resume like that, it’s clear to see why The Bird’s the word in 2010. 

The Air Force Falcons, no doubt, had a number of goals at the beginning of this season.:

• Beat Navy and end their seven-game win streak against the Falcons?  Check. 
• Knock off BYU in their conference opener?  Check.   
  
• Win the Commander-In-Chief's trophy back?  Half a check. 
  
• Qualify for a bowl for the fourth straight season?  Well on their way. 
  
• Enter the murderer's row portion of their schedule with momentum?  Check that off as well. 
• Compete for the Mountain West championship?  

I am not sure that last one was a preseason goal of the Falcons. Very few people outside the Air Force locker room really saw that as a possibility before the first games were played, not with Goliaths like TCU and Utah standing in their way. 

But, Air Force looks like the biggest threat in the conference to challenge TCU and Utah.  After all, those two schools only beat Air Force by a combined six points in 2009 and Air Force came dangerously close to upending Oklahoma earlier this season on the road. 

The Navy win this week was huge.  It is hard to imagine a scenario where the cadets could have concluded that their season was a success if they would have lost this one—something that was evidenced by the on-field celebration following the game.

And no matter how much better Air Force has looked on the field in the early season, a win over Navy is never a given since the Midshipmen match up so well.

When I first tuned into the game, since I missed the first few minutes while shaking off sleep (the game aired in the middle of the night at my location) I was scratching my head trying to figure out who some guy named "Freedom" was running the ball.  And where was Tim Jefferson, since "Service" was taking the snaps? 

And what on Earth was Air Force wearing?  The helmets looked like something out of Star Wars.  It took me a couple minutes to adjust to the "Thunderbirds" uniforms, although they had grown on me by game's end.  Perhaps it was the win that sold me on them.   

Notable uniforms aside, when Troy Calhoun gave his pep talk before the game, apparently freshman Jamil Cooks really took it to heart. 

He made two game-changing special teams plays, blocking a field goal and a punt, resulting in a swing of 10 points with the three denied to Navy and seven set up for Air Force, which was more than the margin of the final score.

Cooks did his best Superman imitation, leaping Navy's tallest players with a single bound, and he almost got his hands on a second kick.  In this game, the relatively unknown player was Navy's kryptonite, soaring into the air to make the highlight-reel plays that sealed the game.  After all, why take on a blocker when you can jump over them?

I am guessing that Air Force's future opponents will spend a few minutes preparing for Cooks and his seemingly 12-foot vertical in the future.

This week, Air Force has one more test against the Colorado State Rams before three straight games against the conference's top teams, including a surprising San Diego State squad and conference powers Utah and Texas Christian. 

The Falcons are coming off a stretch where they played four teams that played in bowls in 2009, but the primary games that will decide the conference will still be played throughout the rest of October, and the Rams would like nothing more than to throw a wrench into the Falcons' plans. 

Back in the 1990s, the Rams were a conference power under Sonny Lubbick and one of the Falcons' fiercest rivals.  The games were always a spectacle and frequently played a role in the conference race.

The fact that the two schools are located within a couple hours has further fanned the flames of the rivalry. 

But, in recent years, the once mighty Rams have turned into the Silence of the Lambs, although they do not scare anybody, unlike the film of that name.  They have not been able to return to their 1990s level of play.

In their four losses this year, they have been outscored, 113-19. But two of those losses were to offensive juggernaut Nevada and the defensive wall known as TCU, losses which are excusable, and expected, although CSU was not competitive in either game.

The blowout by Nevada bodes particularly badly since both Nevada and Air Force run offenses that challenge a defense to cover the whole field and stop the run.

The Rams' sole win was a 36-34 besting of Idaho, which is playing well this season.  That was a critical win and may have prevented their season from spiraling to oblivion.  

The Falcons have their own concerns coming into this one.  The offense has come back to Earth the last two weeks after looking nearly unstoppable in the early season.

This is somewhat understandable against Navy since the offenses are mirror images of one another. 

The Air Force and Navy defenses are both disciplined with plenty of experience defending the option, something they do on a regular basis at practice.  Hence, the defenses ruled in their annual matchup, something that has been true ever since Paul Johnson resurrected Navy, a tradition that has continued under Ken Niumatalolo, who has been an excellent successor to Johnson.   

The Falcons, under Troy Calhoun, have not had a problem with Colorado State, winning each of the games by similar margins. The scores from Calhoun's tenure are 34-16, 38-17, and 45-21.

Unless Air Force gets caught looking ahead to the trip to San Diego State, something that I find unlikely, this game should be more of the same. 

This is a better Air Force team than the three that hammered the Rams over the past three years, and the Rams do not look to have improved much, if at all. 

In fact, they may have regressed, although they have played better the past two weeks, keeping the game tight with TCU for a half after beating the Vandals the week before.

Expect the Air Force Falcons' triple threat of Tim Jefferson, Jared Tew, and Asher Clark to roll in this one and the Rams to struggle against a very stingy Falcons defense.

Prediction:  Air Force 38, Colorado State 14. 

For cadets at the Air Force Academy in the 1980s and 1990s, the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy was almost considered a birthright. 

It was just that trophy that was on permanent display in the Air Force Academy Field House.

Every year, Air Force would play, and usually blow out, Navy and Army.

In fact, the series was so lopsided that it barely qualified as a rivalry, with games against conference rivals like Brigham Young and Colorado State taking center stage over the Service Academy matchups. 

Between 1982-2002, Air force won 19 of 21 matchups between the two schools, mostly with lopsided scores.

But in 2003, the worm turned. Navy has won the last seven meetings between the two teams, meaning that several classes of Air Force cadets have entered and graduated from the Academy without ever winning the coveted trophy, which also comes with a trip to the White House for whichever squad wins the trophy to collect the hardware from the president.

Almost all of the games during that seven-game Navy win streak have been closely contested, including last year's 16-13 overtime win by Navy in Annapolis.

The average margin of victory over that time is 5.7 points.

Even during seasons where Air Force appeared to have the stronger squad, Navy has found a way to win. 

This is almost always the game that decides the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy winner, with Army typically losing to both teams, although Army has shown signs of life over the last couple seasons.

The game that once was an afterthought for Air Force is now one of their primary goals at the beginning of each season. 

Troy Calhoun has had tremendous success in his first three seasons at Air Force. His Falcons have climbed back into the upper echelon of the Mountain West conference and gone to three straight bowl games, blowing out Houston in the last one 47-20.

What they have not done, though, is beat Navy—Calhoun is 0-3 against his Service Academy rival.

The Falcons look to change that this year, bringing in Calhoun's most complete team, with talent and experience throughout both the offense and defense.

Navy is coming off a bye week and has also looked reasonably good early. They lost a game against Maryland, in which they outplayed the Terrapins and won against Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech.

They looked better in their loss than in their two wins.

But they will be rested and raring to go in this one.

Service Academy games are always a joy to watch. There is plenty of respect between both sides, as the players are all too aware that they'll be on the same team come graduation.

Both squads are loaded with the same kind of players: gritty, determined, and disciplined overachievers who are going to give their all for the full 60 minutes.

Even when one side blows out the other, the two still join together after the game as the two schools sing their fight songs.

It is a wonderful moment to watch, even when your team of choice comes out on the losing end.

So, how will this one end?

Air Force has enough skill on defense to limit the damage from quarterback Ricky Dobbs and a disciplined Navy offense. Look for Air Force to finally get over the hump against their archrival at home.

Prediction: Air Force 28, Navy 20

Free College Football Picks of the Week.

The Air Force Falcons and the Wyoming Cowboys will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at War Memorial Stadium.

Oddsmakers currently have the Falcons listed as 13½-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 50.

Air Force was a 27-24 loser in its last match on the road against Oklahoma. They covered the 16.5–point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 51 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Wyoming was a 51-6 loser in their most recent outing at home against Boise State. They failed to cover the 22.5–point spread as underdogs, while the total score (57) made winners of OVER bettors.

Current streak:
Wyoming has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Air Force: 2-1 SU, 2-0 ATS
Wyoming: 1-2 SU, 1-1 ATS

Air Force most recently:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 6-4

Wyoming most recently:
When playing in September are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Air Force is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Wyoming
Air Force is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Air Force is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Wyoming
Air Force is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Wyoming
Wyoming is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Air Force
Wyoming is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Air Force
Wyoming is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Air Force

Next up:
Air Force home to Navy, Saturday, October 2
Wyoming at Toledo, Saturday, October 2

Visit Freepick1.com each day for winning sports picks

Air Force is coming off a near miss against one of the best teams in the country.  Wyoming is coming off of a brutal beating by perhaps an even better team.

Air Force is threatening to break into the Top 25 after ripping Brigham Young and scaring the Sooners.  Wyoming is threatening to crack the bottom 25 of FBS teams after struggling against an FCS team in their opener and showing very little against Texas and Boise State.

The Falcons have kept Wyoming out of the end zone during their last two meetings.  In the early season, Air Force is the best rushing team in the FBS and Wyoming is the worst after netting negative 21 yards against Boise State. 

So, why is this apparent mismatch dangerous?  Because the Cowboys play the Falcons tough at Laramie.  They always have in what has been a fairly competitive series.  While the Falcons our on a four-game win streak against the Cowboys, that is the longest in the history of the series.

The other reason is that the Falcons will have a hard time refocusing on this game after the demoralizing loss against Oklahoma.   Air Force went into that game believing they could win it.  And the loss stung worse than it would have if they had been blown out of the stadium, as was the case in Wyoming's loss.

The Falcons are all saying the right things, but they will have a hard time not coming out a bit flat in this one after pouring their heart and soul into last week's loss.

I also believe that Wyoming is a little better than they have looked to date.  They played Texas better than the final score would indicate and were one of four bowl winners from the Mountain West last year.  They also have one of the better young quarterbacks in the conference.

They will be eager to prove they are better than they have looked and this week may be their last chance to do it.  Lose badly to Air Force at home and their season likely spirals out of control.  So, in a sense, they are like a wounded animal backed into a corner.  They will give Air Force their best shot.

Wyoming has also done a reasonable job controlling Air Force's dangerous offense over the last couple years.  Last year, Air Force won 10-0, after taking a 0-0 tie into the half.  Holding the offense that hung 47 points on Houston to 10 points is commendable.

This is a critical game for both teams.  While Wyoming is trying to salvage their season before it spins out of control, Air Force is entering the heart of their schedule, a stretch that features Navy, national power Texas Christian, and Utah.  They need this win to carry momentum into that stretch.  A solid win also will push them into the Top 25.

I predict this game will be closer than many are expecting.  Air Force will win it, but will need all four quarters to seal the deal with Wyoming's defense holding relatively tough against Air Force's offense until late in the game.  Don't be surprised if the Cowboys carry a lead into half time.

Prediction:

Air Force 24, Wyoming 17