SMU Mustangs Football

SMU Mustangs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Point Spread: Texas Tech is currently set as a 14 point favorite against SMU with the games over/under betting total posted at 60 points.

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ATS Trends
Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Mustangs are 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games in September.
Mustangs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big 12.
Red Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Over/Under Trends
Under is 4-1-1 in Mustangs last 6 road games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Mustangs last 5 vs. Big 12.
Under is 3-1-1 in Mustangs last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 5-1 in Red Raiders last 6 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-1 in Red Raiders last 5 games in September.
Under is 4-1 in Red Raiders last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Red Raiders last 5 non-conference games.

Head-to-Head Trends
Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Mustangs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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We are approaching another conference upheaval.

Schools in the richer conferences recruit members from poorer conferences.  Those poorer conferences raid the next conference down the pecking order until you have nuclear winter at the bottom of the FBS ranks, and conferences like the Sun Belt are forced to take anyone they can get from the FCS ranks to stay alive.

There are all kinds of scenarios that could play out and everyone has a different player who will be the key actor to start the domino drop of conference realignment.  Before we talk about what a wild card SMU appears likely to be, we have to know where the weak spots are in the conference techtonics today.

Who Could Be the First Domino?

Rightly, most takes begin at the highest tier conference that displays instability or a desire to expand as it projects to affect conferences below it.

The Big Ten has been oozing rumors of an imminent expansion to 12. That could be the first domino.

Will they continue to pine for Notre Dame, or is that era over and we are looking at the era of a Missouri or Rutgers in the Big Ten?

The Pac-10 has in the past stated that they would seek to maintain parity with the Big Ten if they went to 12.  Today would they take Utah and Colorado ...or Utah and BYU?

If Missouri joins the Big Ten or Colorado joins the Pac-10, who would the Big 12 add to the Big 12 north?  Would it be TCU in an attempt to block the MWC from ascension into the BCS or Colorado State to provide a replacement presence in the lucrative Denver DMA?  If Missou and Colorado are both taken, do OU and OSU join the Big 12 North and two Texas schools (TCU and Houston?) get added to the Big 12 (potentially shrinking the media pie) or does the Big 12 go west and add CSU and BYU to the Big 12 North?

It is abundantly clear that if the Big Ten and Pac-10 go to 12 teams, the big three of the Mountain West could be raided and the more and more likely scenario of an ascension of the Mountain West Conference into the ranks of the BCS conferences could be blocked.

The MWC Will Almost Certainly Ascend to BCS Conference Status in 2013 Unless it is Raided

Consider the criteria for conference inclusion in the Bowl Championship series.

We know there are fixed guidelines that are in place to evaluate conferences for the admission of conferences for the 2012 season, and we know in general the factors being weighed . The following is pulled directly from the BCS site.

"The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and Southeastern Conferences will have annual automatic qualification for a BCS game through the 2013 regular season, based on mathematical standards of performance during the 2004-2007 regular seasons.

The 2008-2011 regular seasons will be evaluated under the same standards to determine if other conferences will have annual automatic qualification for the games after the 2012 and 2013 regular seasons. The champions of no more than seven conferences will have annual automatic berths.

If the BCS continues under the same or similar format, conferences will be evaluated on their performances during the 2010-2013 regular seasons to determine which conferences will have automatic qualification for the bowls that will conclude the 2014-2017 regular seasons."

...and...

"Each conference will be evaluated over a four-year period based on the three elements: the average rank of the highest ranked team, the average rank of all conference teams, and the number of teams in the top 25. Bowls' contractual agreements with host conferences will remain in place."

We know the BCS has stated in writing that they are going to use the exact same criteria that allowed a rebuilt lesser football Big East to qualify last time around.  We don't know any of the specifics though. 

We don't know for a fact how wins are weighed and whatnot.  That said, it hasn't stopped people from speculating on that criteria and how conferences are faring in meeting it.

Bleacher Report scribe Crayton is doing a series on the the math. In an article last year he speculated among other things that the MWC is not likely to get in as constructed as 2008's strong finish appeared to be something of a high water mark.  

At this point he may have changed his tune as the MWC has had another very good year in 2009, which suggests their recent run of top play may be maintainable long term (2008-2011).

All numbers used in this report are pulled from his articles.

At a year and a half through the current four year evaluation period, his math suggested the following.

SEC (0.699)

Big 12 (0.668)

Big Ten (0.582)

Pac-10 (0.505)

ACC (0.492)

Big East (0.486)

MWC (0.468)

with .500 being the assumed cutoff for a conference to move up to BCS membership.

He theorized that the addition of one reasonable MWC expansion candidates with a top 25 record—Boise or possibly Houston—might push the MWC over the .500 threshold.

I think his conclusions are very possible if not likely, but I consider the math more theoretical than conclusive as (as I understand it) assumptions are being made on how the three criteria are being weighed.

 

Let's say the MWC adds Boise as it's 10th member or adds Boise and forces out one of it's lowest scoring members, be it either UNLV, San Diego State, UNM, or "gang of 5" member Wyoming to stay at nine schools.  That would almost certainly clear the threshold for BCS inclusion and the see the MWC receiving the full automatic qualifier BCS Conference payouts in 2012 and 2013.

That works in BCS terms, but could potentially really hurt the conference in TV terms.  Dropping SDSU would drop one of the conference's best media markets, would cripple the conference in recruiting California, and would make it irrelevant to viewers in the pacific timezone as SDSU would like rejoin the WAC—making them the undisputed No. 2 in the pacific time zone.

Dropping UNLV would hurt the conference in basketball and further isolate SDSU, hurting California and pacific timezone viewership.

UNM is another strong basketball program and a decent market, albeit one where residents have little buying power.  An important school like TCU might have big problems with their closest competitor UNM being taken out.

Wyoming is almost certain not to be dropped as they are a member of the "gang of 5" effectively a conference within the MWC devoted to getting their five members into the BCS.

Cutting schools would be tough to agree upon if it is even allowed for in their conference rules.  Now the eight schools could bail on the ninth member as the MWC's founding eight members did to the other eight members of the WAC, so it is possible.

That said there is still TV revenue to consider.  The MWC would do better to stay at a scheduling awkward 10 members (adding Boise and not dropping anyone) than to cut into their established TV revenue. 

In that regard, looking to expand to 12 members to allow divisional play (reducing travel costs via a split schedule for football and adding a revenue generating championship game) rather than going with 10 or adding and dropping to stay at nine may make more sense.

There have been reports that the MWC is going this direction. KBOI reported on Nov. 11 that the MWC invited Boise to join.  That has been denied by the administration at Boise.

The following day a San Diego radio personality, Lee Hamilton, reported that Boise, Nevada, and Fresno State would all be added to bring the MWC to 12 members.

The problem with that second report to me is that if the MWC added schools, the schools added would all have to be strong programs athletically and/or academically to satisfy the BCS and would need to make sense for the MWC in terms of TV viewership, academics, and travel.   I would be surprised to see this particular assortment of schools join as they make little sense collectively.

Which schools would be travel partners?  Fresno has long been considered objectionable by the MWC over academics and general questionable behavior in that athletic department.  Have those perceived weak areas been fixed?   What exactly does Nevada bring to the table?  How would the conference be divided up? 

Recall the Gang of 5's original gripe with the 16 team WAC was the disruption of their rivalry games.  I find it difficult to believe the gang of 5 who own the vote in the MWC would champion an expansion that would likely disrupt their competition and put Utah OR BYU in a western division.

Additionally, a move like this could very well doom the WAC to fail. In the years that I have tracked the movement of teams, it seems like conferences take the minimum number of schools to achieve their goals and they are generally quite cautious about leaving the conferences they raid an avenue to survive—after all, the worm turns.

They never know when administrators at those schools might be hired into a position of power at a university in a higher level conference.  Tomorrow they may need that administrator's vote.

Finally will the already regionally isolated TCU be content with western MWC expansion to appease weaker western outliers UNLV and SDSU?  I think they would have a problem with this and the threat of TCU leaving the MWC to form a new SWC with the Western CUSA schools is enough of a threat to have the Gang of 5 making the decisions with TCU in the loop.

It actually makes a lot more sense in term of exposure to bring in the University of Houston in media terms and to keep TCU happy.  That helps TCU recruit Houston.  That makes the MWC a Mountain and Central time-zones conference which gives their schools greater TV exposure with earlier games.

The problem is that gives you 11 schools and an even larger footprint.

Houston could potentially be an add or a replacement.  Houston would add another major market allowing the MWC to let San Diego St. (and maybe UNLV) go and still have a good collection of markets.  UH has an improving academic reputation. With their large research budget they are in the lead to become the third tier 1 school in Texas behind UT and TAMU.

In terms of getting to 12 with Houston, Tulsa made the most sense.

Tulsa appears on the verge of putting up good numbers for the entire evaluation period and is a good academic school and basketball school.  There would be little resistance to their admission from BCS schools.  The trouble is Tulsa is probably too small of a market and too far away to make sense.

With no good 12th school, Houston would likely be out.

That means nine or 10 would likely be the number for the MWC in the their stab for becoming a full BCS member conference and the MWC would add the last two at some later time.

That would create very minimal movement in the WAC and downstream.

The Big 10 could lead the BCS conferences in gutting the MWC, but they could also not interfere with the MWC's evolution into a BCS conference

The Big Ten were the main players behind the BCS.  The BCS has a provision that specifically allows for a seventh member conference that seems tailor made for the MWC.

What if Big Ten expansion has nothing to do with the MWC at all?  What if the Big 10 successfully adds Notre Dame and the Pac-10 stands pat? Where is the inital tumbler then?

Some have pointed to the Big East adding a ninth member.  Their basketball revenue becomes more "portable" after 2010, so potentially a split could occur then, but that seems unlikely. 

It might make sense for the football Big East to add a football only, junior, non-voting member (ECU?) for scheduling purposes. But the eight football team, eight non-football team setup of the Big East has been stable and a financial gold rush for that conference's membership. 

It seems likely that the only force that could change the current setup that allows that voting balance would be if the BCS forced all member conferences to have 12 football playing schools.  That could lead to a BE split.

(This likely won't occur by 2013 or so when the next shift will be well underway, but should happen eventually.  Recall all full member conferences of the BCS receive an $18 million share for their champion participating in a BCS bowl.  With the SEC, ACC, Big 12 all having 12 members and the Big Ten and possibly Pac-10 considering expansion to 12, it certainly seems dubious that those schools would allow the Big East to continue to split their money eight ways for too much longer.)

If the Big Ten took Rutgers, the Big East might take East Carolina or Central Florida over Memphis based on ECU's strong football program or more relevance in the recruiting hotbed of Florida. 

Memphis lost John Calipari and is likely to fall back to the pack in basketball.  Their basketball program was their likely ticket into the Big East.

(Still one cannot totally discount Memphis which hired the architect of the new Big East—former Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese—to act as a consultant in making their program more attractive to a better conference. )

Still that is the loss of a single school.   That would not likely cause a huge upheaval downstream in CUSA.  The CUSA would likely add former member Charlotte (they are adding football) and be done with it.

But what of the rumors of instability in CUSA?

Since the last big shift brought Tulsa, Rice, SMU, and UTEP into CUSA, there has been a growing discontent with the perceived "Texas block."  These eastern schools and western schools don't share the same worldview. The eastern schools see a coherent and powerful voting block of the central privates—Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Rice—and the Texas publics—UTEP and Houston that dominates the direction of the conference and there is some concern and in some areas resentment over that.

Each half of the conference sees itself as the more important and BCS worthy half.  The Eastern schools draw much better than the western schools and as such consider themselves to be much more attractive to the Bowl executives who form the bowl half of the BCS.

The Western privates are prestigious academic schools with large endowments.  They feel they are more likely to be seen as BCS caliber schools by the elite academic schools who make up the most of the membership of the university side of the BCS.  They note the general disdain the BCS schools felt for the Big East in adding schools like Louisville and USF and take pride in the fact that there would not be that kind of disdain with the admission of the privates. 

Houston and UTEP realize they are in a good situation allied with the privates and don't want to rock the boat.

Many of these schools were former members of the SWC and like being together again in general.  Tulane, in fact, was a target of the SWC privates as a replacement for Arkansas in their final attempt to keep that conference together.

CUSA has an enormous footprint that really hurt ECU and small budget outlier Marshall when oil prices were astronomical a while back.  There has to be concerns on their part about the current financial crises and the talk of getting rid of the dollar peg.

Neither school is thrilled about their outlier status and it is rumored to be a source of friction with the Texas schools.

UCF is also an outlier, but can manage to wash the costs via their enormous student enrollment.

The "middle schools," Memphis, Southern Miss, and to a degree UAB and Tulane (at least the fans) are the glue holding the two factions together.  These four like playing each other and most of the other schools in the conference.

(That said, as mentioned earlier, Memphis would kill for a BE berth.)

When the idea of a Big East split lost favor as being the highest point of conference instability, speculators pointed at the possibility of a CUSA east/west split as being the tumbler that started conference movement.

The idea was that the Western schools would get tired of the venom from the eastern outliers (ECU specifically) and broker a split.

To understand how this might work one has to understand the rules for acquiring an automatic bid to the NCAA basketball tournament.

Getting an Automatic Bid for March Madness

The bottleneck in NCAA rules that prevents new conferences from forming all the time is a rule known informally as the "5/6/7 rule" that determines whether a conference qualifies for an automatic bid for the NCAA tournament (and a guaranteed share of the BCS tourney money). 

The NCAA tourney money is divided into 65 shares.  When you make the tourney you get a share.  When you make the next round you get a share.

Without a basketball tourney automatic bid, conferences are at a pronounced disadvantage to competing conferences in attracting new members who don't want to give up a guaranteed part of their conference share, therefore the rule stifles the creation of new conferences.

The 5/6/7 rule dictates that to get that bid a conference has to have six "core" DI member schools who have played together for five years plus a seventh core member of DI.

(The core member designation comes from the amount of time a school has been a member of DI.  95% or more of the universities who play DI basketball are "Core" members of DI.)

The hard part obviously is having six members who have played together for 5 years.  Most conferences have fewer than 12 members, so a 6/6 split creating the basis of two conference that could qualify for a tournament bid is usually not possible.

To have this scenario, one would need to have the elements present in CUSA: 12 members, at least one block of six members with similar goals and history, plenty of available and sensible members awaiting admission, and inherent problems with the existing 12 team setup.

A Potential CUSA Split

The easiest way to envision a potential CUSA split is a simple split along divisional lines. (Other variations have USM and/or Memphis joining the western schools for financial and recruiting reasons, but Tulane and USM continuing in CUSA as basketball only schools until CUSA east can satisfy the 5/6 part of the rule.) 

If it was a 6/6 split, I think the western schools might try to add TCU in an effort to bypass the MWC.  I don't think they could pull it off as Utah and BYU have done better than Houston and Tulsa.

Adding UNT and La Tech (and possibly UTSA with high profile Larry Coker) might be their best realistic play.

For the east, it would likely be Charlotte, Troy, and maybe Temple or if they won't join as a full sports member, possibly MTSU or one of the Sun Belt Florida teams (FIU or FAU).

If 8 schools formed the new western conference, CUSA west could add UNT to get to nine football schools, helping SMU deliver good ratings in DFW in a very similar way to the way Houston and Rice work together.

CUSA east would likely begin by adding former member Charlotte. 

Temple is resurgent in football, but is a bad regional fit for the MAC.  They could be a good fit for CUSA East, possibly even becoming an all sports member down the road.

Army and Navy might join as football only members and would raise the conference's esteem level and average fan support numbers with their strong fan support at home and on the road.

Troy dominates the Sun Belt in recruiting and seems ready for a larger stage.  That would give CUSA East 9 football members.

How SMU Could Be the Wild Card That Screws up Many of These Scenarios

After years of watching SMU struggle in spite of top notch facilities and academics, their boosters had enough.

Two years ago a group of SMU boosters pledged to pay $100,000 each annually to put together a large pool of money ($2 million annually) to buy a top BCS level coach. 

If their facilities could not land a top coach to lead their hopeless program, they'd bribe a top coach to take the job. They landed Hawaii's June Jones.

The high profile Jones has turned around recruiting—they key to building long term success at the FBS level.

This year that investment started to pay off with SMU reaching a bowl game and winning it.

The timing had a number of consequences that may have or may not have been intentional.

SMU was lousy in 2008, a bowl team in 2009, and is recruiting well enough to be a bowl team in 2010 and 2011.  They could have a couple top 25 finishes in a somewhat weak CUSA.  This could make them as viable of a team as Tulsa—on the field—for inclusion in the MWC.

Suddenly expansion to 12 looks possible and viable for the MWC.  Adding Boise, Houston, and SMU works for TCU and the Gang of 5.  It adds Houston, gives better travel partners, gives the MWC relevance in most of DFW rather than just the eastern third, and it allows for very convenient north/south divisions.  The gang of 5 and Boise would play together as the Northern Division with very convenient travel and TCU would get Houston and SMU in the Southern Division to offset the cost of trips to Las Vegas and San Diego.

Huge Implications up and down in Terms of Conference Movement

Suddenly it becomes questionable if movements at the top of the BCS ranks could really kill the MWC moving up.  Could the Big Ten and the other BCS conferences stop a MWC upgrade by starting a conference membership domino drop that takes away Utah, BYU and TCU, if the remain MWC schools could just add Boise, Houston, SMU, and Tulsa and be in about the same position?

Without a potential top 25 team in SMU, the answer is probably yes.  With one, the answer may be no. 

SMU's resurgence gives the MWC an impressive pool of potential replacements and makes the MWC ascension look unstoppable (...well, as long as they keep winning).

If the BCS schools can't be certain that their moves might blunt a MWC ascension, the BCS schools would be in better shape not to try, lest they dilute their own shares and allow in a much lesser MWC (in the terms that matter to the BCS—attendance and academics).

Now in TV terms, a 12 team MWC with Boise, SMU, and Houston fattens the MWC schools' coffers much more than just adding Boise.

It potentially wreaks utter havoc on the the FBS world. 

With the Texas block reduced to four, could and would distant outlier UTEP be forced out in some way in favor of an eastern team like Troy to cut everyone's travel costs?  Could UTEP be forced to suppliment in-conference guests' travel like the WAC once required Hawaii to do? 

CUSA would probably add North Texas to save the Dallas market, but would likely add former member Charlotte instead of La Tech for a number of reasons to get to 12.

If CUSA wanted, they could go to 14 and bump up their TV power by taking in Temple and Troy, FIU, FAU, or La Tech and still not be deemed to have killed the Sun Belt or WAC.

With Boise out, the WAC is a much lesser conference with a bare minimum eight football members and no FBS candidates left in the region that powers Hawaii and Fresno State would accept beyond UNT (which already turned down the WAC once, but might accept this time around due to changing conditions - if CUSA doesn't offer them a slot) or UTEP (if they are given the boot by CUSA).

Barring that, the WAC would have issues.  Is La Tech willing to remain a distant outlier in a lesser WAC without the possibility of a fairly regular BCS check?  Or would they use the threat of leaving to be a football independent to force UH and Fresno to add say ULL and FCS upgrades Lamar, UTSA, and Texas State to form a central division to cut La Tech's travel costs?

The Sun Belt could be in trouble.  If the Sun Belt lost only two teams (UNT and Troy) they would have eight teams and be where they were in 2004 or so in terms of esteem.  

If they lost 3 teams (UNT, Troy, and ULL) they would have only 7 football schools.  They would be forced once more to accept an FCS upgrade university (likely either Jacksonville State or Georgia Southern or maybe both to get to 9 football schools) to maintain their status.  While it would help shrink their footprint and would be good for them in the long term, in the short term they would once more be firmly seen as the undisputed worst FBS conference.

Would Arkansas State want to be in the Sun Belt if it came to that or would they take Lamar's slot in an expanded WAC - dropping the sunbelt to 6 football playing members - and make Lamar a candidate for the Sun Belt? Arkansas State, ULL, La Tech, and UNT tried to create a conference before (oddly enough with Lamar)... They do have history.

The Sun Belt could be looking at 6 football playing members looking for FCS replacements when this all shakes out.

The ramification of SMU hiring June Jones appear likely to echo in ways probably unsuspected by the SMU boosters who simply wanted to have a team that broke .500 occasionally for a change.

“June would throw” is the synonymous slogan used when describing SMU head coach June Jones’ offensive philosophy. 

In his second year in Dallas Jones led the Mustangs to a 7-5 regular season record, a six-win turnaround from 1-11 in 2008.

Southern Methodist University—the only football team to suffer the “Death Penalty”—played in their first bowl game since 1984 when they defeated Notre Dame 27-20 in the Aloha Bowl.  The Mustangs concluded their first winning season since 1997.

How fitting was it that the team’s first bowl game in 25 years came at Aloha Stadium, the same venue where Jones spent his previous eight seasons coaching and cementing his legacy with the run-and-shoot offense.  It was a homecoming of sorts for the head coach. 

The Mustangs dominated the 2009 Hawaii Bowl on Thursday night with a 45-10 victory against the Nevada Wolfpack.  They jumped out to a 31-0 lead at the half.

Freshman quarterback Kyle Padron threw for a school-record 460 yards en route to what the Associated Press titled “SMU is back from the dead.”  Padron received MVP honors for his performance, going 32-for-41 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. 

"I wouldn't say the Pony Express, but it brings back a lot of boosters and a lot of the alumni to know we have a football team again," said Padron in a media release.

SMU played in the Southwest Conference with Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, TCU, Rice, Houston and Baylor until 1996 when the conference dissolved.  They joined the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) in ’96 before joining Conference USA in 2005.

The Mustangs totaled 534 yards of offense on the night, increasing their lead to 38-0 before Nevada scored a field goal with 3:08 remaining in the third quarter.

"They outplayed us, they outcoached us, they did an excellent job," Nevada head coach Chris Ault said in a media release.  "We were never involved for whatever reason."

The program looks to be on the right track to success following the effects of NCAA sanctions.  The eight wins this year is the most the Mustangs have had since the 1980s.

When Jones took the head-coaching job at the University of Hawaii-Manoa in 1999, he took over a football team that was in the midst of an 18-game losing streak and went 0-12 in 1998.  All Jones did in his first year with the Warriors was lead them to a 9-4 record, the most dramatic turnaround in NCAA football history, as well as a share of the WAC championship.

The team made a bowl game that season following a seven-year drought.  During Jones’ tenure the Warriors had seven winning seasons, making it to a bowl game in six of those years.

Jones’ most successful campaign came in his final year at Hawaii where the team finished the 2007 season undefeated, earning a bid to the BCS where they faced Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

Notable former players at Hawaii include quarterbacks Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan.  Chang became the NCAA all-time leader in pass yards in 2004 with 17,072 career yards.  He eclipsed BYU quarterback Ty Detmer who had 15,031 yards.

Brennan led the undefeated Warriors team to the Sugar Bowl in 2007.  He set the NCAA single-season record for touchdown passes and passer efficiency rating.

Following the team’s unprecedented run in ’07, Jones announced he would be leaving Hawaii for SMU.  For all his success he was never satisfied with the lack of support the University provided. 

Since his arrival in Dallas the program has improved drastically.  It was evident on Thursday night when the 12-point underdogs took the opposition to the woodshed.  The players said they were motivated by America, with 91 percent picking Nevada to upend SMU.

This is the second time Jones has proved his worth, by once more taking over a struggling team and restoring yet another program along the way. 

The Mustangs never fully recovered from the Death Penalty but under Jones are sure to find more success than they have had in the 20 years before his arrival.   

Wow. You know, I believe most people who would deem you a zombie to say there is life after death. And you shouldn't be surprised if that zombie had "Peruna" and the "Pony Battle Cry" incessantly on his or her iPod.

But what if the fan of the now undead-Southern Mustangs were to tell you the truth? Pistol be damned, the run-and-shoot prevails.

And I have mixed feelings about the outcome of the 2009 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. They are a peculiar blend of sweet and sour, of ecstatic and pathetic, of heaven and hell as I followed Santa Claus via the fine folks at NORAD.

First off, I am happy for June Jones. For me and for a lot of Hawaii Warrior football fans and alums, June Jones's contributions to turning the fortunes of UH will never be forgotten.

And I also feel happy for SMU. They get to go bowling for the first time in more than two decades. Until this year, the Mustangs were paying the price for their death penalty. Their 45-10 mockery of the Nevada Wolf Pack was a symbolic release from their own prison. So to all Mustang fans, you earned your moment of liberation.

But now, after coming to terms with SMU's win, I have harbored a deeper, stronger hostility toward Herman Frazier, the joke of an athletic director who screwed Hawaii Warrior football over by letting Jones get away.

Herman, do you see what your ineptness has caused? The Warriors are now coached by a former assistant in Greg McMackin whose savvy is nowhere close to his predecessor and has only managed a paltry 6-7 record.

This should have been Hawaii vs. SMU. More than 30,000 would have packed Aloha Stadium (the Gridiron Jewel of the Pacific) to see The Student face The Master in a run-and-shoot feast for the fans.

Instead, the Nevada Wolf Pack represented the Western Athletic Conference. Chris Ault may as well have donned on the sidelines the same outfit Jim Carrey wore as Ebenezer Scrooge in the latest re-hashing of "A Christmas Carol."

In fact, I wonder if he even considered packing it. I suppose he didn't expect to feel as miserably as he did on Thursday night.

But let's go back to Herman. This person should never, ever, EVER have been Hawaii's athletic director. I believe that if the University of Hawaii chose Jim Donovan to succeed Hugh Yoshida, June Jones would have remained Hawaii's head football coach.

On top of that, Otto "Proc" Klum's win total could have been passed.

Do you see now the consequences of your actions, Herman Frazier? I hope you did. One school's loss is another school's gain.

And this was all preventable. I just hope Santa Claus gave you the big, pineapple-sized lump of coal you rightfully deserve.

The zombies at Gerald Ford Stadium dressed in Harvard Crimson and Yale Blue shouldn't just give a mahalo to June Jones, freshman gunslinger Kyle Padron and the team for their breakthrough season. A huge sign of gratitude should be given to Frazier for screwing the fans in the islands many times over and offering them the best Christmas present they could ever have in a quarter-century.

It's been 25 years since the SMU Mustangs played in their last postseason game.

It's been 23 years since those very Mustangs were given the "Death Penalty" following an investigation into a massive scandal that uncovered the improper distribution of benefits to players from the mid-70s onward.

My father graduated from SMU in 1982, and though his Ponies were given the axe by college football, he hasn't lost faith in the once proud SMU football program and he continues to wait for the Mustangs to climb back on to the college football radar.

Coach June Jones may have just kick-started the revival of Mustang football.

The Mustangs went 7-5 (6-2) in Jones's second season in Dallas, finishing second in the C-USA West behind Houston.

On Thursday night, the Mustangs will end their 25 year bowl drought in Honolulu, Hawaii where they will take on the vaunted running attack of Nevada (8-4) in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl.

This is an interesting matchup because this is a contest of two vastly different styles of football.

June Jones's high flying passing attack, which was so successful at Hawaii, has finally taken hold at SMU. 

Second year quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell is the trigger man of the Mustang attack, and though he missed the last five games of the season due to injury, he was still able to throw for 1,725 yards and 12 touchdowns.

However, in Mitchell's place, freshman Kyle Padron performed valiantly, passing for 1,462 yards and eight touchdowns, while only throwing four interceptions (64 percent completion rate).

Whichever quarterback gets the nod, he will be throwing to a reliable target in senior receiver Emmanuel Sanders.  The 5"11 speedster has caught 91 balls for 1,215 yards and six touchdowns on the season.

But SMU's best offensive weapon may very well be junior running back Shawnbrey McNeal.  McNeal has rushed for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns and has also hauled in 230 yards receiving and two touchdowns. His best game came in a 169-yard effort against UTEP.

The Mustangs average around 27 points a game, but they will likely need closer to 40 to hang tough with the second ranked Nevada offense, which is putting up 521 yards (362 on the ground) and 40 points per game.

Leading Nevada's attack is junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick, one of the nation's premier dual-threat quarterbacks.

Kaepernick has thrown for 1,875 yards and 19 touchdowns accompanied by 1,160 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. 

The Nevada quarterback is one of three 1,000 yard rushers on the team, yet he will be the only one playing in this game.

Running backs Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott will both miss the game.  Taua was ruled academically ineligible and Lippincott suffered a season-ending toe injury.

With neither back playing, Kaepernick will be forced to carry the offense on his shoulders, which could mean he may have to throw more. 

While Kaepernick has been efficient in his limited attempts this season, you have to believe that a porous, yet opportunistic Mustang defense will take advantage of any mistakes Kaepernick makes in the passing game.

The Mustangs are ranked 16th in the nation in interceptions (16) and could cause some major problems for Kaepernick and an untested Nevada passing game.

Both defenses will be key in this game.  With neither unit is ranked in the top 50 nationally, we could be looking at a fireworks display for the offenses.

Whoever pulls out the key stop on defense or special teams will likely win this game.  While it's hard to tell which of these very leaky defenses will make that stop, I'm willing to go with SMU.

Redshirt freshman Margus Hunt is a special teams demon, having blocked seven kicks this season.  If he he gets one more, he'll tie the NCAA record.  Look for the 6'8" giant to make a big impact on this game with his special teams play.

This contest should be a real barn-burner and while Nevada is a prohibitive favorite to win with its high octane offense, I'm taking the emotionally charged Mustangs in this game.

SMU 38,  Nevada 35

Merry Christmas Dad and Merry Christmas Mustangs fans, your boys are finally back.

By Ryan of The Sportmeisters

The NCAA postseason kicked off Dec. 19th, with 33 games being played in a three week span.

Seniors will get their last hurrah, and teams will attempt to end their season on the winning side, in the hopes of improving their status for the recruiting process that follows.

The Sportmeisters will preview each of the 33 games that lie ahead, and provide our predictions as well.

Let’s get to it!

Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24th, 8:00 PM, Honolulu, Hawaii

Southern Methodist University (7-5) vs. Nevada (8-4)

About Southern Methodist : What a difference a year can make!

After hiring former Hawaii Coach June Jones, who promptly led the Mustangs to a 1-11 record in 2008, SMU is back in bowl country.

It was scary for a while, as they had hit 3-4 by midseason, and were looking at another losing record. Instead, SMU won four out of its last five games to make themselves bowl eligible for the first time in 25 years.

When Coach Jones left Hawaii for SMU, he brought his pass-heavy offense with him.

They were effective in the passing game, throwing for 267.17 yards a game (28th in NCAA FBS), but it was their running game that kept the Mustangs motoring towards the finish.

Junior RB Shawnbrey McNeal rushed for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns, a rarity for a run-and-shoot offense. His ability to gain yards (5.2 yards per carry) helped SMU when starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell went down with an injury.

That forced Freshman QB Kyle Padron into the role, and he responded with a 5-1 record in six starts, throwing for 1,462 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions.

Senior WR Emmanuel Sanders is eighth in the nation with 101.25 receiving yards a game.

They rank in the bottom half of the primary defensive statistics, so SMU will rely heavily on their offense, and turn the game into a shootout.

About Nevada : An 0-3 start, including an opening day 35-0 loss against Notre Dame, doesn’t give too many teams hope of making a bowl game.

Win eight in a row and that changes everything.

Even a season-ending loss to rival Boise State still makes Nevada a tempting team at 8-4.

Nevada won their games using a rushing attack that is rivaled to no one.

The No. 1 team in the nation in rushing (362.25 yards per game), the Wolfpack boasts an unprecedented three 1,000 yard rushers. On top of that, all three rush for over seven yards a carry.

Junior RB Vai Taua (1,345 yards, 10 touchdowns), Junior QB Colin Kaepernick (1,160, 16 touchdowns), and Senior RB Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards, nine touchdowns) are the three pieces of the rushing tripod.

Kaepernick also contributed 1,865 passing yards and 19 touchdowns, which all add up to the nations number two offense overall (521.58 yards per game), and fifth highest scoring offense (40.58 points per game).

Taua’s 122.27 rushing yards a game is ninth in the nation. They too, will look to make this game a high-scoring affair, but keep the clock running by using the run game exclusively, though they will be without Lippincott, who is out with a toe injury.

The Matchup : SMU returns to the same site they played their last bowl, when they won the Aloha Bowl in 1984. They are 4-6-1 all-time in bowl history.

Nevada is currently mired in a three bowl game losing streak, since winning their first ever appearance at the Hawaii Bowl in 2005. They are 3-6 all-time in bowl games.

Nevada also holds a 3-2 advantage in matchups against SMU.

Even without Lippincott, the combination of Taua and Kaepernick should be formative, especially in their popular “Pistol” package.

For an SMU squad that usually gives up 169.17 yards per game on the ground, that spells big trouble. Should SMU find a way to stack the box and hold the duo to minimal gains (which is difficult in itself), Kaepernick will look to keep the defense honest with play-action passes, then look to some quick outs with single coverage on the sideline.

For Padron, he benefits against facing the second worst team in NCAA FBS passing defense (Nevada gives up 284.3 yards a game). So even if Nevada can handle McNeal, Padron should find Sanders plenty, moving big chunks down the field.

The Prediction : Nevada has too many offensive weapons, with the Pistol formation, Option, and Kaepernick’s ability to throw and run. Nevada wins 54-49.

Illustrating that in college football even death isn’t permanent, the Southern Methodist University (SMU) Mustangs will take the field for the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl this week, 25 years after playing in their last bowl game and 23 years after their program was left for dead by the NCAA.

For an entire generation of fans, SMU is best known for having the only football program ever given the “death penalty” by the NCAA for repeated rules violations.

However, to define the football history of the school only by the last 25 years is to neglect a rich and historic tradition that is an important part of college football history.

Though the football programs at Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Christian (TCU) are all older, it didn’t take long after starting football in 1915 for SMU to join them to form a dominant football juggernaut within the state of Texas. Between 1927 and 1941, each school claimed a share of at least one national championship.

In 1915, Texas and Texas A&M were among the founding members of the Southwest Conference. SMU joined the league in 1918 and soon was contending for league titles.

The first great football team at SMU was under the guidance of coach Ray Morrison in 1923. The Mustangs registered shutouts in seven of their nine games and outscored their opponents 207-9 while claiming their first SWC title with a perfect 9-0 record.

The following season, SMU made their first bowl appearance, but lost the Dixie Classic (the forerunner to the Cotton Bowl) to West Virginia Wesleyan 9-7.

In 1926 the only blemish on the record for the Mustangs was a 7-7 tie with Missouri as they posted an 8-0-1 record and claimed their second conference title. Another league title followed in 1931 as the Mustangs went 9-1-1.

In 1935 Madison Bell became head coach and in his first season led the Mustangs to a magical year. After ten games, both SMU and rival TCU were undefeated and were ranked first and second, respectively, in the nation. The winner would have the inside track to the national title and a trip to the Rose Bowl.

With quarterback “Slingin” Sammy Baugh leading the Horned Frogs and All-American running back Billy Wilson pacing the Mustangs, the two teams played a contest that came to be known as the Game of the First Half Century.

The game was tied in the final minutes until SMU faced a fourth and four from the TCU 37-yard line. From punt formation, quarterback Bob Finley instead threw a deep pass to Wilson, who caught the ball at the four-yard line and waltzed in for the game-winning score.

The pass was later dubbed “the $85,000 touchdown” in reference to the payout SMU received for their appearance in the Rose Bowl.

SMU lost the Rose Bowl to Stanford 7-0, but were still selected the national champion by the Dickinson system. In 13 games, they outscored their opponents 288 to 39.

The next great SMU teams came a decade later when the greatest player in school history helped them to consecutive conference titles and back-to-back trips to the Cotton Bowl.

Doak Walker was the 1940s version of current college football superstar Tim Tebow. Walker was a great player on the field, but his popularity transcended the game, thus taking both Walker and college football as a whole to a new level. The popularity of Walker was so great that a second level was built at the Cotton Bowl (often known as “The House That Doak Built”) to accommodate the large crowds clamoring to see him play.

A three-time All-American, Walker is considered by many to be the best player in Southwest Conference history. Walker claimed the Heisman Trophy as the best college football player in the country as a junior in 1948 and finished third in the voting as both a sophomore and senior. In 35 career games, he scored 303 career points and registered more than 3,500 yards rushing and passing.

Despite having a number of future NFL stars including Kyle Rote Sr., Forrest Gregg, Don Meredith, Jerry Mays, Bill Forester, Jerry Norton and Raymond Berry on the squad throughout the 1950s, the Mustangs were unable to duplicate the same level of success enjoyed in previous decades.

Further illustrating the rich history and tradition of SMU football, another Mustangs’ player during the 1950s was Lamar Hunt, who would go on to help start the American Football League and eventually would become the first of four former SMU football players enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

In 1962, the Mustangs hired Arkansas assistant coach Hayden Fry to guide the program. After struggling during his first four seasons, Fry led the Mustangs to their first SWC championship in 18 years in 1966. The Mustangs earned a bid to the Cotton Bowl, but were defeated by Georgia.

It was during Fry’s tenure that SMU became the first school in the SWC to give a scholarship to an African-American football player. Jerry LeVias was not just an All-American receiver for the Mustangs, but also an Academic All-American.

As a sophomore in 1966, LeVias was a key member of the conference championship squad. As a senior, he helped SMU to an 8-3 record and a victory over Oklahoma in the Bluebonnet Bowl.

Several SMU players from the 1960s and 1970s went on to have prominent NFL careers including LeVias, Mike Livingston, Louie Kelcher, Wayne Morris, Ray Schoenke and Dennis Partee.

Fry was fired following the 1972 season and in 1976, UNLV coach Ron Meyer was hired to guide the Mustangs. In 1980 he led SMU to an 8-4 record and their first bowl appearance since 1968.

The Mustangs seemed headed to victory in the Holiday Bowl as they led BYU 45-25 with little more than two minutes remaining in the contest. Amazingly, quarterback Jim McMahon led the Cougars to three late touchdowns and a stunning 46-45 victory.

However, led by the dynamic running tandem of Eric Dickerson and Craig James, the “Pony Express” was just getting started.

SMU won their first conference title in 16 years and finished the 1981 season ranked fifth in the nation with a 10-1 record.

The following year under new head coach Bobby Collins, the only blemish on the record was a 17-17 tie with Arkansas in the final game of the regular season. SMU claimed their second straight SWC title and defeated Pittsburgh in the Cotton Bowl to finish ranked second in the country with an 11-0-1 record.

In 1981 the National Championship Foundation and in 1982 the Helms Athletic Foundation recognized the Mustangs as the top team in the country. The Mustangs finished with a 10-2 record in both 1983 and 1984. In 1984, the Mustangs were co-champions of the SWC and defeated Notre Dame in the Aloha Bowl.

Quarterback Lance McIlhenny was 34-5-1 during his tenure as the starting quarterback. Dickerson finished his career as SMU’s all-time leading rusher and finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting in 1982.

Other prominent Mustangs during this period included Wes Hopkins, Jerry Ball, Joe Phillips, Russell Carter, Michael Carter, Rod Jones, Ron Morris and Reggie Dupard.

Just as SMU was enjoying the greatest prolonged period of success in the history of the football program, the roof caved in.

After being put on probation for recruiting violations in 1985, SMU was again investigated by the NCAA the following year for allegedly making approximately $61,000 in booster payments to players in 1985 and 1986.

It was later discovered that SMU players and in some cases their parents, had been receiving money through a “slush fund” since the 1970s and that the administration became aware as early as 1981.

Because SMU was already on probation when the second set of violations were discovered, the Mustangs were eligible for what was termed the “death penalty” where the NCAA could suspend a program in an attempt to purge the culture of chronic abuse. This radical approach had been used only twice by the NCAA, both times in the sport of men’s basketball, in 1952 at the University of Kentucky and from 1973-75 at the University of Southwestern Louisiana.  

After the NCAA suspended the SMU football program for the 1987 season, the school also canceled the 1988 season.

Even though the football program was reinstated in 1989, the devastating impact of the NCAA punishment was evident for the next two decades.

The once proud tradition of the Southwestern Conference began a steady decline around the same time that SMU’s program was banished. Only three members of the SWC did not receive NCAA punishment during the 1980s. As a result, the top teams in the conference were no longer prominent on the national stage.

Following the completion of the 1995-96 school year, the SWC officially disbanded.

Many of the top schools from the league, including Texas, Texas A&M and Baylor, joined the Big Eight (which became the Big 12). Because SMU was still struggling to recover from the “death penalty”, the school was passed over by the Big 12 and instead joined the Western Athletic Conference (WAC). In 2005 they moved to Conference USA.

When football returned to SMU in 1989 the head coach was former NFL coach and Hall of Fame player Forrest Gregg, but in two seasons coaching his alma mater Gregg could muster only three victories.

Between 1989 and 2008, SMU managed only one winning season and four years with as many as five victories.

However, under the direction of second year head coach June Jones, in 2009 the Mustangs posted a 7-5 record and earned their first bowl trip since facing Notre Dame in the Aloha Bowl on December 29, 1984.

Proving that things do come full circle, the Mustangs will be back in Hawaii nearly 25 years later to face Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve.

Regardless of whether SMU is victorious on the field in Hawaii, the Mustang players can revel in the fact that through their performance in 2009 they will be adding their own positive chapter to the storied history of SMU football and forever proving that in college football you can come back from the dead.

This article is an original story from Sports Then and Now , which was created to give passionate sports fans a place where they can analyze and discuss current sports topics while also remembering some of the great athletes, moments, teams and games in sports history all at one site. If you haven't been there yet, check it out today.

Below are free college football picks & college football predictions for November 14th 2009 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free college football picks on a daily basis or premium NCAA football predictions from our college football betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day for exclusive sports betting information and insight.

Free Pick: SMU -6
After winning just one game last year, June Jones has the 5-4 Mustangs in a position to get Bowl eligible. Hard to figure the Miners who beat Tulsa and Houston at home but are just 1-3 SU and ATS on the road with losses at Memphis and Tulane. Couldn’t find a worse spot in second of three roadies. Swallow hard knowing SMU is 0-6 L6 as a fave and rushes for less than 100 ypg but … the Miners give up a whopping 467 (211/256) ypg and 144 points in their last three road games. Last week, SMU took a half to get going against Rice. Razor sharp Mustangs roll 45-24. - Courtesy of Dennis Macklin

Free Pick: Nebraska vs. Kansas Under 43
Last week we used Oklahoma/Nebraska under as the Free Play and were rewarded with an easy 10-3 winner. Right back with Nebraska here as the Blackshirts are in mid-90’s form allowing 10.3 ppg, allow just 93 ypg overland, and just 272 ypg overall. The Jayhawks have gone in the tank with four straight losses and just 44 points in their last three games. Don’t see the Jayhawks getting ten here and the Huskers on offense would be life and death to get 24 against Delaware State. Play the Under. - Courtesy of John Anthony

There’s an adage that comes to mind when we hear that SMU head coach June Jones, with help from the Pickens family, has put into motion plans to alter the mascot traditions of SMU…

“A good team can make a mascot look great—but a great mascot can’t help a poor team play better.”

SMU is fortunate to have a coach of Jones’s caliber and SMU loyalists are excited that this may be the first step in creating a football program that achieves a higher level of on-field success while maintaining exceptional academic standards.

But SMU is equally fortunate to have as its mascot a series of Shetland ponies, consecutively named Peruna, that have been the lead and the pride of SMU activities and athletics for decades.

Jones’ attempts to toy with the traditions of SMU’s current mascot, Peruna VIII, by introducing an actual mustang as a “co-mascot” seem only to telegraph his desire to do away with 75 years of beloved and iconic traditions.

Some would rather see Jones spend his time working with his quarterback.

What Jones really should do with Peruna is make him look cool by associating him with a more successful football program!

Sure, Rome wasn’t built in a day and recreating a winning tradition for a college football team does take time…But many college programs take great pride in their “interesting” mascots and do so because of uniqueness, tradition, time, and some history of success. 

Want some examples? 

Just look at Ohio State’s mascot Brutus Buckeye or the Duck of Oregon. 

How about the Hoosiers of Indiana?  Maybe a handful of people know what a Hoosier is but Bobby Knight and his basketball program made whatever those things are the envy of hoops fans everywhere.

Even Nebraska made a Cornhusker look very intimidating just as Maryland, sometimes anyway, made a turtle look tough.

So, here’s hoping that coach Jones sees the value in SMU’s Peruna traditions and rethinks his strategy to alter the perception of Mustang athletics by putting this Shetland out to pasture.

2009 SMU Mustangs Predictions
2008 Record: (1-11, 0-8)
Coach: June Jones, 2nd year (1-11 SMU, 77-52 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Dan Morrison (2nd year)
Def. Coordinator: Tom Mason (2nd year)
Returning Starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Bo Levi Mitchell)

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Offense: The Mustangs return eight starters from the 98th ranked offense (314.3ypg). That certainly doesn’t typify a June Jones offense, but turnovers were the main culprit. Sophomore QB Bo Levi Mitchell threw 23 picks and the team finished next-to-last in interceptions thrown. They have two weapons in senior WR Emmanuel Sanders (67 catches for 958 yards) and junior Aldrick Robinson (59 for 1,047 yards). At running back, junior Chris Butler is the likely starter, who ran for 174 yards. The running game is usually not a staple of the run-and-shoot, though they are putting more emphasis on a pistol formation, where the qb lines up closer to center and the running back is four yards behind the qb. The offensive line returns three starters.

Defense: The defense returns seven starters from a unit that allowed 479.5 yards per game (118th in the nation) and 38.2ppg. Jones moved the defense to a 3-4 to utilize their athletes. Junior Pete Fleps (6-1, 228) moves from strongside linebacker to the middle and will call the signals. Fleps led the team last year with 106 tacdkles. They also return junior Youri Yenga (6-1, 223), who moves from end to outside linebacker. He led the Mustangs with 6.5 tackles last year and 10. 5 tackles for loss. This a young team that will have to get better up front, if they have a chance to improve. They’ll use their quickness at linebacker and athletes in the secondary to get more pressure on the quarterback. Senior CB Bryan McCann leads the way in the secondary with three interceptions. All four members of the secondary return.

Outlook: The Mustangs aren’t really shying away from competition, despite winning just one game last year. They do open with Stephen F. Austin, but after that, they take on Washington State on the road, are at TCU and host Navy. They aren’t gimmes, but will at least be winnable games. This will be a tough season for the Mustangs, but expect some improvement as they are still adjusting to the run-and-shoot and 3-4 schemes.

This CUSA prediction is courtesy of the ATS Sports Blog. If you are looking for winning college football betting picks be sure to choose ATS Consultants this year, A featured sports handicapping service on Touthouse.com