Jacob deGrom

Superstar pitcher Jacob deGrom left the New York Mets in free agency, signing a five-year, $185 million deal with the Texas Rangers, and he opened up about his decision during a press conference Thursday.

"The Rangers did a great job with constant communication and making me feel like they really wanted me here," deGrom said, per ESPN. "The vision was the same: Build something great and win year in and year out."

DeGrom added that Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, who agreed to significant deals with the Rangers last offseason, played a large role in his decision to join the club.

The right-hander, who has been beset by injuries over the last several years, spent the first nine seasons of his career with the Mets, winning two Cy Young Awards and an ERA title. He was also named to the All-Star Game four times.

In search of a more lucrative deal this winter, deGrom opted out of the final guaranteed year of his pact with the Mets, which was worth $30.5 million (New York held a $32.5 million club option for '24). During his tenure with the club, he went 82-57 with a 2.52 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 1,607 strikeouts in 1,326 innings across 209 starts.

DeGrom's best season came in 2018 when he went 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 269 strikeouts in 217 innings across 32 starts.

Last season, he went 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 64.1 innings across 11 starts. He didn't make his season debut until August because of a stress reaction in his right scapula.

The Rangers hope deGrom can stay healthy and headline their rotation for years to come. He joins a group that includes Jon Gray, Jake Odorizzi, Martín Pérez and the newly signed Andrew Heaney.

If all goes to plan, the Rangers could make a postseason appearance in 2023 for the first time since 2016.

Pitchers like Jacob deGrom come around once in a generation, but it only took the New York Mets a few days to find a suitable replacement.

On Monday, the first big story from MLB's winter meetings broke when Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander has agreed to terms on a two-year, $86 million deal with the Mets with a vesting option for a third year.

That's right in line with the three-year, $130 million deal Max Scherzer signed with New York last offseason in terms of average annual value (AAV). The future Hall of Famers are slated to share the starting rotation for the next two years as the Mets chase a World Series title.

Shelling out roughly $86 million for two players is uncharted territory when you consider Scherzer's deal last winter set an AAV record. To put that combined figure into perspective, it's more than the Miami Marlins ($83.0M), Cleveland Guardians ($66.5M), Pittsburgh Pirates ($66.2M), Oakland Athletics ($48.4M) and Baltimore Orioles ($44.9M) spent on their entire rosters in 2022, according to Spotrac.

It's risky to put so much on the shoulders of two players—even players as accomplished as Scherzer and Verlander—but it was the right move for the Mets, and it puts them in a great position for the remainder of the offseason and in the years to come.

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Father Time Has Been Kind

The easy argument against what the Mets have done is that they are pinning their title hopes on a 39-year-old (Verlander) and a 38-year-old (Scherzer) who both have more than 2,500 innings on their arms and could fall off dramatically in the coming years.

That said, these two have proved to be exceptions to the rule of late-30s decline.

After pitching a grand total of six innings in 2020 and 2021 because of Tommy John surgery, Verlander returned to go 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 185 strikeouts in 175 innings in 2022, winning his third AL Cy Young Award unanimously to close out an epic run in Houston.

What a run by Justin Verlander in Houston:

61-19, 2.26 ERA, 0.83 WHIP in 102 starts
2 Cy Young Awards
1 Cy Young runner-up
300-strikeout season
ALCS MVP
3rd no-hitter
3,000th strikeout
2 World Series titles

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) December 5, 2022

Meanwhile, Scherzer missed time in 2022 with an oblique strain, but he was every bit the elite starter we've grown accustomed to, finishing 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 173 strikeouts in 145.1 innings.

Both players have terrific stuff, but their understanding of how to keep hitters off-balance and their ability to limit walks have truly helped them succeed beyond their prime years. They have the chance to put the finishing touches on their respective legacies together.

Career strikeouts:

12. Justin Verlander (3,198)
13. Max Scherzer (3,193)

History, every night.

— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) December 5, 2022

For as much as their ages might seem like an issue, the list of pitchers who have enjoyed significant success at age 38 or older is longer than you might think.

Randy Johnson won his fourth straight Cy Young and had a 10.7-WAR season at 38. Roger Clemens won his sixth Cy Young at 38 years old and his seventh Cy Young three years after that, although a PED cloud hangs over his accomplishments. Nolan Ryan won strikeout titles at ages 40, 41, 42 and 43.

Those guys are the exception rather than the rule, but isn't that also what Verlander and Scherzer have been throughout their careers given their sustained success? Count the ZiPS projection system among those who are bullish on Verlander's next two years.

Given how volatile pitching performance can be, it might be safer to bank on a pair of late-30s superstars to continue to produce at a high level than to roll the dice on younger options with a shorter track record of success.

So why not just re-sign Jacob deGrom? We have some thoughts on that...

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Letting Jacob deGrom Walk Was the Right Move

It's never easy to let a franchise icon walk, but the reality is that Jacob deGrom was the riskiest player on this year's free-agent market.

His injury history includes terms like "forearm strain" and "stress reaction in shoulder" that would make any medical staff cringe, and he has made just 26 starts and pitched 156.1 innings over the past two seasons.

He's several years younger than Verlander, but at age 34, he would similarly be classified as "old" relative to the average player's prime and career length.

For a team like the Mets with the ability to spend and the desire to win now, spending $6 million more in AAV on a two-year deal with Verlander made far more sense than locking in a five-year, $185 million commitment, which deGrom received from the Texas Rangers.

The Mets have Scherzer and Verlander lined up to hit free agency at the same time following the 2024 season, and they've gone all-in on this veteran core for the next two years without mortgaging their future flexibility.

With James McCann, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar also set to come off the books after the 2024 campaign, the Mets can look to backload any additional long-term deals they sign this winter, balancing their payroll situation without flying too far past the luxury-tax threshold in the next two years.

That's good, because as exciting as a Verlander-Scherzer one-two punch sounds, the Mets have more work to do before Opening Day.

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What's Next for the Mets?

Even with Scherzer coming back and Verlander in the fold, the starting rotation is not a finished product.

Here's the projected starting staff, courtesy of Roster Resource:

• RHP Justin Verlander
• RHP Max Scherzer
• RHP Carlos Carrasco
• RHP Tylor Megill
• LHP David Peterson

Megill started strong last season but missed three months with a shoulder strain and finished with a 5.13 ERA in 47.1 innings.

Peterson has a 4.26 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 222 innings over the past three seasons. While he has shown flashes of being a solid starting option, he probably fits best as a swingman or rotational depth on a team with World Series aspirations.

The Verlander signing likely takes them out of the market for Carlos Rodón, but a number of second-tier arms could be a fit, including a potential reunion with Chris Bassitt.

The 33-year-old reportedly seeks a deal longer than three years, though the Mets' early interest in such a contract was described as unenthusiastic.

Chris Bassitt has been seeking a contract of longer than three years. It doesn’t sound like the Mets are enthusiastic about going four or five years on Bassitt, who turns 34 in February.

— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) December 4, 2022

The late bloomer is likely trying to secure as much guaranteed money as possible this winter, so he could be the perfect target for a backloaded deal. Maybe something like a four-year, $70 million contract that pays him $15 million in 2023 and 2024, and $20 million in 2025 and 2026, would make sense for all involved.

A similar offer might also make sense for Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi or Japanese right-hander Koudai Senga.

Beyond the starting rotation, the Mets are also in the market for an outfielder.

Familiar face Brandon Nimmo might take a nine-figure payday to bring back. While that's not out of the question and could also work better with some backloading, the Mets have been linked to Andrew Benintendi as well. One of the youngest players on the market, Benintendi could prefer a short-term deal with an opt-out, giving him a chance to revisit the market in a year or two.

Short-term deals with significant AAVs that don't clog the books could be the name of the game for the Mets. That approach, along with some strategic backloading, could allow them to make more major moves before the winter is over.

This is how you aggressively build a World Series contender without digging the organization into a hole that will take years to recover from once the window of contention with the current core closes.

For now, circle the June 19-21 series between the Mets and Astros in Houston as one of the must-see matchups of the 2023 season.

Jacob deGrom is a Texas Ranger now, and his bank account and the team's watchability are better for it.

Whether the Rangers will do as much winning as they want around deGrom is a whole 'nother question. And in a related story, there's now a question about what the Mets will do with the deGrom-sized hole in their starting rotation.

Let's grant that the Mets didn't let deGrom go without a fight. Or, more accurately, a solid offer. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports it was in the range of three years and $120 million. Had the 34-year-old accepted, the $40 million average annual value of his deal would have ranked behind only fellow multi-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer.

But, well, can you blame deGrom for accepting the Rangers' five-year, $185 million offer?

The best pitcher in baseball is ours. pic.twitter.com/ZydQmZSqoW

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) December 3, 2022

No. No you cannot. Beyond being more than what the Mets—who reportedly never got to make a final offer—offered deGrom, it's substantially more than even the most generous contract forecasters had pegged him for.

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deGrom Is the Big Winner Here

It's appropriate that deGrom would end his first foray into free agency by blowing away expectations. Story of his career, as it were.

Far from a can't-miss prospect, deGrom was only a ninth-round pick out of Stetson University in 2010. His pro career got off to an inauspicious start when he underwent Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter, and at no point between then and his major league debut in May of 2014 was he considered a top-100 talent.

We all know what happened next, of course.

National League Rookie of the Year in 2014. All-Star and postseason sensation in 2015. Then continued excellence in 2016 and 2017, followed by a transformation into "deGOAT" starting with the first of back-to-back Cy Young Award-winning seasons in 2018 and 2019.

Between 2018 and 2021, deGrom pitched to a 1.94 ERA with 655 more strikeouts than walks. This was largely an exercise in him throwing hard, harder, hardest and hardest-er, culminating in him averaging 99.3 mph on his four-seamer and 91.4 mph on his slider in '21.

There are nonetheless good reasons why you could practically hear an audible gasp coming from the baseball world when the Rangers announced their deal with deGrom.

The short version: The guy was sidelined for more than a year between July 7, 2021 and Aug. 2, 2022, initially by way of forearm and elbow trouble and then because of persistent shoulder injuries. He's made only 12 starts since that fateful date in July.

There was never any doubt that deGrom made the right call when he opted out of his contract with the Mets, but his age and the spooky shadow cast by those injuries invariably put a damper on expectations for what he would find on the open market. Nobody (including us) saw him getting anything longer than three years, much less a guarantee at the high end of the $100 million range.

And yet, here we are. Or rather, there he is. The same Jacob deGrom, only now with more money than he could spend in multiple lifetimes. That deserves a tip of the ol' cap and an unironic "good for him."

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The Rangers Get an 'A' for Effort, Anyway

As for how deGrom's contract landed so far above and beyond expectations, one assumes it was a case of his agents at VC Sports Group driving a hard bargain with an organization that really was that desperate for starting pitching.

General manager Chris Young, who took over leadership of the team's front office after Jon Daniels was fired in August, indeed said this was the case in November. And rightfully so, given that Rangers starters ranked 25th in rWAR this past season.

Cold take: signing deGrom will help move that needle in the right direction.

Semi-hot take: not enough to make Rangers a good team, though.

The Rangers were more than just one player away from better things as they were losing 94 games this year, and FanGraphs' WAR projections for 2023 still only tab them as the fourth-best team in the American League West.

Even with six spots now up for grabs, the Rangers are thus less than a shoo-in for this year's playoffs. That could change depending on what else they do with their winter, but that hinges on how much further they're willing to push their payroll. At $170 million, it's already projected to set a new franchise record in 2023.

What's more, Young's reasoning for believing that deGrom can be the difference-maker the club needs is at least half-suspect:

“Certainly we acknowledge that there's been, in the last couple of years, some injuries. But we also feel comfortable with the way Jacob finished the season, the way the ball was coming out of his arm right at the end of the season. We feel like we have a great medical team. We have high confidence in their ability to keep our players on the field.

The fact check on the Rangers having a great medical team reads as "true." Per Spotrac, the 623 days their pitchers logged on the injured list in 2022 were the fourth-fewest in MLB.

Still, having a great medical team isn't the same as having a stable of miracle workers. And while deGrom could potentially help his own durability cause by easing up on the velo, he's at an age where that might start happening whether he wants it to or not.

Such was the case even this season, as his fastball velocity was vintage at the start and then began to sag:

While deGrom did find the gas again in his one and only playoff start, that was coming off seven days of rest. That's a luxury the likes of which he won't often have going forward.

Of course, deGrom doesn't necessarily need to earn every last dime of his $185 million in 2023 alone. But sooner would certainly be better, as both his dominance and durability are likely to become even bigger question marks as he gets closer to his age-39 season and the end of the guaranteed portion of his contract in 2027.

If the Rangers fail to win because of deGrom in the near-term, it doesn't figure to be any easier to win in spite of him in the longer term. The amount of money they have invested in him, Corey Seager ($32.5 million AAV) and Marcus Semien ($25 million AAV) will require the Rangers to score on basically every player they develop from within in the coming years.

The current strength of their farm system makes that doable in theory, but there's a reason that "prospects will break your heart" is a saying in reality. And as the Rangers' recent history isn't exactly littered with homegrown success stories, the benefit of the doubt is hard to give.

All of this is to say that the Rangers don't get a "good for them" to go with deGrom's "good for him." What they deserve is more like a "good luck."

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Pressure's on You Now, Mets

It was only a couple weeks ago that Mike Puma of the New York Post reported that the "organizational belief" within the Mets was that deGrom was going to stay put.

Well, you know what they say. Money talks, and organizational beliefs walk.

The good thing about this situation for the Mets is that deGrom's decision didnt come at a moment that left the team with little in the way of fallback options. Justin Verlander, a three-time Cy Young Award winner in his own right, and Carlos Rodón, who's been perhaps MLB's most dominant pitcher on a rate basis over the last two years, are still available.

The Mets are determined to add one of them, according to SNY's Andy Martino, who further adds that Verlander is "front and center" in the team's plans.

Neither Verlander nor Rodón ever figured to come cheap, and it may be fair to assume that their price tags have only gone up in the wake of deGrom's pact with Texas. Dealing with the Mets may be a means to push said tags higher still, as the team's need of a deGrom-like ace is now hypothetically that much easier to explot.

It's a good thing, then, that Mets owner Steve Cohen's pockets go deep. Deeper than any other MLB owner's, at least, which will make it that much more disappointing if they suddenly become shallow in pursuit of Verlander or Rodón.

If it turns out that neither comes to Queens, the sting of deGrom's departure will become a sore that the Mets will be hard-pressed to cover up in 2023 and beyond.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

The New York Mets are going to need a new ace.

Star pitcher Jacob deGrom has agreed to a five-year deal with the Texas Rangers, the club announced Friday. The deal is worth $185 million and has a sixth-year option that could make it worth $222 million in total, per ESPN's Jeff Passan.

The Mets never made a final offer to deGrom, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.

DeGrom, in search of a more lucrative deal, became a free agent this winter after opting out of the final two years and $53 million on his five-year contract with the Mets. He had spent the first nine years of his career in New York, emerging as one of the best arms in baseball despite a string of injuries.

In his nine seasons with the Mets, the two-time Cy Young winner and four-time All-Star went 82-57 with a 2.52 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 1,607 strikeouts in 1,326 innings across 209 starts.

DeGrom's best season came in 2018 when he went 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 269 strikeouts in 217 innings across 32 starts en route to his first-ever Cy Young award. He also won the Cy Young in 2019.

However, things got rough for deGrom after winning back-to-back Cy Youngs. He was limited to just 15 starts in 2021 because of an elbow injury and made just 11 starts in 2022 because of a shoulder ailment.

That said, he was still effective in each of those seasons when he did pitch. In 26 starts across 2021 and 2022, the 34-year-old posted a 12-6 record, 1.90 ERA, 0.63 WHIP and 248 strikeouts in 156.1 innings.

Despite the injuries, the Rangers are still getting one heck of an arm for their rotation. So, here's three instant reactions from Texas' blockbuster signing.

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Rangers Prove They're Ready to Contend in 2023

Despite the additions of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, the Rangers finished fourth in the American League West in 2022 with a 68-94 record and missed the postseason for the sixth straight year.

While the signing of deGrom may not truly make the Rangers contenders in the division alongside the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners, the club has at least proven it is sick of being a cellar-dweller and is ready to contend.

The Rangers were in desperate need of an ace on the mound following a disappointing 2022 campaign from its starters, and they did more than just address that need in signing deGrom.

Last season, the Rangers starting pitching ranked 25th in MLB with a 4.63 ERA. The only teams that were worse were the Oakland Athletics, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.

In 2023, deGrom will anchor a Texas rotation that includes Jon Gray, Jake Odorizzi and Martín Pérez, who was one of the team's best arms last season, posting a 12-8 record with a 2.89 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 32 starts.

The signing of deGrom proves the Rangers are willing to spend in order to improve, and they should at the very least post more wins in 2023 than they did in 2022. Even if they don't, they're ready to build their rotation around deGrom in the years to come.

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How Will Mets Replace DeGrom?

Let's be clear, there's no replacing deGrom. However, the Mets will need to at least attempt to address the hole his departure left in the rotation.

As it stands, Max Scherzer will serve as the team's No. 1 in 2023, and while the three-time Cy Young winner had a solid 2022 campaign, there's no question he's past his prime at 38. He posted a 11-5 record last season with a 2.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 173 strikeouts in 145.1 innings across 23 starts.

Beyond Scherzer, the Mets' rotation is filled out by Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill. With some top-tier talent still available on the market, it's hard to believe the club won't add another arm this winter.

Even before deGrom's exit, the Mets have sought out some of the top available free agent pitchers this winter, including Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon and Carlos Rodón.

Of course, all are being pursued by many, but with deGrom's contract off the books, the Mets should be making some interesting offers to some of the top arms available, especially after locking up superstar closer Edwin Díaz to a five-year, $102 million deal.

It's unclear which of those arms, if any, are New York's top target following deGrom's exit. However, Verlander should at least be very high on the list.

The 39-year-old is coming off arguably his best season in 2022, posting an 18-4 record, 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 185 strikeouts in 175 innings across 28 starts. He also won the Cy Young award, the third of his career.

What's even more impressive is that Verlander accomplished the feat after missing all but one game in 2020 and the entire 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

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Will DeGrom Be Worth the Money?

$185 million—and potentially up to $222 million—is a lot of money to commit to deGrom. One of the biggest questions following this signing is: Will deGrom be worth the money?

The simple answer is that it all comes down to health.

If deGrom remains mostly healthy throughout his five-year career, then it's reasonable to believe he will be more than worth the $185 million the Rangers committed to him. But if he's constantly out of the lineup with injuries, then there's a problem.

DeGrom hasn't made more than 15 starts in a season since he made 32 starts and won the Cy Young in 2019. While that was just four years ago, he has endured a significant amount of injuries since then, including elbow inflammation, a stress reaction in his scapula and forearm tightness.

However, the Rangers will likely keep a close eye on deGrom throughout his tenure knowing that he has been injury-prone over the last few seasons. Managing his starts will be key to keeping him healthy through the duration of his contract.

There should be optimism about deGrom entering 2023, but fans will undoubtedly be concerned if he misses a significant amount of time next season.

The New York Mets must fill another spot in their starting rotation after Jacob deGrom left for the Texas Rangers in free agency on a five-year, $185 million deal on Friday, per ESPN's Jeff Passan.

The 2023 rotation should look vastly different than last year's group, with deGrom gone and right-handers Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker also free agents.

Mets owner Steve Cohen isn't shy about spending money, though, as evidenced by the team's league-high 2023 projected Opening Day payroll of $235 million.

Some big-name pitchers remain on the free-agent market, and that list starts with reigning American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander.

Per Andy Martino of SNY, Verlander is now "front and center" for the Mets.

The nine-time All-Star and surefire Hall of Famer went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 185 strikeouts in 175.0 innings for the Houston Astros last year en route to a World Series victory. It was an incredible effort for the 39-year-old, who came back after missing nearly all of the past two seasons because of Tommy John surgery.

Verlander looks better than ever now. His 2.49 FIP was the best mark of his career, per Baseball Reference. He's also now won the AL Cy Young in his last two full seasons and arguably could have won in 2018 as well before finishing as runner-up to Blake Snell.

He's not the only top pitcher New York can pursue, though. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Mets are also "focusing their attention" on free-agent left-hander Carlos Rodón, who just went 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 237 strikeouts in 178 innings for the San Francisco Giants.

Rodón, who turns 30 on Dec. 10, was set to meet the Mets this week, per Martino. He's set to cash in big after opting out of his Giants deal. The Mets would have competition for him, of course, with the crosstown Yankees notably in the mix, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Those are the two top options for the front end of the rotation alongside ace Max Scherzer.

New York can also pursue Kodai Senga, who is headed to MLB after dominating with Nippon Professional Baseball's Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

The 29-year-old right-hander went 11-6 with a 1.89 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 148 innings last year. Will Sammon of The Athletic reported on Nov. 17 that Senga spoke with the Mets.

"Some who have scouted Senga have been impressed with a fastball that can hit triple digits coupled with a tumbling splitter," Sammon wrote in part. "The knock on him is that he will likely need to better develop a third pitch or breaking ball."

New York could also re-sign Bassitt, who fared well as the team's No. 3 starter. He went 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA in 2022. Bassitt, who is entering his age-34 season, finished top-10 in the AL Cy Young voting in 2020 and 2021 with the Oakland Athletics.

Ultimately, the Mets should squarely plant themselves in the starting-pitcher market following Friday's news.