North Texas Mean Green Football

Another week, another QB lost.

Army intimidated, frustrated, and eventually broke the leg of talented UNT sophomore QB Derek Thompson on Saturday.  UNT was forced to go with last year's starter, Riley Dodge, for most of the game.

In a hugely discouraging moment for fans (and probably the players as well), the coaching staff appeared to throw their hands up in despair as they lost their 7th, 8th, and 9th players to likely season ending injuries.

Third team QB Riley Dodge looked rusty, timid, and without much strength for most of the game.  He completed 8 out of 17 passes for a dreary 63 yards.

Only late in the game when UNT appeared to run the Todd Dodge spread (complete with gopher-like looks to the sidelines for instructions) for a few plays did Riley seem to show any competence.  He completed 4 of 6 passes for 39 yards with 1 run for 8 yards and 2 sacks for -11 yards on UNT's final drive.

While it is entirely likely Riley Dodge would look a lot sharper with a week of reps as the starter, I think it is actually the wrong move for Todd Dodge and company.

Ultimately Riley's arm is shot.  It was quite apparent vs. Army that his arm strength comes and goes and that he limits UNT's offense too much in the Canales system. Be it due to Canales not trusting Riley's arm deep or Riley not trusting it, the game creeps up to the line of scrimmage when Dodge is playing.

I have an alternate proposal that I think would help out UNT a lot more in the next few games.

What is needed

UNT needs an offensive identity.

Army and Rice have exposed how to attack the UNT defense.  If a team runs on UNT consistently they can wear out the UNT defense at the the defensive end and outside linebacker spots. 

For UNT to win, the Mean Green has to control the clock, keeping their defense off the field, their defensive ends from tiring out, and allowing their star DTs to come in fresh and play a big role in disrupting the opponent's running game.  The UNT offense has to roll up first downs.

Their offensive identity needs to be that of a chain moving, clock chewing offense that occasionally breaks big touchdown runs.

Proven Assets available

UNT has an All-American RB in Lance Dunbar.  He is the rare cutback runner who doesn't give up yardage angling for a better lane.  He has elite game breaking ability, but is not a strong short yardage runner.

Backup RBs James Hamilton and Brandin Byrd are aggressive runners who finish their runs well.  They are good short yardage runners.

UNT has 3 offensive linemen who were discussed as possible all-sunbelt players prior to the season in Tackles Victor Gill & Esteban Santiago, and Center turned Guard Kelvin Drake.  They also have good proven players around them with good size in T/G Jeremy Bean, G Coleman Feeley, and G Matt Tomlinson, and C Aaron Fortenberry

UNT has a trio of good TEs in Draylen Ross (the big blocker), Jamize Alawale (the raw deep threat), and Conor Gilmartin-Donahue (the do it all guy).

Finally the team has a receiver for most situations.  They have two raw burners at receiver who have occasional concentration lapses in Jamaal Jackson & Tyler Stradford, a slightly slower receiver with much better hands and concentration in Darius Carey,  two reliable and polished receivers in Alex Lott and Breece Johnson, three hit or miss guys with a history of mistakes of varying degree in the tough Michael Outlaw, the speedy BJ Lewis (if he is healthy now), and occasional playmaker Willie Taylor, and last but definitely not least freshman Brelan Chancellor who's redshirt year was wisely burned by the staff vs. Army when Chris Bynes was injured.  Chancellor is a very polished receiver for his age.  Like Dunbar, he has ordinary speed for his position but has the same  knack for running away from people.

I am sorry, this is still far more talent than all but the most elite teams in the Sun Belt.  Does any team in the Sun Belt have a better trio of linemen and a better RB?  Heck no!

Is UNT's receiving corps still in the top third of the Sun Belt ranks?  Heck yes!

Is this UNT offense still more talented than last year's? Absolutely.

So you coaches quit your bellyaching, pull yourselves out of your tear-filled beers, and go with what you got.

Play personnel to optimize the talent on hand.

UNT has 3 QBs available to lead the ship. Last year's starter Riley Dodge, last year's third string QB Chase Baine, and freshman Derek Teegarden.  

We can eliminate Teegarden.  Although he looks pretty solid in his high school films, he is 17 lbs LIGHTER than Riley Dodge. 

There is no sense in repeating the Riley Dodge fiasco and destroying this guy's body before it is ready to play FBS ball and endure that pounding.

I think the team should go with Chase Baine at QB with occasional spot work from Riley Dodge in the red zone.

It is certainly out of the box, but you have already lost your first and second string QBs and the difference between the third and fourth team QBs is not that pronounced.  Riley Dodge is more polished and knowledgeable, but frankly Baine is more talented and likely far, far more durable at this point.

The facts are Dodge's arm is too limited at this point and he is not physical enough running the ball. He gets ragdolled. Compounding the problem Dodge seems to have lost a lot of the instinct of when to hold on to the ball and when to hand off.  He has been keeping the ball a lot this year to poor results and when he has handed off his handoffs haven't been sharp.

Moreover, Dodge looked very timid playing against Army.  UNT cannot afford that from their QB.

Like most freshmen starters in offenses where the QB owns the ball, Riley Dodge was a turnover machine in most games last year. I think in ordinary situations one would expect him to outgrow that with work, but he hasn't had a ton of work this off-season.  The bad habits he developed getting pounded last year are still there.

Playing Riley Dodge every down is not a luxury the team can afford right now at the start of their run of more manageable games.  This team will fall apart if Dodge has a 4+ turnover game against one of these teams.

Chase Bain is about 15 lbs heavier than Riley Dodge and appears to my vantage point 1-2 inches taller.  He doesn't have any of the trauma screwing up his game that Dodge does. 

Whatever QB UNT starts is going to have to run.  He is going to have to take a pounding.  That QB is going to have to run options with Lance Dunbar and roll outs.

Does the coaching staff really want to risk losing Dodge to another injury?  Even another shoulder injury?

Given Riley Dodge's history it is unlikely he will last more than a game or two anyway as a full time starter behind a line that has lost confidence in it's ability to pass block at an elite level.  I have long suspected that the move of Riley was in large part to allow the kid a full year to properly heal up and see what he is next year.  You are just inviting the injury gods to permanently finish him as a QB to role him out there as a full time starter behind a line with shaken confidence after seeing two future NFL DEs in the first 3 weeks.

Riley Dodge is one of the greatest winners in Texas high school football history.   He won his games at the 5A level, the highest level of play in Texas.  He may not have the skills anymore  to be an effective every down starter, but he still knows how to execute a game winning play under pressure.

At some point in the next 5 weeks there is a fairly good chance that UNT will be down by less than a touchdown with the game clock running down and Lance Dunbar or Tyler Stradford will break a big play that gets UNT to the 7 or 8 yardline.

When that occurs do you want Riley Dodge ready to fill in and play his accurate short yardage game, or do you want him standing next to the coaches with ice wrapped around his shoulder or in street clothes holding a clipboard?

This team needs Riley Dodge available for game winning situations and to play inside the 10 yard line if the situation merits it in the next 5 weeks.  The coaching staff needs every possible edge to secure wins.  They shouldn't start him if it diminishes the chances he will be available for those situations.

Plus, if Dodge were to start and to go down again, at that point UNT is going to have to run out Chase Baine anyway to finish out a game - and that would be a Chase Baine who would not have been given any reps!

That is just a recipe for another give away loss.

Getting Baine ready to go is a smart pre-emptive move.

Baine plays the game similarly to Riley Dodge, but is more physical and has a better, undamaged arm.  Baine is 6'0" and 210 lbs. Baine plays the game like an option QB who has learned to pass well enough to be functional in a spread.  He also plays with some moxy. The thicker Baine is far more likely to get a first down running the ball than Riley Dodge would be.

While I don't think Baine could be as accurate as Dodge, I do think he could complete 55% of his passes, throw a 35 yard pass with consistency, maybe run for 70 yards in a game without getting injured, show the strength to get a first down on a dive or QB sneak, and maintain a plus TD to turnover ratio. That I have seen he plays within his limits-like Nathan Tune.

Modifying the offense

With Tune and Thompson out, the value gained by all those snaps in the Canales offense over the off-season is largely lost.

Riley Dodge's skillset (and most of the offensive skilled players' skillsets) are not suited for the Canales offense.  They have talent and speed, but largely lack the polish, attributes, and precision to make it function right.   James Hamilton -more of a straight line runner- is more effective in the Canales offense than All-American Lance Dunbar.  Jamaal Jackson and Tyler Stradford are fish on bicycles trying to run precise routes, work the sidelines, and hold on to passes.

Today, the Canales offense minimizes the best talents on the UNT offense.  With reps and strength training that may not be the case next season, but it is this season - and this season is the one that matters.

On top of that as a fourth stringer Baine has probably had little work in the Canales offense, but he did get some in the old Dodge offense last year as a third stringer and occasional backup.

The Canales offense spreads teams horizontally with the run and the pass.  Without a QB who can throw the ball 30 yards down the field,  the defense squeezes forward, minimizing what the Canales offense can accomplish.  Runner and receivers moving horizontal don't have the space to turn vertical and finish their runs and get stopped short of first downs. This team has to be a little more vertical in it's attack to get any benefit out of Stradford and Jackson.

That just isn't happening.

Additionally, and more importantly, the Canales offense limits Dunbar as a runner.

Regardless of who they go with, UNT effectively has to squeeze in an off-season of QB preparation into a week.  You can't do that with an offense as complex as the Canales offense.

I think there is a crying need for both of UNT's offensive coaching minds to sit down with Riley Dodge and Chase Baine and come up with a short list of offensive plays that fit the two QB's and the team's skillsets.

Go through the Dodge and Canales playbooks and select the best handful of plays from both for the team to practice this week.

Watch the films of every TD Lance Dunbar scored last year and make sure those plays are in your truncated playbook and starred for heavy rotation.

Put together a skeleton list of plays short enough to allow the players to work on them and get them down in time for the next game.

In general, I would suggest running the Todd Dodge Gopher spread offense on most plays between the 20s and then shifting into a limited version of the Canales offense (with no shotgun plays) in short yardage and goalline situations as it is far better for those situations.

The plain facts are Canales has been unable to utilize Dunbar effectively in the Canales offense.  Putting a TE on the field forces a CB off the field to be replaced by a safety or even a linebacker.  That doesn't help Dunbar and frankly increase the odds of one of UNT's QBs getting knocked out of the game on a bootleg. 

You can't afford that.

Dunbar is a non-red zone weapon.  He can break a TD run from anywhere outside of the red zone at any minute. He is a huge threat and a great decoy.

He is only being used as a decoy this year.   He has to be used more than he is in the Canales offense and more effectively.   He is a huge reason UNT rolled up so many yards between the 20's last year.  His ability to beat average to poor defenses is hugely needed now.

You have to get Dunbar going if this team is going to win.  He has to carry this offense. He has to break some TD runs. Dunbar's skillset is much more effectively utilized out of the Dodge offense.

There can't be any sacred cows with everyones' jobs on the line.  Canales needs to bite his tongue and take a perception hit for his boss. (Frankly this will make him a better OC down the road anyway.)

Baine can run the option with Dunbar as well if not better than Riley Dodge did last year.   Baine is a similar runner but one with more power.  He can handle the ball well in the handoffs.  He is probably a little less likely to fumble than Riley Dodge as unlike Riley, Baine was weightlifting rather than being pounded into goo last year.

With the depth UNT has at receiver they can send 4 receivers down the field on every down if they want to try to clear space underneath for Dunbar to work.  Baine has a good enough arm and is accurate enough to be somewhat credible as a passer.

The team can shift into the Canales offense in the red zone or in short yardage.   In those scenarios, they can either throw underneath to Dunbar or bring in James Hamilton or Brandin Byrd -  backs far more suited to running in the Canales offense and picking up short yardage.

Play selection goals.

UNT has to become more of a running team.  Through 3 games they have run the ball 38 times per game (14 by QBs) and passed 35 times per game.   They need to start focusing on moving the chains by running the ball to allow their defense a better chance to record stops and keep the team in games.

They need goals of having 60 rushes and 35 passes a game.  Hitting something closer to 50 rushes per game and 30 passes (what UNT did vs. Clemson, a good BCS defense) would be good. 

Nathan Tune had 15 carries vs. Clemson.  I think Chase Baine can handle 10-15 carries.

I think in an average game for the next 5 weeks, the goal should be to generate a stat line line like this:

Rushing
Dunbar 25 for 150 yards 1 TD
Baine 10 for 40 yards
Hamilton 7 for 35 yards 1 TD
Byrd 4 for 15 yards
Dodge 4 for 10 yards 1 TD

Passing
Baine 15 of 27 for 190 yards 1 TD O INTs
Dodge 2 for 3 for 10 yards and 1 TD O INTs

Receiving
Carey 3 for 30 yards
Dunbar 3 for 30 yards
Chancellor 2 for 20 yards
Lott 2 for 15 yards
Lewis 2 for 20 yards
Jackson 2 for 15 yards
Johnson 1 for 8 yards 1 TD
Stratford 1 for 45 yards 1 TD
Outlaw 1 for 17 yards

That totals out to 250 yards rushing and 200 yards passing.  If the coaching staff really focuses on making the strategy changes that are needed to get Dunbar going, I think the passing game, scoring, and time of possession will take care of itself.  

These stats are not unreachable by any team with a good OL and a top RB.  Dunbar consistently had games of this magnitude or better last year against average to poor defenses in the Sun Belt.  This year he is just not getting the touches and is not being utilized well as a runner.

I think with the talent on hand and the marginal defenses coming up (I say marginal only in comparison to Clemson's defense), this can be a regularly achievable stat line goal.

Dunbar, the offensive line, and the defense can save Todd Dodge's job.  Dodge needs to let them.

UNT's Coaching staff needs to be creative and visionary

...Two things they absolutely were not vs. Army.

UNT is sitting on a stack of offensive talent. 

It is coached by two alleged offensive geniuses in Mike Canales and Todd Dodge.

It is time for the coaching staff to put away their preconceptions of what they thought the offense should look like this year, look at what they have, acknowledge what they need to win, and put this team's talent to optimal good use to meet those needs.

Welcome to the third of a series of weekly articles that would pose the big question The University of North Texas faces for each of their upcoming games.

UNT's players fought like hell last week, but a few mistakes cost them a victory against Rice.  Next on the schedule is a road trip to New York to play the Army Black knights who lost a close game to the University of Hawaii last week on a late fumble as Army was attempting to better position the ball for a game winning field goal.

Will Mike Canales develop a ball control game plan that does the things required to beat a military academy?

The academies require so much from their players athletically off the football field that they all share the same general characteristics in terms of team makeups.  They are always undersized for FBS teams.  Their players are extemely well conditioned and disciplined, and there is not a huge falloff from a starter to a backup as there often is at other FBS schools.

This really creates a scenario where all the academies largely have the same approach to the game, which in turn creates a very similar pattern in all the academy games.

The military academies generally have a shot at winning most games in the third and fourth quarters.

The Hawaii game is an excellent example of what could happen to UNT if Canales choses a heavy pass game plan.  Hawaii came in with a potent passing offense and rolled out to 21-0 lead.  Then they lost focus.  Army learned from their mistakes and figured out the UH offense.  Army rolled down the field to score against UH's somewhat suspect defense.  They quickly got the ball back.  They did it again. And again.  Before UH knew what happened they lost all their momentum and their offense was cold as they watched Army take a 28-21 lead behind Army's backup QB.

Hawaii's offense shook off the rust enough to tie the game only to see Army run the ball right down the field on Hawaii's worn out defense.  Army was in FG position and ran a play to center the ball better only to have a Hawaii player make a huge play punching the ball out of the Army QB's hands as he went down.

Hawaii moved into FG range, kicked it through the uprights, and breathed a sigh of relief as they feld Michie Field. 

It is pretty to imagine UNT going through a very similar game - except without the last minute save - based on past history.

Unlike at Hawaii, there is no culture of players making game winning plays at UNT.  There is a culture of losing focus on both sides of the ball and allowing leads to slip away that the players are trying to break.

And of course UNT may spot Army points with poor special teams play.

Like last week against Rice, UNT faces a school with much more recent success than UNT. Army's players better understand how to manage the highs and lows of the game without losing focus.

Like last week the defense will have to fight off the bad habit they had last year of mentally checking out after a turnover, blocked kick or punt, or a UNT TD.  They will have to fight Army on every play.  Army has no quit in them.  To beat them, UNT will have to match that discipline and focus.

But the real question will be on the offensive side of the ball.  Like against Clemson, UNT cannot afford to have Army run all over the Mean Green defense.  If Rice could wear UNT down with their backup running back, a 90+% running team like Army certainly is capable of doing the same.

Like he did against Clemson, Canales is going to have to come up with a game plan that controls the clock and rolls up yards.  The less Army's offense is on the field, the fresher UNT's defense will be and the better the center of UNT's defense should be able to control the Black Knight's running game.  The less Army's offense is on the field the better UNT's chances are of beating Army.

UNT ran the ball 49 times against Clemson and passed 34 times.  That is fairly close to the mix UNT would probably need to defeat Army.

Now it should be noted that 18 of those rushes vs. Clemson were runs by UNT's QBs.  Lance Dunbar only had 23 carries.  Really Dunbar should have upwards of 30 carries this week and the plays should be designed to really take advantage of his skillset as a runner.  The team really needs Dunbar to carry them this week.

Also, as I wrote in the last article about Todd Dodge and coaching oversight, with a transition to a very raw QB UNT's coaches should strongly consider taking a look at the offensive line and going with whatever makeup allows Lance Dunbar to have the most success.

Finally, Canales would be smart to save a package of plays for the fourth quarter.  Army players learn quickly how to take away an offense's bread and butter and Army's games are often tight.  Having a handful of plays that have been well practiced that UNT can strip Army's gears with late in the game can easily be the difference between winning and losing.

UNT has the players to win this game.  This week the focus rightly will be on the direction provided by Todd Dodge and both coordinators.

Last year I advocated North Texas Head Coach Todd Dodge bringing in an offensive coordinator to take full ownership of the offense - the thought being that that would free up Dodge to be able to distance himself from the day to day offensive minutia to be able to more quickly identify problems so they don't linger and cost the team more games unnecessarily.  Dodge would free himself to be the overseer of the team.

I doubt Todd Dodge reads Bleacher Reports or any other sources of UNT editorials, but after his old offensive coordinator left, Dodge appeared to independently arrive at the same conclusion.  He has an OC who runs the show and Dodge has been able to sit back and identify trouble areas. 

After watching the players' gutty performance vs. Rice come up short due to coaching decisions, I think it is time for timely action from the overseer.

I have come up with a series of suggestions designed to allow the most effective changes possible in the shortest time frame.  These are suggestions that hopefully can improve the team's chances of winning the next 6 games.

Suggestion 1: Special Teams - It appears it may be time to relieve Shelton Gandy of some or all of his duties in that area

Shelton Gandy is a great RB coach.  I think at this point there is enough film out there to reach the conclusion he is a below average as a part time special teams coach.  Perhaps as many have suggested the job is too big these days to be done on a part time basis.

Gandy had been able to put together a good kick return unit last year,  but those players weren't returning kicks vs. Rice. Not other special teams unit has worked at an above average level in the Gandy tenure.

UNT's special teams’ failure played a big role in UNT losing against Rice.  It cost UNT numerous games last season.  Dodge simply cannot afford to lose games the next 6 weeks over special teams’ breakdowns.

(A bit of an aside.  Dodge has probably lost 4-5 games in his tenure at UNT over poor special teams play.  It isn't much of a stretch to say if Dodge had the foresight to retain special teams ace coach Eric Russell when he walked in the door, UNT probably would have had extremely good special teams play rather than extremely bad special teams play the last few years.  Where bad special teams play has cost UNT 4-5 games over the Dodge era, it seems logical the opposite could have allowed UNT to steal 4-5 games they had no business stealing.   Hugely speculative, but how different would Dodge be perceived if his record was 15-23 today instead of 5-33?) 

UNT has a proven above average part time special teams coach in Defensive Coordinator Gary DeLoach.  He ran special teams and defensive backs for UCLA during his UNT hiatus.  There is little reason to believe DeLoach absolutely cannot handle some additional special teams responsibilities.

Like Offensive Coordinator Mike Canales, DeLoach is one of the highest paid assistants on the team.  Unlike Canales, DeLoach has proven he can coordinate competent special teams play.  I do not see anyone else on the staff that has a proven record as an average or better special team's coach.

Considering how much DeLoach is earning (a lot as far as UNT salaries go), he should be fielding a greater share of the responsibility for this teams' successes and failures.  Giving him that added responsibility assures that he does.

Suggestion 2: Special Teams - Starters should not automatically be excused from special teams.

UNT cannot afford it.  If DeLoach runs the show, maybe Dodge can excuse #1 CB Royce Hill as a favor to DeLoach, because the defense would have to change everything they are trying to do without him or Steven Ford, but that is it.

Jackson is probably the best kick returner in the Sun Belt.  Not playing him is crazy.

UNT cannot afford to have kicks & punts blocked.  If you have to play all your starters to get it done, it probably needs to happen.

It may seem like overkill, but at this point UNT needs their special teams issues solved.  Today... before it costs the team another game.

Suggestion 3: Running Game - A rule for Canales "When In doubt, Dunbar."

There is no disputing Canales has been a net positive so far, but on the same token there is no overlooking the fact he doesn't get Lance Dunbar the ball enough as a runner.

Dunbar got 23 carries vs. Clemson and 17 vs. Rice.  Dunbar made some All-American lists.  He needs more carries.  I personally feel the magic number is 25 carries.  I feel like if you don't get him 25 carries and you lose, it is on you.  Canales is wisely working Dunbar into the passing game, but that doesn't make up for carries.

Dunbar needs more carries in the third and fourth quarter specifically.  He is most dangerous when a defense gets a little fatigued.

I also think the coaching staff would be wise to watch the film of Dunbar last season and take a closer look at what worked last year.  Some of the plays they are running seem more appropriate for a straight line runner with some strength than for Dunbar, the rare cutback guy who doesn't run backwards much.

With a QB with fewer than 10 passes on his resume coming in, Canales would be wise to start relying on and entrusting the offense to Dunbar. 

Suggestion 4: Running Game - Take another hard look at the offensive line

Last week Dodge said they were running with Leppo because he is a smart player who makes the calls well and the team doesn't want to mess with their continuity.

Dodge may want to look at the Rice game film and see if there are too many concessions that had to be made  in terms of what UNT needs to do from here on out to allow that.

Let me spell out what I am saying here.

With Thompson and Dunbar being the running game, does it make sense to put your best run blockers in the middle of the line?  I think it might.

You have a power runner in Thompson and cutback runner with decent but not great speed who looks to get upfield as soon as possible in Dunbar.  That hits me as more of a north/south running game than the east/west running game that appears more natively a part of the Canales offense.

Kelvin Drake was not just an OK center 2 years ago.  He was a very good one.  He has the power that few centers have.  I think I am safe in saying UNT does not have a better run blocking option at center, while they might have some pretty good options at guard. UNT could play him at center and move Bean into the open guard spot.  Or move Esteban Santiago inside if the films suggest the weight is too much of an issue vs. pass rushers and start Bean at tackle.

Would that improve the running game? Would it allow the team to pick up the 2 yard gains on third and fourth downs that have been their Achilles heel in the Dunbar era?

With the UNT injury situation the way it is, it makes a lot of sense to look at the offensive line in terms of "what would help Lance Dunbar the most?" and whatever it is...go with that.

Suggestion 5: Passing Game - Thompson is not Nathan Tune, so the passing game will need to change its focus

With Tune in there the offense could throw all the sideline passes and know the ball would generally be placed to avoid INTs. Thompson is going to play it differently.  He is going to play to make plays and will put some balls out there that can easily be picked off.  It will be high risk, high reward play.

I think along those lines it makes sense to reduce the number of passing plays designed for short gains.  Or run Riley Dodge for a series or three to work those areas if they need to be worked.  If Riley isn't throwing mid to deep passes, he is not a big interception risk at all.

Keeping Thompson's pass count in the 20-30 range would dramatically decrease an opponent's ability to victimize the kid over his inexperience.  If Thompson is throwing 40 passes a game there is a pretty good chance for multiple interception, confidence eroding, nightmare games. Utilizing Dunbar more to decrease the pass count and lure the defense in closer is the smart thing to do.

Suggestion 6: Passing Game - The Riley Dodge factor

Thompson's north /south running style is an ideal compliment to Dunbar's running style.  Thompson is ideally suited to the short yardage situations where the coaching staff had planned to employ Dodge. 

It could make a great deal of sense to change the utilization of Riley Dodge now.  Now it would appear to make more sense giving Dodge a series here or there to work a team via short passes and perimeter running - areas where I would not say Thompson is strong.

t would play better to the fans.  Bringing Riley Dodge in tough situations opens the door for him to fail more than he succeeds, thereby turning the fans against him and painting his utilization as nepotism.  Giving the fans more reasons to dislike Todd Dodge only creates a negativity that can make it harder for the players to get on a winning roll.

Giving Riley a series or two where you run things entirely different from Thompson's bread and butter would make a lot of sense to the UNT fans who have no axe to grind with Todd Dodge.

Suggestions 7: Passing Game - Utilizing Wide Receivers better

UNT's receiving aces Darius Carey, Jamaal Jackson, and Tyler Stradford has a lousy night against Rice.  They had maybe 8 drops combined.

That is not likely to happen again this season, but it does open the door to something for consideration.

A lot of these drops were these guys trying to work the sideline.

Jackson and Stradford are burners with OK, not great hands or concentration.  Why not have them running their post plays or across the middle where in general they get a pass that comes in at a good angle that they can catch in full stride and they don't have to do a lot of adjusting to catch or worrying about their feet.   Those kinds of passes are Thompson's bread and butter anyway and he throws a very catchable pass on those plays. (With Thompson in there, you can utilize them and the somewhat slower BJ Lewis -4.53 speed - and much slower Michael Outlaw - 4.65 speed - in that fashion to great effectiveness.)  The Cowboys' passing offense from Turner to Zampese to Garrett has utilized their wide receivers in a similar way to create space for their running game. 

If UNT wants to work the sidelines, short, or underneath, the staff has guys like Chris Bynes, Alex Lott, and Breece Johnson who are extremely good technicians with reliable hands and good concentration.

It shouldn't be a rule, but it would make sense as something to keep in mind with game plan development.

Suggestion 8: Defensive line - finding a strong side DE and more depth on the DL

It is hard to imagine Obi and Akpunku playing much better than they did against Rice vs. the run.  They were able to bottle up the Rice starter, but as the game went on they wore down with the rest of the defense.  When Rice started running with their backup runner, a less skilled back who didn't give up any yardage angling for a big run, rice began to consistently gain 3-5 yards a carry.

That's the problem.  I think you have just seen the ceiling for Obi and Akpunku this year utilized as they are currently being used.  They can side off a block and help drag down a back from behind to prevent a big gain, but they can't beat a lineman like the DTs can holding their position and stuffing a run for no gain.  In spite of a fair push by Jackson and Atkinson up the middle, both DEs were ineffective edge rushers. 

Obi has historically needed a great push in the middle to allow him to get to the QB.  While it was promising to see him dig down deep and put an absolutely fierce power rush on to record a key sack towards the game's end, he was not effective as a pass rusher for most of the game because he lacks power.

Akpunku, I believe, was absolutely gassed from playing his butt off vs. the run and didn't rush the passer like he has shown he can.

Both of these guys have very bright futures, but we are talking at their senior year weight.  I understand rewarding their hard work, but at the end of the day UNT is still starting two DEs who probably only weigh 240 with rolls of quarters in their pockets.

We don't have quite enough disruption up the middle for them to be effective.  Like last year we need a power rusher at DE to make the pass rush work.

In the rice game the 260 lb Demario Dixon saw a fair number of snaps in relief of Obi and was pretty solid, but Akpunku had less relief and his backup Frank Gaines did not look ready.

That I could see, starting DTs Shavod Atkinson and Kelvin Jackson played almost every snap at DT. It is of course great to see their improved stamina, but it also suggests there may be a lack of confidence in the two DE's backing them up.  If you combine the two issues you can see a pattern that will cause these kinds of late game erosions more often than not.

There is more than enough talent to properly stock both positions, but it looks like the movement of John Weber and Brandon McCoy to DT has effectively shortened your bench dramatically.  

It might make a world of sense to have OBI and Akpunu again split the weakside end spot and use Weber, McCoy, and Dixon at the strong side DE.  If Weber and McCoy can credibly stuff the run well enough to be second team DTs, surely they can stuff the run at DE.  Tevinn Cantly can be the third DT if he's healthy enough.

It could even make sense to even give Draylen Ross, a former high school DE who spent the last two seasons as a DT,  a series at the strong side end spot to eat up some plays.

UNT has Army next. Generating a pass rush is not going to matter much agaisnt them and fatigue will kill your chances, so why not see what Weber and McCoy can do at their native spots?  This is a perfect game to try this out.

Suggestion 9: Linebackers - See if you can find some pass rushers

The sliding of Akpunku to OLB and Atkinson to DE in a 3/4 is a pretty cool change of pace, but what does it really accomplish to have your best pass rusher flailing about in coverage?  I think Akpunku needs to be moving forward even if he is playing LB.  It makes a ton more sense to think of it as a 3/1/3 instead of a 3/4.  Allowing him to more or less find the weak spot on a delayed blitz or attacking right off the back of another lineman would make a ton more sense.

Additionally it might make a lot of sense to see about replacing Penson on passing downs with a blitzing LB.  Penson is a remarkably competent run stuffer, but he is invisible in pass defense.  It looks like the team tried a lot of the backups in game one, but I saw a lot less substitution in game two.

Zach Orr, Julian Herron and Forlando Jackson all look like guys who could get to the QB on a blitz or delayed LB blitz.

Suggestion 10: Defensive backfield - get Robbie Gordon on the field at CB

There seems a great likelihood that none of UNT's CBs, once you get by Ford and Hill, are more than guys who can tackle a receiver after a catch.  D'Leon McCord may be the best of that lot, but UNT will still end up with DaWaylon Cook and and a CB getting beat for 20 and 30 yard gains.

Rice just wrote a manual on how to attack UNT's defense for the next 6 games with the talent utilized as it is currently.  It spells out how to wear down UNT with a running game and how to attack them with the pass.

As that is the case, why not take advantage of that conventional wisdom?  Why not start Robbie Gordon at CB?  He is the team's best ballhawk by far and looked ok at CB last season.  If they are going to throw at that CB spot anyway and UNT is going to need help from Cook, why not dramatically increase the odds of a turnover being generated?  UNT already has Cook to clean up (make the tackle) if the ball is caught.

At 0-2 it is time for some oversight

These are my suggestions.  Hopefully at least some of them might also seem logical to Coach Dodge.

A few months back, I wrote an article talking about the about how University of North Texas had an opportunity to be a University of Texas-like realignment player albeit at the non-Automatic Qualifier FBS level. 

Sadly, UNT chose to sit still rather than be bold.  They chose to retreat back into their groundhog burrow anticipating six more weeks of realignment nuclear winter.

Today, after the Western Athletic Conference's play for Brigham Young University short circuited, the WAC stands on the precipice of non-existence.

With the loss of Utah and BYU, the Mountain West Conference has likely lost all hope of securing a FBS AQ bid. 

The idea of securing that status was the lure and the glue that made a competitively and financially disadvantageous geographic outlier status in the MWC conference attractive to Texas Christian University.

The scenarios these changes have or will likely create all look ugly for UNT.

I am an admitted huge fan of UNT Athletic Director Rick Villarreal, who has singlehandedly orchestrated the upgrading of every athletic facility at UNT. 

I think he is among the best athletic directors in the FBS world, so it is hard for me to come out so strongly against the direction this athletic department is taking, but I have to in good conscience.

(Perhaps some blame can be put on the interim President and the Chancellor and Board of Regents...You could say the jury is still out on the new President. He has a good reume for UNT's needs, but he appears to have been hired in no small part due to his past as one of the principal founders of CUSA and that could be a big part of UNT'S CUSA myopia.  He has been quoted as saying UNT will listen to all conferences, but maybe the call is not his to make.  Do you hire a president with those kinds of ties and then empower him to take a lesser move that still makes sense for the university, but does not take advantage of those ties?  He may not be the decision maker in this process. He may just be a facilitator for one specific deal.   The decision could be entirely in the hands of the Chancellor and the Board of Regents. The Board of Regents and Chancellor have seen the last two UNT presidents resign on them without a job in hand.  I take that as a condemnation of a lack of vision by the Board and the Chancellor specifically, but that's largely based off editorials I have read in the papers.  I am not personally plugged into school politics at the Regents' level, but the attitude towards WAC inclusion does suggest short sightedness.)

Regardless of who is championing the “gloss over the WAC option” strategy, I believe it is a bad idea.  It doesn't really matter whose idea it is.

If realignment unfolds like I think it might and UNT ends up stuck in the Sun Belt, all of the principles at UNT will be taking heat over this.

Let's walk though some of the various realignment scenarios.

Scenario 1: WAC implosion

To most UNT fans who weren't thrilled by the idea of playing schools like San Jose State or Idaho, this scenario may seem like no big deal. 

With no insult meant to my fellow Mean Green fans, I think that view is a short-sighted one that looks myopically at the reality of the current WAC with no critical thought to the future implications of UNT's decisions today on the university's future options.

The longer the WAC is on the ropes, the greater the odds Hawaii plays their end game move and takes their chances as a football independent.  

(Perhaps their "queen's gambit" would save UH football.  If it doesn't, there would be no conference waiting to admit UH: no backup plan. If the independence plan can't keep UH in the black, there is a pretty good possibility anti-football budget hawks in the island may acquire the leverage to force UH to drop football.)

If UH leaves, the WAC would seem to fall in violation of the "5/6/7 rule" that governs which conferences get automatic berths in the NCAA basketball tournament (and therefore guaranteed annual access to at least some of that money). 

At that point they would not have the six core D-I members who have played together for 5 years to satisfy the hard part of the 5/6/7 rule. 

They would be one of only two Division I conferences that lack a tourney bid and the promise of a guaranteed annual NCAA basketball tourney payouts.

If it came to that, it is likely that not only would the WAC have trouble acquiring replacements from the FCS and I-AAA ranks, they would likely have difficulty keeping their members schools from defecting to FCS or I-AAA conferences to regain access to the tourney revenue.

In this scenario, it is entirely likely schools like San Jose State and New Mexico State might drop football entirely and schools like Idaho and Utah State might be effectively forced to downgrade to FCS over travel costs, non-competitiveness, and inability or difficulty scheduling enough games through the conference part of the season.

There would be no WAC, leaving UNT with the stark choices many, if not most, UNT fans have wanted for the Mean Green: stay in the Sun Belt or join CUSA.

Scenario 2:  TCU shows extreme loyalty and the MWC raids CUSA for the best possible argument for BCS Automatic Qualifier status.

To me, this is an extremely unlikely scenario, but let’s plays this out.

Let’s say that, as often suggested by MWC fans, that Houston and Tulsa, two of CUSA's strongest teams on the field, agree to take up the competitively disadvantageous position of distant geographic conference outliers in the MWC.

They agree to take their athletic budgets (which pale in comparison to TCU's) into a conference with huge travel costs where TV revenue is capped at a fraction of today's market value.

OK...I'll go along.

That still probably doesn't impact the MWC BCS math.  The MWC would still likely only hit two of the three BCS inclusion criteria and would need to be judged by a committee of seven BCS AQ conference representatives and five non-AQ conference representatives the conference's BCS worthiness. 

I track attendance.  I have compiled just under 10 years of numbers.  That resulting conference would not have any teams that finished in the top half of the FBS (i.e. between 1-60) in attendance over my tracking period.

But let’s keep going with the idea that there is some lure there that makes sense.

What does that leave in CUSA?  The CUSA East, UTEP, SMU, Tulane, and Rice.  History suggests SMU is not going to push for UNT's inclusion and may actually lead the way to keep the Mean Green out to protect their higher status in Dallas-Fort Worth.  Tulsa and Rice may be UNT's best advocates, and Tulsa would be gone.

With the eastern schools having a greater sway; it is far more likely that the conference moves east to satisfy ECU and Marshall's travel concerns with perhaps Temple and former basketball only member Charlotte (now adding FBS football) being added.

Realistically who has more CUSA votes, UNT or Charlotte?

Or maybe the CUSA schools split the difference and add two proven schools in Middle Tennessee and Troy that are towards the middle of the CUSA footprint?

In any scenario that leaves SMU in CUSA, losing two CUSA West schools hurts UNT's ability to garner votes more than it helps.

UNT stays in the Sun Belt.

Scenario 3: TCU finagles its way into the BCS

TCU has no shot of getting into the Big 12 while they have arguably the 5th to 7th largest collegiate fan plus alumni base in the Metroplex and the Big 12 has maybe 5 larger ones, but that doesn't mean TCU has no shot at BCS inclusion.

As I covered in my five part Bleacher Report series on the Big East and their best options to remain a BCS conference, adding TCU would help them a lot.  TCU may feel they are at the point where they would take a football-only membership in the Big East.  The Big East with their voting balance might go for that today.

The Big East could add TCU as a football only member and call it a day, killing all Big East dreams in CUSA and leaving UNT stuck in the Sun Belt.

Additionally, there is a slim shot TCU could find its way into the SEC if there is a massive SEC expansion (unlikely).

A large SEC expansion, the only chance I see for TCU to get in, seems unlikely, as the SEC has previously stated a desire to only expand if other power conferences expand beyond 12 and not before then.

Additionally, it would have so many downstream effects on other conferences that there really is no way to predict the fallout with any accuracy.

With that being said, while I do acknowledge it as a possibility, I won't cover it in this article.

Scenario 4: TCU rejoins its CUSA West brethren

The best financial and competitive situation for TCU barring a gift bid from a BCS AQ conference would be to rejoin their old CUSA West partners. 

If they join CUSA, the conference likely goes to 14 by adding an eastern member to satisfy Marshall, UCF, and ECU and try to retain a balance of power.  One can imagine a scenario where Temple is added as a football only member for now and Charlotte for all other sports until Charlotte is competing at the FBS level.

With TCU and SMU in CUSA, UNT would certainly not have the votes to move up.  They would stay in the Sun Belt.

If CUSA East is resistant to expansion, the CUSA West schools certainly want to be affiliated with a bell cow football program like TCU.  They are all in football states!  Football relevance is huge.

It is not difficult to imagine CUSA West breaking away to form a new Southwest Conference, adding TCU to satisfy the 5/6/7 rule and earn a basketball tourney berth.

From there, they would likely add the minimal number of schools possible (that would be one more for 8 for football) and then evaluate what they have. 

That school would probably be the University of New Mexico with its very strong basketball program, good stature, and reasonable travel costs.  (UNM would do a lot better in football in a conference which helps them recruit Texas athletes.)

That conference when it expands will be looking to cherry pick like the MWC did. 

They may consider a Boise State, but a Memphis or even at that point Larry Coker's UTSA might make more sense.  Non-football members St. Louis, Wichita State, and Creighton could be appealing adds too.

They aren't going to add UNT with TCU and SMU in the conference.

CUSA East is likely going to look at eastern schools to cut travel, Troy, MTSU, Temple, Charlotte...they won't be adding UNT.  It makes no sense to do so!

In both scenarios, UNT stays in the Sun Belt.

Scenario 5: With TCU gone, the WAC cherry picks the MWC...or vice versa.

Let’s say TCU and UNM split to start a new SWC. That leaves Air Force, Colorado State, and Wyoming isolated and SDSU, UNLV, Nevada, and Fresno isolated and Boise up north on its own.

That membership is not going to attract anyone of note.

Add on the fact that they have this crappy TV deal and few markets. They are screwed.

Now imagine Karl Benson calling up Boise State and saying, "I am empowered by my membership to offer you all membership in the WAC and amnesty of all WAC claims against any of your members.

"We will call it water under the bridge; blame it on Utah and BYU whipping us all up in frenzy for their benefit, and move on."

"Oh and plus ESPN is willing to pay every member school in this new WAC three times what the MWC TV deal pays you."

With UNM out, there are no schools left who absolutely do not want to be affiliated with WAC members. (Sure no one wants to travel to Hawaii or La Tech, but a I think you can probably talk ESPN to kick out a little more money to create a travel stipend for games against those two schools as part of the TV deal).

The Cal State system would be glad to have all three members in the same stable conference. Idaho would favor being in the same conference as Boise rather than Boise leaving them behind.

That is a 14-team conference with no drama, comparatively decent travel costs due to split divisions, and pretty decent money compared to what everyone has been making in both of those conferences.

Or maybe the MWC raids the middle four WAC schools, leaving Hawaii and La Tech to likely go the Indy route in football and join a pair of I-AAA conferences for their other sports.

Where does either scenario leave UNT?  In the Sun Belt.

Scenario 6: The WAC reloads with FCS schools.

The WAC has been in discussion with schools like UTSA, Texas State, Sacramento State, Portland State, and Montana.  Lately, there are signs the WAC may be preparing to add some or all of these schools.

The Big Sky recently added Cal Poly and UC-Davis. That appears to be a move likely in preparation of a raid from the WAC.

It has long been speculated that Montana and Montana State are a package deal.  To add Montana, an FBS conference may be required by the local legislature to bring Montana State with them. 

We may soon see if this is true and whether the WAC minds bringing Montana State with their fairly strong basketball support to land the strong Grizzlies football and basketball programs.

Lamar is headed by Billy Tubbs.  He has a lot of connections.  Lamar could work their way into the the mix if a 12th school is needed.

Lamar drew pretty well at the top level of football back in the day and would likely quickly re-emerge as a decent draw.  Lamar basketball is also pretty well supported and would help the WAC in that regard.

If The WAC hits 12 schools without UNT who would have UNT's back in the WAC?  Who would be a reliable vote for UNT in the WAC?  UTSA?  Texas State?  Not likely. 

UNT hasn't come to their support in finding a conference home and this scenario would give them a recruiting edge over UNT.  The WAC 6?  Again, not likely after UNT has let them flounder for years.

So where does that leave UNT?  Say it with me…"Stuck in the Sun Belt. ”

The realities of the Sun Belt

I can hear the Sun Belt defenders from here.  "That's fine.  The Sun Belt is improving by leaps and bounds!  We are already better than the WAC if you look at last year's final football ratings."

UH did have an off year last year as their star QB went down early in the season, but let’s ignore that.  I'll concede that statistical reality for now.

Where is the Sun Belt if the WAC dies?  Right back at the bottom of the FBS ranks.

And it could get worse quickly.

Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee have both courted MAC membership in the past.  Let's look at fairly likely instances. Let’s guess WKU keeps playing well in basketball and MTSU maintains its level of play in both money sports. 

Not a huge stretch.  What happens if the economy of Michigan finally drags down the worst draw in the FBS world, Eastern Michigan University, to a lower level of competition (DII?) or maybe the MAC loses Temple at some point?  It might make a lot of sense for the MAC to invite both schools.

Additionally, I think most people would agree that there is a fair likelihood that Troy or Middle Tennessee could get picked off if CUSA should feel a need to expand. 

Where is the Sun Belt without either or both of those two schools?  I'll tell you where...begging another ULM or FIU to move up.

Is that a conference UNT really wants to be tied to long term?

You can argue that UTSA and Texas State are moving up, but if you were in their shoes, would you choose the Sun Belt or a conference that has played in BCS bowls and has ESPN coverage? 

UNT staying in the Sun Belt has opened the opportunity for both schools to leapfrog UNT in the conference pecking order.

If you were FIU, Troy, FAU and the other small budget Sun Belt schools and you needed a replacement school or two for a Troy and /or MTSU defection, would you want another Texas outlier who will push up travel costs at all members' schools or would you want a Jacksonville State or Georgia Southern instead?

UNT is far likely to remain the only Texas school and a distant outlier in the Sun Belt.

Is that really what UNT wants?

The Sun Belt does not own a very bright future. What Sun Belt advocates overlook is the fact that Sun Belt athletic budgets are not going up very quickly at all and due to their non-compressed footprint, they do not have the fan bases to leverage the few good markets in which they are present.

This reality will have better Sun Belt programs "graduating" to better conferences and the Sun Belt perpetually having to rebuild from the FCS ranks.  The Troys and Middle Tennessees will constantly move up to be replaced by the less developed FIU's and WKU's.

Staying in the Sun Belt hurts UNT's chances of getting into CUSA or a rebuilt SWC

The Sun Belt is the bottom conference at the FBS level.  Historically, they are the least competitive conference.  They have the least established members.  Up until this summer, they undisputedly had the smallest athletic budgets.

Realignment generally is small and incremental.  CUSA is not going to start by looking at mid-level Sun Belt schools. 

They are going to start by looking at the next conference down in the pecking order.  At that point, it is possible that conference could be the MWC, the WAC, or maybe even the MAC.

The only way conferences drop their views lower is if there are candidates who offer something of huge merit that outweighs what candidates from better conferences could offer. 

Troy has their football as their argument. MTSU has football and solid basketball. UNT has competitive NIT-level basketball and a nice media market, but attendance in all sports lag.

When the ACC needed schools, they raided the Big East.   When the Big East needed schools, they raided CUSA.  When the MWC needed schools they raided their rival for a BCS AQ bid, the WAC.

There is a perception element to this. With votes required to get access to a new conference, it isn't a strong position to be 2-3 conferences lower.

There is also human nature.  When you've rejected something once, and you have more options next time around, sometimes it is easier to reject it again. 

It isn't a given that UNT will be seriously considered by CUSA next time around if we are still in the Sun Belt.

So has the total lack of vision by UNT's leadership locked UNT into a permanent home in the Sun Belt?

Has the inaction from the leadership at UNT not only guaranteed will UNT remain in the feeder FBS conference for all other FBS conferences, but also in in the least competitive position possible in that conference, that of a geographically distant conference outlier with no in-state competition?

Not yet, but one day soon, yes.

UNT doesn't have to be a douche of a conference member like Nevada-Reno to look at another conference.

TCU, Boise State, and UNT have all been fairly upfront about their intentions with their conference mates over the years.  That is admirable.

UNT is in a non-competitive spot as a distant conference outlier.  They aren't a power in the Sun Belt.  The Sun Belt losing UNT is not like the WAC losing Boise State. 

With Southern Alabama adding football, UNT and ULL could leave and the Sun Belt would have a member mix with smaller travel costs, and scheduling would be improved with what would become a 9 for football/10 for basketball setup.

The difference between schools like UNT and schools like TCU and Boise State is that each time the latter two were presented with an opportunity to climb the conference ladder, they took it.  Each time they did, they were rewarded with greater exposure and better recruits.

UNT turned down the WAC the first time in a move that I have suggested in the past was defensible as a cost-savings move by a school with what was at the time a small budget, but the more I think about it the less defensible it becomes. 

If UNT had announced that they had talks with CUSA and that the WAC was considering adding them, but both conferences had concerns about Fouts Field and a lack of an appropriate athletic budget, doesn't it seem a lot more likely that the stadium approval could have been secured years ago?

Admittedly, it is a ton of speculation, but shouldn't leveraging the possibility of a new home even been tried?

Today, the students have provided a new stadium and a permanent athletic fee to help UNT get into a better conference.  Isn't it a betrayal of that trust not to even try? 

I am sure they didn’t approve the stadium so they could continue playing a ULM or FIU game that usually doesn’t draw 17,000.

There is still time to rectify this total blunder of ignoring the potential of the WAC before it cripples UNT sports long term.

What UNT could realistically pull off with the WAC

UNT may have more leverage with the WAC than it has ever had.  Today, if UNT agreed to join the WAC (on terms that protected UNT's future),  UNT could likely land a load of concessions that would put it in much better shape today and in the future than what the Sun Belt would offer.

Schools like ULL, UTSA, and Texas State are all effectively waiting on UNT.  In realignment terms, they are all "motivated" schools.

University of Louisiana- Lafayette doesn't want to be in the same conference as the smaller UL-Monroe.  ULL had made a play to take the previously unused but potentially powerful "University of Louisiana" brand name to mark the maturation of their university as a statewide and national university of note. 

ULM stepped in at the last moment and forced ULL to effectively share the brand, forcing ULL go to the nationally less impressive name.  There is some bad blood there.

ULL and would love to be in the same conference as the state's No. 3 school Louisiana Tech, but financially it is a very hard time economically in the state. 

The governor who has dreams of a career in national politics has tried to make a point about public spending during a recession, leading to a second pounding on budgets at all Louisiana public universities (even leading one to downgrade from the D1 ranks), hurting them far more than universities in other states.

ULL would probably be more than OK with joining the WAC, but they simply can't afford it today.  If UNT joined the WAC, travel would be a little better for ULL. 

If the WAC pulled UTSA and Texas State, it would be better still.  If the WAC split to two 2-team divisions, WAC travel costs could be well within ULL's budget.

UTSA and Texas State know there is no guarantee the Sun Belt will feel a need to add more Texas geographic outliers. 

The two Texas enrollment giants view the WAC with its ESPN connections as a higher profile home anyway.  They would love to join the WAC tomorrow, but it appears there is no offer on the table. 

I think there is a thought within the WAC, likely being pushed by UH, of not degrading the WAC to add FCS schools immediately when there is still a possibility the MWC might lose TCU and become quite susceptible to a raid.

In that scenario, the WAC doesn't need UTSA and Texas State.

For UTSA and Texas State, they may need UNT (and ULL) to join to get the WAC to admit the two upgrading enrollment giants.

That would give the WAC 10 all-sports members.  From there adding 2 non-football members to allow sensible cost divisional play in all sports but football would make some financial sense.  There is no shortage of universities that might be interested.

In travel terms, the best scenario for all parties is WAC with a minimum of 12 all-sports members. 

A 12 team WAC with a SW division with UNT, ULL, La Tech, NMSU, and two of the following (Arkansas State, UTSA, or Texas State) puts UNT in the much better situation than their current Sun Belt home.

In the Sun Belt today, they are in a non-football division with ULL, ULM, Arkansas State, Denver, and ULAR.  In football, they have to take a trip to Florida every year as 1 of 9 current football members. 

Unless the Sun Belt expands, they will soon have fewer than 12 members so division play will stop and travel savings will vanish.  There is little to suggest the Sun Belt will add FCS upgrades proactively.

In competitive terms it is far better to be in the center of the footprint rather than UNT’s current weak position of being a conference outlier in what most consider being the weakest FBS conference.

UNT can secure the WAC's future, so what should UNT demand in return?

Here are my thoughts:

1) An ironclad solidarity agreement for basketball at minimum with no wiggle room. All current WAC teams would make a five-year commitment to UNT not to leave the conference as a basketball member. 

This agreement would not be there to prevent schools from leaving for better conferences in all the other sports, something that I think there is enough legal precedence out there of failed conference loyalty pacts that it would be difficult to collect.

It would be in place to ensure the retainment of the conference's automatic basketball tourney bid, the key element that allows conferences to rebuild their memberships. 

It would be there to spell out the potential lost revenue that would be incurred if a tournament bid was lost and the difficulty the conference would have rebuilding.

It would have the member schools all agreeing that keeping their basketball programs in the conference for the period is a reasonable demand and that leaving the conference prior to that period would be knowingly damaging the conference's ability to generate revenue and as such, would require them to pay out damages to allow the remaining schools to have a shot to rebuild their conference. 

In some ways, I am thinking of it being cast as more of a personal services contract to UNT. 

If one of the WAC 6 took their basketball programs out of the conference in the 5 year window, the member schools would owe UNT specifically $10 Million. 

(I think if a team left after UNT and ULL joined, UNT could build the agreement so the two universities split the first $10 Million  If a second team left, the agreement could have UNT putting the next $10 Million into a fund that UNT and the others could split over years to mirror a tournament payout. This would allow the schools to play together until they are back in good standing for a tournament bid.).

There would not be point in that time period when these contracts would be voided.  After all, the WAC school's athletic programs are already at risk.  UNT's is not.

UNT would be taking on risk to join the WAC and guarantee those school's futures by agreeing to be the fulcrum for WAC expansion. 

It makes sense UNT should be guaranteed.  If the WAC cannot do anything to show they will have a basketball automatic bid three years from now, what is the point of even talking to UNT?

2) A commitment from the WAC to offer memberships to ULL, UTSA, Texas State, and at least 2 other schools and secure 12 members by 2012 to allow at minimum split divisional play in all sports beyond football and a minimum of 12 FBS playing schools to allow split division play by 2016. 

The point of adding UNT is to open the door to expansion without it being exclusively deemed a Sun Belt-style FCS barrel scraping expansion by a conference with one foot in the grave.

(ULM and FIU have progressed some, but at the time most would consider those additions by the Sun Belt a barrel scraping of schools unprepared to move up.)

Once a conference has over 8 members, expansion is viewed as by choice, not by desperation.

3) For two years, the conference would agree to split a portion of ULL's travel costs over a certain threshold in sports where the conference does not participate in split division play. (I see this as a "cost of doing business" to allow ULL the political cover to join in today's economic conditions in Louisiana.)

4) The WAC secures UNT an annual football game in a multi-year home and home series against BYU.  The WAC can still do a lot to help BYU's independence effort and BYU will almost certainly have to work with the WAC along those lines.  The WAC can offer enough value to BYU to get BYU to agree to play a series against UNT. 

Seeing BYU come off TCU's schedule and become a biannual sellout on UNT's schedule would dramatically raise the exposure of UNT football in the metroplex. UNT's only good home draws OOC in the last few years have been games against Army.

Rice should be a good draw this year and Baylor was a good draw years ago, but no local or Texas schools feel any real need to play UNT.  Putting a school the caliber of BYU on the schedule would be huge.

Either a BYU series or a better division with Texas schools and higher-profile rivals alone would make the move to the WAC worthwhile for UNT.

Both would make it a slam dunk for the Mean Green. For the WAC, it would be another cost of business to land a key school that has administrators, alumni, boosters, and fans that have huge doubts about the WAC's future.

5) Allow UNT an exit provision without fees if CUSA comes calling.  There is a large contingent of UNT fans, alumni, and boosters who will not sign off on anything if it doesn't allow a CUSA escape clause. 

For the WAC, allowing UNT such a clause is irrelevant.  They need UNT today. Tomorrow, they could likely afford to lose the Mean Green to CUSA.

The important aspect of the 5/6/7 rule is keeping the WAC 6 playing basketball together, which adding UNT today helps ensure.

ULL, UTSA, Texas State or pretty much any of the other candidates mentioned for WAC inclusion could be core DI team seven if UNT leaves in a few years.  The exit fee payout clause could then roll over to the next school that joined the WAC (ULL?).

Move up or pay the price

When you refuse to move up the conference pecking order, you open the door for other schools to pass you.  UTSA and Texas State appear to be on the WAC radar. 

Lamar is also looking to move up and could be on the WAC radar if the WAC needs another school.  That could put all three upgrading Texas schools in a conference with better TV than the Sun Belt.

UNT is currently 10th in the state in recruiting among the 10 FBS schools most years.  This could very possibly have UNT annually finishing 13th. 

Talent is 80% of the equation at the FBS level.  If you don't have talent, you will have a hard time winning. 

If you don't win, you will have a hard time filling your stadium.  If you don't fill your facilities, you will have hard time impressing higher level conferences.

The only way to assure UNT doesn't fall behind those three schools is to have UNT lead the way for UTSA and Texas State into the WAC.

The idea that the WAC will trail behind the Sun Belt, if they add FCS schools is not an idea that holds a lot of water. 

It looks like UTSA, Texas State, and Montana are serious candidates.  UTSA and Texas State have a large mostly untapped region in central and south Texas to feed their recruiting and will have 2 of the largest athletic budgets in the WAC. 

UTSA is headed by Larry Coker, a coach who has won a BCS title in this decade.  Texas State is an annual FCS playoff program. 

Montana is an FCS power with several national titles at that level.  Additionally Montana is close enough to the Dakotas to be able to cherry pick the best talents that makes those four schools some of the most dangerous at the FCS level. 

It is not difficult to imagine Montana being a better school than Wyoming or even Nevada from Day One at the FBS level. Their program is that solid and well known in the region.

It is not out of the question that all three schools could join Hawaii and La Tech in sharing Boise State's old position as ESPN's new TV sweetheart.

College football is a dynamic system where schools in conferences work against each other for resources.   

Changes here or there can change the entire equation. UNT's leadership and it's fans are being short sighted assuming that they can hold their position and not lose ground.

Here's hoping the leadership at UNT re-evaluates.

Welcome to the second of a series of weekly articles that would pose the big question The University of North Texas faces for each of their upcoming games.

With the loss of CB Stephen Ford, I thought perhaps the question should be how will UNT control the scheme and speed of Rice, but I think there is actually a much bigger issue this week.

Will UNT play like a team that is executing a plan to win, or will they once more play like a team that is playing to compete with only vague hopes of winning?

The former demands all players play with constant focus.  The latter is what UNT has done for years, responding to offensive success or turnovers with defensive sleepwalking only to find at the end of the game they are a few points short.

Rice

After last season's catastrophe Rice was in the market for a new offensive coordinator.  They re-hired a guy I think is one of the next great college head coaches in former local high school coach and former Rice and Kansas receivers coach David Beatty.

Against UT's top notch defense, Rice scored 17 points.  They have a burner at WR in Donte Moore who could be a real problem for UNT.  He is not a proven dominant player, but UNT doesn't have anyone left at CB with that kind of speed.

After Ford went down, I thought it might have made sense to play Ira Smith at CB opposite Hill to handle fast receivers, possibly slot Robbie Gordon back into the CB rotation, and go with a three headed monster of Will Wright, John Shorter, and Ryan Downing at Smith's safety slot.  I think our safety depth is way too talented to sit anyway.

I think long term that makes sense, but really as highly as I think of Beatty, his ability to develop receivers, and his intricate knowledge of both the Tom Herman offense that hung 77 points on UNT last time these schools played and the potent Mangino Kansas offense (with it's Todd Dodge influences),  the big question in this game is in UNT's heads.

This week should be a big week in terms of UNT learning how to win if UNT hopes to do well this year.

UNT has to win four or five of the next seven games.  The preseason is over.  It is time to play to win.

Rice may have stunk last year, but they were 10-3 in 2008.  It is not like at UNT where no one on the roster has won at the FBS level.  Rice underproduced in 2009 but were a CUSA power in 2008.

If UNT expects this to be a matchup of near peers that UNT will win strictly on the merit of slightly greater depth, the odds are they will lose.

Rice has experience in knowing how to win.  They know how to emotionally manage success and rough spots in games and still end up on the right side of the scoreboard at the game's end.  That is the big edge they have over UNT.

If UNT takes a lead and the Mean Green defense reverts to their old habits and takes a series off, Rice will come back on the Mean Green and keep the game within reach for the Owls.

If UNT's offense turns the ball over and UNT's defense doesn't control that emotional swing by immediately stuffing the Rice offense, it will be a huge swing that could throw the game to the Owls.

And none of this even takes into account that the UNT offense may have some issues.  While it was great to see them control the clock on Clemson and roll up big yards with an extremely well designed and implemented game plan, the Mean Green only scored 10 points.  When you get into the red zone precision is very important.

Some local reporters think that was strictly due to a talent differential.  If that was the case how did Jacksonville State score so many points on Ole Miss?

More to the point how did Beatty coax 17 points out of his unit versus UT's dominant defense?  Rice could be a little better at red zone play than UNT at this point.

Precision, patience at QB, and tight execution is required for a team to excel in the red zone.  Do we have that yet in the early days of the Mike Canales era?

The assumption is this will be track meet game.  It might not be.  If UNT allows Rice to score in the 30's or even the high 20's, there may be a problem.  We really haven't seen enough of the UNT Canales offense in the red zone to assume they excel there.

UNT needs to start learning to put away a team with peer level talent this week.  It is very important for the future. The defense needs to approach every series and every play with the edge that they show from time to time. 

I think they need to play the game with one of their many goals being the idea of pitching a shutout. At this point in the development of the defense it should be in the back of the team's head that a shutout is a realistic goal against every peer talent level team.  Setting goals like keeping an opponent under 10 points or 17 points would be good secondary weekly goals as well, but the idea that a shutout is possible should be introduced to the defense's world view. That should start this week.  The talent is there that being content to play track meet games should no longer be acceptable.

Now obviously you cannot pitch a shutout if you are mentally and emotionally taking series off.  Having that as a team goal requires a commitment among the defensive players to each other to show up on every play.  That is really what needs to be secured.

The defense needs to take the next step and become a factor in the games.

Teams that generally win two of the three areas (offense, defense, and special teams) usually win.  UNT needs to play with the play to play consistency of effort and focus that winning teams exhibit to win the game on both sides of the ball and notch their first win.

It's time for this year's pre-season preview.

Let me start with a disclaimer, mostly the same disclaimer I used last year: 

"I am a struggling writer/editorialist, not a news reporter, so the opinions expressed here are my own combined with data mined from other sites to form a handy season guide.

This contains a lot of supporting information read in reports from such sites as scout.com, rivals.com, the Denton Record-Chronicle, UNT.edu, and other sites, but are my own views and predictions.

I do want to say that large chunks of the information from which I pulled together the likely depth chart and other information were initially reported by Brett Vito, the reporter who covers the Mean Green for the Record-Chronicle.

He is quite simply the best source for information on the Mean Green out there and the Record-Chronicle is the best source for Mean Green News. The stats, schedule, and player dimensions are pulled from the UNT.edu athletics pages."

OK, Let's go.

POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN

OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK: Once more UNT will have a new starter at quarterback. Riley Dodge, last year's starting QB, does not have the arm strength or the durability presently to be counted on to run the UNT spread offense for a full season in this make or break year for the coaching staff.

In the spring, it was apparent Riley was having issues with injuries again.  His arm was sore and tired, and the resulting passes were not looking good. Head Coach Todd Dodge made the emotional decision to bench his son and go in a different direction to give his staff, the players, and the team their best shot to succeed.

Last year's backup 6'4" senior Nathan Tune held off the challenge from sophomore Derek Thompson over the summer and the fall to win the starting job. By all reports Tune worked diligently this off-season, adding 20 Lbs of good weight to his frame.  Ultimately Coach Dodge reported that hard work played a big role in earning the senior the starting nod.

Last season, Tune was the team's sacrificial lamb, starting against the two toughest defenses on the schedule, Troy and the eventual National Champions, Alabama.  Tune did very well last year although victories eluded him.  He threw two potential game winning passes vs. Ohio that were dropped.  He threw a TD vs. Alabama with no INTs and played well almost every time Riley Dodge went out last year.

Tune is, to my view, a cerebral and conservative game manager type of QB. He can progress through reads fairly well. He doesn't make an abundance of mistakes.  He does not drop the ball and rarely throws interceptions. He is a little robotic, but looks like a very solid starter.  He is not the instinctive elusive runner that Riley Dodge was, but Tune is very underrated as a runner.  He has decent speed for a QB and is a competent straight line runner.  Tune has a great arm and is one of the rare quarterbacks with the arm strength to throw a ball 50+ yards down the field with accuracy.  His teammates seem to like and respect him.  He can make all of the throws, a trait I think played a big role in him winning the starting job.

The backup QB will be sophomore Derek Thompson. I see him as a gunslinger.  Thompson is one of those guys who doesn't know he is a young kid who is supposed to be struggling.  He appears to be UNT's QB of the future.  His build and his running style reminds me of Tim Tebow, but that is based off films of him running against high school defenses. I have not seen enough of him running against hitting collegiate defenses to say whether that aspect of his game will translate to the college level.  Thompson is a big confident kid with a pretty good arm.  He is clockwork on midrange passes over the middle.  The balls get there quickly and on target. As these passes are generally hitting WR's on post plays in full stride and we have great WR talent, he threw a lot of TD passes over the off-season.  I thought that was his comfort zone. To me, he struggled a little throwing the other passes. I worried what would happen if he went up against an experienced zone defense.  I'd love to see the coaching staff use this guy as the sacrificial lamb like they did Tune last year.  Where I think the warts on his game would be exposed as an everyday starter today,  he could likely do pretty well as a suprise starter for a week.  I'd love to see him start the Troy game.  Where a guy like Tune won't lose you a game, this kid is just uppity enough and his game is well suited to win you a game you have no business winning against an unprepared opponent.  I also think he'd make a great short yardage threat/designated QB sneak guy, but I don't anticipate him being utilized in that fashion.  This coaching staff headed by two former college QBs is very sensitive about avoiding QB controversies.

Riley Dodge will be a utility/changeup QB this year. I think that is a good role for him.  Dodge is still a very accurate and competent short passer and an instinctive runner.  At Southlake apparently they once employed the changeup QB in their offense giving that QB a series or so in each half.  If I have the story right that QB was Riley Dodge.  I would not be surprised to see the same thing this year at UNT.  I am expecting Dodge to take about 8-10 snaps a game at QB this year.  I think that is about right.  With the lack of zip on his midrange passes and the lack of arm on his deep passes I think he was exposed at times last season.  This year, he can come in and force the defense in and then UNT can trot out Tune and send someone deep.

The third string QB is Chase Baine. He plays a lot like Riley Dodge. I do not anticipate him playing, but he could be surprisingly solid if he should be pressed into service.
Projection: B+

RUNNING BACK: Even with the graduation of Cam Montgomery and the defection of Jeremi Mathis, UNT has a load of talent in the backfield.

Lance Dunbar emerged midway through the season to become the most feared big play back in the Sun Belt.  Dunbar is not the biggest back at about 205 Lbs and not the fastest either. Every runner succeeds due to certain attributes they possess.  Dunbar's attributes fit extremely well with the offense UNT ran last season. Dunbar is at full speed very quickly.  He has great vision as a runner and doesn't waste a lot of movement or steps.  He will easily and naturally cut back away from traffic. He finds his seams quickly and commits to them getting up field quickly. I am a little worried that Dunbar, like Montgomery last season, may find the second time through a lot more difficult.  Last year, in the old offense, Dunbar was facing defenses that usually had all of their defensive backs spread out covering UNT's 4 receivers.  Dunbar often only had a linebacker to beat and then he could outrun defensive backs who had 10 to 15 yards to make up.  He effectively only had two layers to beat. This year with a base set that features 3 WRs and a tight end, there may be a safety better placed in the middle of the field creating a third layer, turning those 70 yard TDs into 15-20 yard gains. I am also concerned about Dunbar's ability to finish runs. Last year a lot of the better defenses would bottle him up for 2 yard gains and force UNT away from the run.   If Dunbar can stretch those 2 yard gains into 3& 4 yard gains he would be able to dictate the play calling, not the defenses. I don't know how much improvement I see in that regard, and I think he may lose some carries to his backups over that.  Dunbar will still be effective, but I suspect last year will appear to be a lightning in a bottle. (I Hope I am wrong.)

Hamilton and freshman Brandin Byrd are similar in that they are smaller backs too, but they may actually be faster and appear to be more physical runners in terms of finishing their runs.

Look for all of the backs to be more involved in the passing game this year.

Projection: A-

WIDE RECEIVER: This is the best collection of receiver talent in the Sun Belt. Will it produce to it's talent?  Probably not. Sometimes, when you have too much talent, players play on edge fearing the hook.  Dodge would be smart to redshirt a few of these guys.

Jamaal Jackson, a second team all-Sun Belt player, is back. He is an elusive slot receiver type with 4.4 speed.  I didn't see a great deal of improvement from him over the off-season and he got injured (ligament damage in his hand) which may have him out to the start of the year. Maybe when the games start, he will show more with big guns throwing the ball deep at him.  I am going to say something very unpopular, but I think he is much more valuable to the team as a kick returner than he offers as a wide receiver.  I don't think he is all that effective in the red zone and although he has great speed, he hasn't really got the knack for being a big play receiver.  His speed allows him to get open. He has good, but not great hands.  He will start the season as a starter, but I would not be surprised if his role lessens as the year progresses.

Darius Carey is a guy I had suggested was likely to emerge as the team's #1 receiver after the last spring scrimmage. The former high school QB turned his understanding of the game and very good and reliable hands into a starting job last season.  He ran a 4.5 coming out of high school and made a lot of plays last year in earning third team all-sun belt accolades. He gets open, makes the catch, and turns north/south after the catch.  In many of last seasons games he appeared to be UNT's best receiver. He looked bigger and more physical in the spring.  He appears to be evolving into a possession #1 receiver.  He broke his hand helping his mother move in the fall and really hurt his ownership of a starting job.  I think he will probably reclaim a starting job fairly soon, but I no longer feel firmly convinced he will lead the team in receptions.

Troy Stradford has BCS, if not NFL prospect level talent.  The question everyone asks is can he become that caliber of player? Critics question his hands, but the issue is really his concentration.  He is capable of making a somewhat difficult catch, but will on occasion drop the easy one.  Where he shines is is ability to get open.  He will be a nightmare for opponents to cover.  He combines 4.41 speed with good size and a play maker's attitude.  He will be in the starting lineup because the coaching staff simply cannot afford not to start him.

Chris Bynes has been a bit of a surprise coming in from the JUCO ranks.  The coaching staff said they liked him on signing day, but I don't think anyone knew he would be as productive as he is.  He has great hands and a knack for making plays.  He adjusts well to poorly thrown balls and just makes plays for his quarterback.  He looks like to start in week one and may continue to start as the other starters return.  I would not be surprised to see him take a lot of Carey's playing time early and Jackson's playing time late.

Benny Jones.  The hit of spring 2009 before falling off the radar. He made a big impression on the coaching staff and apparently played his way into the rotation until injuries hit again.  He hasn't played much since. This is a kid with good speed.  He is also light as a feather and can't seem to stay healthy.

B.J. Lewis.  I am disappointed that injuries hit this kid this off-season. He was a former go to guy in high school with the attributes you'd want at WR. He has good height, size, and speed. He seems like a guy who could be a solid deep threat and a threat in the corner of the end zones. He had a Jeckle and Hyde game in the final spring scrimmage and I had hoped he would redeem himself over the summer and fall, but the injury has cost him an opportunity to improve his standing. I like this kid because he was a go to guy in high school and he appears to play with the expectation of being a one in college.  It is entirely speculation, but I suspect he may need a bit of a wake up call.  He has very good speed, good size, and good hands.  He has enough talent to be great at this level, but is he doing the little things required to be great?  This is a guy who should want to be the best route runner on the team.  This is a guy who shouldn't blow plays or lose focus and drop balls. For this kid to earn PT on the loaded roster out here, he has to be totally reliable. He has to run the right plays reliably, he has to run great routes that he really sells, he has to catch and hold on to the ball --- really he has to earn the trust of the coaching staff.  Other receivers are doing it more than he is at this point.  I want this kid to be great, but he may be letting his collegiate career pass him by a little.

Alex Lott may be the most underrated receiver on the roster. He is consistently productive and reliable.  He doesn't have great attributes - he is short with good but not great speed - but he is really consistent.  As he isn't as talented as some of these guys he is not likely to win a starting job, but UNT fans can count on him to deliver when he is in the slot.  Last year he had some issues with taunting on the field.  Hopefully he has grown up in that regard.

Willie Taylor is a bit of a hit or miss player.  He will make a big play one minute and a bad play the next.  He will drop a pass and has shown a bit of a perchant for serving up balls for easy interceptions.  With all the injuries he has had extended  periods to play and make his argument for playing time in front of the coaching staff.  I think Taylor will be a very good player eventually, but I think the upside of playing him today does not outweigh the downside.  This team has not established its identity yet and putting a player on the field who causes interceptions should be the last thing a staff should want to do.  I personally would redshirt him.

Michael Outlaw is back.  He has a bad rap from last year, but lets be fair — he was totally misused last year.  He is a receiver who will run over the middle and take the tough hit and catch the ball.  Last year the team used him as a deep threat and had him continuously trying to adjust to Riley Dodge's underthrown looping bombs.  He was absolutely horrible in that role and dropped a lot of passes and allowed many more to be picked off.  I personally believe it got into his head a bit.  What I do like about Outlaw is that he is a game competitor.  Most of the time he would follow up a drop with a tough nosed catch over the middle. He has missed some time and appears to have fallen out of the starting rotation for now.  I think this is a guy who needs a little more time to distance himself from last season.  It is not likely to happen, but I'd like to see him redshirted and see him start next year catching passes from Thompson. I think they would go together like peas and carrots.

Riley Dodge is another guy who hasn't really mastered out the WR position.  I am hesitant to be too negative about him because I love the fact that he took the position change like a man, like the team leader he is.  In spite of the fact the I don't like some of the things I see from him at wide receiver, I love him as a Mean Green Player and will cheer my ass off for him every time he touches the ball.  Riley Dodge is not likely to be a consistent chain moving wide receiver this year.  As a pass catcher, he is not that fast or elusive.  Like Taylor he will pop a ball up in the air where it can be intercepted. When he does catch the ball he just doesn't seem that dangerous.  Do you remember when the Aikman Dallas Cowboys would have a 3rd and 8 and hit FB "Moose" Johnson for 7 yards?  That is the impression I get of Riley Dodge as a receiver. I don't see him as a deep threat or a red zone threat. I think he needs a year or two of development. I think the staff loves and respects the kid, I just hope they don't feed him too much PT at WR out of loyalty and respect.

Breece Johnson is a guy who has made a lot of plays in practice but really hasn't seen much time on the field.  I would like to see the coaching staff try him out in end zone situations this year, but that appears it may not be in the cards with the volume of skilled receivers on the roster.

Brandon Chancellor - the other freshman from Copperas Cove - looked like a natural in fall practices.  He doesn't have great timed speed from what I could locate, but he appears to be much faster on the field.  He has had knack great open field runners have to get away from people for big runs and has somewhat polished receiving skills.  He seemed to quickly earn some trust with the coaching staff. Dodge mentioned redshirting him.  If he doesn't he might be the 5th receiver on this team or so, which is quite an accomplishment this far in his career on a roster with this much talent. Casey Schutza is another freshman receiver that looks pretty good. UNT landed two very nice prospects.

This should be the deepest WR corps in the Sun Belt.  That said, will anyone emerge as a true number one receiver who can consistently move the chains in pressure situations?
Projection: B+

Utility Back/TIGHT END:

Micah Mosley was a front runner for the utility back role before breaking his foot. Now it looks like Greg Brown will own the "starting" utility back slot with JUCO transfer Jamize Olawale backing him up. Brown seems likely to be destined for a life of blocking. Olawale may become a fan favorite in short order.  As I mentioned in the signing day review he seems to be a receiving TE prospect with breakaway speed.  He has made a number of big plays since arriving and looks to be a real threat in the open field.

Draylen Ross looked destined to start at the tight end spot until Conor Gilmartin-Donohue transferred in.  Gilmartin-Donohue sounds like something of a mercenary. As I understand it the New Yorker is transferring in for the fall semester only. He is a polished player who does everything you want a TE to do, at a pretty solid level.  The coaching staff seems to have a lot of confidence in him.  Ross is a great physical specimen who is finally back at the spot where he started a couple of games as a freshman. It is impossible for me to say much conclusively about him at this point.  He should be great double teaming a DE, but the fact he does not appear destined to start could indicate he has trouble dealing with linebackers.  Most seem to agree he has solid hands for the position, but do the coaches see him as a receiving threat?

I think the production could surprise some folks, but it seems like the coaching staff wants to use these guys in more situational roles, so don't expect anyone to emerge statistically.  Still they look pretty good.

Projection: B-

OFFENSIVE LINE: This is a veteran offensive line returning 4 starters from last season. Last year the team gave up only 13 sacks on 413 pass attempts and powered a running game that gained 5.3 yards per carry.  On the negative side they were stopped in short yardage situations too often. Along those lines it is pretty exciting that most of the players are back this year and 5-10 Lbs heavier - about what you would target for a good weightlifting off-season.  On the flip side, UNT lost their offensive line coach to Tulsa and had to promote his assistant to the job on short notice, so there is a chance that UNT could see breakdowns occasionally in the pass blocking.

Strongside tackle Esteban Santiago brings aggression to the line.  He set the tone for the entire line last year with his fire and most projected he would be one of the five best linemen in the Sun Belt this year.  Sadly he showed up this fall 30 lbs over his playing weight last year.  He has been conditioning, but it could be an issue early.  Game one opponent Clemson has a DE who is supposed to be a first round talent.

Senior Victor Gill is a skilled, experienced, reliable blindside pass protector who should give Tune a lot of confidence in the pocket.

J.J. Johnson is a smart, solid returning center.

Former center Kevin Drake was OK last year at guard coming back from injury.  One hopes he takes his game up a notch this year having a full year at the spot under his belt.

The fifth starter will be junior Matt Tomlinson.    He has good size at 6-5/300 lbs and moves fairly well. Jeremy Bean was competing with Tomlinson for the open guard spot, but ended up getting a lot of reps at Tackle in the fall - likely in case Santiago was not ready to go.  He provides good insurance at both spots.  He is a pretty good player, with sufficient athleticism to succeed at both spots.

The team has a lot of good depth in guys like Fortenberry, Leppo, and Bean, and Franklin.  None of them wow you, but all look like very competent backups who can hold their own in the Sun Belt.

The starting lineup should be very good if Santiago rounds into shape quickly.  It will be interesting to see how the team does in short yardage situations this year and if there is a drop off in pass blocking. I think they will probably do pretty well, especially if seniors Santiago and Drake play to their talent level.

Projection: B+

DEFENSIVE LINE:  For once UNT has a lot of talent on the DL.

Senior Shavod Atkinson was the second best defensive lineman on the team last year behind Eddrick Gilmore who graduated. Last year Atkinson was a 309 LB NT-type run stuffer.  As a pass rusher he flashed moments of dominance collapsing the pocket, but he lacked the last step to finish.  This year Atkinson showed up to camp at a svelte 284 Lbs, apparently with the goal of finishing those plays. It will be interesting to see what becomes of this.  My impression last year was that Atkinson lacked the agility to finish plays.  Perhaps 25 lbs lighter after an off-season of hard work he will have that agility.  It does seem fairly likely that he will not need quite as many breaks. On the negative side it is always a bit risky when you fundamentally change your body and you were a pretty good player before.  With less weight his center of gravity will be higher.  Will he keep his pads a little lower to compensate?

Fellow senior DT Kelvin Jackson actually added a pound to his weight over the off-season, but by all accounts he is in much better condition this year. I thought Jackson actually flashed a better upside than Atkinson, but he just wasn't in good enough shape to stay on the field. He is a big run stuffer who may not show as much power as Atkinson, but I thought he showed better agility as a pass rusher.  That said, the players have such different skillsets and we don't know if those skills will lend themselves to effective play.  As a Mean Green fan,it will be neat to see them on the field together for big chunks of the game this year.  (Fingers crossed.)

Sophomore Tevinn Cantly's career is a roller coaster ride.  Last spring he dropped down to 285 and looked good at DE.  By the fall the coaching staff had apparently lost confidence in his ability to handle playing in space.  By mid-season he was moved back to DT.  He emerged as a player capable of delivering solid starting Sun Belt caliber DT play. Then this spring they tried to work him at DE again.  This fall he was up to 336 LBs when he reported and he was again back at DT.  He played some in the fall and looked OK, but he started having knee issues. I suspect Cantly's knees will do in his career if he can't keep his weight under a reasonable weight, say 300-310. I also think there is a lot of logic to just leaving this guy at DT.

Senior Jesse Desoto could surprise in spot minutes, but seems too small for regular play. He is lighter this year too. He appears a pretty marginal talent and was exposed as a heavy minute player in the past, but in previous years it seemed to me like he did surprisingly well as a pass rusher in scrimmages.  Maybe this new weight will work for him.

Sophomore DT Kyle White reportedly came in this fall at 290 down from 309.  They are saying good things about him - that he will play, but he isn't even running second string at DT with DE's in the mix.

DEs John Webber and Brandon McCoy are slotted as the team's backup DTs.  In most defenses they would be strongside DEs.  They are undersized as DTs.  Webber, a senior,  showed some pass rushing ability in the scrimmages and was a very effective DE at the JUCO level and a very highly graded prospect.  McCoy is a military guy who showed up on campus and impressed the coaching staff.

At the starting DE spots it appears UNT will go with Sophomores KC Obi and Brandon Akpunku.

Akpunku was listed at 225 Lbs last year, but it was reported the weight melted off him a bit as the season progressed.  Obi was listed at 214.  He eventually took the weakside starting DE job from Akpunku and was a big part of the defense's improvement vs. the run in the season's second half.

Today both players are listed at a fairly unbelievable 240 lbs.

Obi is due to start at the strong side DE.  He plays with good technique and speed.  Last year he could chase down a QB, but he really didn't have any strength to prevent tackles from taking him around QBs.  I don't think that has changed too much over one off-season in terms of a pass rusher.  He needs a good push up the middle to flush the QB into him.  If Atkinson and Jackson can provide that, he may record a few sacks.  He also will likely have some trouble vs. the run.  Obi does play good technique and consistently slide off his blocker to chase a runner down from behind, but he will be giving up 50-70 Lbs a game to mostly equally competent technicians at OT.

Akpunku is a mixed bag.  He seized a starting job last year based almost entirely on his pass rushing, fierceness and determination, even though he was very much undersized and inexperienced at the position. He is really a top notch pass rushing 3-4 OLB.  Unlike Obi, Akpunku’s technique as a down lineman is not that consistent.  He was a very good pass rusher for the first half of last season, but appeared to go into a funk as a pass rusher when Obi took his starting job. Akpunku has worked hard to get stronger over the off-season and is such a fiery player and a potential leader that the coaching staff may just decide to live with any weakness he shows vs. the run this year.

Dodge and co. appear to have a little bit of a find in senior transfer DeMario Dixon.  He has decent size at 260 lbs and appears to be a solid player who plays fairly well vs. the run and pass.  JUCO transfer Frank Gaines was reported to be a 250 LB three star DE recruit, but the Texas heat appears to have melted 20 Lbs off his weight.  He has flashed a little as a pass rusher. Aarron Belazine is a tough nosed, three star freshman DE.  He weighs 232 Lbs and played LB and DT in high school.  Everyone is impressed with him as a player, but the question is how long it will take for him to adjust to college football.

Last year's defensive line was disappointing, but considering the lack of bulk it was understandable.  Everything had to fall exactly right for the line to be effective. Cantly appeared to lose the coaching staff's confidence at DE. DL coach Mike Nelson and DeLoach wasted half of Eddrick Gilmore's senior year at DT before they finally realized what most Mean Green fans and reporters already knew - that Gilmore was a good DE and a mediocre tackle. Jackson got injured and the two big tackles were not in good enough shape to play heavy minutes effectively. Akpunku and Sam Owusu-Hemmeng's work against the run was not very good or consistent.

Still the overall picture wasn't all bad. In the second half of the year the team stopped selling out the run, inserted better run defenders,  and the defense played a lot better. Based off that strong finish, the team gave up 4.8 yards per carry...a big improvement from the 5.6 yards per carry they gave up the year before.

Defensive Coordinator Gary DeLoach and Nelson appear to want to sell out the run again to try to develop a pass rush.  How tight Todd Dodge keeps the reigns on their experimentation with players at spots unfamiliar to them is a key for this team. Dodge cannot afford to wait 6 games to find out the team's best DE by a good margin is on the bench at DT again this season.

Projection: C.  The talent is there for the DL to do a lot better, but I am not convinced the DeLoach/Wilson brain trust is not "too smart by half".  Dodge needs them to be realistic and do what it takes to give him solid D line play even if "their vision" for some players is not met.

LINEBACKERS: Linebacker appears to be a position of strength for UNT. After heated competition in the fall, all three starting linebackers will retain their starting jobs (at least for game 1 against Clemson).

Senior returning starter Craig Robertson leads the way.  He is a very solid player, who is good in space and solid vs. the run.  He is about 10 lbs heavier after a good off-season spent fighting off a challenge from a 3 star JUCO transfer Brad Graham to keep his job. That kind of pressure was not really there last season, and should make Robertson a better player.

Graham won a ton of awards at the JUCO level.  He is an instinctive playmaker who excels in space. He may be smaller than Robertson, but against smaller opponents (like the Sun Belt schools) where his lack of size is less of an issue, do not be surprised to see him take time away from Robertson.

Sophomore Jeremy Phillips, the former high school QB, also added weight and retained his starting job. Phillips has great instincts for the game, but is still a little bit of a work in progress as a linebacker.  He will make a nice big play and then blow an easy tackle.

Three star JUCO transfer Forlando Johnson is small, but lightning quick and covers a lot of ground.  He could be quite a weapon as a blitzing linebacker.

Senior A.J. Penson was a very solid run stuffing middle linebacker in the last part of last season and will start the season in the starting lineup. Has he improved enough to hold off the challenge of the two talented youngsters behind him?Sophomore Daniel Prior or freshman Zack Orr (the 3^rd of the three star linebacker recruits) could unseat Penson at some point in the season.  Both are terrific prospects.  Prior is a little thicker this year.  Orr has great size and is the son of a former NFL player.  He may pick it up quickly.

Projection: B

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD:  If UNT does sell out to generate a pass rush again this year, UNT will need their defensive backs to be much more aggressive in challenging passes.  They need to add to the pressure on opposing QBs by breaking up passes and making interceptions.  Last year UNT’s secondary was all about bringing down their opponents after the catch and not giving up the big play.  They were the kind of secondary one would employ in a "bend, don’t break" defensive philosophy. I don’t see enough playing of the ball to be excited if UNT’s defense is selling out to attack the pass first again this year.

Ford may very well be the missing piece in this secondary. The junior JUCO transfer has taken one of the starting CB jobs and may be the #1 CB by time the season starts.  The coaches had him matching his 4.4 speed against Stradford’s in practice.  Stradford has the moves and the wheels to get open against most CBs, but Ford generally did well against him.  And unlike most of our secondary starters, he will play for the interception.

Junior Royce Hill missed some time this off-season with injuries. He is a very solid #2 cornerback, but is often credited with being much better than that.  He doesn't have the speed to handle the burners or make up the space and jump the pass vs. a fast wideout. With Ford on the roster, Hill likely won't have to and will look even better for it.

I was not impressed with what I saw from the backup cornerbacks overall, but they doesn’t mean they are hopeless. Sometimes a minor technique change can lead to dramatic improvements. That said, I am concerned about them playing heavy minutes today.  JUCO transfer DeLeon McCord is not a bad CB overall, but he is clearly a big step back in coverage ability from the starters.  Still he seems to at least be in the right vicinity and to be a competent tackler.  I really have not watched Jamaal Wilson enough individually to have much of an opinion. Sophomore Hilbert Jackson is well regarded by the coaching staff.

Senior safety Ira Smith gained about 10 lbs over the offseason.  He can cover and is a solid tackler.  He had 4.4 speed when he came to UNT and can cover some ground.

Ryan Downing is a guy I am a little disappointed in.  Downing is a guy who looked like a good playmaker and a reliable safety at the JUCO level. I thought he would challenge for Smith’s spot (perhaps allowing Smith to play a little CB) but that does not appear to have happened. Robbie Gordon is the team's best ballhawk.  He was in the cornerback rotation last season and (at least in my opinion) was one of the team's best CBs. Now he’s a third team safety. I hate this move as this team's backup CBs may not be ready.

What a difference a year can make.  Last year I wondered if junior DaWaylon Cook was not strong enough or confident enough to be a secure tackler.  Now the local reporters regard DeWaylon Cook as one of the bigger hitters on the team. He is a solid player who is decent in coverage.

Junior John Shorter is a good safety who lacks the speed of other members of this secondary and as such may never earn a starting job with this staff, but he is a good player who will bring an opponent down.  I like freshman Will Wright a good deal.  It will take him a while to crack the starting lineup, but I think when he does he may be a real playmaker for this team.

Projection: C+

SPECIAL TEAMS:

I still have a lot of questions about UNT’s special teams. Can UNT kick an extra point without the interior of their line collapsing?  Will their kickers feel comfortable enough to hit even extra points? Are there issues with the snaps and the holders as well, or is this strictly blocking, technique, and confidence issues with the kickers and the blockers?

UNT should be a better coverage team with all the mobile tacklers coming in, but that may take a while to show up in the stats.

Kick returns were a strength last year with Hill and Jackson returning kicks.  Jackson was one of the more dangerous kick returners in the Sun Belt and could be even better this year if he learns the role a little better. Punt returns were a problem last year and could be again this year.  Carey is in the lead to be the returner again this year.  Ford may figure in on returns.

Projection: C

COACHING: I actually have more concerns about Dodge’s assistants than Dodge himself.  Dodge has consistently correctly identified most of his problem areas and moved to address them.  Do his coaches have the ability to do the same?

Offensive Coordinator Mike Canales has wowed the local media with his knowledge and the multiple looks his offense brings to the game. Canales did the same thing in Arizona only to pull back to very unaggressive game plans once the games started.  Canales also had a reputation for vapor locking as a play caller under the pressure.  Canales’s reputation as the offensive boss (an offensive coordinator) is not nearly as glowingly positive as his work as a offensive contributor (a passing game coordinator).

A lot of coaches have issues calling plays in games.  Some of them are smart enough to develop workarounds.  The San Francisco 49ers back in the days of Bill Walsh used to script their play calling for the first part of their game. If Canales did decide to loosely script his first 35 or so plays,  it would give the team a chance to practice the plays in sequence and develop a better understanding of what the coaches are trying to exploit and how to set up their opponents.

Under the gun UNT promoted an assistant, Jeff Bryant, to replace UNT’s OL coach.  With a rookie coach, you may see issues with coordination leading to a lot more sacks this year.  The flip side is this guy is a younger coach who may be better able to better relate to the players.  I think that may present itself in the form of much greater aggression run blocking.

DL Coach Mike Nelson is a dramatic improvement over who we had before.  He is clearly a good teacher of the game, but the last two years suggest he may not be all too skilled at pushing the right buttons with certain players. When you have an abundance of talent, it is OK  to simply to prove you are in charge and occasionally rework bad technique.  If one starting caliber FBS prospect doesn't work out, there are plenty more to fill the void.

At UNT where FBS starting caliber talent with FBS size have not been as plentiful, the job is more challenging.  It involves figuring out what buttons to push with an individual player to to get your best talents to produce at the highest level possible. As last season proved, one squandered plus starting caliber DL talent can destroy the effectiveness of the entire line.  

Over the last two years, I think there is a question whether Nelson above all the other assistants has maximized the talent he has on hand.

I think some of the player position changes may be undermining player confidence in Nelson and their own games. The way most of the moves have not worked out lead me to suspect that Nelson has done a very poor job in selling the players on why they have better odds at succeeding at the new positions. 

It is sensible to sit down with a player individually and break down film of the player, pointing out things they already do very well and explaining how those aspects of their game would work well with their physical attributes much better at the new position.  Painting a picture of how the player can become a more successful player in the scheme at a new position will improve the player's ability to acheive that goal.

If as a coach you cannot build a compelling argument of why the move helps the player compete over staying at a position where the technique is ingrained in them, the odds of the move succeeding are slim. 

More to the point if you can't justify the argument to a player and insist on playing that player in a position where they are not succeeding, aren't you just effectively reducing the number of competent technicians you have on hand at a spot, ultimately reducing the number of effective fronts you can throw at an opponent?  It seems entirely self-defeating.  If a position move is a huge success, go with it.  If not, set a reasonable time limit to stop hammering that square peg.

Along the same lines, Defensive Coordinator Gary DeLoach is a very good defensive mind, but he may need to steered by Dodge to make the decisions that make sense today instead of experimenting with ideas that MIGHT pay off six weeks from now.  Dodge has to win a lot of games in the first eight weeks and frankly cannot afford to bury any talent in moves that don't pay immediate dividends..

If you lack size, talent, and experience at the FBS level, you usually lose.  Dodge has taken a beating in the press over his record, but a big part of the problem was just a lack of talent and size.  Dodge probably underrated the importance of that early in his tenure at UNT, but appears to have learned that lesson.

Projection: C (but Dodge is moving quickly in the right direction).

KEEP AN EYE ON: There are lots of players to keep an eye on.  Will Troy Stradford become the WR his talent suggests he can become? Is Ford UNT’s #1 CB?  When will Esteban Santiago round into shape, and how much of Nathan Tune will be left?  Will Nathan Tune match or exceed his play of last season?
STAR POWER: RB Lance Dunbar is the undisputed star of this team.
STRENGTHS: Offensive line, running game, receivers
WEAKNESSES: physicality, mental toughness, size, coaching, generating turnovers, stopping the run.

UNT has been a soft team since Todd Dodge rolled onto campus.  Until as a team they consistently start winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, UNT will have a hard time winning.

The Mean Green haven’t been very mentally tough either.  Too many times after a turnover UNT's defense will emotionally deflate and give up 70+ yard 5-8 play drives.  They have to be mentally tougher about that.

Good defensive teams don’t lose their focus over what the offense doesn’t achieve. 

And while they are at it, how about holding on to a lead for once?  Getting handed a 10 point lead by your offense doesn't mean that the defense can afford to take a series off. 

It sucks to say, but I can't recall UNT holding on to a 14 point lead (or even a 10 point lead) since Dodge came to town. How can you expect to win if you cannot protect a lead?

The defense needs to show some pride and take equal responsibility in moving the team towards victory. They play like they feel their only job is to slow down an opponent occasionally, so UNT's offense can win a shootout. 

Hold up your end of the bargain. Let's see some shutouts.

UNT needs to learn to step on their opponent’s throat and keep their foot there.

UNT has gotten bigger, but they are still undersized at DE.  In 2008 they looked like a high school team.  In 2009 they looked like an FCS team.  This year they look like an FBS team albeit a small one.

UNT has spent a lot of time working on stripping the ball this off-season.  I expect them to be better in that regard and I could see a few more interceptions, but I don’t expect this team to be much more than average at creating turnovers.  Still that will be a big improvement over last season where they were last in the Sun Belt in generating turnovers.

I think UNT could have a real problem stopping the run again this year as well due to the lack of size at the DE spots.

THE BUZZ: Most predictions have UNT winning 3 games this year, but that seems low considering the sheer number of returning players in the first and second string.

UNT’s schedule is somewhat unforgiving.  UNT probably has to win 5 of their first 8 games to have shot to retain their coaches. They have to come out at the bell fighting hard and need to put their best effort every down for the first 8 rounds.

UNT’s game against Rice (game 2) at Fouts Field will do a lot to suggest the path UNT will be on this season.  With a nice recruiting class Rice will be about as talented as UNT and will enter the game expecting to win. UNT should be able to use the leadership of their upperclassmen to whip their team into maintaining focus to 60 minutes and winning the game.

That kind of win could be a key to learning to win games.

A loss that game however could drop UNT to 0-2 and require them to win at least 5 of their next 6 games.  That would be very tough.

COACH: Todd Dodge (5-31).
LAST SEASON: 2-10 (1-7 in Sun Belt)

Prediction: 6-6

PROJECTED/APPARENT DEPTH CHART
OFFENSE
QB 6 Nathan Tune (6-4/206 Sr.), 7 Derek Thompson (6-4/225, So.), 11 Riley Dodge (6-0/193, R-Fr.)
RB 5 Lance Dunbar (5-9/202 Jr.),  2 James Hamilton (5-8/184, Jr.), 38 Brandin Byrd (5-10/199, FR.)
WR 19 Darius Carey (5-10/188 Soph.), 88 Chris Bynes (6-1/220 Jr.), 9 B.J. Lewis (6-1/204 Jr.), 17 Breece Johnson (6-1/187 Sr.)
WR 15 Jamaal Jackson (5-10/167 Sr.), 4 Alex Lott (5-9/173 Sr.), 11 Riley Dodge (6-0/194 So.),  3 Willie Taylor (5-10/181 So.)
WR 14 Tyler Stradford (6-2/185 Jr.), 18 Benny Jones (6-2/164 Sr.), 82 Michael Outlaw (6-0/191 Sr.), 
TE 87 Conor Gilmartin-Donohue (6-5/253 Sr.), 92 Draylen Ross (6-4/292 Sr.)
UB 84 Greg Brown (6-1/232 Jr.),  89 Jamize Olawale (6-2/226 Jr.), 32 Micah Mosley (6-0/219 Sr.)
T 64 Victor Gill (6-4/265 Sr.), 79 Ayodele Adedipe (6-5/313 So.), 74 Troy Franklin (6-5/280 So.)
T 77 Esteban Santiago (6-3/320 Sr.), 73 Jeremy Bean (6-5/300 Jr.), So 70 Coleman Feeley (6-4/299 So.)
G 72 Matt Tomlinson (6-5/300 Jr.), 60 Aaron Fortenberry (6-4/292 So.), 74 Troy Franklin (6-5/280 So.)
G 68 Kelvin Drake (6-2/295 Sr.), 70 Coleman Feeley (6-4/299 So.), 76 John Noble (6-6/273 Fr.)
C 56 J.J. Johnson (6-3/288 Jr.), 50 Nick Leppo (6-3/280 Fr.), 60 Aaron Fortenberry (6-4/292 So.)
DEFENSE
WDE Brandon Akpunku (6-1/226, Jr.), 49 Frank Gaines (6-1/229 Jr.), 44 Aaron Bellazin (6-2/232 Fr.)
DT 99 Shavod Atkinson (6-2/284, Sr.), 98 John Weber (6-3/274 Sr.), 96 Tevinn Cantly (6-4/336 So.),94 Kyle White (6-2/290 So.)
DT 91 Kelvin Jackson (6-2/310, Sr.), 66 Brandon McCoy (6-2/265 So.), 97 Richard Abbe (6-4/357 Fr.),95 Jesse DeSoto (6-1/268 Sr.)
SDE 48 K.C. Obi (6-2/240, So.), 65 DeMario Dixon (6-3/258 Sr.), 90 Ryan Boutwell (6-3/254 Fr.), 93 LaChristopher Anyiam (6-4/292 Fr.)
OLB 45 Jeremy Phillips (6-3/198, So.) 26 Forlando Johnson (6-0/212 Jr.), 46 Julian Herron (6-2/205 Jr.)
MLB 31 A.J. Penson (6-1/225 Sr.) 35 Zachery Orr (6-0/240 Fr.), 53 Daniel Prior (6-2/228 So.)
OLB 42 Craig Robertson (6-1/229 Sr.) 25 Brad Graham (6-0/199 Jr.)
CB 21 Royce Hill (6-0/181 Jr.), 7 Jamaal Wilson (5-10/182 Jr.), 29 Hilbert Jackson (6-1/182 Fr.)
CB 23 Steven Ford (6-0/173 Jr.), 20 DeLeon McCord (6-1/176 Jr.), 29 Hilbert Jackson (6-1/182 Fr.)
S 10 DaWaylon Cook (6-1/205 Jr.), 18 John Shorter (6-0/195 Jr.), 40 Will Wright (6-2/204 Fr.)
S 8 Ira Smith (5-11/192 Sr.), 22 Ryan Downing (6-1/195 Jr.), 27 Robbie Gordon (6-0/190 Sr.)
SPECIALISTS
K 49 Trent Deans (6-0/191 So.), 39 Jose Serrano (5-11/199 R-Fr.), 37 Zach Olen (5-10/206 Fr.)
P 41 Will Atterberry (5-11/187 So.)  49 Trent Deans (6-0/191 So.)
KR 15 Jamaal Jackson (5-10/165 Sr.) 21 Royce Hill (6-0/181 Jr.)
PR 19 Darius Carey (5-10/188 So.) 23 Steven Ford (6-0/173 Jr.)

MEAN GREEN MINUTIA
(Notes about key personnel mostly pulled from player profiles at UNT.edu)
OFFENSE
QB/WR Riley Dodge — Voted AP Player of the Year at 5A, the highest level of play in Texas. School record 101 career TD passes, 27-2 record in high school, only playoff loss was a game where he was injured.  The most celebrated and awarded prospect in recent UNT history. Set a UNT record with a season 67.7 completion percentage, earned Rivals.com Sun Belt Conference All-Freshman honors, and was a two time Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Week as a first year starter in 2009.
QB Nathan Tune — Led Celina to 16-0 record and 2A state title heading an offense that scored 46.1 PPG in playoffs in 2005. Started two games for UNT in relief of an injured Riley Dodge in 2009.
QB Derek Thompson — 2008 District 7-3A Offensive Player of  the Year leading Glen Rose High to a 10-4 record, the best finish in school history. District 12-3A MVP in 2007. District 12-3A Newcomer of the Year in 2006. 4.7 speed. Ranked a 5.3 out of 6.1 by Rivals.com.
RB Lance Dunbar — Named Sports Illustrated honorable mention All-American in 2009 after 1,378 rushing yards and 19 total touchdowns for UNT.  Three-time 1,000-yard rusher in HS. Team MVP as a senior at Haltom HS.
RB Michah Mosely — four-year HS letterman. AP Texas 4A first team selection. Ran 297 times for 2,403 yards and 29 TDs in 2006.  As a true freshman at UNT ran for 461 yards with 5 TDs.
RB James Hamilton — Rated No. 53 on the Dallas Morning News area top 100 list
RB Brandin Byrd — 167/1061/10 as a high school JR. in 2008; 125/980/12 as a High school Senior in 2009.
WR Michael Outlaw — 51/796/5  as HS junior; 56/816/7 as senior. Named to 2008 MAJC All-State North First Team after 46 catch 624 yard JUCO season. 41/473/2 as a starter for UNT in 2009.
WR Breece Johnson — 88/1,343/19 in 2006. Named AP 5A All-State First Team. Rated 33rd-best receiver prospect in Texas by Rivals.com
WR Jamaal Jackson — 41/418/1 at SWMCC. Runs 4.4. 71/701/6 as a starter at UNT earning All-Sun Belt Second Team in 2009 along with an equally impressive 27.2 yards per kick return.
WR Alex Lott — 46/890 as a Sr. Earned first team all-area. Walked on at UNT and caught 26 passes in 2008 and 22 in 2009.
WR Tyler Stradford — Ranked No. 56th nationally on Rival's list of the best high school receiver prospects in the class of 2007. 4.41 speed.
WR BJ Lewis — 49/958(20.31 ypc)/8 w 72T, 6INTs, 1FR, 2FF and 13 breakups in 2006. Averaged 5/108.6 ypg w/ at least 1+ TD per game in 2006 playoffs. Member of Texas 3A state finalist. 3A all state first team selection. Caught 21 passes for UNT in 2009.
WR Darius Carey — Played quarterback in HS. 2-time all-district 8-4A selection. 4.5 speed. 57/509/4 in 2009 setting freshman records at UNT in receptions and receiving yards.
TE Draylen Ross — First-team All-District 7-4A tight end as a senior. Played in 12 games as a freshman TE for UNT in 2006.
UB Jamize Olawale — 11/276/3 in 2009 in JUCO competition. 
OT Victor Gill — Lead team to school's 1st state title appearance in 2005. Moved from TE to T in college. Started 12 games in 2008 and 10 in 2009. Graded out as team's best lineman at 90% in 2009 and lead the team with 44 knockdowns.
OT Esteban Santiago — Started every game in 2007 and 2008 and 11 games in 2009, earing second-team all-Sun Belt honors.
G/T Jeremy Bean — 3 star prospect by Rivals.  JUCO transfer.  In 2007,high school team averaged 34.5 ppg. Named district defensive POY and team MVP in 2006.
G Coleman Feeley — two-way starter and team captain in HS. Started seven games as a true freshman.
G Matt Tomlinson — Houston Chronicle Area Top-100 prospect. Played in all 12 games for UNT in 2009.
G Kevin Drake — Three year letterman in HS. Started all 12 games in 2007 earning second team all conference honors. Came back from lost season to start all 12 games in 2009 at guard.
C J.J. Johnson — Rated as fourth-best center in Texas by Rivals.com. Started all 12 games as redshirt freshman in 2008. Won UNT's Outstanding Offensive lineman award in 2008. Started all 12 games in 2009.
DEFENSE
DE Brandon Akpunku — Member of 2006 5A Texas State champion. 55t/8s/3fr as a high school senior in 2007. Erupted on the Sun Belt scene in 2009 leading UNT both in sacks with 6 and tackles for losses with 11.5.
DE Aaron Bellazine — 2009 4A Second Team All-State. First team all-84A in 2008. Second team all- 8-4A in 2007. Rivals three star prospect.
DE Frank Gaines — San Diego County Defensive Player of the Year in 2008. 3 star prospect. 
DT Shavod Atkinson — Honorable mention KJCCC all-conference team in 2008.  Team's best Defensive tackle in 2009, playing in all 12 games and starting six.
DT Jesse DeSoto — 51T/11tfl/7s/4ff in 2006. Rated as 19th best defensive tackle prospect in Texas by Rivals.com.  Recorded 2 sacks for UNT in 2008.
DT Kelvin Jackson — Named to the MACJC North Second Team in 2008 at Itawamba CC. Played in 11 games for UNT in 2009, starting five.
DT Kyle White —Ranked a 5.1 prospect out of 6.1 by Rivals.com.
DT Tevinn Cantly — 29 tackles,12 for losses, 2 fumble recoveries and 1 forced fumble in 5 games at DT as a high school senior. Move to Defensive tackle at midseason was part of defensive resurgence in 2009.
DE K.C. Obi — took Brandon Akpunku's starting DE spot as part of midseason resurgence. Started 4 games and earned Rivals All-Sun Belt Freshman Team Honors.
DE John Weber — Louisiana All state DE. 4.85 speed. 8.5 sacks in 2008 at Itawamba CC. Ranked a 5.4 out of 6.1 by Rivals.com as a prospect.
OLB Jeremy Phillips — MVP of District 18-4A. Ranked as one of the top 6 “athletes” in the area by the Houston Chronicle.
OLB Forlando Johnson — first-team all-Jayhawk Community College Conference in 2009 on eigth ranked defense in NJCAA. Three star recruit by rivals.
MLB AJ Penson — Rated as No. 40 MLB prospect in nation by Scout.com. Started 12 games for UNT in 2008.
MLB Daniel Prior — Ranked a 5.3 out of 6.1 by Rivals.com. Ranked the No. 36 SLB in the nation by Scout.com. 4.66 Speed.
MLB Zachery Orr — 5A all state selection as a junior after a monster year where he recorded 157 tackles, 24 for losses, 11 sacks, 1 Int and 3 fumble recoveries. Three star recruit by Rivals.
OLB Craig Robertson — Earned 11 letters in four HS sports, including first-team all-district in basketball, baseball and football. Honorable mention all-Sunbelt in 2007. 2 time UNT outstanding linebacker recipient. Lead the team in tackles with 107 in 2009.
OLB Brad Graham — Recorded 96 tackles, 13 for losses, with one sack and three forced fumbles in 2009 on his way to being named to the NJCAA All-American First Team Defense and winning the NJCAA Defensive Player of the Year award. Three star recruit by rivals.
CB Steven Ford — 49 tackles, 3 Ints, 1 forced fumble. 3 Star prospect by rivals. 4.4 speed.
CB Royce Hill — Ranked the 30th best corner prospect in the nation by ESPN.com.  Started 9 games in 2008. Started 12 games in 2009, talling 3 interceptions and a 26.3 yard per kick return average.
CB/S Robbie Gordon — Voted best defensive back in 5A district 1 and Unanimous selection to Daily Ardmorite Super Team as a senior after 48 tackles, five ints and three fumble recovery season.  Also member of high school 4x100 meter relay team that recorded the fastest time in Oklahoma in 2005.
S DaWaylon Cook — 3 year starter in HS. 2007 District 13-4A Most Valuable Player. Played in 11 games in 2008. Started all 12 games in 2009 and was named team's most outstanding defender.
S Will Wright — 75 tackles, 9 Interceptions as a high school senior in 2009. 10-5A First Team.
S Ira Smith — Part of a JUCO class that finished with a 22-2 record & a 2007 NJCAA co-national title. 4.4 speed.Ranked a 5.6 prospect out of 6.1 by Rivals.com. Started 11 games in 2009.
S Ryan Downing — 62 tackles, 3 Interceptions, 8 passes defended in 2009 at Buler CC. Three Star recruit by rivals.  

As I sat working on my big annual preseason mega preview of UNT football, I was hit with an idea for a series of weekly articles that would pose the big question UNT faced for each of their upcoming games.

As history proves, I am absolutely garbage at predictions, so this hits me as a much better preview strategy.

How Exactly Is UNT Defensive Coordinator Gary DeLoach Going to Keep the Clemson Game in Reach?

Local scribe Brett Vito sat down with UNT Head Coach Todd Dodge and extracted the team's current two deep roster. What caught my eye was the defensive line depth chart.

DE: Brandon Akpunku, Aaron Bellazin
DE: K.C. Obi, Demario Dixon
DT: Kelvin Jackson, Brandon McCoy
DT: Shavod Atkinson, John Weber

For those of you unfamiliar with the players let me flesh this out for you a bit.

WDE: DE Brandon Akpunku 240 Jr., DE Aaron Bellazin 232 Fr.
SDE: DE K.C. Obi 240 So., DE Demario Dixon 260 Sr.
DT: DT Kelvin Jackson 310 Sr., DE Brandon McCoy 265 So.
DT: DT Shavod Atkinson 284 Sr., DE John Weber 274 Sr.

The team is apparently taking five players to play at the DT and DE spots. It looks like the fifth DE on the travel roster may be Jr. 229 Lb. JUCO DE Frank Gaines.  That would have our average weight at DE for the game being 240 lbs.

Maybe that is just a representation of who worked the hardest to generate playing time. In general, I don't have problems with that.  But I think the Clemson game may call for a better thought out player mix.

I am concerned as it looks a lot like DeLoach is trying to make this team as athletic as possible and to get as many pass rushers on the field as possible to force bad throws that our secondary can make plays on. 

This is the same thing that was tried last year, but our secondary was entirely focused on taking down their men after the catch instead of challenging passes. The defensive line was playing with a press mentality and the secondary was focused on a bend, don't break philosophy.

The coaching staff sold out stopping the run for lighter personnel to create pressure and poorly thrown passes, but with no one in the secondary playing the ball, all you ended up with was a defense that didn't create any turnovers and couldn't stop the run for the first half of the season.

While UNT's staff has tried to really focus on generating more turnovers, I suspect any improvements in that area will come in the way of strips. With the possible exception of new starting CB Jr. Steven Ford, I don't think any of our starting defensive backs have an inherent inclination to play the ball for interceptions.

To me only Ford might fit in that ballhawk category. When I think of ballhawks on the roster my list begins with CB apparently turned backup safety Robbie Gordon and includes guys like starting OLB Jeremy Phillips, backup safeties Ryan Downing and Will Wright. Most of those guys probably aren't going to play much this game and may not even travel.

Then There Is Clemson's Identity

Clemson won one of the ACC's divisions last year behind a powerful running game lead by current NFL player C.J. Spiller.

They return six offensive starters including their starting QB Soph. Kyle Parker (55.6% 20TDs 12 INTs as a freshman starter) and four of their starting linemen, including both starting tackles.  

One of their starting tackles, LT Chris Hairston (6-7/325 Sr.) was an All-ACC second team pick last year. The other, Landon Walker (6-6/305 Jr.), doesn't suck either. 

They return two experienced backs with disturbing rushing averages against BCS AQ conference competition. Andre Ellington averaged 7.2 yards per carry last season. Jaime Harper averaged 5.2 yards per carry. 

While it is true Clemson will be breaking in new receivers, it seems very unlikely that Clemson is likely to pass that much on UNT specifically. It also seems unlikely that if they did, UNT's undersized and unproven DEs would be able to beat those proven offensive tackles with any consistency. 

Or if they succeeded in that, it seems unlikely that Clemson's experienced returning QB  who has faced the best defenses in the ACC will melt under pressure from a bunch of 230 pounders. 

Or if he did, it seems unlikely UNT's starting secondary which has no history of making plays on misthrown balls is going to make plays on those misthrown balls.

I question if this is a strategy that can work for this game. I question if this is a strategy that can keep a team in a game like this.

If UNT can stay close, they have a shot to win this game. Clemson is annually a good BCS AQ conference program, but this is not like UNT vs. the eventual national champions last season. Clemson may have good SEC level talent and depth, but Clemson has a longstanding tradition of sleepwalking through games. This is not like playing a Nick Saban coached team.

Talent, Depth of Talent, and BCS AQ programs

Football programs from BCS AQ conferences generally beat schools from lower level conferences. The reasons for that are fairly apparent if you think about it—they get better talent and more of it.

A good BCS level school (like Clemson) against a good non-BCS level FBS school (what we hope UNT will be) will have the characteristics of this game. Clemson has the slightly better starting talent but has much bigger and more talented depth than UNT.

Usually, the smaller conference team hangs around until halftime or the third quarter until their backups have to come in at which point suddenly their defense starts springing leaks and eventually the game ends as a 20+ point loss.

In these scenarios the key for the team with less talent is controlling the clock. This keeps your defensive starters fresh and allows you to play your defensive starters for as great a portion of the game as you can minimizing the size and talent difference and keeping the opponent in reach.

What Clemson Wants to Do

With Clemson returning four of five starting lineman and two very strong runners and having to replace their receivers, it seems very likely that Clemson will aim for a game plan that relies heavily on the run, reducing the pressure on their pass receivers.

Enter UNT with two 240 lb starting DEs.

Clemson will likely try to run outside on UNT all day.

As Clemson's two returning starters averaged 5-7 yards per carry last year against BCS AQ schools' defenses running behind mostly the same line, it seems fairly likely they will be able to average five yards a carry at least running outside on UNT if that is the Mean Green's strategy.

Even if UNT stops the first five drives without giving up more than say 13 points, they will likely have given up a number of 40-50+ yard extended drives. After the Tigers roll down the field the third or fourth time, UNT's starting defenders are going to need a break.

When that occurs you could see UNT lose 10 lbs at each end, 30 lbs on average at DE and another 25 on average at the OLB sports. I am certainly not trying to impugn the ability of UNT's backups, but size does play a role in the running game and defending the running game.

At that point you could see UNT giving up the big play and the game getting out of hand.

UNT Has the Attributes to Stay on the Field with a Good BCS AQ Team like Clemson

The offense has a good offensive line, a somewhat proven QB who has a history of avoiding turnovers, and a variety of skill players with a variety of attributes.  We have an offensive scheme that can attack a lot of areas on the field in a lot of different ways. Clemson will be breaking in new linebackers and won't have any film to work from.  We will likely attack the linebackers. We have the talent and scheme to do so, control the clock, and score points.

The question is can we slow them down on defense?  Defensively the first thing a coordinator has to do in these types of games is locate areas where your starting talent might be able to beat their starting talent and generate some 3 and outs.

Securing short series gives your offense an ability to control the clock.

UNT's best returning defensive players overall from play to play may be S DaWaylon Cook, CB Royce Hill, and Craig Robertson, but let's be honest for a moment.  At this point in their careers they have only proven to be solid and consistent players at the Sun Belt level, not game changing difference makers. 

UNT does have two defensive starters who do have the talent to make big plays against good BCS AQ talent. UNT's starting defensive tackles Jackson and Atkinson have flashed big time potential. It is not difficult to imagine one of them occasionally beating a Clemson guard for a tackle for no gain or a loss forcing Clemson into a third and long where the attack approach has a reasonable chance of success.

The problem is if Clemson realizes they can pick up five or six yards on most downs running at our ends, it totally neutralizes Jackson and Atkinson's ability to impact the game.

UNT has to be able to control the run outside to allow Atkinson and Jackson to disrupt Clemson's game plan.

To me, for this game specifically, it means UNT needs more size.

Dodge As Overseer and the Travelling Roster

After last season I advocated Todd Dodge take a less hands-on role with the offense to allow him to maintain the perspective needed to oversee problem areas in all areas of the team.

Dodge appears to have independently arrived at the same conclusion and has largely turned the reigns of the offense over to new coordinator Mike Canales. This has allowed Dodge to clearly identify a number of trouble areas on this team already. Not Physical enough? Noted. Kicking team doing a poor job blocking? Noted. Kickers struggling?  Noted.

This appears to be the very scenario that having Dodge overseeing would address.

What is the path to victory if UNT takes an undersized line to Clemson?  Dodge needs to have his defensive staff justify this decision. If they can, fine. Go with it.

But UNT cannot afford to treat this game like an NFL preseason game and just go take their ass-whipping as they try out different pass rushing strategies and personnel mixes for their "real" first game against Rice.

This team needs something they can build off.

Clemson will take UNT lightly. There is an opportunity there.

If UNT can control Clemson's running game a little and keep the score down allowing the offense to keep the game close (say 31-26), UNT's players will have a ton of confidence coming home to play Rice in what sets up to be pretty close to a must win game.

If UNT goes to Clemson and they get dusted 58-19, give up 300 yards on the ground, and don't generate any turnovers, every player on the team is going to enter the Rice game with major doubts.

This is a great opportunity for Dodge to tell DeLoach, "Hey, I want Weber to get 20 plays at strong side DE, MCCoy a few plays at one of the end spots and Richard Abbe 20 plays at DT this week. Let’s think about bringing a Tevinn Cantly (if he can go), Ryan Boutwell, or Kyle White. Let’s see what they can do."

If one of these guys makes an impact, UNT will be in a MUCH, much stronger defensive position for the rest of the year.  UNT knows they have a handful of pretty decent pass rushers—finding a run stuffing DE or DT...or two...would give the team a lot more flexibility and a lot more confidence for the rest of the season.

It is admittedly early to say conclusively what UNT's strategy defensively will be, but when the travel roster is announced we should have a good feel for what UNT will try to do defensively vs. Clemson. I think who makes the travel roster will do a lot to determine how UNT does this week. To me that makes it all up to Dodge and DeLoach.

And that is this week's big question.

 

 

UNT played their first fall football scrimmage Saturday morning.  While I was unable to attend, I have gathered a series of source articles that cover the nitty-gritty well.  I will also sum up what occurred in a general overview and give some thoughts in an effort to provide some framing perspective - something that is often overlooked in the kinds of articles that were sourced for this report.

Summing up the scrimmage

The defense reportedly played well overall.  The back seven looked pretty good and the D-line had a lot of good moments.  The first team defense played very well, the second team popped some leaks.  The team was strong against the pass, but somewhat weak versus the run.

On the issue that really matters to Mean Green fans—the QB battle—reviews were somewhat split, although everyone thought Derek Thompson did better.  The stats and Bret Vito's reports painted it as fairly decisive. The Mean Green Blog folks saw it as a lot closer.

Going into the scrimmage, the MGB guys had senior Nathan Tune narrowly ahead due to stronger work in the practices.  After the scrimmage, MGB writer Steven Bartolotta suggested that Thompson probably pulled even with Tune or now may even have a narrow lead.

Much like the final spring scrimmage, Tune opened the game facing the first-team defense and struggled early, only to see his competition, sophomore Thompson, come in and light up the second-team defense for two quick TDs before the defense put a cap on him.  (To be fair, Thompson probably should have had a third TD pass later in the game, but Jamaal Jackson dropped a pass in the end zone.) 

Tune played better as the game went on, hitting a number of big passes and eventually hooking up with Brelan Chancellor for a TD. 

It sounds eerily similar to the last spring game in that regard.  Thompson had the better highlight throws and "won the scrimmage", but really the difference may not have been pronounced and may have had more to do with the personnel on the field.

Thompson's first TD pass was reportedly a strike to a streaking Tyler Stradford.  His second TD pass was described as an under-thrown ball that JUCO transfer Chris Bynes made a great adjustment to snag.

(I think the under-thrown aspect of it may need to be confirmed.  Sometimes a pass has to be under-thrown to give only the receiver a shot to catch it.  It is unclear if that was what Thompson was doing—a real positive—or if was just a bad throw that the receiver made a hell of a play to catch.)

Tune had two interceptions, but he had a lot of bad luck on each play. Tune had an interception on a pass that hit Willie Taylor's hands and then bounced off his facemask to MLB Daniel Prior.  It is usually hard to fault a QB on that kind of play.  Tune also threw a pass behind Riley Dodge, hitting him in the shoulder and popping up to where DB Robbie Gordon was able to pick it off.

Maybe with better personnel on the field, both are receptions and not interceptions, but the bottom line numbers looked ugly for Tune: 8 of 18 with 1 TD 2 INTs. Thompson, by comparison, was 7 of 10 with 2 TDs 0 INTs.

Senior and former 3-star JUCO recruit Jeremy Bean and his competition, junior Matt Tomlinson, reportedly started on the OL as UNT's best lineman, senior strong-side tackle Esteban Santiago, did not start.  The team ran the ball pretty well overall, but had some problems controlling the pass rush on blitzes.  It is unclear how much of those pass blocking issues occurred versus the first team. With Santiago out, even if the first unit had some breakdowns, you have to take them with a grain of salt for now. 

The kicking team is another story.  The team had a couple of blocks on FGs and extra points.

Freshman Brelan Chancellor returned some punts.

Senior John Weber made a couple of tackles for losses and a sack playing with the third team.   Apparently, at least some of his time was spent at DE. 

Now 240-lb, returning sophomore, starting DE KC Obi apparently had a great game rushing the passer and 3-star freshman DE Aaron Bellazine apparently flashed as a pass-rusher too.

Thoughts on the proceedings

It sounds like our starting defensive tackles and back seven will be very solid.  We have a lot of potential starting-caliber players at DE as well.  If the D can learn to maintain their focus, not lapse into bad technique and mentally take plays, series, and even quarters off like they did last year, they could be very good—especially against Sun Belt rosters.  They need to start playing every play like it could decide the game.

I am concerned about our third and fourth CBs and our ends. 

Thompson coming in and torching the second team pretty quickly for big passes is becoming a recurring theme.  I am interested to see how Thompson would do starting out against the first team in a scrimmage and Tune starting against the second.  That would clarify if we are really seeing Thompson emerge. 

Right now, one has to think there may be a correlation between Thompson's early scrimmage TD successes and him facing the second-team D. 

It concerns me that the backup DBs get lit up when they come in and the starters do not.  We will need some guys who can cover a little coming in off the bench. 

Is it a lack of talent, a failure on their part to enter the game with the right mindset, or maybe just a lack of a pass rush from the second unit?

We are still at a work-in-progress point of the season.  One should look for potential red flags, but acknowledge they might disappear fairly quickly with coaching.

It is interesting to see that CB Robbie Gordon made another interception.    He made one in the last fall scrimmage as well.  On a team without playmakers, Gordon has a nose for the ball. 

I read in Dave Campbell's 2010 Texas Football that UNT has Gordon backing up Ira Smith at safety instead of at CB, but I don't know if that is accurate at all.  I liked Gordon last year at CB a lot, but you hear very little about him in the cornerback discussion.  He wasn't even discussed as a potential starter in the spring before guys like 3-star JUCO recruit CB Steven Ford arrived and when junior CB Royce Hill was out. That is a little troubling. 

Why is that?  Dodge and Co. love speed and Gordon may not have enough for their taste.  Or there could be an issue that coaches see that fans do not.  Does he not work hard enough in practice?  Does he make the same technical mistakes over and over?  It will be interesting to follow Robbie Gordon.

Ford may be the long-coveted No. 1 CB that UNT has needed.  This is great news as the other 3-star JUCO CB D'Andre Wood didn't make it to UNT.

I would still like to hear that Ira Smith is getting some CB reps before the season starts.   He was listed at 183 lbs last season and now is at 192, but he is still a small guy at safety—even though he does a very good job. 

I think Downing is probably going to be good enough to earn some playing time at a safety slot, so it could make sense to get Smith, with his 4.4 speed, to occasionally give our starters a break if no one steps up and solidifies the third and fourth CB spots.

Dawaylon Cook lit up Michael Outlaw in the scrimmage.  I remember seeing him barely hang on to runners in the fall scrimmage last year.  It is just bizarre to hear him being called the team's "hard hitting junior" this year and the team's hardest hitter.  It may very well be true after a solid year last season, but it is still weird to hear.

Last year, I was questioned the idea that Cook, and not Eddrick Gilmore, was the team's most outstanding defensive player.  But sometimes a player really requires positive reinforcement.  If winning that award has led to him becoming the kind of player who could potentially deserve that award, then kudos to the staff for giving it to him.

To me, this team looks loaded with starting-caliber linebackers.  I disagree with Stephen Howard's suggestion that LB is one of the perceived weakest areas of the team.  Three solid returning starters challenged by a trio of 3-star recruits and a talented OLB prospect in Julian Herron doesn't sound weak on paper to me.

I think we could lose a couple to injury and still have an above-average unit for the Sun Belt.  They may be a little light, but they play well. 

The question, like last season, will be if the DL can do their job holding the line of scrimmage somewhat, allowing the LBs to make plays.

Todd Dodge after the game called junior JUCO 3-star recruit LB Forlando Johnson a highlight of the game.

I'll tell you, that is very interesting.  Dodge described the UNT defense on signing day as having two linebackers in the box working forward and one more like a safety working in space.  The two returning OLBs are really accomplished space guys. 

3-star JUCO transfer LB Brad Graham, the early star of the recruiting class, seems to be a guy who can excel at both, but my take is that he is better in space as well.  His flexibility will earn him a lot of PT this year, but may actually work against him in terms of taking a starting job as he is splitting his time at multiple spots. 

Forlando Johnson is a fast, box-and-forward guy who covers a lot of ground.  The media keeps reporting that the coaching staff sees him as a potential starter, leading me to believe that he might ultimately squeak ahead of Phillips for the other OLB spot based on his better blitzing potential.

That the coaching staff is so high on him now, even before they have started to practice blitzing—an area that should be his forte with his explosiveness—suggests he may have an edge at that spot.  It bodes very well for UNT, as Phillips is a gamer.  Having two playmakers fighting for PT could bring out the best in both.

The now 240-lb sophomore K.C. Obi played well by all accounts, pressuring the QB. Obi was a very solid backside chaser last year.  I still think he is going to have trouble generating push and holding position this year, but it is hard to see how he wouldn't be better with an apparently great offseason under his belt.

I think his body won't be ready to allow him to be a plus starter until next season, but in an unproven field, Obi is flashing more than the others.

I am deeply concerned that we will be too small at defensive end to prevent a blowout against Clemson.  Obi is 240 lbs. The other first team DE Brandon Akpunku is also listed at 240 lbs.  Frankly, we may find out that 240 lbs includes pizza weight that is likely to melt off in practice.

To make matters worse, two of the other DEs in the mix as possible the third or fourth tackles are junior JUCO 3-star DE Frank Gaines—allegedly a 250-pounder when recruited, Gaines has withered to a mere 229 in the Texas heat—and Aaron Bellazine, a highly-touted freshman 3-star DE prospect who played DT and LB in high school, who only weighs 232 lbs.

That is really light on the edges vs. Clemson.

Clemson is a program with SEC-caliber size and depth. If presented with an obvious mismatch, they will run on UNT's DEs all day long.

UNT is clearly planning to rotate out DEs to try to help in that regard.  The travel plans call for UNT to take five defensive ends to Clemson.  They will probably all play, but the questions to me are, "how many plays for the starters and who will backup?"

This is a moment where Todd Dodge needs to curb Defensive Corrdinator Gary DeLoach.  DeLoach is all about getting this team to control passing attacks.  That is good and fine, but if you throw five pass-rush-first DEs that average 240 lbs against Clemson, they will run outside on you all day long and UNT will lose in a blowout fashion. 

Selling out the run to stop the pass against Clemson is just dumb.   Clemson is starting a veteran QB who has been hit a lot harder than a 230-lb DE from UNT is likely to hit him.  Even if UNT can get pressure, it isn't likely to take Clemson's QB off his game.  So why sell out the run for a marginal gain?

UNT can afford to lose, but a blowout could be very harmful to morale.

DeLoach is DeLusional if he thinks Clemson won't run on UNT 45 times in that scenario.  Dodge needs to rein in our eccentric genius, for this one game anyway.

You need to bring your best run defenders for this particluar kind of opponent and that usually means size.

You need more size than that against Clemson.  And really, this game represents the perfect opportunity to provide a career-changing chance for an underachiever.  Let some of your bigs at DE travel to Clemson.  Tell them that the Clemson game is a chance for one of them to earn a slot in the top 3 at DE for the rest of the season if they play well.

Clearly, for some the stick does not work.  Why not try the carrot?

254-lb Ryan Boutwell, 265-lb Ryan McCoy, 274-lb John Weber, and 260-lb newbie Demario Dixon could all compete for the remaining three travel slots.  If one of the three emerges against Clemson, UNT's strong-side DE problem might be resolved.

What makes this interesting is how many plays the senior DE Weber is making against the backups and what that may suggest.  He is the largest of our DE prospects.  He apparently is getting plays at DE now (while they clearly state he played DE Saturday, it is unclear from the scrimmage reviews if he played there exclusively).  In the spring he was a pass-rushing eagle tackle experiment.  I would love to see if he can handle the starting strong-side DE job.  Barring that, it makes a lot of sense to get him heavily into the DE rotation for game one against Clemson, at least with their strong OL.

It will be interesting to see if Weber has climbed out of third string at DE.  I want to know if he is on the travelling roster to Clemson.

True freshman DT Richard Abbe (a 357-pounder) and Tevin Cantly (now 336 lbs) saw a lot of time at DT as a run-stuffing duo.  That may have been simply a tryout or it could be strategy, as game one is Clemson with their strong running game.

There are a lot of defensive tackles that have actually shed some weight this year, so DeLoach and Co. may see more potential eagle tackle types on the roster, allowing Weber to compete at DE.  According to Bret Vito, sophomore Kyle White has dropped down from last year's 300+ lbs to around 290 lbs. (He is still listed at 309 lbs on the team roster, though.) Senior Jesse DeSoto is listed as down to 268 lbs and, shocker of shockers, UNT's best defensive tackle from last year, senior Shavod Atkinson is listed at 284 lbs, down from last year's 307 lbs.

Cantly appears to have eaten his way out of the DE discussion, which based on his play at both spots last season is probably a good thing.  Now he seems to be having knee problems flare up, perhaps in part from carrying too much weight.  Hopefully, that will correct itself.

Punter Will Atterbury looked great by all accounts.

I am glad to see Todd Dodge really becoming more of a team overseer, with an offensive coordinator on staff that he doesn't feel the need to tightly manage.  Dodge was quoted after the scrimmage noting that kick blocking would have to improve.

Huzzah!

This, to me, could be one of the keys to having a successful season. If a team keeps getting kicks blocked, blocking is almost always a huge part of the problem.

If special teams and running backs coach Shelton Gandy cannot get this problem area resolved, Dodge may need to give that area of responsibility to Gary DeLoach. (DeLoach ran UCLA's special teams quite competently for a few years.)  Teams will continue to come after UNT's kicking game until the Mean Green prove they can block for FGs.  This has the potential to cost UNT 2-3 games in the Sun Belt this year, so kudos to Dodge for getting out ahead on it.

I am cheering for freshman Chancellor to land a return job, although I'd have pushed for a spot on the kick return team instead of the punt return team.  Still punt returns are a problem area.  The kid's measurables are nothing to write home about, but if you have seen his highlights, you have seen that this kid is made for open-field running.  He is one of those guys who runs away from people on the field.

Chancellor and RB Brandin Byrd—high school teammates—actually share that open-field explosiveness.

The depth chart at RB appears to be settling into a firm order, with Lance Dunbar starting and converted DB Lance Hamilton and freshman Brandin Byrd backing him up.  All three are small scooters. 

I think it would make a world of sense to redshirt Byrd, but the coaching staff clearly loves his potential.  Add to this the fact that Byrd came in early and you get the feeling he doesn't want to sit a season either.

Both backups run with purpose, hitting holes hard.

There appears to be excellent insurance if Dunbar goes down.  In such a scenario, UNT may not have Dunbar, but they will have runners as good as most other Sun Belt teams.  UNT may have five guys who are capable of 100-yard games.

Senior Esteban Santiago showed up 30 pounds over his playing weight from last season.  That is a huge concern. 

While I advocated some weight gain by Santiago, there is talk of potentially moving him to guard if he can't lose enough weight to play tackle.  Santiago should be in discussions as the Sun Belt's best offensive lineman, not being looked at as a potential weak link to be covered up. 

That is disappointing. 

Hopefully Santiago drops the extra pounds quickly.

Most of the reviewers suggest Tomlinson looked like he took a step ahead of Jeremy Bean in the race for the guard spot.  With Santiago out, I would be hesitant to reach that conclusion based off the scrimmage.  How Santiago conditions may play a big role in that decision.

At wide receiver, Darius Carey's moving injury appears to have cracked the door for Bynes.  The thought was that Stradford, Carey, and Jackson would be the three starting wide receivers this year and would catch most of the balls.  Stradford and Jackson are 4.4 burners and Carey is not slow himself, with 4.5 speed.

The now bigger-looking Carey looked really good in the last spring scrimmage, favoring a possession-type, chain-moving, No. 1 receiver, but with his injury and a very deep and talented receiver corps, it should be no shock that others are emerging.

Bynes may be the team's most natural receiver.  He has great hands.  I would actually be surprised if he is not the team's reception leader going into the Rice game.  I actually think it is not at all out of the question that you might see Jackson fall behind the other three in reception totals by season's end.

Offseason superstar Benny Jones has also appeared to earn the confidence of the new coaches and perhaps a place in the rotation.  Jones has good speed.

Finally, some thoughts on the quarterbacks.

Thompson has a big arm, but is really a top-notch, mid-range passer.  He is not truly a deep bomber, but he throws an excellent and accurate 30-35 yard pass over the middle.  That is a great skill to have.  Troy Aikman went to the NFL Hall of Fame throwing accurate short and mid-range passes. Thompson is also a bull-strong runner with a big frame.

As the unproven commodity in the QB duel, Thompson has to outperform Tune to win the starting job.  The first fall scrimmage was a good start.

Tune has a big arm, too, and can throw all of the passes with accuracy, but he appears a bit more methodical.  He is far more likely to check down and take the safe 10-yard gain than risk it going for the big score if he doesn't think it is a safe play. 

While there are few sprinkles to his running, he runs a lot better than credited and throws accurately on the move.  (In an amusing side note, after a feverish offseason of weight training, Tune, the former "stick man from Celina", is now officially listed as one pound heavier than Thompson!)  Tune is one of the rare QBs who can throw deep with accuracy.  He just doesn't do it that much. 

Will that cost him the job vs. the unabashed gunslinger Thompson?

UNT is in the fortunate position of being able to choose between two competent-looking starting QB candidates.  Will they chose the Gunslinger or the Game Manager?

Here are the articles sourced in this report:

Green Gang: Scrimmage Report Cards By Steven Bartolotta

Saturday's Scrimmage Chat hosted by Steven Bartolotta, Zach Barnett, & Stephen Howard

Green Gang: Defense Forces The Issue Saturday By Stephen Howard

Mean Green Blog coverage of the scrimmage by Brett Vito

The series of unit rankings among Sun Belt Conference football teams continues with a discussion of the running back position.

Four SBC teams ranked among the nation's top 37 in rushing offense last season. This is odd, considering that there were only four players in the conference to break 1,000 rushing yards for the season, and one of those was a quarterback.

All but one of the Sun Belt's top 10 rushers from 2009 return this season, meaning defensive coordinators have more to worry about than just the forward pass in this spread-happy league.

The Sun Belt's backfield crews, from top to bottom, line up like this:

1. North Texas

The SBC's three dominant running backs return, but all three lack experienced backups. This could leave their teams one errant step away from disaster, or possibly a new revelation.

UNT junior Lance Dunbar was one such revelation when he took over the starting job from the now-departed Cam Montgomery. By season's end, Dunbar had rolled up 1,378 yards, only 14 behind conference leader Alfred Morris of Florida Atlantic. However, Dunbar's total came on 63 fewer carries.

Where Dunbar separates himself in the rankings is the fact that he can separate himself on the field. He was one of only two players to break a run of more than 70 yards last season (MTSU QB Dwight Dasher was the other), and his 19 total touchdowns included eight plays of greater than 30 yards. His 28 receptions (totaling 300 yards) were more than Morris and ULM's Frank Goodin combined.

Junior James Hamilton and sophomore Jeremi Mathis both toted the ball 11 times last season, making them the most experienced backup options.

2. Florida Atlantic

Converted fullback Alfred Morris took over last spring as an injury replacement and made the most of the opportunity. The "A-Train" rumbled for 1,392 yards and 11 touchdowns, finishing 14th in the nation in rushing yards.

Morris introduced himself with a minor bang, rumbling for 95 yards in the 2009 opener, a lopsided loss to Nebraska. The biggest game of his sophomore season came against Louisiana-Lafayette, when he pounded out 181 yards and two scores in a 51-29 Owl victory.

Morris isn't much of a receiver, catching only seven passes all of last season. He may have to become more of a dump-off option in FAU's pro-style offense, however, as the Owls are replacing their entire offensive line.

Senior Willie Floyd has 51 career carries, and sixth-year senior Jeff Blanchard has 28. Blanchard's injury was the one that necessitated Morris's conversion to tailback, so fall practice will determine if Blanchard gets first shot to be Morris's caddy.

Fullback Willie Rose graduated, but sophomore Xavier Stinson should make a seamless transition into the starting role, as he was trusted with 30 carries last season.

3. Louisiana-Monroe

Senior Frank Goodin, the third member of the SBC's trio of returning workhorses, is less than 900 yards shy of becoming ULM's all-time rushing leader. Unlike Dunbar and Morris, Goodin has been a contributor from day one, accounting for 596 and 783 yards in his first two seasons.

Goodin was consistent last season, but rarely as spectacular as Dunbar or Morris. He topped 110 yards only twice last season, even failing to break 70 in four games. However, he had only three games where he topped 20 carries, since ULM had a tendency to fall behind and try to pass their way back in.

His 18 receptions were helpful, but Goodin never did find the end zone on a pass play. With the center and right side of the Warhawks' line being rebuilt this season, whoever earns the ULM quarterback position may have to find new ways to get the ball into Goodin's hands.

Senior Rodney Lovett has 112 career carries for 461 yards, making him more experienced than anyone backing up Dunbar or Morris. However, converted quarterback Jyruss Edwards could slide in and take some carries off of Lovett's plate.

4. Troy

With Levi Brown breaking Sun Belt records last season, the Troy running game may have seemed a bit neglected. That didn't stop DuJuan Harris and Freshman of the Year award winner Shawn Southward from both cracking the SBC's top 10 in rushing.

Now that Brown is gone, the senior Harris and the sophomore Southward may get their opportunity to match the Nevada Wolf Pack's feat last season of having two 1,000-yard rushers.

Southward was the greater big play threat last season, stacking up 19 more yards than Harris on 41 fewer carries. The two combined for 22 rushing touchdowns, helping to balance out a scoring offense that ranked 16th nationally.

Harris is the more dangerous receiver, accounting for 63 catches and 458 yards over the past two seasons. Neither Southward (5'8", 184 lbs.) or Harris (5'7", 195 lbs.) is very strongly built, meaning that it'll be unlikely that we see both in the backfield at once. Harris could be a dangerous slot threat, however.

5. Middle Tennessee State

MTSU has easily the deepest backfield in the SBC. What drops them to fifth in these rankings, however, is the fact that there isn't a true lead dog among the running backs just yet.

Senior Phillip Tanner was the starter going into last season after running for 714 yards and 15 touchdowns (but only 3.8 yards per carry) in 2008. His knee injury in the Raiders' second game, against Memphis, opened the door for D.D. Kyles.

Kyles cruised to sixth in the Sun Belt in rushing with just over 70 yards per game. That average, however, got inflated by a three-game stretch where Kyles gained 427 against FAU, FIU, and ULL, three of the conference's worst run defenses. While all that was happening, the rising junior could only account for three touchdown runs all season.

A third runner, rising sophomore Ben Cunningham, had a pair of 50-yard games which accounted for two-thirds of his 2009 gains. The three-headed committee has coach Rick Stockstill anxious to reduce the running chores allocated to quarterback Dwight Dasher, to the point where he's even threatened to implement some wishbone packages into the Blue Raider playbook.

6. Western Kentucky

Shifty junior Bobby Rainey rambled for 939 yards and six touchdowns last season, fairly impressive figures in an offense where the quarterback, Kawaun Jakes, had only 19 fewer carries than Rainey.

The figures perhaps needed to be a bit better, however, since the pass offense was almost 50 yards per game worse than anyone else in the SBC. Jakes losing the starting QB job and new coach Willie Taggart transitioning the team to a more pro-style offense could both bode well for Rainey's numbers this season.

Taggart was the running backs coach at Stanford last season, and helped turn a 3-star fullback prospect by the name of Toby Gerhart into a Heisman runner-up. The offensive line returning three starters should also be a positive sign.

Unfortunately, there's that whole 20-game losing streak thing to contend with, and ending that should be the first priority for Rainey and the Hilltoppers this season.

7. Arkansas State

The lone departed member of the SBC's top 10 rushers list was ASU's Reggie Arnold, whose 723 yards placed seventh.

In his place, the Red Wolves turn back to rising junior Derek Lawson, who accounted for almost 700 yards himself as a freshman in 2008. Last season, the 5'11", 216-pounder ran for 244 in relief of Arnold.

Games of 76 yards against Mississippi Valley State and 67 against FAU showed that Lawson could still move the sticks when given the opportunity.

This season, four of the five offensive line starters, including All-SBC tackle Derek Newton, return.

Backup Jermaine Robertson, a 230-pound wrecking ball, gained 51 yards on 11 carries. He's noteworthy because none of those carries resulted in lost yardage.

8. Florida International

FIU would easily stand above ASU on this list if they were being led by 2009 team touchdown leader Kendall Berry. His tragic March death deprives the Panthers of their most talented runner.

5'9", 200-pound rising junior Darriet Perry ran for 301 yards last season, but they were hard-fought yards. Another 2.9 yards per carry average will not do the Golden Panther offense any favors.

Perry faces a stiff test from Syracuse transfer Jeremiah Harden, who was the story of the Panthers' Blue & Gold Game in April. His 96-yard game was highlighted by a 69-yard jailbreak.

Harden has the added advantage of familiarity with potential starting quarterback Wesley Carroll, both of whom starred at St. Thomas Aquinas High School in Fort Lauderdale.

If the Panthers aim to improve on last season's 3-9 record, which may be necessary to save coach Mario Cristobal's job, a backfield shakeup may be just what the doctor ordered.

9. Louisiana-Lafayette

The Ragin' Cajuns were snakebitten last season as they searched for a feature back to replace four-year workhorse Tyrell Fenroy. Undrea Sails was averaging 72 yards per game through six games, then suffered a career-ending broken leg. As mentioned in the SBC quarterback rankings, ULL's running backs could only manage five of the Cajuns' 19 touchdown runs last season.

In the search for depth, ULL turns to a diverse group. Robert Walker was expected to be a big contributor as a freshman before the NCAA Clearinghouse threw out his ACT score, making him ineligible for 2009.

Fullback Yobes Walker is the leading returning rusher, recording a 41.2 yards per game average in 2009. The next leading returnee is Brad McGuire, who is transitioning into a running back position after being a designated running quarterback last season. McGuire led the team with seven TD runs.

Other candidates include junior Julian Shankle and sophomore Draylon Booker, who combined for only 29 carries in 2009. Whoever can capture the starting role, their job will be made even more difficult with an offensive line that loses three two-year starters.

Many more Sun Belt teams enter the season with established running backs or deep backfield groups than have veteran quarterbacks. Observers may notice that the spread-happy conference is equipped to become a lot more ground-based in 2010.

Scott Henry covers the MTSU Blue Raiders on his radio show "4 Quarters," airing on WMTS 88.3 FM in Murfreesboro and streaming live at wmts.org. Podcasts may be found at Starr*Rated.

You can also find the show on Facebook and follow Scott's ramblings on Twitter. Give the show a Facebook like and you'll be eligible to join the 4 Quarters Fantasy Football League and potentially win a $25 gift card to Best Buy.

Pictured: Boise State Player standing next to some stupid trophy that probably came as part of a deal with a fat BCS Bowl check for his school.  - Not pictured, any Sun Belt school.

UNT fans seem OK with passing over overtures from the Western Athletic Conference again for the security of the Sun Belt Conference's warm teat.

It seems horrifically poor logic as the Sun Belt is the worst FBS conference out there.

I have to ask, will UNT fans feel the same if UTSA or Texas State gets tabbed as the 9th team by a possibly desperate WAC?

You want an even worse thought, what if UNT blows off the WAC, Texas State or even UTSA gets in, and then they become an SMU sized roadblock of any future UNT WAC admission?

If Texas State were to get in, it could make a lot of sense to block UNT and UTSA.  San Marcos (in the shadow of Austin) is potentially a very tough recruiting position with UTSA in the same conference.  Being in a higher level conference than UNT should allow Texas State to suppliment their recruiting with DFW talent at UNT's expense.

If UTSA gets in Larry Coker and Co. may decide they profit more being the only Texas school in the conference in terms of media and recruiting.  It may give them a better shot to try to be the next Fresno to block other Texas schools.  They also would move ahead of UNT in terms of DFW and Texas recruiting in that scenario.

There is a fair bit of logic for both schools to try to go it alone and to block any other Texas schools joining. They have the budgets to handle the travel.  WAC schools don't want to lose any control of their conference and certainly won't want 2 trips to Texas in anything less than a 12 team conference, so they would likely go along.

Hawaii and Fresno State are still potential BCS busters.  Fresno just needs to learn to play defense again.  Hawaii could be on the cusp of bouncing back...or not.  Still, there is nothing like that in the Sun Belt.  No future BCS checks will be coming down the way.

There is a very real chance that if UNT passes this opportunity up now, it not only may not be offered again, but could also blow up in UNT's face.

Who's to say UNT can get into CUSA?  There is talk of potentially Houston to the Big 12. It is unclear how much of a risk a loss like that or any other CUSA school to a BCS conference might be. If that occurs, why would an eastern leaning CUSA not add old CUSA staple Charlotte over UNT?  They have friends and rivalries. It is already potentially 6-5 for them over UNT in that scenario and that would be before SMU starts campaigning.

Will SMU continue to block UNT in hopes of a MWC implosion and a TCU recovery?

Do I really need to ask that question?

UNT could get permanently blocked by SMU in C-USA and Texas State or UTSA in the WAC.  UNT could be trapped in the Sun Belt forever.

The Sun Belt is STILL the worst FBS conference in America.

The argument of UNT fans against a western movement is that without Boise, the WAC just another Big West, and UNT had an awful time playing those schools.  Players flying west sucked.  No one cared about games against the western schools at UNT (with the lone exception of New Mexico State games) and vice versa.

Even if the media in Texas considers the Sun Belt a joke, the media coverage is better than what UNT had in the Big West.

Their logic is the Sun Belt is better than the Big West.

I would argue that the Big West didn't have two programs the level of Hawaii and Fresno State - and probably didn't have three at the level of Idaho, La Tech, and Nevada -  therefore the WAC is MUCH better than the Big West and today's Sun Belt.

Consider for a second what occurs if the Sun Belt loses Troy and/or MTSU?  What then?

The reality of the Sun Belt is that they are 2 realignment losses from being right back where they were 5 years ago. The Sun Belt is 2 bad days away from being the same old crappy Sun Belt reloading with the ULMs of the world.

A gigantic footprint with nothing to show for it;  The worst FBS conference in America without question.

Heck, if the MAC suddenly gets interested in Western Kentucky, WKU and MTSU could go north! That reported interest by both schools has been out there for years.

You won't see that in the WAC. The odds of Fresno moving up are slim, and the odds of Hawaii moving up are near non-existent.

The WAC "is what it is" and will continue to be that.  It is very counterintuitive, but there is a great deal of stability the WAC can offer UNT and that UNT can offer the WAC.

UNT has the leverage to negotiate a great deal from the WAC.

I totally get the "travel sucks in the west" argument, but the WAC is a little fragile right now.  They have little in terms of TV markets and have the potential of losing regionally isolated La Tech and possibly San Jose State and New Mexico State to high travel costs and poor turnouts.

As the only realistic current FBS team out there the WAC could land (without a MWC collapse) and a school with a large alumni base residing in a huge nationally relevant market, UNT probably has a lot of leverage to push for a better ending position than just team nine in a nine team WAC.

UNT needs to be grabbing UTSA and Texas State as allies.  Without UNT's influence they are in the same boat UNT is and will likely be fighting each other (and UNT) for slot nine in a nine team WAC. 

UTSA and Texas State students have voted to max out their athletic fees at $20 per sememster hour - double what UNT's students voted to do.  Now eventually UNT's athletic budget will surpass both schools' again, but for now UNT is looking at the very real potential that either of those schools has the financial means to pass UNT in competitiveness and national esteem in a superior conference.

Texas State has an enrollment of 30,816; UTSA has an enrollment of 28,955.  I don't know what students were paying at each school before in athletic fees, but mutliplying those numbers out gives potentially a $17-18 Million increase in their athletic budgets.  This will put both schools on the high end of WAC athletic budgets, far ahead of Sun Belt budgets.

With UNT's insistance, negotiations, and coordination, all 3 schools can probably get into the WAC, maximizing UNT's and the central Texas duo's values and making Texas State and UTSA solid allies.  Potentially the three Texas giants could opt as a group to storm CUSA on better terms in 10 years or less, putting their shared alumni bases in signifigant markets -fueled by enrollments of almost 100K - to good use. 

Or they could forget about that and maybe potentially steal a UTEP or even a Houston down the road - collecting large alumni bases for Big TV payouts.  (I call it the long term "Screw SMU" plan.)

Regardless UNT would lead the way... not follow.

UNT's best bet is to use the leverage it has with the WAC (and over UTSA and Texas State) in the pursuit of a split division WAC as the cost of our inclusion.

ULL wants to be with UNT in a higher level conference than ULM. 

Arkansas State has a history with La Tech, ULL, UNT and even with the other former Big west schools.  They may or may not come along.  The Sun Belt could be a lot less ideal for them if WKU and MTSU aren't in it, which is always a looming possibility.

UNT is the key player who could probably get this type of proposal done.  They have the best leverage and the long term relationships with the other schools.

There is no higher profile move than being a "conference maker".  This would put UNT as being perceived at the non-AQ level of delivering the kind of siezmic change that UT threatened to  deliver 2 weeks ago with the Pac-10 flirtation.

If you want to put UNT on the map, this would do it.

UNT could sell the WAC on the idea that they could miss getting the kind of bump that conference needs by adding only 1 team in Texas if they chose the wrong team.

If the WAC adds the wrong Texas school, they could see a landslide erosion with La Tech defecting and NMSU financially imploding.  Then they are REALLY screwed as they would not have any western candidates and would have taken a huge presitge loss.

They have a lot to lose.  UNT has a lot to lose.

When you have these conditions it is easy to see a "win-win" scenario arising.

Rather than waiting for CUSA Godot, it makes a lot more sense to take an immediate WAC bump and use our superior leverage to manufacture a stable division centered around UNT.  Take the best we know we can get, and make it work for UNT.

What would that look like?

After a few weeks of consideration, I think at 12/14 would be the right strategy for UNT and the western WAC schools.

Add the 3 amigos (ULL, UNT, & Arky state – 3 of the 5 schools that tried starting their own conference year ago with La Tech and Lamar) and the two upgrading Southland giants (Texas State and UTSA) with their soon to be huge athletic budgets (for the non-BCS level).

Sacramento State would be the smart play to admit as a non-football member for now in the west. Due to their FBS sized stadium, proximity to Sac State, Fresno State, and Reno they are the western FCS school most likely to be able to move up to the FBS level successfully and quickly.  Sac State offers a nice nationally significant TV designated market area and futher builds the alliance between the WAC and the California State system.

Getting Sac State in for all sports would cut San Jose's budget and help the neighboring SJSU Spartans a bit with attendance.  The western WAC (today's WAC)cannot afford to lose San Jose State in TV terms as the conference has very few markets of note.

Lamar can be left to the Southland or Sun Belt for now.  They offer good insurance in the future.

I think La Tech might get a CUSA invite at some point and at that point UTSA will take their slot for 12 for football, but for now UTSA and Sac State would be non-football members.

Football
WAC Pacific Division
Sac State (Great West for football as they start an FBS transition)
Fresno State
Hawaii
San Jose State
Nevada
Idaho
Utah State

WAC Southwest Division
New Mexico State
North Texas
Texas-San Antonio (GW for football as they complete their FBS startup transition)
Texas State
ULL
Arky State
Louisiana Tech

That gives UNT ideal in division travel and maybe 2 games OOD with western travel in each sport.  Regardless of two trips going "the wrong way", that is MUCH better for UNT than the Sun Belt today in terms of travel costs and Texas media exposure.

Additionally, UNT could smartly insist that its schedule has Hawaii on it each year as a "rivalry game".  I have long thought that would give UNT a state-wide recruiting edge to be able to offer recruits 2 trips to Hawaii in their careers.  Right there UNT would have a permanent edge over UTSA and Texas State in recruiting and esteem. Plus (while I am not sure if in conference includes this) teams that play Hawaii are allowed to play 13 games in a regular season instead of 12.

If UNT pushes for it, it gives the WAC the public relations angle to add upgrading schools like UTSA & Texas State and say "Well...UNT twisted our arm".  They can also mask the fact that the central Texas duo both are upgrading behind the fact both will have athletic budgets at the top of the WAC and they are also being joined by 3 long time FBS members. 

It makes it a lot more of a saleable point in terms of arguing that even though they added upgrading FCS and IAAA schools, they are still better than the MAC and more importantly that they aren't on the same level as the Sun Belt now.

Remember if the Sun Belt loses UNT, ULL, and Arky, they will need to add FCS upgrades too - protecting the WAC's "lead".

It is "Win-win" all around.

Frankly schools in both conferences would benefit from the measure in the long term even if it would be a minor hit in the short term. 

The WAC Southwest Division schools would all have nice travel and good rivals.  The WAC Pacific Division would have the ability to quickly game the attendance numbers to get Sac State moved up to FBS - potentially helping stabilize a key at risk school like San Jose State.

(Sac State is two hours from Reno and San Jose State and 3 hours from Fresno, so if those 3 WAC schools and Hawaii did schedule home and home games with Sac State with the idea of gaming the NCAA system and pushing Sac State up in short order, they could get it done. Those 4 WAC schools could fill that 21K stadium twice a year. Assuming 6 home games with 9,935 in the other 4 games - and it should be more in the GW as Sac State is totally isolated in the Big Sky - that would give Sac State an average attendance of 13,623 per game. That isn’t hitting the multi-year 15,000 or so that is technically officially needed, but it isn’t far off and if they hit something north of there, would probably be enough to satisfy the NCAA.)

This deal takes the WAC out of the danger zone in the short term.

In the long term, both divisions could decide to break away into seperate conferences at a future date to give berth to extra shared bowl games if they chose.

The Sun Belt would lose some schools, but they are considered the worst FBS conference out there, so they have no stature to lose.  They would likely add Georgia Southern and Jacksonville State (and maybe FAMU or Lamar) ramping up rivalries and potentially dramatically improving the footprint in terms of travel costs.

Time to Think Big

UNT has a lot of leverage over schools like UTSA and Texas State that they likely won't have in 10 years time when the next wave of realignment may hit.

If a school has this kind of potential realignment leverage ---and I think UNT does --- I think it will always be a mistake not to use it.

It is time for UNT fans to think big. Our school needs us to push it to become a leader and not a follower at the FBS level.