North Texas Mean Green Football

Once more there are rumors and speculation that Boise State may jump to the Mountain West Conference.

If this occurs, the WAC should really consider offering a slot to North Texas.

I can hear the groans across WAC-land: "North Texas? We already tried that—and they turned us down!  Plus they suck at football now! Why would we want to offer them a slot again?"

Well, because times change. If Boise leaves, the WAC will need UNT for public relations purposes.  

The hurdles that prevented UNT joining are gone now. UNT can now afford the travel, and, perhaps most importantly, the WAC has the leverage to force UNT to accept now.

The WAC with Boise

With Boise, the WAC is just a hair's breadth behind the MWC in the pursuit of the BCS's 7th Automatic Qualifier Conference slot. 

In an ideal scenario for the WAC, the MWC would see Utah join the Pac-10 and BYU join the Big 12, leaving only TCU carrying the weight for the MWC.  At that point the WAC would hope Boise would not jump to the MWC with TCU, instead showing extreme loyalty to the WAC. (How likely is that?)

The trouble with this scenario is that it entirely hinges on the idea that Utah will be able to land 10 affirmative votes from the leaders of the 10 Pac-10 schools.  Remember, these are the schools that hemmed and hawed about adding Colorado when they were a very strong football program and could not get the votes for UT or Texas A&M.  UT and A&M could not clear the Stanford/Cal/USC triple hurdle (Colorado eventually did). Those are two public Ivy's and a third school not far from that caliber.

With that in mind, is it reasonable to consider Utah a done deal just so the Pac-10 can get a title game? Maybe not.

That puts it back to a duel between the MWC and the WAC.

The trouble is that the MWC is seen as a conference with 3 good BCS caliber teams, while the WAC is seen as a one horse conference. The BCS group that would ultimately decide on whether either conference would get that berth would likely feel pressure to admit the MWC that they wouldn't feel to admit the WAC.

Even if Boise makes a title run this year or falls just short, what is to prevent the MWC from just adding Boise and killing the WAC's hopes?

Now, one can imagine scenarios where BYU and Utah are raided and TCU and Boise defect to a new SWC conference comprised of western CUSA schools that would be the new conference pushing for BCS inclusion. 

That is a scenario that could have the WAC in line to land the 6 "bottom feeders" from the MWC -something that would not help the WAC towards BCS inclusion, but would at least stabilize the conference, add TVs, and cut travel.

But that could also have the WAC raided of Fresno State and Nevada by those bottom feeders, putting the remaining WAC schools in a situation where the conference falls below the Sun Belt in terms of perception and they might be entirely reliant upon FCS upgrades to rebuild.

Overall, it seems likely that the WAC's strong BCS standing seems a bit of an illusion and their stability as a conference may be as well.

The WAC without Boise

So let's assume Boise is gone. What does the WAC have at that point?

Liabilities: An enormous footprint, few media markets, dissatisfied members looking for an out, and the black eye of not being strong enough or unified enough to retain its membership.

Assets: Higher athletic budgets than the Sun Belt Conference, higher attendance averages, and an edge in perception about the caliber of play in the WAC over that in the Mid-American Conference and the Sun Belt due to historic football performance, even if the current performance levels as measured by the Sagarin ratings  (outside of Boise) are disturbingly similar.

The biggest tumblers remaining

There would be two noteworthy realignment tumblers left in the WAC—Fresno State and Louisiana Tech.

The MWC could offer a slot to Fresno if they chose, but Fresno hasn't played defense in almost a decade and as such thier win total doesn't offer the ratings boost they once would. 

Additionally, it seems that, in general, membership in conferences do not like killing other conferences.  The presidents and athletic directors realize that conditions change and that people change jobs.  The person their decision screws today could be the person whose vote or influence they need tomorrow. 

I think, even if the MWC goes to 12 teams, it is very unlikely that Fresno gets the call.

La. Tech is another story though. No better conference appears poised to consider adding La. Tech, rather the threat is that there may be a desire by Tech to leave a weakened WAC.

CUSA considered them a contender for a slot the last time they expanded, but the school reportedly was third in CUSA's eyes, behind eventual #12 UTEP and runner up UNT.  In the event of a new SWC emerging out of CUSA West, La Tech could be considered but, in truth, like most other candidates they don't bring a ton of assets to the table today.

The concern the WAC should have is the possibility that La. Tech might swallow their pride and join the Sun Belt.  Or the MAC if they really still don't want to consider a future with ULM. 

That would dispel the illusion of WAC superiority and would almost definitely relegate the WAC to adding an FCS upgrade—a move that would be a second blow to that illusion.

La. Tech would seem to be the school with the leverage if Boise leaves.   La. Tech could very well say, "add another school or we are going to the MAC". 

The MAC has a slight edge over the other two conferences in terms of athletic budgets.  This could push the MAC ahead of the other two in esteem.

What happens then?

The last time the WAC looked to expand, they had very few options that they considered good options.  UNT was their first choice, as the Denton, TX school has a lengthy history as an FBS school and at the time had a very accomplished FBS football program.

At the time, UNT had about a $13M athletic budget despite it's enrollment of 34,000, due to no permanent student athletic fee.  With a small budget and no way to make up shortfalls, UNT decided that a move to a conference with few media markets, later starting games, less media, and big travel costs like the WAC was beyond their ability to manage.

The WAC possibly could have considered Arkansas State or ULL, but both schools increased the travel footprint and added no significant media markets.

With no better FBS options, the WAC was forced to take on Idaho, a school that did not add any media markets of note and that the schools at the top of their conference did not want.

As much as they might not have wanted to add Idaho, the options were to stay at 8—
revealing how little lure the conference possessed, add Idaho, or do what the top WAC schools felt would have been degrading their conference—add an all-sports FCS member school like Montana (assuming they could upgrade without Montana State.)

Without Boise, today the options would be pretty similar.

Without Boise, the WAC's dreams of being an automatic qualifier conference are dead, so then the conference goals should logically become maintaining their status and adding more TV relevance to their conference while not expanding travel costs too much.

When you add those factors together, even with the slow pace of Todd Dodge's rebuilding effort of the football program Darrell Dickey built up and then tore down, UNT is still one of the few new candidates that make sense for the WAC.

North Texas has been an FBS school forever.  Their financials are headed in the right direction. They are based in a recruiting hotbed.  They give La. Tech one "short trip" in conference. 

They are a very good basketball school, even if attendance lags. Their facilities have all been upgraded withing the last 10 years. 

They have a new high profile 30,000 seat football stadium (The nation's first LEED - "green" - stadium designed by the guys who designed the Dallas Cowboys' Billion Dollar "Jerry Dome".) that will be ready to go in 2011.

They have one of the largest alumni bases in Dallas/Fort Worth, meaning they have a lot of TV potential in one of the nation's largest markets.

UNT now has a dedicated athletic budget that they can raise bit by bit over the years until it reaches the state maximum of $20 per semester hour.  When you multiply that by 34,000 students, it is entirely likely that, if admitted to the WAC, UNT would have the largest athletic budget in the WAC by 2025 or so.

That alone greatly increases the odds of UNT joining and makes UNT a far better candidate today than they were a few years ago.

The importance of athletic budgets

Athletic budgets are vastly underrated by fans in looking at realignment.  Louisville had the largest athletic budget among non-BCS schools last time there was a major realignment and that was a big part of why Louisville's inclusion into the Big East was never an issue despite comparatively unimpressive academics. 

Louisville spent so much money, they were able to build up strong programs with strong fan followings in football and basketball.  It doesn't take much thought to realize athletic budgets are a key to being competitive in multiple sports.  You have to be able to offer similar benefits to your prospective recruits vs. what the schools you compete against offer their recruits.

The WAC has a number of schools with limited athletic budgets. Budgets at schools like La. Tech, New Mexico State, Utah State, and San Jose State are below the WAC average, some of them well below.

This, combined with the travel costs schools like La. Tech and New Mexico State endure, limits their competitiveness. 

This has been helped some by BCS revenues Boise & Hawaii have brought in, but when you get down to it, that share of Boise and Hawaii's BCS money may only push one of these schools into the black for a year.  It is not enough to help them be competitive over multiple years.

How UNT could fit into a larger WAC strategy of acquiring markets and football programs at schools with large athletic budgets.

The WAC has a hammer to use on UNT this time around—UTSA, led by Head Coach Larry Coker.  UTSA will be adding football and has a very high profile, BCS elite-caliber coach in Larry Coker.  They have already secured football series with a number of BCS schools and have the interest of media outlets around the state. 

Their students have already voted to max out the $20 per semester hour student athletic fee and the school has an enrollment of just under 30,000, meaning they could potentially enter the WAC with the conference's largest athletic budget. 

They have an empty pro stadium and no pro competition.

It is entirely possible that they will be the rare upgrade school that doesn't have to do its time in a Sun Belt level conference.

Any addition of Texas schools that includes an addition of Larry Coker is immediately media-defensible for the WAC.

UNT's AD Rick Villareal would be risking an uprising if he turns down the WAC and they offer a slot to UTSA or slots to UTSA and Texas State.

The WAC could try telling UNT that the Mean Green are their first choice, but if UNT turns it down, UTSA will get the slot.

Mean Green alumni are not unified on much of anything, but the idea of UTSA or Texas State passing them by for a better conference would galvanize them like nothing else could.

Going further, it would make a lot of sense for the WAC to offer both UNT and the upgrading Texas Southland trio slots to allow the conference to split into two separate divisions.  This would dramatically cut travel costs for their poorer members. 

UNT could not allow three upgrading Texas schools to pass them by for a more highly regarded conference any more than they could stomache one doing it.

UNT, Texas State, and UTSA would give the WAC 3 schools with large alumni bases in three of the top four DMAs in Texas.  Lamar is not in the Houston DMA (the fourth), but they are close enough to that DMA that, over time, the WAC might become relevant in that DMA.

This does a number of things.  First, it offers the chance for the WAC to develop strong audiences in good TV markets.  If, for example, UNT or UTSA take off and dominate the division, you could see their fan bases suddenly start delivering very good ratings in those markets, as the conference they are in has some credibility.  Adding a single school makes the success or failure of the expansion entirely based on a coaching staff.  This helps the odds.

Adding the four schools pretty much ensures at least one will do well and the rest will fight like hell not to be seen as the weak link.

Also, keep in mind those schools would give the WAC about 100,000 students in Texas.  That is an enormous combined alumni base.  It is not inconceivable that the WAC could develop a statewide following in Texas in 10 years or so.

The travel for at-risk members La. Tech (a potential defector) and New Mexico State (potential for a cost saving downgrade to FCS) would be immediately cut and both programs would likely see a major bump in Texas recruiting, helping them compete. 

San Jose State would also see a drop in their travel costs with split divisions.  That is a lot better than just getting back to nine members and still having crushing travel costs and little TV revenue.

Cutting travel costs plus potentially adding what might be $1-2M of added TV revenue to each school's bottom line could offer the WAC long term stabilization.

Selling it to the public (and not losing face) and (potentially) taking it a step further

When you get down to it, it is what it is.  I am advocating adding an FCS school and two IAAA start-ups as well as an FBS bottom feeder.

That said, it is immensely spinnable.

If the WAC were to focus on Larry Coker, the athletic budgets (UTSA, Texas State, and UNT should have the 3 largest budgets in the WAC by 2025 allowing them to compete at the highest level in the WAC in all sports), the stadiums (all either top notch or being upgraded), and the TV potential, this is a solution that is saleable in terms of Fresno, Hawaii, and Nevada saving face. 

It is not like adding an upgrading ULM (like the Sun Belt once had to) or a Montana/Montana State duo (another WAC option that offers no media bang).

With UNT moving over, I think that move could be spun to be seen as the WAC still being a cut above the MAC and Sun Belt.

For most readers this would be a big enough move.

For most, this would be a big enough move; It is a major move that is an appropriate solution to address a possible conference collapse.  Further action to most might be seen as overkill (as if this wasn't already). 

I get that, but I personally would argue for taking it a step further.

By really hammering on markets and athletic budgets as what ought to be focused on by fans, it offers the potential to further obfuscate the fact that the WAC would be adding upgrading schools  - and it would allow adding additional members from that lower level as non-football members.

I would suggest moving to a hybrid conference format with 12 football playing members and 16 total all sports members.

It would cut travel further in other sports, get the WAC brand showcased in other major markets, and set up potential upgrade members.

I would advocate adding Portland State, Sacramento State, Northern Arizona, and Denver as non-football members. (PSU, UNA, and SAC State could play FCS ball in the Great West.  That conference would likely go along as it would allow the Great West to have an auto-bid to the FCS playoffs.)

By not adding them as football members, the WAC could sidestep any stigma from adding them.  As the WAC should be able to offer better money than their current situations as well as offering those schools hope for a better future, it seems unlikely that any of the schools would decline.

Attendance guidelines, arena minimums, and marketing budget minimums to drive ticket sales growth could be requirements of admission and retaining membership.

Pacific division
Hawaii
San Jose State
Fresno State
Nevada
Idaho
Utah State
Portland State (non-football)
Sacramento State (non-football)

Southwest division
New Mexico St.
Texas St.
UTSA
UNT
Lamar
La. Tech
Denver (non football)
UNA (non football)

These four schools would give the WAC varying levels of media penetration into the Portland, Sacramento, Phoenix, and Denver DMAs.  Combining that with the San Francisco, DFW, San Antonio, and Austin DMAs would give the WAC a real chance to generate money as these programs grow.

With membership in a greater athletic conference and revenue dispersal from a TV deal of presumably some value, the potential exists for Sac State or PSU—
two somewhat forgettable FCS football programs—to find their financial feet. 

It would dramatically increase the chance that one or both might one day move up to the FBS level (both have 20K stadiums), funnelling even more money into the conference and in the case of Sacramento State, helping neighboring San Jose State's finances—a team pretty important to the conference's bottom line. 

==Breaking news: Pac-10 rumored to be preparing to add 6 Big 12 schools .  A change that major could have ripples affecting all conferences below.==

Phil Steele's pre-season all-Sun Belt Team came out and had a huge surprise for Mean Green fans.

Riley Dodge is a pre-season second team all-Sun Belt receiver.

What?  Yes, exactly.

Steele generally does a great job with his Sun Belt picks so this was a total head scratcher.

UNT had 3 receivers on his all-Sun Belt team.  Jamaal Jackson was a first team pick and Tyler Stradford was a third team pick.

UNT's offense will feature a lot of one TE and 3 WR sets, so much so that 3 WRs will be the defacto base set.

After watching the spring game I certainly can beleive Stradford will be the team's deep threat.  I can buy he will beat out Mike Outlaw for the third receiver spot and even that he might land on a post season all-Sun Belt team. 

I just can't buy that Riley Dodge is going to displace last year's second leading receiver Darius Carey in the starting lineup and catch the 60 balls or so Dodge would need to make the second team.

To me, Carey appeared to be emerging as the teams's go-to receiver.

Riley Dodge is not a big play receiver.  I thought Riley Dodge was the 5th to 7th best WR on the field in the spring.  I think he will be a quality starter by his senior year as he works on his craft, but he just isn't there yet.

Plus, this is not the Dodge offense that Riley knows like the back of his hand, so there is no familiarity bump. This is an offense where everyone is learning it from scratch.

Additionally this team today is loaded with more developed and talented receivers than Riley Dodge.

Last season Jackson made Steele's all-Sun Belt first team and Carey the Steele's all-Sun Belt third team.

If this isn't a brainfart by Steele that had him typing in the wrong name, this is really puzzling.

One can only hope that Steele has no respect for Todd Dodge as a coach and as such has made this pick expecting the coach to inflict a cataclysmic bad decision on his team fuelled by out of control nepotism.

Other Thoughts

My gut impressions are that FAU's Jeff VanCamp, might be slightly overrated and Dasher might not end up the first team all-Sun Belt QB, but it does kind of look like a changing of the guard in terms of QBs, so maybe by default Dasher ends up there.

I do think the kid from WKU, Kawaun Jakes, could suprise if WKU digs up a WR. I think he is much better than people give him credit for and the WKU offense could take a major step forward behind their new coach and a very good RB in Bobby Rainey.

UNT Players on the Phil Steele Pre-season teams

First team
WR Jamaal Jackson, North Texas
OG Kelvin Drake, North Texas
OT Esteban Santiago, North Texas
DT Shavod Atkinson, North Texas
LB Craig Robertson, North Texas

Second Team
RB Lance Dunbar, North Texas
WR Riley Dodge, North Texas
DE Brandon Akpunku, North Texas

Third Team
WR Tyler Stradford, North Texas
OT Victor Gill, North Texas
PR Darius Carey, North Texas
MLB AJ Penson, North Texas
S DaWaylon Cook, North Texas
P Will Atterberry, North Texas

Fourth Team
C JJ Johnson, North Texas
CB Royce Hill, North Texas

It was interesting to see all 4 of UNT's returning starting offensive linemen on the all conference teams, and pretty highly ranked in that. They may be an elite pass blocking unit, but their run blocking is going to have to get a lot better in short yardage situations for me to buy that those honors are deserved (with the exception of Santiago who has been a beast the past).  Still I am pretty optimistic about improvement on the line myself.

I am very surprised that as well as Hill and Jackson did as kick returners last year neither made even the 4th team. Likewise Carey as a punt returner was somewhat unexpected - a consolation prize for being left off the WR list, or something? (Come to think of it, that would be a good role for Riley this year. We need someone with great football instincts and hands in that role more than we need a burner.)

The UNT secondary picks seemed about right.

Atkinson hopefully will have his breakout year. Akpunku's sack total could have him on the second team.

I found the linebacker picks interesting. I hope Craig Robertson might play like a first team all-sun belt linebacker, but that would be a big step up. When I watch him I don't see a very active player.  Steele has always seemed a little bit infatuated with him.  It was interesting to see AJ Penson on the third team all-Sun Belt list. I thought he was a very solid run stuffer last year when he got into the starting lineup.  I apparently was not alone.

Based on what I have seen so far, I am going to make some predictions for the what Phil Steele will likely have on his post-season list.  I think it is entirely likely that 2-3 of the new JUCO guys emerge in the fall as good starters, but for now I am not going to consider them.

Predictions on UNT players on the end of season Steele teams

First team
RB Lance Dunbar, North Texas
WR Darius Carey, North Texas
OT Esteban Santiago, North Texas
KR Jamaal Jackson, North Texas

Second Team
WR Jamaal Jackson, North Texas
DT Shavod Atkinson, North Texas
KR Royce Hill, North Texas

Third Team
WR Tyler Stradford, North Texas
OG Kelvin Drake, North Texas
OT Victor Gill, North Texas
DE Brandon Akpunku, North Texas
P Will Atterberry, North Texas
LB Brad Graham, North Texas
LB Jason Philips, North Texas
S Ira Smith, North Texas

Fourth Team
QB Nathan Tune, North Texas
C JJ Johnson, North Texas
LB Craig Robertson, North Texas
CB Royce Hill, North Texas
S DaWaylon Cook, North Texas

I am hoping for solid play up front that will allow our back seven to shine, but if UNT again cannot hold the line of scrimmage, I could see most of the players on my 3rd and 4th team lists falling out of consideration.

I think the back seven is going to be very solid if a good starting CB pair emerges. There probably won't be quite this many players on the all-conference teams as wins often dictate recognition and I don't see this team winning 10 games or anything like that, but these guys seem pretty likely to be in the conversation. 

I also am hoping that Jackson stays on kick returns, which may not occur.

I also think Freshman K Zach Olen might be pretty good if the blocking is not suspect this year. 

Honestly I don't see star talent on this defense THIS year, but I see guys who could be very good players this year at most spots.  There is enough talent that this defense should be at least average.

I would not be suprised to see either Kelvin Jackson or John Webber emerge as an all- conference fourth team candidate at DT this year.

As much as I like Penson and consider him a very solid, veteran, run-stuffing MLB,  UNT has 4 guys right now who all look like solid starters competing for 3 positions.  I think he might see more bench time as DC Gary DeLoach tries to get big playmakers Phillips and Graham lots of snaps.

Really a lot could change in the fall with the incoming players and some JUCO guys already here adjusting. There is a lot of talent in the new recruits.  A couple of those guys could emerge too.

I struggled with writing this article because I do have a lot of respect for the coaching staff and the decision of who to start at QB is really best made as an internal decision by the staff with as little outside cheerleading as possible.

That said, I do think it is good to have the logic of all choices traced out somewhere, so you can make your own analysis of the benefits that starting each player offers.

There are arguments for each QB.  I will admit to having a preference, based off my analysis.  I happen to firmly believe the better arguments by a wide margin are for Nathan Tune to start, but with any competition, you have to look at what they do on the field first and foremost.  Still, it is good to understand the ramifications. 

Let's start with a breakdown of each QB.

Nathan Tune: The Known Commodity, the Game Manager

Thompson advocates try to paint the competition as a matchup between two totally unproven players.  That is not intellectually honest.

Tune was effectively a part-time starter last year, playing in five games and starting and finishing the two games against the toughest competition on the schedule.  He played in just under half the games on the schedule last year and put up a better QB rating than Riley Dodge.

Tune threw five TDs with two interceptions and one fumble lost last year.

I laid out a game-by-game breakdown of Tune's play last season in the Riley Dodge article.

Statistically, Tune had solid days in his two starts against Troy (148 QB rating) and Alabama (129 QB rating)—the two most talented defenses on the schedule last year. 

His games in relief were quite good as well. 

Against Ohio, he overcame an interception right after coming into the game and directed the offense pretty competently.  There were no turnovers after that and Tune had two perfectly thrown game-winning passes dropped in the end zone.

Against Florida Atlantic he came in with UNT down 27-19 and lead UNT to outscore FAU  21-17 while he was in the game.

Against Arkansas State, Tune came in with the team down 14-0, and although it was not his strongest game, the team outscored the opposition 20-16 before Tune was knocked out with a separated shoulder.

While close misses don't equate to wins, he consistently took care of the ball, played well, and the offense played well with him on the field in spite of the offense not being in any way tailored for his skills. 

That is a very respectable resume from last season, which suggests his high school resume is no fluke, either.

Tune carried his high school team to a 16-0 record, a 46.1 PPG scoring average, and a state championship in his senior year. He showed he can run a potent, mistake-free offense.

Derek Thompson: The Unknown Dripping with Potential, the Gunslinger

Thompson came in versus Arkansas State in the last game of the year and drove UNT right down the field for a TD on 3-for-3 passing.

His confidence is clearly much higher this year from that experience, a strong offseason, and (presumably) the confidence in Thompson and Tune by the coaching staff that the move of Riley Dodge to wide receiver suggests.

Thompson's high school highlights suggest his game looks a lot like Tim Tebow's.  A lot of UNT fans have joined the Thompson camp off entusiasm over those highlights.

Thompson is a big guy at 6'4" and probably around 230 lbs now.  He was a very effective runner in high school, consistently getting the ball upfield for nice gains when his receivers were covered.  As a prospect he was reported to have 4.7 speed.

It is very reasonable to expect Thompson to be able to gain a few tough yards on the ground with some regularity.  That would be a great complement to Dunbar, who is a big play runner but was lacking last year in tough yardage situation.

As a passer, Thompson shows a solid arm, much better than Riley Dodge's, but perhaps not as good as Tune's.

Thompson throws with a very high overhead release.  That is great.

I am a little concerned whether he gets set in a firm base to throw from, though, as I did see him get unbalanced by a weak touch from defender in the spring game.  Was that just a fluke, or a sign that he has something wrong with his footwork?  I'll have to see more of him to reach a conclusion there.

Thompson does a good job of placing the ball comfortably ahead of his receivers over the middle.  He oozes "gunslinger".   One gets the feeling he would be perfectly content running those types of 20-40 yard pass plays over and over.

The "Keep Todd Dodge Employed" Part of the Season

The first eight games of the season are vitally important for UNT.

Sept. 4: at Clemson
Sept. 11: Rice
Sept. 18: at Army
Sept. 25: at Florida Atlantic
Oct. 2: Louisiana-Lafayette
Oct. 9: Arkansas State
Oct. 16: Florida International (Homecoming)
Oct. 30: at Western Kentucky
------------
Nov. 6: Troy
Nov. 13: at Middle Tennessee
Nov. 20: at Louisiana-Monroe
Nov. 27: Kansas State

Dodge and company absolutely need to go no worse than 5-3 in their first eight games to stay employed here. If Thompson blows one or two of those games that they need to win, the staff is probably gone.

Thompson hasn't played against elite BCS level talent and done OK like Tune has. Tune was consistently productive last year versus a variety of teams.

Thompson represents a gamble that Tune does not.

Most first year starters make a lot of mistakes by gambling when they shouldn't. That leads to big point swings and momentum changes.  Riley Dodge was a perfect example of that last year (although a strong argument could be made that the coaching staff repeatedly asked him to do more than they should have and never worked out his obvious problem areas).

I don't think you can afford to subject what has been an emotionally fragile team in UNT's recent history to another progression of game-changing turnovers in this make-or-break year.

Thompson is far more likely to throw the big momentum-changing interception on UNT's side of the field or to fumble.

UNT is far more likely to be turnover prone like last season with him in. There is too much riding on the first two-thirds of the season to pass up consistently good QB play for likely inconsistent play.

"Flavor of the Week" Thinking

One of the prominent ideas for going with Thompson is that he is a new face.

It is foolish to make changes just because you want to see someone new. You either need to take a sizable step forward with a replacement or you want to play the guy who is least likely to hurt you with mistakes.

The problem with this argument is that there doesn't seem to be a sizable talent difference between the two.

The Future Benefits Argument

There is an argument that Thompson should be started as he has a higher ceiling than Tune due to his running ability and it would help his development in future years.

That logic is almost entirely based on future benefits. If Dodge is fired, who is to say the new coach likes Thompson? Maybe they won't get along. Maybe they have different philosophies. Maybe the new coach is an option guy and goes with Chase Bain or a new recruit. Or maybe Thompson suffers an injury that compomises his talent and his career like Riley did.

Then any benefit from playing Thompson is totally moot. Then anything you lose by starting him this season has been blown for no reason.

There is a lot of unnecessary risk with the idea of opening the season with Thompson.

We have no idea if Thompson is the kind of all-star talent who can step in and play at a top level, or if he is a standard good prospect who will make lots of mistakes his first year playing.

If you start Thompson and he isn't where he needs to be yet and he struggles, not only might that slow his development down the road, it could cost the staff a couple of winnable games. And there is not enough cushion to be able to risk that, in my opinion.

How does he respond if he spits the bit in the first couple of games and you have to bring in Tune? Does Thompson go into a shell? Does it affect his long term development? You don't have these questions if you run with Tune early.

The logical path says you start Tune unless he plays absolutely miserably in the new offense.

Now, with that said, Canales went with a young guy in Arizona and Dodge went with two here so far. None of those situations really worked out for them all that well, but that brain trust does hit me as guys who gamble on their feelings rather than generally play it safe and taking the odds.

Fall-back Positions: One of the Most Telling Arguments

The problem with starting Thompson is that he has to be great from day one to prevent an uprising and gunslingers are rarely good from day one.  Gunslingers have to learn by experience what they cannot get away with at the college level.

Add in the fact that a proven competent game manager is sitting on the bench behind him and that the team probably has to win at least five of their first eight games, and the pressure  on Thompson could be similar to what Head Coach Todd Dodge felt making the FG call versus Army last year.

You could see a similar Thompson vapor-lock and implosion.

Let's say you start Thompson against Clemson and he gets eaten alive by the superior speed of their secondary.  Does that put a shaken Thompson on the field for Rice?  Does is give future opponents a game plan on how to attack him?

Some have offered that you feed Tune to Clemson and let Thompson start the next week at Rice.  Well, there are problems there as well.  Based on Tune's history versus top-notch defenses at Alabama and Troy, it is entirely likely that Tune will show competent play. And with Canales' apparent willingness to go deep more and competence in deep play design, Tune may even throw a pair of TDs.

It might be pretty reasonable to expect Tune to complete 60 percent of his passes for 200 yards, two TDs and no interceptions or turnovers.

That is a pretty solid day against a good defense.  Now as that logic goes, would you bench Tune and start Thompson after that?

Considering how Tune was utilized as a tackling dummy against tough opposition last year, Tune advocates on the team would likely take a lot of umbrage to Tune being used that way again this year.  One week into the season you'd have a split team, right as your run of must-win games begins.

It just seems like very bad coaching logic.

Tune seems like the smart play in week one and, based off likely decent play versus Clemson, in future weeks.

It is very likely that if Canales and staff go with Tune, he is not likely to play himself out of the starting job. It's more likely that Thompson will need to play his way into the job by matching or exceeding Tune's level of play.

Frankly, that is a good scenario for UNT.

It seems very sensible to allow Tune to get the majority of the snaps in the first eight games at least, with Thompson coming in when opportunity allows to get experience against defenses that have not prepared for him.

If something unlikely happens, like Tune trying to make a lot of foolish plays and totally self-destructing in the first eight games, Thompson can come in as the team's savior. Regardless of how he plays in that scenario, he will have the whole team with him.

That is another better scenario for UNT.

If the team wins, say, six games out of the first eight, Dodge and Co. could potentially give Thompson the start against Kansas State and Troy, two of the toughest games on the schedule. This will give him good experience for next year and keep the slightly built Tune upright for a possible bowl game.

Again, things work out optimally for the coaching staff if Tune wins the job.  They have much better options in that scenario.

Another Possibility for Effective QB Play: A Two-QB System

Platooning QBs almost never works because the reason for platooning is never clearly laid out to the players. Most coaches execute platooning based on "gut feelings".

Without clear reasons for the substitutions explained to the team, the players choose sides and spend time and energy that should be focused on the next opponent thinking and talking about who should play QB and which QB is being given a raw deal. It almost always turns into a QB controversy on teams flirting with losing records.

In general I don't like platooning QBs, but I think UNT could employ it to good effect this year. Both QBs offer somewhat complementary skills that could be smartly employed to overcome specific scenarios.

Tune is the rare combination of a very good game manager with the arm to go deep with some accuracy.  When he is on the field, the offense doesn't turn the ball over much.

Thompson offers a short yardage rushing threat and a QB that would help cover up the comparative softness of Lance Dunbar in short yardage situations. (Keep in mind we could see a much tougher running Lance Dunbar next year.  Last year he simply lacked the lower body strength, the technique to finish runs, and the determination to gain the extra yard when hit within a few yards of the line of scrimmage.  All of that could change this year.)  Pairing Dunbar with a bull of a hard running QB who runs north-south between the tackles is a pretty compelling strategy for piling up first downs.

I think an idealized rotation could have Tune taking the team from the kickoff and taking them up and down the field.  Tune's superior ability to throw accurate bombs and short passing without turnovers would be well-utilized.

In short yardage situations on the opponent's side of the field and occasionally in favorable positions inside the 20, Thompson could come in to play QB, giving the team's running game a real boost in those situations.

Thompson's strengths, running and throwing a catchable, accurate 25-40 yard pass down the middle of the field, would be showcased while his likely weaknesses (turnovers in the UNT side of the field) would be moot. 

Bringing in Thompson in those situations is a better solution than taking out a QB and bringing in Jeremi Mathis in the Wildcat set. (I'd still like to see the Mathis Wilcat in short yardage situations on UNT's side of the field though.)

That would put both QBs in a good position to succeed.  It would eliminate the chances of Thompson serving up easy scores in the UNT side of the field, while allowing UNT to take advantage of his skills in short yardage situations and get him experience.

Considering neither of these guys thought they'd be playing at all, the QBs would be a lot more likely to sign on with it than most dueling QBs.

It would likely also help both stay healthy and, in case of an injury, UNT would be able to roll out a QB who isn't either totally rusty or totally inexperienced.

UNT fans look at Thompson as the long-term future. I agree with that, but I think you shouldn't compromise the short-term future to get there.

This is a workable potential plan, as it minimizes risk this year. And Thompson is going to be about the same QB next season if he throws 60 passes in crucial situations or 350 in all situations this year.

There Are Plenty of Options, But the Better Ones Involve Tune Starting

The best options for UNT likely involve Tune opening the season as the team's starter.

With that said, this quarterback duel is like any other open competition for a spot. If one player greatly outplays the other, that player should start.

Having watched these guys, I suspect the competition will be close until the decision is made.  If that is the case,  I hope I have laid out why starting Tune would make more sense in that scenario.

Regardless of who wins the job, I'll be out there cheering for the team and all UNT fans should be.

I don't know how you fans of other teams endure a constant stream of that.

OK. It wasn't THAT bad. 

In fact if I were to be really honest, I'd have to admit I actually kind of enjoyed it and wouldn't mind seeing more of it in the fall. (And don't worry UNT fans there actually was an interception of one of the deep bench quarterbacks late in the game, so we still hit quota...)

Although the final score was only North 17-South 14, it was a pretty watchable game.

The QB Duel

Really nothing appeared to be decided in this game in terms of the quarterbacks and that's probably how things should be at this point. The spring game is likely just viewed as another day of practice by the staff and while a good performance could give any player some real momentum to earn playing time, they still need to prove themselves every day in practice to back that up.

Both quarterbacks, senior Nathan Tune and sophomore Derek Thompson, looked solid.  Proponents of each could make an argument that their guy showed slightly more.

Each threw a TD pass and went the night without being intercepted, although it was against a defense that is missing it's likely three top cornerbacks, one of their likely top-four safeties, and was pretty thin at defensive end.

Thompson completed 14 of 24 for 58 percent and 234 yards (9.75 yards per attempt), while Tune completed 11 of 19, also for 58 percent,  for 181 yards (9.52 yards per attempt).

Tune's North squad opened the game with a field goal fueled by Tune's 32-yard pass to WR Darius Carey. The series teatured Tune playing with the first-team offensive against the first-team defense.

Thompson's South squad came back immediately going right down the field. His second-team offense ate up the second team defense.

Thompson looked cool, calm and collected. He seemed to casually toss the ball 30-40 yards down the field.

It appeared that throwing the mid-to-deep pass over the middle of the field is his comfort zone. He looked almost too casual dropping back to pass, although one certainly could not argue with the results.

On his first drive, he hit WR Alex Lott in stride accross the middle on a mid-length pass. Lott had a nice run after the catch taking the ball down to the two-yard line. On the next play, backup running back James Hamilton took it in to put the South up 7-3.

Tune and the offense were stopped on the next drive giving Thompson another shot.  Thompson only took three plays to drive the length of the field. He hit two passes for  about 30 yards each and then laid a nice pass perfectly towards the corner of the end zone into the outstretched arms of WR Jamaal Jackson. The South was up 14-3 and it looked like Thompson might run away with the scrimmage.

But that did not happen.

Thompson's South squad would not score again.

Tune threw the pass of the night to get the North within four in the third quarter. Tune dropped back, sensed a little pressure and scrambled forward. He then flipped the ball 55 yards down field in the direction of Tyler Stradford, hitting the 4.41 burner in stride for a 69-yard TD pass.

It was an eye-opening pass. Tune did not appear to throw from a good base as he was on the run. The pass was at an angle, not straight down the field so it was longer than a simple hash-to-hash measurement. That ball was probably in the air 60-65 yards and on target.

Tune had barely overthrown Stradford on what might have been the same play on the last play of the first half.  The Stickman from Celina had the ball in the air for about 50 yards on that play.

The final scoring drive was in a part of the scrimmage where the coaches were working on the running game. Both offenses were running th ball heavily to give the running backs a look. Tune's North squad rode true freshman Brandon Byrd's 9 carries for 50 yards to put together a 79-yard scoring drive.

Tune actually scrambled in for the apparent go ahead score, throwing his hands in the air in excitement only to be called down at the two by the game's very liberal sack rules.  (As close as I could tell if a defender was unblocked or had a free arm within 4 yards of the QB they called it a tackle or a sack.  If the defender was engaged and could not free their arms they could actually hit the QB without it being called a sack.  That lead to one of the funniest moments of the day when DT Shavvod Atkinson got free at the last second and put a hit on Tune in the waning seconds of the first half.  Tune responded by playfully putting Atkinson in a headlock and "roughing him up".  Pretty funny stuff.)

While Tune's North team did win the scrimmage, Thompson's South squad suffered a missed field goal, so it could have easily been a tie on the scoreboard.

Impressions, winners and losers.

Lets start with the QBs. I thought I had totally misjudged Thompson last season. After watching this scrimmage I don't think I did and I feel like I have a pretty good feeling for who he is as a QB today.

He still looks like the same guy from last year, just a lot more confident. Early in the game there seemed to be a palitable feeling of excitement from the fans and his teammates for Thompson. While on one hand, that is always the case for the upstart in a QB duel, there are good reasons to be excited.

Thomspon is prototypical as a QB. Like Tune, he has NFL height at 6'4", but unlike Tune, Thompson is a big kid. He is still listed at his playing weight from last season of 223 pounds, but looks like he weighs in the 230's now.

Anyone who has seen his high school highlights knows he is a physical kid who runs north-south between the tackles.  I was dissapointed not to see any of that yesterday as were several of the fans around me, but with the QB protection rules those runs would have been very short anyway.

Thompson has a very high release. He seems to stretch himself taller right before the ball comes out. It is very much an overhead release very distinctive to the semi-sidearm deliveries we seem to see over and over at UNT. If he wins the job it is unlikely we will see a lot of blocked passes. (In a related note, oddly he had the only blocked pass of the game when 6'1 CB D'Leon McCord came in a very poorly disguised CB blitz.  McCord got a lot of air under him to block that pass.)

I was concerned a bit by the fact that someone got what appeared to be a very light touch on him on a short pass to the runing back and that totally messed up his base sending his pass right into the ground.

From what I saw of his passes last year and yesterday he has a good arm. Last year, UNT fans saw Riley Dodge throwing deep off his back foot and the team's deep passes consistently floated and fell short. Thompson has no problem getting a pass out 40 yards down field to where it is supposed to be in a timely manner. That said, they aren't 40-yard bullets. Thompson is a nice FBS starting QB candidate, but if fans had dreams of John Elway, feggedaboutit.

I spoke with fans at the game and one was a huge Thompson fan. This guy was of retirment age and said he had watched Thompson at all of the team's spring practices.  His impression was that Thompson was the best QB on the roster at leading his receivers. He said Thompson consistently laid the ball out in at arm's length in front of the receiver.

I think that may be true, but I cringed a little watching Thompson's big drives in the first half because I wondered if some of those passes would have been picked off against a starting Sun Belt secondary. Additionally, some of the throws later in the game seemed forced into coverage.

No question, I see a guy who is going to be a very good starting QB for UNT one day, but I worry about turnovers.

Tune had some big moments, but overall didn't play as well as he had in the past. He seemed to struggle a bit after the first drive.

To a degree, early on his receivers didn't help him. They missed two or three mid-range passes they probably should have caught, but to be fair Stradford and Lewis came on late to make some nice plays.

Tune seemed a little off in the first half, but had a nice drive with 22 seconds left in the first half and seemed loose and effective in the second half.

There were times when I was really impressed by Tune's competitiveness. He looked like a real gamer. I liked how he took charge of the team in a drive that ended the first half.  Like with Thompson earlier, the offense seemed to kick up their intensity a bit behind him.

I did see one or two passes that may have been a little forced.  One pass was a high floater that should never have been thrown, which is a bit surprising for Tune. Overall, if I were the arbitrator I think he maintained his slight lead over Thompson he probably has due to his experience.

Other players who had moments

Darius Carley looked bigger than last year and appeared to be making a claim for the No. 1 receiver role. Jamaal Jackson looked the same as last year.

Tyler Stratford caught 3 passes for 111 yards and a TD; Carey caught 4 for 79 yards.

I hoped to see BJ Lewis and/or Tyler Stratford run away from the competition, but neither did.

Both struggled early. Stradford lined up wrong on one play and had to be corrected to line up right next to another WR. The play ended with Tune getting sacked and both WRs being in the same area. I am going to guess he may have run the wrong route.  Certainly, if a staff is going to count on you, you need to line up in the right place. Plus, he dropped a pass in the first half.

Stradford played well in the second half and I suspect the big TD reception will stick in the coaching staff's minds for a while. He is a legitimate deep receiver and a game changing big play threat. Can they really afford to have him sitting on the bench over occasional drops?

Lewis also had a brutal first half. He dropped a pass from Tune in the end zone on the first drive and dropped another pass in the second. Then he caught one only to have it knocked out for a big defensive gain.

He too looked much better after the half.  In the second half, he flashed the same kind of play he showed versus Middle Tennessee last year, looking very much like a hard to cover, reliable, chain moving WR. Still, Lewis doesn't have enough rope to blow his opportunities.

Breece Johnson had a nice game. He had one clear drop, but made some nice catches throughout the game. I think the coaching staff should have this guy at least on the second string ...and use him. This is a senior who can play. Continuing to bury him on the roster for the next flavor of the week will not help this team win and sends a very bad message to upperclassmen. 

If you want leadership from them, you have to recognize good play and reward loyalty, perserverence, and hard work.

The same is true for Benny Jones. He appeared to be a very competent receiver and showed some speed. He should be strongly considered for second string on the outside and should be thrown to deep from time-to-time.

Riley Dodge looked like a third team receiver. The staff appears to be feeding him time to let him adjust so he will have a fair shot at competing for a slot in the rotation. That is fine today, but won't be in the fall. Unless Dodge shows pronounced improvement, putting him in the rotation over players like Johnson, Benny Jones or Lewis would be playing a lesser player.

I think for good team chemistry, Riley probably has to noticably outperform his competition to be in the starting or second unit. If not, there may be grumblings of favortism.  He is not playing at that level yet.

I think Riley will be a very good starting caliber receiver by his senior year, but he isn't there today. His routes need work and he doesn't sell out for the pass like a receiver yet. Additionally, there was a play where he popped a pass from Thompson up in the air and it was almost picked off.  You just can't create potential turnovers like that.

James Hamilton looked very good. I would be suprised if he is not the No. 2 back on this team, even if I think Jeremy Mathis, Brandon Byrd, and Michah Mosley are better talents who would make better feature backs. Byrd looked a lot like Dunbar, except Byrd is smaller. He had a great game, but if it were my call to make I would redshirt him and save his great play for later.

Mosley was somewhat dissappointing. As I sat watching him I felt his confidence has been absolutely shot playing for Coach Dodge. He had a few strong runs and then got stuffed seeming to almost be waiting for the hook to come in from the sidelines.

I am going to rant a little. If Mosley were my son, I'd encourage him to talk to the family lawyer about his options regarding transferring to go play his final year at a FCS or Division II school, perhaps via proposal 2005-54. This dude is a collegiate feature back. Anyone who runs for over 400 yards as a freshman at an FBS school with just under a five-yard per carry average and hasn't suffered a talent compromising injury can be a collegiate featured runner somewhere.

It just isn't going to happen at UNT. Dodge and company clearly like runners with more shake and bake. He doesn't even appear to be on the map as a short yardage runner.

If he played at an FCS or D-II school that believed in power running he could be a threat to break 2,000 yards.

He is apparently in the mix to potentially play H-Back at times. Even if he wins that role, who knows how often they will actually use an H-back? I think in most situations it would be dumb for UNT to pull out a WR or TE in most situations to play an H-back.

There are guys on this team who I feel have a shot to earn the playing time that their talent and play indicates. Alex Lott, Benny Jones, B.J. Lewis, and Stradford all are guys who have the talent to move the chains at this level with a lot of success and might get a pretty good shot at earning playing time this year. With the staff changes, I might include Breece Johnson in that group, but Mosley just won't get the kind of shot (to be a featured back at the collegiate level) here that his talent suggests he may be able to handle.

Dude, I love your talent, but it may be time to look at your options.

The whole game had a lot of hit and miss.

The DE duo of Obi and Akpunku showed some speed in the rush, but looked pretty mediocre against the run.

During the game LaChris Anyiam appeared to be at the end spot and not at tackle where he was reportedly being worked.  John Webber was at DT with the second team though and had a sack.  The defensive staff appears to be cycling any big defensive end they get through a trial run at DT to try and find a good interior pass rusher.  Could Webber be the guy they have long sought? Stay tuned.

DT Shavvod Atkinson looked pretty good. I am still waiting for him to hit the level of greatness though. Kevin Jackson started next to him. He is legitimately the second best DT, but looks to still be carrying too much weight. He really needs to get in better shape to really tap his potential.

None of the four linebackers in the running for starting jobs had amazing days, but OLBs Jeremy Phillips and Craig Robertson looked pretty good. Phillps forced Lewis's fumble that was the biggest play of the day on defense. He also broke up a pass from Tune to Lott.  He is just a playmaker in coverage.

Robertson recovered the Phillips fumble and had a sack of Tune.

I thought Julian Herron may have earned himself some respect from the coaching staff.  He had one series where he was in on every play. He tackled WR Willie Taylor on a short pass from Thomspon on first down. He pressured Thomposn on second down forcing him to throw the ball away. He almost caught the pass Riley Dodge deflected up in the air on third down, and on fourth he pushed Dodge off his route resulting in a dropped pass.

If injuries occurred he looks like he could play and be decent.

Daniel Prior flashed a little hitting at MLB. Sean January looked solid too. I wonder how he would look at MLB on run downs.

At CB Desmond Brigham may have had the best day. Towards the end of the scrimmage, Brigham physically covered Riley Dodge breaking up a pass from QB John Dodson. Riley was called for a flag. 

On the next play, Brigham came picked off Dodson. It was nice to see that kind of competitiveness.

I thought Chase Bain was the third best QB on the roster by a good margin.  He reminds me of Riley Dodge at QB when he plays.

The Canales offense

Like everything else there was a lot of good and bad, but I think there was more good than bad. 

On the positive side, the execution was very good overall with very few penalties.

The team threw the ball deep successfully.  That was nice to see.  This team has 3 receiver who could be legitimate starting Sun Belt caliber deep threats in Tyler Stradford, BJ Lewis, and Benny Jones and 3 mid range recievers with good to great speed - Darius Carey, Jamaal Jackson, and Alex Lott - who can role up yards after the catch.  This talent dictates this team should be working on throwing the ball downfield a lot and should do it often in games.

Will it happen? Who knows.  Certainly it seems a lot more likely to occur under Canales than it did last year.

They went deep a little less than I would have liked to see, but their success rate was a lot better than last year in that regard.

I think some of the lack of aggressiveness in going deep can easily be forgiven when you recall that this was a trumped up practice session.  Canales ran a wide variety of plays.  I suspect that if it were a real game the play calling would be a little more focused (and hopefully more aggressive).  As it was, I think there was a desire to try out a lot of plays and see how the players did.

One of the fans I was speaking with expressed absolute glee that the players were not turning to the sideline before each play.  I shared that enthusiasm.

The team looked a lot more physical running the ball than in previous years under Dodge.

On the negative side the teams only scored two touchdowns each, well down from the team's scoring average last season. Still that often happens in scrimmages where players know each other very well.

The early returns on the Canales offense in my opinion and in the opinion of those fans around me was very positive.

Overall, it was a good show for the fans. Go Mean Green!

How good is previously little known sophomore UNT QB Derek Thompson? (A player with so little fanfare or exposure, there is not even a picture of Derek Thompson in the Bleacher Report Photo Datatbase. For the record, the picture to the right is a proxy photo.)

That may now be the biggest question floating around UNT's program this year. For weeks the sophomore quarterback has been making news for his play on the practice field as he's pushed incumbent Nathan Tune for the backup job.

Now with Riley Dodge moving to slot receiver, Thompson is in a competition with Tune for the starting job.

It does raise the question, "Did the potential of Thompson help end the QB career of Riley Dodge?" Consider that Dodge and Thompson will both be sophomores this coming year.

After all, if Thompson was deemed a raw, but far superior, talent to Dodge by Offensive Coordinator Mike Canales, then why spend your time developing Dodge?

To hear daily observers talk, Thompson throws hard on every play and has a pretty good arm. If you project the big Thompson (6'4", 223 pounds) as the starting quarterback, QB sneaks could become a real weapon in short-yardage situations, and that is one of the biggest problem areas for UNT on offense.

As much of an uncanny knack as Lance Dunbar has for breaking big plays, he is a pretty marginal short yardage back with poor tackle-breaking lower body strength.  Pairing him with a bull of a hard running QB who runs north-south between the tackles is a pretty compelling strategy for piling up first downs.

How good is Thompson? We don't really know. He has throw more than a couple touchdowns in spring practice.

The little collegiate film we have of him is him throwing a few passes at the end of the Arkansas State game, where he took the team down the field for a score against what may have been some of their younger backups with a perfect performance in that series.

There is also some highlight reel video on-line of his big plays in high school which makes him look a lot like Tim Tebow, but those are highlights only and the video quality is reduced to where the viewer can't get a good feel for the amount of zip on his passes, beyond noting he does seem capable of throwing the ball 40 yards with some good velocity.

He appears to have a good arm - certainly better than Riley's Dodge's from the last 2 years - but is it really a great arm, or is he just one of those QB's who puts as much pepper on every pass as he can?

Thompson as a prospect had reported 4.7 speed.  He is a north-south runner who runs with a good head of steam and good body lean.   He is still listed at 223 pounds, his weight from last season, but there is talk that he is a good bit bigger now from weight training.

There seems to be a buzz around him that appears it may extend into the coaching staff.

It seems pretty clear that at some point in the future Thomspon probably has a date with the starting QB job at UNT.  Should that be opening day in 2010 or 2011?  Or somewhere in between?

Is he really a good enough talent to beat out a guy like Tune, who has played well against a couple of the best defensive teams in college football, delivers consistent high-level play, senior leadership, and runs a mistake-free offense?

Can UNT's staff afford to take that risk with most of their more winnable games in the first half of the season?

Fans like myself can make up their minds for themselves this Sunday at 3 p.m. at Fouts Field, when UNT plays its final spring scrimmage. The scrimmage is open to the public. Both quarterbacks will split time with the first- and second-team units.

Additional notes about spring practice

Do not be surprised if UNT's defense looks very fragile vs. the run and actually the pass as well in the final scrimmage. Don't overblow the significance of it.

UNT's new recruiting class is heavy in the back seven, and a handful of those guys are here for the spring. That means defensive coordinator Gary DeLoach will be doing a lot of shifting of players around to see what they can do.

New linebacker Forlando Johnson for example, a junior college transfer, appears to be a playmaker in pass coverage. In UNT's system, one outside linebacker plays a lot like a strong safety with heavy coverage responsibility and the other is more of a box-type player.

The two starting outside linebackers are somewhat proven commodities. Craig Robertson is a multi-year starter, and Jeremy Phillips has big-time playmaking instincts in coverage and is about 12 pounds heavier so far this year.

Probably Johnson's ideal slot would be the outside linebacker spot occupied by Robertson, who, although he is the most proven linebacker and may be UNT's best linebacker, is not as much of a playmaker in space as the other two.

This has had Deloach and staff reportedly trying out both Robertson and Johnson outside as well as in the middle (perhaps hoping one of the two can beat out run stuffer AJ Penson or at least pick up some plays there in passing situations). There was even a report DeLoach might try Johnson out at safety.

Why safety with all that talent coming in and two proven solid starters? I think UNT started basically two free safety/nickleback types last year.  Both guys were pretty good in coverage, but didn't make many plays and while they did a decent job tackling, they were no threats to dismember a receiver.

My guess is that ideally the coaching staff would love to look at Ira Smith at cornerback over the spring, but because three-star recruit Jamison Hughes (a natural run controlling stong safety in my opinion) has not been there and last year's quality backup safeties John Shorter and Darrien Williams are no longer with the program, depth is not what you'd want.

(I am a bit suprised we haven't heard about three-star JUCO recruit Ryan Downing - a star JUCO safety who I see as a free safety type - beyond one big hit. I thought he'd be making noise in the secondary a la Johnson by this point, but spring practices are more of an investigative exercise, so I am not too concerned. Yet.) 

UNT's most experienced corner, Royce Hill, is out until the summer with an injury, and neither of the team's three-star, 4.4-running JUCO cornerback prospects have arrived on campus, so UNT is running out a lot of "unknowns" at the position. There is a very real possibility that the offense is running against guys who won't even see the field in the fall (though there is clearly the space for one or two of these guys to emerge).

With that coverage picture, don't expect much of a pass rush.

Really, you shouldn't expect much of one anyway. DeLoach has long tinkered with positions in the spring, and this year is no exception, with DT-turned-DE-turned-DT Tevinn Cantly once more being looked at at the end spot as well as defensive ends John Webber and LaChris Anyiam getting looks at defensive tackle. 

Last year they tried to implement a more aggressive scheme that went after the pass first, but they lacked the horses in the backfield. They sold out the run to try to generate a pass rush and it failed. That led the defense to be way behind the curve in moving to stopping the run. Their defensive ends were regularly turned and moved in the first half of the season, opening up wide running lanes.

Late in the season the coaching staff made personnel changes moving Cantly to DT, the physical senior Eddrick Gilmore to the strong-side DE spot, and better backside run chaser K.C. Obi into the lineup that helped the DL hold their position and freed the linebackers to flow down the line.

(I would contend it amounted to a decision to change their focus to stopping the run first.)

DeLoach and staff have again pushed most of their DL size to the middle. One hopes head coach Todd Dodge learned his lesson last year and the experimenting will not be allowed to go on past halfway through the fall preseason practices—rather than through 60 percent of the regular season like last year.

Guys like Aniyam and Weber need to get long looks at the strong-side defensive end spots if they prove to be marginal, backup caliber DTs. There is no reason to replicate the Gilmore mistake again this year.

While UNT will have the horses at cornerback and safety to try a philosophy that stops the pass first come the fall, they probably do not today, which means that this offseason could mirror the last in the regard that UNT's defense may come out of the spring with less of an identity than fans would like. 

This kind of shuffling will lead to holes being there when they won't be in the regular season and should make the offense and both QBs look a little better than they are.

Now, that said, a lot of good work is happening in the spring, and a lot of players are getting a lot better. I only mention this to keep fans' expectations for the spring game in perspective. 

Spring ball is an opportunity for the bottom of the roster to play its way into or close to the top two strings of the depth chart and for people at the top to get some reps. To a certain extent, a "grain of salt" has to be taken with what occurs.

Word came down yesterday that Todd Dodge had announced Riley Dodge was permanently moved to wide receiver due to chronic arm problems that have compromised his passing ability.

Along with Riley and Coach Dodge, I am absolutely devastated as a fan.

Riley Dodge is flat out one of my favorite members of the team because he is incredibly loyal.

For those of you who don't know the Riley Dodge story, Riley took Southlake to two state championship games in a row. He was the Texas 5-A (top level of play in Texas) Player of the Year.  He had a scholarship offer to play for his favorite team, the University of Texas, but then his dad landed the head coaching job at UNT.

It would have reflected very poorly on Coach Dodge if Riley went to UT, so Riley sucked it up and turned his back on UT, taking the scholarship offer to UNT.  Riley became devoted to UNT.

North Texas had a very good young starting QB in Giovanni Vizza.  Riley's arrival split the team as QB controversies often do.

Riley played some WR to help the lack of talent and development at the spot, but was knocked out for the season.  Following the season, Vizza left later citing general dissatisfaction in how many hits he took souring his love of the game.  One would think the split locker room also hurt Vizza after he earned Sun Belt Freshman of the Year.

He probably felt he would lose the job to Riley eventually because Riley is a much more instinctive runner... and the coach's son.

Last year, Riley took over at QB and had highs and lows in the job.  He won the Sun Belt Player of the Week for his play against Western Kentucky, but he lacked the arm for deep passing and turned the ball over a lot as a runner.

And then there were the injuries. 

Physically, Riley Dodge has had a brutal two-and-a-half year span.  He has had two separated shoulders, a broken arm, a sprained ankle, and a concussion. 

I was thrilled to read that Riley Dodge had spent the offseason working on his footwork and mechanics to allow him to get the most out of his arm in the coming season.

Almost as soon as spring practice opened, there was ominous talk of Riley having trouble with his arm, in spite of him throwing the deep ball better in the first few days.  It sounded like he had not recovered from his surgery.  His pass count was limited to try to get him through the spring.

Yesterday amounted to the other shoe falling for fans of Riley Dodge. 

“Riley has had two major surgeries in two and a half years,” UNT head coach Todd Dodge said. “The residual effects to his elbow didn’t allow him to be able to do what he once did. We have to look at where he can contribute and that is as an athlete in our offense. It’s a full-time move.”

You can choose not to take this quote at face value.  Perhaps Todd Dodge realized that he had pushed too hard.  Perhaps he realized that his son had been physically ground down by Coach Dodge's efforts to get him on the field as quickly as possible-perhaps before he was physically strong enough to endure the beating. 

Perhaps he felt that while Riley could potentially play at a level equal to those QBs backing him up, the chance of injury and another major surgery was simply more than Todd Dodge wanted his son to endure on his behalf.

Perhaps there was an element of saving face. Perhaps Riley's arm, which never appeared all that strong at UNT, was clearly deemed by offensive coordinator Mike Canales to have too little upside attached to a semi-fragile QB.

This move has to be absolutely brutal for both Todd and Riley Dodge.  Riley was an extremely accurate passer, a very effective runner, knew the old offense inside and out, and had the instincts that great QB's do, but if the quote can be taken at face value (which is how I chose to take it), ultimately he no longer had the arm today to make all the passes.

One can guess that Offensive Coordinator Mike Canales had the very unhappy job of telling Coach Dodge that Riley's arm was shot or to confirm what Coach Dodge was seeing.  Coach Dodge, to his credit, didn't deceive himself out of love towards his son.  If Riley's arm was in fact shot, to play him would essentially be keeping two QBs who could make those throws off the field.

For any players (or fans) who doubt Dodge's willingness to put the best players on the field, this at least was a teachable moment for players and fans.  Dodge is a much better coach than people credit him for being.

What lies ahead for UNT

Not nearly as bad of a situation as one would think for UNT.

Nathan Tune has really never been able to enter a year with a true legitimate shot at earning the starting job.  Now the strong-armed stickman from Celina has a real shot to earn the starting job.  Can he adjust his mindset?

I am hopeful it happens, but the 6'4" 206-lb Tune has to do his part.  He has to take charge of the team and rally the troops.  He has to own the job.  He doesn't have to push, potentially making mistakes, he just has to play his game and provide the cool, calm veteran leadership his teammates need... starting yesterday.

Tune is a game competitor who had the unfortunate lot last season of starting in place of an injured Riley Dodge against the two best defenses UNT faced, Alabama and Troy.  That really works in his favor this year.   He won't see anything tougher than that this season.

Tune came in for an injured Riley Dodge in the opener last year against Ohio for his first collegiate play. After throwing an interception that was returned for a TD, he drove the team down the field for the tying score to send the game to overtime. 

He finished the game 9 of 15 for 69 yards, but it should be noted he put two balls perfectly into Michael Outlaw's hands in the end zone that should have been caught for the game-winning score. 

In his first start against Alabama, the coaching staff conceded the game and really protected Tune against the pass rush with short passing, but it doesn't change the fact that Tune played well. 

Tune completed 16 of 23 (69 percent) for 126 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions or fumbles.  Alabama was one of the top defenses in the nation and were motivated to make a point after playing quite poorly the week before.  Alabama chewed up UNT's running game, limiting it to just 23 yards—seven of which Tune provided. 

With no running game, Tune scored more against Alabama than Ol' Miss, South Carolina, or Mississippi State, and as much as Arkansas.  Those are some strong passing offenses that also got the "A-game" from the eventual national champion's defense.

He next played in relief against Florida Atlantic with UNT down 27-19 and completed 13 of 17 (76.5 percent) for 126 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, rallying the team back into the game.  UNT would score 40 points, but lose the game 44-40 in no small part due to a total loss of identity and confidence by the defense at that point in the season.

The next week he started against Troy and completed 22 of 33 for 267 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.  If UNT presents any kind of running game against Troy's starters, Tune would probably have had them in that game.  As it was, UNT could not run the ball until Troy put in their backups.  Tune and Dunbar then powered UNT to 20 second-half points.

Finally, in the season finale, Tune came in with UNT down 14-0 in the first and Lance Dunbar held to four carries for negative two yards.   With no complimentary running game, Tune struggled in the first half, but Dunbar and Tune got better after the half putting 20 points on the board and getting UNT to within 10 (30-20) with 8 minutes to go before being knocked out.

(It should also be noted that good feild position and a nice run by Dunbar had UNT in position for a 37 yard FG while Tune was in, which should have cut that lead to 7, but that FG attempt was blocked.  While Tune didn't complete any passes on that drive, he didn't turn the ball over and that gets to the heart of what Tune offers.)

Tune finished the game with his worst stats of the year.  He completed 9 of 19 for a measley 55 yards but he had 1 TD and no interceptions or fumbles.

That is pretty much the worst Tune will give you.  As Army proved, you can win with that.

Tune doesn't get nearly enough credit.  He finished the year with a higher passer rating than Riley Dodge and some very nice numbers, 69 of 107 (64.5 percent) for 646 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions, but that doesn't tell anywhere near the whole story.

UNT was a mistake-prone team last year.  When Tune was in there, the team had very few turnovers.  They just didn't make those mistakes when he was in the game. 

Tune has a great high school resume although it is from a 2A school.  He lead his team to a perfect 16-0 record and the 2A state title as a senior.  His offense scored 46.1 points per game that year.

This is a guy who can run a high powered offense and not make mistakes.  He proved it in high school and he proved it last year.  A lot of fans don't like him because he doesn't push the envelope to make plays like Riley Dodge. 

They argue he is a game manager.  I'd say that may be true, but he has the skills to excel in this offense and be a really, really good game manager.

I love Tune. The kid plays within himself.

Now mind you, he is a much lesser talent playing at a lesser level, but as a passer he has the same kind of attributes Troy Aikman displayed in Dallas.  He is accurate on short and midrange throws with the arm to go deeper, although we don't have enough film on him to see if he has deep accuracy.   We do know he is the best on the team in that regard though and that has a lot of value on a team that is likely to start 3 receivers who run 4.5 or faster.

As a runner, he is not Riley Dodge, but he has some scoot.

Can he sense the pass and sidestep it?  He did well enough at that last year to think the answer is probably yes.  We do know this is a good player who faced one of the best and most talented defenses in the country last year without a running game and scored a TD. That in itself is pretty impressive.  He might really blossom if given the chance.

And he is a senior.  If Dodge wants to win this year, Tune is the smart play, but Tune has to earn it. 

While I think Tune should be the starter, I am certainly not advocating giving him the job if he plays like crap in the new offense. I say give him the starting job unless he plays himself out of it.

Tune has been given a real run for what had been the backup spot by Derek Thompson.  Thompson has NFL dimensions (6'4", 223) and has been praised as a runner this spring.  He is a more polished runner than Tune, the kind of guy who could potentially pick up short yardage for this offense through physical running.

I like Thompson a lot too long term, but he represents a gamble this year. 

If Tune gets this new offense, UNT is practically guaranteed a .500 record with him running a mistake-free offense with tons of talent around him and a defense which took a major step forward in the last month of the season and now off a strong recruiting season has the chance to start three-star recruits at 10 of the 11 starting spots.

If Tune starts, what you see with UNT (a team loaded with talent at every spot) is what you get.  With the expected level of defensive improvement, that is probably good enough for 6 wins. Tune isn't likely to give many, if any, games away.

Thompson is far more likely to give you feast or famine results like Riley Dodge did last year.  As much as his talent is exciting, I personally would have to see Tune totally implode or go down with an injury before I take the ball out of this particular kind of senior QB's hands in a make or break year.

Senior leadership afterall was a huge problem last year.

Riley's future

In time, Riley Dodge could be a pretty decent starting slot receiver, but this team is loaded at WR today.  I think a far more likely progression is that Dodge is a 15-20 catch guy at absolute best this year and next year and then challenges and probably earns a starting role his senior year.

Prior to spring practice, I'd have suspected Jamaal Jackson, Darius Carey, and either Tyler Stradford or BJ Lewis would be our three starting WRs with the odd man out of that lot plus Micheal Outlaw and Alex Lott making up our second string.

I could see last year's spring practice sensation Benny Jones making a push for a rotation job.  Since then, Grant Davis has emerged as this spring's suprise emergent wide receiver. Breece Johnson is another guy who could make a spot for himself as a red zone threat.

What I am trying to say is it is difficult to see Riley as even a second-teamer in today's receiving corps.  He knows the offense, has good hands, and is polished, but the facts are he is not one of the faster or bigger receivers on the team.

Next year when Outlaw, Jackson, Lott, Jones, Jackson, and Johnson have graduated, I would fully expect Dodge to seal up at least the second team slot receiver job.

In Riley's senior year, after Stradford and Lewis have graduated and Dodge is stronger and faster, I can see him being a very effective starting slot receiver, and maybe an all-Sun Belt player.

Still, as one who thought Dodge might be UNT's version of Ty Detmer by his senior year, this is tough news to swallow.

University of North Texas coach Todd Dodge thought he had found an overqualified replacement to fill Clayton George's role as the team's new WR coach in former Colorado State offensive coordinator Greg Peterson. 

As the story goes, Northern Colorado came knocking and offered the former Kansas State passing game coordinator their offensive coordinator job. Peterson took the job, leaving Dodge scrambling to find a replacement.

Dodge ended up hiring long-time Louisiana Tech coach Conroy Hines.

So...Who is Conroy Hines?

As I did with Mike Canales, I hit the Google machine to view coach Hines' resume and find out what Louisiana Tech fans thought of him. Here is his profile from the La Tech website, as well as La Tech fans' perceptions of his strengths and weaknesses.

First, here's his profile.

Although his resume is lighter than Peterson's, there is a lot in it for a UNT fan to pin their hopes on.

Hines was a starting QB at Louisiana Tech in 1988.

He also coached tight ends at La Tech from 1994-1998. UNT played with a TE in situations last year, but it appears the base set will include a TE this year. Hines could handle that if UNT doesn't hire a dedicated TE coach (an unconfirmed rumour floating around).

He coached WRs for two years 1999-2000, and in 1999 La Tech had four WRs catch at least 60 balls in a single season. That's hugely impressive.

In 2001, he was promoted to offensive coordinator and QBs coach. His offense did pretty well his first four years on the job and then crashed miserably in his fifth year, before bouncing back a little in his sixth.

He worked extensively with QB Luke McCown, who has gone one to have more than one cup of coffee in the NFL.

This next link for a thread from a few years ago calling for the dismissal of former La Tech head coach Jack Bicknell Jr. Coach Hines was Bicknell's offensive coordinator.  The backstory behind this thread was that fans perceived the program to be poorly run on a strict budget by their athletic director at the time, Jim Oakes. Hines apparently took a double dip PR black eye here. His offense did not perform well and fans feared Hines would be hired as the next head coach in a penny-pinching move.

Here is the thread.

• "...Our offense is not even a shell of what it was eight years ago. We desperately need new blood on our offensive staff. Conroy Hines should be promoted to Assistant AD for football and also taken off the staff. Moving Conroy Hines does two things; it allows another coach to become the offensive coordinator and it also allows Conroy to keep doing the great job he does with off-the-field issues on the team..."
  
  "...You can not continue promoting assistants to Head Coach. Conroy Hines can not be the next Head Football Coach at Louisiana Tech. He has failed at his current job, only Jim Oakes would promote someone like that. Hines became Offensive Coordinator in 2001:
  
  Yards per game: 2001: (424.9), 2002: (417.9), 2003: (431.1), 2004: (380), 2005: (311.8) , 2006: (Through Hawaii game) (336.1)
  
  Points per game: 2001(33.8), 2002: (26.7), 2003: (25.8), 2004: (25.7), 2005: (13.8), 2006: (Through Hawaii game) (19.2)..." - changemaker

It is noteworthy that his offense's numbers for the first four years he was the offensive coordinator were quite good. I had heard that La Tech had some problems with recruiting that lead to an end of the Bicknell run. If there is truth to that analysis, Hines could be quite a solid offensive mind and a very welcome addition to the staff.

This next forum tracks the announced resignation of Hines from the staff. Hines had worked his way up from a grad student to the offensive coordinator under Bicknell, but was demoted to WR coach by Derek Dooley. Hines resigned suddenly last year surprising a lot of La Tech fans.

Click here to view the thread.

• "Probably a good move for the WR's and passing game but tough on other fronts. Conroy really cares about the kids and has worked tirelessly to help them fulfill their academic obligations and stay eligible and on track to graduate (which is why they are really here!!)" - BigDog13
• "I think the problems with our WR's is evidence enough of a needed change.
  I wonder how this will effect recruiting?" - SixWings
• "Can somebody please tell me what a wide receiver coach does? Does he teach them to catch? If that's the case we've needed a new one for several years now." - No2001
• "A true Tech guy, he gave alot to this university as a player and a coach. He also played a major role in making sure these players handled the academic side as well." - Tech88

This is a lot more disturbing. On one hand, Hines established quite a reputation among La Tech fans as an academic enforcer. 

The fans were probably looking to be charitable and classy in talking about a long time coach who showed a lot of loyalty to La Tech. But they ended up making it sound like Conroy alone got these kids to graduate, which is probably a big stretch.

On the other hand, they are more or less saying Hines was a lousy WR coach under Dooley, which is the position we hired the man to coach. It leads one to wonder if Hines never got over being demoted, or frankly, if he had other baggage that prevented him from having the kind of success he had in his first go-around as the WR coach.

This thread is a newer one, initiated by another Mean Green fan asking La Tech fans for their opinion on the newest member of the Mean Green coaching staff.

Click here to view the thread.

• "many on here didn't like him. i personally think it is difficult to evaluate him as a wr coach. his first try at that position he had an outstanding wr squad. his second attempt, not so much. in between those times, he was offensive coordinator for one of the most prolific (and adaptable) offenses in the nation until his final year at that position. others have criticized him as an oc, but i found him to be good at tayloring the offense to the talent available, and excellent at situational play calling.
  most importantly, it is reported that he was a huge factor in holding players accountable academically and keeping them eligible.
  others may disagree, but i will definitely miss him." - ArkansasBob
• "He was probably fired by Dooley because he was a poor recruiter. He recruited Arkansas for the last 3 years and never signed a player." - DonW
• "I think, as with any coach, you have those who liked them and those who didn't. Conroy is a very loyal and dependable person. I think his personality and coaching style was probably much different than Dooley's and that Dooley probably kept him on staff as long as he did probably because he had to do so. In hindsight, I think many will have to say that when Conroy was OC, our offense was better than we thought at the time although still fairly predictable. I've heard that he wasn't exactly a strong recruiter. However, once you get the kids on campus, he is very approachable. He's that way for the fans as well. In addition as someone pointed out, if you want your kids to make the grades, Dodge would do well to assign the academic mentoring to Conroy. He'll make sure the kids are getting to class and getting their work done while at the same time establishing good relationships with the academic faculty.
  
  (on his resignation from Tech)... Personally, I believe Conroy's and Dooley's personalities clashed, and to be honest, Conroy was probably relieved." - DirtyDawg
• "He was great at helping our boys maintain academic eligibility and one of the reasons we have the top graduation rate among athletes in the state." - revf
• "That's about it, which is needed at most schools for sure. I was never impressed with his play calling and he couldn't hold the last few WR classes together and in fact lost a number of them that just quit. But his loyalty to TECH was tops." - Tylertechsas
• "And he was great at guiding the players through their classes and he was one of the main reason's those team's had such a HIGH graduation rate...
• Forget what he did on the sidelines, what he did with them in the classroom was his greatest work while on our staff."- DWAYNE FROM MINDEN
• "This is very ironic. A few years ago I tried to get Conroy Hines to sign a WR from McKinney named Johnny Quinn. Conroy wouldn't do it. He said Quinn would never make it in Div 1A college football. So Quinn went to UNT instead of LA Tech, and became UNT's ALL-TIME leading receiver. I kid you not. During Quin's stay at UNT, he was playing in back to back bowl games for UNT while Conroy was sitting at home in Ruston.
  Despite this, I've always liked Conroy Hines. Still do. But some of these college coaches don't know near as much about recruiting as they THINK they do. By the way, that INCLUDES some members of our (Dykes') current football staff. I'm already having similar experiences with them. As usual, they think nobody knows anything about football but them. Only problem is, I have to wait a couple of years to prove them wrong. Again.
  Best of luck to Conroy and his family."
  
  "...Quinn was drafted by the Buffalo Bills and played for the Green Bay Packers too.
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Quinn
  I never did let Conroy live that one down. Johnny Quinn was an INCREDIBLE talent......but Conroy just couldn't see it. Quinn would have been a great fit for LA Tech's wide open passing offense when McCown was the QB, and later." - HOGDAWG
• "Conroy told me that if a player wasn't rated on Rivals, he wasn't worth looking at." - DONW

Again, there is a lot of good and bad here. Coach Hines is certainly painted as a guy with a pretty lousy eye for talent and a total inability to recruit. This quite disturbing since he is being tasked with the Dallas/Fort Worth territory, where frankly, UNT has shockingly underperformed under Dodge. 

I think the idea that he lost a number of receivers while not developing a very impressive staff of receivers is disturbing. Time is limited. No winning head coach has the luxury of bleeding good prospects. They need assistants who can figure out how to push the right buttons with the players under their charge. They can't afford guys who are too set in their ways and drive off good prospects because they can't bring themselves to meet players halfway from time to time.

On the other hand, the comments by ArkansasBob certainly fill me with some hope.  The team needs someone in the offensive mix to be practical and maximize the talent on hand. Having a good play caller on hand (even if he is a little conservative) could be quite a boon, if Canales's rumoured troubles with play calling from his Arizona days still persist. If those issues do persist, having a guy whispering sound playcalling suggestions in Canales' ear could make Canales a much, much better coach.

(Canales might be Ernie Zampese: a guy who isn't a great coordinator, but is a great offensive mind. If that is the case, he would be smart to delegate some responsibilities in which he may not excel to members of his staff. Or share them with members of his offensive staff. Could Hines be Canales' Norv Turner?)

Also, with as much trouble as UNT has had climbing out of their scholarship hole, having a go-to-guy on staff to help struggling players stay disciplined in making their grades does have a lot of value. It is a lot easier to win at the FBS level with a full load of 85 scholarships.

Finally, I am pleased that by all accounts this is a really good guy. That may not count to many people, but I like the fact that guys like coach Hines and coach Canales are by all accounts stand-up guys. It makes it a lot easier to cheer for good people...and a lot easier to overlook mistakes.

February 2010 may be the month the North Texas Mean Green Football Team turned the corner—or may be the moment when the program stopped making progress and totally jumped the shark.

Hot Start

The month started in the best possible way as head football coach Todd Dodge and company pulled in the finest recruiting class North Texas has landed in years, despite having to replace one of the coordinators (offensive coordinator Todd Ford) right before the signing day.

UNT can now roll out three-star recruits at nine of their 11 starting defensive spots if they choose.  Has UNT ever been able to say that?  Probably not.

Last year, UNT seemed to want to play a pressure scheme that allowed them to come after the passer and lock up their opponent's receivers.  In retrospect, it appears the coaching staff felt they lacked the horses to lock up opposing receivers. 

They likely have those horses this year.

UNT football loses a key supporter

UNT President Gretchen Bataille resigned mysteriously. 

There are reports suggesting that friction between her and Chancellor Lee Jackson may have caused her to resign after a series of disagreements.  

Bataille and Jackson disagreed on the relocation of the UNT systems' headquarters away from Denton in a move that has been uncharitably described more as cutting commute times for people in temporary positions than for creating any net positive growth for UNT.

Bataille wanted to keep the university system's headquarters in Denton. 

Bataille had gone to the students and felt she had the support for a 5 percent tuition increase to fund university improvements and increased research activity that would ultimately increase the value of a UNT degree.

Jackson feared a tuition increase. He was agreeable to a 3.5 percent increase and ultimately the Regents agreed to a 3.95 percent increase.

(From an outsider's perspective the dispute seems to be the kind of disagreement that is frequently seen at low end academic schools.  The more conservative majority tends to look at the school and think that the only draw the unversity offers is cheap tuition.  The progressive who targets improvement in specific high yeild areas often loses those battles and the university continues to flounder.)

That vote seems to have been the straw that broke the camel's back as Dr. Bataille became the second UNT president in a row to resign without another job in hand.

This is very much an opinion piece, so I am going to put some forward.

It should be a huge red flag when capable presidents are resigning without the pull of another job.  It suggests that they have grown weary of running headfirst into short sighted management.

Is there anything about UNT that suggests this university has not been run by very short sighted people for the last 20 years at least?

Bataille had a lot of advocates.

Dr. Bataille was rapidly transforming UNT into a much higher caliber of institution with the support of the student body.  She took the time to explain the fundamental goals to the students and let them decide.  She treated the students as valuable partners in building a better university and was rewarded with their support.

She got a lot of things done on her watch and appears to have run head first repeatedly into the conservative status quo that has stunted UNT's growth in years past.

(At the groundbreaking ceremony for New Mean Green Stadium, AD Rick Villareal talked about when he took the job at UNT. He recalled making a list of every facility that had to be improved and he was told repeatedly be everyone he spoke to that he would not be able to get those improvements done at UNT. 

This same conservative foot-dragging and naval-watching probably ran off Dr. Bataille, will likely attract a lesser candidate for the post next time, and will likely lead UNT to fall behind similar universities with far more aggressive, progressive leadership and or academic advantages like Texas State, UT-Dallas, Houston, Texas Tech, and UTSA.)

The importance of Dr. Bataille's leadership cannot be understated.

UNT is a school that has traditionally taken a very hostile view of football and athletics. It is largely seen as a "music school," which in real terms means that UNT attracts a much higher proportion of "band geeks" (my wife being one) who come in with an axe to grind against high school football and a willingness to grind it against college football as well.

Traditionally, this has lead UNT to make some decisions that probably weren't in the school's best interest. Under Bataille this dynamic has been kept in check as students and alumni worked together for UNT's best interest, even if it happened to be in areas that didn't specifically interest a lot of UNT students.

The president prior to Dr. Bataille was an overt supporter of sports.  Dr. Bataille was also a very strong supporter of UNT sports, but in my opinion in a much more practical way and for much healthier reasons—because she was charged with making the university prosper in all areas.

Under Dr. Bataille's leadership, the students got on board to help finance a new stadium.  The often dysfunctional relationship between the students and the alumni saw some of its best days ever were when both groups worked together with the administration to really sell the idea of a new stadium. 

Dr. Bataille's leadership in selling overall collaboration to achieve larger goals was a big key in getting it done.

Dr. Bataille also played a large role in the institutional collaboration with UTA and UTD in pushing for legislation to improve UNT's ability to transform itself into a "research University" (sometimes refered to as a "Tier 1" university, although that term should not be confused with the US News's "Tier 1" designation for "National" doctorate-granting universities).

It is probably not a stretch to say that in her short time at UNT, Dr. Bataille did more to transform UNT into what UNT fans want it to be—a legit FBS program at a respected major university that is a peer to many state flagships—than most of our past leaders can say.

Dr. Bataille was a very effective leader who understood that athletics can actually play a very positive role in helping UNT achieve better academic standing and serve as a platform to promote the areas of excellence at the university.

Dr. Bataille put sports in its place at UNT.  She supported them, promoted them, and treated them fairly as an equal part of the UNT experience—equally as deserving of support as other areas—but not at the expense of other areas.

Lesser hands are once more in control of the direction of the university.  Who knows how that will play out for UNT and UNT athletics.

WR coach Clayton George resigns

In earlier articles I have expressed my admiration for WR coach Clayton George.

George transformed Casey Fitzgerald, a former walk-on into an All-American WR.  He developed Darius Carey and Jamaal Jackson into All-Conference receivers and landed All-Conference running back Lance Dunbar as a recruiter.

I thought of all the Dodgite high school coaches, George was the one who really got it at the collegiate level.  As readers of my columns know, I advocated George as a potential offensive coordinator after Todd Ford left and far down the road as a potential head coach of the Mean Green. 

My admiration for George (a Mean Green alum and former player) was not shared by all.

Earlier in the offseason, there was a rumor reported on the Mean Green Blog that AD Rick Villareal had told Dodge that he needed to fire three members of his staff to keep his job.  The way the story went, this was leaked to Brett Vito and Vito posted it on his blog as an unconfirmed rumor and then set about trying to confirm it.

If the rumor was true, it appears it may have leaked before Dodge could talk to his staff, which would make a lot of sense of what came next.  Dodge became enraged and drew a line in the sand to protect his staff, saying that he would not be firing any of his staff.

The administration at UNT denied the rumor.

If there was a power struggle (and it looked like there may have been), Dodge won the power struggle, earning the right to retain his entire staff. 

The apparent cost of Dodge's stance was the implimentation of a new bottom-line approach by Villareal.  The new rules more or less said that another losing season will lead to Dodge's dismissal. 

It seems to have been a tradeoff both Dodge and Villareal could stomach.

Dodge got the control and the percieved control he wanted. 

Villareal now can fire Dodge if the team struggles with no backlash from Dodge supporters and can give his coach of choice (Dodge) another year with little criticism from fans who want the bottom line of wins and losses addressed.  (They wanted Dodge gone last season due to the lack of wins.)

Interestingly, reportedly George and Ford were two of the three coaches on Villareal's scratch list.  (Let's not talk about the third coach on that list as there is no point to that discussion.)

It seems like George may have realized that he was a point of contention that put the coaching staff in a less stable position and may have begun looking for another job.

Todd Dodge's decision to immediately go outside of his staff for his next offensive coordinator rather than considering George may also have played a role.

(The official reasons stated for the George departure deal with proximity to his wife and kids who respectively work and go to school in the area.)

George returned to Southlake High School to take the offensive coordinator job he used to have.  It is a great, high-profile job dealing with motivated, well-coached kids who take football seriously and is a very good stepping stone for George should he ever want to return to the collegiate ranks.

One hopes George might one day earn a position on an established winning collegiate coaching staff so he can learn how a winning collegiate program is run (In my opinion, that is the most glaring weakness of Todd Dodge's resume and his ignorance of that probably cost Dodge at least a year in turning around this UNT program).  I could see George following a career path like that of former Irving MacArthur coach and current Rice offensive coordinator David Beaty.

I would still not be surprised to see Clayton George coaching the Mean Green in 2022-5 or so if he can get that kind of experience on a winning staff.

William Cole and Darien Williams leave the program

UNT lost two guys who are players. 

Cole was a four-star WR recruit who had just about earned a starting spot at Oklahoma State before suffering a major knee injury. 

With the transition of UNT to a three receiver spread,  there is one fewer receiver slot available.  We don't know why Cole left, but Cole may have simply felt there was too much quality competition.

Williams was a pretty good safety in run support, but looked likely to be squeezed out with all the incoming defensive backs. He should be a top player at the D-II or FCS level.

Thank God February is over

March brings the news of UNT hiring former Colorado State offensive coordinator Greg Peterson as it's new WR coach.  Peterson was very successful in the past as Kansas State's WR coach and passing game coordinator.

Some quick facts about Peterson:

• Former member of wide receiving corps of the USFL's Houston Gamblers, one of the premeire run and shoot offenses of all time.  Peterson played for longtime successful NFL and Collegiate head coach Jack Pardee and caught passes from NFL hall of Fame QB Jim Kelly.
• Recruiting coordinator for CSU with focus areas being Colorado Springs, Arlington, and DFW.
• Has developed a lot of good players as a WR coach, including eight Biletnikoff candidates.
• Has served as recruiting coordinator at Kansas State, Colorado State, and Washington State.
• Position coach for a couple years under John L. Smith at Idaho. The Vandals went 20-5 those years.
• He coached for Bill Snyder at Kansas State and filled various roles on a staff that went 109-40. It should be noted that their better seasons occurred when he was the passing game coordinator. It is always good to have guys who have been a part of winning programs on your staff. It is noteworthy that he was demoted to WRs coach his last year at Kansas State.
• He was the offensive coordinator at Colorado State before being demoted. The team went 7-4 in 2008 with him "running the offense" and started out 3-0 last year before going into a season long losing skid. He was demoted to recruiting coordinator in November after 6 straight losses and ultimately was forced out the door.

He seems to be a good recruiter, a pretty darned good position coach, and a plus as an offensive mind. His exit from CSU sounds messy and is probably the only reason UNT was able to land this caliber of coach as our WR coach for what is likely a pretty small salary. It sounds like the head coach, Steve Fairchild, made Peterson the scapegoat for the failings of the offense - although Fairchild apparently called the plays...

One wonders how ugly things got between Fairchild and Peterson as the offense struggled. Did Peterson suggest changes that Fairchild took offense to, leading Fairchild to replace Peterson with a younger, unproven, and more malleable replacement? (all speculation)

Peterson could really help Canales if Canales uses him like a peer sounding board helping Canales develop a more focused and streamlined offense. Those Kanas State offenses rarely beat themselves with turnovers.  Peterson could really help UNt in that regard.  Hopefully that is how Canales sees it.

In the words of Oglivy, “If we hire people who are smaller than we are, we will become a company of dwarfs. If we hire people who are larger than we are, we’ll become a company of giants.”

Hopefully Peterson will be a passing game coordinator/WRs coach here, freeing Canales from busywork so he can work with the QBs more.

Plus it usually doesn't hurt to have someone who was a big part of a dominant BCS program for over a decade on staff. Getting a few guys who have been a part of winning programs on staff generally helps.   UNT doesn't have a lot of that on staff.

Still it is curious that Snyder did not scoop this guy up again when he became available...

Pros: knows what he is doing, has been the passing game coordinator on several offenses that didn't make a lot of mistakes, and is a plus recruiter who has long term realtionships with coaches in the DFW area where UNT has not excelled recruiting.
Cons: May not play well with others. (entirely speculation.)

Some links on Peterson:
http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/viewcoach.asp?Coach=259&Team=15&Sport=1&Year=2009

http://weeklyblitz.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/petersons-reassignment-raises-questions/

With the hiring of Peterson, it look like UNT has some positive momentum again.

It is hard not to be optimistic as a Mean Green football fan heading into 2010.

UNT is loaded with both talent and experience, something that has not been the case since before Head Coach Todd Dodge arrived on campus.

With above average Sun Belt talent on hand, the issue will come down to coaching this year.

There are generally three coordinators handling three units in football in the college level.  To win with consistency, teams generally have to win two of the three areas...That means new offensive coordinator Mike Canales could be the determining factor in the Mean Green's football success in 2010.

Recruiting and the Sun Belt

Rosters in the Sun Belt are generally comprised almost entirely of players who were two- and three-star prospects. Between 2007 and 2010, the nine sunbelt schools combined to only sign 131 prospects on signing day that Rivals.com ranked as greater than two-star prospects.

96 of those 131 prospects landed at Troy, MTSU, FIU, and UNT.  Only 35 of those prospects signed with ULM, ULL, FAU, WKU, and StAte.

Troy and MTSU are, of course, the elite programs of the Sun Belt.  FIU and UNT both had big recruiting years this year somewhat narrowing the four-year talent gap with Troy and MTSU.

UNT had their best signing day in the Todd Dodge era this week, landing eight players in their 2010 recruiting class ranked three-star prospects by Rivals.com.

The UNT Defense and Gary DeLoach

In many ways, the impact this will have on the UNT defense could be profound.

UNT Defensive Coordinator Gary DeLoach was the architect of the defensive unit that would go on to propell UNT to 4 straight Sun Belt titles in the early part of the last decade. He's been a defensive coordinator for just under 20 years. He's coached in the NFL. He's coached in the Pac-10. He won a JUCO national title as a defensive coordinator in 1997.

He seems to know what he is doing, which makes the results of the last two seasons disappointing. DeLoach has not publically complained about the talent leading fans to think the talent has been there to win—the results simply haven't been there.   

There is a line of thought pushed by Brett Vito in his Mean Green Blog that Deloach has seemed somewhat dissappointed in the talent and depth of talent he has had to work with since returning to UNT.

With the eight three-star recruits UNT landed this year, DeLoach now enters the 2010 season with 11 three star recruits on defense.  He has the option of replacing every starter in his defensive back seven with a new three-star recruit. 

In addition to returning nine defensive starters, he will have the option of starting a three-star recruit at nine of his 11 spots.

Just in terms of talent, that is very salty for the Sun Belt.

It seems pretty likely with upper echelon talents (for the Sun Belt) to execute his defense this year, UNT's defense will see another jump in effectiveness mirroring the improvement from 47.6 ppg in 2008 to 36.4 ppg in 2009.  Considering the infusion of speed and talent, the large number of returning starters, and the defense's strong finish (allowing 28.8 ppg in the last four games of 2009), it does not seem that unlikely that the defense improves to the point where they are allowing say 25-27 ppg in 2010.

Special Teams get a bump but will likely continue to struggle

Special teams will be improved...afterall, they can hardly get much worse. 

The failure of Todd Dodge to retain long time UNT special teams coach Eric Russell when Dodge took over has haunted the Dodge regime. 

Many UNT fans feel Dodge gave the job to a "homey hookup" who was not qualified to handle the job.  The coach who was in the position certainly did not dispell that impression.  In 2008, UNT had the worst special teams in the nation and Dodge was forced to make a change.

In 2009, star running back coach Shelton Gandy was tasked with additionally taking on the special teams units.  Gandy used an influx of talented faster athletes to dramatically improve the team's coverage and return units...but the special teams units were still pretty awful.

Kickoff returns were where the good news for UNT special teams started and ended in 2009.

Gandy did a very solid job in coordinating and coaching kick returns.  Royce Hill was a very reliable and productive kick returner.  He was joined by a star kick-returning talent in 4.4 speedster Jamaal Jackson.  Together they helped UNT lead the Sun Belt in average per kick return.

UNT could and probably should be even better in that area next year.  Jackson made a number of mistakes as a returner that Gandy should be able to correct if he is competent as a special teams coach.  If UNT uses Jackson in that role again this year, he should be even better with solid coaching. UNT also landed a couple of recruits who might figure into the return game. Plus DB Ira Smith showed a lot as a kick returner last spring.   He also has 4.4 speed and could figure in as well.

Punt returns were nothing to write home about, as UNT finished sixth in the Sun Belt with a 5.9 yard per return average.  I was unimpressed with the coaching in this area.  Again there are talents coming in who might figure in on punt returns.

Despite massive progress, the coverage units were still pretty awful last season.  UNT cut their opponents' punt return average from their 2008 average of 13.1 to 11.4 and their opponents' kick returns from 31.0 to 21.7 yards per kick return.

To give perspective, UNT lead the Sun Belt in Kick returns with a 22.3 average, and FIU lead the league in punt returns with a 12.1 yard average.

Special teams looked merely below average for the Sun Belt until UNT suffered a run of field goals blocked up the middle of over a run of games.  That really put UNT firmly at the bottom of the Sun Belt.  Still, that was a major step up from 2008. And things should get better in 2010.

While there is a question of Gandy's competence as a special teams coach, and whether he should be splitting those responsibilities with Defensive Coordinator Gary DeLoach (former special teams coach at UCLA), the sheer number of speedy sure tacklers recruited should very much help the coverage units, even if they aren't the best coached units in the conference.

The seven three-star recruits who are scheduled to challenge for starting spots in the defensive back seven might figure in to the coverage units, too.  Other recruits in this class like S Will Wright, ace special teams players like kick returner Brelan Chancellor (four TDs on Kickoff returns in high school), Blake Dunham (blocked kick in high school), and CB D'Leon McCord (best special team player on his JUCO team) should also dramatically improve the talent on hand for Gandy's units.

Punter Will Atterberry had his good and bad moments as a freshman.

Coach Todd Dodge praised the team's new Kicker Zachary Olen for the height he gets on his kickoffs.  If that also translates into his field goals, that could potentially help with the blocked kicks issue, although there was a lot more wrong on those blocked kicks than the kicker.

It is likely that at minimum, coverage and returns will improve with this influx of talent putting the other units into better postions.

It is also likely that special teams will not consistently outperform UNT's opponent's units.

Which Brings Us to the Offense

Offense seems the big question.

Will UNT improve on offense this year?

UNT averaged a respectable 26.6 points per game last season in spite of having a number of issues.

The team could not complete long passes (third-worst yard per attempt in the Sun Belt).  They committed a sun Belt worst 29 turnovers, putting the defense into bad situations and causing the young team to suffer disasterous emotional meltdowns in many games. 

They had an inability to score in the red zone (fourth-worst in the Sun Belt) with 15.2 percent of their trips to the red zone not even yielding a FG attempt (third-worst in the Sun Belt).

They could not convert in short yardage (fifth in the Sun Belt in third-down conversions at 42.1 percent and eighth in fourth-down conversions at 30.8 percent).   

And they collapsed down the stretch when they faced better defenses who solved the Mean Green offense and dictated terms to the Mean Green offense on how UNT could use Lance Dunbar. In the last four games of the season, UNT averaged 18.2 points per game. 

Still, at the end of the day, 26 points per game is still pretty solid. UNT is returning 10 offensive starters from last season and has four starters back from an exceptional pass blocking offensive line.

They welcome back two of the Sun Belt's top four receivers from last season: speedsters Jamaal Jackson and Darius Carey, the Sun Belt's No. 2 rusher in RB Lance Dunbar, and QB Riley Dodge, a 67.7 percent passer who ran for 463 yards as a first-year starter. They have a wealth of experienced and talented backups like short yardage specialist Micah Mosley (ran for over 400 yards as a freshman before being overshadowed by Lance Dunbar and Cam Montgomery and forgotten by the coaching staff) and WR Breece Johnson (dominated in red zone opportunities at the highest level of Texas High school football).

If UNT simply ran the same offense as last year, they would be able to choose between filling the empty guard spot with a 2008 starter who was very solid, Coleman Feeley, or a 2009 three-star JUCO recruit in Jeremy Bean.

With UNT's growing strength program, it seems likely that the offensive line should get a little stronger and heavier.  Hopefully that will translate into a more physical unit that is better at short yardage next year.

But there is more. Like the defense and special teams, the offense has a lot of new talent coming in so they could potentially be a lot better.

The team will be welcoming WRs Tyler Stratford, a physical No. 1-type receiver who transferred in from OU, and William Cole, a transfer from Oklahoma State. Stratford was three star recruit Rivals reported to have 4.41 speed.  Cole, a relative of UNT legend "Mean" Joe Green, was a four-star recruit.  He played QB in high school but was reportedly on the verge of earning a starting WR job at OSU when he blew out his knee.  Cole reportedly had 4.54 speed before he blew out his knee.

The Mean Green will also have a lot of options at the newly featured tight-end position. Juco transfer WR/TE Christopher Bynes is a polished receiver who Todd Dodge said he though UNT would lose to a higher-profile school.  

Jamize Olawale, a 237 lb JUCO transfer, is a more natural TE.  He appears to have pretty good speed.  Austin Fitzpatrick was a TE prospect Dodge outdueled FAU coach Howard Schnellenberger to land last year. 

Finally Draylen Ross will be moving back to TE.  Ross is a massive 6'4", 292 lbs athlete who played TE in 12 games for UNT as a true freshman, starting one game.

So the talent is definitely there for improvement.  Just based on talent, UNT should be able to score say 26-30 points or more against most of the teams on its schedule next year. UNT has the talent to put points up on every team in the Sun Belt at minimum.  Can Canales deliver on that talent?

At Arizona, the impression among Wildcat faithful seems to be that in spite of a very valid poor talent argument, Canales still underdelivered.  They feel Canales installed an overly-complex offense that the players never mastered, but during games Canales would retreat back to very conservative and repetitive play calling.  The end result was not pretty.

His opponents knew what was coming, and his players weren't good at executing the plays he called.  The players had a lot of miscommunication, poorly thrown passes, false starts, and penalties—many of these areas in part a function of not being confident in one's ability to execute.

That I can see this is the first OC job where Canales's head coach has been in a win now or else situation.  They will impliment the Canales offense in the spring, the players will need to know it by the fall and if they don't, everyone could lose their jobs.

There is no "well, we got close and we'll get it right in year 2 or 3."

Additionally, there are a lot of players who need a lot more time spent learning technique than learning plays and terminology.

Has Canales learned from his past? Will he recognize the time constraints at UNT? Will he scale down his playbook allowing the players a chance to get a good grasp of the offense at UNT? Will he focus on making sure his players are getting his concepts, perhaps even rethinking his standard presentation to make sure they get it?

There seems a very likely logical path for improvement on defense and on special teams.  The same cannot be said for the offense.  The offense hangs entirely on how efficient Canales is in installing it, how well it utilizes the talent on hand, how well he communicates his concepts, and how well he calls the games.  It is all on Canales.

UNT's offense should be better than it was in 2009, but the disturbing truth is that it could be worse in 2010 if Canales doesn't learn from his past and take active steps to change.  If he doesn't focus on making his offense digestable, things could go badly in Denton. 

The offense could be a turnover and mistake prone anchor that drags the team down and kicks out their legs at crunch time.

If the offense is worse than last season, that could keep this team under .500 and cost this staff their jobs. 

It seems very likely that will be the narrative of the upcoming season.

Will Canales deliver?

National signing day has come and gone, and North Texas Coach Todd Dodge and his staff did far better than any Sun Belt staff with a 5-31 three-year record could expect, landing eight three-star recruits.

With all eight of the three-star recruits being defensive players and six of them coming in from JUCO ranks, this is the kind of haul that should translate into the immediate help UNT's coaching staff needed entering their make or break season.

This appeared to be another very good job by UNT recruiting coordinator Chuck Peterson and the Mean Green staff, although Coach Dodge credited the New Mean Green Stadium as being a major positive in recruiting and specifically gave his players credit with closing the deal with a number of recruits .

According to Rivals.com, UNT finished fourth in the Sun Belt by total points in the Rivals system but ended the day higher in some key areas.  The average stars for UNT was 2.36 , which put them third in the Sun Belt behind FIU and MTSU.

No one in the Sun Belt landed any four-star recruits this year, but UNT finished with eight three-star recruits—tying with MTSU for third best in the Sun Belt behind Troy (10) and FIU (10).

Here are your new members of the Mean Green:

Name                            Pos.   Ht.   Wt.    Hometown (HS)   Rivals Star Ranking    Speed
Christopher Bynes          WR    6'1"  210    Coffeyville (Kan.) CC         **                  4.6
Brelan Chancellor         KR/WR 5'9"  170    Copperas Cove, Texas       **
Jamize Olawale              TE      6'2"  237    El Camino (Calif.) CC        **
Graylan Hawkins          LT/TE    6'4"  250   Dallas, Texas (Skyline HS) **
Antonio "Tony" Johnson   LT      6'6"  270   Diboll, Texas (Diboll HS)    **
Mason Y’Barbo               C/G    6'2"  290   Sulphur Springs, Texas      **                5.52
Brandin Byrd                  RB     5'11" 185  Copperas Cove, Texas        **                 4.5
Derrick Teegarden          QB     6'0"  170   Odessa, Texas                   **                4.58
 
Blake Dunham            ATH/ST  6'1"  200 Argyle, Texas (Argyle HS)    **
Zach Olen                      K       5'9"  210 Richardson, Tex. (Berkner HS) **

Richard Abbe                DT       6'4" 300 Lubbock, Texas (Monterey HS) **
Aaron Bellazin             WDE      6'2" 230 Everman, Texas                     ***
Michael Miller              SDE       6'3" 260 Antelope Valley (Calif.) CC      **
Zachary Orr                MLB       6'0" 240 DeSoto, Texas (DeSoto HS)   ***
^Brad Graham            OLB       6'1" 210 Navarro JC                           ***             4.6
^Forlando Johnson     WOLB     5'11" 205 Butler County (Kan.) CC       ***
Steven Ford                  CB       6'0" 190  Fort Scott (Kan.) CC            ***             4.4
^D’Leon McCord           CB        6'1" 185 Butler County (Kan.) CC        **
D’Andre Wood              CB         6'0" 192 New Mexico Military Institute ***           4.4
Will Wright                    S          6'2" 200 Garland, Texas                      **            4.5
^Ryan Downing             S          6'1" 200 Butler County (Kan.) CC       ***
^Jamison Hughes          S          6'1" 200 Peark River (Miss.) CC          ***

^ New players already currently enrolled at UNT who are likely participate in spring practices.

Thumbnail impressions

In the video at the Mean Green site linked above, they have clips with Todd Dodge breaking down the class.

The following notes are in part pulled directly from Dodge's statements as well as my thoughts after listening to Dodge, watching the clips, and tracking down info elsewhere.

Keep in mind that usually some players flake out and never see the field, get injured,  or run afoul of a coach.  Other players aren't utilized properly.  It is very easy to be optimistic on signing day, but the yeild is almost never as good when the players actually hit the field.

Byrd: Dodge sees a lot of Lance Dunbar in him. I can see the ability to break off long runs in space, but the kid is only 185-pounds, so let's call it freshman Lance Dunbar, not the Dunbar of last season. No reason to saddle the kid with those kinds of expectations yet. His size mirrors Dunbar's at the same point in their careers.

Bynes : He may challenge for the third and last starting WR spot. He looks pretty polished. Dodge expressed that he was suprised UNT didn't lose him to a bigger program. Dodge says he reminds him of former UNT WR Brandon Jackson and calls him a very physical receiver. Bynes has two brothers playing scholarship football.

Chancellor: Had four kick returns returns for TDs in high school.  I wonder if he might be the primary or secondary kick returner next season?  I think he has a shot there. A big play guy running reverses from the slot. Dodge uses the word "explosive" to discribe him.  The video clips show him being very explosive and fast out of the slot.  Designated reverse guy?

Olawale: Looks like an H-Back type receiving TE.  Not a lot of sand for blocking, but showed pretty good speed on the clip; Olawale took one to the house on a very nice bomb.

Hawkins: Looks a lot lighter than 250. Looks like a TE today.  Dodge says they might play him a little at TE early on.

Johnson: Former two-year starter at TE in high school. Spent senior year at LT. Looks like a left tackle today.  May grow into a right tackle.

Y'Barbo: Powerlifter.  Looking at the clips, looks like a guy who could potentially challenge Jeremy Bean and Coleman Feeley at the open guard spot if he is mature enough. Locks up well and looks like an FBS player in terms of size, strength, and aggressiveness. Played Guard in HS. Dodge sees him as a center who can play guard.

Teegarden: Runs around and can throw the ball on the run. He looks like another spread QB. Watching the clips I thought of Chase Bain, but really you need a ton more video to evaluate a QB.

Dunham: Played a number of positons in high school: LB, TE, DB, RB. Possible designated kick blocker?  He doesn't have the sped you generally want for that, but it is as much a knack as speed to block kicks.  Looked pretty good doing a lot of different things in high school.  I see a LB. Maybe getting more grief than he deserves.  He looks like a talent that legitimately might have earned a scholarship from an FBS program.

Ohlen: Dodge says he kicks the ball high and deep.  Strong leg. Very accurate 35 yards and in. Dodge thinks Ohlen is pretty clutch.

Abbe: A former HS left tackle.  Dodge called him athletic. The clips were of him playing tackle. He looked good and tough, but looks a little stiff to me.  He moves like a run-stuffing DT. He looks like he is strong enough to push his man around and probably hold position in the Sun Belt. Defensive line coach Mike Nelson liked this kid.

Bellazin: Played DT and LB. Projects to DE. His highlight films had him making a lot of plays in the backfield. That could be a little misleading as he was beating much slower guards, but on the flipside it does suggest he plays good technique and can hold his position vs. bigger offensive linemen. Not that it would be a suprise, but he could be a good weak-side DE today.

Miller: Dodge smiled when he talked about this kid.  Recruited by DL coach Nelson. Dodge says he'll be "pretty special" here.  There were only a couple of clips and he made plays, but while they didn't show me greatness, Dodge said he and staff did see a lot on the film. Maybe he does a lot of things technically correct. Maybe they didn't share the best plays. We will see.

Orr: His father had a 10 year NFL career.  Orr looks like a guy who could take that starting job MLB if he comes in with the right attitude and no ego. He looks like a FBS player—big and strong. Dodge had a lot to say about Orr, "This is a banger!...very pasionate about the game of football...student of the game."

Graham: Dodge called him a "tackling machine". Had a very nice run in high school and won the Texas JUCO Defensive Player of the Year award for his play. This is a guy who seems to roll right down the LOS to stop players for little to no gain. 4 INTs in a JUCO season. Do not be suprised if he takes a starting job at OLB.

Johnson: He looks smaller and shorter than listed so I have listed him at his initally reported height and weight, but wow, does he ever look good on film! He looks like a little bullet exploding into the backfield and taking down runners behind the LOS. I have not been able to track down his speed, but he plays the game like he might run a 4.5. He gets in the mix.

Ford: This guy might be the most interesting player landed.  One gets the feeling that the staff thinks they found a diamond in the rough. Ford advised Brett Vito in an interview for the Mean Green Blog that he was recruited by UNT with the idea he would be the team's shut down corner.  He clearly played a lot of press man coverage in the JUCO ranks and is a former HS WR.  He also plays the run well. Although his film doesn't suggest elite play, I would not be suprised if he ended up the season as our No. 1 CB.

Mccord: Dodge mentioned that this guy was a special teams star at the JUCO level.  That may be his role here. His clips show him stepped back about 5-10 yards. I don't see anything in the clips to suggest he will be the press CB we have needed for years.

Wood: Really fast. He is very good at submarining a runner heading outside.  It is unclear how well he covers in man, but he can catch a misthrown ball and is very dangerous running it.  (I kind of wonder if he might figure in on punt returns.) Rivals thinks a lot of him.

Wright: The video clips were good plays.  He looks like a player who will put someone on his ass. May not play much immediately due to the depth, but he looks like someone who will play eventually. He mentioned playing on special teams in an inteview with Brett Vito. I was excited to see Wright recorded 9 INTs in a season.  Could he be the ballhawking FS we have needed? (He was recruited as a SS.)

Downing: Mentioned at FS and SS. If his highlights are any indication, he could be a top notch safety and possibly a team leader. A lot of DBs don't get there to make plays, but this guy does. The video does give a fairly good view of his game.  He has speed and will put someone down on the ground. He can blitz. He may be able to cover. He locks on to a runner and puts him down. Additionally it appears he may be able to make some plays on the ball for interceptions.

Hughes: An FBS defensive coordinator's son. What comes through on the film is the discipline. The guys moves with purpose. He keeps his body parallel and strings plays out well. Once an opponent commits, Hughes has the explosion and speed to close and take the runner down.  He works through blocks. Appears to have decent hands.  Looks like a textbook SS to me.

Other thoughts from Dodge in the Q&A session:

"The more man coverage guys you can get, the more you (can) come after the QB..."

"I can see Zack Orr playing a lot early. Chris Bynes...contributing to us."

Sees all of the new recruits being a "huge help" in the team's pass rush.

If he wanted to sum up the goal of the program this offseason he would say "bring in more tacklers."

Dodge said Mike Miller will be able to step into the starting Strongside DE spot, and Dodge projected that Belazine and KC Obi are going to get a lot bigger as they are in the strength program.

Finally, there was another "Forrest Rucker love" question where someone asked if the big, raw receiver who captures so many fans' attention would become a TE.

Dodge totally sidestepped the idea.  He advised Greg Brown (a big freshman WR from last year) would be in the hunt at TE and that Senior DT Draylen Ross would as well—at least for the spring (It sounds like a trial period).

(Ross played in 12 games and started one game at TE as a freshman the year before Dodge arrived on campus.  He also played TE and DE in high school.)

According to Dodge, highly prized 2009 TE recruit Austin Fitzpatrick or Olawale could also emerge at the spot.  Finally Dodge advised that Bynes could also see some time at TE.

Overall impression

I was disappointed not to hear a single word from Todd Dodge about John Weber, a JUCO transfer from last season who was forced to red shirt last year due to injury.  I would have expected him to be a frontrunner at a DE spot.  That was a bit ominous.

After finally seeing clips of these new recruits at their best, it seems pretty clear why they were recruited.  These guys may be a little undersized, but thay are fast playmakers who can tackle.  They look like very solid players.

Expect to see a lot more blitzing on defense next year.  Forlando Johnson especially might be utilized as a fifth rusher to great effect.

Last year the team was reworked with smaller, faster defensive ends.  The coaches probably thought the front four would generate a pass rush, but the coverage was not there to get much of a pass rush.  With little coverage or pass rush, teams were able to avoid rushed passes and interceptions.

Between improvements from last year's starters (nine of which are back) and new three-star competition at EVERY spot in the back seven, this team should be dramatically better in coverage.

Consider UNT's CB situation where Royce Hill (two star 2007 recruit with 4.52 speed) returns along with the fourth and fifth CBs in 2009 Robbie Gordon (two-star 2006 recruit) and Hilbert Jackson (two-star 2009 recruit with 4.6 speed). 

Now they will face competition from two faster, more highly-ranked CBs in Wood and Ford (4.4 speed, three-star recruits), competition from McCord (a two-star), and possibly also from Ira Smith (three-star JUCO recruit with 4.4 speed in 2009), a starting safety for UNT last year.

With coaches' favorite starter Dawaylon Cook (three-star 2008 recruit with 4.5 speed) and backup Darrien Williams (two-star 2008 recruit with 4.5 speed) returning and competing with new arrivals Downing, Wright, and Hughes for the two safety spots, UNT can legitimately entertain moving Smith to CB.

It is not hard to imagine the competition yielding much better coverage results.

It looks like UNT's plan is to come after opponents.  They may have the talent to pull it off in 2010.