Seattle

Following the Seattle Seahawks win on Sunday against the St. Louis Rams, a friend of mine asked a question that initially seemed silly, but upon second thought made me think.

"Is Pete Carroll the best coach in the NFL?"

It's a question that, depending on what week it is, could have an entirely different answer. 

Yet with a regular-season record of 11-5 it's hard to find much fault with what Carroll and by extension general manager John Schneider have accomplished in three full seasons in Seattle.

Earlier this week Danny O'Neil at The Seattle Times illustrated the progress Carroll and Schneider have made in constructing their current roster brick by brick: 

Pete Carroll came to the Seahawks in 2010 as an epically successful college coach with a mediocre NFL head-coaching résumé and a whole country wondering how he was going to bridge that gap.

No one doubted the man's coaching chops. The question concerned personnel. Carroll was coming from one of the crown jewels in college football, USC, where he made top-five recruiting classes routine. But you can't talk your way into a talent advantage in the NFL, not with the salary cap and the draft order working to spread talent across the league's 32 teams.

That's what makes the assembly of these Seahawks under Carroll and general manager John Schneider so compelling. It hasn't just been about the draft. It hasn't just been free agency. And it most certainly hasn't been about Carroll collecting every NFL player who happened to have played for him at USC.

 

Prior to this season I was one of those skeptics.  Even after the team "won" the division in his first year and started to collect talent and wins last season, I still had trouble believing the 'Hawks were capable of anything more than grabbing a wild-card spot this year until they got a legitimate franchise quarterback.  

Russell Wilson, from day one, did everything asked of him and more in helping change the franchise.

That in itself was no small thing, but it required Carroll's belief in him going all the way back to May during the Seahawks rookie camp.  Funny thing is that at the time, it seemed like Pete was simply trying to make the whole quarterback competition more spectacle than sport.      

I was wrong as I grossly underestimated both men and perhaps a third. 

When John Schneider came from Green Bay shortly after Pete Carroll came on board back in 2010, I wasn't sure whether he was simply going to take orders from Carroll or strike out on his own in taking over as the 'Hawks general manager.  

Quite frankly I still not entirely sure where exactly Carroll ends and where Schneider begins, but what they're doing seems to be working quite well as the team has found the talent needed to win by leaving no stone unturned. 

And perhaps what is most comforting in all of this is that for the moment, the Seahawks look like they're built to last with the young nucleus they have in place.  Which in this day and age is special given the temptation to build for today and worry about tomorrow later. 

That's not to say anyone should be complacent.

What the 'Hawks have this year is special when you consider how just when it seemed all was lost, they not only fought back, but did so with a vengeance with the crowning moment coming against San Francisco on Sunday night at CLink Field in Week 16 as they clinched a playoff berth.

In many ways it would be a shame to see that kind of energy and excitement come to end on Sunday afternoon in our nation's capitol.   

Can Pete Carroll's 'Hawks go to Washington and win?

If Carroll is the best coach in the NFL, then he will need to prove it against a man with two Super Bowl rings as a head coach. 

Back in Week 11, the Redskins were coming off their bye week with a record of 3-6 looking like a team with little to no chance of making the postseason, as the reigning world champion New York Giants had a 6-4 record and what seemed like firm control of the NFC East.  

Yet with rookies Robert Griffin III at the controls and Alfred Morris running the football, Mike Shanahan's team rattled off seven straight wins to wrestle control away from the fading Giants and a lingering Dallas Cowboys squad to finish the season as NFC East Champions at 10-6.

Of all the head coaches active in the playoffs, Shanahan is the only one with a Super Bowl ring that Carroll hasn't beaten this season.  

Fortunately wins against New England's Bill Belichick and Green Bay's Mike McCarthy earlier this season showed that Carroll can go head to head with proven winners and emerge victorious. 

If you want to further validate Carroll's claim, the 'Hawks have been in every game this season to the very end win or lose with their biggest margin of defeating coming against the 49ers back in Week 7.  Not too many teams still in contention can say that as have been beaten soundly at least once this season or were embarrassed by an inferior opponent. 

So is Carroll the best?

He's certainly worthy of consideration and if the 'Hawks can go on the road and win Sunday, it sure would help his case. 

Fact is the course of this season Carroll has really surprised me.  At best, even if everything fell into place I didn't see this team being any better than 10-6 while barely sneaking into the playoffs...and that was just a few weeks ago.

An 11-5 record with the team continually getting stronger late in the season has made me a believer and that worries me. 

Can the Seahawks continue to move the ball and score with authority? 

If so, when paired with the defense, the 'Hawks are legitimately scary and could ride the tide all the way to New Orleans.

If that happens Carroll could join some pretty elite company in being one of only three men (the others being Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer) to win a college national championship and a Super Bowl—not to mention the fact he took a young team of his own creation and won three straight road games along the way.

That should quiet the critics once and for all. 

Until then, let's just go one game at a time.  First stop...Washington. 

It's that time again. The time between New Year's and Spring Training. The time of year when you start to itch for baseball, especially when you know that football could end in a heartbeat.

For the moment the overwhelming majority of sports fans in the Pacific Northwest are waiting for Sunday afternoon when the Seahawks face the Washington Redskins in their highly anticipated Wildcard matchup.

Yet instead of talking about Russell Wilson, the 'Hawks defense or Pete Carroll, I get the feeling that Mariners fans are waiting. Waiting for something. Waiting for a move that will validate what the team's front office is looking to achieve before pitchers and catchers report.  

Much of the waiting revolves around the Mariners outfield and whether or not general manager Jack Zduriencik has another move up his sleeve this winter that will help soothe a fanbase unsure of whether this team can simply compete in 2013.  

Last week I stressed that the team needs to find a good outfielder between now and Spring Training; however, passionate pleas to sign Michael Bourn or trade for either Giancarlo Stanton or Justin Upton may seem well intended, but are not without complications. 

Can the M's really get Bourn to sign with them?

Does Jack Z have the intestinal fortitude to part with one or more of his top prospects to land either Stanton or Upton? 

Perhaps I'm jaded, but I have a hard time as seeing any of these options as realistic even if the Marlins talking about Stanton?" The M's are talking to the Marlins about Stanton according to FoxSports Jon Paul Morosi. 

Instead I think the the Mariners are more or less forced to work from the opposite end of the spectrum when you consider the outfield options---at least in free agency---still available according to Yahoo!Sports Jeff Passan. 

Beyond Bourn, the options are a ghastly mix of broken toys and washed up veterans, none of which you would be pleased to see the team invest much time or money in at this point. 

Months ago---before the season had even ended---I suspected that Delmon Young could be on the Mariners radar and sure enough the team checked in on him back in early December according to Morosi. 

Sadly, beyond Young you start looking at players like Grady Sizemore, who would be a low risk-high reward player, but would join the growing ranks of Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez as players coming to Seattle five years too late.  

If all else fails though, don't be shocked to see Sizemore at Spring Training looking for one last shot at redemption as Jack Z hopes that someone out of that aging trio can come to life for just one more year and do something meaningful with 400-plus at bats. 

Until that time all that can be done is hope that Jack Z proves me wrong and makes a move bold enough to reshape the Mariners. 

The trade for Jesus Montero last January and more recently for Kendrys Morales both show he's capable of making surprise deals and taking on some risks, but a blockbuster deal for Stanton or Upton both seem too steep for Jack to jump. 

In both cases, Arizona and Miami have most if not all the leverage and therefore can deal from strength with their proven commodities. Where as Jack Z has prospects and little else other than Felix Hernandez. 

Ultimately it's a game of chicken that I can't see Jack giving in to, yet I do think he can continue dancing with both clubs. 

After reaching a stalemate, I can see him moving towards "Plan B" by focusing on the likes of either a Jason Kubel or Logan Morrison. That may not sound as exciting, but could probably be acquired for a more reasonable price to play left field. 

In essence, a move like that---similar to the one for Kendrys Morales---as a compromise will buy Jack Z time. Time to shuffle the cards in the deck to see what he has to work with on the field at Seattle and time to let his prospects like Danny Hultzen and Mike Zunino make their ways to the big leagues. 

It's not sexy and it could easily blow up in the process, but it is what I believe is realistic at this point in time.  

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently announced that utility man Jose Lopez is close to signing a deal with the Japanese version of the New York Yankees—the Yomiuri Giants.

Lopez, who just recently turned 29, hit .246 last season with four home runs and 28 RBI in 236 at-bats between the Cleveland Indians and the Chicago White Sox.  He mainly served as a utility backup playing mostly at third base, but he also spent time at first, second and the outfield.

Lopez, who broke into the major leagues in 2004 with the Seattle Mariners, hasn't been a full-time contributor since he left the Mariners in 2010.

He is a lifetime .262 hitter, with 92 home runs, 480 RBI, 421 runs scored and 1,005 hits in 3,841 career at-bats.  Lopez was also an All-Star for Seattle in 2006.

Having personally spent many years in Japan watching my fare share of live Yomiuri Giants games, I think that Lopez will have a successful experience in his new home.  The fields there are much shorter and turn warning-track power hitters in the States into home run hitting monsters in Japan.  

Lopez's deal is still pending a physical, which he just recently took in Houston.  

It may sound crazy, but the Seattle Mariners are bringing back fan-favorite Raul Ibanez with a one-year major league contract after spending the past four seasons on the East Coast with the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees. 

The Seattle Times' Geoff Baker reported the move and the team's plan on Saturday as being:

For now, the plan is to bring him to spring training and see how he fares alongside some of the younger players the Mariners have manning those spots. Where Ibanez fits will depend largely on how well or poorly some of the younger players perform and where the team needs help the most.

The Mariners confirmed the deal — reported as a $2.75 million contract with another possible $1.25 million in incentives — but did not make an official announcement right away because they first had to make a corresponding 40-man roster move to free up room for Ibanez.

It's a nostalgic and heartwarming move of sorts, somewhat akin to the signing of Ken Griffey Jr. back in 2009 when the team hoped to get offensive production on the field and a leader off the field in the clubhouse. 

The move is the second veteran signing in as many days, following Jeremy Bonderman's opting to "give it one last shot" on Friday.  

Meanwhile, last week somewhere nestled between the despair of losing Josh Hamilton and the cautious optimism of trading for Kendrys Morales, another name quietly came off the big board of free agents. 

Indeed, it appears that former Seibu Lions shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima will be going to Oakland next season, according to The Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com):

Nakajima agreed to a $6.5 million, two-year contract. The deal also includes a $5.5 million option for a third season, one of the people said.

Nakajima, a seven-time Pacific League All-Star, has a .302 batting average with 149 home runs, 664 RBIs and 134 stolen bases over 11 seasons with Seibu.

I must confess, this one hurt a bit more than most because I believe he could have helped the Mariners in 2013 but instead ended up signing with a division rival, didn't cost a ton of money and, on a personal level, was one of my favorite players to watch while living in Japan a few years back.   

Understand this isn't meant to serve as a cheap dig at M's general manager Jack Zduriencik, as I doubt Nakajima was ever high on his list of potential acquisitions, if at all.  Instead, the point I'm trying to make is that after seeing Stephen Drew sign a deal with the Red Sox, Oakland didn't miss a beat and rather methodically signed a solid replacement for a fraction of the price. 

As is often the case with Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics rolled with the punches and have debunked a few myths about team building when compared to fellow division rivals and their ability to spend. 

For you see, if spending money automatically equated to success, then it would be easy to write off the Mariners in comparison to the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. 

Yet Oakland's periodic success pokes its fair share of holes in that theory, as perhaps no other team in baseball makes their money work harder.  Perhaps it's not sustainable every year, but it certainly makes the most of a challenging financial situation. 

So today I tip my hat to Billy Beane and his staff with their "Moneyball" approach as they continually reinvent the A's on a shoe-string budget and occasionally outhustle and muscle richer division rivals. 

The brilliance of the Nakajima move is that he will either end up being a steal to help fill the A's need at shortstop or at worst a pricey utility player who can be cut loose in two year's time...low risk, high reward. 

At this point you may be tempted to ask one of two questions:"Why pick on Jack Z following the Morales-Vargas trade?" or "Could 'Moneyball' work in Seattle?"

While it may seem crazy, I will now attempt to answer both at the same time. 

First off, Jack Z's trade for Morales reaffirmed that he can get a deal completed, which a little more than a week ago looked like a tall order; meanwhile, if we look closely at some of the M's more recent offseason moves, such as signing pitchers Hisashi Iwakuma and Oliver Perez, have arguably worked well to the point that both were re-signed this winter. 

Perhaps this year Jason Bay surprises everyone and rebounds after his disastrous stint in New York?

Perhaps the recently signed Jeremy Bonderman rebounds after Tommy John surgery?

Maybe Raul Ibanez has something left in the tank?

Maybe, maybe not, but at least it won't cost the Mariners an arm and a leg to find out. 

So as much as we all like to poke fun at such moves, the good news is that they too fall within the low-risk, high-reward spectrum.

The key moving forward is having the good fortune of finding the right players consistently enough to field a winning team, which is something that even Oakland struggles with from year to year, but that never stops them from being competitive both on and off the field.

Hopefully, Jack Z is getting there, but there is one other key obstacle I believe he needs to overcome.

Billy Beane is a man who continually looks to optimize his roster and rarely considers anyone untouchable which is a stark contrast to Jack Z, who is reluctant to deal prospects, according to Larry Stone of The Seattle Times.

Following his conversation with Jack, Stone concludes the real issue is timing:

In the end, it's less a timing issue than it is a talent evaluation issue. It's OK to trade your prospects, even the good ones, if you get the right player(s) back. And it's OK to keep your prospects, if they blossom into quality players. The Mariners don't have the greatest track record on either front. Zduriencik needs to be right this time around.

I can also imagine Jack's reluctance involves a little bit of pride. 

In some ways, those prized prospects are his babies and perhaps his legacy in Seattle regardless of how things work out. 

Unlike Beane, who is well established and can afford to make a mistake or two at this stage of his tenure, you have to figure that Jack Z is walking on eggshells in wanting to be absolutely certain to avoid making any mistakes with the likes of a Dustin Ackley or Taijuan Walker...players he drafted and in all likelihood deep down believes will validate his time with the Mariners.

Notice the only notable young player he's dealt away thus far was Michael Pineda, someone he inherited. 

Do I believe the Mariners need to ship off all of their prospects to turn things around?

No, but holding on to all of them like cherished collectibles while waiting for them to mature down the road could prove problematic if the big club continues to struggle in the present. 

Once again, I don't envy Jack, but it might be time to let go a little and take a chance. 

The Morales trade was a good first step that should buy him a little more time and space while perhaps serving as the first move in a series yet to come, but let's not go so far as considering it bold. 

Couple that with the Bay, Bonderman and now Ibanez signings and you're left with the feeling that Jack is going to keep using a lot of duck tape and crazy glue to hold together/cover holes on his roster. 

It might work, but eventually you get the feeling that the M's will have to invest in something a little more substantial that's built to last or at least for more than a year or two. 

When the time comes, I hope Jack has the courage to not let the big spenders get him down, but instead steal a page from his rival's playbook and optimize his roster with moves that will strengthen the Mariners' foundation for hopefully years to come. 

Rick Porcello and Rick O'Connell, forever linked by the Spear of Osiris.  What am I talking about?  Why am I so obsessed with paralleling film and sport?  Don't ask questions to which the answer is...well, pointless.  Just bear with me.

Rick O'Connell, of course, is the protagonist of The Mummy franchise.  Rick Porcello, on the other hand, is the lead actor in this year's offseason for the Detroit Tigers.  What Rick Porcello really is, is another matter entirely.  Rick Porcello is the Spear of Osiris.

All through The Mummy Returns, Rick and his group are in possession of a random, golden scepter for which its purpose is largely unknown.  Other than the fact that it's made of solid gold, a point Jonathan goes through great lengths to point out, it's true purpose is a complete mystery and is, for the most part, completely overlooked and ignored. 

It's true power?  Nothing big really, other than being the Spear of Osiris and the only weapon capable of destroying Dwyane "The Rock" Johnson's CGI-cousin, the Scorpion King.

The point is, the Tigers also do not realize what they truly have in Rick Porcello.  Is he a shiny, golden scepter with more of a superficial purpose than practical use, or is he the key to everything?

Personally, I think he's the key to unlocking a World Series for the Detroit Tigers, and here's why:

HOW TO GET THE BEST VALUE FOR RICK PORCELLO

I just wrote an article about how I think the Tigers should hang on to Porcello and not be too eager to bypass his potential, but like the great Jim Moriarty, "I'm sooooo changeable!" 

One of many flaws, in fact.  But, let me explain why I've changed my tune:  I'm all on board with defense.  I only want Porcello gone if it signals a complete overhaul of the middle infield.  Over the past two seasons, Jhonny Peralta and Omar Infante have a combined 11 defensive runs saved (DRS). 

For the uninitiated, DRS is a new sabremetric stat which encompasses a player's all-around defensive value.  It is the best stat in determining a player's TRUE value on defense.  Eleven runs over two seasons?  For two players? 

For comparison's sake, a "great" defender saves between eight-10 runs with his defense per season, while a Gold Glover is more in the range of 15 plus.  Obviously, the performances of Peralta and Infante leave a lot of room for improvement.

It’s important not to let other, particular Sabermetric stats convince you that Jhonny Peralta is a stellar defensive player.  Take, for example, ultimate zone rating (UZR) and revised zone rating (RZR).  RZR can be simplified as the amount of balls hit into a player’s zone that are converted into outs by the player. 

Peralta leads the league in this category, at .850, but all this really says is that he converts balls hit into his zone.  It doesn’t take into account that his zone is very small and typically, does not get to many balls.

The out of zone plays made (OOZ) stat further details his athletic struggles.  Peralta, since 2011, has 104 plays made outside of his zone (a zone is basically a representation of a particular player’s range at his position), whereas an elite defender like JJ Hardy has made 159 out of zone plays. 

To simplify, Jhonny Peralta is the Denzel Washington of shortstops: He’s great at what he does, that basic role he is so accustomed to doing, but once he’s asked to extend beyond his comfort zone he rarely accepts the challenge, nor does he succeed.  Jhonny Peralta ranging to his right, deep behind third base on a dive, and throwing a rope to first for the out is the equivalent of Denzel Washington playing the role of weak-willed subservient with a possible accent from anywhere.  It's just not in his repertoire. 

How do the Tigers improve?  Speak of the Devil, introducing JJ Hardy.  Hardy, since 2011, has saved 26 runs defensively, compared to Peralta’s one. 

Hardy also bring a good balance of offense and defense as he consistently puts up 20-30 HRs, albeit without stellar averages, typically in the .260 range.  Lots of pop and great defense will be just what the Tigers need.

Trade Proposal:  Rick Porcello to the Orioles for JJ Hardy, straight swap.

FINISH OFF THE DEFENSIVE MAKEOVER

As I stated at the beginning, I’m only in favor of moving Porcello if it represents a culture change on the defensive side.   Adding JJ Hardy isn’t enough.

Success in baseball is very dependent upon having a strong backbone, being rock-solid up the middle.  Alex Avila, JJ Hardy, Omar Infante, and Austin Jackson is good, but the Tigers need to make it better.  Insert, Brendan Ryan from the Mariners.

I’ve documented that Peralta and Infante have combined to save only 11 runs defensive over the past two seasons. 

Hardy and Ryan?  71.  That’s a difference of 60 runs saved over two seasons.  That’s a devouring number.  Ryan also has converted 155 out of zone balls into outs, very similar to Hardy’s 159.

Unfortunately, Ryan batted below .200 last season, but this level of defense is undeniable.  Ryan’s hollow bat will be more than covered in what will be a terrifying lineup with the return of Victor Martinez and the addition of Torii Hunter.  One weak spot will hardly derail this train.

All the Tigers would need to do is place Cabrera and Fielder a bit closer to the lines in order to defend against doubles and triples, and let the tandem of Hardy and Ryan clean up everything else.  Creating a backbone with these four players would give the Tigers the strongest defense up the middle in the league.

DISREGARD OUTFIELD PLATOON ADDITION, FOCUS ON LEFTY SPECIALIST

Is it really not that obvious that Avisail Garcia will be called up once again this September?  Why are there all these rumors about adding a right-handed bat to platoon with Andy Dirks in the outfield, when that player will become useless upon Garcia’s call-up?  The Tigers should not be wasting resources on an obsolete addition.

What should they be doing?  Lefty specialist out of the bullpen.  Notice how I didn’t say a LHP out of the pen.  Right handers can neutralize left-handed hitters just as effectively, if they are the proper type of pitcher. 

If Porcello is shipped, Smyly will assume the fifth starter role, leaving an empty spot in the pen.

Ideal addition?  Eric O’Flaherty.  But, seeing as how he recently put up the only season in MLB history with at least 70 appearances and an ERA below 1.00 I don’t think the Braves will be eager to ship him off. 

But, obviously, there are other options.  Ernesto Frieri of the Angels, Alberto Cabrera of the Cubs, and Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates are all RHP who held lefties to a BAA below .140.  Those are stellar numbers. 

Hanrahan will take the most to acquire, and I’ve heard the Tigers aren’t interested in him.  Cabrera would require the least amount of compensation but could provide the biggest boost.

My personal choice?  Re-acquire Charlie Furbush.  I know, I know, how gross is trading back for a player you dealt only two seasons ago? 

It's like going back to that girl who cheated on you because you know you just will never do any better.  It's a kick in the groin.  But, in sports, you have to have short-term memory loss.  Put your pride aside, make like Leonard Shelby without the tattoos, and sack up.

Furbush allowed only 14 total bases to LH hitters while maintaining a .147 BAA.  His ERA against lefties was 0.79.  Bring.  Him.  Back.

Trade Proposal:  Jhonny Peralta, Brennan Boesch, and Casey Crosby to the Mariners for Brendan Ryan and Charlie Furbush.

WHAT IT LEAVES

Even if the Tigers don't add a lefty to the bullpen, that addition may still come from inside the clubhouse.  Adam Wilk shined in his final 10 starts at AAA Toledo last season, posting a 1.71 ERA with about one K per inning. 

He's reportedly added a lot of polish to his breaking ball and may even challenge Smyly for that last spot in the rotation this spring.  He'll likely lose out, but I think he'll be ready for a bullpen role and should be given a shot to do so.

Omar Infante remains the odd-man out, with Jeff Kobernus ready to assume the utility man role, and he could be used to fetch a prospect.  Plenty of teams are looking for productive second baseman.

In the end, I doubt the true meaning of Rick Porcello's value to the Tigers is written on a wall in hieroglyphics somewhere, but Detroit will be wise to maximize Porcello's value and use him to begin an overhaul on the defensive side of the ball. 

Pitching and defense wins championships, and these moves would make the Tigers the most well-rounded team in baseball.