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Final Predictions for Every Mariner Spring Training Position Battle

Mar 22, 2013

With Opening Day just around the corner, the Seattle Mariners' roster is starting to take shape. As of March 20, Mike Zunino, Logan Bawcom and Eric Thames were the most recent casualties from the major league camp, with Zunino and Bawcom being reassigned to minor league camp and Thames being optioned to Triple-A Tacoma.

With that in mind, the Mariners have had several battles going on this spring for key roles on the roster. The back end of the rotation was the biggest question mark heading into the spring, but questions for backup outfield jobs and the leadoff spot in the lineup also lingered.

So who will be the winners of each of these battles come Opening Day? 

Fourth and Fifth Rotation Spots

This has been one of the most interesting battles all spring.

First, you had incumbent "starters" Blake Beavan, Erasmo Ramirez and Hector Noesi. Beavan has been pleasantly successful this spring, actually registering more strikeouts than normal. For the spring, he has been 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and nine strikeouts in 14.0 innings pitched.

Ramirez has been even better this spring, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and nine strikeouts in 12.0 innings pitched.

Then there's Hector Noesi. Let's just say that Mr. Noesi will not be included in this conversation and leave it at that, shall we? Great, let's move on.

Next, you had the highly touted pitching prospects in the Mariners' farm system. Young hurlers Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and Brandon Maurer all had hopes of potentially cracking the Opening Day rotation.

But as of March 21, only Maurer remains. He has been fantastic all spring, going 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA and 15 strikeouts over 15.0 innings pitched. Maurer may have never pitched over the Double-A level, but he has made a viable case for a spot in the rotation this spring.

You had veterans Jeremy Bonderman and Jon Garland as well, who were brought in over the offseason to help provide some depth for the rotation. Yet both were coming off long-term injuries and offered no guarantee to perform.

Bonderman has seen mixed results so far this spring, going 2-0 with a 7.20 ERA and five strikeouts in 10.0 innings pitched. Garland, meanwhile, has been a nice surprise, much like Kevin Millwood was for the Mariners last year. He is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA over 6.0 innings pitched and has made a very strong case to be included in the Mariners' rotation.

Garland's future will most likely be decided sooner rather than later—especially with a clause in his contract saying that he needs to be made aware whether he has made the starting rotation or not:

Jon Garland says he expects the #Mariners to tell him by tomorrow whether he's made rotation. That's when his out-clause can be triggered.

— Geoff Baker (@gbakermariners) March 22, 2013

With all things considered, Garland has been very similar to Kevin Millwood from last season. He was brought in as a veteran presence and outperformed expectations. Expect the Mariners to inform Garland he will make the rotation, thus leaving one spot left for the remaining candidates.

As much as Mariners fans will want to see Maurer get his chance now, Beavan has done nothing to lose his spot in the rotation, either. With Beavan more likely to be able to throw 200 innings now, expect him to earn the fifth spot in the rotation, with Brandon Maurer and Erasmo Ramirez waiting in the wings.

Final Prediction: Jon Garland and Blake Beavan 

Fourth and Fifth Outfield Spots

As interesting as the battle for the starting rotation has been, the battle for the outfield has been that and then some.

With Eric Thames being optioned to Triple-A, the Mariners are down to seven outfielders competing for five spots. Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Saunders, Mike Morse, Jason Bay, Casper Wells, Raul Ibanez and Carlos Peguero have all shown their highlights this spring and have all made their cases.

Of the seven, Mike Morse has been the most impressive at the plate, batting .333 with six home runs and 11 RBI, making Mariners fans feel more comfortable about letting go of John Jaso for the slugger this offseason.

The most surprising entries here are that of Carlos Peguero and Jason Bay.  

Peguero has long been known for his power, but he's struggled with plate discipline for the majority of his career. However, this spring, he has been an all new hitter at the plate, batting .341 with three home runs and five RBI. Although he still has 14 strikeouts, he has shown improved discipline and has been making a strong push to be included in the conversation for a backup job in the outfield.

Jason Bay has been nothing short of a success story as well, batting .323 with two home runs and four RBI. He is healthier than he has been in years and is no longer burdened by a fanbase expecting him to live up to a monster contract. With that in mind, Bay has really shown a lot of promise this spring and has kept his name in the ring just as much as Peguero.

With all that said, Franklin Gutierrez, Mike Morse and Michael Saunders have been penned as the starters for a while, especially with the success of Morse in spring training, Saunders in the World Baseball Classic and the health of Gutierrez. This leaves Bay, Peguero, Wells and Ibanez for two spots.

In the offseason, the Mariners brought in Raul Ibanez to be a much-needed veteran leader for a very young team. What the Mariners didn't expect was for him to put up the numbers he has so far this spring. With a solid .333 batting average with three home runs and nine RBI, expect Ibanez to stick with the team as the fourth outfielder/matchup nightmare.

Finally, with the amount of moving around that manager Eric Wedge has done with Jason Bay this spring, expect him to be the fifth outfielder come Opening Day. Casper Wells may offer more versatility for defensive purposes, but that doesn't seem to be much of a concern with Guti and Saunders roaming two-thirds of the outfield.

As much as Mariner fans would love to see Wells get a full-time chance with the team, he is going to be tough-luck-loser No. 1. Wells has hit only .200 over the spring, which has been even more magnified with almost everyone hitting this spring for the Mariners.

Prediction: Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez 

Leadoff Spot

The final battle for the Mariners this spring wasn't a position battle, but rather the battle for the leadoff spot in the lineup. 

Of the candidates, the most seriously considered at the beginning of the spring were Michael Saunders, Dustin Ackley and Franklin Gutierrez. What Mariners fans didn't expect to see was a Jason Bay sighting at the top of the order.

It has been a very interesting spring, to say the least, for the Mariners atop the order. And nobody really knows if they are any closer to having their leadoff hitter than they were at the beginning of the spring.

At this point, look for the Mariners to go with Gutierrez at the top of the order for a few reasons.

First, it allows Eric Wedge to drop Ackley lower in the lineup so that he may continue to refine his swing into the hitter everyone expects him to be. Secondly, Saunders may have the speed to be a leadoff hitter, but his power and still-unproven batting average suggest he would be better suited batting lower in the lineup, much like Ackley.

Manager Wedge has been saying all spring he wanted a more balanced lineup, and placing a pair of hitters like Ackley and Saunders lower in the lineup does just that.

Prediction: Franklin Gutierrez 

Richard Sherman Is Acting Like a Toddler, but We Need to Give Him Space to Grow

Mar 13, 2013

I promised myself I wouldn't write about Richard Sherman and his off-field behavior again this winter.  

Honestly, I promised. 

Even after I first saw Sherman bickering with ESPN's Skip Bayless, I still felt the urge to resist.  The whole incident was embarrassing for all parties and why add more gasoline to the fire?

Besides, by last Thursday night, John McGrath at The News Tribune brilliantly questioned whether Sherman was a victim of identity theft:

It was eerie, Sherm. Here was this jerk on ESPN, purporting to be Richard Sherman, and as expertly as he mimicked your voice, it was obvious he wasn’t the real Richard Sherman, the product of a hardscrabble neighborhood in Compton, Calif. who earned a scholarship to Stanford, graduated with a communications degree, and went on to become the kick-butt cornerback acknowledged as the heart and soul of the Seahawks’ defense.

That Richard Sherman is an authentic wonder — a role model for kids, and an inspiration for their parents. That Richard Sherman makes me proud to be a sportswriter. There aren’t many occupations affording rumpled old duffs like me a chance to converse with some of the best and brightest young talents in the land, and I’ve got one of them.

In two short paragraphs, McGrath gives you everything you need to know.

Yet the more I thought about it, I started to wonder not whether Sherman was a victim so much as someone testing the limits and boundaries of the universe, much like...a toddler. 

For anyone who has experience raising small children, the year roughly between age two and three is a revelation for both you and your child.  There are highs and lows of epic proportions that periodically defy all logic and lead you to question your abilities as a parent and the sanity of your child. 

In short, the "Terrible Twos" isn't some old wives tale or urban myth, it's very, very real.

So how does this apply to arguably one of the NFL's up and coming stars?

Sherman, after his second year in the league, is all over the place this winter in both good and bad ways. One minute, he's having a pillow fight with Darrelle Revis on Twitter, the next, he's speaking to kids at his old high school in Compton, California. 

It's funny to think that everyone was all in an uproar about his appearance on "First Take" on Thursday, when just the day before, Sherman visited three high schools in Los Angeles, including his alma mater in Compton to promote Students With a Goal (SWAG), according to Clare Farnsworth at Seahawks.com who reported:

Sherman feels it’s his place – his turn, his obligation – to give back. Whether it’s time, advice, even equipment, he wants to be there for these students that now are where he once was.

“They know I’m tangible, they know I’m here,” Sherman said. “I’m not hard to find, I’m not hard to reach. Any chance I can get to give back – whether it be cleats, helmets or just someone to speak – anything I can do to help I try to get done. Because without this place, I don’t think I’d be the man or the player I am today.

“When you feel like you owe people things – in the same sense with your family and your parents – you want to give and reward them or repay them for everything they’ve done for you.”

For months now I've been struggling to find the proper way of digesting all of this.  

Right here before us is one of the more intriguing people you are ever going to find in professional sports and I can't tell whether I love him or loathe him on any given day.  Unlike Russell Wilson, who you could basically set your watch to, Sherman is a runaway train.  One minute, you want to hug him for his work with school kids, and the next, you want to send him to his room for acting like boorish brute on TV.

Through it all, you question everything and then wonder if you're looking too closely at things or not examining things closely enough. 

His on-field play is other-worldly, but did he do it while taking PEDs?

He managed to successfully defend his innocence against the NFL, yet why flaunt it?

Meanwhile if he's so smart off the field, then why is he wasting his time fighting with Skip Bayless and Darrelle Revis?

Is this winter about self promotion or self improvement?

John Boyle at the Everett Herald offers his take and makes some solid points:

As far as any of us know, Sherman isn't breaking the law, he isn't being a jerk to his fans, he isn't out getting drunk and making a fool of himself at clubs—he's talking. OK, he's talking a lot, but if anyone is being hurt by this, it's Sherman, and he's smart enough to know what he's doing, so if his goal is to get attention by being a villain of sorts, why do any of us really care if he's playing at an All-Pro level?

Boyle then helps provide us with an answer to arguably the biggest question about Sherman for 'Hawks fans:

So is Sherman a role model or a trash talker? Well he's both, and there's really no reason for him to choose one or the other.

When Sherman is on a Twitter rant, or making news with outlandish TV interviews, you'll hear people say, "He's better than that." No, he isn't. He is that; it's part of him. He doesn't want to be "better than that," because that Ali-esque persona is just one part of who Sherman is, as is the big-hearted part that gives back to this community at his home town. It's not an either-or with Sherman. It's the whole package, take it or leave it. And as somebody whose job involves talking with athletes, I'll gladly take it, and if you're a Seahawks fan, you sure as hell should too.

Understand that I'm willing to accept the whole package, just as any parent does with their child.  That is especially true in Sherman's case as he holds so much promise that it's hard to deny him the attention that he continues to crave. 

Deep down though, I want the very best for Sherman and I also want him to continue being honest.  But is being too honest, hurting him?

I honestly don't think he knows anymore than the rest of us as Boyle believes and that concerns me. 

No matter what age we are, we think we know it all.  Yet the harsh truth is that wisdom is often gained through hardship and struggle over time as we evolve.  While Sherman no doubt has endured many hardships building up to this moment in time, it seems now that he's creating demons of people he need not bother both on the field and off it.  

Sherman isn't competing against Darrelle Revis, he's competing against wide receivers like Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, etc.

As for debating Skip Bayless, I think we can all agree that's just foolishness in more ways than I care to list out here.  

Finally, what concerns me perhaps more than anything is that in a strange way, it almost feels like Sherman is working on borrowed time given how much he's done this offseason both good and bad.

Why is he in such a rush to take on the world? 

Before our eyes, he's grown in leaps and bounds, yet the chip on his shoulder keeps getting bigger as he seemingly can't let a day go by to give his own shoulders a chance to catch up.  Perhaps he believes that the world is filled with villains—both real and imaginary—for him to conquer?

I suppose all we can do is watch and wonder from the sidelines while remaining optimistic and patient.  One minute beaming with joy, the other cringing in horror as Sherman finds his way through the world. 

While we wait though, I see no harm in making one small request.  All I want is for Richard Sherman is to not only be true to himself, but with each and every kid who looks up to all 6'3" inches of him.

If he continues to do that while living up to a standard of excellence he has set for himself both on the field and off, those kids he spoke to last week will respect him far more for his honesty and integrity than all the pairs of cleats money can buy.

Even Skip Bayless would probably have a hard time arguing with that.   

Fingers crossed that Sherm figures that out sooner rather than later.  

Seattle Mariners: Could the M's Have Logjam at Catcher Someday?

Mar 11, 2013

I don't know about you, but I'm starting to feel pretty good about the Seattle Mariners this spring and quite frankly that frightens me.

After a decade of some pretty dreadful baseball, not only do I think the team might be fairly competitive this season, but it could actually give us something really good to cheer about in a few years' time.

Case in point, the situation at catcher.  

I will confess that I've gone back and forth on this one in recent months, but between Jesus Montero, Mike Zunino and now John Hicks, it looks like we should have at least one decent backstop in the not-too-distant future.

Today not too many people see Montero catching long term as it would appear that Mike Zunino is the heir apparent behind the plate, yet is it possible that John Hicks might be the biggest surprise of all? 

Ryan Divish over at The News Tribune wrote an interesting piece on Hicks that got me thinking of the possibilities, especially after reading the following excerpt:  

There is a no-nonsense attitude to Hicks. He works. He plays. He leads. Then he repeats it the next day.

That pattern has made him successful in his first two seasons in the Seattle organization.

Last year, in his first full season, Hicks played 121 games in Advanced Class A High Desert — catching 98. He hit .312 (158-for-506) with 32 doubles, 15 homers and 79 RBI with a .351 on-base-percentage and a .472 slugging percentage.

“I thought I had a decent year offensively,” he said. “I don’t strike out often. I just try and put the ball in play.”

While the offensive numbers were good, Hicks’ defense was outstanding. Of 106 baserunners who attempted to steal against him, Hicks threw out 57. His 53.8 caught-stealing percentage was the highest among full-season minor league catchers last season.

Granted it's hard to put too much stock in numbers at High Desert given the number of prospects that have cooled off considerably upon getting promoted to Double-A, but what has me intrigued is Hicks' defensive game.

With all due respect to Zunino, if Hicks in another year or two can bring that kind of defense with him to Seattle along with a decent bat, perhaps Zunino takes the route of Craig Biggio?

For those of us old enough to remember, Biggio started out in the majors as a catcher for the Houston Astros before moving to second base and eventually the outfield.  All told, it served him well during a long and successful career that may lead him to Cooperstown some day; however, I suppose I might be getting a little ahead of myself here.

From a more rational standpoint, today I feel like the situation at catcher is a more fluid one rather than a two-horse race with Zunino closing in on Montero while Kelly Shoppach fills the gap as a backup.

This year, I'd imagine Montero will be given a fair amount of space to prove himself, but next year?

Next year could get interesting. 

If Zunino continues to show the promise that got him all the way to Double-A Jackson in a matter of a few short weeks, it's quite possible that this time next year Montero could be tinkering with a different glove when playing the field or perhaps becoming the team's everyday DH. 

As for Hicks, his journey will likely take a little more time.  Assuming that Zunino starts the season at Triple-A Tacoma, Hicks should be be given his fair shot at Double-A Jackson; thus establishing a rather systematic pipeline for the M's over the next two years. 

By 2015, it's possible that Montero becomes the team's permanent DH, Zunino the starting catcher and Hicks the backup who perhaps picks up a few starts when his former college teammate at UVA Danny Hultzen pitches. 

Whether Hicks has a higher ceiling remains to be seen, but being a solid defensive catcher who makes consistent contact and doesn't strike out often is a good starting point. 

Today, though, it's wishful thinking, but in many ways it might explain a few things. 

For starters, trading away John Jaso for Michael Morse. 

Jaso was arguably one of the team's better hitters last year, but reactions were mixed when he went to Oakland in part of a three-team deal for Morse.  Regardless of what Morse can do for the Mariners, did Jaso really have a future in Seattle with both Montero and Zunino jockeying for the same position?

Second, if we take that point further, by giving Montero his space this year the M's can see once and for all if he really is capable of being an everyday catcher.  Jaso's presence alone would likely have complicated things, especially if Montero struggled either at the plate or behind it.  This year there should be no excuses.

Finally, if Montero flops, Zunino should be able to fill that void with Hicks on deck right behind him.  If Montero succeeds, then the M's may need to reconsider a few things, which is a "problem" I think the team could learn to live with and adjust.     

Once again wishful thinking, but at the very least somewhere in the mix the Mariners should have their catcher of the future either in Seattle or close to it sooner rather than later. 

Seattle Supersonics: Sacramento Strikes Back in Fight for Kings

Mar 1, 2013

Did you hear that?

Sounded to me like the grinding of gears on the Seattle SuperSonics' return to the NBA Thursday night, as Sacramento mayor Kevin Johnson announced a plan for 24 Hour Fitness founder Mark Mastrov and billionaire Ron Burkle to bid for the Kings. 

Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver reported that Johnson, during his State of the City address:

Pledged to keep the Kings in Sacramento in the wake of a purchase and sale agreement between the Maloof family and an investment group led by Valiant Capital’s Chris Hansen and Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer that has filed paperwork to relocate the franchise to Seattle.

“With all due respect to Seattle,” Johnson said. “Let me be perfectly, crystal clear: it is not going to be this team. Not our team. No way.”

In many ways we expected this day to come and kudos to Johnson for continuing his fight. 

But now what?

The Seattle Times Bob Condotta added that specifics on the actual offer are hard to come by at the moment:

Johnson did not offer details of Mastrov's offer other than to say "my understanding is that it will be a very strong and competitive bid."

The Seattle group paid $341 million to purchase 65 percent of the team and also put down a $30 million nonrefundable payment.

Thursday, no specifics were announced about the funding or the cost of an arena, though it is expected the city of Sacramento would contribute more than $200 million, which will still need approval from the Sacramento City Council.

By knowing what Hansen and Ballmer bid, doesn't this technically give Mastrov and Burkle a bit of an advantage?

Will the Mastrov and Burkle group be subjected to similar terms and conditions as Hansen and Ballmer?

If the Sacramento bid is higher, will Hansen and Ballmer be offered a chance to counter?

Will the Maloofs continue to accept non-refundable payments from bidders without actually selling the team?

Could Hansen and Ballmer, and by extension the city of Seattle, end up with egg on their face thanks to the NBA?

Will David Stern and the NBA allow all of this to happen while laughing all the way?

For today the answers to most, if not all, of these questions are hard to find.  What's funny is that Stern doesn't think the final decision will be based on money, yet seems keen on watching the drama unfold as the owners decide in a few weeksSI's Golliver explains:

“I don’t see any scenario in which both cities are happy here,” Stern said, ruling out the possibility of expansion to accommodate both cities’ desire to have a franchise.

The NBA’s Board of Governors will meet in New York City on April 18 and 19 to vote on the sale agreement between the Maloofs and the Seattle-group as well as the application for relocation. Johnson said he will be in attendance at the meetings to make his pitch.

“I’ve been assured by the commissioner of the NBA that we will be given full consideration,” Johnson said.

Stern said in Houston that it was “plausible” that a Kings over could win out over Seattle’s agreement but cautioned against this turning into a bidding war, saying that the owners would have a “very open mind” as they weighed the two offers.

“I don’t believe it’s going to come down to economics,” Stern said of the Board of Governors’ consideration of two possible offers. “I think the owners are going to have a tough issue to decide. … We don’t have the predicate for that tough decision yet. It’s going to wait upon Mayor Johnson making good on his statement that there will be an offer. And it’s going to be upon the Sacramento area, a number of the regional municipalities and the various people who have been saying they’ll give the mayor the support he needs.”

Does having a "very open mind" really mean having a "very open wallet?"

The whole ugly spectacle is basically an invitation for all of the owners to choose how they want to maximize and leverage their investment. 

Regardless of which city they choose, it opens the door for owners to hold their respective teams hostage as a means of getting whatever deal they wish.  Otherwise they can phone up the loser from the Sacramento/Seattle tussle and talk to them. 

It's wickedly fiendish, but brilliant from a business standpoint.  

"You don't want to help build a new arena?  Well, the folks in ..."  

What should be upsetting to us is that two cities, both filled with loyal fans, are going to be stuck on the sidelines having to watch this soap opera/game show play out while knowing the loser's future will be the punchline in the aforementioned quote.

How do you feel knowing that your heart will be used and leverage?

The "open mind" of Clay Bennett and the rest of his fellow owners possesses the power to rip your heart right out of your chest in a matter of weeks.

What happens if the unthinkable happens again?

How many more times can Chris Hansen and Steve Ballmer, or someone like them, write the Maloofs a non-refundable check?

When Chris Hansen came out of the woodwork a little over a year ago I was skeptical to say the least, but to his credit he has slowly but surely made significant strides on all fronts in making the Sonics' return a reality.

Will he stay true to the course if this deal falls through?

Given that we've come so far during the past year I can't help but have a few doubts, perhaps a little guilt, and wonder, is it all worth it?

I also can't help but wonder, how many more times can one city have David Stern and his "open-minded" owners twist the knife in our backs?

Perhaps time heals all wounds, but when those wounds keep getting cut open they can either make you feel worse than before or become scars that change you forever. 

How you deal with them is up to you, but if this deal dies, so with it does my hope for Seattle ever getting the Sonics back.