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Julius Peppers
Active, Disruptive Julius Peppers vs. Rams Exactly What Packers Defense Needs

After a mostly invisible preseason debut in rain-drenched Tennessee, Julius Peppers rebounded against the St. Louis Rams Saturday to look more like the active, disruptive edge player the Green Bay Packers need this season.
The 34-year-old Peppers played into the second quarter, seeing 22 snaps over two series with the rest of the first-team defense. While his 10 soggy snaps against the Titans in monsoon-like conditions a week ago were underwhelming, Peppers gave the Packers defense seven positive plays and at least two pass disruptions in St. Louis, based off my own film study of the contest.
Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded Peppers at plus-1.8, good for the fourth-best grade on the Green Bay defense against the Rams. He was credited with one quarterback hit and one "stop," which PFF considers a tackle constituting an offensive failure.
Snaps | QB Disruptions | Stops | PFF Grade | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 at TEN | 10 | 0 | 0 | -2.3 |
Week 2 at STL | 22 | 1 | 1 | +1.8 |
TOTAL | 32 | 1 | 1 | -0.5 |
Peppers' performance was clearly a step above his debut in Tennessee, which drew criticism after Ted Thompson's prized free-agent pickup hardly influenced the contest.
“We’ll see about that, we'll see about that,” Peppers told Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, when asked a week ago if he can still impact games at age 34. “I’m not really going to get into too much discussing what I can and can’t do. I’m going to let the film speak for it.”
The film from St. Louis spoke in much kinder terms for Peppers.
On Green Bay's third defensive snap, Peppers looked quick and agile as he blew past the Rams' right tackle to the inside.

Had this play not been a designed three-step drop and quick throw from Sam Bradford, Peppers would have likely caused a significant collision at the quarterback. He came off the blind side clean, and there was no running back assigned to provide a double-team on the edge. Instead of the play resulting in a sack, however, Peppers' effort counted for nothing, as Bradford quickly found Tavon Austin underneath for 14 yards.
A play later, Peppers played the backside of a cutback run and cleaned up the running back for a two-yard loss. Penetration from the entirety of the Packers defensive line forced a play that began to the right to come back to the left, and Peppers was waiting.
Later on the drive, Green Bay received more penetration against the run, and Peppers shed his block on the backside to help stop the play for another loss.
The Packers then got off the field in part due to Peppers' pressure against the pass.
On 1st-and-25, Peppers hand-fought the right tackle, pushing his man into the pocket and forcing Bradford to backpedal and throw quick underneath. Clay Matthews was also in pursuit after spinning free from the left tackle. With both Peppers and Matthews bearing down, Bradford had no choice but to get rid of the football.
After the Rams combo-blocked him on second down, Peppers created enough initial pressure on 3rd-and-21 to force Bradford to unload a designed screen before he wanted to. The attempt bounced off the turf, and the Rams sent in the the punting unit.
The play the Packers will like the most came on the third play of the defense's second series.
On 2nd-and-7, Peppers beat rookie Greg Robinson—the second overall pick in the 2014 draft—with speed and flexibility off the edge.

Quick off the snap after lining up with his hand on the ground, Peppers immediately gets to the outside shoulder of Robinson. He keeps him there by chopping his hands through the rookie's. At this point, offensive tackles can regain the upper hand by forcing an advancing pass-rusher up the field and away from the quarterback. But Peppers—suddenly looking like a 28-year-old in his prime—bends around the corner like all elite pass-rushers can, meeting Bradford in the pocket. He makes contact right as Bradford is attempting to throw, and the wobbly attempt is then nearly intercepted by A.J. Hawk in the middle of the field.
These are the kind of plays the Packers envisioned when Thompson gave Peppers a three-year deal worth up to $30 million, including a $7.5 million signing bonus, back in March.
The rest of Peppers' appearance was mostly quiet, although he did set the edge against one run. And on Bradford's touchdown pass to Lance Kendricks, Peppers fired off the ball and nearly split a double-team to pressure the quarterback.
He certainly wasn't great on every snap.
The Rams caught him up the field on one inside run on the first drive. He had a similar mistake against the Titans, which helped cause Shonn Greene's touchdown run. On the same series, St. Louis successfully blocked him one-on-one on both 3rd-and-long and the ensuing fourth down conversion.
A drive later, the Rams had little problem staying in front of him on the first play. Peppers also lost contain on a pass rush when he spun inside down in the red zone, but Bradford couldn't deliver after beginning his rollout to the right.
These are mostly minor mistakes, but they play into the performance as a whole.
Essentially, Peppers was exactly who he has been for the majority of his career: a dominant, game-changing player on a handful of snaps and an afterthought on others. The Packers can handle that assessment, because they need someone who can deliver the occasional impact play opposite Matthews.
Like Saturday, the positive sum of his impact plays should, in theory, outweigh the negatives of his other empty snaps.
His second appearance also gave a quick glimpse of how the Packers might use Peppers. While only so much should be taken away from preseason games, when coordinators like Dom Capers don't show their full hand, Peppers lined up on the right side for 11 snaps and on the left for the other 11, flip-flopping with Matthews frequently. He did not play defensive tackle in the nickel or dime looks, but he did put his hand on the ground for six snaps, all coming on the second series.
Peppers also dropped into coverage once, on the second play of the first drive. He was not targeted.
Capers and the Packers will likely get more creative with him when the regular season begins Sept. 4 in Seattle.
"Eventually we're going to have real games for everybody to talk about," Peppers told Dunne.
For now, a sprightly, more disruptive showing against the Rams has helped Peppers turn a critical conversation of his remaining abilities into a hopeful one.
Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report.
Julius Peppers' Freakish Athletic Ability Is an Ideal Fit for Packers Defense

At 34 years old, Julius Peppers can still run like a tight end, explode off the line of scrimmage with an electric first step and showcase his freakish athletic ability to chase down the quarterback or make a play in the open field.
And in Green Bay, that’s an ideal fit for Dom Capers’ multiple defensive schemes.
“To be able to stand up, drop a little bit, sometimes put my hand down and rush in a four-man front…a little bit of everything,” Peppers said Thursday after practice. “It suits my skill set perfectly.”
Peppers, who signed a three-year deal with the Packers worth up to $26 million ($7.5 million guaranteed) after being released from the Bears in a salary-cap move this offseason, looked noticeably leaner on the field in a Green Bay uniform.
The 13-year veteran told me he started his offseason training earlier this year after making the switch from the 4-3 defensive end position in Chicago to outside linebacker in the Packers’ 3-4 front.
“I wanted to tone up, get a little lighter so I could move better in open space,” Peppers said.

Under Lovie Smith and Mel Tucker in Chicago’s Tampa 2 scheme, Peppers played as a rush end with the ability to kick down inside in the nickel package (five defensive backs on the field) or drop into coverage as a “seam-flat” defender in the Bears’ zone-blitz schemes.
A productive player during his four seasons with the Bears, Peppers racked up 37.5 sacks and three interceptions.
But in Green Bay, Peppers will do much more from a scheme perspective as a rush 'backer in the 30 front or as a creative weapon in the Packers’ sub packages where he can attack the pocket with various stunts as an off-the-ball defender, match up in the passing game or put his hand in the ground to expose one-on-one situations.
Think of Peppers’ versatility as an athlete within a defense that allows Capers to be flexible and generate confusion up front versus protection schemes. That’s when you see the splash plays, the turnovers and the defensive “wins” on third downs.
“Peppers is the biggest freak I have ever been around. He can rush and drop,” an NFL scout told me on Thursday night. “He will also be motivated. If Clay Matthews is healthy, that will be a tough duo to handle.”
In Chicago, Peppers’ game-day reps were up as he played 81.6 percent of the snaps in 2013, 74.5 percent in 2012 and 82.1 percent in 2011.
However, if the Packers can reduce the numbers of total snaps Peppers plays this season (to around 65 percent), the veteran can make an even greater impact with fresh legs and that unique matchup ability he brings to the stadium in critical game situations.
Watching the Packers run through practice, their defensive front looked faster and more athletic (than I saw on tape in 2013) during one-on-one periods and competitive team drills with B.J. Raji, Datone Jones and Mike Daniels having impressive days versus the offense in full gear.

Adding Peppers to that mix—opposite Matthews—just adds more speed and talent for this Green Bay defense versus the run game or when getting up the field to disrupt the pocket.
“Oh my goodness. Like I said, you saw the man run, he’s 34 years old. It’s unfair,” Daniels said after practice. “I’m excited and I’m glad he’s on my side.”
Daniels also talked about the veteran leadership Peppers has brought to the Packers this year with his experience, maturity and practice habits.
“I’ve really learned on how to go about being a professional,” Daniels said. “You get a guy like that; it would be stupid not to watch how he operates.”
Before leaving town, I asked Peppers if he felt there was more to prove, or more questions to answer in terms of how the league views his overall ability at this stage of his career.
The veteran was quick to say his main focus is on proving his value to his teammates and coaches, but he did acknowledge the doubters.
“I hear whispers; I hear certain things about declines and losing a step,” Peppers said. “But I don’t focus on it.
“You can use those things for motivation sometimes, but that’s false motivation for lack of a better term, because at the end of the day your passion for the game and the reasons that you play are really going to get you through it.”
Seven-year NFL veteran Matt Bowen is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report.
Green Bay Packers' Datone Jones Is Set for a Breakout 2014 NFL Campaign

An enraged Datone Jones ruthlessly throws punches at FoxSports.com senior writer Jay Glazer in West Hollywood. MMA training is a small part of an equation that will define success for Jones in 2014. With a healthy slate, increased opportunities and anchoring the defensive front, Datone Jones will be the most improved player for the 2014 Green Bay Packers.
Drafted 26th overall by the Green Bay Packers in the 2013 NFL draft, Jones came to the frozen tundra oozing with potential. With 19 tackles for a loss during his senior year at UCLA, he was expected to create havoc behind the line of scrimmage. Instead, an ankle injury slowed his progression. Head coach Mike McCarthy noticed Jones' promise along with his decline in play at the 2014 NFL Combine. Vic Ketchman of Packers.com quotes McCarthy on Datone Jones:
At the end of the day, Datone Jones needs to be on the field and playing. Datone is a very talented young man. His injury at the end of training camp set him back. I’m looking forward to getting him back in the offseason. I think he’s one of those players that make a huge jump.
With that being said, Jones will receive more playing time in 2014 now that he's fully recovered. According to sportingcharts.com, he only played in 256 defensive snaps out of the Packers 1,049—less than 25 percent of the time Green Bay's defense was on the field. Reiterating McCarthy's quote from above, Jones will see his playing time increase substantially. To seize this increased opportunity, Jones has been strenuously training this offseason. By taking on workouts like MMA training, he is looking to increase his power on the field. ESPN's Rob Demovsky quotes Jones' statement at the 2014 Green Bay Packers' OTAs:
I came into the NFL trying to finesse offensive linemen, and that's not going to work. After last year, I had a chance to reevaluate my game. I noticed that I could have come with a lot more power because I'm a strong guy, and I was telling Mike that's one thing I need to keep doing is use my power more.
Datone Jones' propelled success will give the Green Bay Packers' defense a lot to be excited about. ESPN statistics show the Packers finishing 25th in the NFL for opponent rushing yards per game. The progression of Jones is badly needed to stitch this gaping hole in the defense.
Just having Jones on the field will help. Emerging as the best defensive lineman for the Packers, he will require a double team more often than not. Other playmakers such as Clay Matthews, Mike Daniels and Julius Peppers will be freed up to pursue the ball carrier. This fact alone could make Datone Jones the key for success in the trenches of Green Bay.
A healthy Datone Jones will lead to increased playing time. And more opportunities will allow him to flash his power, disrupting offenses. These chain of events will make Jones the most improved player for the Green Bay Packers. As long he avoids throwing punches at opponents, Datone Jones should become the best defensive lineman for the Packers.
How Packers Can Get the Most out of Julius Peppers in New Position

The Green Bay Packers gave Julius Peppers $30 million over three years this past March to provide defensive coordinator Dom Capers with a versatile chess piece in the Packers defensive front seven.
Now, it's on Capers and the Packers defensive staff to put their biggest free-agent investment since Charles Woodson in the best position to produce.
Peppers is an unusual big-money free agent. For one, he's 34 years old and entering the twilight of his career. But maybe more importantly, Peppers is changing positions and defensive schemes for the first time.
A traditional 4-3 defensive end for both the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears, Peppers will now play a hybrid position for Capers and the Packers.
Head coach Mike McCarthy has described Peppers' role as "multiple" in Green Bay's 3-4 defense.
"'Elephant' is a term used for a multiple-position player along the defensive front," McCarthy said back in late March, via Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "Julius will be part of that group."
The Packers have a plan in place for best utilizing Peppers and his unique skill set and situation. Below, we run down the most important aspects of Green Bay's blueprint for maximizing the return on their free-agent acquisition.
Keep Offenses Guessing
The Packers want to play Peppers in a variety of roles, which should benefit both parties in a pair of ways. For starters, a little re-imagination in his role could revitalize a motor that ran hot and cold last season. And second, variation will keep offenses from knowing where he'll be on any given snap.
Last season, Peppers played right defensive end almost exclusively. Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), 401 of his 442 pass-rushing snaps came from right end in 2013. Five years ago, Peppers could play one primary position and still dominate the game like many of the NFL's best pass-rushers do. Now, he could use a little unpredictability about where he'll be.
The Packers have many options.
Peppers should be primarily an outside linebacker in the 3-4, which will mean standing up and rushing off the edge or dropping into coverage. But he can also play at defensive end in Green Bay's base defense, and also as an interior rusher when the Packers go to base defense.
Playing nickel and dime packages is something Capers and the Packers do as much as any defense in football. In those sets, Peppers can rush from just about anywhere in the front seven.
One of McCarthy's priorities this offseason was becoming more multiple on defense, while also cutting down on the volume inside those various schemes. Peppers helps do both.
"Defensively, we want to do more things with different personnel groups," McCarthy said. "We want to be more personnel groups, less volume schematically."
Among the many personnel groupings could be the return of the "Psycho" package, which Capers brought to Green Bay in 2009. In the "Psycho" look, the Packers employ a single down lineman, five pass-rushing linebackers and five defensive backs. It was once used to great effect in Green Bay, but the defense has simply lacked the personnel to bring it back in recent seasons.

Peppers may help change that.
Imagine a "Psycho" set in 2014 that includes Mike Daniels (6.5 sacks last season) or Datone Jones as the down lineman and Peppers, Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, A.J. Hawk and Mike Neal, Brad Jones or Carl Bradford as the linebackers. The Packers could cause confusion in the pre-snap process and overload gaps with stunts and delayed blitzes from the unique combination of pass-rushers.
But even in more traditional packages, Capers can mix and match by placing Peppers and Matthews on the same side of the defensive formation (either as standup rushers or with Peppers along the line), or by sliding Peppers inside to combine with Daniels or Jones on the interior. Either scenario would stress an offensive line with two very good pass-rushers in the same general area.
Combining Peppers with another havoc-causer should lessen the amount of attention he receives.
Without any semblance of help last season, Peppers became the focal point for offenses against the Chicago defense. That can't happen in Green Bay. Getting him in favorable situations is a must.
Peppers can still win one-on-ones. This sack against the Minnesota Vikings last season is especially relevant:

The Bears lined Peppers inside, with Shea McClellin (think Matthews) on his outside shoulder. The Vikings give Peppers a one-on-one with the guard, while Chicago's other interior rusher (think Daniels) is double-teamed. Peppers overpowers his matchup and sacks the quarterback with relative ease.
The Packers can scheme in similar scenarios. Role versatility and personnel groupings may just be the deception Peppers needs to jump-start his pass-rushing production at age 34.
Protect Against the Run
Make no mistake about it, the Packers brought Peppers to Green Bay to rush the quarterback. But pass-rushing is only one part of the defensive equation, and the Packers will need to be smart about how Peppers is used against the run.
A year ago, Peppers was up and down in run defense for a unit that was carved up week in and week out. He wasn't the main part of Chicago's problem, but he wasn't any part of the answer, either.
PFF Grade vs. Run | 4-3 DE Rank | |
---|---|---|
2010 | +16.0 | 2nd |
2011 | +3.0 | 27th |
2012 | +0.2 | 40th |
2013 | -2.7 | 44th |
It will be interesting to see how Peppers is asked to attack the run. As an outside linebacker, he'll need to anchor at times on the edge—regardless of if he's playing on the right or left side. It's simply something every 3-4 outside linebacker needs to do, and no one can be sure of Peppers' effectiveness in a new role.
But the Packers will also want Peppers on the back side of most plays, if possible. Maybe his greatest strength against the run is moving vertically down the line and pursuing plays off the back side. His athleticism and length allows him to close down space and eliminate cutback lanes.
It's certainly possible the Packers take Peppers off the field on some run downs. Perry, when healthy, has been an effective anchor on the strong side opposite Matthews. He's younger and more stout at the point.
Peppers' biggest contribution to the Packers defense will be in attacking the quarterback. Unless a move to outside linebacker revitalizes his production against the run, Green Bay will need to protect Peppers some on run downs.
Keep His Legs Fresh
Given his contract, Peppers isn't going to be a part-time player for the Packers in 2014. Green Bay paid him to be on the field. But an important aspect of getting the most out of Peppers next season will be monitoring his snaps.
He hasn't missed a game since 2007, which is a testament to his incredible reliability. However, with those games every Sunday have come snaps, and the mileage has started to add up.
Total Snaps | 4-3 DE Rank | PFF Grade | |
---|---|---|---|
2010 | 944 | 4th | +33.9 |
2011 | 918 | 10th | +21.7 |
2012 | 797 | 23rd | +9.9 |
2013 | 865 | 13th | -4.3 |
Totals | 3,649 | 5th | +61.2 |
Since 2010, Peppers has played 3,649 snaps, or roughly 912 per season. Only 12 4-3 defensive ends played more snaps than him last season, and of the 12 that did, only Jared Allen and Justin Tuck were over the age of 30. Overall, he played on almost 85 percent of Chicago's defensive snaps.
Peppers is now 34, and despite his rare athleticism, the decline is coming. As the saying goes, Father Time remains undefeated. One way to delay the inevitable regression is reducing the wear and tear that goes along with playing a high percentage of snaps.
If the Packers are eyeing a deep run into January next season, they'll need Peppers at his best late in the year. That may mean sacrificing snaps along the way. It would be difficult to envision Peppers playing over 900 snaps and still having enough in the tank come the postseason. Capers and McCarthy will have to balance out the percentages to ensure Peppers is fresh when he's really needed.

In the 34-year-old Peppers, the Packers have a unique and valuable asset on the roster. Getting the most out of their asset will require creativity and a commitment to the plan currently being constructed. Success in maximizing Peppers' production could finally bring the Packers defense back to title form.
Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report.
Julius Peppers vs. Jared Allen: Who Is in Better Position for Super Bowl Run?

The NFC North redistributed some of its most accomplished veterans on the defensive side of the ball with DE Julius Peppers leaving Chicago to sign with its division foes, the Green Bay Packers, as DE Jared Allen went shopping for his fair market value, which he apparently found hopping from Minnesota to Chicago.
But which of these two dynamic playmakers has the better chance to cap off an incredible career with a Super Bowl victory?
At 34 (Peppers) and 32 (Allen), these likely Hall of Famers are clearly on the back nine of their careers with only a few critical holes left to play. Though a deluge of individual accolades have blanketed their trophy cases over the years, one special piece of hardware has continued to elude the top shelf.
Neither Peppers nor Allen has ever won a Super Bowl despite combining for over 20 years of NFL experience between them. Allen got close one year during the Brett Favre days in Minnesota, making it all the way to the NFC Championship Game where the Vikings lost to the Saints.
Peppers was lucky enough to play in a Super Bowl in only his second NFL season—which was his first and only appearance in the big game. His team went on to lose that game to Tom Brady and the Patriots.
Jared Allen was drafted in the fourth round a decade ago, during which time he managed to rack up 128.5 sacks, placing him second behind John Abraham among active players in that category. He is a four-time first-team All-Pro and despite his age should provide immediate veteran leadership and production for the Bears in 2014.
Over the last three years in Minnesota, Allen accumulated 45.5 sacks, including 22 in 2011.
His task, however daunting, will be to the fill the shoes left by the Julius Peppers, who was released in early March to free up cap space. This trade-off not only freed up much-needed cap space for the Bears, but it also might end up being an upgrade to the position.
Peppers is a dual-sport athlete who played basketball and football while at North Carolina. His rare size (6'7", 287 lbs) and athleticism made him one of the most coveted defensive prospects over the last 20 years. In 12 years as a pro, he managed 119 sacks and was a three-time first-team All-Pro. He also finished eight of his 12 seasons with double-digit sacks.
According to Packers head coach Mike McCarthy via Vic Ketchman of Packers.com, Peppers will be playing the role of the Elephant defender, which is typically a position found in defenses that are a hybrid between the 3-4 and the 4-3 front. McCarthy was quoted as saying, "He’ll be a multiple-position player."

Over the last two years with the Bears this aging star tallied 19 sacks, which is 4.5 less than Allen had over the same period of time. Clearly Julius Peppers is beyond his prime. However, a late career resurgence wouldn’t be too far off from what happened with Charles Woodson. Woodson was also perceived to be a lost cause and not worth the investment at the time he was brought on by the Packers after the Raiders felt his best years were behind him.
Woodson would go on to win Defensive Player of the Year and a Super Bowl with the Packers.
Sometimes, like in the case of Woodson, or Shaun Phillips from last year, an aging veteran is able to dig deep in order to impress his new teammates and show that he’s not just a shell of his former self. This proverbial chip of the shoulder is powerful motivation and can awaken that long-lost competitive drive long since replaced with complacency.
Phillips’ 10 sacks for the Broncos last year at the age of 32 was a prime example of this. Especially considering he only had double-digit sacks two times in his career.
Both Allen and Peppers could use all the motivation they can muster if either of them hopes to make it to the Super Bowl before hanging up the cleats.
This offseason Allen admitted to the possibility of retirement if the financial side of the game was not worth it. This begs the question—how much of his decision to keep playing and sign with the Bears was financial, and how much was about the prize at the end?
The Bears are certainly a team on the rise under new head coach Marc Trestman—the man who was able to turn Josh McCown into a potential star in less than one year. But with a depleted and aging secondary, questions at linebacker and Jay Cutler at quarterback, can the Bears even be considered real contenders for the division, let alone the championship this year?
After all, let’s not forget the Lions are no pushovers either.
The Bears certainly have the size and big-play ability at receiver with Brandon Marshall and the emergence of Alshon Jeffery, but Cutler has yet to prove he’s reliable in big games with a lot on the line.
However, Chicago did allow DT Henry Melton to seek employment elsewhere, but at least it brought in Lamarr Houston from Oakland to help offset the loss.
Third-year defensive end Shea McClellin seems to be headed for a role as a reserve and to contribute exclusively on passing downs while Houston takes over against the run. McClellin is a talented player who I believe is playing out of position in Chicago. He would be much more productive if given the chance to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.
But are these enough pieces to get the Bears over the hump and into the playoffs out of the North?
Many believe the Packers are the team to beat in their division, and I tend to agree with that assessment. Aaron Rodgers is itching to get back into a Super Bowl so he can reassert his dominance as the undisputed king of the quarterbacks.
With key contributors returning from injury, such as CB Casey Hayward, Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, as well as the addition of Peppers, the Packers defense should be a much-improved unit, loaded with a nice mix of youth and veterans.
One weakness they absolutely must address in order to compete against the big targets of the North is the safety position. At this point it seems like this hole will most likely be filled via the draft.
On offense the Packers had to say goodbye to solid contributors like James Jones and in all likelihood Jermichael Finley as well. Both of those players, though talented, are replaceable with the infusion of the right rookies to add to the mix.
Plus, with the emergence of star running back Eddie Lacy and a healthy Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb on the outside, this could be one of the more explosive and well-balanced attacks in the NFL.
One of the most overachieving units in football last year was the Packers offensive line. This group was young, injured and was comprised of all mid- to late-round draft picks. In fact, of the top six contributors to the offensive line, not a single member was drafted in the first three rounds.
All in all, the Packers look to be one of the more promising teams in the NFL heading into the 2014 season. Peppers could be that extra dash of spice the Packers need to go deep into the postseason and possibly snag their second Super Bowl in four years.
Ryan Riddle is a former NFL player and writes for Bleacher Report
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5 Big-Money NFL Free-Agent Moves That Won't Pan Out

NFL free agency is often alluring to fans and front offices because of the quick-fix possibilities. Unlike the draft, where even exhaustive scouting does not necessarily produce results, the ability to sign a known commodity theoretically involves less projection and risk.
Of course, that is not always how free agency plays out, and the high financial investment entails an entirely separate risk of its own. Adding star free agents is not necessarily a bad thing—in a vacuum, true big-money busts like Nnamdi Asomugha and Albert Haynesworth are fairly rare, and these players generally make their new teams better in a vacuum.
But roster construction does not occur in a vacuum, and the abundance of resources devoted to a single player means that a team could be disadvantaged in other areas. Now that the big waves of free agency have largely settled, we can pinpoint a few deals that could leave teams regretful in the future.
When dissecting some of the more questionable decisions, it appears there are two distinct divisions for characterizing these deals.
Bad Values
Julius Peppers (GB): 3 years, $26 million

Let's play a quick blind resume game:
Player | Pass-Rush Snaps | Sacks | Hits | Hurries |
---|---|---|---|---|
A | 442 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
B | 649 | 13 | 18 | 34 |
C | 442 | 11 | 4 | 32 |
All three players represent 4-3 veteran pass-rushers signed this offseason. Player A is Julius Peppers, B is Jared Allen and C is Shaun Phillips. Despite clearly superior production from the latter two, the annual average of Peppers' contract is on pace with that of Allen's, and far superior to Phillips' meager deal.
Much has been made of Peppers' potential fit in Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme. Peppers seems likely to play an "elephant" role that would allow him to pin his ears back and rush the passer on nearly every down, essentially acting as a fourth edge-rushing defensive lineman. While there are different gap and containment responsibilities between systems, his basic function remains the same.
However, there is a legitimate question whether or not Peppers is still capable of providing Green Bay with a reliable secondary pass-rushing option behind Clay Matthews. As Ben Stockwell of Pro Football Focus illustrates, Peppers' diminishing physical tools have cost him invaluable versatility in his pass-rushing arsenal:
The threat to the outside is what edge rushers need and what the vast majority use to set up the rest of their pass rushing repertoire. No matter the defensive end it will be extremely rare that you are just going to bull rush an NFL caliber tackle back or beat them inside if they are not concerned about you beating them to the outside. There needs to be some threat that keeps them off balance to open up the shorter routes to the quarterback. This is probably the biggest potential impediment to Peppers being a threat on the edge for the Packers in 2014 and the biggest clue to how Dom Capers may choose to deploy him.
The problem with Peppers being less effective on the edge is that he has been increasingly confined to that area. Stockwell also noted how Peppers' usage has become less versatile, as he played 85.4 percent of his snaps off the right edge, the zenith of a steady three-year rise.

Perhaps you can teach an old dog new tricks, but at 34, Peppers is no longer the physical freak he was in his Carolina heyday. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com noted that the deal could essentially be a one-year, $8.5 million pact, as the Packers could save $7 million on their cap by cutting Peppers after 2014.
However, it's important to realize that shedding Peppers after just a year would leave $5 million in dead money on Green Bay's cap. That's not an insignificant amount, especially with important starters like Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Tramon Williams due to hit free agency after next season.
With diminishing ability and at least some questions about scheme fit, Peppers simply does not provide good value over some of the other veteran pass-rushers from this free-agency period.
Branden Albert (MIA): 5 years, $47 million

Speaking of poor value relative to his peers, let's try another blind resume comparison:
Player | Pass-Blocking Grade | Run-Blocking Grade |
---|---|---|
A | +14.7 | -2.3 |
B | +15.6 | +1.5 |
C | +17.8 | +3.1 |
A is Branden Albert's 2013 season, B is Eugene Monroe's 2013 season and C is Jared Veldheer's 2012 season (Veldheer missed most of 2013 with a torn triceps injury). Monroe and Veldheer both received nice paydays, but the total value of Albert's deal dwarfs either of the other two premier left tackles from this year's free-agent market.
Albert's staggering $26 million in guaranteed money is second-highest for any tackle in the game, and while he is certainly a capable starter, Miami paid him to be far more than just that. Albert has not been a net-positive in the running game since 2011, and even then he was an unspectacular plus-2.6.
It's a bit puzzling why Albert is below average in the run-blocking department, as he possesses tremendous athleticism for a man of his size, often running downfield to help with second-level blocks:

However, Albert is among the most penalized tackles as well. Only eight tackles had more than his nine penalties last year. He can occasionally have trouble with quick edge-rushers on outside zone plays, as he did here when he was called for holding:

In fairness, perhaps no team had a more pressing need than the Dolphins did with their offensive line. Miami absolutely needed to lock up one of the premium left tackles, and along with guard Shelley Smith, Albert should help anchor an improved Dolphins line.
But the deal carries massive cap hits after 2014—at least $10.2 million every year going forward—and Miami cannot get out of the deal without significant dead money until 2017. Even with a relatively modest $8.5 million signing bonus, the massive base salaries almost ensures that the Dolphins will have to convert some of that into signing bonus money to save short-term cap space, making the initial figure a moot point.
Again, Albert is a solid tackle who represents a massive upgrade over the flotsam the Dolphins started last season. But the deal seems likely to cause headaches within a couple years, the consequence of playing a middle-class player a top-tier salary.
Everson Griffen (MIN): 5 years, $42.5 million

Not all bad-value signings need to involve players switching teams. Unless Griffen hits his ceiling, this deal is going to end up as an overpay.
In the Peppers section above, we've already shown the market value for this year's best edge-rushers. While Griffen is making similar money to Allen and Peppers, his track record is nowhere near the same level. In four seasons, Griffen has 17.5 sacks, including a decline to 5.5 last year after notching 8.0 in 2012.
Moreover, it's not as if the underlying stats suggest an imminent breakout. Griffen compiled 52 total pressures in 635 pass-rushing snaps last season, a mark that placed him in the middle of the pack among 4-3 defensive ends. Even with gaudier sack numbers in 2012, his 43 pressures in 613 pass-rushing snaps that year was a slightly worse rate.
That's not poor production, but it does not portend someone who deserves more guaranteed money than Cameron Wake or Michael Bennett. Additionally, Mike Zimmer's system emphasizes run containment as much as pure upfield edge-rushing, meaning that Griffen is unlikely to see a spike in sack numbers as a result of the Vikings' coaching change.
This is not to suggest Griffen is a bad player. At 26 years old, he could conceivably play out this entire contract and not leave heaps of dead money on Minnesota's cap. The cap hits are also fairly manageable and consistent going forward, so as the NFL's overall cap rises, Griffen's contract should be fairly tenable.
Still, it is hard to imagine this deal ever being a bargain for the Vikings, and Griffen will need to improve significantly just to make this market value (at least by 2014 standards). Ultimately, with Allen out the door, this looks like a case of Minnesota overpaying to retain some continuity along the defensive line.
Bad Fits
Chris Williams (BUF): 4 years, $13.4 million

Apologies if the blind resumes are getting old, but allow one more comparison:
Player | Pass-Blocking Grade | Run-Blocking Grade |
---|---|---|
A | -15.4 | -5.7 |
B | -12.7 | -9.5 |
C | -13.1 | -3.1 |
Pretty similar across the board, right? All of them reflect 2013 seasons from guards—A is Chris Williams, B is Mike McGlynn and C is Oniel Cousins. However, while Williams received the aforementioned contract from Buffalo, Cousins signed a one-year deal for $795,000, while McGlynn appears to have signed a similarly small one-year deal.
Indeed, the former 14th overall pick was a washout as a tackle in Chicago, and did not fare much better at left guard in 2013. Williams' minus-21.8 overall grade was eighth-worst in the league among guards last year. He conceded 41 pressures over 503 pass-blocking snaps, a mark that tied for the fourth-worst pass-blocking efficiency rating among guards.
Quite simply, despite his starter salary, Williams has proved over his six-year career that he is little more than a fringe roster player. SI.com's Doug Farrar notes that turning Williams into a reliable starter would entail a total reversal of his career track to date:
Williams has never lived up to his athletic potential, though that’s partially due to the sub-par coaching he received in Chicago. He gets pushed around too easily at any line position, and he’s not consistent when asked to stop pass-rushers at the point of attack. The Rams line was a mixed bag last season, and Williams was at least a bastion of consistency, but not much more. If the Bills are serious about competing in the AFC East sooner than later, they’ll need to develop Williams in ways other coaches have not been able to.
Farrar gave the signing a "D" grade, and he is not alone in his assessment. Pro Football Focus' deal grader has ranked Williams' signing the worst of the free-agency period thus far, and characterized Williams as a "prototypical draft bust."
The Bills certainly needed an upgrade at left guard, as the putrid tandem of Doug Legursky and Colin Brown combined for a staggering minus-42.6 overall grade last season. But Williams is unlikely to provide a meaningfully significant upgrade from that low standard, meaning that second-year quarterback EJ Manuel will continue to run for his life in 2014.
Mike Mitchell (PIT): 5 years, $25 million

In a vacuum, Mitchell is a decent safety receiving a somewhat reasonable contract. After four humdrum seasons in Oakland, Mitchell's plus-0.5 overall grade ranked 35th among safeties. He provided versatility, playing as both a deep centerfield free safety and in-the-box strong safety for a Carolina team that needed his contributions following a season-ending injury to Charles Godfrey.
However, Mitchell's strength lies near the line of scrimmage, as he is better as a downhill attacking safety rather than a read-and-react safety valve in the deep half. As Grantland's Bill Barnwell indicates, that overlaps with what the Steelers already have in Troy Polamalu:
Mitchell’s strength is using his speed to attack the line of scrimmage and fill against the run. His fellow starting safety in Pittsburgh is Troy Polamalu, a rover who has lost several steps in coverage and whose best remaining strength is … using his instincts to attack the line of scrimmage and fill against the run. I’d wonder if Mitchell was a replacement for Polamalu, but the cap-strapped Steelers just gave their long-serving safety a two-year contract extension.
There are certainly holes in Mitchell's game. With a whopping 17 missed tackles, Mitchell was the least efficient tackler among all safeties last season. Frequent curious angles make Mitchell a shaky proposition in the open field (on this play he was the second missed tackle):

Moreover, with undrafted rookie Robert Lester as the other starting safety for the majority of the season, Carolina often played vanilla zone coverages to simplify the burden for their young secondary. That's not to suggest Mitchell could not handle more coverage responsibilities, but he's yet to consistently exhibit the combination of quick diagnostic instincts and ranginess demanded from today's free safeties.
The signing is especially frustrating when considering Pittsburgh's need for a coverage complement to Polamalu. Fourth-rounder Shamarko Thomas was a bit player in his rookie season, and he and Mitchell will likely split snaps to replace Ryan Clark at free safety.
The cap-strapped Steelers can ill-afford to miss on a rare free-agent splurge. Mitchell's contract is not crippling, but for a team that has hemorrhaged starters in recent years due to salary-cap troubles, Pittsburgh has less room for error than most other teams.
*Stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required), salary data via Spotrac.com.
A Scout's Take on Julius Peppers Signing with the Packers

I had another opportunity on Friday to talk with scout Chris Landry. One of the things I asked Chris about was the signing last weekend of defensive end Julius Peppers by the Green Bay Packers.
Landry did not pull any punches regarding his evaluation of Peppers and how he will do with the Packers.
I hope he does well for Green Bay's sake. I don't know if he has much left. You wonder if you can get another good year out of him. Maybe he's motivated now. He's got a little bit of money guaranteed. He's certainly a declining player. And the issue is whether he has another year left that can help them (the Packers) out. Looking at him on tape, I was kind of on the side of that he's probably done. But one more (good) year is very possible.
I was a bit surprised with Landry's take about Peppers, but Chris is certainly one of the best evaluators of talent in both college football and the NFL.
ESPN reported that Peppers signed a three-year deal totaling $30 million maximum, $7.5 million of which is guaranteed. The salary in the first year is $8.5 million.
Rob Demovsky of ESPN also wrote that the cap hit for the Packers in the first year of the deal with Peppers is only $3.5 million.
On the first day of free agency on March 11, I speculated that Peppers might be a good fit for the Packers.
One reason is that Mike Trgovac is the defensive line coach of the Packers. Trgovac was also the defensive line coach for Peppers in his rookie year in Carolina in 2002 and then was the defensive coordinator for the Panthers and Peppers from 2003-2008.
Another reason is that Peppers is very familiar with the Packers, having played them nine times in four seasons when he was a member of the Chicago Bears. The Bears were 2-7 in those nine games versus the Packers, with one of those losses being in the 2010 NFC Championship Game.
In the four seasons Peppers has been a Bear, the Packers have won a Super Bowl and also won three NFC North titles.
Peppers has never been able to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy, although he did play in Super Bowl XXXVIII, when the Panthers lost to the Patriots.
While I agree with Landry's opinion about Peppers having declining skills, I didn't see as much of a drop-off as Chris did.
In 2013, Peppers had 46 tackles, 7.5 sacks, one interception (against the Packers), two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery (for a touchdown).
To me, those stats aren't too bad. In fact, they were much better than any player on the defensive line of the Packers in 2013.
It's true that the production Peppers had last season doesn't measure up with his overall career numbers. But you know what? It's pretty close.
In his 12-year career, Peppers has had 563 tackles, 119 sacks, nine interceptions (two for touchdowns), 40 forced fumbles and 14 fumble recoveries (two for touchdowns).
That all averages out to 47 tackles, 10 sacks, three forced fumbles and one fumble recovery per season for Peppers, which almost mirrors his 2013 numbers, although the sacks are down a bit.

The sack opportunities for Peppers in Green Bay should be plentiful in 2014, as opponents will also have to be concerned about the pass rush coming from the likes of Clay Matthews, Mike Neal, Datone Jones, Nick Perry and Mike Daniels.
Bottom line, I believe the signing of Peppers was a good one for the Packers. The team only has to absorb a $3.5 million cap hit in 2014 by bringing aboard Peppers.
The Packers are gambling that Peppers has at least one good year left in him this upcoming season. Based on his statistical production last season, I believe that their calculations will prove to be correct.
As Landry said, "One more (good) year is very possible."
Setting Realistic Expectations for Each Green Bay Packers Free Agent Signing

Despite reports that their ample cap room would lead to the Green Bay Packers signing an uncharacteristically-high number of free agents, Packer general manager Ted Thompson made it a priority to re-sign some of the Packers' own free agents, including Sam Shields, Andrew Quarless, Mike Neal, B.J. Raji and James Starks.
But when Thompson did venture into the outside free-agent market this offseason, he went big, and he stayed local. The Packers signed defensive end Julius Peppers and defensive tackle Letroy Guion from the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, respectively.
What role will these two new defensive linemen play in Green Bay's system, and should fans lower their expectations for Peppers, or raise them for Guion? Let's take a look at how the Packers might use their two new additions.
It's not likely that Guion is used in anything more than a reserve role, as the Packers will have Datone Jones, Mike Daniels, Jerel Worthy and Josh Boyd returning—and could still re-sign Johnny Jolly, who has healed from his neck surgery on Jan. 10.
Guion's deal is only for one year and could be worth up to $1 million, per ESPN's Rob Demovsky. Raji also agreed to a one-year deal with the Packers worth $4 million, and it's a motivational deal in more ways than one; he'll be moved back to the starting nose tackle spot.
Thus, Guion could play a reserve role at nose behind Raji, or he could be a rotational player on the line. But as the Packers look to continue developing their homegrown talent on the defensive front, don't expect to see Guion get too much playing time in the base defense.

Guion was credited with 21 tackles, one sack, one forced fumble and one pass defensed with the Vikings in 2013. It's not likely he exceeds any of those stats in 2014, unless injuries elsewhere on the line increase his snaps.
It's the opposite for Peppers; it seems like the opportunities he provides Green Bay in mixing up their pass rush are endless.
Peppers had 45 tackles, seven sacks, two forced fumbles, an interception and three passes defensed in 2013 as a defensive end in the Bears' 4-3 scheme. However, he's always preferred playing in a 3-4 scheme, per Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Peppers' seven sacks last season were the fewest in his four seasons with the Bears, and he's entering his 13th season in the NFL. It's not reasonable to expect him, as the Packers transition to a 3-4 scheme, to lead the team in sacks, but he'll certainly help increase Green Bay's opportunities to get after the quarterback.
The Packers will have plenty of ways to use him, and they won't necessarily have to put him at outside linebacker to allow him to notch seven sacks again in 2014.
Peppers can play the end position in base, but Green Bay can also line him up at tackle in certain pass-rushing sub-packages.
It's enticing to think about Peppers beefing up the outside opposite Clay Matthews, but it may be even more effective to line him up on the same side as Matthews, as Cullen Jenkins did in the past. It's not possible to double-team both Matthews and Peppers on the same side.

Neither Mike McCarthy nor Peppers himself have revealed how the veteran might be used, but Peppers did say that the plan for him "was going to be something different" from what he had been doing in Chicago, per Silverstein.
It's reasonable to speculate that he will be placed on the outside, but the truth is Peppers gives the Green Bay defense a versatility it had lacked in recent seasons, even if the role he'll play may be difficult to pin down.
For instance, McCarthy has said this offseason that he'd like to utilize more of an elephant 7-technique, a position in which a defensive tackle lines up on the inside shoulder of a tight end. Nick Perry has been mentioned as a possible candidate for that position, but the 6'7" Peppers could excel there, as well.
Fans often criticize Thompson for taking 4-3 defensive ends, either from college or acquired veterans, and trying to fit them into a 3-4 scheme.
However, with players like Peppers, Perry and Mike Neal who can be asked to do things that either a defensive end or an outside linebacker would traditionally do, the Packers will have multiple rush packages available to them in 2014—and opponents will have a hard time preparing for them.
What Julius Peppers Signing Means for Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers will no longer have to live in fear of defensive end Julius Peppers on game days for the 2014 season. That's because Peppers is the newest member of the Packers.
Green Bay and Peppers agreed to a three-year deal, according to Josina Anderson of ESPN:
This was the first big free-agent signing for the Packers this offseason, and it's one of the more surprising signings that we've seen in free agency.
For starters, the Packers did a great job of signing Peppers to an incentive-heavy contract. The maximum amount of money Peppers could make over the three years is $30 million. However, he's only guaranteed $7.5 million, according to Anderson:
Considering Peppers was going to account for nearly $18 million with the Chicago Bears in the upcoming season, according to Spotrac.com, the fact that he'll only count $8.5 million against the Packers cap is a great move by Green Bay.
The potential benefits of Peppers in Green Bay go much deeper than simply the salary cap though. Peppers will instantly add a pass-rushing presence that the Packers lacked severely last year. As you can see in the chart below, Peppers would have had the second-most sacks for Green Bay had he played with them last year:
Name | Position | Total Sacks |
Clay Matthews | OLB | 7.5 |
Julius Peppers | DE | 7.0 |
Mike Daniels | DE | 6.5 |
Mike Neal | OLB | 5.0 |
Nick Perry | OLB | 4.0 |
Datone Jones | DE | 3.5 |
In fact, recently re-signed outside linebacker Mike Neal simply couldn't hide his excitement about what the Packers defense could be capable of in the upcoming season:
Adding Peppers to a group that already includes Neal, outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry and defensive ends Mike Daniels and Datone Jones should scare the rest of the NFL. This is a defensive front that is going to be able to put pressure on the quarterback on a consistent basis.
The only real question surrounding Peppers is how he'll exactly fit in the 3-4 defense that the Packers currently run. While Peppers has never played in a 3-4 defense, his desire to play in one was one of the reasons he wanted to leave the Carolina Panthers, according to Darin Gantt of ProFootballTalk.com.
One very interesting scenario would be if the Packers lined Peppers up at outside linebacker opposite Matthews on obvious passing plays. The combination of Peppers and Matthews could be one of the most-feared pass-rushing duos in the league.
Of course, it could be a difficult position switch for Peppers now that he's 34 years old, but it's not unheard of for players to excel in new positions at an older age. Just look at Robert Mathis of the Indianapolis Colts and his 19.5 sacks as an outside linebacker last year at the age of 33.
While there is still plenty to figure out concerning just how the Packers will use a talent like Peppers, it's hard to not be excited about this signing by general manager Ted Thompson. After staying so quiet through the first few days of free agency, the Packers made themselves big winners by bringing in a player like Peppers.