Red Bull Racing

Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat will once again battle for supremacy within Red Bull when the 2016 Formula One season kicks off in March—and both will be hoping for a better year than the one just gone.

While the Mercedes engine remained the class of the field and Ferrari made huge strides with their own power unit, Renault continued to struggle. The result was another difficult season for Red Bull.

Despite having one of the best chassis—as proved in the wet at the United States Grand Prix—Ricciardo and Kvyat managed just three podium finishes between them. Red Bull, overtaken by both Ferrari and Williams, fell from second in the 2014 constructors' championship to fourth in 2015.

But there were a few rays of sunshine poking through the gathering clouds over Milton Keynes. Ricciardo remained on top of his game and came close to winning two races, while Kvyat performed admirably in only his second season of F1 racing.

Red Bull will continue with Renault engines in 2016, so a title challenge is highly unlikely. The two drivers will therefore have more time to think about the most important battle for any racing driver—the fight against his team-mate.

Ricciardo established himself as one of the sport's top drivers following his comprehensive defeat of Sebastian Vettel in 2014.

The Australian was always in place to pick up the pieces whenever Mercedes dropped the ball, and victories at the Canadian, Hungarian and Belgian grands prix were his rewards.

Though an impressive all-rounder, it was his overtaking ability that really caught the eye and marked him out as something very special. His move on Vettel at the Italian Grand Prix was just one of the many stunning and often key moves Ricciardo pulled off throughout the year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9zC-95bzv8

Kvyat arrived to partner Ricciardo at least one year earlier than Red Bull might have hoped. Vettel's decision to jump ship to Ferrari left the Austrian team with a seat to fill, and the young Russian was deemed the strongest prospect in the team's "reserves."

The statistics disagreed with this assessment; across 19 races in 2014, Kvyat was outscored 22 points to eight by Toro Rosso team-mate Jean-Eric Vergne.

However, the points gap was in no way representative of a much tighter on-track battle, and Vergne had the benefit of two extra seasons of F1 experience.

Furthermore, Kvyat had proved he had exceptional raw speed—the consistency that racks up points finishes often comes later for youngsters.

But there was one truth hidden in their points tallies—Vergne looked the more "finished" driver at the time. Kvyat was still very much a work in progress, chosen for the future; for him, 2015 would be as much about finishing his apprenticeship as it would be about establishing himself as a top talent.

It therefore went without saying that Ricciardo was the heavy favourite to emerge as the top Red Bull driver.

The start of the 2015 season went much as many fans would have expected, at least so far as the battle between the two Red Bulls was concerned. Ricciardo outqualified Kvyat four times in the opening five races, reaching Q3 on every occasion.

The Australian made the most of this good one-lap form to score points at every one of these races.

Kvyat didn't look entirely at home in the RB11, missing out on Q3 three times in this period, and his start to the year wasn't helped by a few reliability issues. He didn't even make it to the grid in Melbourne after his car broke down on the lap to the grid, and in China his engine failed well before half distance.

But it would still be fair to say he wasn't really getting the job done, and after Toro Rosso rookie Carlos Sainz Jr. overtook him to snatch ninth at the Spanish Grand Prix, Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko issued a very public wake-up call.

Marko told Kleine Zeitung (h/t Motorsport.com), "Our established guys need to look out. Paradoxically, the more inexperienced ones did the better job."

Kvyat's season finally got going at the sixth round, Monaco. Though Ricciardo outqualified him for the fifth time, the Russian got a better start and took fourth from his team-mate into the first corner.

The two Mercedes and Vettel's Ferrari were too quick, but Kvyat was more than comfortable as the best of the rest, and he finished fourth to pick up 12 points for what was, at the time, the best result of his F1 career.

Perhaps spurred on by this success, Kvyat outqualified Ricciardo at three of the next four races and outscored him in two of them. It was clear that the 21-year-old was finding his feet at the team and starting to push closer to his potential; Ricciardo, after dominating the early stages, had a real fight on his hands.

The Hungarian Grand Prix offered both Red Bulls a chance to score good points. The tight, slow Hungaroring circuit suited the RB11, and initially Ricciardo looked the most likely to secure a podium finish after Lewis Hamilton's errors and Kimi Raikkonen's retirement.

He was clearly quicker than Kvyat that weekend, and when a late safety car bunched up the field, there was even a chance he might grab the win.

However, an unfortunate series of events saw his hopes evaporate. Ricciardo's car sustained damage after he was hit by Hamilton while overtaking, but he was still able to catch the other Silver Arrow of Nico Rosberg.

Ricciardo sat behind for a number of laps before attempting a huge outbraking manoeuvre, but he ran wide. Rosberg drifted across to seize the racing line, and the two touched, destroying the Red Bull's front wing and puncturing the Mercedes' tyre.

Both were forced to pit, and though Ricciardo was still able to salvage a podium, it was Kvyat who came home in second to record his and the team's best result of the season.

After 10 races, the two Red Bull men were separated by just six points in the drivers' standings. Ricciardo led the way with 51, but Kvyat was close behind on 45. The qualifying battle stood at 6-4 in Ricciardo's favour, while in the seven races in which both had finished, Kvyat had been ahead four times.

But the statistics did not necessarily reflect accurately on what had happened on the track—Ricciardo had been more than six points better than Kvyat.

The second half of the season started in much the same fashion at the first, at least with regards to qualifying. Ricciardo started ahead four times in the five races from Belgium to Russia, but luck was rarely on his side.

He might have been on the podium at Spa had his car not broken down, a suspension failure robbed him of a likely fourth-place finish at Sochi and a first-lap collision with Felipe Massa ended his hopes of points in Suzuka.

But amid the misfortune came the Australian's best result of the year, second at the Singapore Grand Prix.

Ricciardo kept Vettel's victorious Ferrari within sight for the entire race and later told press, including ESPN's Nate Saunders, that he felt he might have been able to win had the safety cars not emerged when they did.

Kvyat was a lowly sixth at Marina Bay after some appalling misfortune with the safety cars. However, Lady Luck was more often than not on his side, and he benefited more than once from his team-mate's failures.

With four races to go, Kvyat had his nose ahead in the drivers' standings with 76 points to Ricciardo's 73.

Neither man enjoyed the United States Grand Prix, despite both challenging for the lead in the early stages; Kvyat crashed out on the damp track, and Ricciardo fell back to 10th after being hit by Nico Hulkenberg and Sainz Jr.

But Mexico was a happier hunting ground for the pair—and the scene of Kvyat's best drive of the season. With both Ferraris playing "hunt the barrier," the Russian looked set for an excellent podium, before a safety car gave Valtteri Bottas the opportunity to overtake.

The duo then traded "wins" in the final two races, Kvyat on top in Brazil and Ricciardo ahead at the season-closing Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. With each taking 19 points from the final four rounds, Kvyat retained his lead in the intra-team points battle.

For the second year in a row at Red Bull, the newcomer had beaten the old hand.

The final points table did not accurately reflect on reality. Kvyat was not the best or the quickest driver of the two over the course of the year—Ricciardo was.

The prevailing view among observers was that the Australian had very much held the upper hand—Autosport's Ben Anderson rated Ricciardo as the fourth-best driver of the year (and Kvyat the 14th-best), while F1 Fanatic's Keith Collantine placed Ricciardo in fifth and Kvyat in 10th.

But Kvyat had just 19 grand prix starts to his name prior to the season start, and he was thrust into a high-pressure role at one of the top teams, alongside one of the best drivers around, at least one year too early.

And at the end of the year, he was still just 21 years of age.

Taking these things into account, there is no denying that Kvyat did a fantastic job in 2015, and this was reflected in his placing of fifth in the Autosport team principals' top 10 rankings.

In an ideal world, Kvyat would enter 2016 with a bit of job security, looking to polish off the final rough edges and transform himself into a true top driver. But instead, he'll be hitting the track knowing that the only way he can guarantee himself a Red Bull seat in 2017 is if he can genuinely outperform Ricciardo.

The greatest threat to Kvyat's future with the team is Max Verstappen. If the Dutchman has another excellent season and continues to come across as a true once-in-a-generation talent, Red Bull will not hesitate to give one of their current drivers the boot to make space for him.

Sainz Jr. is also a threat—if he turns the tables on Verstappen and stands out as the team's top prospect, Red Bull will find space for him.

If the decision had to be made today, it would be an easy one for the team. Ricciardo has proved himself to be one of the top four or five drivers in F1 today; Kvyat has not. The Russian would be the man to make way.

So in 2016, Kvyat needs to do what Ricciardo did in his own third season—he has to establish himself as one of the true stars of tomorrow. To do this, he must prove to the Red Bull management that he is at the very least Ricciardo's equal.

That means not only beating him the points table, but also doing it on the track. Anything less, and—ridiculous as it sounds—he'll probably find himself looking for a new team as the season nears its end.

Kvyat is more than good enough to find one, but he'd probably prefer to stay where he is.

Ricciardo is not quite under the same sort of pressure as Kvyat, because his performances in 2014 and 2015 earned him a place close to the elite trio of Fernando Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel.

Speaking to this writer in October, Hamilton indicated he considered Ricciardo as the next in line behind his fellow multiple champions in the race to be the best, and there is no greater praise than that of your rivals.

But that was then, and it doesn't matter how good a driver is if someone else turns out to be even better. If Kvyat starts beating him regularly and Red Bull see the Russian as their future, Ricciardo will be the man under threat from the Toro Rosso stars.

If the axe falls, he'll have options with other teams—but will any of them be better than Red Bull?

The four-way battle between the Red Bull and Toro Rosso drivers probably won't produce any race-winners, but it'll still be one of the highlights of the year.

One of his staunchest allies may be helping to turn Red Bull Racing's fortunes around, but chief technical officer Adrian Newey isn't expecting any miracles ahead of the 2016 Formula One season.

Having tried and failed to secure an engine-supply deal with Mercedes, Ferrari and Honda in the closing months of last season—a pursuit of excellence that nearly resulted in the downfall of the Red Bull empire—the team will continue to run Renault power units this year.

Sure, they can give the engine a quirky name in an attempt to distance themselves from the French manufacturer, and, of course, engine expert Mario Illien, a colleague of Newey's from the Leyton House days, has been assisting the development of the powertrain, per GPUpdate.net.

But the simple fact remains that Red Bull's cars, despite the relentless, often distasteful bickering between the two parties since the V6 turbo regulations were implemented in 2014, will still be fitted with Renault engines.

As such, there appears to be a feeling of impending doom at Red Bull; that despite their best and bravest efforts to force change they remain braced for the same old disappointments—so much so that Newey already seems to regard the upcoming season as a write-off.

With Mercedes and Ferrari preparing to engage in direct combat for the world championship, Red Bull, Newey feels, will be Red Bull—operationally flawless with an impeccable chassis design—and Renault will be Renault—unreliable, stubborn, useless.

Not to mention the manufacturer will now be preoccupied with its own team, as Red Bull adviser Dr. Helmut Marko told Austrian publication Salzburg Nachrichten (h/t Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble) following Renault's takeover of Lotus.

Newey told Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble: 

I think it is going to be an extremely difficult season for us frankly.

If we start the engine with the same power as we have had throughout 2014 and 2015, which I think may well be the case, then we are going to be even further behind.

According to our own research we found some reasonable gains on the chassis side, but the works teams will of course all move forward. Mercedes and Ferrari will move forwards. ...

So, next year's going to be very difficult for us. It's really down to, I think, what happens next with the sport, for 2017 and beyond.

For all Newey's pessimism, however, there are signs that Renault might not be too bad an option in 2016 after all.

Cyril Abiteboul, Renault's managing director, recently told Motorsport.com's Adam Cooper the new engine will represent its "biggest step since the new regulations have been introduced," while Red Bull team manager Jonathan Wheatley told GPUpdate.net how the French company has made "very positive" gains.

"I think that's probably where we are at the moment," he added. "Is it going to be on the same level as the other [leading] power units in 2016? I think that's probably unlikely. But we only need to get close."

And that will be the key to Red Bull's season.

They may not be quite capable of challenging Mercedes and Ferrari on a regular basis in 2016, but if the marriage of inconvenience can place Red Bull somewhere within touching distance of the front-runners, the team remains dangerous enough to win races.

We saw it at various points in the second half of last year, when Daniel Ricciardo pestered Sebastian Vettel throughout the Singapore GP—he may have won were it not for a couple of ill-timed safety cars—before building a lead in the United States until safety cars and improving conditions dragged him back into obscurity.

Although Red Bull endured their first winless season in seven years in 2015, that they often manoeuvred themselves into such promising positions—even at venues generally unsuited to their car—provided much solace, especially given their rate of improvement with the chassis across the campaign.

Despite his unrivalled status as an aerodynamicist, Newey admitted at the midseason stage that, even with power parity, the RB11 wouldn't have been good enough to challenge Mercedes and Ferrari for the title, claiming Red Bull were "in the process" of moving in a "different direction," per F1i.com's Chris Medland.

As noted by Motorsport.com's Giorgio Piola, the team's philosophy of running the front of their car "as low as possible to the ground" was outdated in an era of short noses and titanium skid blocks, forcing them to follow the trend set by Mercedes.

Those improvements—which were noticeable at Silverstone and became obvious in Hungary, where the team claimed their only double-podium finish of 2015—unlocked the RB11's potential to the point where Red Bull had arguably reclaimed their position as the standard-setters in terms of car design come the end of the season.

Learning those lessons and implementing them so effectively was crucial ahead of 2016, when Newey—now enjoying semi-retirement, having been more visible than expected last year—will no longer have a significant influence on the design of Red Bull's car, as team principal Christian Horner told the official F1 website.

He has left his colleagues with a firm platform in a year of relatively stable regulations, but Red Bull's success, as ever, will depend on those at Viry-Chatillon.

Should Renault still be unable to deliver on its promises and fail to address the issues with its internal-combustion engine—which as technical expert Craig Scarborough told the Racer's Edge YouTube channel remains the biggest flaw of the power unit—Red Bull's predicament may yet get worse before it gets better.

Yet if it finally provides an engine worthy of the chassis it sits inside, Red Bull could displace Williams as F1's third-best team and potentially win a grand prix or two.

Is it go time yet? #F1 @DanielRicciardo pic.twitter.com/kCycwiryBj

— Oracle Red Bull Racing (@redbullracing) February 4, 2016

For a team that was celebrating its fourth consecutive world championship just two years ago, that still won't be good enough.

But at least, to use a popular motor-racing phrase, they can race from there.

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In his last few years at McLaren, Lewis Hamilton was clearly growing frustrated. After winning the Formula One drivers' championship in 2008—just his second year in the sport—his results from 2009 to 2012 were fifth, fourth, fifth and fourth, respectively.

Eventually, that frustration led to Hamilton signing with Mercedes for the 2013 season, jumping on board at just the right moment, as the Silver Arrows have dominated the last two years under the new hybrid V6 engine formula.

Now, thanks to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner's comments to F1 Racing (h/t ESPN F1), we know that perhaps Mercedes wasn't Hamilton's first choice.

Having witnessed Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel capture four straight titles, Hamilton was "desperate" to move to Red Bull, according to Horner. "In 2012, he wanted to come and drive for us, but there was no way we could accommodate him while Sebastian was with us. Then before he signed for Mercedes he was very keen to drive for Red Bull for 2013."

That got us thinking: What if Hamilton had signed with Red Bull for the 2013 season?

Well, let's find out.

The biggest change in our Hamilton-Red Bull alternate reality is that Nico Rosberg might now be a double world champion. Of course, we don't know who Mercedes would have signed to replace Michael Schumacher had Hamilton decided to go to Red Bull, but it's unlikely to have been someone at Hamilton's skill level.

Remember, Rosberg nearly won the championship in 2014. Had it been Hamilton's car, rather than Rosberg's, that had broken down in the Abu Dhabi night, Rosberg likely would have taken the title. If Hamilton had been struggling with Red Bull's Renault engines for the last two years, it's not hard to imagine Rosberg sweeping to back-to-back titles.

Meanwhile, Hamilton might still have won a second championship. Mark Webber was clearly at the end of his F1 career by 2013, and his results showed it. The Aussie never beat Vettel that year in a race they both finished. But imagine the battle between Vettel and Hamilton had they squared off in the RB9.

Maybe Vettel would still have come out on top with his new team-mate, but the Brit would definitely have made it a closer fight.

And what of Ferrari?

In 2012, there were already rumours linking Vettel with the Scuderia, per F1 Fanatic. The Italian team ran Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa in 2013 before Kimi Raikkonen replaced the Brazilian for 2014. If Hamilton had beaten Vettel in 2013, though, could the German's jump to Ferrari have come a year earlier?

In our alternate reality, that would leave Hamilton at Red Bull, Vettel at Ferrari and Rosberg at Mercedes. Now we are really getting into a game of mythical musical chairs, but with Alonso looking to leave Ferrari at the end of 2014, if Mercedes had been unable to secure a driver with real star power by that point, could the Spaniard have joined the Silver Arrows instead of McLaren?

That would make Alonso your 2015 world champion, as there is no way Rosberg would have beaten him in the same car.

Or, perhaps Mercedes would have snapped up one of the younger talents who showed their potential in 2013 and 2014—someone like Valtteri Bottas or Nico Hulkenberg.

Alternatively, if Vettel had won the 2013 championship over Hamilton and both drivers had opted to stay at Red Bull for another year, the big loser in this scenario would have been Daniel Ricciardo.

After beating out his Toro Rosso team-mate Jean-Eric Vergne for a vacant Red Bull seat in 2014, the Aussie promptly established himself as a champion-in-waiting with three surprising victories in Canada, Hungary and Belgium. A Hamilton-Vettel partnership at Red Bull would have blocked his ascent.

That might have meant another year at Toro Rosso for both Ricciardo and Vergne. And with such a backlog of drivers, would Red Bull still have been in position to offer Max Verstappen a 2015 race seat with their sister team?

Without that incentive, Verstappen could easily have been signed by Mercedes, who could have groomed him in GP2 or Formula Renault 3.5 for a year before promoting him to F1 in 2016 (perhaps with Manor, who are using Mercedes engines this year). That would have been too bad for the fans, as Verstappen was one of the most exciting drivers on the grid this year.

Alright, that's enough of fantasyland. It's always fun to think "what if?" but now we are heading back to harsh reality, where we are less than two months away from the start of what looks like another dominant year for Mercedes and Hamilton. 

When the inevitable complaints begin about Hamilton winning everything in sight, though, just remember: One of the best talents of this generation could be stuck in an uncompetitive car at Red Bull while Nico Rosberg closes in on his third straight drivers' championship.

Follow me on Twitter for updates when I publish new articles and for other (mostly F1-related) news and banter:

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Red Bull enter the 2016 Formula One season aiming to return to the top step of the podium after a disappointing and winless 2015 campaign.

The Austrian team lost their place as best of the rest to Ferrari, frequently found themselves outpaced by Williams and managed just three podiums on their way to fourth in the constructors' championship.

Their total of 187 points was by far the lowest they have ever achieved under the current scoring system, and 2015 was the first season since 2008 in which they failed to win a single race.

Their car that year was the RB4, and in the hands of David Coulthard and Mark Webber, it scored just 29 points. But 2008 wasn't a total loss.

The RB4 was also entered by sister team Toro Rosso, painted in different colours and with a different engine in the back; with Sebastian Vettel at the wheel, it won the 2008 Italian Grand Prix.

Thanks to Vettel's victory, Toro Rosso ended the season sixth in the constructors' championship with 39 points, beating their big brothers for the first—and thus far, only—time in their short history.

A Ferrari engine powered their success back then, and 2016 will see the relationship with their fellow Italians restored. Toro Rosso will use year-old Ferrari power units, while Red Bull will, as they were in 2008, be users of a current-specification Renault.

Power-unit performance has been the key to on-track success since the start of the V6 turbo hybrid era, and smaller teams have often come out on top against larger rivals thanks to a bit of extra grunt.

The Ferrari engine that raced in the 2015 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix—the specification Toro Rosso will be using—was substantially more powerful and reliable than its Renault counterpart, and there are no guarantees the French manufacturer will make any significant progress over the winter.

So are we about to witness the most shocking giant-killing in recent memory—could Toro Rosso beat Red Bull?

The early races of the 2015 season saw the smaller teams punching above their weight on more than one occasion, and Toro Rosso certainly got off to a flyer. As Red Bull struggled to get to grips with their new RB11, the junior team often came out on top.

The first time they did it was at the Malaysian Grand Prix at Sepang. Though unable to match Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat over a single lap, the two Toro Rosso rookies—both on only their second F1 start—got the better of them in the race.

Max Verstappen drove around the outside of Ricciardo at Turn 1 on his way to scoring the first F1 points of his career for seventh, while Carlos Sainz Jr. recovered superbly from 15th on the grid to take eighth.

Kvyat could only manage ninth, and Ricciardo was 10th.

Both Toro Rossos beat both Red Bulls on only one further occasion where all four finished, at the Japanese Grand Prix later in the year, but seeing one of the youngsters come home ahead of a driver from their big brother team was not that uncommon in the first half of the season.

Verstappen was going to be the top driver of the quartet in China before his late car failure, Sainz famously snatched ninth from Kvyat in Spain with a late pass and Ricciardo found himself starting the Austrian Grand Prix behind both of the Baby Bulls.

Sainz didn't make it to the end in Spielberg, but Verstappen came home in eighth—two places ahead of the top Red Bull.

The strong performances of the junior squad were something of an embarrassment to Red Bull. Since the start of 2014, they've been laying the blame for their lack of competitiveness firmly at the door of Renault.

For the most part they were entirely right to do so—the French manufacturer's weak power unit was indeed the primary reason they were no longer a front-running team. It lacked both power and reliability, putting Mercedes far out of Red Bull's reach.

But it wasn't the only reason, and after qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix—where the Toro Rossos stunningly locked out the third row on the grid, half a second clear of the Red Bulls—Ricciardo admitted his team had problems on the chassis side as well.

Ahead of the next race, in Monaco, he told press (h/t ESPN.com's Nate Saunders):

I think we knew even before Spain but I think that highlighted it's not only engine. I think everyone's obviously now aware of that and putting their hands up as well and saying 'Yeah, we know, it's not where it should be'. Obviously the last four or five years for Red Bull, one standout was the downforce and particularly high-speed corners. Even last year we were always pretty strong in high-speed. I thought it was our strength as a team.

This year we're not better than anyone in high-speed, if anything I think we're even slower than the top guys in high-speed corners. So that's just one area where for whatever reason we haven't taken our normal step forward and the other teams have. We're losing out in a few places, as I said everyone in the team knows now, it's just trying to figure out why and how to fix it. But it's not just Renault.

But it wasn't just Red Bull, either.

It wasn't the case that Toro Rosso were accidentally beating a big team because the big team was having problems—the Faenza squad had built themselves an exceptionally good car that was a match for almost anything else on the grid.

BBC Sport's Andrew Benson revealed late in the season that engineers down the pit lane considered the STR10 to be one of the top three chassis—better than the Ferrari SF15-T and McLaren MP4-30.

And it had been produced on one of the lowest budgets in F1. Per Autosport's Dieter Rencken, Toro Rosso's 2015 budget was just £90 million—equal with Sauber, with only Manor spending less.

By the end of the season, Red Bull had unlocked the secrets of the RB11 and pulled clear, but the Toro Rosso was still a quick, competitive car all the way to the final race.

Technical director James Key is going nowhere, and with the regulations remaining stable for 2016, we can expect the team to do another fine job on the STR11. Matching the RB12 is beyond them, but they can certainly get close.

The STR11's main weakness will be the power unit. Toro Rosso are using year-old Ferrari engines for 2016, frozen at the specification used by their Italian neighbours at the season-ending 2015 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

But for all this is a handicap when it comes to fighting the very best teams, the 2015 Ferrari was a very, very strong engine—and there's a good chance that, at least for the early races, it will be better than the 2016-spec Renault engine being used by Red Bull.

Speaking on his website in early January about how he felt his team was progressing with the new car, Verstappen said:

Things are looking good. Of course you always aim to improve the car but the first signs do look promising. The STR10 was already very good in fast corners, so I’m looking forward what this year’s car brings.

The Ferrari engine is probably the biggest step. I’m expecting a lot from it. A big gain on the engine front makes everything a lot easier. I expect to gain about a second a lap because of engine performance alone, which is a lot. So I think we can make bigger steps then our close rivals.

All the teams have advanced simulation technology, so the second-per-lap figure was not plucked out of thin air—Verstappen will have seen the data, and from that he will know almost exactly what sort of gains the Ferrari will provide.

That full second would, at almost every circuit, have been enough for Toro Rosso to comfortably beat Red Bull in 2015.

But whether it's enough to put the junior team ahead of the big boys in 2016 is largely down to what Renault can do in response.

Red Bull's 2016 power units will have "Tag Heuer" written on the side, but under the skin, they will be Renaults. Though the French carmaker's 2015 engine was poor relative to the Mercedes and Ferrari, it does possess one thing its quicker rivals do not: a lot of room for improvement.

The closer a power unit gets to the theoretical maximum possible performance level, the harder it is to make substantial gains. The Renault is a long way from that optimum, so a gain of a full second, maybe more, from 2015 to 2016 is not an unrealistic target.

It's not guaranteed—there remains a chance the power unit will remain as far off the pace as it was last year.

But Renault have surely exhausted every possible route to failure, and they can now call on the assistance of engine experts Ilmor—best known for building the Mercedes engines that powered Mika Hakkinen to back-to-back drivers' titles with McLaren in the late '90s.

So the most likely outcome is that Renault will make at least some form of tangible progress with the 32 tokens they have to spend. Even Red Bull are optimistic on this, with team manager Jonathan Wheatley telling GPUpdate:

There's some very good news coming out of France at the moment.

It's not going to be extraordinary, but they've made some gains—it's very positive.

I think that's probably where we are at the moment. Is it going to be on the same level as the other [leading] power units in 2016? I think that's probably unlikely. But we only need to get close.

If the new Renault is "close" to the 2016-spec efforts from Mercedes and Ferrari, it would almost certainly give Red Bull enough power to hold off their sister team. Both will create quality chassis, but Red Bull's budget is far higher and—with respect to Toro Rosso—they have some of the best personnel in the pit lane.

They'll produce one of the best cars and, once the improved Renault engine is ready, common sense tells us they will be ahead.

But before it's ready? That could be a different story.

Renault proved in 2015 that they will not rush upgrades until they are satisfied they are ready. The supplier had 12 tokens left over from the pre-2015 winter development phase, but by the time October rolled round and the season was nearly over, they hadn't spent any of them.

Autosport's Lawrence Barretto reported they had used 11 tokens before the United States Grand Prix, but the upgrade wasn't run until the penultimate race of the year.

If Renault drag their heels again in 2016, Red Bull could face a significant wait for a proper boost in power—and this could open the door for Toro Rosso, with their solid, reliable and all-round decent 2015-spec Ferrari engine, to be quicker in the early part of the year.

Finishing the season with more constructors' championship points than their illustrious stablemates is surely too much to ask.

But it won't be too surprising if Toro Rosso have their noses ahead when the European leg of the season kicks off in early May.

Ice in his Veins. Go onboard with @Max33Verstappen for some #F1 sledging. Full 📽👉https://t.co/oksj71dRFxhttps://t.co/SNFFTKMmsZ

— Oracle Red Bull Racing (@redbullracing) January 15, 2016

As the tweet says, Max Verstappen has ice in his veins.

That much is clear after watching this exhilarating video of the Red Bull Formula One driver racing his car around a snow-capped mountain course.

Particularly terrifying is the opening sequence, which shows Verstappen tearing alongside what appears to be a sheer cliff face.

Who else would have the guts to try this?

[Twitter: @redbullracing]

So where do Red Bull go from here?

For the first time since the last of their four title-winning seasons in 2013, it felt as though the team had a plan of action in September when, as reported by Autosport's Dieter Rencken and Lawrence Barretto, Red Bull "issued a document requesting a termination" of their nine-year relationship with engine suppliers Renault.

Finally set to be freed from the most poisonous excuse for a chassis-engine "partnership"—and no longer compelled to run the V6 turbo power unit that has been their main obstacle to further success since the beginning of 2014—it seemed as though Red Bull were making active steps to return to the front of the grid and to ensure their downturn in form would only be temporary.

That arrangement, though, required a little help from Red Bull's friends, and Mercedes and Ferrari—the manufacturers of the most powerful engines on the modern Formula One grid—were initially receptive to the idea of filling the void left by Renault.

As long ago as June's Austrian Grand Prix, Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne told Sky Sports' Pete Gill of his "respect" for Red Bull. In August, Mercedes motorsport boss Toto Wolff told Italian publication La Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t Grand Prix.com) how Red Bull were "an attractive option" for his team. 

Yet despite leading Red Bull on, both manufacturers are no longer eager to join forces with the Milton Keynes-based outfit.

Breaking: Ferrari decided not to give Red Bull any engines for 2016. They would only supply ToroRosso. AMuS (German) http://t.co/Eeybmpih63

— Tobi Grüner 🏁 (@tgruener) October 9, 2015

After the Italian GP, Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble reported that Daimler, Mercedes' parent company, had "gone cold on the idea" of supplying Red Bull. 

On the eve of this weekend's Russian Grand Prix, meanwhile, German publication Auto Motor und Sport (h/t Sky Sports) has suggested Ferrari "are only willing" to supply power units to Toro Rosso, Red Bull's B-team, and not the four-time world champions.  

And the team who have spent much of this season making empty, hollow threats to quit F1 may now—without an engine to power their cars for 2016—be left with no option but to walk away.

Mercedes and Ferrari's handling of Red Bull has offered yet more evidence that the V6 turbo regulations are not fit for purpose, giving leading manufacturers increased power in every sense of the word, to the point where they can effectively play God with customer teams.

With an intimate technical partnership with the new Haas team—which, per BBC Sport's Andrew Benson, will see the Prancing Horse provide "as many parts as is allowed" under the current regulations—Ferrari have given the gift of life to the American outfit. Meanwhile, Manor Marussia's 2016 engine deal with Mercedes will see the Silver Arrows revive a team who were given the last rites just 12 months ago.

The way Mercedes and Ferrari almost seemed to have conspired to impose a death sentence on Red Bull is the latest example of competitors being unable to suspend their own interests for the good of the sport.

But although their reluctance to aid Red Bull is undoubtedly a consequence of their unwillingness to strengthen a direct rival—Bernie Ecclestone recently told Autosport's Ian Parkes how Marchionne was "frightened" of upsetting his Ferrari colleagues—it highlights a major flaw in the psyche of F1 teams.

Rather than viewing Red Bull as a danger to their supremacy—a team who, with power parity, could steal the accolades reserved for them—Mercedes and Ferrari should regard them as worthy challengers and, in supplying them engines, an opportunity to validate their own achievements and cement their greatness.

On a weekend Mercedes can secure their second successive constructors' title—and when establishing a legacy of some description will soon be of paramount importance—winning the F1 championship without teams of Red Bull's stature risks being the equivalent of winning the Wimbledon tennis tournament when the main contenders are forced to withdraw through injury.

The trophy would still gleam. The prize money would still expand the bank balance. But the satisfaction, the fulfillment and the majesty of victory would not be the same as competing head-to-head against the best of the business on even ground. And winning.

It is, then, a sad reflection of F1 that the most successful team in the sport's history and the most victorious outfit of the modern era simply do not back themselves to beat a customer-engined Red Bull.

And if Red Bull are left dangling at the end of this year, they can take much solace from the fact that Ferrari and Mercedes were not bold or brave enough to take them on.

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By the end, Fernando Alonso wasn't concerned about the potential consequences—his only priority was wriggling his way out of Ferrari.

In the first free-practice session ahead of last year's Japanese Grand Prix—24 hours after negotiating an early release from his contract, according to Sky Sports' Pete Gill—Alonso strolled into the Ferrari garage clutching a bunch of grapes, which he offered to everyone in sight.

The ritual, symbolic of a fresh start in his homeland of Spain, acted as confirmation that Alonso, after five years of carrying the team to only limited success, had given up.

Fernando Alonso shares a bunch of grapes with his @InsideFerrari mechanics during FP1 #JapaneseGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/osGcunjYwi

— Formula 1 (@F1) October 3, 2014

Although his plans for 2015 had yet to be finalised at that stage, his assumption was that the likes of Mercedes and Red Bull Racing would move Mount Fuji to get him—a two-time world champion—behind the wheel of one of their cars the following season.

Yet his confidence was misplaced.

The announcement of Sebastian Vettel's departure from Red Bull to Ferrari ahead of qualifying at Suzuka pushed Alonso beyond the point of no return at the Prancing Horse, as the four-time world champions' immediate promotion of Daniil Kvyat blocked one of his favoured destinations.

And when Alonso's plot to swap positions with Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes failed, according to Jonathan Noble in a print issue of Autosport magazine, the most complete driver of his generation was left vulnerable.

That meant that as the 2014 edition of musical chairs reached its climax, Alonso was forced to choose between the three-legged stool of McLaren-Honda and to remain standing, to take a yearlong sabbatical and risk never returning, in the hope that his reputation would secure a championship-winning car in 2016.

The predicament Alonso found himself in, and the speed with which the ground crumbled beneath him, should have been a lesson for Formula One drivers and teams to conduct their business in a structured, professional fashion.

It should have warned the paddock against making "anything but" decisions based on frustration and—in this sport where "anything can happen" and "usually does," as the great Murray Walker famously said, via Eurosport—taught them to never work on the basis of assumption.

Yet the team that exerted such confidence and control in slamming the door in Alonso's face last year now find themselves in a nearly identical situation, weakened to the point where their very presence on the grid is in doubt.

Red Bull's longstanding discontent with engine supplier Renault—which can be traced back to at least 2012, when a number of mechanical failures jeopardised Vettel's third title triumph—has become increasingly apparent since the introduction of the V6 turbo regulations at the beginning of 2014.

Crippled by an engine lacking power, driveability and reliability, Red Bull have won just three grands prix over the last 18 months and are on course for their first winless season in seven years in 2015. 

They have also grown tired of trying to disguise such fundamental flaws, so much so that Red Bull are willing to sacrifice their status as a works team and place the glass ceiling that is a customer engine above their heads.

As reported by Autosport's Dieter Rencken and Lawrence Barretto over the Italian GP weekend, the team "issued a document requesting a termination of the partnership" that sealed its fourth consecutive world championship as recently as 2013.

The problem for Red Bull, however, is that they have no concrete alternative, reducing one of the most powerful and influential teams in the pit lane to scrambling for a 2016 engine deal.

Honda's apparent loyalty to McLaren meant they were never a serious option, although Mercedes had indicated a willingness to supply the team, with team boss Toto Wolff telling Italian paper La Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t GrandPrix.com) that Red Bull are "an attractive option" for the Mercedes brand.

But according to Motorsport.com's Noble, the Silver Arrows' reluctance to strengthen a direct competitor with the finest power unit in modern-day F1 has outweighed the potential commercial benefits, leaving Red Bull with a straight choice: Ferrari or nothing.

Pretty certain Renault deal to buy Lotus has/will be done. BIG question now will Merc/Ferrari give ammunition for Red Bull's formidable gun?

— Martin Brundle OBE (@MBrundleF1) September 19, 2015

At June's Austrian Grand Prix, Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne told Gill in a separate Sky Sports article of his admiration for Red Bull and how he would be "more than glad" to help them "find their way again."

Yet F1 ringmaster Bernie Ecclestone's recent suggestion, via Autosport's Ian Parkes, that Marchionne is "frightened" of offering a helping hand to Red Bull for the same reasons as Mercedes, particularly after Daniel Ricciardo's second place in Singapore, means that the sport's worst nightmare—losing all four Red Bull-backed cars—could soon be realised.

The multiple quit threats issued by Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz, advisor Dr. Helmut Marko and team principal Christian Horner since the beginning of the year have often been dismissed as lacking substance, with much justification.

But the three wise men are fast becoming the boys who cried wolf, and their latest ultimatum—released via Red Bull's in-house media outlet, Speedweek (h/t ESPN F1)—carries an increasingly worried tone, explaining that "a clear scenario emerges" for anyone who can see the reality of the situation.

Withdrawing from the sport initially seemed like a last resort for Red Bull, but having severed their ties with Renault and with no guarantee of a little help from their friends—and consequently, no engine to power their car—the most successful F1 team of the last decade could be hung out to dry.

As with Alonso, every manufacturer wants to be associated with Red Bull, but nobody yearns to work alongside them. 

And just like the matador and his sour grapes 12 months ago, the bulls are not quite as smart or as treasured as they like to think they are.

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In football, they refer to it simply as the Dustbin Run.

As author Mike Calvin told Sky Sports, the training exercise requires its participants to complete "300-yard" shuttle runs from a makeshift start line to a "council bin" at the opposite end of a field, with no fixed timescale.

Its purpose is not to enhance a young player's agility, acceleration and sprint speed, or to boost their endurance levels—but to make them vomit. 

It is at that point, as their breakfast becomes a fertiliser, when the decision lies with the player: Do they have the guts to continue, or do they cry for mercy?

Such a routine can provide the tormentors otherwise known as coaches with more information about their squad than facts, figures and statistics ever could, for it offers what Calvin calls a test of "character," an indication of whether the will to succeed outweighs the very act of success itself.

In the dying minutes of a match—when bodies are bent and broken, skill is stripped away, finesse is futile and talent is trivial—just who can a manager rely upon to summon the strength to drag his team to victory? And who will be among those signalling to the substitutes' bench, missing in action and searching for a way out?

The value of spirit and determination can often be overlooked—and sometimes dismissed as prehistorical—on the highly scientific landscape of modern sport, where events seem to follow the course of a predefined script shaped by "data."

Yet character and human nature, even in as systematic a sport as Formula One, remain vital as Daniil Kvyat prepares to return to the Singapore Grand Prix, the scene of his own Dustbin Run in 2014.

A problem with his Toro Rosso ahead of last year's race forced Kvyat to enter the most physically challenging event on the calendar—due to its 23 corners, 61 laps, 80 percent humidity and ambient temperatures of up to 35 degrees centigrade, per Pirelli's official website—without the aid of his in-car drink supply.

Rather than simply coping with the situation with minimal complaints, however—in the style of Kevin Magnussen, a fellow rookie, who after heaving his McLaren to 10th place received medical treatment for back burns, per BBC Sport's Andrew Benson—Kvyat allowed the problem to dictate his entire race.

He allowed the issue to place a psychological restriction on what he could achieve, to the point where he was pleading to withdraw from the grand prix.

"We need to stop!" he screeched over the pit-to-car radio 17 laps from the chequered flag, per F1 Fanatic's Keith Collantine, reporting he was on the verge of "dying" just seconds later and claiming he couldn't "drive any more" on the penultimate lap, so near yet so far from salvation. 

And on an evening when his team-mate, Jean-Eric Vergne, produced his best performance of the season to finish sixth, Kvyat got exactly what his self-pity deserved: Nothing.

In a distinctly impressive rookie season, in which he became the youngest-ever point-scorer in F1 history in his debut race, this was the first time Kvyat's youth and inexperience told and his status as a future world champion could be called into question.

He could chase a driver of Kimi Raikkonen's calibre around Albert Park, driving with the serenity of someone who belonged at the summit. He could complete the final lap at Monza, the fastest circuit in F1, with no brakes. And he could somehow take his Toro Rosso to fifth on the grid in his home race at Sochi.

But when circumstance conspired against him and he needed to rely on more than car control, did he have the substance, the resilience, the character to achieve greatness?

This year, however, it is a very different Daniil Kvyat who arrives at Singapore, and the 23 turns that minced his muscles 12 months ago will favour the Russian and Red Bull Racing, who promoted him to replace four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel just 13 days after the meltdown of Marina Bay.

Unable to challenge for podiums and victories on a regular basis in 2015, due to the RB11 car's lack of straight-line speed, Red Bull have long targeted Singapore as a season-defining race, a chance to remember what it feels like to compete with Mercedes and Ferrari on even ground.

With the twists and turns of Singapore set to disguise the team's power deficit and provide a stringent test of their new aerodynamic philosophy—per Motorsport.com's Giorgio Piola, the days of running the car "as low as possible to the ground" are over—Red Bull should be on course for their best performance in some time this weekend.

When your water bottle fails… 💦🔥😮 @Dany_Kvyat’s #SingaporeGP view: http://t.co/ffiJl7ZIwp #F1 pic.twitter.com/YwFS7XQjkN

— Oracle Red Bull Racing (@redbullracing) September 14, 2015

And it may be left to Kvyat, who told the team's official website how he feels "much better prepared from a physical point of view," to lead their charge.

After an unflattering start to his first year as a Red Bull driver, which saw him score just five points in the opening five races, Kvyat has become the team's most confident, aggressive and spectacular performer in recent months and currently leads team-mate Daniel Ricciardo, a three-time grand prix winner, in the drivers' standings.

Fourth-place finishes in Monaco and Belgium have been behind his change in fortune, but it is his maiden podium finish in Hungary, where he claimed second place from seventh on the grid, that remains the defining race of his season thus far.

Dany: “This race told me the true meaning of never giving up. It was a crazy race!" 🏆🎉🏁#HungarianGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/2GVd9w5z7l

— Oracle Red Bull Racing (@redbullracing) July 26, 2015

From the moment he clambered from the cockpit at the Hungaroring, Kvyat knew he had gained not only a podium but a life lesson—something he could carry with him for the rest of his career—having recovered from a first-corner lockup to secure his best-ever finish, telling ESPN F1's Nate Saunders:

After Turn 1 I thought my race was over...I could hardly stay on track. Then the team told me to keep pushing. Some people say 'never give up' but they don't know what they're saying. Until today I didn't know what it means really, but today I really learned what it means not to give up because it can always come your way.

Defeated and demoralised by the dustbin and without the stomach for a fight a year ago, the boy who cried help should become a man in Singapore this weekend.

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The verdict delivered by Dr. Evil was as blunt as it was damning.

Helmut Marko, Red Bull's motorsport consultant, had just witnessed his young-driver scheme, the best junior academy in Formula One, turned on its head over the Spanish Grand Prix weekend.

The might of Red Bull Racing, the four-time constructors' champions, had—not for the first time in the opening five races of 2015—been upstaged by their support act, Scuderia Toro Rosso, at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.

Carlos Sainz Jr. and Max Verstappen, the rookie pairing, had locked out the third row of the grid in Spain, and while Daniel Ricciardo salvaged some pride for the A-team by finishing seventh in the race, it was Toro Rosso who made the greatest impression.

"Our established guys need to look out," Marko told Kleine Zeitung (h/t Motorsport.com) after the race. "Paradoxically, the more inexperienced ones did the better job."

While Marko's threat was targeted at both Red Bull drivers, despite Ricciardo's three grand prix wins the previous campaign, it was obvious that the main source of his frustration was Daniil Kvyat.

Stewards decide to take no further action over Sainz/Kvyat last-lap incident >> http://t.co/bDLmfD7lbD #SpanishGP pic.twitter.com/3HN2dZeYic

— Formula 1 (@F1) May 10, 2015

Despite qualifying ahead of Ricciardo in Spain, the Russian endured a terrible race, which began with the loss of five places on the opening lap and ended with a collision with Sainz on the final lap as Kvyat came dangerously close to ruining the home hero's breakthrough weekend in F1.

Sainz's pass on Kvyat, which sandwiched him between the Toro Rossos in 10th place, was symbolic, fueling the theory that the 21-year-old, still with much to learn in just his second season in the sport, was out of place at Red Bull, a junior driver lost in a championship-winning team.

Although he had been a victim of Red Bull's fall from grace in the early stages of 2015—failing to start the season-opening Australian GP after a pre-race gearbox issue and retiring with an engine failure in China—Kvyat had made an untidy start to life at Red Bull.

And his struggles for both pace and consistency, as we feared in the offseason, would have left Marko and Red Bull team boss Christian Horner—having witnessed Ricciardo and Sebastian Vettel make seamless transitions from Toro Rosso—with much to ponder.

If Kvyat continued to flounder, would Red Bull afford him time to improve? Would they, with the hype surrounding the Toro Rosso drivers growing, demote him to STR and offer Verstappen or Sainz a chance alongside Ricciardo for 2016?

Or would they release Kvyat into the wild in the same brutal fashion Toro Rosso have always treated drivers who waste their time?

Kvyat's problem, aside from his own frailties, was that the extraordinary performances of Sainz and Verstappen had made the Russian's phenomenal achievements in his own rookie season appear relatively mediocre.

The youngest-ever point-scorer in F1 history on debut in Australia 2014? Nothing special—Max beat that record, by a margin of three years, in just his second race.

Fifth on the grid in the Russian Grand Prix? So what? Max qualified sixth in Malaysia; Carlos was fifth in Spain.

Alongside a driver as fast and reliable as Ricciardo, and with his own accomplishments surpassed by Verstappen and Sainz, it has become easy to dismiss and overlook Kvyat at a time Red Bull's pool of talent is richer than ever before.

Yet since being overtaken by Sainz in Spain—and, indeed, being publicly criticised by Marko—Kvyat has offered frequent reminders of his talent, beating Ricciardo in four of the last five races to jump from 15th in the championship to eighth, just six points behind his team-mate.

It was no coincidence that Kvyat's career-best finish of fourth came in Monaco, the race immediately after the Spanish GP, and the confidence he took from that afternoon—specifically Ricciardo's gentlemanly decision to slow on the run toward the finish line, gifting the Russian the position—has been built upon.

As Horner told Autosport's Lawrence Barretto, Kvyat would have been in contention for a podium finish at Silverstone had he not "lost 10 to 12 seconds" with a spin on his in-lap while in pursuit of Vettel, whom he had passed around the outside of Brooklands on Lap 1.

His wait for a first F1 podium, though, ended in the Hungarian Grand Prix, where despite producing what was arguably his least convincing performance since Spain, Kvyat finished second, the kind of result that tends to happen when an athlete is strong in both form and confidence.

Despite qualifying 0.558 seconds slower than Ricciardo, per the official F1 website, flat-spotting his tyres with a massive lock-up at the first corner, being forced to move aside for his team-mate and incurring a 10-second time penalty for exceeding track limits while passing Lewis Hamilton, he still managed to finish a comfortable second place.

And there you have it, the sweet taste of Champagne for the first time this season! #HungarianGP #F1 🙌 🎉 🏆 pic.twitter.com/KjIoSxf1Wy

— Oracle Red Bull Racing (@redbullracing) July 26, 2015

Kvyat later told ESPN F1's Nate Saunders how he "thought [his] race was over" after tyre smoke filled the Budapest air on the opening lap. 

"Some people say 'never give up' but they don't know what they're saying," he added. "Until today I didn't know what it means really, but today I really learned what it means not to give up because it can always come your way."

It was a comment that not only summarised his afternoon, but his first 10 races as a Red Bull driver.

Dany: “This race told me the true meaning of never giving up. It was a crazy race!" 🏆🎉🏁#HungarianGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/2GVd9w5z7l

— Oracle Red Bull Racing (@redbullracing) July 26, 2015

He may not be as fashionable and as popular as Ricciardo. He might not be as thrilling to watch as Sainz and Verstappen.

But Kvyat—as Toro Rosso team boss Franz Tost, who oversaw the development of Vettel and Ricciardo as well as Verstappen and Sainz, told the official F1 website—is "very, very skilled—he has the champion gene."

Underestimate him at your peril.

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