Why Fans Shouldn't Get Too Excited About the New York Mets' Hot Start

The New York Mets are the hottest team in baseball right now, sitting atop the National League East following nine consecutive wins, but Mets fans should be cautious as winners are not declared in April.
The Mets currently boast the joint-best record in Major League Baseball at 11-3, tied with the Detroit Tigers. The last time the Mets started off this hot, their season ended with a World Series title in 1986.
The team’s fantastic start is due in large part to their two standout pitchers, Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom. Harvey has returned in scintillating form during his first regular-season action since Tommy John surgery. The 26-year-old earned wins in his first three starts, striking out 24 batters in the process, including making Giancarlo Stanton look helpless in the at-bat shown below.
Last year’s Rookie of the Year DeGrom is matching suit with a 0.93 ERA and 17 strikeouts through 19.1 innings. Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese showoff ERA’s of 2.25 and 1.59 respectively, leaving people in Queens cautiously optimistic.
“The players we have the staff we have are very pleased with the way we started, especially in the wake of injuries and suspension,” the Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson said to the New York Post’s George Willis. “We’ll see if it continues. It can disappear just as easily [as] it appeared.”
Alderson’s questioning of success moving forward seems realistic with injuries piling up for the Mets. A good start to the season can be completely derailed by a few key losses.
Sunday’s victory over the the Marlins came at a steep price. The Mets’ starting catcher, Travis D’Arnaud, left the game with a broken right hand after being hit by a pitch—shown in the video below (0:36).
The loss of their man behind the plate is massive for the Mets. The 26-year-old led the team with 10 RBI and posted a .317 batting average and two home runs before the injury.
Jerry Blevins fractured his left forearm after being hit by a line drive. The loss of the relief pitcher is a blow to the bullpen, as the hard-throwing left-hander has retired all 15 of the batters he has faced so far this year.
These injuries are only the latest that the Mets have to deal with. Star third baseman David Wright is on the the 15-day disabled list after suffering a hamstring injury on April 16.
Zack Wheeler’s need to have season-ending Tommy John surgery during spring training also provided a blow to the back end of the starting pitching rotation. Wheeler proved to be a workhorse for the team last year, ranking third in innings pitched for the Mets with 185.1 and making all 32 starts of his scheduled starts.
Non-coincidentally, the only starter in New York’s rotation performing poorly is Dillon Gee with a 7.59 ERA. Gee would most likely not be in the starting rotation if Wheeler was healthy, showing the Mets could be one more significant injury away from losing their pitching advantage.
The strength of opposition also comes into question through these first 14 games. A win is a win, but which teams did the Mets beat during their early-season success?
Not having faced any teams from outside of their division so far this season, the Mets have beat up on their National League East counterparts. Three of the Mets' wins came against the bottom-feeding Philadelphia Phillies. They also took advantage of Miami’s terrible 3-11 start to the season, sweeping the Marlins in a four-game series.
New York splits the season tally with the Braves 2-2 so far. They hold a slight edge over the struggling Nationals, winning two out of the possible three games from the defending National League East champs.
Moving forward, the Nationals look to still be favorite to bring home the division title, projected to win 99 games with the best record in Major League Baseball, according to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Chen. This leaves the Mets to fight for a wild-card spot in the National League.
On top of the division winners, the Pirates, Giants and Brewers all finished above the Mets in the race for the National League wild-card spot last year. The last teams into the playoffs needed 88 wins to qualify last season. The Mets finished with 79 wins last season, tied with the Atlanta Braves.
A healthy Harvey and more experienced DeGrom could help the team in Flushing, New York earn a few more wins this year. However, they also have to compete with the rising Chicago Cubs and new-look San Diego Padres. The Mets wre projected to finish third in the NL East with 82 wins in Chen’s preseason preview.
Eleven wins have predictably created excitement around Citi Field, but baseball is a long grind not meant for the short-sighted, leaving Mets fans with a reason for caution.