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The Complete EagleBank Bowl Guide: Wake Forest vs. Navy

Dec 18, 2008

This postseason, B/R college football writers are teaming up to preview every bowl game. Be sure to check them all out!

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4)

Saturday, Dec. 20, 2008 11:00 AM ET

RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C.

Spread: -3

How they got here...

Navy got here; well, because they're the Naval Academy. This is the inaugural EagleBank Bowl and being that the game is held in our nation's capital, the organizers were more than happy to invite the Independent Midshipmen team. 

Wake Forest finished a dismal third (three-way tie) in the ACC Atlantic Division, getting the early bowl bid.

Statistically speaking...

This is a much-anticipated (if you live in Winston-Salem) rematch of a game played in late September in which Navy handed the Deacons their first loss of the season. Wake Forest had high hopes of success in a shallow ACC conference this year, but proved that they can't hold water either. 

Navy has been playing good football against bad teams. Their most impressive win was against this Wake Forest team and they were handed losses at the hands of Notre Dame and Duke. However, they have been playing defense well, having not been scored on since the Notre Dame game on Nov. 15.

Wake Forest wins if...

...quarterback Riley Skinner throws to the right team. In their previous game, Skinner threw four interceptions. Besides that, he was 26/40 for 270 yards and a touchdown. 

The WF defense also needs to contain Navy's wishbone offense, and not give up the yards on the ground that they did back in September.

Navy wins if...

...they run, run, run. The Midshipmen led college football with 298.3 rushing yards per game. Running back Eric Kettani racked up 175 yards against Wake Forest in the first meeting.

B/R Expert Picks...

Trey Bradley: Wake Forest

Lisa Horne: Navy

Mitch: Wake Forest

Brian Scott: Wake Forest

David Wunderlich: Navy

Justin Goar:  Navy

GeorgiaDawg: Wake Forest

Michael Cline: Wake Forest

Mitch Picks The EagleBank Bowl: Wake Forest vs Navy 12/20/08

Dec 15, 2008

While I've enjoyed having a week to look at match ups and getting a chance to write about some other things besides just analyzing games and making picks, I'm ready for some college football action again.

My favorite thing I got to write about was the Coach of the Year Award, while it's something I was asked to write about several months ago by the award's sponsor, Liberty Mutual, it's something that I really wanted to wait until the finalists were announced before I wrote about and endorsed anyone, I also wanted to see how the season played out.

The main reasons I enjoyed it is an award the fans get to vote for and so much money gets given to charities and scholarship funds, and really that's what it's all about.

I am starting to see trickles of entries for the free bowl picking contest though to be honest I haven't looked at any of your picks. As things have grown I'm expecting this to be the biggest contest of the season. On a similar note, I have a good deal of Jordan's bowl picks and I will start posting some of them over the next couple of days.

Of course in order to get all of the free picks and to be eligible for the free picking contest  at The College Football Place, you need to sign up for the free newsletter which should take about 20 seconds total. If you have signed up and haven't received your entry form, make sure you have verified your subscription, while it isn't something I like, apparently it's the law as this is how our government thinks it is protecting us from spammers.

I will be using the same expanded format I use in the newsletter for all of my bowl picks and analysis so this will give those who haven't signed up a taste of what to expect, for the rest of you, this is what you have come to expect from us on a weekly basis.

Let's get this started with the first game of the College Football Bowl Season.

EagleBank Bowl   RFK Stadium Washington, D.C.

Wake Forest (7-5) Vs. Navy (8-4)

December 20, 2008  11 am EST  Current Line: Navy +3

Overview:

These two teams met on September 27, 2008 in a game where Wake Forest was a 17 point favorite and lost to Navy outright by a score of 24-17. In that game Wake QB Riley Skinner threw four interceptions, more than half of his season total of seven.

Navy finished the season strong winning four of their last five games while Wake Forest ended the year going 3-4 in their last seven games. Wake played a considerably tougher schedule as Navy's ranked 97th in the country this year.

While rematches aren't what Bowl Committees and bowl teams usually have in mind, this makes for a fairly decent game between two efficient teams.

See Mitch's College Football Bowl Pick against the spread

EagleBank Bowl Preveiw

Dec 13, 2008

The 2008 College Football Bowl season starts with the newest bowl game on the schedule. The Eagle Bank Bowl. This inaugural contest features the Wake Forest Demon Deacons(7-5) and the Navy Midshipmen(8-4).

This game features an underachieving Wake Forest squad and an overachieving Navy team which is what makes this bowl game interesting. What also makes this game interesting is that this is the second meeting between these two teams in the 2008 season.

The first game resulted in a 24-17 win for Navy. The loss for Wake Forest sent them in a downward spiral the rest of the year. Wake Forest was ranked 16th at the time of the upset versus Navy and they ended up losing two of their next three to Miami(FL) and to Maryland in a 26-0 debacle.

On the Navy side of things they have two big wins this year against Rutgers and Wake Forest and head coach Ken Niumatalolo has carried on the legacy and the efficiency on offense that Paul Johnson left behind.

Now when it comes to the game there are two emotional factors that will be key. Since the game is being played at RFK Stadium in Washington D.C. the fan support will probably lean toward the Midshipmen. Another factor is that Wake Forest will be seeking revenge against Navy who sent them into a losing streak in the middle of the regular season. 

For Navy to win they will have to control the game with their potent rushing attack led by 1000 yard rusher Shun White and Quarterback Kaipo-Noa-Kaheaku-Enhada. Enhada will have to make good decisions in that option offense to avoid 2nd and 3rd and long situations which plays into the hands of the Wake Forest secondary.

For Wake Forest to win Riley Skinner is going to have to make plays through the air to leading receiver D.J. Boldin because Wake Forests' top three rushers, including Skinner, combine for only 1032 yards with Brandon Pendergrass leading the rushing attack with 528 yards and five TD's.

My prediction for this game is as follows: Navy will pound the Wake Forest defense all day long and take home their first bowl win since 2005.

Final Score: Navy 28, Wake Forest 20

Boston College--Wake Forest Review

Nov 23, 2008

The Eagles of Boston College knew what they had to do, win. If BC wins out they will represent the ACC Atlantic title. BC and Virginia Tech are the only remaining teams that can control their own destiny.

A game that BC probably should have won easily turned into a struggle when 5th year senior Chris Crane went down with a broken collar bone. Prior to the injury Crane had a good game going for himself.

Enter redshirt freshman Dominique Davis, who had played in just two games prior to his entry in the game. It was a struggle for Davis the whole game when he fumbled twice and both fumbles lead to Wake Forest Touchdowns.

Davis was able to settle down and make enough key throws late in the nine play, 70 yard drive, which was capped off by a Davis sneak for a TD. Davis finished the game 13-23 for 103 yards. BC keeps its hopes alive by winning.

For Wake Forest, they have been eliminated from Orange bowl contention. Wake Forest had just one offensive score on the night and they were fortunate it wasn't a BC blowout.

BC can go to the ACC championship game with a home win against Maryland next week. If BC looses than Florida State will represent the Atlantic division.

For BC there is much work to do...Davis needs to work on his ball security and decision making. Davis made some promising throws. 

I believe that if Chris Crane wasn't injured in this one, well it would have been a blowout. I don't think Crane would have fumbled on those plays. As for the punt block...we knew it would happen eventually the way that they were flying into the backfield.

Montel Harris had a quite game, BC must of thought that Haden would be more successful against the Wake D.  

I took away 5 things from this game:

1. BC's defense can stop anyone at anytime
2. The game never should have been close
3. Wake's offense is the most overrated in a while
4. Davis showed signs of greatness, but needs alot of work
5. It looks like Crane's season is over (I don't know how collar bone injuries work).

I want to leave the rest of this article open to discussion.

Boston College - Wake Forest Preview, Winner Plays For Atlantic Title

Nov 20, 2008

It's simple, the winner of this one will go on to play for the ACC Atlantic division title. These teams are coming from different stories and different sides of the ball.

Wake Forest came into this year with high expectations. They had a solid start to their season, but since then it has been all down hill.

Wake Forest was praised for their offense in the preseason, with the return of Junior quarterback Riley Skinner, a third year starter, and sophomore running back Josh Adams, who rushed for 953 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Wake currently ranks 101st in the nation in total offense and 98th in scoring offense.

On the other hand Skinner has had a decent year for himself. He's completed 64% of his passes for 1,882 yards and has more than twice as many TD passes (11) as interceptions (5). Skinner has yet to have that true breakout game (350, four TD).

His top passing performance this year was 232 in an OT win verse Duke. He has yet to pass for more than two TDs in a game this year. You can't put the weight on Skinner, especially considering the lack of a rushing attack.

Josh Adams and Freshman Brandon Pendergrass are averaging just 3.6 and 3.3 yards per carry, respectively. They have combined for just six touchdowns. Adams has missed two of the last three with an ankle sprain.

On the receiving note, Wake has had a bit of a bright spot...DJ Boldin has caught 63 for 622 and three TDs. The problem for Boldin has been a break out game. His game high for receiving yards this season is just 89 in an OT win verse Duke. 

The O-line hasn't helped at all. Wake's O-line ranks 102nd in the nation in sacks allowed per game...On average, Skinner goes down two and 1/2 times a game. 

On the other side of the ball Wake has been more than solid. Wake is 28th in the nation in total defense and 18th in scoring defense. Wake has been better against the run (27th), than the pass (48th).

Cornerback Alphonso Smith is top in the nation amongst interception leaders with 5 picks. Kevin Paterson has added in four picks. Wake is ranked 3rd in turnover margin (+ 14). Aaron Curry is ranked 21st in the nation for tackles for a loss. The reason for Wake's success on defense: They start seven seniors and two juniors and eight members of Wake Forest's starting defense have at least 20 career starts. 

Bottom line:  After beating Clemson on October 9th, the Demon Deacons were 4-1 overall and 2-0 in the ACC. Since that time, Wake Forest is 2-3 with one of those victories coming in overtime against Duke (the other win was 28-17 over Virginia).

Wake not only lost 26-0 to Maryland but also lost to Navy earlier in the season. Last week, they lost to North Carolina State. The bottom line: Wake Forest is not playing very good football.

For BC, the people in Las Vegas weren't impressed by BC's win at FSU. Wake comes into the game as a two point favorite. BC has also struggled on offense this year, but it's understood. BC is still in the process of getting Chris Crane broken in. However they have shown a strong running attack with two true freshman Montell Harris and Josh Haden.

BC's success has come with the defense and special teams. BC has been intercepting balls left and right. They intercepted Claussen four times and Ponder three.

This game has defensive battle written all over it. A BC defense that has given up just 17 points in the past two weeks will face a Wake Forest offense that has had trouble moving the ball and scoring points this season. On the other side of the ball, BC's offense has been improving but putting up points against this talented and experienced Wake defense will not be easy.

This game, like most ACC games this season, will likely come down to turnovers. Wake Forest has created nearly twice as many turnovers (29) as they have committed (15) and BC leads the ACC in interceptions (21) so one would expect some big plays and maybe some scoring from the defenses.

BC has played excellent football the past nine quarters while Wake Forest has struggled. BC appears to be the better team right now but this is the ACC where it is impossible to predict anything from week to week. 

BC 27-10

Miscellaneous

BC holds a 7-6-1 advantage over Wake Forest in the all-time series. Wake is 3-2 in the last five years against BC.

Fourteen former Wake Forest players currently play in the NFL.

Wake CB Alphonso Smith is second in ACC history in pass interceptions with 19. North Carolina's Dre Bly had 20 between 1996 and 1998.

Wake Forest has been outscored 69-44 in the fourth quarter this season. They have outscored opponents 60-38 in the first quarter.

Wake Forest is eight for 16 in fourth down conversions this season.

Clemson at Wake Forest: The Tigers' Game Six Preview

Oct 9, 2008

Clemson (3-2) and Wake Forest (3-1) meet tonight at Wake Forest's BB&T Field.

Clemson owns 56 wins over Wake Forest in history, its second highest victory total over any opponent.

The last game for Wake Forest, coached by Jim Grobe, was a 24-17 loss to Navy, in which the Demon Deacons had six turnovers.

The last game for Clemson, coached by Tommy Bowden, was a 20-17 loss to Maryland.

Clemson on Offense

The Tigers' high-powered offense showed up for a half against Maryland last time out. They came out and ran the ball right down their throats, then gave up on the run in the second half.

Clemson QB had another shaky game throwing another pick and missing several throws. I would not be suprised if we saw some of Willy Korn tonight.

The Deacs defense gave tons of rushing yards to Navy in their last game, and the Tigers' will try to run all over them tonight also.

Clemson on Defense

The Clemson defense played pretty well against Maryland, the offense just kept putting them in bad positions.

The Wake Forest offense had an uncharacteristic six turnovers against Navy. The Deacs have a good QB in Riley Skinner who is the ACC's leading passer.

The Tigers will try to pressure Skinner into some mistakes tonight.

Special Teams

Both teams have very good return men who can change the game in an instance. Wake Forest has one of the best kickers in college football in Sam Swank, but he might end up being out for tonight's game. The Tiger's kicker, Mark Bucholz, has still not missed a field goal this year.

Final Decision

Tommy Bowden has a career record of 7-2 against Wake Forest, and tonight he may be coaching for his job.

C.J. Spiller has burned the Deacs the last two seasons with big plays for scores.

The Tigers historically tend to come out fighting when backed into a corner, which they certainly are.

I think Clemson will come out fired up and ready to go and beat the Deacs behind the strong running of James Davis and C.J. Spiller and behind a solid game from QB Cullen Harper.

Clemson 27, Wake Forest 20

Kickoff is at 7:30 on ESPN.

Week Seven ACC Predictions: Clemson-Wake Forest Highlights The Weekend

Oct 8, 2008

The ACC has had an interesting season to say the least.  Clemson and Virginia Tech, the two favorites to win their division, both lost in the first week of the season.  Wake Forest, now atop the Atlantic Division in the ACC, lost to Navy two weeks ago.  To top it off, Maryland beat Clemson one week and then was blown out by Virginia the next.  This is an unpredictable conference, but here are this weeks picks.

Wake Forest 17, Clemson 13

Expect this to be more of a defensive battle as both teams have very good defenses.  Clemson has not lived up to the hype so far this season, and their offense has struggled at times.  Riley Skinner looked very good in his first three games, but then threw four interceptions against Navy.  This should be a good game, and the winner will likely represent the Atlantic Division in the ACC Championship.

East Carolina 27, UVA 10

Virginia is coming off a big 31-point win over Maryland, but I don't see them repeating that performance against East Carolina this week.  Maryland has been incredibly inconsistent so far this season, and UVA has been down-right awful for most of it.  Patrick Pinkney and Company should be too much for the Wahoos to handle.

Georgia Tech 56, Gardner-Webb 0

Not much to say about this one, other than it won't be close.

North Carolina 35, Notre Dame 34

This should be an interesting match-up.  Both teams are 4-1, with good wins and tough losses.  Notre Dame has beaten Michigan and Purdue, while losing to Michigan State.  North Carolina has downed UCONN and Miami, but lost to Virginia Tech.  A few points should be scored in this one, but I think North Carolina's defense will make just enough plays to hold off Jimmy Clausen and Armando Allen.

Miami 35, UCF 7

Miami should get over the hump in this one.  They've played good the last couple of weeks, but haven't been able to come out on top.  They fell way behind to Florida State, but made a strong comeback, and prior to that loss they fell to UNC on a touchdown drive in the final minute.  Robert Marve and this young Miami defense should be too much for UCF to handle.

Clemson-Wake Forest Has ACC Championship Implications

Oct 7, 2008

Clemson (3-2, 1-1) at Wake Forest (3-1, 1-0)
Thursday 7:35 PM
Line: WF -2

It has been a bumpy season thus far for the ACC preseason favorite Clemson Tigers, going 3-2 despite being favored in all five contests. Wake Forest is coming off a bye week after a home loss to Navy, 24-17, in a game they were favored by 17. Many thought before this season that this game could go a long way toward deciding the Atlantic Division champion.

Wake Forest Offense vs. Clemson Defense

In a reversal of the past few seasons, Wake is getting it done on offense through the air and is struggling on the ground. Quarterback Riley Skinner is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and averaging 244 passing yards per game. Running back Josh Adams has not had the kind of season head coach Jim Grobe would like, as the Deacons have been stymied on the ground at just 85 yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry.

Clemson's defense is doing a better job stopping the pass than they are the run. The Tigers are giving up 115 yards per game on the ground and 3.4 yards per carry. The middle of this defense is missing its big defensive tackle, Rashaad Jackson, who is out for a few more games, and suffering from a lack of experience at linebacker. The pass defense has been solid, allowing just 200 yards per game.

Clemson Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense

Tiger quarterback Cullen Harper has been one of the biggest disappointments in the ACC this season. The senior has just three touchdown passes to five interceptions and has not exhibited the ability to pass downfield. Clemson's vaunted running duo of James Davis and CJ Spiller has performed well when they have been given holes to run through by their young offensive line. However, with all the talent we thought Clemson has had, they seem to bog down at key times in games and play down to the level of their competition.

Defensively, Wake Forest has done an outstanding job of defending the pass, allowing just 145 yards per game. There is some caution to this figure, considering one-quarter of the Deacons' schedule is against the run-dominant Naval Academy. However, that game against the Mids did not help the Deacs rush defense, which is allowing 149 yards per contest. Wake has been making a killing off opponent turnovers thus far, averaging plus-2 per game.

News and Notes...

This is Clemson's first true road game of the year, having played Alabama on a neutral field. The Tigers are 0-3 against the spread in 2008 and have played two FCS opponents. Clemson is also 0-3 on the over/under as well this season. Both times Wake has not covered the spread, they have been outgained in total yards.

Prediction

The two-point favorite line for Wake tells me Vegas thinks this is nearly an even match on a neutral field, which is surprising considering how underachieving Clemson has been.

Wake's Riley Skinner will not play as poorly as he did against Navy last time out. But under Tommy Bowden, Clemson has a way of rising up after disappointments in a big way (and falling when the stakes are high).

If this game were in November and for the division title, I would be Wake all the way. But I will take Clemson in the upset, with Cullen Harper having a breakout game.

Clemson 24, Wake Forest 20
Clemson Covers +2



Last Week: 5-0 ATS, 4-1 SU
Season: 18-5-1 ATS, 16-8 SU

A Coach's Dilemma: “Cupcakes” or Tough Competition?

Sep 21, 2008

It is a tough call: Do you play tough BCS/FBS competition, or do you schedule a “cupcake” team from the FCS (formerly I-AA) to start your season?  This is a serious question that one has to grapple with, especially if the team is in rebuilding mode.

When a team is in a tough conference like the SEC, ACC, or Big 12 where wins are hard to come by, one is tempted to play subpar competition to give one more wins before hitting the conference schedule.  Scheduling one of the lower division teams doesn’t always assure a win, either—just ask Michigan from the 2007 season! 

If a school chooses this path, does it benefit them?  “A win is a win,” some will say, but if one really wants to contend for a conference championship or even a national championship, or just make their team a tougher and more “battle tested” team, does playing the cupcake team help to get you there?

I think if the FSU vs. Wake Forest game is any indicator of the answer, I would have to say, “No, it doesn’t help a good team get better.” 

I will admit this was a very, very ugly game on Saturday night in Tallahassee.  I think FSU is a good team, but playing and romping on the cupcakes really did not seem to prepare them for the rigors of the ACC season to come.

It didn’t seem to help them on the path to win Championships, and now they are feeling defeated, unsure of themselves and their capabilities.

After their two romps over subpar talent (when compared to FSU)—one being 69-0 against WCU—FSU was exuding a cocky confidence, thinking they “were back” to the FSU of old!  The media fell for it by ranking them No. 24 in the nation.

I do think that FSU is a very good team, but how much better would they have been if they played a decent or even strong team out of the gates?  Personally, if I was a voting member of the media, I would have held out until they played some decent competition before making them No. 24. 

I honestly can say I don't blame Coach Bowden this year after losing as many as 11 starters. Why not play it safe? By the way, he is competing with Joe Pa for the most wins ever by an active coach.

BUT if he had played better competition, those same freshmen who started would have some incredible experience that could benefit them for their future careers and ultimately make their team stronger and tougher this year and years to come. 

What do you gain when you thrash a Western Carolina 69-0?  Well, you bulk up your stats to lead the country in some areas, but the subpar competition gave them a false sense of security.  They did get experience, but that experience was the wrong kind of experience.

After these wins, they must have thought that winning would be easy, and they began to think they were better than they really were! 

FSU is not alone.  Apparently many of the ACC teams did the same.

BC played Kent State.  MD picked on Delaware and almost lost, and then did lose to Middle Tenn.  UNC took on McNeese St. and almost got beaten too.  GT hit Jacksonville St. and then later in the season Gardner-Webb.  VT took on Furman and later Western KY.

Clemson was brave to schedule Alabama first, but then added SC State to "make a statement" (54-0!).  UVA scheduled Richmond, a FCS finalist contender last season, but they have to be given props for the courage to take on No. 1 USC!

Jim Grobe is to be admired because Wake, on the other hand, stayed with the FBS/BCS teams all season and last.  Baylor is turning out to be a good team, and Ole Miss is no slouch either!

Last season, WFU opened up with BC and then Nebraska and started with an 0-2 record. Many people talked about how bad they were and how the prior year’s ACC Championship was a fluke, but Grobe kept plugging and they pulled it together because they had also been tested early.  It ultimately helped them to get to 9-4 and win their bowl game.

This year's biggest test should be Clemson, and by the time they get Clemson they will already be tested and ready (Baylor, Ole Miss, FSU, and Navy). 

FSU: Live and learn...after your Southern Conference “cupcake” romps and the Wake Forest “Smack Down,” you have a tough Colorado team heading your way!  CO will be a big test, and hopefully you can pull it together to rise to the challenge and make the ACC proud.

My point is that if you schedule tougher competition and let the "chips fall where they may," it just might help you to have a special season. It may give you some losses too, but scheduling all the “cupcakes” will ultimately not prepare you for the speed and tough competition of the major conferences.

Hey, Wake Forest Football Fans: You Have a Team!

Sep 8, 2008

As many saw, last week I made a claim, one that I questioned and thought I might regret. 

I wrote: UPSET ALERT: Three Reasons Why Ole Miss Will Beat Wake Forest

After watching the Ole Miss-Wake Forest game on Saturday, I still don't regret making the prediction that Ole Miss would upset the Deacons, even though I was wrong.

I was wrong by eight seconds, when Sam Swank, the most proficient kicker in the NCAA, kicked Wake Forest to a 30-28 victory and Jevan Snead's last-minute heroics came up just short.

For those saying that it was just an average ACC team beating a lower-tier SEC team, we didn't watch the same game.

Ole Miss and Wake Forest made some mistakes, but both looked very sharp. I really think Wake Forest will go on to win the ACC and a BCS Bowl. Nothing was supposed to go against Wake Forest in my article, although some Deacons fans thought I was sending jabs their way by saying Ole Miss has a chance to score 38 points on them. 

I think after the game, Wake Forest fans realize I was just optimistic about the Ole Miss offense, and rightfully so.

The defense for Ole Miss definitely has some tuning up to do, but you have to give the Wake Forest offense credit. The Ole Miss defense went up against one of the best spread offenses in the country.

The Deacons have a great quarterback who is very experienced, solid receivers, and a great sophomore rusher in Josh Adams. Giving up 30 points isn't good, but it is definitely justified by the team they played.

The offense for Ole Miss showed every part of what I had been saying since the preseason. It had its glimpses of greatness, but also had its glimpses of setback. 

The Wild Rebel was rolling throughout the game early, but in the early second half, when Dexter McCluster tried to force the ball throwing it downfield, it was picked off. The coaching staff backed off the Wild Rebel much after that. 

About Snead's only mistake was also in the second half, when he tried to lay the ball out to speedy Mike Wallace and it was picked by Kevin Patterson. Snead ended the day with 253 yards, four touchdowns and one interception by completing 20-of-31 passes. 

One thing I will say about Wake Forest is that its players, coaches, and fans seem to be all first class. I've heard about Jim Grobe's system of winning and I truly believe he is one of the best coaches in the NCAA. He truly doesn't believe in the "star ratings" and takes kids with character and discipline and makes them redshirt for experience, which leads to a veteran team, year in and year out.

I can truly say good luck to Wake Forest for the rest of the season.