Wake Forest Football

Ole Miss @ Wake Forest
Line: WF -8
Over/Under: 46.5

The Ole Miss Rebels travel to Winston-Salem to take on one of the best teams in the ACC. Both Wake Forest and Ole Miss had impressive wins against FBS opponents in week one. This is a big game for the ACC, as they need one of their better teams to beat a lower half SEC team to save face.

Keys to the Game:

Capitalizing On Opportunities

Wake Forest forced five turnovers last week from Baylor en route to 41 points on the scoreboard. The Deacs had a 126 yard difference over the Bears, but it is not unusual for Wake to be even or under in total yardage (-19 ypg in 07). They win games by taking advantage of your mistakes and not making ones of their own.

Ole Miss was out gained by Memphis last week, yet still won by 14. The team that can get short fields and turnovers will have give their defense a big break.

One-Dimensional Offense

Both of these teams showed in Week 1 how balanced they are. Wake had 20 first downs against Baylor, nine on the ground and 11 through the air. Ole Miss had 216 yards rushing and 222 passing. Obviously, if one team gets up big then you can expect the other to start throwing more. The defense that can effectively take away on offensive option will have a big advantage.

Prediction:

Wake’s talent is not of Ole Miss’ caliber if you follow the recruiting rankings, but they have a way of maximizing talent. Wake does not blow out teams usually and I do not think they will here against an improved Ole Miss team. The Deacons do it there way by capitalizing on Rebel turnovers and field possession.

Wake Forest-30

Ole Miss-21

Wake Forest Covers, Over

Other Week 2 Predictions

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The first week is over, and the ACC's two top preseason teams were beat. Clemson was simply embarrassed, and Virginia Tech is still stunned.

NC State fared no better getting beat by 34 on Thursday night. Virginia was taken down by a powerful Southern Cal team. Even UNC and Maryland struggled against teams they should have beaten easily. 

Miami plays Florida this week, but it may be too much to ask of the Canes for a win at this point in their program.

Thus, the eye of the conference will be in Winston-Salem on Saturday, hoping Wake Forest can win. If not, the pundits who say the conference is down are not correct. A better description would be abysmal.

Ole Miss has not won more than four games in any season since 2003. But this year could be different. The Rebels finally have a good coach in Houston Nutt.

There was never a lack of talent for the Mississippi school. Tyrone Nix, the defense coordinator, has nine starters to work with. The Rebels will see a misdirection offense that will take some getting used to. I expect Ole Miss to have some initial trouble with it and then adjust. It is one thing to simulate it in practice, but it's totally different in a game.

I look for Ole Miss to show both run and pass blitz packages against the Wake offensive line. Wake lost four starters last year and, while the replacements have experience, this is still just the second game of the season. If the offensive line for the Deacons does well, this game will get ugly for the Rebels.

Wake Forest returns nine starters from its defensvie squad last year. This is a very solid group, and the Rebels will see a strong defense, including a great secondary. If the Rebels are to have any success, they are going to have to run the ball. If not, Wake Forest will win huge.

Prediction: Wake Forest 27, Ole Miss 16

The ACC had a rough opening weekend.  Wait, that's an understatement: The ACC had a HORRIBLE opening weekend.

Expected conference champ Clemson got blitzed by Alabama, Virginia Tech lost to East Carolina, and Virginia was just a speed bump for USC.   ACC teams either looked bad or played subpar teams, so we cannot gather much from their wins.

Let's get to the rankings.

1. Wake Forest

The Deacs went to Baylor and took care of business—almost like we have come to expect from Jim Grobe's teams.

2. Clemson

The Tigers got dominated on the lines by Alabama, and that led to domination on the scoreboard.  Clemson just got their head-scratch loss of the season out of the way...I think.

3. Virginia Tech

Despite the loss to East Carolina, I still think the Hokies will compete for the Coastal Division title.

4. Miami

The Canes were as impressive as you could expect playing a team like Charleston Southern.

5. Boston College

The Eagles defense was dominant in a shutout of Kent State.

6. Georgia Tech

The Jackets racked up nearly 500 yards of total offense and averaged over 7 YPC.  Not a bad debut for Paul Johnson.

7. Florida State

The Seminoles didn't play.  That wasn't a bad thing this weekend.

8. North Carolina

The Tar Heels struggled a little bit against FCS McNeese State.

9. Maryland

The Terrapins took care of business, but it was not overly impressive against FCS Delaware.

10. Duke

It's a new era for the Blue Devils in their domination of a good FCS program in James Madison.

11. Virginia

Was it just me, or did UVA look like boys playing against men vs. USC?

12. NC State

It was a tough night for the Pack as they lost their starting QB and got blanked by South Carolina.

Big Games This Weekend

Ga Tech @ Boston College, Miami @ Florida, Wake Forest vs. Ole Miss

There comes a time in a journalist's writing career (or should I say hobby) where he or she goes out on a limb and makes a prediction he questions.

For me, that time is now.

However, I truly believe if there is a big upset this weekend, Ole Miss has as good a chance to knock off Wake Forest as any other team this weekend.

Don't get me wrong.  I believe Wake Forest has a great team, but I believe that Ole Miss has been slightly underrated by many people because of their results last year.

Here are three reasons Ole Miss has a good shot of upsetting Wake Forest.

1) Rain favors the running game

People said when back-to-back 1,000 yard rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis graduated that the running game would suffer.  They failed to realize Houston Nutt pulled in a top five RB class in the class of 2008, according to Rivals.com.  Brandon Bolden, Enrique Davis, and Devin Thomas all saw the field Saturday.

As Hurricane Hanna makes its way to the Carolina shore, the chances of the game being wet become more and more likely. 

Ole Miss rushed for 216 yards last week against Memphis last week.  Although it's CUSA Memphis, the score has always been close with the Tigers, even when Ole Miss had good success.  This year, however, the game was out of reach after the first quarter. 

Ole Miss also used the Wild Rebel to success (the formation Darren McFadden used at Arkansas) as Dexter McCluster rushed for a 32-yard TD and Brandon Bolden pulled a trick play and threw a 37-yard pass to QB Jevan Snead out wide.

2) The stadium will not be a factor

Ole Miss will be traveling to Gainesville, Baton Rouge, Fayetteville, and Tuscaloosa this year.  What do all those have in common that differs from Winston-Salem?  A big-time college atmosphere. 

Most of the kids on this team are used to going to hostile environments and playing in front of crowds over 80,000. 

Even last week, Ole Miss debuted at home in Vaught Hemingway Stadium (which is around middle tier as far as seating goes in the SEC) and packed over 56,000 seats. 

BB&T Field at Groves Stadium holds a little more than half of that at 31,500.

3) Jevan Snead doesn't make mistakes

When you look at his stats from Saturday, nothing wows you.

That's okay for Ole Miss fans though.

Ole Miss fans expect a lot out of Jevan Snead, but they also understand that this was his second career start (one being at Texas).  He has a gunslinger arm and was 10 of 22 last week for 185 yards, two TDs, and zero INTs. 

Being an eyewitness at the game, the majority of the passes Snead didn't complete were long balls that were a little overthrown.  Ole Miss fans are okay with that too, because it seemed every QB since Eli tried to put the ball right on the money and ended up underthrowing it for a pick.

OVERALL

If Ole Miss' defense can hold Riley Skinner with their spread, I believe Ole Miss can and will shock everyone and beat Wake Forest Saturday afternoon.  They have an abundance of talent brought in by a great recruiter, coach Ed Orgeron, that a great gameday coach, Houston Nutt, has inherited.

Nobody thought the Wild Rebel would have success against anyone at Ole Miss.  However, Dexter McCluster runs it to perfection in a different style from what McFadden did at Arkansas. 

Ole Miss fans have been talking about this game since the end of last season as the "great indicator" on how much success they will have this year.  The fans, players, and coaching staff know how much this win would go as far as team confidence, recruiting, and chances at something they haven't accomplished since 2003—a bowl game.

Predicted Score: Ole Miss 38, Wake Forest 34

Bowl games are very important to the teams that play in them. Many teams are in bowl games year after year, but don't play up to expectations. Some teams, on the other hand, don't make it to the postseason every year, but know how to win when they do.

These programs know how to play in the clutch. You can bet on these teams to kick it up a notch and win a bowl game this year, that is if they make it there. They are listed from the least to the greatest difference in postseason winning percentage and all-time winning percentage, since 1945.

10. Troy Trojans

The Troy Trojans have played 25 games in the postseason, winning 15 of them for a .600 winning percentage. Their all-time winning percentage is .572.

Difference: .028

9. Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss has a 19-11 record in bowl games, a winning percentage of .633. Its all-time percentage is .593.

Difference: .040

8. Central Michigan Chippewas

The Chippewas have played in nine games, winning six of them to result in a .667 winning percentage. Their all-time percentage is .592.

Difference: .075

7. Toledo Rockets

The Toledo Rockets have an impressive postseason record of 13-6, which equals a .684 winning percentage, compared to their all-time percentage of .562.

Difference: .122

6. Boston College Eagles

Boston College has a very high postseason winning percentage of .706 with a record of 12-5. The Eagles' all-time winning percentage is merely .569.

Difference: .137

5. Utah Utes

The Utes of Utah have won nine games in 13 tries with a percentage of .692. This is quite above their .542 all-time percentage.

Difference: .150

4. Memphis Tigers

The Memphis Tigers have only played in six games but have won four of them, meaning a .667 winning percentage compared to only a .508 all-time percentage.

Difference: .159

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys have fared well in the postseason with an 11-6 record or .647 winning percentage. Their all-time percentage is below .500 at .484.

Difference: .163

2. Oregon State Beavers

Oregon State has a .636 winning percentage by posting a 7-4 record. Its all-time percentage, however, is much below .500 at .422.

Difference: .214

1. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The Demon Deacons of Wake Forest have played in nine postseason games and won six of them. This results in a .667 winning percentage. Their all-time winning percentage is a very low .392.

Difference: .275

Wake Forest is a BCS contender this year. If the Deacons make it there, they have a good chance of winning the bowl game. Although a long shot, they could make an appearance in the national championship.

Wherever the Demon Deacons end up this season, you can bet on them winning. They may not make postseason appearances every year, but they make the most of it. They are a team that wins in the clutch.

I would like to thank michigan-football.com for providing the statistics used in this article.

Despite bowl struggles, the ACC will still have a competitive race to reach the Orange Bowl. With Florida State and Miami facing down years, the ACC has its most wide-open race in years. Can Clemson finally live up to its hype? With its talent and ability to win big games, Clemson should win the ACC and have an undefeated season. However, Tommy Bowden and his Tigers have struggled against teams they are favored to win, so they will be victim to a few upsets over the course of the season.

Winner: Wake Forest defeats Virginia Tech

Quietly Jim Grobe has turned around Wake Forest from Duke-like futility to a perennial ACC title contender. Wake returns nine starters on defense, along with leading rusher Josh Adams. Junior quarterback Riley Skinner, who started Wake's run as a freshman, also returns to a team that went 9-4 last season. The Demon Deacons should improve this season to win their second ACC title in three seasons.

Surprise: Boston College

With the loss of Matt Ryan, Boston College has been under the radar this season. The Eagles return the ACC's second-best defense along with senior linebacker Brian Toal. The success of the new starting quarterback Chris Crane and BC's tailbacks will determine whether the Eagles can make a run in the ACC.

Disappointment: Florida State and Miami

Part of the reason the ACC has a reputation as a weak conference is because of the downfall of its historically strongest programs in the ACC—Florida State and Miami. Neither team has any proven talent at quarterback and will severely struggle on offense.

Miami loses eight starters off a team that already had the ACC's worst passing offense. Due to suspensions, Florida State loses six starters for half the season to add to Bobby Bowden's problems. Overall, the ACC's teams in the state of Florida will struggle this season. This will be the first year since 1978 that both the Seminoles and the Hurricanes will miss bowl games.

Key Matchups

Clemson vs. Wake Forest—This game will determine the Atlantic Division title and a spot in the conference championship game.

Virginia Tech vs. Virginia—The Coastal division title is on the line in this intrastate rivalry. Can Virginia's spotty front four stop Va. Techs running game?

Clemson vs. Boston College—This game is a litmus test to see if Clemson can become a BCS bowl-caliber team. Also, an upset over Clemson can carry Boston College on ACC title run.

Projected ACC standings

Atlantic Division

1) Wake Forest 10-2 (6-2) Orange Bowl

2) Clemson 10-2 (6-2)

3) Boston College 8-4 (4-4)

4) Maryland 8-4 (4-4)

5) Florida State 5-7 (3-5)

6) NC State 4-8 (2-6)

Coastal Division

1) Virginia Tech 10-2 (7-1)

2) Virginia 9-3 (6-2)

3) UNC 6-6 (4-4)

4) Georgia Tech 5-7 (3-5)

5) Miami 4-8 (2-6)

6) Duke 2-10 (0-8)

www.commonsensemag.com

ACC Atlantic No. 2: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

2007 Results and Offseason

Wake enjoyed their second straight bowl and a nine-win season in '07.  The Deacons beat FSU for a second straight season and just missed out on a second straight ACC championship game appearance.  Wake Forest didn't bring in a great recruiting class, but Jim Grobe has proven over the years what he can do with marginal talent.

2007 Record: 9-4 (5-3)

Ret. Starters: 14

Ret. Lettermen: 44

Off PPG: 28.1 (3rd), RYPG: 121.5 (8th), PYPG: 218.4 (7th)

Def PPG: 26.0 (9th), RYPG: 94.6 (3rd), PYPG: 263.8 (11th)

Offense (Five Ret. Starters, 18 Ret. Lettermen)

Riley Skinner is back for his junior season and should garner All-ACC consideration again.  Skinner led the NCAA in completion percentage at 72.4 percent a year ago.  Brett Hodges is the backup and was barely beaten out by Skinner two years ago.

Also back is the leading rusher from a year ago, Josh Adams.  Adams had 11 TDs and was the home run threat, while the departed Micah Andrews was the grinder.

The Deacs lose their top two receivers, including Kenny Moore, who played just about every skill position in his time in Winston-Salem.  The leading returner is Chip Brinkman.

The O-line loses three starters from a year ago, and the loss of C Steve Justice will especially hurt.  O-line cohesion plays a big role in Grobe's misdirection offense.

Defense (Nine Ret. Starters, 24 Ret. Lettermen)

Wake has switched to a 4-3 defense after gaining depth along the line over the last few seasons.  Two starters must be replaced.  NT Boo Robinson returns from an injury in '07.

The LB unit is led by Aaron Curry, who led the team in tackles for loss with 10.5.  Curry was also the second-leading tackler and returns with fellow seniors Chantz McClinic and Stanley Arnoux.

The secondary returns second team All-American Alphonso Smith at one corner and leading tackler SS Chip Vaughn.  The other corner, Brandon Ghee, led the team with 10 pass breakups in '07.

The defense returns the top five tacklers and nine of the top 10 from a year ago.

Special Teams

Sam Swank could be All-ACC at punter and kicker this season.  The senior was 18 for 21 a year ago in PK.  The Deacs will have to find a new punt returner with the graduation of Moore.  Smith will likely return kicks.

Newcomers of Note

Wake never has top-rated recruiting classes, but they have still outpaced most of their ACC opponents in wins over the years.

Schedule

Wake opens the year at Baylor followed by home vs. Ole Miss.  Additionally, they face vNavy and vVandy in the non-conference.  From the Coastal they draw @Miami, vDuke, and vUVA.  After an Oct. 4 bye, Wake plays eight straight.  The Deacs' game at Maryland could mean the difference between a second or fourth place finish.

Final Thoughts

Offensively, Wake has to replace a lot, but a returning starter at QB can get them by early.  The defense should be much improved over a year ago with nine returners.  If you look at Wake's stats, they should be a nine-win team, but they do great in the turnover battle and maximize opportunities.  If I am preparing for one game in the ACC, I want Grobe on my side.

Prediction

Likely Wins: @Baylor, vDuke, vUVA

Likely Loss: None

9-3 (5-3)

Next Up: ACC Coastal No. 1

Clemson Tigers  12-1 (8-1 ACC)
ACC Champions
Atlantic Division Champions

Wins:

Alabama, Citadel, North Carolina State, South Carolina State, Maryland, at Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, at Boston College, Duke, at Virginia, South Carolina, Virginia Tech (ACC Championship)

Loss:

at Florida State

Outlook:

Clemson comes into the season as a National Title contender.  They are notorious for falling short.  This year will be no different.  Somewhere along the way the Tigers will stumble, most likely at Florida State.  The Seminoles should be full strength by then with all of there suspended players returning, ready to defend their home field.

There is no question that Clemson has returning talent and a recruiting class to make them a contender.  Although they only lost four starters on offense, they were all on the offensive line.  This is the only question mark on an offense that returns QB Cullen Harper, WR Aaron Kelly, and RB's James Davis and C.J. Spiller.

The defense only lost three starters that left a big hole at the LB position.  The rest of the defense will be tough as DE Ricky Sapp, CB Chris Chancellor, and S Michael Hamlin return.  Top recruit DaQuan Bowers will contribute right away at DE.

Clemson will fall short of their goal to reach the BCS National Championship game, but will be rewarded for winning the ACC with a trip to the Orange Bowl.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons  10-2 (6-2)

Wins:

at Baylor, Mississippi, at Florida State, Navy, at Maryland, Duke, Virginia, at North Carolina State, Boston College, Vanderbilt

Losses:

Clemson, at Miami (FL)

Outlook:

Wake Forest will once again be a factor in the ACC.  The Demon Deacons will win one more game than last year with their only two losses to Clemson and Miami (FL).  They will benefit by playing Florida State early in the season when the Seminoles will be missing a major chunk of talent due to suspensions.

Wake Forest return only five starters on offense led by QB Riley Skinner and RB Josh Adams.  They lost WR Kenneth Moore and C Steve Justice.  They also lost both of their TE's.  The Deacons will need players to step up and fill these holes.

The defense will be strong as all but two starters return.  The DE position needs filled with the departure of Jeremy Thompson.  Aaron Curry returns to lead the LB's.  The secondary will be very tough, especially with CB Alphonso Smith returning.

Wake Forest will have a good year.  They will fall just short of the ACC Championship game and a BCS berth.

Florida State Seminoles  8-4 (5-3)

Wins:

Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Colorado, at North Carolina State, at Georgia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, at Maryland

Losses:

Wake Forest, at Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Florida

Outlook:

Florida State begins the season very short-handed.  Six starters are suspended for the first six games.  With this in mind, the Seminoles will perform better than expected.  They benefit by playing four of those games at home.  However, one of them is against Wake Forest.  Despite the suspensions, they should be able to hold off Colorado at home and beat an inferior North Carolina State team on the road.  The players will return and lose to a better Virginia Tech team, but should be able to rebound two weeks later and upset Clemson at home.

The Seminoles return seven starters on each side of the ball, but not all of them will see action until at least week seven.  On offense, they return QB Drew Weatherford, WR Greg Carr, C Ryan McMahon, and RB Antone Smith.  Junior College transfers RB Tavares Pressley and WR Corey Surrency will look to contribute.  They do lose WR De'Cody Fagg and Preston Parker has a pending suspension.  A major concern is the offensive line as all starters will be either freshmen or sophomores.

The defense lost LB Geno Hayes and DT's Andre Fluellen and Letroy Guion.  Junior College transfer DE Markus White will contribute and the LB position is deep.  Florida State needs to replace PK Gary Cismesia to boost special teams.

Boston College Eagles  7-5 (3-5)

Wins:

at Kent State, Georgia Tech, UCF, Rhode Island, at North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Maryland

Losses:

Virginia Tech, at North Carolina, Clemson, at Florida State, at Wake Forest

Outlook:

Boston College will start out the season strong with an easy non-conference schedule.  They will fall well short of last year's 11-3 season though.  They should start the season 5-0 but could lose five of their last seven.  Three of them will be on the road against better teams.

The eagles only return six on offense.  Among them are TE Ryan Purvis, OT Anthony Castonzo, and WR's Rich Gunnell and Brandon Robinson.  They lost key players that led to their success last season.  QB Matt Ryan, WR Kevin Challenger, OT Gosder Cherilus, and RB's Andre Callender and L.V. Whitworth.  A brand new backfield will lead an offense that will be far less successful than last year.

The defense also lost talent leaving some holes to fill.  The secondary lost CB DeJuan Tribble and FS Jamie Silva.  The LB position will be a strong point even though Jo-Lonn Dunbar and Tyronne Pruitt are gone.  Brian Toal and Mark Herzlich return.  Boston College will have to replace both DE's as well including Nick Larkin.  They need to replace P Johnny Ayers also.

Maryland Terrapins  6-6 (2-6)

Wins:

Delaware, at Middle Tennessee, California, Eastern Michigan, at Virginia, North Carolina State

Losses:

at Clemson, Wake Forest, at Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State, at Boston College

Outlook:

Maryland will come out strong in non-conference play and beat California at home.  They will start to stumble at Clemson and could lose six of their last eight games as the schedule gets tough.  Clemson and Virginia Tech, their two hardest opponents, are both on the road.

The Terrapins could have a very good offense as all but two starters return.  They lost OG Andrew Crummey and their two best RB's in Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore.  A new RB will have to step in and flourish behind the rest of the offense.  Key returners are QB Chris Turner, FB Cory Jackson, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, C Edwin Williams, and LT Scott Burley.  Besides at RB, WR's need to step up this season.

The defense is the reason why Marlyand will only have a .500 season.  Only five starters return.  LB Erin Henderson, SS Christian Varner, and DT's Dre Moore and Carlos Feliciano are gone.  Despite these loses, the secondary and LB position should be strong.  These positions are led by CB Kevin Barnes and LB's Moise Fokou and Dave Philistin.  The defensive line will be a major question entering the season.

North Carolina State Wolfpack  3-9 (1-7)

Wins:

William & Mary, East Carolina, at Duke

Losses:

at South Carolina, at Clemson, South Florida, Boston College, Florida State, at Maryland, Wake Forest, at North Carolina, Miami (FL)

Outlook:

The outlook is not good for North Carolina State.  They may only manage one conference win, against the worst team in the Coastal Division in Duke.  A tough non-conference schedule doesn't help.  They have to play at South Carolina and a good South Florida team.  If players don't stay healthy this season, it is going to be very ugly.

The Wolfpack only return six on offense including TE Anthony Hill and RB's Andre Brown and Jamelle Eugene.  The offensive line is poised to be good this season, but without a sure QB behind them.  Perhaps Mike Glennon, younger brother of Virginia Tech QB Sean Glennon, can step in.  Players not returning are FB Pat Bedics, TE Marcus Stone, and WR's John Dunlap and Darrell Blackman.

The defense returns a decent amount of starters at seven.  CB Jeremy Gray, DE Willie Young, and DT Alan-Michael Cash will lead.  There are some questions as DT DeMario Pressley, SS DaJuan Morgan, and LB's Ernest Jones and James Martin are gone.

Tom O'Brien will not improve in his second season as head coach after last year's 5-7 record.  The schedule is too strong as most of the opponents will be more talented, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

ACC Coastal Division coming soon.

In addition to having a top QB, it is also necessary to have a quality coach on your sidelines as well if you want to win championships.

A while back, I ranked all of the coaches at the request of an ongoing coaching poll using the requestor's weighted average of: recruiting, player development, gameday coaching, program control (ACC Results).

Here is my ranking of coaches (with two years experience) based on my criteria in no particular order.

Ranking criteria:

• Overall record (vs. ACC and non-conference)
• What you have done over the last three seasons (what have you done for me lately?)
  
• What do you have to work with (are you State U with 40,000 students and a traditional power, or a small private school who prefers basketball?)
• How well can you recruit (can you get the cream of the crop on campus?)
• Where your recruiting rankings are vs. on-the-field results (are you taking no names to championships?)

Caveats:

• To be ranked a coach, must be a head coach at least two seasons in the conference
• Randy Shannon, Paul Johnson, David Cutcliffe, and Jeff Jagodzinski are not ranked because of this—just not enough on the ACC resume to get a true ranking

1. Jim Grobe (Wake Forest)
Grobe is tops on my list for several reasons. He led Wake Forest to an ACC title just two years ago with a freshman QB and third string tailback converted from WR.

Grobe has elevated Wake Forest to play with the "big boys of college football," despite being the second smallest Division I-A school.

Despite being ranked near the bottom of the ACC every season in the February recruiting rankings, Wake Forest is likely headed to their third winning season, which would be a first in school history.

2. Frank Beamer (Virginia Tech)
Beamer takes my second spot, and before Hokie fans get riled up, think about the advantages Virginia Tech has over Wake Forest for football: enrollment, differing majors, tradition, recruiting area.

With all that being said, Beamer is certainly no slouch at No. 2 with 2 championship game appearances and one ACC Championship in the last three years.

Beamer consistently brings in top 25 recruiting classes and has them ranked in the top 25 on the field the following fall.

3. Bobby Bowden (Florida State)
Bobby's career is coming to a close at FSU, and while the Seminoles have slipped on the gridiron, you can't ignore his accomplishments over the years at FSU.

Bowden also has an ACC title in the last three years and can still bring in top 10 talent. FSU is in prime recruiting territory and needs to develop more of that talent to get back on top.

4. Butch Davis (North Carolina)
Butch Davis is the first on our rankings to appear having come mostly from another ACC school, Miami. While at Miami, Davis restored the proud Hurricane tradition leading them to within a game of the national title in 2000.

Davis put numerous players in the NFL recruiting from the rich South Florida area. At UNC, Davis will look to improve on his first year, in which the Heels suffered six losses by a TD or less.

5. Tom O'Brien (NC State)
O'Brien had a rough first half of the year but ripped off four in a row before losing to Wake and Maryland down the stretch. The longtime BC head coach started a bowl winning streak in Chesnut Hill that still stands and is the longest active streak in FBS.

Known for his no-nonsense approach, O'Brien has been able to develop marginal talent into bowl teams over the years.

6. Tommy Bowden (Clemson)
Bowden is one of most successful coaches in Clemson history, but the younger Bowden has yet been able to turn that success into an ACC title or even a championship game appearance.

Tommy has certainly raised the recruiting level at Clemson to new heights, but the Clemson faithful are getting frustrated that the talent hasn't lived up to its billing most years.

7. Ralph Friedgen (Maryland)
The Fridge blew the doors off in College Park his first two years, but has slipped into mediocrity in the last several years. Known as an offensive guru, Friedgen has yet to develop a top QB talent like he did at Georgia Tech. Ralph has been able to bring in some talent to Maryland, but largely the Terps are middle of the pack in recruiting and on the field.

8. Al Groh (Virginia)
Groh had his best season in years last year, and some of his most talented players are no longer on the team (some voluntary, some not). Despite all the NFL talent Virginia has put into the NFL the last several years, Virginia has wallowed in mediocrity most of those.

Tomorrow, it's the SEC Coaches Ranking.

Here are the links for parts 1, 2, and 3:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/35120-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-1

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/35642-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-2

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/36513-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-3

Here we go:

16. Wake Forest (Athlon No. 24, Phil Steele No.27, SI No. NR, ESPN No.22)

 

Overall: Do you like Wake Forest? Do you like Jim Grobe and the work he has done building this program? (By the way, Grobe has built and not rebuilt, because you have to have previous glory to rebuild)

Of course you like WF and Jim Grobe. You are a college football fan. Wake Forest was mostly a perennial doormat from 1888 to 2006. Then, all of a sudden, the Demon Deacons were in the Orange Bowl. Despite many detractors, Wake managed a perfectly respectable 9-4 last year, including a win over UConn in the Meineke Bowl. Do they have a chance to improve on that record in 2008? Certainly.

Wake Forest returns 6 starters on offense. While the offensive line returns three starters, none of those players started more than 8 games last year and some experts challenge the overall quality of the unit. QB Riley Skinner and RB Josh Adams are easily the two best players on a relatively weak looking offense. Adams has good speed and might be worked in with redshirt freshman Brandon Pendergrass. Skinner is going to be the difference maker this year for this offense. He has decent numbers, including the best completion percentage in the NCAA (72.4 completion percentage, 2,204 yards passing, 12 TDs and 13 INTs). This is a good offense and the staff is fantastic at developing talent. Developing quality wide receivers from good talent and little game experience is another test for offensive coordinator Steed Lobotzke. Chip Brinkman is the only returning wide receiver. Overall this is not an offense that would rival many other teams I have written about previously, but should do well in a relatively weak ACC.

Defense is the key for the boys in Winston-Salem this year. The defense returns 9 starters this year (losses at DT and DE). Last year’s defense was ranked 27 in total defense. Improvement here could really cause a stir in the ACC. While the defensive backs struggled against the pass earlier in the year, then Brandon Ghee started at corner and the pass numbers became much better. The turnover margin of plus 9 (18^th best in the NCAA) speaks for itself.

 

Opponents: While credit is due for scheduling 3 out of conference games in BCS conferences, I do not think any reasonable college football fan believes Wake Forest’s schedule to be anything but a cakewalk. Here are the out of conference games: at Baylor, Ole Miss, Navy and Vandy. Here is the stat about these four teams that speaks for itself – the last major bowl between all of them was Alabama’s 1981 thumping of Baylor 30-2. (Yes, Ole Miss went to the Cotton Bowl in 2004, but the bowl has not been prestigious since the SWC collapsed).

Expect victories until Wake’s October 9 date with Clemson. While this will be a great Thursday game, Clemson should take Wake Forest and pound them. Wake’s other loss will come on October 25 at Miami. While Wake has lost to the Hurricanes the last four times, this Miami win will be an upset.  A weak ACC should give this team 10 victories, but scorn at the polls because of their loathsome conference affiliation.

 

Prediction: 10-2

17. Arizona State (Athlon No. 15, Phil Steele No.29, SI No.16, ESPN No.15)

 

Overall: Offensively, the Sun Devils return 6 very talented starters. QB Rudy Carpenter has more starts than any other QB in Division IA (FBS). The numbers he put up last year were equally as provocative - 3202 passing yards, 63 completion percentage, 25 TDs and 10 INTs. In the rest of the backfield, RB Keegan Herring averaged 5.3 yards per gain over 815 yards and RBs Ryan Bass and Dimitri Nance look promising. Chris McGaha and Michael Jones head up one of the better receiving corps in the country.

This is not a BCS-bound offense because of the offensive line. The Sun Devils lose three starters from a line that gave up 55 sacks. Another year like last year and that impressive backfield could have injuries become an impressive sideline.

Defensively, the Sun Devils return 7 starters and fewer glaring weaknesses. DEs Luis Vasquez and Dexter Davis had a combined total of 15 sacks and 25 tackles for a loss. Safety Troy Nolan anchors the defensive secondary. He had 6 INTs last year. Dennis Erickson also signed two JUCO players to bolster his defense against the pass. The linebackers might prove to be the weak link on this year’s team. Overall, this is probably the second or third best defense in the Pac-10.

Opponents: Why not Arizona State? Because of Georgia and USC. Arizona State does not have the talent to hang with the big boys yet. While that may not be true two or three years from now, Dennis Erickson should be dampening any BCS hopes before his fan base begins to expect the (nearly) impossible. I remember last year, and yes, anything can happen. However, I think title-bound Georgia will trounce the Sun Devils in Tempe on September 20 and USC will take their ninth straight win in Los Angeles on October 11. You would have to be a fan to expect a different outcome. On the other hand, I think the Sun Devils lost too much to run the table in the rest of the Pac-10. I think their other loss will come at Arizona where Mike Stoops is furiously trying to save his job. Or it may also be Oregon.

Prediction: 9-3

 

 

18. Oregon (Athlon No. 19, Phil Steele No.22, SI No.20 ESPN No.21)

 

Overall: Oregon was the shining example last year of how much of a difference one player can make. Dennis Dixon might have a Heisman (and Oregon might have a crystal football) had his knee not been injured against Arizona State and torn apart against Arizona. I hated seeing Dixon go down and apparently, I was not the only one. The Oregon Ducks were winless from November 3 to December 31. That three loss skid culminated in an embarrassing overtime loss to Oregon State at Autzen Stadium. This year should have lower expectations than last year, but it should be a 9 win regular season, not like last year’s 8 wins.

Offensively, this year’s squad returns 5 starters. While that may seem like a small number, there is quite a bit of talent on the offensive line, especially in Center Max Unger. LaGarrette Blount, a JUCO transfer, had a great look at spring practices and looks to become the next Jonathan Stewart at tailback. The QB question is a little dicer. While Nate Costa is the Dennis Dixon dual threat type of QB, he did not look as good as Justin Roper. Roper is a more traditional QB and he threw 4 TDs in the Sun Bowl against South Florida. The receiving corps is led by Jaison Williams. Williams does not have any competition on the squad for the number one receiver and looks to be the best set of hand for the Ducks, even though some experts believe he is inconsistent. This is one of those rare offenses that does not look very promising on paper but could end up being the best offense in the Pac-10. I would not put money on it, but all the pieces are there.

Defensively, the Ducks have 7 starters returning and a wealth of talent. Returning in the defensive backfield – CBs Jairus Byrd and Walter Thurmond III and Rover Patrick Chung caused a ton of turnovers last year (like Wake Forest, this team also had a plus 9 turnover margin – 18^th best in the country). JUCO transfers should prevent an injury or two from destroying the defensive line and DEs Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu should prevent teams from running the ball down Oregon’s collective throat. Like Arizona State, some weakness at the linebacker positions could keep this team from becoming an elite defense.

Opponents: What is great about Oregon’s schedule is that this young team will have 5 games to settle into a rhythm before they have to take on a big time opponent. Provided Purdue or Boise State does not upset the Ducks (a loss early will devastate the confidence team), Oregon should be undefeated coming into their game with USC on October 4. This could be the surprise team of the year if all of Mike Bellotti’s units come together. I still think they will lose to USC in Los Angeles. I also think Arizona State is the better team of the two this year and will beat Oregon in Tempe three weeks later. Look to the game at Cal or at Oregon State for the Ducks to trip again. There is always next year.

 

Prediction: 9-3

 

19. Texas (Athlon No. 11, Phil Steele No.15, SI No.13, ESPN No.11)

 

Overall: Texas’ defense was ranked 109^th against the pass last year. 109. Here are a few teams with a similar pass defense numbers last year: Louisiana Tech, Baylor, Syracuse, UTEP, SMU and Rice. Heck, Duke was ranked 82 in pass defense last year and they won one game all season! One starter returns from the secondary. Only 5 starters return on defense at all.

Texas’ run defense, on the other hand, was extraordinary (they were ranked sixth in the country). While 4 of the front 7 return, they could not seem to find a pass rush in the last few years. The entire defense notched just 17 sacks all season last year. Will Muschamp the new defensive coordinator who has had stints with LSU, Miami (Dolphins) and Auburn. While he has an amazing talent with defenses, I think this team is a year away from serious Big 12 title contention.

Colt McCoy leads an offense that returns 7 starters. Colt is a talented QB in a conference with many talented QBs. His numbers speak for themselves - 3,303 yards passing, 65 completion percentage, 22 TDs, 18 INTs, and 678 yards rushing. However, Texas lost its best rusher – Jamaal Charles, its best receiver – Limas Sweed, and its best tight end – Jermichael Finley. The whole offensive line returns. They underachieved last year but experience may change the complexion of this line. Again, this is not the team that will win the Big 12 (or even the Big 12 South) this year.

Opponents: This team should be undefeated until October 4 when they travel to Boulder and face Colorado. While they may beat the Buffs, they are not going to win against Oklahoma the next weekend in Dallas. I also doubt they will beat Missouri in Austin the week after that. While this may be considered calling an upset outside of Austin, Texas Tech should beat Texas in Lubbock on November 1. Will they beat Kansas in Lawrence on November 15? Maybe, maybe not. How about Texas A&M on November 27? Same answer. The Longhorns should lose three, maybe four games in the regular season this year. If pressed, these are the three teams who have the best chance of beating the Longhorns: Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas Tech. Kansas would be the fourth.

 

This is not the year for this young Longhorns team. At least Colt McCoy is only a junior.

 

Prediction: 9-3

 

 

20. USF (Athlon No. 20, Phil Steele No.8, SI No. NR, ESPN No. NR)

 

Overall: What can you expect from the South Florida Bulls this year? If you know, drop me a line. This team was ranked number 2 in the country on October 17 after beating both Auburn and West Virginia. Then came the losses to Rutgers, Connecticut and Cincinnati. After winning its last three games of the season, USF was blown out of the water by Oregon 56-21 at the Sun Bowl.

This team returns 15 starters, 8 on offense, 7 on defense. Matt Grothe is a dual threat QB that reminds many people of the guy a few hours away in Gainesville. Grothe led the team in rushing for the last two seasons. Here are his stats – 2,670 passing yards, 59 completion percentage, 14 TDs, 14 INTs 1138 yards rushing. Four of those TDs came during his meltdown against Cincinnati. The offensive line returns four good starters and Mike Ford should be a breakout sophomore RB. The receiving corps is truly talented, led by Taurus Johnson.

Defensively, DE George Selvie led the unit last year and had 14.5 sacks (just 2.5 sacks short of the entire Texas defense). Linebacker Tyrone McKenzie is certainly fearsome, leading USF in tackles and heading the best linebacking corps in the Big East. While Carlton Williams and Nate Allen are excellent safeties, the Bulls must replace two all-star cornerbacks who remain the only questions on defense. The team as a whole is small and quick. Big, strong teams may be able to manhandle this defense, especially on the ground.

Opponents: This team is the one I feel least sure about so far. While their first two games are cupcakes, the real test is on September 12 against Kansas in Tampa. This is a close one to call, but for the moment I am giving it to the Jayhawks, who look decent this year. Pitt could also prove to be a problem on October 2. I think many people are overlooking the Panthers this year and they should take USF if they are having a bad day. Realistically, USF could have a bad day and lose to Syracuse or have a good day and beat West Virginia in Morgantown on December 6. Who knows? The Bulls are going to be fun to watch precisely because they are such a boom-or-bust team. I think they will lose three – to Kansas, Pitt and West Virginia. Do not bet money on this team, to win or to lose, unless you want an ulcer or two.

 

Prediction: 9-3

Part 5 should be done... hopefully by Tuesday.