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Recruiting Ratings Don't Give Non-BCS Schools Enough Credit

Dec 15, 2008

Recruiting ratings don't matter much, just like preseason polls, but a lot of people pay money to see them and the related information. The ratings also can help to show if a coaching staff is moving in the right direction, but that link is tenuous as we will see from some of the points below. 

In any case citing some strange statistics for or against a certain team is a long-standing tradition in college football arguments.

After conducting an analysis of recruiting ratings and comparing them to each team's pre-bowl game rankings, non-BCS schools (particularly those from the Mountain West and Mid Atlantic Conferences) outperformed other schools. 

Teams may outperform their recruiting rankings because they are better judges of talent, they don't get enough credit for selecting student athletes or they are better at coaching players up among other reasons.

The top 20 overachievers and bottom five under performers are noted below, but the full results can be found at Recruiting Vs. Ranking College Football Team Performance

These results where 11 of 20 teams are not in BCS conferences show that the recruiting rating services seem to put too much emphasis on which schools have "offered" a particular recruit when considering that recruit's talent.  There are several reasons (besides talent) for why a recruit may not get offers from major programs:

  • Some recruits may decide early and not get attention from other programs.
  • Some recruits may stay under the radar, even in this information age.
  • Some recruits may have academic or character issues that make them less likely to get scholarship offers, especially when coaches need to consider the NCAA's academic progress report system.
  • Some programs don't have the prestige they once had. Recruiting services need to consider this when determining a student athlete's "rating."


That said, the recruiting services can't evaluate a couple thousand recruits to the same degree as most schools.  They have to rely on which schools are giving a recruit a scholarship offer because combined the schools have many more times the number of people evaluating the student athletes.

But the recruiting services need to give more credit to programs that are outside the past few year's top 20.

With that out of the way, there are other possible reasons why some programs overachieved:

  • The team might have had one particularly good recruiting class that is relied on more than the others, but counts the same as for other years.  (In the methodology, a junior class counts more than a sophomore or freshman class, but each school's junior class has the same weight in each school's average.)
  • The team might have had fewer injuries, transfers or academically ineligible players than others.
  • The team may use a unique offensive or defensive system that allows them to compensate for marginal players in some spots.
  • The coaches may be much better than average at making adjustments, clock management, etc.
  • The coaching staff may be particularly effective in coaching up talent.
  • The coaching staff might be a better judge of talent.

Also, keep in mind that a team that consistently has highly rated classes, can't overachieve much because there it can't go much higher.

Top Overachievers

1. Navy
2. Air Force
3. Ball State
4. Cincinnati
5. Boise State
6. Buffalo
7. Utah
8. (tie) Rice
8. (tie) TCU
10. Western Michigan
11. Central Michigan
12. Nevada
13. Brigham Young
14. Georgia Tech
15. Tulsa
16. Northwestern
17. (tie) East Carolina
17. (tie) Florida Atlantic
17. (tie) Wake Forest
20. Northern Illinois

Under-performers (Worst performers first)

While it is naive to believe a team's lack of success can be summed up in just a sentence or two, since it works for the news reporting on the stock market, here goes:

1. Michigan

A new coach with a new system and rumors that many players didn't buy into the system or the coach.

2. Washington

A coach who was seen as a good recruiter, but many felt he couldn't do much with that talent.

3. Texas A&M

Another new head coach, but in this case one who hadn't coached in college for over 10 years.

4. Auburn

A team that brought in a new offensive coordinator to run the spread offense, but when the offense sputtered early the coach was fired part-way into the season.

5. (tie) Washington State

Injuries made another first-year head coach's job difficult.

5. (tie) UCLA

Another new coach trying to turn around a program.  Maybe they had to take a step back to take two steps forward, but time will tell.

Methodology

The ratings (from a couple of popular recruiting web sites) for each year were averaged. Transfers generally aren't included. These could also significantly affect the results, depending on how many players transferred.

Because student athletes are more likely to be key contributors in their later years, the "Recruiting Rating Average" is weighted in favor of older recruiting classes. 4 percent weight is given to the 2008 rating average, 20 percent for 2007, 33 percent for 2006, 33 percent for 2005, and 10% for 2004. These percentages are based on an average of each class's depth chart participation for several teams.

These recruiting rating averages were then rank ordered to assign each team a Recruiting Rating Average so that each team was given a ranking from one to 120.  These rankings were compared to the team's average ranking based on a number of polls and computer results. 

The recruiting ranking average for each team was subtracted from the ranking that the team earned based on the team's games played.  The higher the number, the more the team overachieved.

Army-Navy. Still the Best Rivalry of Them All.

Nov 22, 2008

This is rivalry week. Or so ESPN tells us.

It's the week we get some big college football rivalry games.

Ohio State-Michigan: Not so much this year.

Northwestern-Illinois: Becoming very interesting lately.

Washington-Washington State: You are joking right?

Utah-BYU: BCS or bust

There are many great rivalries in all sports. None seem to carry the luster that college football rivalries hold.

And none has the meaning of the Army vs. Navy rivalry.

No, neither team will compete for a BCS berth or a conference title. Most times, a bowl game is a great reward to a service academy. And yes, Army has hardly been competitive in the last few years (against anyone).

But, that does not take away from this game.

I know deep down that Army will most likely get beat down again, but I will watch every play from start to finish. I always do.

Many people cannot understand why this game gets the attention it does from CBS and the national media given that it is usually a mismatch and neither team has national prominence.

No answer I give will satisfy these critics.

This game is very special to some of us who have served in the Military. To me, there is nothing quite as cool as seeing the "Beat Army" banner on a Navy Ship or "Beat Navy" on a Bradley or an Abrams.

Alabama vs. Auburn can't do that.

One of my favorite games I have ever watched was the 2004 game. Even though it was another Navy massacre, with a score of 42-13. But, just getting to watch it at all from a bunker in Fallujah was awesome for me. It helped bring a little distraction, even if only for three hours.

Navy has won nine of 11 games and six in a row.

But, I will hold out hope that Army can pull off the upset and make this a close rivalry again.

While Air Force and Navy continue to book their annual bowl reservations, Army continues to look for answers every year.

The future never seems to be any brighter. After today's 30-3 loss to Rutgers drops the Black Knights to 3-8, the present isn't looking good either.

On the bright side, they have four losses by 10 points or less. Hey, whatever you can take right?

But come Dec. 6, all that can change. With one win, the program can take a drastic upward turn.

In the one rivalry where records truly do not matter, anything can happen.

I will hope for the best for Army football and enjoy what is if not the best rivalry in sports, the most meaningful one by far.

Why I Feel Army-Navy Is The Greatest Rivalry In College Football

Nov 13, 2008

"When Army and Navy meet, there is no other game with deeper foundations or greater prestige."

-Official Army-Navy Website

How do you define the term "rivalry"?

The dictionary definition lists rivalry as "the act of competing or emulating". In sports, rivalries are judged by team against team, normally by the quality of both competitors, what's on the line each time the two square off, and what it means to the organizations and fans.

But the most important thing is how much the teams like each other. The average fan would specify that a "rivalry", which is defined as the act of competing or emulating is anything but. The average fan would justify that a rivalry game is the competition of two teams that dislike each other, or the competition of two teams that have storied traditions, rich histories, or title game aspirations.

In college football, though, the term rivalry might bear a bigger definition on how much respect and class the universities exemplify towards each other, whether it be on the field, off the field... or defending the great country that is the United States of America.

In my sincere opinion, the biggest rivalry in college football is the annual Army-Navy game. Meeting at neutral locations every year since 1890, this rivalry might just be the most evenly-matched and most consistently competitive match-up in all of not only college football, but sports in general.

The Navy Midshipmen currently hold a 52-49-7 series advantage over the Army Black Knights, which allows for Navy graduates and students some bragging rights they'll use to their advantage every slight chance they receive.

With the powers toning down in recent years, the game hasn't taken as big of a stage as it used to have back a few decades ago. When these teams matched up several decades ago, the National Championship was usually discussed, or on the line for these two rich programs.

Army has 3 total championships (1914, 1944, 1945), while Navy has one. (1926)

It isn't exactly as glitzy and glamor filled for these two programs on paper compared to the likes of Ohio State - Michigan and Southern California - Notre Dame, but there's many points to consider on why this rivalry is the best in the game.

For one, due to specific regulations administered and outlawed by both Universities, there are more guidelines instilled to ensure that the graduates and alumnus of the respective Universities are fully prepared for their duties following their scholastic careers in the Army or Navy.

For example, Navy is more tough academically to enroll into. We've seen many academic scandals and controversies in the past couple seasons, mainly involving players that were highly sought after out of high school. These players might not choose Navy because they realize and comprehend how difficult the challenges in the classroom are.

Army is a tough military school, and has a lot of discipline. This is the obvious reason that many high school seniors turn away from committing to the Army program, because they want to experience full campus life when they are in college... and going to Army just doesn't give that to you in a sense. (Of course I'm talking about the social experiences, partying and so on)

And for the obvious pointer in this scenario, the post-graduate commitment you make when attending these schools - joining the Army or Navy, respectively. Many football players that do indeed pan out to be National Football League talents are denied permission to play in the league, with only a few exceptions.

The most recent example being Caleb Campell, a defensive back from Army who was drafted by the Detroit Lions. Overjoyed with the opportunity to be a part of the league, which so many hope to reach, he was disheartened when he remembered he had to serve his Army time before he could join his new team.

With so many talented players joining college football today, and top-tier recruits hoping to make a name for themselves on Sundays, becoming a star on campus during Saturday for a traditionally good program such as Navy and Army is overlooked entirely.

With that, though, adds a unique experience to the game.

While it isn't superstar against superstar like most rivalries showcase, it's military branch against military branch. If any game in this fine country is deserving of the crown "America's Game", this is positively the one that has to be it.

No game displays as much passion for the pigskin as what this competition turns out to be. Without the focus taking prime attention to one athlete, the game is taken shape as a team game, with all 11 players for both teams becoming the stars, and that's what really makes sport today, and what really makes this rivalry what it is.

The schedule proclaims Army and Navy each play 12 games, including their game against each other. But in the back of every player and coach's mind burns one deep thought, and that's either "Beat Army" or "Beat Navy".

The game has always been competitive, whether the competition be on the field, in the stands, in the press boxes or where each school's band is seated.

This meeting has seen some spectacular finishes, and some moments well worthy of being proclaimed the best rivalry in college football hands down, and maybe even the best rivalry in all of sports. These players are passionate about playing football, not about the money, the rankings or the draft status.

History has been made countless times in this contest. Instant replay was introduce to the world of college football during an Army-Navy game in 1963. The game has seen future NFL Hall of Famers play, like Roger Staubach, and countless future professionals that were allowed to play... possibly even more if regulations weren't so strict.

Many people tend to imagine what the rivalry would become if the University policies for each Army and Navy weren't so strict.

I feel there would be a big difference, mainly because this rivalry is the best because of the schools. It's a branch of the United States military against another branch of the United States military. It's representatives of what this nation is and has become, and that's explained with one word and one word only:

Freedom.

It's not university against university out there. It's against the men that protect and defend this nation to the fullest of their capabilities, and if that doesn't spell out rivalry game to you, then nothing should, and nothing does.

These teams play for the love and respect for the game of football, not for the sake of hating each other. That's what makes this rivalry the biggest and best in college football today.

Notre Dame in for Long Afternoon Against Navy Backfield

Nov 13, 2008

It's going to be a long day for the Notre Dame defense when it meets Navy this Saturday in Baltimore.

Navy, as usual, is the top rushing team in the country, and Notre Dame has shown little in terms of stopping the run.

Navy's triple option is an offense built on precision and timing. The Midshipmen run it well, and most of the time their opponent doesn't know who's carrying the ball. 

This offense is so complex that most opponents just can't prepare for it in one week.  Navy, once again is averaging over 300 rushing yards per game.

But, it's not just that Navy has the rushing numbers! It's the way they have done it against quality teams. The Midshipmen put up 346 yards against Ball State., 292 yards against Wake Forest, and 244 yards against Pitt. Ball St., Wake Forest and Pitt are all currently ranked.

Notre Dame is a team that hasn't done much to stop the run this year. 

In its four losses, the Irish have given up an average of 167 yards per game.  They even allowed 161 yards on the ground to Stanford and 159 to Michigan in two games they won.

The only teams they kept under the century mark: San Diego State and Washington, two of the worst teams in the country.

Navy is going to have a real good chance to steal this game and make it two in a row over the Irish. It's not just because they will be able to run, but because Notre Dame is coming into Saturday's affair a little beaten up.

Pitt and Boston College, Notre Dame's last two opponents, really wore down the Irish front seven. Pitt piled up 178 rushing yards and Boston College ran for 167.

Navy comes into the game as a slight underdog but I believe this game is going to be settled in the fourth quarter.

I look for Navy to wear out an all ready worn-down Notre Dame defensive line and control the ball for long periods of time, keeping the Irish defense on the field and their offense on the bench.

Two weeks ago in a 34-7 win over SMU, Navy tied an all-time record. They didn't attempt one pass the whole game.  Don't count on that happening on Saturday. They'll throw a couple just to keep the Irish off-balance.

Notre Dame Football Preview: How the Irish Can Sink Navy

Nov 12, 2008

Navy Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense

As usual, Navy runs the triple option to perfection. And as usual, at least in recent years, the quarterback and fullback position are getting the bulk of the carries. No. 2 Jarod Bryant has taken over at quarterback following an injury to No. 10 Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada. But both Bryant and Kaheaku-Enhada are day-to-day for Saturday's game. The two have combined with No. 4 Ricky Dobbs to average 25-26 carries per game and 106 yards per game.

This year's bruising fullback is No. 36 Eric Kettani, who is averaging 13-14 carries and 75 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. Backup fullback No. 38 Kevin Campbell is averaging close to two carries and seven yards per game.

The slotbacks have been exceptionally effective for Navy this year. No. 26 Shun White is averaging 11 carries and a team-leading 92.7 yards per game, as well as 8.4 yards per carry. No. 33 Bobby Doyle is only averaging one carry per game, but he's making it count with a 14-yards-per-carry average. No. 29 Greg Shinego is averaging just over one carry and six yards per game.

White, Bryant, and Dobbs lead the Middies with six rushing touchdowns apiece.

Notre Dame will have its hands full with a team averaging 308 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. The good news is that the regulars on the defensive line—Pat Kuntz, Ian Williams, Justin Brown, Ethan Johnson, and Morrice Richardson—at least outweigh Navy's fullbacks. The bad news is that the linemen will have to deal with Navy's cut blocks, which they hopefully have seen a fair dose of in practice this week.

Safeties Kyle McCarthy and David Bruton lead the team in tackles, and will be looking to repeat the type of performance fellow safety Gerome Sapp had against the midshipmen a few years back. But they'll need some help from a young linebacking corps, who can hopefully stay disciplined against any misdirection plays.

Notre Dame Rush Offense vs. Navy Rush Defense

Notre Dame's rushing game has struggled its way to 115.6 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Armando Allen has been the best of the bunch, averaging 11 carries and 50.8 yards per game, with a 4.5 yards per carry average. Robert Hughes is averaging eight or nine carries and only 28.4 yards per game, or 3.3 yards per carry. James Aldridge is averaging seven carries and 27.4 yards per game, for a slightly better 3.9 yards per carry.

Navy's defense is giving up 116 rushing yards per game. They're lead by outside linebacker No. 5 Corey Johnson, who has 62 tackles on the season—5.5 for a loss. None of Navy's linebackers come in at over 225 pounds, so it will be interesting to see if the Irish counter with Allen's athleticism or Hughes and Aldridge's size in this game.

Navy Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Predictably, Navy's quarterbacks don't throw much, averaging only four pass attempts. But when they do pass, they have been very effective, with a 61.7 percent completion rate. Bobby Dobbs has been the most effective (85.7 percent) in the small sample size of seven passes. KNKE has completed 72 percent of his passes, while Jarod Bryant has completed 56.2%.

No. 89 Tyree Barnes is Navy's leading receiver. The 6'2" wide receiver has 15 of the team's 37 receptions and two of the team's five touchdowns on the year. After Barnes, ten Middies have caught at least one pass, but no more than four. Also, no Navy player other than Barnes has multiple touchdown receptions.

All passing defense stats can be thrown out the window when it comes to the triple option. Notre Dame may be best assigning their best cover corner to Barnes and asking the other 10 players to defend the run.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Navy Pass Defense

Jimmy Clausen has struggled in the middle of the season. He's still averaging 22 completions on 37 attempts, 258.8 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1-2 interceptions per game. More importantly, he's still the starter.

Michael Floyd and Golden Tate are still the top two receivers and are still averaging around five catches per game. Armando Allen is averaging four catches per game, and David Grimes (when healthy) three. Kyle Rudolph is averaging over two catches per game, but as of late Clausen has been forcing the ball to Rudolph despite the coverage, especially on routes over the middle.

Navy is giving up 256 passing yards per game to the Notre Dame offense's 259. Navy's tackle for loss leaders are defensive ends No. 59 Matt Nechak and No. 63 Jabaree Tuani, with 7.5 and 6.5, respectively. Nechak, a physical specimen at 6'4", 249 pounds, also leads the team with four sacks.

Safety No. 8 Wyatt Middleton is second on the team with 61 tackles, while linebacker No. 51 Ross Pospisil and corner No. 18 Rashawn King lead the Midshipmen with two interceptions apiece.

Special Teams

No. 19 Matt Harmon has been very good for Navy this year, converting 14-of-16 field goals with a long of 49. Even more impressive is that one of his misses was a block, meaning it wasn't entirely his fault. Harmon has made all six of his attempts under 30 yards. Notre Dame's Brandon Walker is still at 8-of-15 with a long of 48.

No. 35 Kyle Delahooke has been a very serviceable punter for the Middies, averaging 40.7 yards per kick with a long of 55. He has had two punts blocked in 26 attempts, though. After a rough week at Boston College, Notre Dame's Eric Maust is now averaging 40.4 yards per punt and still has a long of 54.

Navy's kick return duties have been shared by No. 28 Greg Jones and No. 22 John Angelo. Jones, a receiver, is averaging 17.2 yards per return with a long of 25. Defensive back Angelo has had more success, with an average of 22.2 yards aided by a long of 57. Ryan Burkhart is averaging 61.1 yards per kickoff for the Irish. Couple that with a solid 16.5 yard return average given up by Notre Dame, and opponents are getting an average start on the 24.

Golden Tate recently took over kick return duty from Armando Allen. Tate is averaging 20.9 yards per return with a long of 29. No. 45 Jon Teague is Navy's strong-legged kickoff specialist. Teague is averaging 65.8 yards per kick, with seven of his 46 kicks going for touchbacks. Opponents are averaging 22.3 yards per return, giving them an average start on the 27.

Wide Receiver No. 85 Mario Washington is Navy's punt returner. He's averaging 7.9 yards per return with a long of just 16 yards. Golden Tate has also taken over punt returns from Armando Allen. Tate is averaging 8.1 yards per return with a long of 42.


Notre Dame Players to Watch

James Aldridge, Michael Floyd, Golden Tate, David Bruton, Kyle McCarthy


Prediction

Notre Dame 28, Navy 24

Notre Dame-Navy: Welcoming Back the Old School

Nov 12, 2008

You might say that this matchup defines the term old school.

When Notre Dame and the Naval Academy meet in Baltimore this Saturday for the 82nd consecutive year, watch the teams relate in pre- and post-game. No trash-talking. No shoving in the tunnels. You might say this game turns boys into men, if only for one Saturday.

ESPN's overproduced pre-game montages paint football games as life-and-death struggles between bitter foes. However, the Notre Dame-Navy series provides a breath of fresh air from this status quo. Ironic that it involves a team composed of our country's future military men.

Despite the fact that Notre Dame dominates the series wins-losses-wise, it hasn't failed to produce exciting finishes that keep fans on the edge of their seats.

The series had already been going on for 14 years when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, drawing many college-age men into the service. Notre Dame coach Frank Leahy himself went into the Navy. A small, Catholic, all-male school at the time, Notre Dame was on the brink of shutting down due to their lowered enrollment.

The Navy came to its aid, establishing a training facility on the Notre Dame campus, thus keeping the University afloat. The series went 3-1-1 in Notre Dame's favor during the war, and from 1946-63, the Irish held a 13-5 advantage before embarking on their NCAA-record string of 43 consecutive victories over one opponent.

Yet throughout the years, the schools have never considered a stoppage in the series.

Things have changed in college football since then, but this rivalry contains plenty of elements from the past.

The basic elements of Notre Dame's uniform have been unchanged for the past 50-some years, save in the tenures of Dan Devine and Joe Kuharich. Navy runs the ball exponentially more than it throws. Neither team belongs to a conference. There are countless other traditions which both have maintained.

Many have failed to grasp the true spirit of this game, simply because it is arguably the only one of its kind. It is not the bitter, life-and-death grudge match that we're used to. Many contests in recent years have not failed to excite.

In 1997, a Navy receiver was pushed out of bounds at the one-yard line on the last play of the game, and the Irish escaped 21-17. Also memorable is the 2002 game, when Navy maintained an eight-point advantage for most of the fourth quarter, only to have Notre Dame score twice in the final four minutes, including a 68-yard catch-and-run by Omar Jenkins for the winning points.

And of course, there is last season's triple overtime affair that gave Navy its first series win since 1963.

Even so, there's something intangible which sets the Navy-Notre Dame games apart.

In 2005, Charlie Weis shifted our focus to where it's rarely, if ever, been before: respect for a vanquished opponent. His Fighting Irish team stood with the Navy players during their alma mater, paying tribute not only to what Navy has done for Notre Dame, but also for America. Since these young men will be fighting for justice in the not-so-distant future, this is only right.

It might be too late to bring college football as a whole back to this level of mutual respect, but for this one November Saturday, sit back, watch, and enjoy. Treasure every moment of this game, whether or not it is competitive all the way through. You might even come away with a newfound appreciation for college football's history.

In any case, this will probably be the most respect you will ever see in a competitive setting.

This is what remains of the old school, where tradition never graduates and it's never too late to sign up for classes. We could all afford to spend some time there.

The Year America Stood Still: Army's Dream Season of 1945

Oct 26, 2008

1945 was unlike any other year on record.

World War II was ongoing but the Soviets had marched into Poland. Germany’s Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler had fled to his underground bunker, properly titled the Fuhrerbunker.

This is the same year where President Franklin D. Roosevelt sat down with Winston Churchill & Joseph Stalin at the Yalta Conference. In February of 1945, the battle of Iwo Jima took place when 30,000 Marines stormed the island to help further American victory in the Pacific Theatre.

Most notably, the largest bittersweet memory of 1945 was the dropping of the atomic bomb on Nagasaki & Hiroshima, Japan.

On May 8 of 1945, the Germans surrender to the Allied Forces.

On September 12 of 1945, the Japanese surrendered to the American-led Allied Forces in Singapore.

Life in America marched on with a new sense of pride.

The Chicago Cubs made the World Series but lost to the Detroit Tigers. The Chicago Cubs have yet to return to the World Series since.

Many future sports icons were born in 1945 from Phil Jackson and Larry Bowa to Walt Frazier and Jim Palmer.

Still, America was missing something. Baseball was still the national past time. Football was just as controversial then as it is today.

The year before, the Army football team was crowned by the Associated Press as national champions after a 9-0 season. Controversy erupted when Ohio State finished 9-0 but didn’t receive the same recognition from the media after they had just won national champion honors in 1942.

1944 was just the second time Army was crowned as college football national champions by the Associated Press. The first came in 1914.

1945 was a special year for the Black Knights football program. After receiving its second national title the year before, the Army Black Knights continued to stroll forward under head coach Earl “Red” Blaik.

The most famous game of the 1945 season took place at Yankee Stadium on November 9. The unbeaten Fighting Irish of Notre Dame were ranked second in the nation. The cadets from Army were unbeaten as well. In “The House That Ruth Built,” Army smacked Notre Dame around, winning 48-0.

Army’s win over Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium exemplified their 1945 season. Army averaged 8-yards per play on offense and 46 points per game. Their defense allowed just 6 points per game.

Army was led fullback Doc Blanchard. In 1945, the fullback position was nothing like it is today. The fullback position put rings around the eyes of defenders like they were looking at the planet Saturn. He also played linebacker, placekicker, and punter.

1942, Doc Blanchard was a freshman at North Carolina. At the end of the year, he enlisted in the United States Army. On July 2, 1944, Blanchard received an appointment to the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York. While playing football at West Point, Blanchard’s teams went 27-0-1.

In 1945, Doc Blanchard won the Heisman Trophy. In 1946, Blanchard was drafted 3rd overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers. He decided that professional football wasn’t for him and went on to become a pilot for the newly formed United States Air Force. This football star turned hero went on to serve our nation in the Korean War & Vietnam War.

Speaking of Blanchard, Notre Dame coach Ed McKeever once said “I’ve just seen Superman in the flesh.”

On December 1, in front of 102,000 fans in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, including President Truman, Blanchard led the Knights offensive with three touchdowns (one on defense) in a victory over rival Navy.

Even though World War II was over by the fall, the Black Knights would continue their offensive and finish the season as national champions with a 9-0 record. The Alabama Crimson Tide finished 10-0 but were not recognized by the Associated Press.

1945 was a year where America stood still. World War II was wrapping up in scary fashion. Communism began to engulf Eastern Europe. Wages started to soar for the American worker and Army won its second consecutive national championship in football. Things were beginning to look up for the country.

Pro Draft Guide

Carrying On About College Football (Oct. 5)

Oct 5, 2008

Getting a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown makes it hard to win a football game.  Getting two punts blocked and returned for touchdowns in the same contest makes it almost impossible, and Air Force learned that the hard way in this week’s “Diamond in the Rough”.

 

1.  DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH: NAVY 33, AIR FORCE 27

 

Despite playing without their starting quarterback, the Navy Midshipmen improved to 4-2 and took a big step toward retaining the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy with a hard-fought 33-27 win at Air Force on Saturday afternoon.

As a journalist, I’m not going to complain about only having to type “Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada” once; but Navy fans had to be understandably concerned about competing without their senior playcaller due to a hamstring injury.

Enter backup Jarod Bryant.  Executing the triple-option almost flawlessly, Bryant led the Middies with 101 rushing yards on 24 carries from his quarterback position.  In case you haven’t seen a lot of service academy football lately, the teams actually boast virtually identical run-heavy offensive schemes, and combined for a whopping 112 rushing attempts on the afternoon.

I’m hoping tickets to the game were cheap, because the dependence on the ground game sure speeds things along and shortens the action.  A fan that left to get a pretzel at the concession stand might miss a whole quarter before he got back to his seat!  Bryant completed exactly one more pass than I did in the contest, if that tells you anything about the disparity between run and pass plays.

Yes, you read that correctly.  The winning quarterback threw two passes in the game and connected on half of them.

As mentioned earlier, one of the huge stories in this game was special teams.  Navy’s Blake Carter did most of the damage: Carter ran the first blocked punt back for a touchdown and blocked the other one himself (Bobby Doyle scored on the second Middie return).

On the Air Force side of things, defensive end Jake Paulson played an outstanding game in a losing effort.   Paulson was making tackles everywhere on the field, and he also recovered a fumble for the second straight game.  Despite their star lineman’s performance, however, the Cadets came up an onside kick short and fell to 3-2 on the season.

I want to throw in an editorial note here: watching a game like this was especially enjoyable because these teams and players are about so much more than football.  As Falcon coach Troy Calhoun said, the young men have a mutual respect for each other because of the curriculum, leadership, and military responsibility their academies are known for. 

Calhoun knows what the academy football player’s life is like better than most: in addition to his current role as head coach, he is actually a 1989 Air Force graduate and former Falcon quarterback.  While his team may have come up on the short end of the scoreboard this weekend, every player on the field (the future officers of our country’s military) competed hard and should be commended...for much more than football.  

Here’s my random thoughts on this week’s “Diamond in the Rough”:

 

- After the departure of previous coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech, Ken Niumatalolo is on track to take the Middies bowling in his first year at the helm (pun intended).  A postseason appearance would be Navy’s sixth bowl trip in the past seven seasons.

- The Midshipmen have led the country in rushing for the past three seasons, and with Shun White and Eric Kettani in the backfield, they could make it four in a row.  Kettani had 75 yards on the ground from his fullback spot.

- I learned a little bit about the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy this weekend.  Navy, Army, and Air Force all play each other during the season, and the school that beats the other two gets the traveling trophy.  If the teams split all the games (all 3 schools finish 1-1), whichever school currently has the trophy retains it. 

While it may not be a national championship, this competition does have a similar perk: the trophy winner gets a trip to the White House.  Navy has owned the hardware for the past five seasons, and can ensure its stay in Annapolis with a win over the Cadets later this year.

- One of the funny things about triple-option football is that it’s easy to get faked out and not know where the ball is.  Just ask the Versus cameraman.

- Game management is important when you don’t throw the ball much.  For example, a holding penalty becomes a critical error, while converting 3rd-and-long is extremely unlikely.  One interesting thing I noticed: the longer the third down, the deeper the running back caught the pitch.  I guess forward momentum and running downhill is essential—at least, I hope that’s why they toss the ball seven yards backward on 3rd-and-4.

- With the thin air in Colorado Springs (approx. 6500 ft. elevation), there weren’t a lot of kick returns.  Touchback.  Touchback.  Touchback.

- Today’s great playcalling example... (I pick on coaches later in the column, so I should make sure and compliment them on good decisions, right?)  Navy gets the ball on its own 1-yard line and immediately uses a hard count from the quarterback to get five free yards on an offsides penalty. 

The hard count is genius in this situation, because it’s no risk, all reward.  If your lineman accidentally jumps first, what’s the worst that can happen?  The ball moves back a few inches.  Let me see...a chance to move 18 inches back or five yards ahead?  Good decision by the Navy coaching staff...and impeccable execution by the quarterback.

- Not many college football games start out with a flyover from a B-2 bomber.  Pretty cool.

Think I should cover your team in “Diamond in the Rough”?  Is your favorite school’s big game flying beneath the media radar?  I can be convinced...e-mail footballcolumn@yahoo.com if you want to see an in-depth profile of your team’s game in a future edition of Carrying On About College Football.

2.  MAYBE BROADCASTING IS EASIER THAN I THOUGHT

Here are this week’s wacky and weird announcer quotes:

Referring to Texas Tech’s strength of schedule:

“They’ve also beaten Southern Meth.

(awkward pause)

...odist.”  – Ray Bentley

I don’t think the good folks at SMU will appreciate that particular abbreviation of their school’s name.  Can you picture the biology student on his way to class?  “I’m just going to my Southern Meth lab, Mom...talk to you later!”

 

“And it’s a shovel pass to DeMyron Martin, who sees his first carry of the game.” – Tom Hart

Is it a pass?  or a carry?  Make up your mind already.

Talking about how big it would be for Auburn to get a win on the road at Vanderbilt:

“That stadium is the most intimidating in all of...Nashville.” – Mark May

 

And last, but not least a reader submission from Jason...

 

Referring to Wisconsin’s dominance in home games:

“They’ve won 22 of their last 22 night games, including 11 in a row.” – Todd Blackledge

 

Don’t forget...if you hear an announcer quote you just can’t believe, send it to footballcolumn@yahoo.com before the weekly deadline (Sunday nights at 7 pm): you might make it into next week’s article!

3.  THAT CAN’T BE RIGHT

The ridiculous stat lines and improbable scores that make you think the sports ticker has malfunctioned...

Georgia Tech WR Demaryius Thomas: 9 catches, 230 yards, 1 TD

Georgia Tech QB Jaybo Shaw, 9-14 passing, 230 yards, 1 TD

For those of you that need a little help processing that stat, only one Georgia Tech player caught a pass on Saturday...all nine completions went to the same guy!  A balanced offense it was not...but the Jackets still posted a big-time shutout win against Duke.

Special recognition for impressive stat lines also goes to:

Florida State RB Antone Smith (4 rushing touchdowns)

Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell (7 total touchdowns: 6 pass, 1 rush)

Iowa State for jumping out to a 20-0 halftime lead on nationally ranked Kansas (even though they wound up losing, 35-33.)

4.  THANK GOODNESS FOR MY DVR

This section of the column, where we run down the jaw-dropping highlights that were worth rewinding for, has to start with Middle Tennessee State way back on Tuesday.  In case you missed the game, the Blue Raiders were trailing Florida Atlantic 13-0 late in the contest, but pulled off a miracle 14-13 win by completing a Hail Mary pass with no time left. 

Quarterback Joe Craddock let the ball fly from 32 yards away, and freshman wide receiver Malcolm Beyah came down with it in a crowded end zone to send the entire stadium into hysteria.

I asked Beyah later this week what he was thinking as he went up to attempt the game-winning catch, and his answer was simple: “I was thinking that we needed a win.  I saw the ball, so I jumped and caught it.” 

Malcolm also told me that the play has “worked in practice, but never like that,” and mentioned how the big comeback win gives MTSU “a major confidence boost going into the rest of the schedule; it lets us know that we can play with any team.”

Congratulations to the Blue Raiders on posting this week’s No. 1 DVR play.  Honorable mention in the “you had to see it to believe it” category goes to a quartet of players that made amazing one-handed end zone catches...even though none of them should really count for our purposes! 

Marty Booker, Chicago Bears

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

Greg Carrone, Florida State

Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina

What can I say?  I like one-handed catches!  Here’s the disclaimers: two of the players are obviously in the NFL, not college... but the catches were so insanely good I had to mention them. 

The two college players didn’t actually get touchdowns because of a penalty (FSU) and not getting a toe inbounds (UNC).  But you know what?  I thought they were worth rewinding for...

...and it’s my column!

Your favorite highlight of the weekend could appear here!  E-mail me next weekend at footballcolumn@yahoo.com with the play that was worth rewinding for!

 

5.  SINCE I DO LIVE IN OHIO... (news from around the Big Ten)

Congratulations to Illini QB Juice Williams for setting a Michigan Stadium record with 431 all-purpose yards.  Williams’ victorious performance makes U-M coach Rich Rodriguez 0-1 in homecoming games at Michigan.  If you ask me, that’s a far cry from legendary coach Bo Schembechler, who was an unblemished 21-0 on Homecoming.  This officially ends today’s edition of COACF’s “Random trivia you can impress your friends with.”

Oh, and one other goofy Big Ten story you may not have heard about: the Wisconsin band didn’t show up for Saturday night’s home game against Ohio State.

Literally.  The entire band was suspended for the game as part of an ongoing investigation into hazing and other improper activities.

At least there was a reason.  After all, Purdue’s offense didn’t show up for Saturday’s home game against Penn State, but suspension had nothing to do with it.

 

6.  MAYBE COACHING IS EASIER THAN I THOUGHT

And now, an open letter to “whom it may concern”:

Dear prospective coaches of all ages,

Allow me to point out two things you must always remember as you pursue your coaching dreams and career.

No. 1—when you are trying to convert a 4th-and-1 play with two minutes to go in the football game, do not snap the ball to your quarterback in the shotgun.  The shotgun formation, by definition, means that the ballcarrier will start his ultimately futile quest to gain a yard from approximately six yards further away than necessary. 

If you look up the term “counterproductive” in the dictionary, this is the example that you will find. 

Obviously West Virginia head man Bill Stewart does not own said dictionary.

Lesson No. 2...if thou art in field goal range with approximately two minutes left in a football game (as Iowa was Saturday)...and thou art trailing in the football game by three points (as Iowa was Saturday)...and thou art faced with a fourth down (as Iowa was Saturday), thou shalt always, always, always, always kick the 38-yard field goal to tie the game.

If thou shalt choose to ignore this commandment, thou shalt suffer a final score such as:

Michigan State 16, Iowa 13

...and thy official “Kirk Ferentz Memorial Coaching Seat” shall get a tad bit hotter.

I bring up these things for your benefit; it would behoove you to heed their instruction.

P.S.  If you’ve mastered these lessons and are ready for more advanced concepts, try these on for size (warning: mathematics and strategic thinking required)

A. If you lead the game by one and score a late touchdown, always go for two to try and make the game a two-possession contest.  Finish the deal right then.  (Oregon State learned this the hard way in Utah on Thursday.)

B.  If you trail the game by nine, ten, or eleven in the last few minutes, kick a field goal as soon as possible, even on first down.  You need to score twice anyway, and the time you save by not attacking the end zone will be critical.

Think about it...sleep on it...set the situation up on your Xbox video game...whatever...

...but I’m convinced.

And yes, maybe coaching is easier than I thought.

7.  EVEN THOUGH SEVENTEEN IS A RANDOM NUMBER

Here’s the Top 17 ballot I submitted earlier today:


1.         Oklahoma

2.         Missouri

3.         LSU

4.         Alabama

5.         Texas

6.         Texas Tech

7.         BYU

8.         Penn State

9.         USC

10.       Florida

11.       Ohio State

12.       Georgia

13.       Vanderbilt

14.       Boise State

15.       Utah

16.       Oklahoma State

17.       Northwestern

Note: instead of giving a tidbit on each team, I thought I’d use this space today to explain my current ranking philosophy.  You’ll probably notice that I dropped a few solid football teams out this week (South Florida, Auburn, and Wisconsin among them). 

The reason is that I want to make sure and reward the teams that have made it to this point undefeated.  Now I don’t know if Utah, Oklahoma State, and Northwestern are really in the nation’s top 17 teams, but I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt because their unbeaten records are still intact. 

Ball State is another squad that could crack my rankings in the near future if they remain unscathed.

Remember, you can sway my rankings by sending an e-mail to footballcolumn@yahoo.com and lobby for your team (or against a different team).  I can be convinced!  (Maybe!)

8.  COMING ATTRACTIONS

I don’t know why anyone would need a reason to be excited about the upcoming college football weekend.  But if you do, here’s three:

a. “Worth buying a ticket for”:  a matchup that deserves the hype.  Texas and Oklahomabattle in the annual Red River Shootout; the winner takes a big step towards a possible BCS title game appearance.

b. “Heat check”:  this team’s playing great, but faces a serious test.  We’re going to stay in the Big 12: Oklahoma State has started the year undefeated and is shooting up the national polls.  Traveling to Missouri will show us quickly if the Cowboys are for real.  It’d be nice if they were: I’d sure like to have a recent Oklahoma State football highlight in my memory that doesn’t involve a press conference tirade by their head coach. 

c. “Diamond in the rough”: an in-depth profile of a game that deserves a closer look.  I’m going to give it a couple days before I confirm which game will be spotlighted in the October 12th edition of DITR.  I’m still trying to lay out a schedule that covers a variety of teams and conferences; remember, you can e-mail footballcolumn@yahoo.com to try and get your squad’s upcoming game on the list!

Thanks for reading today’s “Carrying On”—don’t forget to check back next Sunday for another complete wrapup of everything college football. 

 

Tim Cary (yes, Cary…as in “Carrying on”) is a resident of Springfield, Ohio and a die-hard college football fan (especially when it comes to the Purdue Boilermakers).  

To submit thoughts, ideas, questions, arguments, or anything else for “Carrying On About College Football”, e-mail: footballcolumn@yahoo.com.  Send in your ideas throughout the week...and check out the latest installment of COACF each Sunday night on BleacherReport.com.

Navy's Victory over Air Force a Little More Special than Normal

Oct 5, 2008

Navy's annual game against Air Force, part of the yearly battle for the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy between Air Force, Army, and Navy, took on a little more special than normal performance for Navy.  Special teams that is.

Navy, whose special teams had failed to block a punt for a touchdown in nearly nine years, accomplished that feat twice on Saturday as the Midshipmen defeated Air Force for the sixth straight time, 33-27, improving to 4-2 on the season.

The Midshipmen found a crack in Air Force's punt team and twice exploited it, once on a 25 yard touchdown early in the game and then again the fourth quarter when Navy recovered the football after the punt was blocked and deflected into the end zone.

That flaw that Navy found in Air Force's punt team?  It was the Falcon's back wall shifting out of sync as the ball was snapping, leaving the Midshipmen a small gap to break through and block the punt.

Even senior kicker Matt Harmon got in on the special teams action, connecting on a school record four field goals for Navy, from 35, 48, 44, and 32 yards.  In a season where the offense has been Navy's source of points, it was the special teams that finally took over the spotlight and won the game for the Midshipmen.

In a game where Navy's offense was out-gained in total offense, 411-244, Air Force needed not look much further than the special teams and turnover categories.  Of Navy's 33 points, 14 came off of the two blocked punts and another 10 on two turnovers.  In all, the Midshipmen's vaunted triple-option offense only produced a single score for the game on a three yard run by quarterback Jarod Bryant, only 1:23 into the third quarter.

The victory over Air Force helps Navy continue to silence rumors that the Midshipmen were having a down year after starting the season 1-2 with losses to Ball State and Duke.  However, since that 1-2 start, Navy has come storming back with three straight victories, including a 23-21 edging of Rutgers, and an stunning 24-17 victory last week over No. 16 Wake Forest, Navy's first win over a ranked team since 1985, when the Midshipmen knocked off No. 20 Virginia, 17-13.

Navy also gains a huge boost in their defense of the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy, as the Midshipmen look to retain the trophy for a sixth straight year.  Navy also extends its winning streak against service academy teams to 12, which ties the record that was set by Air Force from 1997 to 2002. 

Navy has a chance to win the trophy outright on Dec. 6 when Army and Navy face off at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA in the last game of the season for both teams.  Barring a sudden Army revival, the trophy looks to remain in the possession of the Midshipmen.

At the very least, the victory ensures that the Falcons (3-2) will not get the trophy this year.  An Air Force victory over Army and an Army victory over Navy would result in a tie between the three, with Navy retaining the title for a sixth straight year by default. 

An Army win over Air Force, however, would set up a showdown on Dec. 6th for the battle of the trophy.  Army could claim the trophy that day for the first time since 1996 with a win.  A loss by the Black Knights would give Navy the trophy outright.

The victory also inches Navy closer to evening up the series history with Air Force, a 25-16 advantage in favor of the Falcons.

Air Force will look to recover from the loss next week as they go on the road to take on San Diego State in Mountain West Conference action while Navy will look to increase their three game winning streak as the Midshipmen welcome Pittsburgh to Annapolis on October 18th.

Week 6 Mountain West Football Preview

Oct 4, 2008

(3-2) (2-2)

Hughes Stadium 12PM MT TV: Radio: 1100 ESPN Radio or KCOL 600

On the surface, UNLV might be the favored team, since they have a higher-scoring offense, and their defense comes up big in games.

Now is the time for UNLV to prove last week was a fluke when they were trounced by Nevada at home. UNLV has not won a conference road game since they beat BYU on Oct. 8, 2004, plus UNLV will be only two wins away from being bowl-eligible this year.

Offensively, the Rebels need to keep doing what they are doing, keeping a balanced attack and setting up the spread with Frank Summers.

Coach Mike Sanford has made the right choice with Omar Clayton to direct the spread at quarterback. He has 12 touchdowns to only one interception, and has averaged 260 total yards per game. The only improvement would be on his running game when there is a read option play.

Colorado State will have a tough time trying to defend the trio of receivers in Ryan Wolfe, Casey Flair, and Phillip Payne, who have combined for 11 touchdowns and over 900 of the Rebels' receiving yards.

The special teams is what hurt Colorado State last year, and there could be trouble again. UNLV has a good return game, which could be the difference in this game.

Colorado State will need to make plays in the passing game and score points, both of which they have trouble doing so far.  The running tandem, which was to be good, has been average at best and has been taken away because of being down in games, forcing them to pass.

The Rams will need to try to force turnovers and make some passing plays to keep up with UNLV.

Final Score: UNLV 27, Colorado State 17

(3-2) (3-1)

Falcon Stadium 2PM MT TV: VERSUS Radio: 740 KVOR

The first matchup in the commander-in-chief trophy begins in Colorado Springs.  Air Force has not beaten Navy since 2002, but this year that could change.  

The Falcons are tough to beat at home, but Navy is coming off their first win over a ranked team in years by defeating Wake Forest 24-17.

Navy still has its patented running option game. Do not be surprised if there are over 600 yards of rushing in this game. This may be one of the fastest games played all season.

Navy is led by running back Shun White, who is averaging 9.4 yards per carry and 138 per game.  Eric Kettani has 435 yards on the year and averages seven yards per rush.

Air Force will need to limit those big run plays that the Navy backs seem to get.  Plus, Navy has a plus-six in the turnover margin, which is a reason Navy won last week and is halfway to bowl eligibility.

Air Force, on the other hand, does not have one specific back who carries the load. They have three players who have accumulated 200 or more yards on the season and one other who has 192. The Falcons will run the ball about 85 percent of the time and then try for the big home run ball.

This should be the most competitive game of the weekend in the MWC.

Final Score: Air Force 31, Navy 28

(1-3) (4-1)

Amon Carter Stadium 5PM CT TV: Radio:XTRA Sports 1360 or 103.3 ESPN Radio

Is there really a need to preview this game?  I guess I have to, since it is on the schedule for the Mountain West.  Both teams are coming into this game with different mind sets, as TCU just got smoked by Oklahoma, and San Diego State just got its first victory by beating up on Idaho.

The only really good player San Diego State has is quarterback Ryan Lindley, who is playing very well in his first season as the starter for the Aztecs.  If coach Chuck Long takes any notes from last weeks TCU’s film, it is that TCU is vulnerable to the deep passing game. 

To achieve that, the Aztecs will need to get something done in the running game from Atiyyah Henderson or Brandon Sullivan to keep TCU honest in the defense.

Look for the Aztecs to try to go over the top of the TCU secondary early to try to get on the board early.

TCU is still trying to incorporate Aaron Brown into the offense at running back and a little bit in the return game.  The only problem they have is the emergence of Joseph Turner at running back, who has been very effective so far this year. 

That is a good problem: to have two backs who are capable of wearing down a defense. Look for Brown to have his breakout game rushing and eventually take over the starting job in the next few weeks. This is the game to start this.

Final Score: TCU 30, San Diego State 13

(2-3) (2-3)

University Stadium 7:30PM MT TV: Radio:1240 KFBC or 770 KKOB

Hmmm… this is the Jekyll and Hyde game, because both teams have shown up to perform and then have rolled over to bad teams.  Wyoming has struggled because of inconsistent play at the quarterback position, and this week Coach Joe Glenn named Karsteen Sween to his first start of the year. 

Sween was the starter last year and is making his 19th career start, but this year he has been inconsistent at best when he has had playing time.  To defend Sween, he and former starter Dax Crum have been pulled for each other at different times, which tells me that Coach Glenn does not have confidence in either.

Wyoming actually has a decent team, because their defense is well above average in rush defense and solid overall, and the running game is good with Devin Moore. 

This just proves how big the quarterback position is in college football, because if a team is not consistent then the team most likely is not going to do well.

Plus, Wyoming has historically been bad on the road in conference play, and this game is being played away from War Memorial. It's a double whammy for the Pokes, with bad quarterback play and then a road game.

New Mexico has its own quarterback issue, because Brad Gruner is now their starter after Donovan Porterie is out for the year, and to date Gruner has not passed for more then 100 yards all year in a completed game.  Gruner just needs to limit mistakes which he did last week against New Mexico State.

New Mexico will rely heavily on Rodney Ferguson and the rest of the running backs...well, mostly Ferguson to take the brute of the offensive load.  This matchup of the New Mexico rushing offense against the Wyoming defense is going to be the matchup to see in this game.  Whoever wins this battle most likely will win this game on Saturday.

Brad Gruner will need to make a few plays in the passing game to make the Wyoming defense honest, so they do not stack the box against the running game.

Final Score: New Mexico 17, Wyoming 9