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ACC Rankings: Wake Forest Still On Top

Sep 25, 2008
ACC has a better second week with Wake Forest beating an SEC team in Ole Miss although they needed a last second field goal to do so. Georgia Tech defeats Boston College in Boston in the first conference game of the season.

1. Wake Forest
Wake stays on top after kicker Sam Swank saves the day against Ole Miss. The ACC owes Wake some gratitude for saving some face head to head vs the SEC.

2. Clemson

3. Virginia Tech
Hokies take the red shirt off Tyrod Taylor and find a little more offense this week against Furman. Keywords: a little. This week’s game against Georgia Tech is a big barometer for the Hokies in the ACC.

4. Georgia Tech
It was not pretty, but the Yellow Jackets got a big ACC road win. A Paul Johnson team dominated by defense?..hard to believe. Tech has a great chance to grab a big lead in the Coastal Division if they can win on the road at VT.

5. Florida State
Could Christian Ponder be the answer the Seminoles have been looking for since Chris Weinke left? He looked pretty good against Western Carolina, but it was Western Carolina.

6. Miami
Defense kept ‘Canes right with Florida for 3 quarters. However, the offense still struggles on the offensive line and at wide receiver with drops. These are two of the biggest reasons why Miami has fallen off so much in the last 3 years.

7. Boston College
So maybe losing Matt Ryan is that big of a deal as the offense sputtered badly.

8. North Carolina

9. Virginia

10. Duke

11. Maryland
An embarrassing out of conference loss at Middle Tennessee State. The Terps are teetering on the edge of #12. Friedgen does not have the magic he did when he began at Maryland and he does not have the players to run his offense.

12. NC State
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Navy-Ball State: Can Middies' Defense Support Explosive Offense?

Sep 2, 2008

Ball State fans, welcome to the first installment of "Better Know A College Football Blogger."  In no way did I steal the idea for the name from The Colbert Report.  I would never do that.  I'm a master of originality.

Anyway, today's guest is The Birddog, who is smart enough to not use his real name.  He runs the Navy sports blog, also named The Birddog, and he was kind enough answer a few questions for our niche in the blogosphere.

THE SIXTH BALL BROTHER: There's been some talk on our message boards that Navy fans feel that we were much more inferior to Navy.  But our total offense running and passing nearly matched the 524 rushing yards you guys tallied, yet everyone seems to forget that.  What are Navy fans saying about last year's game?
Point these people out to me so I can smack them.  I'm not sure who thinks of Ball State as an inferior team, let alone "much more."  Maybe Ball State isn't as "name brand" of a team, but I would think that's a lesson that should have been learned last year.  There certainly aren't any columnists predicting Navy to go 12-0, even if they are kind of playing the homer card.
If Navy fans aren't in awe of Ball State's offensive output from last year's game, it's because they developed one hell of a callus when it came to bad defensive performances.  Kind of like the way my wife lost the ability to smell anything after changing so many diapers.
You have to remember that EVERYONE put huge numbers up on Navy's defense.  Navy singlehandedly added a million dollars to Joe Flacco's signing bonus and made Giovanni Vizza look like the second coming of Dan Fouts.  Duke, Notre Dame, North Texas, and Delaware averaged 52 points per game against the Mids.  That makes Ball State's 34 look downright reasonable!
That said, Ball State is almost certainly the most talented offensive team on Navy's schedule this year.  Wake Forest comes pretty close, but the Cardinals have the big-name playmakers.
The only people thinking Ball State is "inferior" are alumni who still think Navy should be playing Penn State and Michigan every year the way they did in the '60s.  Everyone else that lives in the now realizes that this is one hell of a game.

TSBB: How much should we be worried about Shun White?  348 is a huge number, and since we haven't been able to stop the run since I stepped foot on campus in 1998, what will White tally?
Shun White is good.  I remember watching a Navy game a couple of years ago with my brother (an Auburn fan).  When Shun White took the field, my brother pointed him out and said, "Hey!  He actually looks like a running back!"  He easily noticed the difference between Shun and all 5'6", 168 pounds of Reggie Campbell.
Shun is strong and fast, and he was our conference 200m champion last spring.  But as good as he is, he won't come close to 348 yards ever again.
Towson completely sold out to stop the fullback last week.  Navy's coaches expected this and told Shun before the game that they were just going to keep feeding him the ball until Towson decided to take it away.  They never did.  Shun's 19 carries in that game are about what a slotback might expect to get in three games in this offense.
Assuming that Ball State's coaches actually, you know, make adjustments after giving up 200 yards to one guy in a half, White won't have quite as ridiculous a performance.


TSBB: The quarterback from last year, Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, is still injured and not playing.  What seems to be the presiding opinion on Jarod Bryant?
Jarod played the second half of last year's game after Kaipo's knee was injured at the end of the first half.  He did a good job running the offense.  He's actually a better runner than Kaipo.  Jarod doesn't have the same kind of straight-line speed, but he has quicker feet and does a better job between the tackles.
Kaipo is more likely to hit the home run ball, but Jarod is the guy who will consistently get you an extra yard or two the way he puts his head down and finishes runs.  He's a good enough runner that when Kaipo is healthy, Jarod will be playing slotback in addition to being the No. 2 quarterback.
What really makes Kaipo the No. 1 quarterback, though, is his grasp of the offense.  When Paul Johnson was the offensive coordinator at Hawaii, the Rainbows won the WAC title in 1992 with a quarterback named Michael Carter.  Carter just happened to be Kaipo's offensive coordinator in high school, and he installed Paul Johnson's offense.  Add in a year at the Navy prep school, and Kaipo's been running this offense for almost a decade.
Since repetition means so much to option quarterbacks, it's understandable why the guy who's had the most reps is the starter.  While Jarod struggled at times last year making option reads and running the offense, he spent all spring as the No. 1 quarterback while Kaipo was hurt.  He won't be Kaipo, but he'll be better than last year.  As long as he doesn't fumble—which has been a nasty habit—the offense should still click.
Oh, and there are some people who think that Jarod is a better passer than Kaipo.  I have no clue as to where they get that idea, because it isn't close to being true.  It doesn't really matter, though, since Navy's passing success usually depends on the offensive line—and I'm not sure how good they are yet.


TSBB: Does the triple option feel the same with Paul Johnson gone and Ken Niumatalolo in?
It's the same offense.  Niumatalolo and offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper both played quarterback under Paul Johnson at Hawaii and have been coaching the offense with him off and on for 15-20 years.  It's what they know.
It'll probably evolve a little bit differently as time goes on, and we're all curious to see how Jasper calls games.  But when you see Navy's offense line up on Friday night, it'll look the same as it did last year.

TSBB: Besides White, who else is going to have a field day on Ball State's defense?
It all depends on the defense.  If the coaches decide to focus on White, Eric Kettani should have a good day at fullback.  Kettani had 100 yards in the second half of last year's game.  When the offense is really clicking, though, the ball gets distributed pretty evenly.


TSBB: What's your prediction for the game?

I apologize for being wishy-washy, but I hate making predictions.  There's no question that both teams are going to get their yards.  I'd like to think that Navy's defense is better than last year, especially the front seven, so hopefully the absolutely insane 262 rushing yards that Ball State put up in the 2007 game won't happen again.
On the flip side, Nate, Dante, and Darius are all back and have one more year of experience under their belts.

Nate Davis wasn't sacked in last year's game.  If that happens again, then he'll pick Navy apart.  If Navy can actually put together a competent blitz package or two and get off the field once in a while, Navy's offense should be able to keep pace.  Then it becomes a question of turnovers, which probably favors Ball State.  We'll see.



* You can check out my answers to his questions here.

The List

Aug 26, 2008

So, with that in mind, here's this week's List, which is Five Things I Expect to See (and Five Things I Expect Not to See) Out of This Year's Team:


Things I Expect NOT to See:

10.  A New "Soulja Boy" -- Often imitated but never duplicated.  Last year's Soulja Boy phenomenon will forever be ingrained in UGA history as one of those "things" unique to the season.  However, Soulja Boy has gone the way of the Seminole Rap and don't expect to see anything even remotely resembling that.  Richt himself said that the Soulja Boy dance during the Blackout was a "special moment in time" and it wouldn't happen again.  Also, the lack of a new dance for players to go crazy over hurts as well.  It's not like "I Kissed a Girl" gets you fired up...unless you play for Georgia Tech, of course.

9.  More Than Two Losses on the Schedule -- Come January, this team could be 14-0 or it could be 12-2, but I don't see anything worse than the latter.  We are absolutely loaded from top to bottom and as tough as our schedule is, I still don't see it translating into three losses. I might get chastised for this, but I could see Florida, Auburn and LSU all being potential losses on the schedule, but you can't convince me that we'll lose to all three.  Past that, we're either more talented or have more to prove against every other team on the schedule (see: UT and SCu).  Besides, it's my belief that while our Offense is the talk of the town, our Defense is what's going to keep us in a lot of games this year.

8.  Love from the Media -- Look, half of the pundits out there have already said we're destined for a loss or two even though they believe we may be the most talented team in the country. Hell, some of them *cough* Mandel *cough* didn't list Trinton Sturdivant as a player of note until he got hurt, and then all of a sudden, he's an All-American type guy and we can't win without him.  The media hates to be one thing, and only one thing, and that's being wrong. They'll do anything they can to argue a point to death, and not own up to it until they absolutely have to (see: LSU last year).  Needless to say, I believe we'll be viewed like Ohio State from a few years ago (I believe it was 2002 or 2003) when the media said over and over again that the team was lucky and would definitely take a loss.  Week in and week out it was that same song and dance, and the next thing you know, tOSU is in the MNC.  Unless we win, and win BIG, don't expect any love from anyone behind a microphone.

7.  An Auburn 2004 Screwjob -- This is easy to predict.  If we go undefeated this year, we have to be the best team in the land.  Period.  The SEC is universally thought of as the toughest conference, so don't expect any kind of screwjob from the system or the media.  If we go 13-0, we're playing a week later than 117 other teams at the end of the season.

6.  A Heisman Trophy Winner -- Sorry, but we're too loaded at too many positions to have one guy be responsible for an entire season.  Knowshon will not be allowed to carry the rock as many times as he would like because opposing D's will key in on him, and Stafford will not be able to throw as much as he likes because he has Knowshon Moreno to hand the ball off to. Call me crazy, but I don't see a Heisman in the future for UGA unless Stafford comes back for 2009. 


Things I Expect to See:

5. The Largest WLOCP EVAH! -- As it stands right now, Florida is building their season around beating us on November 1.  While that may translate into a couple of losses for them elsewhere (see: UGA vs. LSU 2004 and then the next week against UT), we had better match their intensity if we're going to walk out of there with a "W."  It's not completely out of the question to see both teams march into Jacksonville sporting undefeated records and if that happens, you can expect a USC vs. tOSU type matchup.  On top of that, the SEC will get MAD love from CBS and ESPN (in terms of hype, not respect) to boost ratings in the wake of the new billion-dollar deals.  

4.  An Alabama Blackout -- I've debated this one over and over again and the Alabama game screams "BLACKOUT!!!1!!11!!"  Did you just ask me why?  Ok, good.  Now I can explain my reasoning.  While I personally would rather see a WLOCP Blackout, I don't believe it will happen.  At that point in the season, we should already be where we need to be in regards to our schedule and, on paper, we shouldn't need a Blackout to lead us to victory.  Besides, a Blackout should be reserved for night games and CBS has already slid the WLOCP into a 3:30 slot.  Speaking of which, did you know we played Alabama at night?  Did you also know that ESPN is the network that the game will be on?  Did you also know that because of the two previous points, it makes sense to show an intensity for UGA football like no other on a national stage?  Oh, and did you know that some of our top recruits will be in town for that game?  Well, now you do.  Besides, we're either coming off an emotional win or a devastating loss from the week before against Arizona State.  The Blackout may be the charge needed to keep our game against 'Bama from being the dreaded "trap game" that most people fear it to be.

3.  Total Domination of Georgia Tech -- OK, so I'm one of those "crazy people" that think Georgia Tech shouldn't be taken lightly because it's 1) Georgia Tech and 2) Those games are usually closer than they should be.  However, if we are having the season I predict us to be having, that mean's we'll be 9-2 at worst going into the Tech game.  If that's the case; with our faster-than-lightening Defense and our you-couldn't-touch-me-if-you-tried Offense, we should hang 50+ on them, just like in 2002.  Oh, and trust me, if we don't take them to the woodshed, let them go, and bring them back one more time for good measure, you can bet all you're going to hear from any Tech fan is how Paul Johnson with less talent than UGA kept his team in the game.  I'd rather kiss you square on the ass and give you 30 minutes to draw a crowd beforehand than to put up with one more whiny Tech fan and their pipe dreams.

2.  A Youth Movement that Rivals No Other -- We'll have so many young kids doing the dirty work this year in getting wins that it'll make Barack Obama jealous as hell. Not to say that we're thin in the upper class because you can't discount guys like Allen, Lomax, Stafford, Ellerbe, etc., but we're so talented at such a young age, it's almost scary.  When you think about guys like Green, the two Kings, Samuel, C. Thomas, Curran (he's only a sophomore folks), Rambo, Glenn, B. Jones, Dowtin and a whole host of other guys that redshirted last year or are brand new this year, you're looking down the barrel of a .45 with Dirty Harry on the trigger. It's downright unreal how young and how talented we are.  Half of the guys running over people, road-grading defensive linemen, laying mean licks on ball carriers and catching the fade won't even know what it's like to have ever had a LEGAL drink of alcohol.  Wrap your head around that for a second...I hope you got your shades on.

1.  Dawgs as SEC Champs -- This one should be a no-brainer, but apparently it's not.  The schedule is tough, but not armageddon like a lot of pundits think.  We should be good enough to win the games we need to win and maybe drop one or two that are toss ups.  While I'd love to say the Dawgs will be in the MNC, it's a damn tough call to make right now, but I really see the possibility of us as SEC Champs a real one.  In my opinion, we should be facing a talented-on-defense LSU squad in Atlanta, with Alabama as a possible sleeper contender. Regardless, if we're not sizing up conference championship rings by the middle of December, I'll be really surprised.


So, what do you think?  Am I way off base here?  

Until next time kids.  

Be safe.  

Week 12 College Football Projections: Scores From Every Game

Aug 22, 2008

Week 12 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 22nd, 2008


We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Aug. 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.


Today we preview Week 12.

Game of the Week: Notre Dame 30 (6-4) @ Navy (5-5) 23
This may not be a match-up of elite teams, but it is an interesting game (and more people will read this story if we feature it). For now, it appears as though these teams are headed in opposite directions.

Notre Dame has a great amount of football talent and appears headed for a bowl in 2008. Navy will still probably make a bowl because of its tie-ins (and that it is better than Army), but the team will not be quite as good this year without Paul Johnson running the show.

The Irish try to start another 44-year win streak over Navy by winning 77 percent of the time and by an average score of 30-23. 



Week 12 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Minn. @ Wisconsin9517-35
Duke @ Clemson958-36
San Jose State @ Nevada9517-33
Washington St. @ Arizona St.91.817-37
Mississippi State @ Alabama91.810-28
New Mexico State @ Fresno State91.819-38
S. Carolina @ Florida88.519-36
Northwestern @ Michigan85.218-36
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky85.28-28
LA-Laf @ Florida Atlantic85.220-38
LA-Monroe @ Mississippi8220-33
Utah State @ Louisiana Tech75.412-27
Boston College @ Florida State73.814-24
Toledo @ W. Michigan73.819-30
Rutgers @ South Florida67.222-34
Indiana @ Penn State63.924-30
Tulsa @ Houston63.929-38
Nebraska @ Kansas State60.726-36
UAB @ Tulane60.718-28
Arizona @ Oregon52.522-30
North Carolina @ Maryland49.229-34
Cincinnati @ Louisville49.235-34
Mid Tenn @ Western Kentucky49.221-20
SMU @ UTEP45.929-28
Ball State @ Miami (OH)42.627-26
California @ Oregon State37.726-20
Texas @ Kansas34.437-34
Purdue @ Iowa29.527-20
Temple @ Kent St.27.923-19
Texas A&M @ Baylor26.233-27
Buffalo @ Akron26.226-18
Oklahoma State @ Colorado24.637-30
Notre Dame @ Navy2330-24
East Carolina @ S. Miss21.331-22
New Mexico @ Colorado St.21.325-17
UCLA @ Washington19.733-25
Brigham Young @ Air Force1836-26
C. Michigan @ Northern Illinois16.435-25
Wyoming @ UNLV9.828-17
Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL)8.224-12
Connecticut @ Syracuse8.233-16
UCF @ Marshall8.231-15
Boise State @ Idaho8.233-18
Ohio State @ Illinois536-12
WF @ NC St.534-8
Georgia @ Auburn533-10
Missouri @ Iowa State536-11
Utah @ San Diego State537-8
USC @ Stanford536-7


Updated FBS Standings through Week 12

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastClemson10 - 09 - 1

Can Paul Johnson Succeed at Georgia Tech?

Aug 9, 2008

When I wrote out my ACC picks for this year, I noticed there was a high level of interest in Paul Johnson, the new Georgia Tech head coach. The question of whether his offense will work in the ACC has been a topic of discussion this offseason since it’s been a few years since we saw someone run the option exclusively in a BCS conference school.

The simple answer is: of course you can run an option offense in a BCS conference. I know it’s easy to forget after watching the Callahan experiment, but Nebraska won three national titles running the option out of the I formation in the 1990s. The 1995 Nebraska team is even considered to be one of the best ever. That wasn’t that long ago.

At this point, only smaller schools run exclusively option-based offenses. They don’t require the precision of passing offenses, and that helps when you don’t have top-flight quarterbacks and receivers coming in. However if you get top flight runners at quarterback and running back like the Huskers did, it can be very powerful.

There of course are differences between Tom Osborne’s option-I offense and Paul Johnson’s triple option from the flexbone. The basic concept though is basically the same: make the defense have to make one-on-one tackles.

That’s also the point of many of the spread offenses that are all the rage right now, and the spread option varieties often incorporate triple option from the flexbone in the base offense. If you have guys who can make people miss, it’s a tremendous advantage to force the one-on-one tackling scenarios. We’ve seen the power of that in recent years with players like Pat White and Percy Harvin.

 



 

The question right now is about Johnson’s offense specifically and not the option in general. It’s tricky to project what happened at Navy to a BCS conference because Navy doesn’t get BCS-level players. What we can do is take a look at how Johnson’s Midshipmen teams did against BCS conference teams and see how it compares to the averages those opponents allowed during the seasons in which they played.

The Numbers

In Johnson’s six seasons in Annapolis, he played 30 games against BCS opponents. They were about evenly split between teams that finished the seasons in which they played below .500 and at .500 or above. Just to be clear, “BCS opponents” refers to teams in a BCS conference at the time they played and Notre Dame.

Overall, his teams averaged 27.93 points and 400.33 yards of total offense against BCS opponents. Those opponents on average allowed 26.6 points per game and 371.5 yards per game. That suggests that Johnson’s offense was effective because despite being a mid-major, he averaged a point a game more and 29 yards more per game than the average opponent for those teams.

His squads scored more than the opponents gave up on average in 17 of the 30 games. They also gained more yards than the opponents gave up on average in 16 of the 30 games. Slightly more than half the time, they outperformed expectations.

Now, let’s look at the splits between home and away:

 

Paul Johnson at Navy
Site Wins Losses Totals
Home41014
Away7714
Bowls022
Totals111930

This is not what one would expect, but remember that the rules are different when talking about a mid-major playing BCS opponents. The slate of teams that Navy played at home was more difficult, which gets magnified due to the divide in talent.

Now let’s take a look at the record by tier of opponent. As always, first-tier opponents are teams that had a winning percentage of .750 or better, second tier were .500 to .749, third tier opponents were .250 to .499, and fourth tier opponents were .249 and below.

 

Paul Johnson at Navy
Tier Wins Losses Pct.
First06.000
Second07.000
Third45.444
Fourth71.875

As we can see, none of his Navy teams beat a BCS opponent that finished the year at .500 or above. He was about 50-50 against the third tier, and nearly flawless against the bottom tier. The one loss to a fourth tier team was in his first year when his 2-10 Navy team lost to 2-10 Duke.

If you project the overall numbers into an eight-game conference schedule, that comes out to two or three conference wins a year. If you then win three or four non-conference games, that’s a five to seven win season and a bowl more often than not. Keep in mind that we’re talking about doing this with Navy’s players.

Here’s what his offense did against those tiers:

 

Paul Johnson at Navy
Tier Scored Expected Yards Expected
First16.8318.83289.33316.67
Second20.0024.71350.71370.00
Third37.5629.22478.44383.78
Fourth32.3831.13439.13400.13

It is somewhat odd that he did slightly better against the first tier than the second. Part of that discrepancy is skewed somewhat by a 14-point, 367-yard flop in Johnson’s first bowl game against second tier Texas Tech (who gave up 34 points and 453 yards a game) in 2003.

We also see that he did better against the third tier than the fourth. Part of that discrepancy is skewed somewhat by a couple of overtime games against third tier teams and a 605-yard explosion against third tier UConn (who gave up 358 yards a game) in 2006.

I don’t know enough about Navy to give you a complete answer on why it happened, so it’s just noted for being interested. Overall, his teams missed the averages given up by opponents that finished above .500 by 2.5 points and 23 yards a game. That shows that at least offensively, his Navy teams were competitive.

What about the other side of the ball?

You’ll notice that this discussion has entirely been about Paul Johnson’s offense. The question of whether it will work in a BCS conference was the issue on everyone’s minds. It’s worth it to mention defense though if we’re going to assess his overall prospects at Georgia Tech.

The defenses on Johnson’s teams were very inconsistent. That is not surprising since he can only get players who are able to get into the Naval Academy academically and are willing to join the Navy immediately after school. Add to that the fact that defense doesn’t have a scheme that equalizes things to the same degree that the option does for offense, and the lack of constancy is understandable.

They finished anywhere from the 20s to the triple digits in scoring defense during his time there. Despite the uncertainty he tied the school record for wins with ten in 2004, and in ’04 and ’05 he delivered the fifth and sixth bowl wins in school history.

To be honest I don’t know a thing about his new defensive coordinator at Georgia Tech, Dave Wommack. As we can see from his bio though, he has not held a I-A defensive coordinator job for more than three years in a row in his 28 years of experience. Each time he left such a position he dropped back to being a position coach.

It’s possible that he’s now ready to be a top flight DC, but I don’t know how likely it is to suddenly happen after 28 years of coaching. It may just be that he wasn’t in the right situation in the past and now he’s where he needs to be. The pressure will be on him to get good results if Johnson’s offense really takes off.

Since the ACC is the most offensively anemic conference among the BCS leagues, it may not matter if Wommack doesn’t turn out to be as good as the exiting DC, John Tenuta. Georgia Tech is in a talent rich state and right next to an even more fertile recruiting ground, Florida. A dynamic offense at GT could probably outscore a lot of the teams in the conference even if it’s backed by a merely good defense.

I would imagine right now that Tech fans are hungering for three things: consistent contention in the ACC, a break of Georgia’s seven-game winning streak, and a product on the field that is not boring like Chan Gailey’s teams were. I fully expect to see the first and third happen within two years, but the second could be tough given how good the Bulldogs are right now.

Paul Johnson’s track record indicates he should do better than the 7-5 records that Chan Gailey put up seemingly every year. For that reason alone, it was a good move for Georgia Tech to replace the old coach with the new.

Further reading, with videos

Navy vs. Notre Dame 2007

Flexbonin'

Georgia Tech vs. Nebraska: Interesting BCS Title Matchups (Part 2)

Aug 1, 2008

Georgia Tech vs. Nebraska

I love option football. I love everything about it. I love that it forces the qb to be both the smartest and the most athletic person on the field. I love the split second where the qb has to decide whether to give to the full back or keep it and again when deciding to make the pitch or not. I love that the triple option gives the qb three options. I even like the way the option looks on television as the qb is running down the line.

However unlikely it may be, Georgia Tech and Nebraska would be a very interesting national title. It would be interesting because of the football ideological differences that the two programs now represent.

Georgia Tech has become a program stuck in mediocrity, and mediocrity is fine when talking about Texas Tech, Virginia, or Kentucky but this unacceptable for Georgia Tech. Tech produced the man that the greatest trophy in all of sports bears its likeness from and even though Georgia Tech has not consistently been an elite team for quite some time, its football history is rich. In addition to laying claim to John Heisman and four national titles Tech also owns the record for the biggest blowout victory in college football history with their 222-0 defeat over Cumberland.

My point is this.  Georgia Tech and the option need each other and this year they have the chance to bring both back into the spotlight. Even though I am not a Georgia Tech fan, I like Paul Johnson, I love the option and I love college football, for those reasons I would find it tantalizing if Georgia Tech did well this year, and for those who say a BCS birth would be impossible think about this.  Georgia Tech is returning one of the most talented defensive lines in the country; add on to that the option scheme is a ball control offense resulting in less time on the field for the defense. Less time on the field means that Tech’s defense will have more energy, less fatigue, less injuries and most importantly allow fewer points. Additionally, the ACC is down this year. Thirdly, the triple option scheme is fairly simple and one off season should be all Johnson needs to implement it. High Schools all across the country who run the option can attest to its relative simplicity to teach and use. Lastly, Josh Nesbit.  I was watching YouTube videos of Josh Nesbitt today and I was extremely impressed with his athleticism. I can guarantee you that Paul Johnson never had a qb at Navy that is as fast and as strong as Nesbitt. If he stays healthy, the ramblin wreck just might run all over unprepared foes this year.   

I picked Nebraska to be Georgia Tech’s opponent in the championship game not because I hope or believe they have a chance of making it there but just because Nebraska offers a nice contrast to Georgia Tech. Nebraska represents the most recent team to have great success with the option attack and I am one college football fan that is hoping Nebraska will come to its senses and bring back the old Nebraska way of playing football

Two years after playing for the national title the administration at Nebraska decided that the option brand of football just wasn’t good enough anymore.  The option gave Nebraska decades of success and titles but after two boring years, Nebraska filed for a divorce.  They now wanted something more sexy more modern, more… 21stcentury. Enter Bill Callahan and the west coast offense. Make no mistake about it. Nebraska’s decision to fire Solich was just as much a referendum on the state of option football as it was on the coaching ability of Solich. Some things just don’t belong, and the west coast offense in Nebraska is one of them.

Finally the Callahan experiment is over and maybe now  Pelini can take Nebraska back to being satisfied with not recruiting professional capable qb’s and wide-outs and go back to recruiting big ole Nebraska farm boys and fast option quarterbacks who fit perfectly into the system that enabled Osborne’s success.  The only thing Callahan did was make Nebraska look like the 1916 Cumberland team.

Nebraska playing Georgia Tech would be an opportunity for the huskers to look back 15 years, to look back at their old reflection and maybe find its true identity once again. With Georgia Tech leading the way it’s time for Pelini to pick up the phone and call Nebraska’s old loyal friend, he needs to say he’s sorry and that they were crazy for letting it walk out them that way. It’s time for the option and wishbone football to return to Lincoln.      

Previewing Air Force’s Opponents: The Naval Academy

Jul 12, 2008

Game one of the Commander in Chief’s Trophy, for the Falcons. This mid season game at the Academy will feature first full-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo, who was an assistant last year under long-time coach Paul Johnson.  Johnson left for Georgia Tech, but Niumatalolo did have a nice showing in the Poinsettia Bowl in a close loss to Utah.

There have been rumors of Navy running the triple option and wishbone this year, but that most likely will only be a section of the playbook.  Do not expect the Midshipmen to run a full triple option or wishbone. Niumatalolo will keep consistency with the program; he spent eleven years as an assistant, including most recently as offensive coordinator.

Offense: Everyone knows that Navy will run, run, and then run some more. The option is Navy’s choice of offensive attack, and then they mix in the ocassional deep pass once the defensive backs are pulled in to help with the option.

Navy does return quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who is a Senior, and is very capable of running the option. To run the option well, the quarterback must have good timing and know when to pitch or hold the ball themselves and run, which he has. Last season Kaheaku-Enhada ran for 834 yards and 12 touchdowns, and then he also passed for 952 yards. He is looking to go for 1,000 yards passing and recieving, which has not been accomplished since 2003 by Craig Candeto.

As for the running tandem, Navy will be lead by Senior Fullback Eric Kettani.  Kettani ran for 882 yards last year in his first year of significant time. Another back that will garner attention is Junior Kevin Campbell, who had limited action last year. Navy will play many different backs to give teams different looks from speed backs to the full back dive to keep the defense honest.

Even though passing is not the strong point of Navy, they actually do a very good job of balancing the pass agaisnt the rush. Navy spreads the ball to many different receiveres and backs, and one interesting stat is that the recievers averaged 16.74 yards per catch last year. That yard per catch is five yards less then the top passing team in the country, Texas Tech. Their passing game is quite effective when teams move in their safeties.

Defense: This is not the best aspect of the Navy team; during last season they did give up 36 points per game. That does not give a true representation of their defense however, because while Navy does give up a lot of points, they also make timely stops. Last season they had three wins by less then a touchdown, because of the defense. Another example was the North Texas game that Navy won 74-62, and the defense made timely stops at the end to perserve the victory.

The defense is undersized mainly because the type of athletes Navy gets, but they are fast and play smart football. One thing they need to improve on from last year is wrapping up and finishing tackles and also defending the pass, which is something that they struggled with last year.

Early Prediction: This game is always close, and Air Force is looking for revenge after losing on the road last year and having lost five in a row. Air Force has lost too much offense this year and even with Navy having a new coach, as of now it is safe to say that Navy will pull this out in a close game that will be within ten points.

Navy Football 2008 Preview: Life After Paul Johnson

Jul 2, 2008

Since Paul Johnson brought his triple option offense to Navy, the Midshipmen have defeated the Army Black Knights six straight years, had five winning seasons, five Commander-in-Chief trophies, and have led the country in rushing for several years.

With Johnson moving on to Georgia Tech, former offensive coordinator Ken Niutamalolo has been named head coach.  After his first game as Head Coach in a close bowl game loss to Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl, Niutamalolo is preparing a team which suffered tough losses to graduation and will continue to run the triple option.

The Navy rushing offense has been tops in the country the past three years.  During that span one of the top playmakers in that offense was slotback Reggie Campbell.  The graduations of Campbell and fullback Adam Ballard will no doubt be the two toughest losses at skill positions for the Midshipmen.  Ballard was the leading rusher for Navy in 2006 and third last year.

However, the Mids do return their top two rushers in fullback Eric Kettani and quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-EnhadaKettani emerged late in the year as a top fullback.  Kaipo has started at quarterback since taking over midway through 2006 and has blossomed as a runner, perhaps the top running QB in the nation (or second to Pat White).

Veteran Shun White will start at one of the slotback positions, while a handful of newcomers will battle for the second spot.  Andre Byrd and Greg Shinego are at the top of the pack vying for the spot, but are being pushed by Bobby Doyle and Cory Finnerty.

However, Niutamalolo will no doubt continue a steady rotation which will involve all of the candidates in the rushing game.  Also, backup quarterback Jarod Bryant will receive substantial time at slotback due to his outstanding talent as a runner.

Navy lost all three of its leading receivers in slotbacks Zerbin Singleton and Reggie Campbell and wideout O.J. Washington.  Although passing is a much more minor piece of the offense than on most teams, it is still an intricate part of Navy's attack.

In a full year as a starter, Kaheaku-Enhada managed to increase his passing yards to 952, which is actually impressive considering he had just over 300 the previous year.  With Kaipo's strong QB rating of 154.5, Navy must find receivers for him if they want continued success.  Seniors Tyree Barnes, Curtis Sharp, and T.J. Thiel must mature as wideouts for reliability through the air. 

The offensive line had several losses in center Antron Harper and tackle Josh Meek.  Harper was a top center for the several years he started, and replacing him is a priority for the offense.  Several linemen have switched positions to account for this, and the current leader for the position is Ricky Moore.  The offensive line should continue to be one of the top run-blocking units in the country. 

Overall, the offense should still be one of the top in the country, but with many losses in the starting lineup, it may not be able to reach the lofty numbers of last year (444.1 yards per game, 39.3 points per game). 

Defensively, the Mids' 3-4 defense had a very poor year, allowing 439.1 yards per game and 36.5 points per game.  They did suffer their fair share of injuries, however, most notably to ILB Clint Sovie.  He will return and probably be one of the top tacklers after having to sit out most of last year.  He will help ease the pains of the loss of the team's No. 1 and No. 3 tacklers last year in linebackers Irv Spencer and Matt Wimsatt.

Craig Shaefer, known for making big hits on special teams plays, will fill in the starting OLB spot of Wimsatt after an impressive spring.  The other ILB spot is held by returning starter Ross Pospisil, the fifth leading tackler.  Tony Haberer was rotated in last year and should continue to receive playing time.  Corey Johnson is likely to be the other starting OLB as a returning starter, but Ram Vela should see plenty of time after making big plays last year and becoming a top ten tackler.

The defensive line of the Navy defense is a much smaller, more athletic type due to the required fitness of the Academy.  This can sometimes cause problems when defending the run, as shown when the lowly Notre Dame offense was able to run all over Navy.  However, with two-thirds of the defensive line returning, this will hopefully be a stronger year for the Mids.

Nose tackle Nate Frazier has good experience and will be a better run stopper.  End Michael Walsh is one of the top pass rushers as he tied Matt Wimsatt for the lead with three sacks last year.  New starter Matt Nechak already had experience in the lineup last year.

The Midshipmen secondary is led by sophomore free safety Wyatt Middleton.  Last year as a true freshman, Middleton was second on the team with 88 tackles and could be one of Navy's best players ever by the time he graduates.

Navy returns its top three corners in Ketric Buffin, Rashawn King, and Blake Carter.  Buffin led the Mids in picks last year with four.  Jeff Deliz will take over at rover for the departed Greg Thrasher.  This will most likely be the strongest point of the Navy defense.

The Navy defense should return to a stronger status after last year's slump.  Their pass defense will probably be their strength.  The return of Clint Sovie should inject a needed dose of leadership and playmaking into the front seven, and the run defense will be better than last year.

Navy took a hard hit on special teams, losing their kicker, punter, and punt/kick returner all in one year.  Senior Matt Harmon has waited for a shot at the kicker position and should fill in nicely, while sophomore Kyle Delahooke impressed in punting during the spring.

It will be tough to replace the playmaking ability of Reggie Campbell, who had more than 1,000 yards returning kicks and two return touchdowns last year.  Slot backs Emmett Merchant and Shun White fight for the KR position, while Jarod Bryant will use his speed and elusiveness at PR.

Schedule

 

DATE

OPPONENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 30

Towson 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 5

at Ball State

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 13

at Duke 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 20

Rutgers 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 27

at Wake Forest 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 4

at Air Force 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 18

Pittsburgh 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 25

Southern Methodist 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 1

Temple 

 

 

 

 

 

November 15

Notre Dame 

 

 

 

 

 

November 25

at Northern Illinois 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 6

at Army 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Navy's schedule will be a challenge for Ken Niutamalolo in his first year as head coach.  He will face five teams expected to be better than Navy in Ball State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and Notre Dame.  Navy is expected to win the other seven games, but an upset can always occur (as we so harshly learned last year.)

I wouldn't be surprised to see Navy win one of those tough games though.  If I were to pick one upset out of those five, it would have to be Pitt.  Navy put up more than 40 points on that top ten Pitt defense last year.  Navy's defense may be better able to contain LeSean McCoy with the return of Clint Sovie.

Overall, I expect Navy to go between 7-5 or 8-4 in Niutamalolo's first year and continue to win the Commander-in-Chiefs trophy.  Hey, you never know—with the way things are lined up, wouldn't it be great if we ended up facing Georgia Tech in a bowl game? 

JP Blecksmith: College Football's Greatest Pride

Jun 28, 2008

They play for one reason, and one reason onlyfor the love of the game. Their work ethic, sportsmanship and dedication to their country are the reasons why the Army, Navy, and Air Force epitomize what everything right is about college football.

There are no rumpled jerseys, no earrings, no flashy jewelry, no long hair, nor beards on their sidelines. There are no touchdown celebrations involving unsportsmanlike conduct. Questioning a coach's decision is a foreign thought; the respect they hold for authority is second-to-none.

They are, arguably, the ultimate football players, and more importantly, the ultimate role models.

James Patrick "JP" Blecksmith (Navy '03) was one of those role modelsa role model who never came back after graduating from the Naval Academy.

He was killed November 11, 2004, after deploying to Iraq. His unit was taking part (clearing a building) in Operation Iraqi Freedom II in Fallujah, when he took a bullet to the left shoulder; it eventually lodged in his heart. He was 24 years old when he died.

His athletic and academic accomplishments were impressive. He lettered four years in track, two in soccer, and three in football at the tony Flintridge Preparatory School in La Canada, Ca. JP was first team, all-CIF quarterback as a junior and a senior.

He was named to three national All-American teams as a blue chip athlete. He was also all-CIF track in his sophomore, junior and senior years, and was the Prep League's Most Valuable Athlete in 1999. He was also tenth grade class president, a National Honor Society member and a peer counselor.

JP was the kid you wanted your daughter to marry.

After accepting an appointment with the Naval Academy, Blecksmith played four years on the Navy football team, eventually lettering as a senior wide receiver. While most college football players have aspirations of big money in the NFL, Blecksmith had his life already planned out for him.

He was commissioned as a Second Lieutenant in the US Marines Corps and commanded the third platoon (India Company) of the Third Battalion, Fifth Regiment of the First Marine Division.

Just a few months after celebrating his 24th birthday, he was killed in action in Iraq.

JP had two missions when he deployed to Iraq; to be the best leader of the platoon he commanded, and to bring back all of his men safely. He succeeded in both missions.

His death was the only one in his platoon. JP paid the ultimate sacrifice, and was awarded the Purple Heart, as well as the Bronze Star, posthumously, in front of his platoon, for his bravery.

Many critics of the service academies point out that they are not as competitive (due to height and weight restrictions) as other FBS schools, and in particular, elite schools. The history that these schools enjoy defies that logic.

The Naval Midshipmen and Army Black Knights share five Heisman Trophy winners. The Air Force, with its triple option attack since 1965, has been one of the nation's top ten rushing teams for nineteen of twenty-one years.

More recently, Navy beat Notre Dame, 46-44 in triple OT, snapping a 43 game losing streak going back to 1963. If you don't think that game was monumental to Navy, you obviously didn't watch the game. It was one of the most defining moments of college football, as it showed grit, determination, and the human desire to never give up. 

While many football players look ahead to their potential future in the NFL, the Navy football players know their path is far different. They came to play a game, be their most competitive against a vastly superior talent pool, and hopefully, show some young school-age boys a different view of what sportsmanship, commitment to one's country, unselfishness and sacrifice really mean.  The Navy's sidelines aren't filled with dead-pans into the cameras, or "we're number one" shouts.

Instead, their sidelines are filled with empty chairs; chairs with a set of shoulder pads and jersey of each of their fallen comrades.

A poignant and solemn reminder of really how unimportant football is in the scope of things. Perhaps no game signifies the importance of the contributions made by the service academies more than the Army-Navy game played the first Saturday of every December.

The beautiful sight of college football is completely captured in this game. Young cadets in their formal uniforms, with brass buttons shining in the sun, and their clean-cut, scrubbed faces ready for a day filled with fun, and yet, carrying with them the knowledge that their future is uncertain, but embraced, nevertheless.

They are football players who don't possess the five-star athletic ability of some of their rivals, but whose hearts and minds are so driven, that they are a force to be reckoned with in every game.

To quit is not in their language.

To finish strong is their mission.

To face all odds with bravery, and to finish the game with intensity.

To represent the finest America has to offer, with dignity and class. To play the game the way it was meant to be played. Nothing more.

For most seniors, the last game of the year is the most emotional. Almost every player knows it is their last time on a football field. They also know that for some of them, it's the last time they will see some of their teammates' faces.

Many of them will be deployed, and during wartime, some will not come back.

It is at this point, that they realize they have just played their final football game, and it's time to get serious with life.

It's time to say goodbye to their teammates, time to say goodbye to the other players. Each one of them knows, while they fought tooth and nail to beat each other up on the field, eventually, they all will be working together, on one team, to defeat the enemy and to protect the very precious soil that they stand on. And play on.

After the game is finished, the losing team's alma mater is played, while the winning team's players stand side-by-side with the losing side's players, facing the losing side's academy section of the stadium. And the process reverses for the winning team.

Each sideonce enemies on the fieldcomes together as one after the game, and solemnly recognizes that they all have each other's backs for as long as they live. For sure, there are no losers in this battle on the field.

America, however, has certainly lost some of their finest representatives of real men, and the sport of football has lost some of its greatest players. Not due to their athletic prowess, nor their bowl wins or great comeback-wins.   No, football has lost some of its greatest players because of what they representexcellence both on and off the field. Sacrifice.

And all of football is truly graced to have these service academies remind us of what is really important in sport. Army, Navy and Air Force capture the essence of sportsmanshipcompetition, pride and class. Something both college and professional football players need to never forget, and perhaps, even learn.

The next time you watch one of the service academies play, remember JP Blecksmith's face. Remember this young man with short-cropped blond hair, squeaky-clean good looks and a mega-watt smile that could light up a room.

He wasn't just a football player. He was somebody's son or brother who tried to make you proud of his team and proud of your country.

And, more importantly, he made sure your family was safe while he was watching your back. Yeah, they all have our backs. We thank you for giving us these great games. And we thank you for making us proud to be Americans.     

James Patrick Blecksmith, Navy, '0309-26-8011-11-04 Go Navy, beat Army. R.I.P.  *special thanks to JP Blecksmith Foundation, at JPBlecksmith.org.

Predicting the FCS Upsets, Part III

Jun 21, 2008

My top four most likely FCS over FBS upsets for the 2008 season. Be sure to check out parts one and two if you haven’t already!

#4: Richmond at Virginia (September 6th)

Al Groh’s Cavaliers were one of the better stories in college football last year, spending much of the 2007 season in the ACC title hunt while finishing the year with a 9-4 record. Their success was deceiving however, as Virginia pulled out four net close wins (wins of a touchdown or less) including one point wins over Wake Forest, Maryland, and Connecticut to go along with a two point win over always powerful Middle Tennessee State.  Virginia figured to be rebuilding in 2008 with the loss of all everything defensive end Chris Long (who, to put it bluntly, won several games basically by himself for Virginia last year), but further and unexpected losses on both sides of the ball this off-season have left Groh’s squad desperately inexperienced. Aside from having to break in a new quarterback in 2008, Virginia must replace three offensive linemen and all three defensive linemen, including rising star Jeffery Fitzgerald, who left the team abruptly this spring. 

Richmond, meanwhile, is fresh off an 11-3 season in the ultra-competitive Colonial Athletic Conference in which the Spiders made it all the way to the National semi-final game where they lost to Appalachian State. Richmond returns eight starters on both sides of the football and gets two more back in OL Tim Silver and DE Sherman Logan, both of whom sat out much of 2007 due to injury. They do lose All-American running back Tim Hightower and have a new Head Coach at the helm with Mike London, but the Spiders are no strangers to playing quality competition as their six wins against FCS Top 25 teams were the most of any team in the country last year. Rising senior Josh Vaughan ran for more than 700 yards and nine touchdowns last season, and should fill in nicely for Hightower while duel-threat quarterback Eric Ward continues his development.

After what figures to be a crushing loss to USC in week one Virginia will still be searching for an offensive identity when they return to Charlottesville on September 6th, while their promising but young defensive line will likely be going through some growing pains. I like Richmond’s rushing attack (12th nationally in the FCS last year) to shore up Virginia’s front seven, and for the Richmond defense to give Virginia’s already fairly pedestrian offense some problems. In a close game like this matchups matter but despite the coaching matchup of a veteran like Groh and a rookie like London, I give Richmond a great chance of pulling the upset here.

#3 North Dakota State at Wyoming (September 13th)

After being one of about seventeen people on the East Coast to watch Wyoming dismantle Virginia to begin the 2007 season I was thoroughly convinced on Joe Glenn’s ability to lead the Pokes to a winning season, and after a 4-1 start my suspicions seemed to be confirmed. Yet it was not to be, as Wyoming went on the drop six of their last seven including and embarrassing 50-0 crushing at the hands of Utah. The prospect of watching his team bludgeoned on the field offended Glenn so much that he flipped the bird to Utah head coach Kyle Wittingham during the contest, an act which this blogger eagerly applauded. Still, Wyoming’s downfall in 2007 went largely unnoticed, as the Pokes struggled offensively down the stretch en route to being out-gained by more than 80 yards per game in conference play. Quarterback Karstan Sween was woefully inconsistent, tossing 17 picks to just 12 touchdowns, and the team sputtered under a -12 turnover margin. They do get 14 starters back in 2007 including an explosive running back tandem in Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon, as well as an offensive line which returns its entire two-deep. Defensively Wyoming figures to be strong once again in 2007, although the Pokes will have to deal with the loss of two top flight corners in Michael Medina and Julius Stinson. With so much attention focused on North Dakota State’s running game, Wyoming’s inexperienced cornerbacks could struggle against the experienced and talented NDST receiving corps.

North Dakota State was in a transition state from Division II to the FCS last year and the program wasn’t even eligible for the playoffs. That was probably a good thing for numerous teams throughout the FCS, as the Bison only cruised their way to ten consecutive wins before losing a close game to rival South Dakota State to finish out the year. While all the team’s featured in our countdown are coming off of winning seasons, what separates North Dakota State from virtually every other FCS program in the country was the team’s ability to win two games against FBS competition in 2007, a feat which I believe was never before accomplished since the classifications were established (if I’m wrong on this one, let me know.) North Dakota State’s 27-21 win over Minnesota was well documented by the world wide leader, but an equally, if not even more impressive win came in week three when the Bison shellacked bowl bound Central Michigan 44-14, in the process holding the potent Chippewas offense to 150 yards and sixteen points below their yearly average. North Dakota State spent six weeks as the top ranked FCS team in 2007, and while they lose quarterback Steve Walker to graduation they do return their top skill position players, including one of the best running backs in the FCS in Tyler Roehl (1431 yards, 21 TD last year.) A solid receiving corps returns all the leading pass catchers from last season, including All-American candidate Kole Heckendorf. Defensively they will be adjusting to life after linebacker Joe Mays, but there is a veteran enough presence to keep the team in games and to let the offense go to work. 

This is the one all the FCS fans have circled. It’s not that Wyoming is a bad team, it’s just that North Dakota State looked so dominant in wins over bowl-bound Central Michigan and Big Ten member Minnesota last season that they’ve built a reputation of being able to beat FBS teams. While this could work against them against Wyoming (especially considering Glenn’s background as a NAIA, D-II, and FCS coach) it remains to be seen whether Karstan Sween has furthered his development enough to overcome the inconsistency and turnovers which stalled Wyoming’s offense last season (-12 in 2007.) North Dakota State is a veteran team with senior leadership, and considering the talent level even a solid defense like Wyoming’s could struggle if kept on the field too long. North Dakota State’s potent offense and penchant for upsets make this my third most likely FCS upset of 2008, especially considering continued questions of the productivity of Wyoming’s offense.

#2 New Hampshire at Army (September 6th)

It’s been a long and frankly depressing slide into mediocrity for the Cadets of West Point, as the once proud team that was producing National Championships and Heisman trophy winners some 60 years ago now struggles to post wins over lower tier MAC teams. Head coach Stan Brock hopes to begin a turnaround similar to the run engineered at Navy under Paul Johnson six years ago, making the transition to an option offense while downgrading the schedule, a move which should actually have Army looking up. Nevertheless the Black Knights are likely to have a very difficult time in 2007, as they’ll have only four starters back on offense while attempting to make the switch to the wishbone. The fact that last year’s starting quarterback Carson William’s is not exactly the most fleet-o-foot individual around compounds Army’s offensive issues going into the year, putting the Black Knights in a potentially no-win situation of making the decision to go with the ill-adapted Williams or a true freshmen in Paul McIntosh. In either case, Army will have to rely on solid fundamentals and scheme work to overcome a lack of playmakers on offense, a point exceptionally tough to accomplish in the first year of a new system (for comparisons sake, see Paul Johnson’s 2-10 season at Navy in ’02.) Defensively Army has been o.k. the past few years, but the loss of seven starters from a unit which allowed over 30 points per game in 2007 will likely drop them to the bottom of the FBS defensive rankings. What concerns me the most is the secondary, which will break in four new starters in 2007 against what was the FCS’ 13th ranked passing offense and 4th ranked passing efficiency offense last season.

New Hampshire isn’t an overwhelming FCS power like Appalachian State or Montana, but they’ve been a perennial winner under headman Sean McDonnell (60-47 in nine years of work) and more importantly have had a knack for beating FBS teams. New Hampshire has actually won their last three games against FBS opponents, with the latest being a win over Marshall 48-35 in 2007. New Hampshire runs a spread style passing attack that is more than capable of exposing Army’s defensive limitations, including a revamped Army secondary which must break in four new starters. While Ricky Santos does leave for the CFL after a record setting career at UNH the offense figures to still be potent, with Mississippi State transfer Kyle Aufrey coming in to compete for the starting job. UNH did struggle defensively last year but seven returning starters should help shore up the defense. The good news for New Hampshire is that they see an option offense every year with Rhode Island, so adjusting to the presumed Army wishbone look shouldn’t be too radical of a defensive gameplane.

Army has struggled with CAA teams in the recent past, with the Black Knights squeaking by UMass by a touchdown in 2005 and just getting by a mediocre Rhode Island team in overtime last season. Unlike those two teams New Hampshire has the resume of knocking off FBS teams on a regular basis and has the experience on offense to move the ball against Army even with a new quarterback. New Hampshire is arguably a better team than Army talent wise and with the Black Knights undergoing a transformation in offensive schemes it’s tough to see Army having that much success against a UNH defense which returns seven starters. As an Army fan I hate to go against the Cadets like this but we could see a lot of balls on the ground for Army, something which will cost the Black Knights dearly against a perennially explosive UNH offense.

Check back tommorow for my most likely FCS over FBS upset of 2008!