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How Much Trade Value Does Carolina Hurricanes Goalie Cam Ward Have?

Jan 17, 2014
UNIONDALE, NY - OCTOBER 19:  Cam Ward #30 of the Carolina Hurricanes skates against the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on October 19, 2013 in Uniondale, New York. The Hurricanes defeated the Islanders 4-3.  (Photo by Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images)
UNIONDALE, NY - OCTOBER 19: Cam Ward #30 of the Carolina Hurricanes skates against the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on October 19, 2013 in Uniondale, New York. The Hurricanes defeated the Islanders 4-3. (Photo by Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images)

Cam Ward backstopped the Carolina Hurricanes to the franchise’s only Stanley Cup championship in 2005-06. He was not only part of the team, but also the most critical element in it, winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player in the playoffs that year. He’s been the team’s starter ever since and has just under 500 games played between the regular season and postseason. On that basis, it’s hard to imagine him being traded.

However, Sportsnet’s Josh Rimer suggested that Ward was “in play,” and then those suggestions were confirmed by one of the biggest names in the business: TSN’s Darren Dreger.

It’s a report that makes a certain amount of sense given the Hurricanes’ goaltending situation, too. Backup ‘tender Anton Khudobin has been exceptional for the team when healthy. Third-stringer Justin Peters has also played very well. In contrast, Ward is sporting a sub-0.900 save percentage.

Ward’s recent performance is the first item that’s going to drag down his value in any potential trade, though there are others. He hasn’t been healthy this year, missing significant time to a “lower body injury,” but more importantly, he hasn’t played well when he was healthy.

2012-13 was much the same story; what TSN reported as an MCL injury cost Ward 27 games, and his save percentage when he did play was a mediocre 0.908.

A second point worth considering is Ward’s contract. According to NHL Numbers, he has two seasons left at a $6.3 million cap hit. That’s not likely to be a deal breaker for anybody, but it does mean that Carolina’s bound to be taking salary back in any deal.

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 12:  Ryan Miller #30 of the Buffalo Sabres skates before the start of the second period during an NHL game against the Washington Capitals at Verizon Center on January 12, 2014 in Washington, DC.  (Photo by Patrick McDermott/NHLI
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 12: Ryan Miller #30 of the Buffalo Sabres skates before the start of the second period during an NHL game against the Washington Capitals at Verizon Center on January 12, 2014 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/NHLI

The biggest problem, though, is the market for goalies. It’s a game of musical chairs, and there are way more contestants than there are spots available. In addition to Carolina, teams in Anaheim, Minnesota, St. Louis and Washington all have three NHL-ready goalies and a credible starting-calibre player presumably available for trade. The Sabres, Oilers, Senators and Maple Leafs all have two guys who could plausibly be No. 1 goalies.

That makes for nine potential trading partners for a team looking for a goalie, and only the Flames, Islanders and Jets are really in a position where an upgrade is required (and with all three teams way out of the playoff hunt, it is fair to wonder whether any of them will be willing to pay for a midseason upgrade).

Rationally, the market for Ward during the season should be pretty low. But the goaltending market does not always behave rationally.

Ward has playoff pedigree, including a Stanley Cup ring. He has marquee value and “proven winner” status that a younger goalie with superior numbers (James Reimer, for example) doesn’t bring. NHL general managers have a tendency to value that stuff highly; it’s how Nikolai Khabibulin keeps finding work despite basically having been finished in 2004, and it's why the Philadelphia Flyers were willing to blow up their team to finally and permanently settle their goaltending problem once and for all with one-time Vezina finalist Ilya Bryzgalov.

In that context, the return for Ward could be practically anything.

For a team with lots of cap space, the return could plausibly be in futures and would likely resemble something similar to what Vancouver received for Cory Schneider (a ninth overall pick) or what Montreal got for Jaroslav Halak (13th overall pick Lars Eller, fringe prospect Ian Schultz). Basically, a mid-first-round draft pick seems to be the range for an established goalie.

ANAHEIM, CA - JANUARY 03:  Sam Gagner #89 of the Edmonton Oilers skates against the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center on January 3, 2014 in Anaheim, California.  (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA - JANUARY 03: Sam Gagner #89 of the Edmonton Oilers skates against the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center on January 3, 2014 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

For a team without cap space or not interested in tying it up, the return would probably be a decent player with some warts and a contract. A player like Winnipeg’s Dustin Byfuglien would fit the bill, as would somebody like Sam Gagner in Edmonton. Both of those names are entirely speculative, but Winnipeg cannot be happy with its goaltending situation, and the Oilers’ actions under new general manager Craig MacTavish suggests a preoccupation with landing an established goalie.   

But Carolina should not have a lot of leverage given the state of the goaltending market. They just have to hope that some other team out there has convinced itself it needs Ward or a goalie just like him. It is the difference between almost no return and a significant add.  

Unless otherwise noted, statistics are courtesy of NHL.com and current through January 17. For other pieces by Jonathan Willis, follow him on Twitter.

Carolina Hurricanes' Remaining Schedule Bodes Favorably for Playoff Push

Jan 16, 2014
NEWARK, NJ - NOVEMBER 27: Justin Faulk #27 of the Carolina Hurricanes is congratulated by his teammates after scoring a first-period goal as Steve Bernier #18 of the New Jersey Devils skates away during the game at the Prudential Center on November 27, 2013 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andy Marlin/NHLI via Getty Images)
NEWARK, NJ - NOVEMBER 27: Justin Faulk #27 of the Carolina Hurricanes is congratulated by his teammates after scoring a first-period goal as Steve Bernier #18 of the New Jersey Devils skates away during the game at the Prudential Center on November 27, 2013 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andy Marlin/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Carolina Hurricanes' hopeful push for a postseason berth during the 2013-14 season's second half will likely be aided by their schedule.

With 46 games played and 36 games remaining on the slate, the 'Canes lie five points out of the third seed in the Metropolitan Division and four points shy of the eighth overall place in the Eastern Conference.

A strong finish is undoubtedly needed if Carolina is to end its postseason drought.

Thankfully, the slate of opponents over the course of those 36 regular season-concluding matches is a relatively easy one.

A full remaining schedule can be seen below, with the opponent's record (overtime losses are included as losses) color-coded in the center columns:

Only 12 of the final 36 contests are set to match Carolina against a team currently boasting a winning record. Moreover, of those 12, half of them have the 'Canes playing a team they have already recorded a win against previously this season: They play Philadelphia twice, Montreal twice, Anaheim and San Jose.

Conversely, 21 games pit the Hurricanes against a fellow losing opponent, with three more against the even New York Rangers (24-24).

Adding each game-by-game opponent record together equates to an 816-876 record, or 48.2 winning percentage.

Some of the most friendly dynamics of the remaining schedule:

  • All three 2013-14 meetings with the Buffalo Sabres, whose 13-33 record ranks dead last in the NHL.
  • All three 2013-14 meetings with the Florida Panthers, whose 18-28 ranks tied for second-worst in the East (two of three meetings are at PNC Arena).
  • Both 2013-14 meetings with the Winnipeg Jets, whose 20-28 record is tied for third-worst in the West.
  • Both 2013-14 meetings with the Dallas Stars, who have lost six of their last seven games to drop to 21-25.
  • Three meetings with the Columbus Blue Jackets and two meetings with the New Jersey Devils, both of whom the 'Canes must beat out for Metropolitan position.

In fact, 10 of Carolina's final 12 games face off against teams currently .500 or worse. That timely "easy" stretch will help to counterbalance the fact that 14 of the team's 25 March and April games are on the road.

However, the 'Canes will need to truly play well on the ice to take much advantage of their favorable agenda.

COLUMBUS, OH - JANUARY 10: Goaltender Anton Khudobin #31 of the Carolina Hurricanes watches a loose puck as he defends the net during the third period in a game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on January 10, 2014 at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. C
COLUMBUS, OH - JANUARY 10: Goaltender Anton Khudobin #31 of the Carolina Hurricanes watches a loose puck as he defends the net during the third period in a game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on January 10, 2014 at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. C

With five combined matches with the Blue Jackets and Rangers down the stretch, the 'Canes must quickly and effectively end their seven- and nine-game losing streaks against those two division rivals, respectively.

The Hurricanes will also be challenged by two games in Philadelphia, where they've swallowed the "L" in eight of their last nine visits.

A five-game road swing around the turn from February to March will also pose arguably the toughest scheduling stretch of the entire 2013-14 campaign. After games in Buffalo and Dallas, a three-games-in-four-days swing through Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose—three clubs with a combined 93-34-16 record to date—will test the 'Canes' maximum abilities.

Will the 'Canes be able to overcome a few inevitable hiccups and take advantage of their fairly favorable schedule as the playoffs draw near?

Only the next three months can provide the answer.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

Graphic Analysis of Carolina Hurricanes' Sudden Goal-Scoring Drought

Jan 14, 2014
COLUMBUS, OH - JANUARY 10:  Sergei Bobrovsky #72 of the Columbus Blue Jackets stops a point blank shot from Elias Lindholm #16 of the Carolina Hurricanes during the third period on January 10, 2014 at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. Columbus defeated Carolina 3-0. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OH - JANUARY 10: Sergei Bobrovsky #72 of the Columbus Blue Jackets stops a point blank shot from Elias Lindholm #16 of the Carolina Hurricanes during the third period on January 10, 2014 at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. Columbus defeated Carolina 3-0. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)

The offensive hornets' nest posed by the Carolina Hurricanes during last Thursday's 6-1 win has quickly dissipated into a movement-lacking void less effective than Tomas Kaberle during his brief 'Canes tenure.

Suddenly, the 'Canes have no significant net-front presence, no puck circulation through the zone, no spacing on transition attacks. They're not forcing many rebounds and they're not gaining possession of rebounds at all.

All of the good habits the team had begun to build during its five-game winning streak have sputtered down the drain. As a result, six periods have passed without a goal, as the 'Canes have lost 3-0 and 2-0 decisions to inconsistent Columbus and lowly Calgary, respectively.

What exactly has gone wrong? An illustrated breakdown of the Hurricanes' offensive problems lies below.

Puck and Player Movement: What Went Well

A crucial goal that regained Carolina's two-goal advantage late in the first period against Toronto came as a result of some of the best offensive-zone circulation of the season.

Andrej Sekera protects the puck behind the net while Patrick Dwyer crashes the crease. Dwyer receives no pass and finds himself stuck with Sekera behind the goal, but Nathan Gerbe is able to repeat Dwyer's movement and gets a shot off in the slot.

Leafs goaltender James Reimer makes the save, but the 'Canes continue pressing; Jordan Staal tries a backhand, which is blocked, but Dwyer, who has circled around and found the open space on the left wing, gathers the puck and slides it past a perplexed and heavily screened Reimer.

Watch the sequence unfold below, with red lines representing player movement and black lines indicating the path of the puck:

Puck and Player Movement: What Has Gone Wrong

In a sequence from the visit to Columbus, Jordan Staal has won a nice board battle and finds Nathan Gerbe open at the half-wall.

No. 14 has enough space to shoot if he wants, but the 'Canes inexplicably have no one in position to challenge Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky's save. John-Michael Liles (No. 26, far left) certainly isn't; he's facing the wrong direction entirely.

Thus, Gerbe is forced to pass the puck out to Jay Harrison, just entering the zone at the point.

But Harrison has no options, either. The constant stream of Hurricanes in shooting stances has evaporated into a four-man clique of observers. Liles (top right) is still facing the wrong way. Radek Dvorak (top middle) isn't a very worthwhile target. There's no one in the lane.

Harrison has to dump the puck on Bobrovsky, who bodies it down and calmly covers it on the ice.

Separation on the Rush

Dvorak (No. 18) has just stolen the puck from Columbus' Matt Calvert and has an isolated right-side counter-attack developing with Tuomo Ruutu, the one other 'Cane visible in the image.

Dvorak hands Ruutu a short pass, but the Finnish Olympian gives him the puck right back while following the same parallel line as Dvorak into the Blue Jackets' defensive coverage.

He essentially loses relevance in the play, and Dvorak has no choice but to wrist a soft floater far side, which is easily blocked away by Bobrovsky to a teammate and basically becomes a 'Canes turnover.

In a second example, Riley Nash does the exact same thing to Jiri Tlusty during a counter opportunity against the Flames

If anything, Nash (top) blocks Tlusty's path to the net and forces an easy shot into Calgary netminder Karri Ramo's midsection.

The absolute absurdity of this new 'Canes habit hardly warrants explanation.

The two-on-one finishing skills that were converted into two goals against Toronto, one goal against the New York Islanders and two goals (including the overtime winner) against the Washington Capitals haven't been remotely present in Carolina's last two contests.

Forcing and Converting on Rebounds

The Hurricanes' lack of an experienced crease grinder has been obvious and well-documented all season long.

Eric Staal finally created an excellent screen on Ramo during Monday's game, blocking his sight line on a Ryan Murphy slap shot quite effectively.

While Ramo still managed to smother the puck, it's doubtful he would've been in much trouble even if he did surrender a juicy rebound—the prime real estate in the slot was void of a red-clad forward. 

Establishing frequent goalie screens would be a good step forward for the 'Canes, but the tactic is utterly useless if no teammate is available to cash in on the desired rebound.

By the Numbers

The 'Canes attempted a mere 52 shots in the loss in Ohio but managed to get a surprising 36 of them on goal.

Their shot attempt total rose to 54 against Calgary, but only 22 went down as Ramo saves. 

The two performances aren't that much different on paper than the Hurricanes' previous four games (all wins), in which they averaged 59.75 attempts per game.

However, more concerning are the lengthy five- to 10-minute streaks of nonexistent offensive pressure.

The matches against Columbus and Calgary were littered with "flat-line" sections in Carolina's Fenwick total (which includes shots on goal and shots that went wide but were not blocked).

A visual chart of the minute-by-minute Fenwick accumulation in both games can be seen below, courtesy of Extra Skater. The stretches of offensive emptiness are boxed in black:

Compare the above two images to the Hurricanes' Fenwick chart from the Toronto match, where the team maintained a remarkably steady pace of shots throughout the night (even with the big lead):

The team had a challenging practice Tuesday, as they will seek to take advantage of a four-day break leading up to this coming weekend's home back-to-back. As reports Chip Alexander of the News & Observer:

The Canes skated. They went one-on-one and two-on-two. They worked on finishing off the rush, on getting people in front of the net, on getting to rebounds. On scoring.

"We put together that practice that was upbeat. We laid out the plan for the week and today was a work day. They had a hard practice but they accomplished something, too," [said Kirk Muller].

Carolina will host the Florida Panthers on Saturday night, then face the Tampa Bay Lightning less than 20 hours later on Sunday.

Will the 'Canes be able to take advantage of the lessons learned from the disasters against Columbus and Calgary? Will they be able to break their 121:09 scoring drought and send the PNC Arena crowd home happy, twice?

Only if they can fix the problems that have plagued the offense so oppressively of late.

 

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

Carolina Hurricanes Attendance Improving as 2013-14 Season Progresses

Jan 14, 2014
RALEIGH, NC - DECEMBER 27:  Eric Staal #12 of the Carolina Hurricanes looks for a crossing pass as he slides to the top of the crease defended by Marc-Andre Fleury #29 of the Pittsburgh Penguins during an NHL game on December 27, 2013 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina.  (Photo by Phil Ellsworth/NHLI via Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC - DECEMBER 27: Eric Staal #12 of the Carolina Hurricanes looks for a crossing pass as he slides to the top of the crease defended by Marc-Andre Fleury #29 of the Pittsburgh Penguins during an NHL game on December 27, 2013 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Phil Ellsworth/NHLI via Getty Images)

The hockey fans of Raleigh are steadily migrating back to PNC Arena as the Carolina Hurricanes gradually improve their record.

The 'Canes drew crowds of more than 16,500 to five of their seven games since Dec. 20 to rally their season average from 14,974 to 15,403 per game in 2013-14.

Despite losing all three holiday home games, the 'Canes were a hot Christmas attraction around the Triangle—17,737 traveled to see the rival Capitals in town on Dec. 20, then 18,124 took in Sidney Crosby and the Penguins (the Hurricanes' highest attendance since opening night) on Dec. 27.

The Hurricanes' following hot streak kept observers around even after the conclusion of the holiday season.

Enticed by the offer of a free ticket to Raleigh's First Night celebration after the game, 16,807 watched Carolina's dramatic comeback win on New Year's Eve over Montreal. A crowd of 16,583 then populated PNC Arena last Thursday as the 'Canes routed the Maple Leafs for their fifth consecutive victory.

15,276 took in Carolina's dispiriting loss to Calgary, but considering the circumstances—one of the league's worst teams on a Monday—it wasn't a poor turnout.

A game-by-game graph of 'Canes attendance can be seen below:

After following the general pattern of attendance set in the last 82-game season of 2011-12, Carolina's recent uptick rises sharply away from 2011-12's pace and indicates a strong second half to come.

Carolina averaged just a hair under 16,000 per game during four home contests between Dec. 21 and 29 of 2011.

And while the Hurricanes still place in the bottom quarter of the league in attendance, such "poor support" must be taken with a grain of salt.

The Raleigh metropolitan area—the Triangle—is the sixth-smallest of the 27 areas covered by the NHL. For a relatively small, Southern city with only 17 years of NHL history, Raleigh supports its continually mediocre hockey franchise quite admirably.

As the 'Canes continue their battle for their first postseason appearance since 2009, the short trend of PNC Arena hockey attendance looks to be a positive factor down the stretch.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

Center Depth Emerging for Carolina Hurricanes in Eric Staal, Riley Nash Absences

Jan 8, 2014
UNIONDALE, NY - JANUARY 04: Manny Malhotra #22 of the Carolina Hurricanes celebrates his second period goal during the game against the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on January 4, 2014 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images)
UNIONDALE, NY - JANUARY 04: Manny Malhotra #22 of the Carolina Hurricanes celebrates his second period goal during the game against the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on January 4, 2014 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images)

Injuries to two regular centers have tested the depth of the Carolina Hurricanes center unit so far in 2014.

After the first week, the performance without them has been surprisingly encouraging.

Eric Staal and Riley Nash, who were part of the Hurricanes' four-man group of centers for 78 of the team's final 84 games of 2013, have both been sidelined in recent games.

Nash left Dec. 31's match against the Montreal Canadiens with a lower-body injury and has sat on injured reserve since. The issue came out at an unfortunate time for No. 20, whose play had improved after a rough November.

Staal, meanwhile, departed during the second period of Saturday's game against the New York Islanders, and despite attempting a one-shift return, he was soon ruled out for the remainder of the night. Kirk Muller announced that the 'Canes would be without their captain for five to six days on Sunday afternoon.

The unfortunate combination of ailments has forced the entire 'Canes center unit to step up, and step up they've done.

GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 14:  Manny Malhotra #22 of the Carolina Hurricanes during the NHL game against the Phoenix Coyotes at Jobing.com Arena on December 14, 2013 in Glendale, Arizona.  The Hurricanes defeated the Coyotes 3-1.  (Photo by Christian Peters
GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 14: Manny Malhotra #22 of the Carolina Hurricanes during the NHL game against the Phoenix Coyotes at Jobing.com Arena on December 14, 2013 in Glendale, Arizona. The Hurricanes defeated the Coyotes 3-1. (Photo by Christian Peters

Veteran addition Manny Malhotra has proved why Jim Rutherford took the risk on him back in October in the past week alone. 

The 33-year-old Malhotra entered the New Year's Eve contest barely scraping along in the NHL: In his previous 14 games, No. 22 had not registered a single point, had tallied a shot on goal in only four of those matches and played more than 13 minutes merely twice.

But Malhotra was coming off a six-shot effort the previous game against the Maple Leafs, and his play was peaking at the perfect time.

In the four games since, he's been elevated into a premier defensive forward role—his ice time has risen from 9:31 in Toronto to over 13:30 in the past four games, including a season-high 18:46 against the Isles and 17:24 the following night.

Offensively, Malhotra has experienced his most productive outburst in years. He's registered three goals and four points to go along with nine shots on goal.

However, as always, the Ontario native has made his biggest impact in his zone.

TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 21: Tyler Johnson #9 of the Tampa Bay Lightning takes the face-off against Manny Malhotra #22 of the Carolina Hurricanes at the Tampa Bay Times Forum on December 21, 2013 in Tampa, Florida.  (Photo by Scott Audette/NHLI via Getty Imag
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 21: Tyler Johnson #9 of the Tampa Bay Lightning takes the face-off against Manny Malhotra #22 of the Carolina Hurricanes at the Tampa Bay Times Forum on December 21, 2013 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Scott Audette/NHLI via Getty Imag

He's been used almost exclusively in defensive situations this season—as evidenced by his incredible 77.0 defensive zone start percentage, per Behind the Net—and has put forth a masterful effort in the faceoff circle. Malhotra's 59.6 faceoff winning percentage (294 wins on 493 attempts) ranks fourth in the NHL; his 58.7 percent rate, including a stunning 20-of-27 (74.0 percent) in the defensive zone the last two games, has certainly not hurt that ranking.

Malhotra's promotion up the depth chart has opened opportunities for other players to step into center roles, as well. 

The 'Canes actually fielded an all-AHL fourth line against the Nashville Predators, with Brett Sutter, Zach Boychuk and Aaron Palushaj playing together on Sunday.

UNIONDALE, NY - JANUARY 04: Brett Sutter #42 of the Carolina Hurricanes celebrates his goal at 14:09 of the second period against the New York Islanders at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on January 4, 2014 in Uniondale, New York.  (Photo by Bruce B
UNIONDALE, NY - JANUARY 04: Brett Sutter #42 of the Carolina Hurricanes celebrates his goal at 14:09 of the second period against the New York Islanders at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on January 4, 2014 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Bruce B

AHL captain Sutter has played 12:59 and 11:38 in the two games since his recall after failing to break nine minutes total in any of his first 13 NHL appearances of 2013-14. He tallied his first point of the campaign and first goal in four years Saturday on Long Island, the game-winner; he's also won an impeccable seven-of-nine (77.8 percent) in the faceoff department.

Jeff Skinner, Alexander Semin and Tuomo Ruutu, all of whom manned the wing throughout most of 2013, joined forces to create a makeshift first line in Staal's absence—and scored both of Carolina's goals.

Skinner, who had attempted a mere 24 faceoffs through his first 31 games of the campaign, was an admirable five-of-12 (41.7 percent) on faceoffs in Sunday's contest.

If the 'Canes were worried about their depth and flexibility at the crucial center position prior to 2014, such concerns have been convincingly erased for the time being.

Even as Nash and Staal work their respective ways back into the lineup—Nash could be activated from IR as soon as Thursday's rematch with Toronto—the confidence gained by the entire organizational center unit from the past week may prove decidedly useful in the season's second half.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

Anton Khudobin Single-Handedly Salvaging Carolina Hurricanes' 2013-14 Season

Jan 6, 2014
Jan 4, 2014; Uniondale, NY, USA; Carolina Hurricanes goalie Anton Khudobin (31) makes a save against the New York Islanders during the second period of a game at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 4, 2014; Uniondale, NY, USA; Carolina Hurricanes goalie Anton Khudobin (31) makes a save against the New York Islanders during the second period of a game at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

According to the statistics, the Carolina Hurricanes' overall play has declined significantly over the course of the past month.

The 'Canes' success on the scoreboard, however, has trended in the opposite direction—and Anton Khudobin is largely to thank for that.

After a five-game losing streak ruined the holiday season around Raleigh in spite of Carolina's generally productive offense, a dramatic four-game winning streak has revived optimism and playoff aspirations. Khudobin is at the center of the turnaround.

UNIONDALE, NY - JANUARY 04: Anton Khudobin #31 of the Carolina Hurricanes prepares for the start of the second period during the game against the New York Islanders at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on January 4, 2014 in Uniondale, New York.  (Phot
UNIONDALE, NY - JANUARY 04: Anton Khudobin #31 of the Carolina Hurricanes prepares for the start of the second period during the game against the New York Islanders at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on January 4, 2014 in Uniondale, New York. (Phot

The 27-year-old Kazakh goaltender has made 38, 38 and 31 saves, respectively, in his first three NHL starts since returning from an injury that had sidelined him since Oct. 13.

He's a perfect 3-0-0 in the 2014 calendar year and a perfect 5-0-0 as a Carolina Hurricane, a team with which he signed last summer for less money than his previous contract with Boston. Such success has improved the former seventh-round pick's career NHL record to a splendid 19-5-1 with a 2.02 goals-against average (GAA).

Said Khudobin to reporters after Sunday's 2-1 win over Nashville according to Lauren Brownlow of Fox Sports:

I just was really, really pumped before the first game. I tried to put my emotions back in my head and I tried to focus on stopping the pucks.

Well, we know the situation that every game right now is really important for us. So we just pretty much go out there, win or die.

DateResultSavesShotsSave Percentage
Oct. 62-1 W vs. PHI1718.944
Oct. 103-2 W vs. WSH3032.938
Oct. 13No Decision vs. PHX1820.900
Jan. 24-3 OTW vs. WSH3841.927
Jan. 43-2 W vs. NYI3840.950
Jan. 52-1 W vs. NSH3132.969

The return and immediate game-changing hot streak of No. 31 could not have come at a better time for the Hurricanes.

Despite another concerning injury to slump-ridden Cam Ward and the inevitable cooling-off stretch for career AHL player Justin Peters, Carolina has revived a campaign which, one week ago, seemed spiraling out of control.

I wrote on Dec. 26 a plan to revitalize the Hurricanes' 2013-14 season; while they certainly haven't resolved all of their problems yet, revitalization is beginning to look like a reality.

Yet the 'Canes, when evaluated by the standard advanced numbers, are not playing better at all. They accumulated more shot attempts (aka Corsi) than their opponents in four of five nights during the losing streak; since, they've finished with fewer attempts than the opposition in three consecutive contests (all Carolina victories).

Examine their shot attempt differential over the past nine games in the chart below:

Graph of the shot attempts for the 'Canes (red) and for their opponent (blue) in the past nine games.
Graph of the shot attempts for the 'Canes (red) and for their opponent (blue) in the past nine games.

The unusual disparity between the declining efficiency outlined above and the box score results can be explained through Khudobin and Khudobin only.

Perhaps the most exciting aspect of No. 31's presence on the Carolina roster is not his ongoing run of invincibility, but rather his absolute lack of recorded weakness. To put it simply, Khudobin has never had a counterbalancing cold streak—in defiance of most theories of modern-day NHL stat analysis, there's no definitive proof that he'll eventually succumb to regression.

With his sparkling .940 save percentage this season only a few decimals above his .935 career average, it's possible Khudobin could remain spectacular over a period of months or years—not just a week or two.

Have the Carolina Hurricanes stumbled onto the gold mine of the NHL goaltending market? It might be a little early yet to praise the 5'11" Khudobin to that extent.

But the possibilities and confidence that No. 31 supplies to the entire lineup are exciting indeed.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

Carolina Hurricanes: Can Jeff Skinner Maintain His Goal-Scoring Hot Streak?

Jan 4, 2014
RALEIGH, NC - DECEMBER 23: Jeff Skinner #53 of the Carolina Hurricanes maintains control of the puck against the Columbus Blue Jackets during their NHL game at PNC Arena on December 23, 2013 in Raleigh, North Carolina.  (Photo by Gregg Forwerck/NHLI via Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC - DECEMBER 23: Jeff Skinner #53 of the Carolina Hurricanes maintains control of the puck against the Columbus Blue Jackets during their NHL game at PNC Arena on December 23, 2013 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Gregg Forwerck/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Carolina Hurricanes would be miles out of contention at the halfway point of the 2013-14 NHL season if not for the contributions of Jeff Skinner.

At the halfway mark of the season, Skinner ranks 11th in the league with 19 goals—despite having played in only 31 games to date. In goals per game, his 0.613 average spots him fourth.

It's a massive rebound campaign for the 21-year-old, who was the subject of a plethora of offseason trade rumors after suffering through concussion concerns and declining production since his Calder Trophy-winning rookie year.

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 02:  Jeff Skinner #53 of the Carolina Hurricanes scores the game winning goal against goalie Philipp Grubauer #31 of the Washington Capitals in overtime to give the Hurricanes a 4-3 win at Verizon Center on January 2, 2014 in Wash
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 02: Jeff Skinner #53 of the Carolina Hurricanes scores the game winning goal against goalie Philipp Grubauer #31 of the Washington Capitals in overtime to give the Hurricanes a 4-3 win at Verizon Center on January 2, 2014 in Wash

Skinner led the league in scoring in December, his first fully healthy month in quite a while. He capped it off with two third-period goals in Carolina's rousing 5-4 overtime comeback win against Montreal to conclude 2013, then kicked off 2014 in explosive fashion with a hat trick versus Washington in another crucial overtime victory.

No. 53's incredible streak has lifted the Hurricanes' offense up from the basement of the league to a respectable 23rd. The unit has averaged a very healthy 3.05 goals per game since Nov. 24 and 3.33 over its last six contests.

But Skinner's scoring often comes in predictable streaks, and his defensive liabilities can be equally disturbing during offensive downturns.

Prior to the two explosive efforts sandwiching New Year's Day, the former seventh overall draft pick was a pathetic minus-11 over his last five appearances. He's scored in back-to-back games on four occasions this season, but also gone pointless in consecutive contests four other times.

Skinner's off-the-box-score production is worrisome, as well, as the question of his hot streak sustainability is examined.

Hot and cold streaks often stem from variance in chance conversion—how efficient a player is at turning his opportunities into goals—and, while such efficiency swings wildly from a month-to-month or even season-to-season basis, it generally reverts to a standard player mean over the very long run.

Consider Skinner's aforementioned efficiency (each set of data calculated on a per-game basis) in each of his four NHL seasons to date below:

SeasonGoalsShotsShooting PercentageShot AttemptsAttempt Percentage
2010-110.3782.62214.42%N/AN/A
2011-120.3133.2819.52%N/AN/A
2012-130.3103.7868.18%6.7624.58%
2013-140.6133.64516.81%6.6679.09%

The goals-per-game rate of No. 53 has almost doubled in comparison to any of his three previous campaigns. While his shots-per-game rate has also increased significantly since 2010-11, it's actually down slightly from last spring.

These mathematics reveal the real reason for Skinner's torrid scoring touch: He's simply converting on a far greater percentage of his shot attempts and shots on goal.

A visual representation of the deviation in Skinner's career shooting percentage can be seen below. The black line represents an eight-game moving average; the red line demonstrates a highly indicative 20-game moving average.

Alexander Steen, an NHL forward since the 2005-06 season, has already tied his career goal-scoring high through just 35 games with St. Louis in 2013-14.

Why? He's riding a 20.5 shooting percentage this season. His career average is a flat 10.0 percent. In time, those two numbers will move toward each other, and Steen will return to the typical second-line scoring pace he's historically followed.

Other examples of such variance abound well outside of Skinner and Steen, too.

LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 2:  Jeff Carter #77 of the Los Angeles Kings warms up prior to the game against the St. Louis Blues at Staples Center on December 2, 2013 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Noah Graham/NHLI via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 2: Jeff Carter #77 of the Los Angeles Kings warms up prior to the game against the St. Louis Blues at Staples Center on December 2, 2013 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Noah Graham/NHLI via Getty Images)

Jeff Carter tallied 26 goals in 48 Kings games last year with a 19.5 shooting percentage; he's recorded just 13 in 32 games this year with an 11.1 shooting percentage this time around. His career average is 11.5 percent.

Tyler Ennis lit the lamp 15 times on just 82 shots on goal—18.3 percentin 48 games for Buffalo in 2011-12. He upped his shot total to 108 in 47 a year later, but his shooting percentage halved and he managed only 10 goals.

Carolina's own Jiri Tlusty finished in the top 10 in the NHL in goals last year, but his performance this year (only six goals and 10 points in 37 games) has prompted a storm of trade talk. However, his 19.7 shooting percentage a season ago is on the opposite end of the spectrum from his 9.5 percent rate this season, compared to his 13.2 career mark.

All of these victims of shooting percentage regression may soon be joined by a certain youngster making $5.725 million in Raleigh this season. 

It's certainly feasible that Skinner's accuracy and finishing abilities have improved over time. Nonetheless, the numbers also prove an undeniable upturn in good luck to be partially the cause, too.

Can No. 53 maintain his current scoring pace for the entire second half of the 2013-14 campaign? Possibly.

But the numbers have their doubts.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

Breaking Down the Biggest Carolina Hurricanes Trade Rumors and Speculation

Dec 31, 2013

The snowball that may unleash an avalanche of Carolina Hurricanes trades slid down the mountain Monday night.

The Hurricanes traded failed enforcer experiment Kevin Westgarth to the Calgary Flames for failed former first-round pick Greg Nemisz as evening fell on the first day after the conclusion of the NHL's unwritten holiday trade freeze.

"Greg is a young player...that we hope will continue to develop into a solid NHL player," said GM Jim Rutherford, per the team website. "We thank Kevin for his time with the Hurricanes and wish him well."

Nemisz was drafted 25th overall in 2008 but has been a career minor leaguer to date, tallying nine points in 32 AHL games with Abbotsford this fall.

Westgarth, 29, never clicked as the tough guy Carolina expected him to be, sitting out all but 12 games so far in 2013-14 and going pointless in those dozen appearances. The trade clears his $725,000 cap hit from the books and opens up a valuable roster spot.

While a fairly meaningless trade on the surface, Monday's transaction could open the floodgates for Rutherford and the rest of the 'Canes front office. Per TSN analyst Darren Dreger on Twitter:

The potentially palate-cleansing trade comes after some surprisingly blunt remarks from Rutherford earlier Monday. According to Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer via Twitter:

The coming week could be a crucial one for the 'Canes, who are seeking to end a slide that has seen them lose eight of their last nine games despite playing well most nights. As a turning point in the campaign lies in the balance, Rutherford must carefully execute trades that will both jump-start the team and fill some glaring holes.

Summaries and breakdowns of several recurring Hurricanes-related trade rumors and speculations lie below.

Tim Gleason to Toronto Maple Leafs

A trade rumor that has existed since November has experienced a resurgence lately thanks to the team's slump. Ottawa Sun columnist Bruce Garrioch wrote the following back on Dec. 21:

"The talk is the Leafs are trying to sweeten the pot to acquire defenceman Tim Gleason in exchange for John-Michael Liles. For that deal to happen, it will have to get bigger because Gleason for Liles straight-up would be embarrassing for the Hurricanes."

Gleason, 29, is far from the shutdown defenseman he used to be. His hulking speed, conservative style and lack of skating ability—the attributes that formerly made No. 6 so valuable on a run-and-gun 'Canes squad—now make him merely resemble an elephant on skates.

Liles has also worn out his welcome in Toronto, though. The 33-year-old offensive defenseman and four-time 40-point scorer has been largely buried in the AHL this year.

Rutherford would likely ask for a little more than Liles in return. A mid-grade prospect is one possibility, but I think a second swap of Drayson Bowman and Nikolai Kulemin might entice him more. Kulemin, 27, has disappointed after an unrepeatable 30-goal performance in 2010-11, but he has more upside as a mid-line winger than the ever-frustrating Bowman.

If this trade has been contemplated as much as the rumors surrounding it have, it's hard to believe Rutherford would let it drop now, as his trade trigger is looser than ever.

Tim Gleason to Boston Bruins

The news that former Hurricane and reliable top-four defenseman Dennis Seidenberg will miss the remainder of the season for the Bruins with ACL and MCL tears has opened the door for another possible Gleason destination.

Per NBC's Mike Halford via Twitter:

If the Bruins do indeed resist the urge to pursue some of the market's biggest items—such as the Coyotes' Keith Yandle, the Sharks' Dan Boyle and the Rangers' Michael Del Zotto and Dan Girardi—then Gleason may be the best-priced veteran rearguard available.

Boston GM Peter Chiarelli has been trying to get rid of Jordan Caron, the 25th overall selection from 2009, for years, but he might not have much value to the 'Canes.

Ever-gritty Gregory Campbell, one of the longtime staples of the Bruins' perennially potent bottom six, would be a great add in Raleigh, as neither Riley Nash nor Manny Malhotra is truly cut out as a legitimate third-line quarterback. Campbell, who tallied 13 points in 48 games last year, has just six in 39 this year and might be at his lowest trade value in years.

If cap space is to be an issue, Chris Kelly ($3 million) might be pushed into play as well.

Justin Peters to Somewhere

With Justin Peters' miracle run of the autumn now over—he cost the 'Canes two very winnable home games against Columbus and Pittsburgh in the past week alone—it might be time for the 'Canes' long-awaited goaltender trade.

Anton Khudobin is finally returning after a 10-week injury absence and has made 77 saves in two starts for the Charlotte Checkers in his AHL conditioning stint, helping to ease concerns over Cam Ward's continued poor play.

Thankfully for Rutherford, an ongoing epidemic of goalie injuries around the league should give him plenty of interested Peters suitors.

Garrioch reported earlier in December that the Edmonton Oilers might be a top candidate. Peters' .922 save percentage in 2013-14 contrasts starkly with Oilers starter Devan Dubnyk's .896 average, but Edmonton may be satisfied to ride Ilya Bryzgalov (.916) for the time being.

The New York Islanders, currently sporting the East's worst goals-against average of 3.30, might like to add Peters to their currently inconsistent duo of Evgeni Nabokov and Kevin Poulin. The Nashville Predators are hurting in goal without Pekka Rinne's stabilizing presence too. The Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets may also be intrigued.

It seems that, after weeks of hype, the time has arrived for the 'Canes to get what return they can out of their netminding depth.

Other Trade Possibilities

I've been very enamored with the possibility of a Mikael Backlund acquisition for months.

Backlund is an excellent, young third-line center on a weak Calgary squad, but the expectations set by his 24th overall selection in 2007 have hung hazily over his entire career in southern Alberta.

Dreger mentioned Rutherford's interest in the 24-year-old back in November. Offering up Jiri Tlusty, Tuomo Ruutu or the aforementioned Peters might get the GM-less Flames management to bite.

Ruutu may be creeping up the trading block. My Sunday column revealed that the 30-year-old Finn has theoretically been paid a team-high $238,948 per point this season, and his checking impact has dropped significantly after two hip surgeries in the 2013 calendar year.

With Ruutu's $4.75 million cap hit weighing heavily on the 'Canes' finances, now might be a good time to part ways with one of the club's longest-tenured forwards.

Although it's purely speculation on my part, I think Rutherford might contact St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong, Los Angeles GM Dean Lombardi and Stars GM Jim Nill about the availability of Brenden Morrow, Colin Fraser and Rich Peverley, respectively.

Morrow, 34, has the third-best shooting percentage among active NHL players—a finishing ability the 'Canes lack—and a respectable 14 points in 32 games for St. Louis this season.

Fraser, 28 (one point in 21 games), would make a much lesser impact, but Garrioch detailed the Kings' willingness to part with depth centers Fraser and Trevor Lewis before the holidays.

Peverley, 31, has 16 points in 37 games for Dallas this campaign. While quite a bit more expensive than Fraser, he could fill the reliable third-line center role that has been open in Raleigh ever since Brandon Sutter's departure.

The trade options may be vast, but one thing seems rather certain: The New Year's holiday could be an active one for the Carolina Hurricanes.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

Nathan Gerbe Showing Carolina Hurricanes the Benefit of Low-Cost Scoring

Dec 29, 2013

The Carolina Hurricanes may be getting the most value from anyone on their 2013-14 roster out of a 5'5" forward making just $550,000 this season.

The 175-pound Nathan Gerbe has tallied two goals, three assists and a plus-two rating in the Hurricanes' last five games to up his season point total to 18 in 38 games.

Gerbe's surprising contributions this season epitomize the kind of bargain production the 'Canes have lacked in recent years and highlight just how overpaid the top earners on the team payroll are.

After the final year of his $1.85 million contract was bought out by the woeful Buffalo Sabres last July, Gerbe's signing with Carolina later that month—a deal which not only paid him NHL minimum wage but also included a two-way clause for a potential AHL sentence—was far from a headline-grabber.

However, the 26-year-old winger scored three goals in his final three preseason games to earn an NHL opening-night roster spot, then lit the lamp in three of his first four regular-season appearances as a Hurricane to cement his role as one of the squad's more dynamic offensive contributors.

Aided by his recent hot streak, Gerbe has jumped into a tie for fourth on Carolina's scoring leaderboard. His 17:37 average ice time per game ranks fourth among all team forwards, trailing just Eric and Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin; his 113 shots (almost three per game) lead the team.

Gerbe's advanced stats are also well in the black. Only Semin and Jordan Staal currently boast better shot-attempt rates (aka Corsi) than Gerbe's 53.2 percent, with 559 on-ice attempts for and 492 against, according to Extra Skater data. He's also managed to put up such overwhelmingly positive numbers despite starting more than half of his shifts (50.8 percent) in the defensive zone—often a recipe for a poor shot-attempt differential.

A bit of division shows that Gerbe, whose 2013-14 salary is just 6.7 percent of Eric Staal's team-leading mark, has been paid, in theory, $14,159.89 per point this year. For the middle-class worker, that rate seems like an enormous sum; by NHL standards, though, it's a fantastic bargain.

Consider the per-point cost (based on Capgeek cap hits) of each 'Canes forward so far in 2013-14 below:

PlayerCost per Point
Tuomo Ruutu$238,948
Alexander Semin$170,732
Jordan Staal$154,472
Eric Staal$127,439
Jeff Skinner$81,959
Jiri Tlusty$72,195
Manny Malhotra$47,561
Drayson Bowman$42,683
Radek Dvorak$39,024
Patrick Dwyer$38,415
Elias Lindholm$33,841
Riley Nash$23,841
Nathan Gerbe$14,160

Gerbe's production price is almost $10,000 cheaper than Riley Nash's second-lowest rate. He's helping to counterbalance the vast financial ineffectiveness of the money spent on the team's top guns.

It's worth noting that the best players in the league are always going to be relatively weak performers on a cost basis but are nonetheless vital for success. However, there's no way to deny that the large investments of Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford—which have inflated rapidly as the franchise's budget has risen significantly in the past half-decade—have been decidedly fruitless.

Carolina's $65.2 million payroll is the 10th-highest of the league's 30 teams. Conversely, their 2.32 goals per game currently ranks 25th. Only the New York Rangers are currently paying more per goal than the Hurricanes' rate of $343,768 for each tally.

Statistics such as that one underline just how important Gerbe has been to the 'Canes 2013-14 campaign.

Players like No. 14 are what can make a bottom-dweller into a contender and a good team into a dynasty in the salary-cap-dictated sports universe. Elite, low-payroll clubs like the Anaheim Ducks (possessing the 13th-cheapest payroll), Phoenix Coyotes (12th-cheapest), Montreal Canadiens (11th-cheapest), Minnesota Wild (ninth-cheapest) and Colorado Avalanche (second-cheapest) can certainly account for the benefits of such cautious frugality.

As the 'Canes seek to turn their season around, they desperately need their biggest offensive stars to start living up to their bank accounts.

They'll need Gerbe and the few other bargains in the lineup to continue their success, as well.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.