Carolina Hurricanes

The Carolina Hurricanes' inefficiencies so far in the 2013-14 NHL season can be largely blamed on their special teams, which have proven abysmal across the board.

However, advanced statistics indicate that under-the-radar improvements in both the power play and penalty kill could soon yield tangible results.

At the moment, the Hurricanes' special teams picture looks bleaker than Raleigh's holiday weather.

The power play ranks 27th in the NHL with a 12.5 percent conversion rate and is just 4-for-38 (10.5 percent) in the last dozen games.

The penalty kill, meanwhile, ranks 23rd with a 79.5 percent kill rate and has been torched for four goals (on seven appearances) in the last five periods.

Add the two numbers together, and Carolina's overall special teams rating stands at 92.0 percent, third worst in North America. That informal statistic places the 'Canes ahead of only the Islanders (88.6) and Panthers (84.1) and behind even the Sabres (92.8).

Metropolitan Division-leading Pittsburgh, conversely, tops the NHL with a 114.0 rating. The Penguins will face the Hurricanes Friday, once Carolina concludes its meeting with Columbus (101.5, 12th) Monday night.

Yet the 'Canes are actually playing much better in non-five-on-five situations than the surface rankings suggest.

According to Extra Skater data, Carolina has a minus-74.8 shot attempt (a.k.a. Corsi) differential per 60 minutes on the penalty kill. That relatively strong play spots them third in the NHL, behind only Philadelphia (minus-66.2) and New Jersey (minus-73.2) and ahead of Pittsburgh (minus-96.4) and league-leading Chicago (minus-87.2), among many others.

The Hurricanes power play is also marginally better when viewed with an advanced stats lens, as well. Carolina's plus-82.2 power-play shot-attempt differential per 60 minutes ranks 23rd, several ticks higher than their on-paper position.

Add those two numbers together, and the 'Canes are not only in the positive range—plus-7.4—but also in the upper half of the NHL.

Compare the team's performance in special teams shot-attempt differential to every other franchise in the chart below:

What does such a lack of correspondence between Carolina's special teams efficiency and productivity mean?

• The 'Canes must work on their finishing abilities under pressure.
• The 'Canes might be due for better luck in the coming weeks or months.

It's hardly a secret that the current squad has fallen far from their old "Cardiac 'Canes" moniker; if their stark impotence to convert chances into goals on the power play doesn't prove that, their 2-8 overtime/shootout record certainly does.

Nonetheless, a much-needed friendlier stretch of bounces might also be awaiting the club—the concept known as regression to the mean is often the best catalyst for a slump-reversing winning streak. 

The Hurricanes' special teams are primed to become an even more prominent storyline as the winter wears on.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

Jeff Skinner needed a few weeks to rediscover his groove, but the end result proved nothing short of spectacular.

After returning from a wrist injury on Nov. 21 following a nearly month-long absence, Skinner produced only two points and a minus-two rating in his first six games back. The unlikely yet nagging trade rumors that plagued his summer, originally dispelled by nine points in the season's first nine games, returned again with fervor.

Then the charcoal of motivation caught fire beneath No. 53.

Skinner has ripped off eight goals and added two assists in the Hurricanes' last seven games.

Back-to-back three-point explosions against the Capitals and Predators boosted the 21-year-old to the top of the NHL's stars of the week.

Then, after two games off the box score, Skinner scored in three consecutive third periods as the 'Canes rallied back for at least a point in the final three games of their Western Conference road swing.

Skinner is on a prorated 289-shot pace—his previous career high, set in 2010-11, is 215. He's tallied six or more shots on three occasions within this hot streak, something he accomplished only once in his first 16 matches.

No. 53 is also experiencing a significant upturn in statistical efficiency. His 53.6 Corsi rating over the last eight games (126 Corsi for, 109 against), per ExtraSkater data, is a noteworthy improvement over his 46.5 mark from the first 15 games.

The results are beginning to reflect throughout Carolina's entire offense.

The Hurricanes found themselves leading only the woeful Sabres in goals for late in November. They've picked up the pace tremendously since, however, surging up to 24th in the NHL in that regard.

Since hosting the Senators on Nov. 24, the 'Canes are averaging 3.09 goals per game—production that, if maintained over a full season, would currently rank sixth in the league.

Even more impressively, the club has also rattled off equal or more shot attempts (Corsi) than their opponent in six consecutive contests and seven of their last eight. See the game-by-game breakdown below:

Led by Skinner's ongoing scoring explosion along with Eric Staal's newfound consistency as the captain— sporting at least a point in 14 of his last 16 appearances—the 'Canes offense is sparking the team as a whole.

With points in the standings from six of their last seven games, loser point-aided Carolina currently holds a precarious but nonetheless present lead on the Metropolitan Division's third and final guaranteed playoff bid.

Once a much-needed, six-game break concludes on Friday, the Hurricanes will face a critical stretch of eight consecutive Eastern opponents. They'll need the offense to continue its steadiness more than ever.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

The Carolina Hurricanes' goaltending dilemma grows more complex by the week.

Just as Anton Khudobin's imminent return was about to force a decision out of general manager Jim Rutherford, Cam Ward has begun to show signs that his latest slump may be more than a standard dip in his prototypical irregularity.

And that has sent another tsunami into the team's once-obvious netminding situation.

Ward has won just one of his past four starts and hasn't posted a save percentage above .900 in five consecutive appearances:

It's by far the worst stretch of 2013-14 so far for the 29-year-old longtime franchise cornerstone. Despite starting the season 0-2-3, No. 30 still posted save percentages of .920 or better in three of those five games.

However, considering Ward's enormous injury woes over the course of the calendar year, his increasingly unreliable play adds up to a tremendously destabilizing 2013 for the former Conn Smythe Trophy winner.

Since March 21, 2012, Ward has won three straight starts just once—the final three games before his season-ending MCL sprain last spring.

This autumn, moreover, Ward has posted back-to-back games with a .900-plus save percentage just twice. He's frequently alternated between .950- and .850-ish efforts.

Until this most recent stretch.

Now Khudobin's long-awaited return to the healthy lineup will only add more to the puzzle. 

The former Bruins goaltender, who boasts a 16-5-3 career NHL record and started the season 2-0-0 with a .929 save percentage for Carolina, was injured on Oct. 13 and initially anticipated to miss around two weeks.

His much-extended absence has paved the way for Justin Peters' career revival and some other positives. Yet, almost nine weeks later, No. 31 is finally on the verge of reactivation—and it's going to triple the pressure on Rutherford to make a decision.

Peters, who now sports a .924 save percentage on the season and an above-.900 performance in 10 consecutive matches, would require waivers to return to the AHL now. The floundering, goalie-lacking New York Islanders would grab him happily.

Nonetheless, this three-headed monster known as the Hurricanes' goaltending dilemma may be perplexing, but it's also not new—the issue has been debated for weeks.

What has changed is Ward's stability in Rutherford's internal judgement.

Once almost a god above the two peasants fighting for his understudy role, Ward may now be slipping into the same cauldron as the others. He'll still get plenty of opportunities to turn his ongoing slump around, but his ability to do so may be somewhat questionable.

How long will Ward's tough times continue? Could this supposed slump be merely the new median line for an injury-weakened No. 30?

Only time will answer those questions—and determine his fate with the Hurricanes, as well.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

The Carolina Hurricanes entered the first intermission Friday night aware of their solid first-period effort while still trailing 2-0 on the scoreboard.

"We felt good about the way we were playing," Riley Nash told the press later. "There were two from the point that were lucky. Overall, we were getting chances and getting the puck deep. It just wasn't going our way early but we stuck to it."

Nash's confidence and realistic grasp on the game were clearly echoed throughout the locker room, as the 'Canes went on to rally for a rousing 5-3 win over the Pacific Division-leading San Jose Sharks.

Friday's comeback was, remarkably, the seventh time in 30 contests that the 'Canes have rallied from a 2-0 deficit to tie the game.

This 2013-14 Carolina team, while still just 13-12-5 where it counts, is drastically removed from their "fragile" days of last spring.

The Hurricanes rallied from two goals down in six of 48 matches in 2012-13, but were able to eventually pull out the win in only one:

In 18 fewer games so far this campaign, the 'Canes have already exceeded last year's total of multi-goal rallies. They've also proved slightly more effective at getting points out of such performances, going 2-4-1, but there's still plenty of room for growth in that regard:

The 'Canes rank 12th in the NHL with a 2-8-2 record when trailing at the second intermission; they fell 24th in the league at 2-16-2 last year.

Moreover, only one team (Vancouver) has more wins than Carolina's six when allowing the game's first goal. The Hurricanes' .286 winning percentage in such scenarios ranks 15th.

This autumn's tenacity is a testament to captain Eric Staal's suddenly prominent never-say-die attitude and the veteran experience of summer additions Andrej Sekera, Ron Hainsey and Nathan Gerbe. Consider Carolina's top offensive producers in those seven comeback games:

With arguably the easiest schedule in the NHL over their remaining 52 games, the 'Canes newfound persistence and patience should provide an advantage not seen since the Erik Cole-dominated clutch finishes of 2010-11. 

Entering a travel-heavy but relatively easy Western road trip, Carolina has a spectacular chance to build on the positive momentum of the past week and perhaps put their rallying confidence to use yet again.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

As the Carolina Hurricanes' 2013-14 season bumps inconsistently along, the team's strong second periods have emerged as the only constant in a hot-and-cold stretch.

The 'Canes have outscored opponents 13-2 in the second periods of the last five games, yet they have walked away with a win in only three of those matches. 

Why? The difference between victory and defeat has become blatantly clear. When the Hurricanes can contain their opponents in the opening and closing frames of the game, they win; when they lose all control for 40 of the game's 60 minutes, they lose.

Stagnant starts and sluggish finishes are now the norm.

But the Hurricanes' unstoppable mid-game explosions are keeping them in contention regardless.

The 'Canes racked up three goals in a four-minute span during the second period in Washington, the difference in an eventual 4-1 victory. Despite the game's decisive final score, the 'Canes tied the Caps 1-1 and were outshot 20-18 in the first and third periods combined.

Tuesday's match was the latest installment in a highly predictable pattern for the 'Canes. Consider their period-by-period score and shot total (in parentheses) in the chart below:

Although likely far from ideal from Kirk Muller's viewpoint, the Hurricanes' predictable nightly roller coaster has still earned six of a possible 10 points during the time span (a 123-point pace over 82 games).

That surprisingly successful output, however, may not hold up as well in Carolina's next stretch of six games.

The 'Canes will play six consecutive Western Conference opponents—five on the road in non-Eastern time zones—over the next 10 days.

It's not a particularly tough run of games, in terms of opponent caliber: Phoenix, Vancouver, Nashville, Calgary and Edmonton all rank eighth or worse in the West at the moment (San Jose being the only exception).

Nonetheless, the 'Canes may finally meet their match in terms of second-period dominance. Five of the six teams rank in the upper half of the NHL in middle-frame scoring. Consider the Hurricanes' and their next half-dozen opponents' goal differential in the second period versus the first and third periods:

Simply put, Carolina's reliance on quick outbursts during the game's midpoint lag may well lose its viability.

Quick starts, both to quell hostile road crowds and also to keep the 'Canes close on the scoreboard, will become a necessity. Clutch finishes, a concept much lacking through the club's first 28 games, will also become crucial.

The Hurricanes' lengthy road trip through the corners of North America will only conclude as a success if the 'Canes can put forth stronger 60-minute efforts on a reliable basis.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

Underperforming Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund may soon make a move to the epicenter of NHL career revivals—the Carolina Hurricanes.

Carolina general manager Jim Rutherford is reportedly negotiating frequently with Calgary GM Jay Feaster in regards to Backlund, a former first-round pick who's never quite panned out in Alberta.

Per Darren Dreger on TSN's Insider Trading:

Teams are calling about Mikael Backlund, no surprise there, specifically the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes are looking for a third line centre as well as a puck moving defenceman. Carolina has made an offer on Backlund but there's no fit there just yet. The Flames also need an age-comparable player in terms of their return.

Backlund, now 24, was picked 24th overall in 2007 by then-Flames GM Darryl Sutter. He's sputtered through portions of six NHL seasons since, however, tallying just 25 goals, 44 assists and a minus-17 record in 193 appearances.

The 6'0", 198-pound Swede has become the classic example of a Europe-to-North America prospect transition failure. Backlund was drafted out of the depths of Swedish junior- and minor-leagues based on perceived talent rather than tangible success, and the risk blew up in Calgary's face.

Backlund's situation was described in an elegant column by Canada.com's George Johnson on Monday:

The market’s crashed. His stock’s bottomed out. Once so rich in promise, so flush with opportunity, only to find himself now, jarringly, starting from scratch; all the collateral he’d built up, vanished.

Pipped, not so terribly long ago, as the No. 1 centre of the future in this organization, if only by process of elimination, a natural fit between Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay, Backlund has watched his status whittled away by a 19-year-old rookie whiz kid, a resurrected 29-year-old playmaker and a hometown Toronto Maple Leaf minor-league cast-off.

Most in Backlund's troubles soon end their career slide by returning to Europe (often for good). But, occasionally, one turns such a rough NHL transition into a late-blossoming stardom.

The Carolina Hurricanes are very familiar with perhaps the best example of that: Jiri Tlusty.

On Dec. 4, 2009, Rutherford acquired Tlusty, the 13th overall selection in 2006, from Toronto in exchange for Phillipe Paradis. Tlusty had struggled through everything from terrible statistics to a photo scandal during his maligned time in Ontario; his value was in the process of falling off a cliff.

Paradis' rights were held only briefly by the Maple Leafs, and the 22-year-old now boasts two points in 16 games for Tampa Bay's AHL affiliate in 2013-14.

Meanwhile, Tlusty is coming off a fifth-place league-wide finish in goals in 2012-13—he tallied 23 in his final 39 games of the campaign—and has emerged as an inconsistent yet undeniably dynamic cornerstone of Carolina's offense.

Backlund could soon become project Tlusty 2.0 in Raleigh.

After a solid, if not eye-opening, 25-point, 73-game campaign in 2010-11, he missed half of Calgary's 2011-12 season with a variety of injuries. He managed 32 appearances in 2012-13, but was far from 100 percent healthy on most nights.

Backlund has remained injury-free this autumn, but his on-ice impact is more inept than ever. A change of scenery is desperately needed.

For the 'Canes, he'd be initially slotted into a bottom-six role. With Carolina's 28th-ranked offense in need of a jolt, however, Backlund would have plenty of opportunity to move up the depth chart later on.

Another positive factor for the Swede are his underlying numbers in 2013-14. Backlund currently ranks third on the bottom-dwelling Flames in Corsi Relative—an impressive showing considering his unlucky 953 PDO.

Backlund is also doing a terrific job advancing the puck in defensive situations. The difference between his 45.3 offensive zone start percentage and 55.0 finish percentage leads the team.

With his trade value at a remarkable all-time low, now is the time for the Hurricanes to make a winning offer and buy on Backlund.

Carolina needs a change. Backlund needs a change. The potential impact when both receive it could be exponential.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.

In an effort to spark a struggling offense, the Carolina Hurricanes are seeking to trade away two valuable role-playing forwards.

To try to improve their No. 23 rank in shots allowed, the 'Canes are looking to swap a rusty shutdown rearguard for a pricey, AHL-buried blue-line liability.

The blatant irrationality of those two concepts, however, seems lost on Carolina's change-thirsty management.

Three of the team's most significant niche-filling players over the past few seasons—forwards Tuomo Ruutu and Jiri Tlusty and defenseman Tim Gleason—have been recently reported as potential trade items.

Per TSN insider Darren Dreger via Twitter last Friday:

Then, per Hockey Night in Canada insider Glenn Healy on Sunday's Hotstove Tonight:

Claude Roussel (Maple Leafs assistant GM) was [at Saturday's Carolina-Boston game] to watch...say, Tim Gleason, who's in the doghouse in Carolina. A John-Michael Liles for Tim Gleason deal might not work; however, they need to add another player to the mix and make it work.

These back-to-back rumors reek of Carolina general manager Jim Rutherford's incurable disease—parochialism.

The 64-year-old has an unmasked tendency to obsess over trading a certain player and unfailingly stick to the decision, even at almost no return. It's happened with Zac Dalpe, Jussi Jokinen, Brian Boucher and Anthony Stewart all in the past year.

Now it may undermine a large part of the Hurricanes' veteran core.

For all of Ruutu, Tlusty and Gleason's important contributions over the last several years, the frustration of a mediocre and frankly unlucky autumn may soon drive each out of Raleigh.

Ruutu has led the 'Canes in hits in three of the past four full regular seasons; he's also just 108 games removed from a career record-shattering 57-point campaign in 2010-11. With two goals now in the past week alone, No. 15—who is still recovering from two hip surgeries earlier in 2013—deserves more time to rediscover his rhythm.

But he might not get to have that.

Tlusty, meanwhile, tied for fifth in the league in goals last spring while scoring 23 in his final 39 appearances of the campaign. His lackluster performance this autumn is doubtless disappointing, but the 25-year-old Czech is historically a slow starter—his stardom last season is by no means an unrepeatable phenomenon.

But he might not get to prove that.

Gleason, while posting some brutal underlying numbers in limited action this season, has traditionally held a vital shutdown role on the Hurricanes' young defense. He's used to facing tough matchups and providing leadership during tough times—things that potential role replacer Brett Bellemore doesn't have experience with. Gleason's presence alone may prove invaluable for the 'Canes down the stretch.

But he might not get to demonstrate that.

The 'Canes have, according to Fox Sports Carolinas' Saturday broadcast, the easiest schedule in the NHL over their remaining 58 games. They also have the potential to be fully healthy—including Anton Khudobin and Alexander Semin—by mid-December.

Nine wins through 24 matches may not look too positive in the cut-and-dry league standings. Nonetheless, Carolina has a plethora of reasons to believe in an upcoming turnaround.

In the current situation, breaking apart and dealing away three critical parts of the club's long-term core would create an entirely unnecessary obstacle at a crucial time in the Hurricanes' season. Such an overhaul could well undermine the structure of the team's roster altogether.

Tuomo Ruutu, Jiri Tlusty and Tim Gleason deserve a longer trial.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.