Re-Grading the 20 Biggest MLB Free Agent Contracts From Last Offseason
The dust is pretty much settled on MLB's 2024-25 free-agent market. Now that Alex Bregman has gotten his, no more big payouts are expected.
So, here's an idea: While we wait for the biggest signings of this winter to make a first impression, what if we freshly assess the biggest deals from last winter?
We're going to grade the 20 biggest signings of the 2023-24 offseason. Each secured a total guarantee of at least $30 million, which actually leads to an overall sample size of 23 if you want to get technical.
Getting from there down to 20 required giving Incompletes to Jung Hoo Lee, Lucas Giolito and Robert Stephenson. Elbow surgeries sidelined Giolito and Stephenson for all of 2024, while Lee played in only 37 games before having shoulder surgery.
There are otherwise honorable mentions worth, er, mentioning. Notably, contracts for Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Teoscar Hernández, Jack Flaherty, Joc Pederson and David Robertson averaged just $17 million and they combined for 16.6 rWAR in 2024. That was more than three whole teams.
The 20 players on the list are grouped according to their grades, which range from F (i.e., a total failure) all the way up to A+ (i.e., a smashing success). Each is meant to assess the return on investment for the team in question.
These Players Get an F
LHP Jordan Montgomery, Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 years, $47.5 million
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks: 4 years, $80 million
Montgomery's deal was a one-year, $25 million pact with a player option for 2025. But since he exercised said option, he's worth including anyway.
As the 32-year-old pitched to a 6.23 ERA in 2024, he can hardly be blamed for taking the $22.5 million for this year. It's also hard to blame the guy for having a rough season in the first place, as he didn't sign until the day after the Diamondbacks had played their 2024 opener on March 28.
At his own behest, the guy to blame is D-backs owner Ken Kendrick. He said this about the Montgomery deal last October:
“Let me say it the best way I can say it: If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy that should be blamed because I brought it to their attention."
“I pushed for it. They agreed to it."
Via Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo
Unfortunately, Rodriguez didn't fare much better for the Snakes in 2024.
A shoulder strain delayed the 31-year-old's debut until August 7, and the 10 starts he made afterward yielded a 5.04 ERA. Further, certain metrics rate his stuff as being in decline.
These Players Get a D
1B Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers: 2 years, $34 million
RHP Marcus Stroman, New York Yankees: 2 years, $37 million
RHP Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants: 4 years, $44 million
3B/1B Jeimer Candelario, Cincinnati Reds: 3 years, $45 million
OF/1B Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs: 3 years, $80 million
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers: 12 years, $325 million
Placing Yamamoto here is arguably too harsh. After all, he had a 3.00 ERA in the regular season and was one of three functional starters for the Dodgers in the playoffs.
Of note, however, is that Yamamoto collected $14 million more than any other player in 2024. Given that, it is a disappointment that he missed nearly three months with a bad shoulder and didn't pitch like a true ace when he was healthy.
Of course, Yamamoto is still just 26 and his contract gives him 11 more years to prove himself. Yet his standing with the Dodgers has already been lessened. He isn't their No. 1, nor is he even their most hyped Japan-born pitcher.
For their parts, Stroman and Hicks had middling seasons in 2024.
The former posted a 95 ERA+ over 154.2 innings, with the latter managing a 94 ERA+ over 109.2 innings. Both are now in awkward situations, as the Yankees don't have a rotation spot for Stroman and Hicks has a seemingly tenuous hold on his spot in the Giants' rotation.
Though Hoskins and Candelario combined to hit 46 home runs in 2024, they also combined for minus-0.9 rWAR. Bellinger did much better, but he was ultimately half as valuable in 2024 (2.2 rWAR) as he had been in 2023 (4.4 rWAR).
That was on a $27.5 million salary, so it's little wonder both that he opted in for 2025 and that the Cubs were willing to give him to the Yankees pretty much for free.
These Players Get a C
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks: 3 years, $42 million
DH Jorge Soler, San Francisco Giants: 3 years, $42 million
LHP Josh Hader, Houston Astros: 5 years, $95 million
Hader did far from his best work in 2024, as he ended up with a 3.80 ERA and was the guy on the mound when the Astros' season effectively ended.
Yet it is worth crediting Hader for the dominant run that he went on between May 9 and August 29. He made 44 appearances in which he limited hitters to a .132 average, and Houston went 37-7 in those games.
Further, the quality of Hader's stuff ticked up a notch in 2024. It'll do for a good sign that the next four years of his deal won't be a total wash.
Though neither Gurriel nor Soler had an especially good year in 2024, Gurriel upped his OPS+ relative to 2024 and Soler was 21 percent better than average.
Soler has been made to play a game of musical chairs, going first from San Francisco to Atlanta in July 2024 and then to the Los Angeles Angels in December.
Yet given how productive Soler was last season, these don't feel like indictments of his ability in the same way that the recent trade of Bellinger does on his. For what it's worth, Soler is projected to lead the Angels in home runs this year.
These Players Get a B
RHP Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals: 2 years, $32 million
LHP Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants: 2 years, $32 million
RHP Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals: 3 years, $75 million
Snell is a much richer man right now, as he opted out of his deal with the Giants and scored a five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers.
It is nonetheless harmless to look back on his time with the Giants and go, "Hmmm, yeah, that's a solid B."
The 32-year-old lefty was a disaster early on, making nine starts with a 9.51 ERA through June. But then he got healthy and ripped off a 1.23 ERA for his last 14 outings, with a no-hitter among them. Not a bad way to balance things out.
Wacha and Gray handled basically the same workload in 2024, with Wacha logging 166.2 innings and Gray falling an out short of that total with 166.1. Each also had an ERA in the 3.00s, with Gray also crossing the 200-strikeout threshold.
Both still occupy prominent places going into 2025. With the Royals, Wacha is one of the three best starters in what was MLB's best rotation in 2024. Gray is the Cardinals' No. 1 starter...at least until he gets traded.
These Players Get an A
RHP Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves: 3 years, $30 million
RHP Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals: 3 years, $45 million
LHP Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs: 4 years, $53.25 million
3B Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants: 3 years, $54 million
RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: 7 years, $172 million
Chapman is another guy with a new deal, as the Giants preempted his opt-out by signing him to a six-year, $151 million extension.
As the 31-year-old has been an up-and-down performer, the new deal carries some risk. But you can't fault the Giants for buying high, as last year marked the third time that Chapman has crossed the 7-rWAR threshold.
Lugo and Nola were among the top workhorses in MLB last season, ranking second and fifth in innings pitched, respectively. They are among the last members of a dying breed in this respect, and thus deserve high marks on that front alone.
This year will be Lugo's age-35 season and Nola's age-32 season, but both are rubber-arm types with the command and varied repertoires to evade the worst harms of Father Time.
At 1.99, López had the second-lowest ERA of any hurler who logged 130 innings in 2024. It was a big win on a big gamble for the Braves, who promptly doubled down with another three-year, $30 million deal for the righty.
Imanaga went through a mid-season slump in which he allowed 35 runs in 25.1 innings between May 29 and June 21. On either side of that, though, was a nine-start run with a 0.84 ERA and a 15-start run with a 2.86 ERA.
The 31-year-old lefty was also sturdy enough to provide 173.1 innings, so he is rightfully positioned to be the Cubs' No. 1 starter in 2025.
This Player Gets an A+
DH Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers: 10 years, $700 million
Ohtani's deal was a win for the Dodgers before he even suited up. He's only costing $2 million annually, which helps alleviate the luxury tax penalties that they will be paying largely as a result of his deal through the 2033 season.
So, that's good. And then there's the whole "First 50/50 Player in MLB History" thing.
In addition to 54 home runs and 59 stolen bases, Ohtani gave the Dodgers 411 total bases, 134 runs and 130 RBI in 2024. He's the third hitter since 2001 to pile up 130-plus runs and RBI, and the first since that same season to tally 400 total bases.
Though Ohtani's shoulder injury limited him in the World Series, he had posted a .934 OPS and three home runs in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Without the first of those homers, the Dodgers might not have escaped the NLDS, much less won their second championship in five years.
In all, there's a case that Ohtani's 2024 season is the best free-agent debut in history. And the Dodgers still have his pitching to look forward to.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.