Southern Miss Football

Discussion is looming about the probable expansions of the Pac-10, Big XII, and Big Ten in what has become college football's largest conference expansion in the sport's history. As these conferences fight to sell the most appealing invites to the teams who want a new home to call their own, where does Conference USA lie in the midst of the chaos?

Conference USA has not been referred to as a conference that is looking to expand its boundaries for the time being. But as the Pac-10, Big XII, Big Ten, and possibly the SEC feel the need to stretch their reign of power, Conference USA, WAC, and the Mountain West Conference have not received any reported invitations to the bargaining table for merging with any of the larger conferences.

In particular, Conference USA is the second smallest conference in the nation with a competitive caliber that does not match any of its sister conferences.

Could Conference USA redeem itself competitively by merging with another conference? Or could the WAC, Mountain West, and Conference USA combine to make a larger and more identifiable conference? 

These are questions that have not been discussed in the open and could be a way to convert what are considered to be "lower-caliber conferences" into a larger and more competitive group of teams.

The more ideal situation for Conference USA would be that it is given an invitation by one of the larger conferences like the Big XII, which would generate a larger revenue stream for universities and more television broadcasts. Conference USA may not receive offers from the SEC (although Kansas might be picked up) or the Pac-10, but there could still be a chance that the Big XII or WAC could salvage some teams in the mix. 

Southern Miss (-1.5) 26 LOUISVILLE 19

Southern Miss will be without starting quarterback Austin Davis, which will most likely have a significant affect on their offense, but the Eagles are actually a much better defensive team than most people think. Southern Miss has allowed just 4.2 yppl in 5 games against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense and Louisville rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively even after adjusting for the likely return of starting quarterback Justin Burke, who missed last week's 10-35 loss to Pitt.

Martevious Young takes over Davis under center for Southern Miss and his ability to throw the ball has always been in question and is why he's been passed over as the starter. However, Young is a good runner and the Eagles are also blessed with running back Damion Fletcher, who has run for over 5000 yards in his great career. Even if Young is 1.3 yards per pass play worse than Davis

I would still have Southern Miss with a profitable 55% chance of covering the spread in this game and the Eagles apply to a 100-39-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on their their strong defense and good rushing attack. I'll consider Southern Miss a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less.

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Southern Miss (-10.0) 37 UAB 23

Southern Miss will be without star RB Damion Fletcher and star WR DeAndre Brown tonight, but they still have enough offense to score a good number of points on a bad UAB defense that's allowed 6.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average only 5.0 yppl against an average team.

Southern Miss is still an average offensive teams even without their 2 stars and the Eagles' defense has been very good in allowing just 4.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. That includes holding a very good Kansas offense to just 5.2 yppl last week.

UAB has a good offense that has generated 6.3 yppl and rates at 0.8 yppl better than average but the Southern Miss defense is also 0.8 yppl better than average.

My math favored Southern Miss by 17 points with Brown and Fletcher and I make it 14 points without them.

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Everyone is looking at their BCS Busters this season. The usual suspects are there Boise State, Utah, BYU, and TCU.

There is no question that the four teams above should be in the conversation for the BCS. I would like to throw a team’s hat in to the ring.

I am talking about the University of Southern Mississippi down in Hattiesburg and a member of C-USA. Sure a lot of people think the Pirates of East Carolina will be the class of C-USA and Skip Holtz has done a great job.

Still I will give you the reasons to believe in Southern Miss.

Year two under head coach Larry Fedora

Everywhere Fedora has gone as an offensive coordinator the offense has been one of the best in conference and in the country. No matter if he was at Middle Tennessee, Florida, or Oklahoma State.

In 2008 Fedora replaced Jeff Bower as head coach of Southern Miss. The offense made the switch the spread offense last season.

All Southern Miss offensive did was average 434.5 yards a game and scored 30.7 points a game. Now its year two under Fedora’s potent offense and the Eagles could be even better.

Sixteen Returning Starters

The Golden Eagles return 8 starters on offensive and eight starters on defense. If a team is going make a run at a BCS slot you have to have plenty of starters back on both sides of the ball.

That is eight starters from an offense that ranked 18th in the nation last season. USM also returns nine starters from a defense that ranked 30th in the nation last season.

While the stats from last season might not scary anyone just looking at them, but remember if Fedora can coach them up they could be better this season.  Anyone who does not know USM well I can tell you this they always have a tough defense.

Southern Miss has several players in the NFL from the defensive side of the ball. Even if the offense struggles at times the defense will keep the Eagles in every game.

The Three Amigos: Davis, Fletcher, and Brown

Southern Miss returns what quite possibly could be the best three offensive players in C-USA. Those players are Austin Davis at quarterback, Damion Fletcher at running back and DeAndre Brown at wide receiver.

Davis got the start at quarterback as a redshirt freshman last season. He took his lumps as he had difficult games during the season.

Even with the struggles Davis played well in Fedora’s spread offense. Last season, Davis threw for 3,134 yards with 23 passing touchdowns and nine more rushing.  In his freshman year Davis had a 128.67 passer rating.

At the end of the season Davis helped turn things around and helped USM reach a bowl game. Southern Miss finished the season by winning their last five games including the bowl.

As long as Davis does not have a sophomore slump he should be even better in his second year.

Fletcher has been one of the best running backs in Southern Miss history. While his 2007 season was his best Fletcher has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons.

This season should give Fletcher a lot of motivation.  After some legal trouble for discharging a fire arm Fletcher got a second chance and needs to prove it was the right thing on the field as well as off.

Fletcher has rushed for 4,287 yards and 36 touchdowns over the past three seasons. He had 1,313 yards on 219 carries with 10 touchdowns in 2008.

The last reason Fletcher could have a good season is it is his last at USM. Fletcher will want to put his name at the top of the Eagles record books for rushing. Plus the NFL will come a calling after this season.

DeAndre Brown was having one of the best freshman seasons for a wide out in the country.  Until the first quarter of the R+L Carriers Bowl when he broke his leg very reminiscent to Tyrone Prothro of Alabama.

He set the USM season record for receptions with 67 and yards with 1,117 and 12 touchdowns.  Brown was named C-USA Freshman of the year and was a first team pick All C-USA.

Brown was nearly unstoppable all season long a wide receiver for the Golden Eagles. If he can come back and be as dominate this season as he was last season USM will have plenty of opportunities to put up huge numbers on offense.

The offense will not have to do it all with three starters returning on the defensive line and all four starters returning in the defensive secondary. Plus the Eagles return Justin Estes in the kicking game.

The Schedule

The Golden Eagles are going into 2009 with 15 consecutive winning seasons. USM has gone to a bowl game for six straight years.

While the home opener against Alcorn State should not be a test there are some games for the Eagles to make a statement. The Eagles will get a chance to make their mark in and out of conference.

The first statement game comes at home September 19th against the ACC’s Virginia Cavaliers. The Eagles need to win this game to prove they can play with the major conferences.

The biggest game of the year will come the following week on the road against Kansas. If the Jayhawks can make noise in the Big-12 North and the Big-12 overall will only help the Eagles.

The last out of conference game to make a statement will come against Louisville of the Big East. While the Cardinals are down a win over a Big East team has to help.

In conference the Eagles get a chance at the best of C-USA. USM plays on the road versus Houston and East Carolina.

Southern Miss also gets a very good Tulsa team at home. If the Eagles can get big wins out of these three teams it will make their case for the BCS only stronger.

The schedule might not look like an SEC schedule it still has some tough games. The Eagles will have to finish the season undefeated to even be in the conversation.

Southern Miss could have a season to remember in 2009. The Eagles have the talent to win every game on the schedule this season.

Playing in a state with two other SEC teams sometimes makes USM the red headed stepchild of Mississippi. If the Golden Eagles can win all their games and get a little help they could be the first team not only from C-USA to reach the BCS but from Mississippi as well.

This summer, the National Football Post is breaking down every team in the Football Bowl Subdivision(formerly known as Division I-A) to identify players who could warrant interest from NFL teams in the 2010 draft.

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles finished with a record of 7-6 last season and will lean heavily on the legs of senior running back Damion Fletcher if they hope to compete for a Conference USA title in 2009.

Offense

Damion Fletcher: No. 25, RB, 5-10, 178

An undersized back who lacks ideal bulk and possesses a thin lower half. Isn’t real explosive and lacks the straight-line speed to outrun defenders at the second level.

APDamion Fletcher

Displays good vision and at the line of scrimmage and runs hard through the hole. Reaches his top speed quickly and exhibits the body control to remain balanced out of his lateral cuts and instantly attack up field. Does a nice job keeping his pad level low when changing directions, but he isn’t real shifty in space.

Lacks the agility to consistently make a man miss at full speed. Doesn’t possesses the power in his lower half to break tackles and is easily tripped up in space.

Is a coordinated athlete who does a nice job adjusting to the throw in the pass game and plucking the football with his hands. Showcases good footwork as a receiver and has the ability to cleanly get out of his breaks.

Impression: Displays natural vision and has a good feel for game, but simply lacks the size/speed numbers to be much of a threat at the next level.

Defense

Anthony Gray: No. 95, DT, 6-0, 314

Does a nice job getting his hands under the pad level of opposing linemen on contact and driving his way into the backfield. Is short and plays with natural leverage because of it, however, he isn’t a real natural bender. Has the ability to generate even more power from his lower half if he learns to keep his base down through the play.

Showcases natural body control on runs away from his frame and has the ability to shuffle his feet through slide-down blocks and disengage toward the ball. Exhibits good straight-line speed for the position and displays the range to make plays in pursuit.

Possesses good awareness off the snap and gets into opposing linemen quickly. Generates a strong initial jolt on contact and has the power to push the pocket.

However, he struggles shedding blocks in the pass game and doesn’t possess the balance to quickly disengage when working his way up the field. Lacks ideal short-area quickness and is more of a bull-rush threat.

Impression: A short, stocky interior lineman who displays good athleticism for the position and can push the pocket inside. Isn’t a real sudden pass rusher and needs to learn to play with a lower base. However, he has the potential to develop into a rotational lineman at the next level.

C.J. Bailey: No. 20, CB, 5-10, 190

APC.J. Bailey

Struggles to sit into his stance in man coverage and has a tendency to get bent over at the waist. Struggles with his initial burst because of it and lacks the type of closing speed to make up for a false step.

Gets too mechanical with his footwork and is consistently forced to gather himself in order to remain balanced; gives up a lot of separation underneath because of it. Doesn’t look comfortable when asked to turn and run with receivers and has a tendency to get grabby out of his transition.

Begins to open up his hips prematurely and although he does exhibit good straight-line speed down the field, he lacks the footwork to quickly change directions. Struggles when asked to play with his back to the ball and fails to quickly locate the throw.

Impression: Struggled vs. better competition and doesn’t look real comfortable in his drop. Gets erratic with his footwork and lacks the fluidity or balance to stay with NFL receivers in man-coverage.

Eddie Hicks: No. 18, FS, 6-2, 185

A tall, lean safety who struggles generating power from his base when asked to break down as tackler. Is more of a drag-down guy. Lacks physicality and doesn’t seem real interested in taking on blocks.

Is consistently sealed away from the football and doesn’t exhibit the power or willingness to fight his way toward the action. Isn’t real instinctive reading his run/pass keys and is slow to diagnose the action in front of him.

Isn’t fluid in his drop and struggles to cleanly get out of his breaks in coverage. Gets too leggy and has a tendency to become overextended with his footwork. His feet are all over the place when asked to change directions.

Lacks a first-step burst and is more of a strider who takes a while to get up to speed. Doesn’t consistently take proper angles toward the ball and can be out-paced in tight areas.

Impression: Possesses a long frame, but lacks the power or fluidity to hold up in any area of the game at the next level.

By RunTellMatt



Every summer I make do with the monotony and the boring, college football-less Saturdays by doing my best to scout all 120 FBS teams. Plus, as a gambling man and a rabid college football fan, I like to know what I’m talking about.

In this 12-part feature, I’ll break down each conference, including the independents, ranking the teams in order of how good I perceive them to be heading into the season, complete with last year’s W-L record and my predictions for each team’s 2009 W-L record.

Feel free to comment on what a splendid job you think I’ve done and how my analysis and forecast is dead-on. Or you can disagree, whatever.

In this ninth installment: Conference America



12. UCF Knights | Last Year: 4-8 | My 2009 Prediction: 1-11

During HC George O’Leary’s first five years with UCF, the Knights have had quite the roller coaster ride alternating winning and losing seasons. This pattern, if continued, would call for the Knights to have a winning season this year, but O’Leary says the streak has to change, and he may get his wish.

The OFF, which returns 9, was just awful last year posting a conference-worst 16.1 points/game with 230 yards of total OFF, also good for dead last. QB Rob Calabrese, who retains his starting job this season, was equally bad last year as a true freshman completing an atrocious 39.2% of his passes with 7 TD’s to 5 INT’s.

The entire WR corps returns intact as do the RB’s, but the backfield will need to produce better than 3 yards/carry if the Knights are going to have any sort of a ground game. The O-line lacks experience, with just 28 combined career starts (tied for 111th nationally), as well as depth, considering 2 former D-linemen have moved to the unit.

Despite all the concerns on OFF, the DEF, returning 6, is actually more of a question mark this season, particularly in the secondary where they lose a combined 186 career starts and 50 career INT’s. This unit has gone from the most experienced in the country last year to what could be the least experienced this year. While they may improve upon last year’s 4-win total, I think the Knights will be hard-pressed to earn another bowl and continue their alternating winning-losing streak.




11. Rice Owls | Last Year: 10-3 | My 2009 Prediction: 2-10

This year’s Owls team reminds me a lot of Ball State’s: coming off a fantastic season, led by a school-record setting QB and several OFF weapons that are all gone and consequently entering a serious rebuilding phase.

The OFF loses nearly all the skill players of note, including their 2 most capable RB’s and most importantly, QB Chase Clement who was ridiculously good last year completing 66.5% of his passes for 4119 yards, 44 TD’s, an incredible 7 INT’s in 490 pass attempts, as well as 693 net rushing yards and 12 more scores. Essentially, he was the Rice OFF and now, sadly, he’s gone.

Also gone (to the NFL) are a pair of 1300+ yard WR’s in James Casey and Jarett Dillard, who ranked 1st and 2nd respectively in the conference for total receiving yards (1329, 1310). There are only a total of 4 returning starters on OFF leaving voids everywhere, including at the O-line where 3 starters exit.

The DEF will be relied on heavily this year as they return 9 starters including all their top tacklers, although overall they weren’t great last year allowing 452 total yards/game.

The schedule does not bode well for a winning season as they start off with 3 straight road games at UAB, TX Tech and OK State.

Despite going 10-3 last year, all of the star power is gone from the OFF and the Owls simply won’t be able to just outscore opponents like they did last year, as evidenced by wins of 42-35, 45-40, 49-44, 38-31 and 56-42. As a matter of fact, I’m calling for Rice to start the season 0-7 and continue their 4-year streak of alternating winning and losing seasons.

10. Tulane Green Wave | Last Year: 2-10 | My 2009 Prediction: 5-7

The seat is warming up for 3rd-year HC Bob Toledo as his team is heading in the wrong direction going just 2-10 last year after a 4-8 season the year prior.

This year’s Green Wave team returns 7 starters on OFF, including the top rushers, 3 of the top 4 WR’s and the 2 top QB’s who saw time last year. Despite returning RB Andre Anderson, who led the conference with 123.4 rush yards/game last year, the Green Wave OFF was only able to muster a measly 16.7 points/game, just barely second from the bottom in the conference (UCF - 16.6 points/game). Anderson was in line for a fantastic season posting 864 yards and 7 scores before suffering a season-ending collar bone injury in the 7th game.

It’s still uncertain who will start at QB, Joe Kemp or Kevin Moore, both of whom were mostly inconsistent last year, but most likely they’ll both see time again, and will work behind a line that loses the top 2 linemen from last year, 4-year starting C Michael Parenton and NFL draft pick LT Troy Kropog.

The DEF returns 6 and loses 3 of their top 4 tacklers, but overall should improve upon last year’s numbers. What Tulane would like to do is be able to rely on their DEF to keep games close, run ball control with their star RB Anderson giving time for the QB’s to develop as better passers.

It remains to be seen if their objective can or will go as planned, but I certainly believe the Green Wave have enough this season to post their best record of the Bob Toledo era.




9. UAB Blazers | Last Year: 4-8 | My 2009 Prediction: 5-7

The Blazers return 18 starters with all 11 on OFF, including QB Joe Webb, who was 1 of only 2 QB’s in the FBS last year to rush for 1000+ yards and throw for 2000+ yards for the season, the other being Colin Kaepernick of Nevada.

Needless to say, the entire WR corps returns as does a good stable of RB’s. The O-line is the 5th most experienced in the FBS with 108 combined career starts.

The biggest question mark for the Blazers this year is on DEF where they return 7. The biggest loss to the DEF is in the secondary as they lose CB Kevin Sanders, who tied for best in the nation with 7 INT’s, and of the top 4 tacklers from last year, 3 are gone, 2 of which were safeties.

The schedule is difficult for the Blazers and includes 7 road games with the toughest games being at Troy, Mississippi and East Carolina. Although they only won 4 games last year, UAB was competitive and had chances in several others.

It’s hard to understand why the media picked UAB to finish 11th of 12 teams in the conference as this is by far the best Blazers team in recent memory. I don’t believe UAB will be underrated for long, though, and I do think they should easily exceed their 4-win total of last year.




8. Memphis Tigers | Last Year: 6-7 | My 2009 Prediction: 5-7

Tommy West is currently the longest tenured HC in Conf. USA going into his 9th season with the program. The journey has been an erratic one with drastic swings in the W-L column from year to year, so it’s always tough to get a read on the Tigers. However, this year’s Tiger team looks to be very solid with real potential to surprise.

Despite only returning 5 starters, the OFF gets back nearly all of their skill players, including a pair of good SR WR’s, SR QB Arkelon Hall and SR RB Curtis Steele, who rushed for 1223 yards at 5.6 yards/carry and added 7 scores. The OFF also adds Miami U transfer, SR TE DajLeaon Farr.

The question mark on OFF is at the O-line where they lose 4 starters and return just 28 combined career starts, making Memphis the other team tied for 111th nationally.

The DEF returns 7 and will be aided by an infusion of talented transfers who had to sit out last year.

One problem with the Tigers team of last year is that they factored as many points/game as they allowed (27.2), which might explain why the they were in 7 games decided by a touchdown or less.

The schedule is difficult as they get every team in their conference picked to finish ahead them, in addition to games at Tennessee and home vs. Mississippi to start the season. Even though they have a difficult schedule, Memphis, with all the senior skill players and an improved, more experienced DEF, is my dark horse for the Conf. USA East title.




7. Marshall Thundering Herd | Last Year: 4-8 | My 2009 Prediction: 6-6

Head Coach Mark Snyder, now in his 5th season, has yet to produce a winning record with Marshall and is no doubt on the hot seat. With 16 returning starters, 8 from both side, Snyder has his most experienced team yet and the opportunity to finally earn a bowl appearance.

The QB position is a 4-man race and includes Mark Cann, who started 11 games last season, as well as a couple highly-touted JUCO transfers. The WR corps is uncertain, but in the backfield is 1000+ yard rusher, Darius Marshall, who averaged 4.9 yards/carry last year. The O-line led the conference last season with just 12 sacks allowed, but loses 2 starters.

The DEF front 7 will be a strength of the team with a talented and deep D-line, including SR DE Albert McClellan, and a solid LB unit led by the 2006 Conf. USA DEF POY and leading tackler from last year, SR MLB Mario Harvey. The secondary is fairly young with 3 sophomores starting, but one of which being a potential rising star in CB DeQuan Bembry.

The schedule isn’t too bad as Marshall misses both Houston and Tulsa from the West, but also travels to both VT and WVU. There is several seemingly middle-of-the-pack teams in Conf. USA this year, Marshall being one of them, so it’s difficult to say what the final W-L record may look like at this point, but that also means there’s several games on the schedule that are up in the air. However, I think with stars on every unit on the team to rally around, the Thundering Herd will come together and produce their first winning season since 2004.




6. SMU Mustangs | Last Year: 1-11 | My 2009 Prediction: 6-6

Don’t let the 1-11 record of last year fool you, the Mustangs are a much better team and may just pull a Minnesota this year (side note: Minny went 1-11 in ‘07 and followed it up in ‘08 with a 7-1 start but finished 7-6). Okay, so the Mustangs, in all likelihood, won’t be going 7-1 to start the season, but they’ll certainly be far more competitive and post a significantly better win total than 1.

HC June Jones, who was wildly successful with mid-level talent at Hawaii, fully committed to rebuilding his Mustangs team when he took over last year by opting for freshmen, as opposed to experienced vets, to run his run-and-shoot OFF. That decision, while resulting in the 1-11 season, will pay off this year as 16 starters return, with 8 being from the OFF who’ll be that much more familiar with his unconventional approach.

The biggest beneficiary of that move may be QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who as a true freshman last year completed 57.6% of his passes for 2865 yards and 24 TD’s, but his 23 INT’s was worst in the nation. The O-line may be partly to blame for the amount of INT’s as the 4 sophomores starting this year were redshirt freshmen last year and may not have provided adequate time.

The DEF gets 6 of the top 7 tacklers back and should do better than the conference-worst 38.2 points/game they allowed last year. The schedule is really not bad and coupled with a vastly improved Mustangs team, I think they’ll reach their first bowl game since 1984.

5. Tulsa Golden Hurricane | Last Year: 11-3 | My 2009 Prediction: 6-6

For the first time in school history, Tulsa posted an 11-win season, but failed to capitalize on all of their star power by winning a conference title. The OFF put up a ridiculous 47.2 points/game, best in the conference, but loses all three top performers including, WR Brennan Marion, who totaled 1112 yards with 8 scores, RB Tarrion Adams, who rushed for 1523 yards with 14 scores and, most significantly, QB David Johnson who completed 64.5% of his passes for 4059 yards, 46 TD’s,18 INT’s and 3 rushing TD’s.

The OFF returns just 5 and will start just 2 seniors. There’s a 3-way race for the starting QB spot, but the O-line is a big question mark as the unit brings a combined 45 career starts, good for 98th in the nation, so whomever wins the QB job may not be able to put up the same type of numbers that Johnson did.

The DEF returns 8 and looks to be in much better shape led by SR MLB Mike Bryan, who last season had 119 tackles, 10.5 for a loss.

The schedule is daunting as Tulsa starts the season with 4 out of the first 5 games on the road including at Oklahoma. Tulsa also faces 2 of the other top conference teams on the road, at UTEP and at Southern Miss, as well as home games against Boise St, Houston and East Carolina.

With so much OFF firepower missing and a difficult schedule, I don’t see Tulsa making it three straight years with double digit wins.




4. East Carolina Pirates | Last Year: 9-5 | My 2009 Prediction: 8-4

The Pirates have had a huge target on their backs ever since starting the 2008 season by knocking off both VT and WVU, both of whom were ranked at the time. With 9 players on OFF, 7 on DEF, nearly all the skill players and 5 of their top 6 tacklers returning, the target has grown along with the national attention.

The pirates are loaded with experience all the way down to the SR punter and kicker. The OFF will be led by SR QB Patrick Pinkney, who completed a respectable 61.4% of his passes for 2675 yards with 13 TD’s to just 7 INT’s.

The DEF was fantastic last year allowing a conference-best 21.1 points/game, and it’s only going to be better this year with 7 seniors and 3 juniors adding plenty of experience. The DEF will be led by FS Van Eskridge, who totaled 97 tackles and 7 pass defends, and DE CJ Wilson, who led the conference (tied with Philip Hunt of Houston) in tackles for a loss with 18.5.

The schedule’s difficulty is around medium, but has 4 difficult games including at WVU, at NC, home against VT and home against Southern Miss to finish the season. They do also play Rice and Tulsa, but both those teams lost their star QB’s from last year and as a result won’t be the same.

The final game of the season at home against Southern Miss could potentially decide the Conf. USA East champions. Fortunately for the Pirates, they get home field advantage, and if healthy, have an excellent chance to win that game and the East title.




3. UTEP Miners | Last Year: 5-7 | My 2009 Prediction: 9-3

The Miners’ OFF did a good job of scoring last year putting up 32.9 points/game, but unfortunately the DEF simply gave up more by allowing 37 points/game. This has been the story the last 3 years making for 3 straight losing seasons.

The DEF’s 37 points allowed/game and 469 yards of total OFF allowed/game ranked 2nd from the bottom in the conference just ahead of SMU(38.2, 480). Those stats should be improved this year by the return of 7 starters, as well as S Braxton Amy who was lost for the season last year with an ACL injury.

The year’s OFF returns 8 and will again be led by JR QB Trevor Vittatoe who, as a redshirt freshmen, threw for 3274 yards at a 58.9 completion percentage and 33 scores to just 9 INT’s (also better numbers than Jevan Sneed-see below). Vittatoe will get back his 2 top WR’s in Kris Adams and Jeff Moturi, and will further be helped by an experienced O-line made up of all JR’s and SR’s combining for 86 career starts (25th most in FBS).

UTEP definitely has a favorable schedule with the 3 toughest challenges being in the first 5 games at home vs. KS, at TX and back home vs. Houston, after which I think the Miners could potentially win out.

It could be a rocky start for the Miners, but they’ll still have the opportunity to dominate their conference schedule and win the Conf. USA West.




2. Houston Cougars | Last Year: 8-5 | My 2009 Prediction: 10-2

There is big expectations this year in Houston as the Cougars return nearly all their star skill players of a year ago that combined to produce 40.6 points/game and 563 yards of total OFF.

Two of those stars include Conf. USA OFF POY, Case Keenum, who totaled an eye-popping 5020 yards at a 67.4 completion percentage with 44 scores to just 11 INT’s and 7 rushing TD’s, and the current Conf. USA Freshman of the Year, RB Bryce Beall, who rushed for nearly 1300 yards at an incredible 6.3 yards/carry average with 17 scores, 13 of which on the ground.

Keenum only loses his 2nd leading WR, but returns everyone else, including his top target, Tyron Carrier, who caught for over 1000 yards with 9 scores.

So, all those expectations are certainly justified from an OFF standpoint, but I feel they should be tempered by the reality of just 4 returning starters to the DEF that was just awful last year.

The DEF returns 4 and must replace their entire D-line, including the Conf. USA DEF POY, DE Phillip Hunt who tallied an impressive 14 sacks last year.

Some big advantages in the Cougars’ schedule are that they miss East Carolina, who was picked to win the East by the media, and they also get a home game with Southern Miss, who I picked to not only with the East, but the conference as well.

The biggest reason I think Southern Miss has the edge is that they’re a more balanced team with a much better DEF, and although their stats weren’t as gaudy, the Golden Eagles’ OFF is just as potent. Houston’s OFF will be dominate all year, but will it be enough to compensate for their lack of DEF?




1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles | Last Year: 7-6 | My 2009 Prediction: 10-2

The Golden Eagles enter the season riding a 5 game win streak and with 3 straight home games against Alcorn St (an FCS team), UCF and Virginia, they look to make it at least 8 straight. The first real test will be on the road in the 4th contest against Kansas. Overall, the schedule is very mild as there isn’t any games on the schedule the Golden Eagles cannot win.

The OFF put up 30.6 points/game last year and should easily exceed that figure this year with the return of QB Austin Davis, who as a redshirt freshman, put up fantastic numbers including a 57.5% completion rate, 3128 passing yards, 23 TD’s, 8 INT’s, 508 rush yards and 9 rushing TD’s. Did I mention he was just a redshirt freshman? Better numbers than Jevan Sneed and yet no one outside of Conf. USA has heard of him. Maybe if the conference had a $2 billion contract with ESPN like the SEC, Davis would have been glorified and hyped all summer long as well. Okay, I’m getting off subject, but the CFB world needs to know the facts.

The OFF also welcomes back a 1000+ yard rusher in SR RB Damion Fletcher (1313, 10 TD’s) and a 1000+ yard receiver in DeAndre Brown (1117, 12 TD’s).

The DEF returns 9 and should be just as solid as the OFF, particularly in the secondary and at the D-line, both of which return pretty much intact. The biggest loss on DEF is in the LB unit which loses the team's top 2 tacklers.

With 19 of the 22 starters retuning from both sides, including nearly all the OFF weapons, and a favorable schedule, it’s not unthinkable for the Golden Eagles to put together their first undefeated season ever* (*or at least as far back as I could find). Nonetheless, Southern Miss is my stand-alone favorite to win the West and the Conference USA title.

I want to be in Boise, Idaho on September 12. 

That’s when the Broncos of Boise State will have their first chance to win their 100th game since 2000. Granted, they would have to have beaten preseason hype-machine Oregon on opening day but I make a habit of never underestimating Idaho’s best.

The college football landscape continues to evolve with on-field competitive parity and off-field recruiting diversity. Because of that it's the right time to look closer at which conference and which programs could rise above their middle class standing and begin to challenge the best of the Mountain West and Western Athletic Conference.

Welcome to Conference USA. It’s time to load up the RV and make a little road trip east to Greenville, North Carolina and south to Hattiesburg, Mississippi. It’s time for ECU and USM to plague the BCS in the tradition of the MWC and WAC.

East Carolina

The formula for mid-major success is to recruit the heck out of it, coach the talent out of it, and revolutionize the game through it.  It doesn’t hurt when “it” is a respected winning program with a history of quaint and commendable bowl appearances.

At ECU “it” all starts with Skip Holtz. But anyone who knows a Holtz knows that they don’t do quaint and commendable.

I’m quick to admit it—I have a certain affection for the Holtz family. I’ve read father Lou’s Wins, Losses, and Lessons four times. I nervously pick grass when I’m directing traffic at our Sunday “used-to-be-or-never-was” touch football games. I spent three months of my eighth grade year talking with a lisp before my father finally threatened to make me homeless.

Jocularity aside, Coach Holtz has the first part of the formula in place with a university in the middle of an ideal recruiting nuclei. ECU sits three hours south of the tidewater area, an hour east of the North Carolina triangle, and not too far north of Atlanta and Florida to pull in respectable three-star recruits from each respective hot spot. 

A few of those athletes evolved into offensive stars like Patrick Pinckney and Chris Johnson during first years of the Coach Holtz era. Others have turned into legit defensive players like 09’ returning linebacker Nick Johnson (102 tackles in ’08), senior free safety Van Eskridge (97 tackles), and senior front men C.J. Wilson (70 tackles and 10.5 sacks) and Jay Ross (5 sacks, 4.5 tackles for a loss).

But it always comes back to Skip Holtz. Regarded as a “players coach” he inserts young players (51 lettermen return for 2009), emphasizes speed and toughness on defense (just 333 total yards allowed per game in ’08), and possesses that rare ability to mix a family atmosphere with the discipline of a top program. 

With that approach in place Holtz has pioneered a handful of shocking victories in recent years. The Pirates beat Virginia Tech and West Virginia in 2008 and edged North Carolina in 2007 before stunning the aforementioned benchmark program, Boise State, in a memorable 41-38 Hawaii Bowl.

Without fear, Coach Holtz and ECU scheduled FCS power Appalachian State and road trips to WVU and UNC for 2009. Two big wins and the successful navigation of an advantageous CUSA schedule and East Carolina could pirate the BCS.

Enhanced recruiting, a dominant head man at the helm, an innovative defense, and the top rusher, receiver, passer, and tackler back for 2009; the Pirates are middle class no more.

Southern Mississippi

Much like the rise of Utah, TCU, and BYU in the Mountain West conference, Conference USA can watch the rise of both East Carolina and Southern Mississippi in the next decade.

Stop the presses. Hasn’t Southern Miss always been good? 10 straight winning seasons under Jim Bowers? Four CUSA championships? Bret Favre? What’s different? What makes USM a real top 25 threat now?

Nationally recognized recruiting and a revolutionary offensive approach in Hattiesburg are a good start.

Southern Miss has put together four straight top CUSA classes according to Rivals. They were ranked No. 37 nationally in 2008 thanks to five-star coup DeAndre Brown, now one of the top wide receivers in the country. Coming off a broken leg in last years New Orleans Bowl, Brown was still named to the Belitnikoff watch list for the top receiver award in the country for the upcoming season.

In addition to Brown, USM added seven four-star players from 2007 to 2009. Head coach Larry Fedora now has the foundation for a tremendous run in CUSA and in the national race for January attention.

Fedora, who replaced the successful Jeff Bowers (119-83-1 in 17 seasons) in 2008, brought his innovative version of the spread offense to the underclassmen talents of quarterback Austin Davis (3128 yards and 23 TD in ’08), Brown (1117 receiving and 12 TD’s), and back Damion Fletcher (1347 rushing and 10 TD’s). The result was a solid 7-6, a bowl victory, and a 2009 returning line-up that includes 10 players on offense and nine on defense.

The talent-rich recruiting landscape Southern Miss draws from includes traditional SEC states like Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana, as well as Mississippi. Coach Fedora’s recruiting success proves that he can get off the porch and run with the big dogs of the deep south. The result has been a Golden Eagle offense that is high-flying, abundantly skilled, and on par with SEC programs like Arkansas and South Carolina and miles ahead of the likes of Auburn and Mississippi State.

With that offense in place, a horde of stars returning, and an enhanced degree of national attention Southern Miss is a program primed for the spotlight. A 10 win season and the dream of a BCS bowl are both possible for Southern Mississippi. 

A Boise-like decade of program excellence and a new era of systematic challenges to the BCS establishment are coming straight out of Greenville and Hattiesburg. East Carolina and Southern Mississippi are ready to rise.

The 2009 college football season will kick off in a little over a month. To make the time go a little faster, I have been counting down my top 50 teams one team at a time.

No. 37  Cincinnati Bearcats

No. 36  SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES

Since arriving in Hattiesburg, by way of Stillwater, Larry Fedora, has enlivened the imagination of a proud fan base. His "sound the attack" command has become a catch phrase used by players and fans alike.

Fedora endured a rough opening, but the program started to click last November, capping a season-ending five-game winning streak with a comeback win in the New Orleans Bowl.

It was exactly the injection of momentum that Fedora needed heading into the off-season and although there’s plenty of room for improvement on both sides of the ball, the Golden Eagles look to be heading in the right direction.

"We are a year ahead of where we were at this time last season. The new guys have already started to pick [the system] up from the guys who have experience."

Fedora's no-huddle spread offense averaged 433 yards and 30 points a  game last season and will certainly be better with another year in the system.

With Austin Davis at quarterback, Damion Fletcher running the ball, and DeAndre Brown (assuming he’s healthy) streaking down the sidelines, even the best Conference USA defenses will be pushed.

The offensive line returns three starters and some experienced backups after helping the Golden Eagles set school marks for total offense, passing yards and first downs in 2008.

The defense, under coordinator Todd Bradford, was shredded in September and October, but yielded an average of only 12 points, created more turnovers, and didn't allow more than 100 yards rushing to any opponent over the final five games.

Bradford has the parts to keep rolling, but will have to do so without linebacker extraordinaire Gerald McRath, who chose to leave early for the NFL draft. Filling McRath's spot in the middle will be sophomore Korey Williams, who has considerable upside and an opportunity to make a ton of plays.

The defensive line, the Achilles’ heel a year ago, will be led by junior Anthony Gray, a ferocious penetrator and one of the strongest members of the team. Gray’s partner on the inside will be senior Rolando Barragan.

Roshaad Byrd, who has made 23 appearances as a starter and a reserve throughout his career and Deddrick Jones, a first-time letter-winner in 2008 will form the bookends.

If the front four can mount some kind of a pass rush, few teams will throw on a secondary that found its groove last November, and will keep getting better in 2009.

Andre Watson and C.J. Bailey are back at the corners and three year starter Eddie Hicks returns off a second team All-Conference USA year.

Fedora believes the program has the players in place to contend for the school's first outright league championship since 2003.

"We understand who the players are and what we have this year, where as last year we were trying to figure it all out. Throughout the season we tailored the offense to our guys and what they can do. Now, we can just help them get better and better."

The Golden Eagles will most certainly need to get better. The schedule includes tough non-conference dates with Virginia, Kansas and Louisville, as well as conference match-ups with Central Florida, Houston, Tulsa, and East Carolina.

Sound the attack!

UP NEXT: The Big 12 checks back in at No. 35. Can this Big 12 North team keep it up?

DeAndre Brown, the nation's leading freshman wide receiver last season recently did something we hear about all to often. Keep in mind that he is recovering from one of the most horrific injuries in recent history (those of you with weak stomachs need not watch). When I first saw this video last year, my first thought was that he might not play ever again. He literally broke his leg completely in half.

I have been keeping tabs on him and it is great to hear that his rehab is progressing well. You want to see players like this play, and be successful. Brown has great talent and obviously he is fun to watch.

Nevertheless, Brown recently made a mistake. He decided it would be a good idea to go shoot some hoops. We see this all to often—star athlete gets hurt playing a sport that he, well, does not play for the university. I'm sure Brown is an above average basketball player, but you owe it to your teammates and coaching staff to fully recover first.

This setback is thankfully not a big one. Sources are saying that he will be in a boot for at least a week but should recover fully. He might miss the team's first game but should be on pace to start the second.

Hopefully, this is yet again another reminder to players out there. I have no problem with a fully healthy player shooting some hoops, even if he were to sprain his ankle or suffer any other minor setback. The problem here is that Brown had suffered a major injury. He was the most productive freshman receiver in the nation last season.

Their are certainly times to have fun and times to get to work. Rehabilitating properly and preparing yourself for the upcoming season is one of those times to get to work. All being said, Brown should be ready to play almost a full season, and saying that after seeing the video is amazing. I certainly wish him well and hope his great career continues.

Did you ever notice how the BCS schools dominate much of the information given in preseason publications and on the web, as well as in recruiting guides?

It is a vexing situation because, outside of the supposed Top 10 teams in the country, non-BCS schools can compete with any team from any league during any year.

From the vantage point of 11 years into the BCS system, we see an ever-growing number of teams from conferences outside the so-called "Big Six" of the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-10, Big 12, and Big East heading to the "major" bowls as at-large selections.

Party crashers, right?

No!

The teams in question earned it.

They earned the right by achieving the status of selection not from an automatic berth as conference champion, but from performing so well on the field that they could not be overlooked.

Need we remind fans of Alabama and Oklahoma how well the non-BCS teams can perform when given the opportunity?

The identical power-package rating system, used during the weekly "11 Best 11s" Bleacher Report series in the fall, is adjusted to provide information on the teams considered in this review.

The same rating of less favorable to most favorable is used during this projection.

With such perceptions in mind, shall we preview the Non-BCS "11 Best 11s" for 2009?  

Rank    Team               Conference            Package Points   Probable Bowl       

11. Houston                  Conference USA       31.0                     Hawaii

10. Nevada                   WAC                        31.1                     Hawaii

9. Central Michigan        MAC                        31.2                     Motor City

8. Fresno State              WAC                       35.0                     New Mexico

7. East Carolina             Conference USA       36.0                     St. Petersburg

6. Utah                         Mountain West         36.1                     New Mexico

5. Troy                          Sun Belt                  36.2                     New Orleans

4. Southern Mississippi   Conference USA       36.3                     Liberty

3. Texas Christian           Mountain West         37.6                    Poinsettia

2. Brigham Young           Mountain West         37.7                    Las Vegas

1. Boise State                 WAC                       39.0                    Sugar

On The Porch: Louisiana Tech, The Air Force, Tulsa, Florida Atlantic, The Navy

Based upon this data, the Mountain West Conference will present three of the top six Non-BCS teams, Conference USA and the WAC will provide three teams each to the listing, and Boise State will qualify for a major BCS Bowl.

Champions of the Sun Belt and Mid-American Conferences generate enough strength to be listed in the "11 Best 11s" of the non-BCS schools.

Now, if we could just find a way to get a Non-BCS team into the Rose Bowl.