Southern Miss Football

I couldn't have asked for a better start to bowl season going 4-0 against the spread in Saturday's games.

We had our first chat in a few weeks yesterday and while we were few in numbers we weren't short on fun and I think we were even able to sway a few who were late on board to the good side, especially in the last two games of the day. While we can't expect to go 34-0 for the entire bowl season, it hasn't ever stopped us from trying before.

Jordan has posted his second set of picks and while I haven't read them I do know that the game we agreed on yesterday we were once again right on the mark. While he may not have had the start to bowl season he was looking for his record this year speaks for itself so when he starts to get hot again, look out.

For those of you waiting for the free newsletter, I didn't send one out this week.  I covered the limited amount of games we were working with on the blog and while I could have written a book about all of the developments going on with the site, I figured I would spare you as you are going to see them and hear all about them soon enough, it's really exciting stuff.

There also wasn't any kind of breaking news, if you have questions about upcoming games that I haven't gotten to yet, feel free to hit the forum and ask away. I will be sending out a newsletter this week.

In any event, we have a game tonight and I definitely have come up with a pick so let me get to it.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, The Super Dome, New Orleans, LA

Troy (8-4) Vs. Southern Miss (6-6)

Sunday, Dec. 21, 2008, 8:15 p.m. EST; The Line: Southern Miss +4 1/2

Overview

A little bit of trivia: I met Jordan when I was talking about Troy football. For a lot of people out there, they think Troy football is something odd to be discussing, but many of you out there know that it's something that's actually right in our wheelhouse. I watch so many games over the course of the year, I see plenty of Sun Belt Conference action and have been on Troy more than just this season.

I have talked about Troy so much this season as not a week went by that we didn't pick a game involving Troy, except for their off weeks. I am big admirers not just of the anytime, anyone, anyplace attitude that Troy brings, I am an even bigger fan when these teams let the other team know (usually on the road) that they aren't anyone's doormat, and I believe Troy has reached that point.

Troy went 8-4 this season, but all of its losses were on the road and three of them came to Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and LSU; there's no shame in that. Troy's other loss came at Louisiana-Monroe by a point in a game the Trojans should have won easily if not for being absolutely decimated by injuries.

I didn't have high expectations for Southern Miss and, while I'm a little surprised to see it in a bowl, in a day when 6-6 gets you in I'm not sure if it met or exceeded my expectations. The Golden Eagles had a miserable start to their season and looked to be headed for a "learning experience," as they were 2-6 with four games left to play.

While that was to be expected from a team with a new head coach and a freshman quarterback, talent isn't something Southern Miss is short on. Freshman wide receiver DeAndre Brown isn't just one of the best freshmen in the country, he is one of the best overall players in the country, and if you haven't had a chance to see him play you surely won't miss him on the field tonight—he stands 6'6" but plays even bigger.

See Mitch's college football bowl pick against the spread.

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Troy Trojans vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

December 21, 2008

8:00 pm ET

Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, LA

Spread: Troy -4.5

How they got here...

Troy easily won the Sunbelt Conference going 8-4 on the season.  This will be Troy’s second appearance in the New Orleans Bowl in three years.

Southern Miss fought back from a 2-6 record to win their final four games and became bowl eligible at 6-6.  This will be USM’s third appearance in the New Orleans Bowl in five years.

Statistically speaking...

Troy is looking for their twenty-fifth win in three seasons, and an impressive win will bolster their status as a pre-season pick to win the Sun Belt in 2009.  First year head coach Larry Fedora is looking to grab his first bowl victory at USM as he attempts to return the Golden Eagles to their former glory as the premier team in Conference USA.  A win against Troy would be a great springboard toward achieving that goal.

Troy wins if...

Their defense can stop dual-threat quarterback Austin Davis and standout running back Damion Fletcher.  Levi Brown should have an easy time moving the ball in his no-huddle spread offense, but the key to victory will be keeping the USM offense off the field and out of the end zone.

Southern Miss wins if...

Their defensive backs can keep up with the fast tempo of Troy’s offense.  They absolutely have to keep the pressure on Levi Brown, who does not throw as well when hurried.  Austin Davis and Damion Fletcher have to move the chains and wear down the Troy defense. 

B/R Expert Picks...

Ben Weixlmann:  Troy 

Lisa Horne:  Troy

Georgia Dawg:  Troy

David Wunderlich:  Troy 

Michael Cline:  Troy

Trey Bradley:  Troy

MiamiMitch:  Troy

Justin Goar:  Troy

Brian Scott:  Troy

This years R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl features two teams that have won the New Orleans Bowl in recent years. The Southern Miss Eagles won this bowl game in 2004 and in 2005. While the Troy Trojans won this bowl game in 2006 over Rice. Now these two teams meet in the 7th annual New Orleans Bowl. The Eagles of Southern Miss enter with a record of 6-6 and the Trojans enter with an 8-4 record.

The Troy Trojans enter this bowl game having won two straight games over Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State both of which were blowouts. The Trojans started the season off with two straight wins before losing to Ohio State and Oklahoma State.

They went on to then win three straight games before getting knocked off in a 31-30 loss to conference rival Louisiana-Monroe. They would then blow a big second half lead to No. 20 LSU and lose a game they should have won. The Trojans now enter this bowl game facing a tough challenge in the potent Southern Miss offense.

The Southern Miss Eagles started off the year 2-2 with losses to Auburn and Marshall. The Eagles then ended up losing four straight games following the Marshall loss and had to win out to qualify for a bowl game. They did exactly that. The Eagles ended up winning their last four games with the closest win being an 11 point victory.

Both squads feature potent offenses but I would have to lead toward Southern Miss in terms of having a better all around offense. The Eagles feature freshman quarterback Austin Davis who has performed like an experienced signal caller for the Eagles. Davis has thrown for 2852 yards, 21 TD's and eight Int's.

They also have a good rushing attack led by junior tailback Damion Fletcher who has rushed for 1235 yards and nine TD's. But the offensive firepower doesn't stop there for the Eagles. They also feature a great freshman wide receiver in DeAndre Brown. Brown was highly recruited out of high school and he has lived up to the hype. The 6'6 Brown has 66 cathes, 1108 yards receiving and 12 TD catches.

The Troy offense isn't too bad either as they score 33.3 points per game on offense. They are led by quarterback Levi Brown who has 1775 yards passing and 14 TD's through the air. They are not limited to the passing game though. They have running back DuJuan Harris who has 1025 yards rushing and 11 TD's on the ground.

Now, time for my prediction. I think that Southern Miss has been on a roll as of late by winning four straight games. One factor that I think will be key in this ball game is the sometimes over aggresive play calling by Troy because they have thrown the ball 45 times or more three times this year including a game where Levi Brown threw 70 passes.

In the end I think that Austin Davis will out-duel Levi Brown and pick apart the Troy defense. Troy doesn't have a great cover corner like former Trojan, now NFLer Leodis McKelvin to man up on the 6'6" Brown.

Final Prediction: Southern Miss is able to force turnovers and score off of those turnovers. The combination of Austin Davis and DeAndre Brown will be too much for Troy.

Final Score: Southern Miss 31, Troy 21

First off, I would like to apologize for my lack of writing. My job has made me work a ton with little time for research and writing. Without futher ado...

OVERVIEW 

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 1-0 (0-0) vs. Auburn Tigers 1-0 (0-0)

Location: Pat Dye Field at Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL

Time: 11:30 a.m. CDT

TV: Raycom Sports

SOUTHERN MISS

Head Coach: Larry Fedora (1st season)

Conference: Conference USA

Key Players to Watch:QB Austin Davis, RB Damion Fletcher, LB Gerald McRath

The Golden Eagles come off a dominating win over Lousiana-Lafayette, 51-21. Damion Fletcher gained 222 yards on the ground and Austin Davis was 14-of-20 passing for 206 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. The offense gained 633 total yards in its first game, showcasing more of a running game than passing game.

Gerald McRath led the team with 15 tackles in the opener. The Golden Eagles look to continue their early success this weekend on the Plains.

AUBURN

Head Coach: Tommy Tuberville (10th season)

Conference: Southeastern Conference

Key Players to Watch:QB Chris Todd, RB Ben Tate, DE Antonio Coleman, DBs Neiko Thorpe and Jerraud Powers.

The Tigers come of a dominating victory over the Lousiana-Monroe Warhawks34-0.  Auburn gained 321 yards on the ground, 115 of them coming from Ben Tate.  QB Chris Todd will start this weekend, and it will be interesting to see what they will do with the young quarterback.  Antonio Coleman had five tackles, two tackles for loss, including one sack that forced a fumble.  Freshamn NeikoThorpe lead the team with seven tackles, while Jerraud Powers was all over the field accumulating six tackles in the LA-Monroe game.  Auburn will look to improve its meager 85 passing yards against Southern Miss.

 

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Who has the edge at each position?

Quarterbacks: Southern Miss

Austin Davis may be a redshirt freshman, but his performance against La.-Lafayette was much better than either Kodi Burns' or Chris Todd's. What's yet to be seen is how Davis does against a top-notch defense.

Running Backs: Auburn

Damion Fletcher and Bubba Kirksey ran for 341 of the 444 rushing yards last week, but Auburn's running back corps of Brad Lester, Ben Tate, and up-and-comer Eric Smith is deeper and a bit more talented, and fumbles less as well.

Wide Receivers: Even

Southern Miss wideouts put up more yards last week, but yet to be seen is how they react to a defense like Auburn. Auburn's receivers are talented, but were unable to showcase their talents last game. Dropped passes also plagued the Tigers.

Offensive Line: Even

Southern Miss and Auburn both only gave up one sack each in their previous games, and paved the way for their respective running games. 

Defensive Line: Auburn

Auburn kept La.-Monroe to 84 yards rushing and pressured the quarterback the whole game. Southern Miss allowed more yards on the ground against La.-Lafayette.

Linebackers: Auburn

Gerald McRath is the force for Southern Miss at linebacker. Auburn has more playmakers with Tray Blackmon, Merrill Johnson, and Chris Evans.

Defensive backs: Auburn

Southern Miss and Auburn seem even as far as stats, but rising players for Auburn such as Neiko Thorpe make the Tigers have a slight edge in this matchup.

Special Teams: Auburn

Stat-wise, Auburn has the better tandem all-around, plus Robert Dunn can make huge returns.

Coaching: Auburn

Tuberville has been at Auburn longer than Fedora at Southern Miss, and coached bigger games.

FINAL ANALYSIS:

This game will be a bigger test for Auburn, but the Tigers should be able to handle it well before SEC play starts.

Predicted Score: Auburn 31, Southern Miss 14

The 2007 season was supposed to be USM’s year, as the Golden Eagles were the consensus pre-season favorite to win the C-USA. However, in what was Jeff Bower’s last season as head coach, the Golden Eagles finished a disappointing 4th in the East Division. While they were 4-0 on the road in C-USA play, they were just 1-3 at home. They finished the season at 7-6, with a 31-21 loss to Cincinnati in the Papajohns.com Bowl. Now, there’s a new era underway, as Larry Fedora takes the reins. What will his first year bring?

Coach: Larry Fedora (1st year at Southern Miss, 0-0)

2007 record: 7-6, 5-3 CUSA

Starters Returning: 10 (6 offense, 4 defense)

Top Returnees: RB Damion Fletcher, WR Torris Magee, TE Shawn Nelson, WR Gerald Baptiste, RT Ryan Mckee, MLB Gerald McRath, LB Tokumbo Abanikanda, P Britt Barefoot

Key Losses: QB Jeremy Young, QB Stephen Reaves, WR Chris Johnson, C Rick Thompson, LG Chris Clark, RG Nick Dean, DE Matt Chatelain, DT Martavius Prince, NT Sean Merrill, DE Robert Henderson, CB Brandon Sumrall, SS LeVance Richmond, LB James Denley

2008 Schedule

Aug. 30 Lousiana-Lafayette

Sept. 6 @ Auburn

Sept. 13 @ Arkansas St.

Sept. 20 Marshall

Oct. 4 UTEP

Oct. 11 Boise St.

Oct. 18 @ Rice

Oct. 25 @ Memphis

Nov. 1 UAB

Nov. 8 @ UCF

Nov. 15 East Carolina

Nov. 29 @ SMU

Key Game: Nov. 15 vs. East Carolina. The Golden Eagles could play spoiler to East Carolina’s C-USA title aspirations, which could leave the players with a great moment in what could be a long season.

2008 Overview

This could be a season to forget for the Golden Eagles, unless a large group of inexperienced players can step up.

Southern Mississippi will have just 10 starters returning and a new head coach in Larry Fedora, who was formerly Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator. It’s Fedora’s first head-coaching job, but he has more than 20 years of coaching experience as an assistant at the likes of Baylor, Air Force, Florida, and OSU.

Fedora is known as one of the top offensive coaches on the college level, but he will have his work cut out for him, as the group at quarterback is a young one. Sophomore Martevious Young will likely grab the starter’s spot, but he will have two redshirt freshmen as his back-ups, so this will be a year of growth at the quarterback position.

Fedora will have some weapons returning on offense though. Last year’s leading rusher, RB Damion Fletcher, returns after breaking the Golden Eagles’ single-season rushing record with 1,538 yards and 15 touchdowns. Fletcher will take a lot of pressure off of the young quarterbacks, though it’ll be up to the new starters on the offensive line to also do the same.

Three top wide receivers return including Torris Magee, who led with 632 yards receiving. TE Shawn Nelson (5 TD catches in ‘07) returns for his senior season and will be a reliable target through the air. The receiving corps will also get a significant boost from one of the elite recruits in the country, as DeAndre Brown, who was rated the #3 receiver in the country by Scout.com, is on track to be eligible to play as a freshman. The 6′6 Brown chose in-state USM over LSU, and his presence could mean less growing pains for the passing game.

The defense will be led by last year’s C-USA Defensive Player of the Year, middle linebacker Gerald McRath, who had 139 tackles and 4.5 sacks. The junior is being projected as a high first-round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, and he also tops our list of top non-BCS draft prospects. Senior Tokumbo Abanikanda will line up next to him.

While Southern Miss loses their two best defensive backs in CB Brandon Sumrall and SS LeVance Richmond, six of their top eight are back, including Ivory Bradshaw, who was out last year with a torn ACL. That is the good news for the defense, as they will have to compensate for the loss of the entire starting defensive line.

Besides Brown, there are several other recruits on both sides of the ball who could see significant early playing time, which could mean some big bumps in the road this season. There’s a good chance that USM’s streak of 14 straight winning seasons could come to an end, but at the same time, a bowl bid isn’t out of the question depending on how quickly the new starting lineups gel.

Either way, Fedora will be able to use this first year to put his stamp on the program and lay a foundation for the future, and with a lot of talent set to return in ‘09, any struggles this season could be quickly forgotten.