Oregon State Football

TCU @ Cowboys Stadium

Chance to win: 45%

Huge opener in an amazing venue that is a neutral field technically, but it should be a great game.  TCU is a top ten team but with their losses on defense, there are weaknesses to exploit.  The Rodgers brothers can stress that defense, but the receivers not named James Rodgers will have to produce.  I predict a big game from WR Aaron Nichols and TE Joe Halahuni if the Beavers are really in this game.  On the defensive end for the Beavers, here’s hoping DT Stephen Paea is in the TCU backfield a bunch.

Louisville in Reser Stadium

Chance to win: 80%

Louisville is rebuilding, and it should be an easy win, despite their BCS-conference affiliations.  This could be seen as a trap game, being between two top-ten opponents, but with the week off leading up to this game, Mike Riley should have the Beavers ready.   RB Jacquizz Rodgers should have a big game, and then you may see backups in near the end.

@Boise State

Chance to win: 40%

No. 3 in the country as of right now.  If Boise wins at Virginia Tech and OSU wins at TCU, this could be an absolutely huge game.  As Boise only lost one starter, their best CB, everyone in a Beavers uniform will need to be at the top of their game.  Stat line to watch: Turnover ratio.  If the Beavers win the turnover battle, it will be a very interesting game.  If they lose it, it could turn quite ugly.  Watch the running game early, whomever establishes the line of scrimmage first will win this one.

Arizona State in Reser Stadium

Chance to win: 75%

Pac-10 openers have been scary for the Beavers lately, but this is Arizona State, at home, with a new QB.  If the Beavers stay healthy through the non-conference slate, they should win this one.   It could get ugly, and ASU kicker Thomas Weber could be in for a long night, but QB Steven Threet is likely going to feel Stephen Paea’s massive bulk on top of him often.

@Arizona

Chance to win: 60%

Arizona QB Nick Foles is very good at getting the ball out quickly and the RB-by-committee the Wildcats have going is as scary as anyone’s in the country, but Oregon State is the better team.  Arizona has too many question marks on the defensive end.  Expect a shoot-out to go the Beavers way.  If it’s a low-scoring game, there may be some issues.

@Washington

Chance to win: 60%

The streak of beating Washington shouldn’t end just because Jake Locker is a senior.  That said, if all those shiny recruits in Seattle produce the way coach Sarkisian wants them too, this could go the Huskies’ way.  The Rodgers brothers are just too good, and have destroyed the Huskies in back-to-back seasons.  Jacquizz may make a Heisman push with his performance, or it may be James Rodgers looking like streaking bullet down the sidelines, but expect OSU to be up big early before Locker makes it look close near the end.

Cal in Reser Stadium

Chance to win: 70%

Even with QB Kevin Riley in his senior season expected to produce the typical Pac10 senior bump, the Bears will lose to OSU this year.  Shane Vereen is not Jahvid Best even though he may produce similarly, he just won’t be able to break open the game.

@UCLA

Chance to win: 65%

UCLA used to be Mike Riley’s Kryptonite.  That said, UCLA was quite a bit better a few years ago.  Expect a somewhat low-scoring game here with Jacquizz Rodgers being the difference maker for the Beavers.  UCLA will be woeful on offense, but with all their athletes, they will still have a pulse, and their defense will again be quite good.  Stat to Watch: Rushing yards/attempt.  If the Beavers manage to get over 5 yards/carry and hold UCLA to below 4, it will be an easy victory.

Washington State in Reser Stadium

Chance to win: 95%

This won’t be as bad as the last few seasons.  That said, it still won’t be pretty.  Washington State may win a Pac10 game this year, but it won’t be in Reser.

USC in raucous Reser Stadium

Chance to win: 65%

3 out of the last 4 trips to Corvallis haven’t ended the way the Trojans would wish.  This year won’t be the one to break the streak of losses in the state of Oregon, as USC has those ugly punishments hanging over their heads.  Expect the usual early OSU lead with the attempted come-back by USC before the Beavers seal the game late.  Most likely through a late turnover by QB Matt Barkley.

@Stanford

Chance to win: 60%

Stanford is a good team, and QB Andrew Luck may be the best QB in the conference by season’s-end but expect the running game to suffer without RB Toby Gerhart and FB Owen Marecic playing primarily LB.  Stat to Watch: 3^rd Downs.  If Stanford is forced to move the chains using 3 downs often enough, especially early, they may be forced to lay off the run and pass more.  Meanwhile, an open Oregon State offense is a very dangerous thing.  Forced to pass: not so much.  Should turn into a good game late, but expect Oregon State to jump into an early lead that will decrease but not go away.

Civil War versus Oregon in Reser Stadium

Chance to win: 60%

I expect a Civil War for the Roses again, and I predict home field advantage, after being reestablished by the Ducks last year to be a big deal again.  There is nothing specific to watch here, and I expect the game to go down to the wire.  K Justin Kahut will be either hero or goat, as it should come down to late field goals.

Total wins: 7.75

I’m actually predicting they get 9 wins, but I had to fudge the numbers just a bit just to get it closer to 8 from 7.5. I am predicting the Beavers win the Pac-10, but it actually looks like a third place finish this year with 8 wins.  Those two non-conference games against TCU and Boise State are not kind to the odds, but I really think they get one of the two of them.  QB Ryan Katz will have to play very well this season, but if he lives up to the hype coming out of Corvallis (from everyone other than Mike Riley, who is his usual coach-speak self), there is no telling what the ceiling is on this team.  RB Jacquizz Rodgers has a dark horse shot at the Heisman, his brother WR James Rodgers should end up an All-American and a first-team Pac-10 player, and DT Stephen Paea will match with his own awards.  As for the usual walk-on makes good his senior year story, Aaron Nichols should be surprisingly good and may end up on the All-Pac-10 list.  Should be a very exciting season.

There aren’t many 5'8" human beings that could dominate a state the size of Texas. But then again, Jacquizz Rodgers isn’t most human beings.

Most people aren’t 190 pounds of muscles. Most people aren’t capable of running like a compact freight train. Most people couldn’t win the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year.

Most people probably couldn’t lead the state of Texas in all-time rushing touchdowns either. But somehow, Jacquizz Rodgers pulled it off.

Rodgers stood only 5'8" and 160 pounds, but that didn’t stop him from living up to his nickname—Mr. Touchdown. Jacquizz ended up finishing his career at Lamar Consolidated High School in Rosenberg, Texas with 136 total rushing touchdowns.

Three years later, that record still stands.

On September 4th, Jacquizz will return to the state where he holds the all time rushing TD record. He’ll return to a state that bid him farewell and sent him up north after he was crowned state champion and record holder as a senior at Lamar.

Yes, on Saturday, Jacquizz will return to play his first game in Texas as a collegiate player. The Beavers will travel down to the new Cowboys Stadium to take on TCU in an early season out of conference matchup. The stadium is in Arlington, Texas, which is a four hour drive up I-45 from Quizz’s hometown of Richmond, Texas—a suburb of Houston.

This was a moment that was supposed to happen two years ago at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, but a cracked scapula kept the then freshman running back from putting on a show. The back’s older brother, senior wide receiver James Rodgers, also missed the Sun Bowl because of a broken collarbone. This will be his first game in Texas as well.

The Beavers are thirteen point underdogs in the matchup with TCU, the No. 6 ranked team in the country. Something tells me though that the Rodgers brothers could have something to say about that.

Jacquizz is coming into this year fresh off a sophomore season in which he rushed for 21 touchdowns and over 1,400 yards. He scored in every Oregon State game except for one.

TCU’s rush defense looks formidable yet also vulnerable after the losses of defensive end Jerry Hughes and linebacker Daryl Washington, both NFL Draft choices. The Horned Frogs will need strong efforts from the likes of Wayne Daniels, Tank Carder, and Cory Grant if they actually want to contain Rodgers.

When you mix tremendous motivation with tremendous skill, it usually results in a tremendous performance. Rodgers already had the skills to be the star of this game. Now he finds that extra motivation by playing back in his home state of Texas, where he has a strong history of success.

Oregon and Oregon State are both expected to contend for the Pac-10 Title this season and both have seen players run afoul with the law during the offseason.  

Jeremiah Masoli went completely AWOL, LaMichael James plead to a misdemeanor harassment charge and those are just the two biggest names.  

At OSU, QB Peter Lalich was dismissed in relation to his arrest for driving a boat under the influence, Brennan Olander was convicted of a theft charge and also involved in a golf cart theft that ended in a crash with Lyle Moevao and Keaton Kristick, and again, those are just the biggest names.  

And now this:  Tyler Thomas arrested and tased inside the home of a Corvallis woman, apparently drunk and completely out of his mind...and naked.

Nothing about the media coverage the two have received has been equal.  The Ducks have been vilified and mocked in the media while the incidents at OSU have either been chalked up to "boys being boys" or overlooked completely.  But this latest case is so unusual and alarming that neither response applies.

The Oregonian's John Hunt wrote up a "rap sheet", even though some of the players he lists never faced any kind of criminal charges.  

Legarette Blount's punch of Byron Hout, as embarrassing as it was for Blount and the program, was never considered a candidate for legal action; Jamere Holland being dismissed for a history of poor work ethic that came to a breaking point with his inflammatory Facebook post is also irresponsibly thrown in with criminal charges and citations.

Is putting your coach on blast via F-Book a solid plan?  No.  But does it belong on a list with guys facing criminal charges?  That one answers itself.  

The snarky tone of the article and inclusion of guys like Holland and Blount were typical of the coverage of the Ducks offseason.

The strangest thing about the difference in coverage is the view that somehow Mike Riley has acted far more decisively and appropriately than Chip Kelly when faced with players who get in trouble.  

Kelly has been criticized repeatedly for basing his decisions on a players role on the team rather than his transgressions.

Sure, Kelly would dismiss Matt Simms; he's a walk-on that probably never would have helped the Ducks even if he hadn't punched a guy he mistakenly believed was involved in the Beard-Bowlin brawl.  

But he merely sat LaMichael James for a game for his altercation with a former girlfriend that resulted in a guilty plea to physical harassment.  He booted Holland and Embry, two guys who looked like they were more potential than player; but gave Jeremiah Masoli numerous chances before finally sending him packing.  

Riley has had an alarmingly similar response, as long as we're looking at it that way...

He booted Lalich for the BUI, but Lalich had faded to Ryan Katz and was not going to start at quarterback for OSU.  He removed Thomas for the trespass and resisting arrest, but Thomas was just a redshirt freshman and not exactly a difference maker this season. 

But instead of a rap sheet, Riley "hands out discipline".  Oh yeah, Olander was also cited in 2008 for marijuana possession, just like Jeremiah Masoli was earlier this year. 

Masoli was booted for the marijuana possession and for lying to Kelly about staying out of trouble.

Riley, meanwhile, must not think the pattern of behavior is anything to be worried about for Olander, who was handed down no punishment other than to complete the community service the court ordered before he could practice.

Olander was a starter in 2009 and gives the Beavers an experienced big body to team with Stehen Paea in the middle of the defense.  In fact, some think with him the Beavs are in "Great Shape" at the position entering 2010...interesting...

Because Mike Riley has not yet been accused of losing control the way Kelly was.

Not even when he's had multiple guys get MIP's, had theft charges, a DUI, and resisting arrest charges against players or players who were dismissed resulting from those charges.

Not even when a guy breaks into a woman's house and is found upstairs naked and so drunk he actually got into a three-point stance before he rushed the cops who responded.  Instead Riley gets credit because he "got this one right".  

Really?  Did he?  I would hope so, because this one was a no-brainer.

Kelly has lost control, Riley has done a good job of waiting for the facts to come out.

Take it for what it's worth.