Over 150 years ago, the Union and Confederacy clashed for freedom in the American Civil War. The Civil War only lasted six years, but there is still a Civil War going on in the United States of America, and it's at it's peak at this very moment.

When Oregon State goes into Autzen Stadium to do battle with the Ducks of Oregon on Thursday night, it will be an epic showdown for the ages. It might not punch either team a ticket to the National Title game, but it will punch a ticket to the second biggest bowl there is—the Rose Bowl.

Besides this weekend's SEC Championship game between Alabama and Florida, there is no bigger game than the 113th edition of the Civil War (the best rivalry name in college football).  In fact Oregon-Oregon State might be the second best college football game all season long. Let's take a look at the two teams, shall we?

Oregon is 9-2 with only one of those losses coming in the ultra deep Pac-10 to Stanford and the other to undefeated Boise State.

Oregon State, on the other hand has three losses—two in the Pac-10 to USC and Arizona. Their other loss? To undefeated Cincinnati.

As one can see, both teams have gone through pretty brutal schedules, only losing to other top conference teams and undefeated non-conference foes.

Both teams feature explosive young and small running backs in reigning Pac-10 player of the year Jaquizz Rodgers for the Beavers and LaMichael James for the Ducks.

James has barely been out-rushed by Rodgers this season, although Quizz was already a household name. When LeGarrette Blount (I guess the Ducks like recruiting players with "La or Le" in front of their name) was suspended, somebody had to step up for Oregon. James has done that and more.

Jaquizz has proved himself, yet again, to be one of the nation's top running backs. The 5'7" speedster is nearly impossible to tackle and has a knack for the big play. Oregon State will need to control the clock against the Ducks, and Rodgers will help them do that.

The teams are about equal at running back, and quarterback is no different. Jeremiah Masoli will probably be the quarterback when the All-Pac 10 team is announced, but Sean Canfield has had an impressive season in his own right.

Canfield is very mistake proof and is playing like a man possessed as of late. He and Jaquizz's brother James have great chemistry, so expect a full helping of the older Rodgers brother in this game. Canfield will be finding him early and often.

Masoli on the other hand, is more of a game changer than Canfield. Not only can Masoli make things happen through the air, he can also do a lot of things with his feet. He had a spectacular game in his last performance at Arizona, accounting for three touchdowns through the air and on the ground. That's six total touchdowns.

When Masoli is on he's great, but he's also fallen apart a few times this season. Oregon State's weak secondary shouldn't kill him on Thursday, but Masoli does have a tendency to make mistakes as well as being a great player. If the Beavers can force him to give the ball away, Oregon will be greatly hurt.

The X factor on offense in this year's version of the great Civil War will not be be the younger Rodgers brother Jaquizz, but the elder, James. Both of the brothers were missing in last year's thrashing of Oregon State. Now with one of the best backs in the country and one of the top receivers in the country actually at 100 percent, the Beavers have a good chance on knocking the Ducks off and punching themselves a ticket to the Rose Bowl.

James will be the X factor just because he is the only truly consistent pass catcher in this game. Both teams have talent, sure. But James performs on a weekly basis and his knack for the end zone and the big play are spectacular. Not only can he hurt Oregon catching the ball, but James returns kicks and punts as well as getting carries on sweeps at least five or six times a game. He hasn't broken one in a while, so t's about time.

Oregon State's defense is peaking at the right time as well. They have improved as the season has progressed, just like every year, and have now turned into a defense that is slightly above average after beginning the season as a below average defensive unit. Oregon, whose defense was once their strength, is now giving up points in the bunches and is fading at the wrong time to be facing an explosive offense like Oregon State.

So who will win this showdown for the ages?

This is definitely a game that could go either way. Oregon has the home-field advantage, but the Beavers are playing better. Oregon has struggled recently, but Oregon State has been playing weaker competition, possibly damaging their preparation. Oregon has the history, including winning 62-38 last year, but Mike Riley's group has the revenge factor of last year's game, plus having their two biggest play makers that they were missing from that game.

The prediction? As much as I hate to say it, the Ducks will once again get the better of Oregon State. There is a reason that Oregon State hasn't been to the Rose Bowl since 1964, they have horrible luck. That's what this game will come down to. A lucky play here, a bad call there and the Ducks will be playing in Pasadena on New Year's.

Oregon 35, Oregon State 31

Throughout the 2009 college football season, one of the stories lost in the shuffle has been the incredible season that one particular team from the Pac-10 is having, and no I don't mean USC, Stanford, or Oregon. I mean the Beavers of Oregon State.

Oregon State has been one of the most electrifying football teams nationwide all season long. The tandem of the Rodgers brother, Jacquizz and James, has burned every team that they have played all season long.

Sean Canfield has thrown for 2797 yards and 19 touchdowns to go along with Jacquizz Rodgers' 1313 rushing yards, 436 receiving yards, and 14 passing yards. Rodgers has accumulated a total of 20 touchdowns throughout the season as well.

In the receiving unit, Canfield's favorite target has been Jacquizz Rodgers' brother and published poetry writer, James Rodgers. James has caught 77 passes for 865 yards and eight touchdowns. Another great asset to James is his run ability as well. In addition to his receiving numbers, James has rushed for 260 yards and one touchdown.

Now, this article is not solely on the Oregon State Beavers because I understand that there are two teams battling on that field. The brilliant mind of Chip Kelly battling the intricate mind of Mike Riley. These are two brilliant coaches, that is what any fan needs to understand first and foremost.

The thursday night duel between the two Oregon teams will have speed at a premium. The Rodgers brothers, Jeremiah Masoli, and LaMichael James will all look to utilize their speed on the surface of the Ducks' field. Oregon has already established a dominant home-field advantage this season, just ask Pete Caroll and his USC Trojans. In this game, defense is the key obviously. Both of these teams have electrifying players as we have mentioned, it comes down to what team will be able to contain better.

Neither team's defense has been "top notch" this year. Other than a 34-7 schlacking delivered to Portland State, Oregon State has not held one opponent to single digits yet. In fact, the Beavers have allowed 20 or more points in 6 of their 11 games. Yet, after the shoot out with USC that ended in a 42-36 USC victory on October 24th, the Beavers have given up 20 points only once.

Oregon State's three losses this year have all come to good teams: Cincinnati, Arizona, and USC. I bring this up to show that even against very good teams, such as Cincinnati, the Beavers offense does not get shut down. 18 against Cincinnati, 32 against Arizona, and 36 against USC.

In 5 of the Beavers' past 6 games, they have scored 30 points or more, against teams such as Stanford, California, and USC. This is an offense that is rarely held down, even by the best of defenses.

Now we move over to the green and gold, the quack attack, so to speak. First and foremost, I want to say that I hope LeGarrette Blounte gets a chance to play in this game. What the young man did was very wrong and I am in no way attempting to justify it. I do however believe in second chances. Michael Vick is slowly but surely getting his second chance and Blounte is on the cusp of getting his as well.

Now, back to the actual game, I must be fair in pointing out that the Oregon defense, is simply not much better than Oregon State. Oregon has experienced some crucial injuries in the secondary that could severely affect how the Ducks will attempt to contain James Rodgers.

Arguably, the Ducks' best defensive performance was in a game that they lost, the infamous September 3rd game against Boise State. Kellen Moore, Jeremy Avery, Titus Young, and Austin Pettis have created an electric offense for Chris Peterson throughout the season, an offense that was limited to 19 points against the Ducks, by far their lowest output of the season.

Now, to any Boise fan that is reading this, I do understand that Oregon was supposed to win that game and I am by no means taking anything away from the Broncos' victory. What I am saying, however, was that during that game the Ducks D was all over Avery, Pettis, and Young. Hounding them on each snap. It was an impressive performance.

A few weeks later, a hot California Golden Bears team that was ranked number 6 in the country at the time came in to play the Ducks. Similar to Pete Carroll, Jeff Tedford had to console his players after they were delivered at 42-3 beatdown by the Ducks. Simply put, Autzen Stadium is not an easy place to win a football game.

Still, the Ducks' defense cooled off greatly. After the California game, they delievered another beatdown, this time to Washington State by a score of 52-6, and since then, the defense hasn't been the same.

In the last three games, the Ducks have given up a total of 113 points, 37.6 per game. In their first 8 games they only gave up 137 points, an average of 17 a game. Basic facts? This defense has been struggling heavily lately. What's worse, these three games were against Stanford, Arizona, and Arizona State. Stanford is understandable, but Arizona and Arizona State?

Oregon is by no means receiving a break now that they receive the Rodgers brothers and Canfield. The key to this team is going to be all about containment on defense. They will not be able to shut them down, but they could however limit them.

The ultimate keys to this game for each team is the quarterback. Masoli and Canfield are the leaders of these teams, even if they have other stars around them. Oregon's crucial key is going to be their crowd. As Kirk Herbstreit once said, "This place isn't in the SEC, Big 12, or Big 10, but it is just as intimidating as anywhere else in the country." I've never actually been in the stadium, but when you watch a game, you get the same feeling.

In the end, this is going to be one of the greatest games in "Civil War" history. I predict a high scoring game. My final prediction? Beavers stomp in to Autzen Stadium and march out with Roses on their mind. My final score is Oregon State 38-Oregon 34. I think Jeremiah Masoli will pick apart the Beavers defense with two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown to boot. I predict Jacquizz Rodgers to have over 100 yards rushing and two touchdowns and James Rodgers to have over 50 receiving yards and 50 rushing yards as well as a touchdown. I also see Sean Canfield having at least 250 yards passing and 2 touchdowns.

Granted these could be far-fetched predictions, they do have research behind them. As a devout Ohio State Buckeyes fan, Im sure I speak for many others when I say that both of these teams frighten me. I love the scarlett and gray and I've also become a big fan of the Orange and Black Beavers. This team is electric and fun to watch, and this "Civil War" will be the same way. In the end, it will be a battle of the OSU's in the Rose Bowl.

God Bless you all.

Ever heard of Sean Canfield?

If you are not a Pac-10 fan, the answer is probably, “No.”  And that is a real shame, because Canfield, quarterback for Oregon State, is one of the better passers in college football, let alone the Pac-10.

But you better get acquainted with him soon. If he leads his Beavers to an upset win over the Ducks on Dec. 3, you will next see him playing in the Rose Bowl.

Why Canfield receives so little notoriety is beyond me. Sure, the fact that he never has a national TV audience plays a role, but why do you never hear any buzz about him in columns or on the radio? He deserves more attention for a variety of reasons.

For starters, Oregon State has posted an 8-3 record this year with Canfield at the helm. While Oregon, Cal, USC, Stanford, and Arizona have all taken turns sharing the spotlight in conference, Oregon State has quietly plodded along, moving into sole possession of second place behind the Ducks.

Ranked 16th in the AP poll, Oregon State is only now garnering attention as they stand as the last stumbling block in the way of Oregon’s pursuit of a Pac-10 title.

If the record isn’t enough to convince you of Canfield’s value at quarterback, just take a look at his stats. His completion percentage is 70.3. Better than Tim Tebow, Case Keenum, Jimmy Clausen, or Kellen Moore. He has thrown 19 touchdowns to only six interceptions. Better than Colt McCoy.

He does all this in a balanced offense, as well. Oregon State runs the football 49.6 percent of the time.

Why wouldn’t they, with Jacquizz Rodgers to hand the ball to? Particularly in goal-line situations, the Beavers want to let Rodgers slash his way into the end zone, driving down Canfield’s touchdown numbers.

That being said, Canfield does pass the ball quite a bit. Nearly as much as other top passers, so his great completion percentage and solid touchdown-to-interception ratio are not merely products of a system.

But what is perhaps most impressive about Canfield is the fact that all of his accomplishments have come in the deepest conference in college football.

Relax, SEC fans. I didn’t say the best; I said the deepest. The Pac-10 may not have a marquee team like Florida, Alabama, or Texas, but outside of Washington State there are no pushovers in the conference. Almost every team is really good, even if no teams are great.

Only the SEC can compete with the Pac-10 this year in terms of depth. Sorry, Big XII fans. 2008 was a nice year, but now more than half your conference is an absolute joke.

So for Canfield to have accomplished so much in the face of tough opposition is quite impressive.

Yet even within his own conference he gets little of the respect he deserves. Most people would probably identify Jake Locker or Jeremiah Masoli as the best quarterbacks in the Pac-10. Even freshmen Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley get more attention than the senior Canfield.

Canfield is an afterthought. Unknown by many, he has quietly given his team a shot at the Rose Bowl. Never spectacular, he has nonetheless been extremely consistent and reliable.

Does Canfield belong in the discussion of best quarterbacks in the country? No. He is not in the same category as Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy when it comes to leadership or winning ways. He doesn’t have the pure passing ability of a Jimmy Clausen.

But he combines those two traits, albeit on a lesser level. And for that he deserves the name recognition afforded to players such as Kellen Moore, Daryll Clark, and Terrelle Pryor.

And whether or not his skill set will transfer to the NFL is irrelevant. That question applies to most of the quarterbacks I named. Besides, we are evaluating best college quarterbacks, not best NFL prospects.

Sure, a select handful of quarterbacks are better. So put Tebow, McCoy, and maybe one or two others in the first-tier of college quarterbacks. Canfield is one of the foremost quarterbacks in the second tier.

But you don’t know who he is.

He will try to change that on Dec. 3. Try to help his team emerge as the best in the Pac-10. Try to prove that he is the best quarterback you have never noticed.

This year’s Civil War football matchup between Oregon and Oregon State is unquestionably the biggest and most important game in the 115-year history of the rivalry.

Oh, there have been big Civil War games before. In 2000, Oregon was ranked No. 5 and Oregon State No. 8, and both teams had BCS dreams.

Last year, the Beavers were favored to go to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 43 years, only to have the rug pulled out from under them as they were annihilated by a well-rested and well-prepared Ducks team, 65-38.

But this year is bigger. For the first time ever, the winner of this game goes to the Rose Bowl. Guaranteed.

The Civil War has become the War of the Roses.

Overall, the Oregon Ducks have the upper hand in the rivalry, with a 56-46-10 record against the Beavers. This year the Ducks will have the upper hand again, with a higher BCS ranking and home field advantage.

However, if you’re the betting type, there are some very good reasons to pick the Beavers to win the biggest battle in Civil War history.

To begin with, Mike Riley is widely respected as the best coach in the Pac-10. That doesn’t always translate into 10-win seasons, because recruiting to Corvallis is harder than recruiting to Arizona or Los Angeles, but perhaps no coach in college football does a better job at improving his team from the beginning of the season until the end than Riley.

This year has been no exception. Just look at the transformation of Sean Canfield from a big question mark into an exclamation point. Just look at the improvement of an Oregon State defense that gave up an average of 28 points in its first four Pac-10 games and only 16 in its last four.

Say what you will about the roll the Ducks went on after that opening loss to Boise State; the Beavers have been on just as great a roll over the past seven weeks, going 6-1 with the only loss coming in a close game at USC. Riley has his team on track to win at least nine games for the fourth season in a row.

Meanwhile, the Ducks have been sputtering, relatively speaking. After going 5-0 and allowing only 11.6 points per game to start the Pac-10 season, in the last three games they lost at Stanford, needed double OT to beat Arizona, and have given up an average of 37.6 points.

Believe it or not, nearly half the points scored against the Ducks this season have come in just the last three games (113 points in the last three games; 137 in the previous eight).

All of this means that the Beavers are going into this game with momentum on their side. They have nothing to lose, because nobody expected them to be in this position. At the same time, they are playing better than anyone in the conference. They are exactly where Riley wants them to be: humble and hungry.

Chip Kelly, on the other hand, may be a genius as an offensive coordinator, but he’s a rookie head coach. Both teams will have 11 days to prepare for this game, and you have to think that gives Riley an advantage.

Then there's the revenge factor.

The Beavers went into last year’s Civil War with visions of the Rose Bowl dancing in their heads. Losing that game the way they did had to be the worst moment in the football careers of everyone associated with the team.

Now they have a second chance to make that Rose Bowl dream a reality, and they can do it by beating the very team that dashed their hopes a year ago. To make it even more like a fairy tale, that team also happens to be their in-state rival. For a college athlete or a coaching staff, it doesn’t get any better than that.

That’s why you can throw aside the respective records and the home field advantage and confidently pick the Oregon State Beavers to upset the Ducks and go to the Rose Bowl.

And if they don’t? Well, they are the Beavers, after all.

Though there isn't a full compliment of conference teams in action this weekend, the Pac-10 will feature the top college game in the nation.

While Arizona, Stanford and Washington rest during a bye week in their respective schedules, the rest of the conference schools will be locked up in some key battles.

The way my picks have gone this season, have to concede that last week was one of my better ones with a record of 2-3. Obviously I don't have to depend on "skills" in picking college football games to keep a roof over the head and food on the table.

Staying with the usual format of previewing conference games in order by kickoff times, let's get on with a look around the Pac-10.

California vs. Arizona State +6.5

The Cal Bears are coming off an impressive win over WSU at home. Cal looked as though they could score at will on the Cougs in a variety of ways. It's not likely they will have their way with the Sun Devil defense. Arizona State has been searching for ways to put points on the scoreboard. Though ASU can slow down any top offense in the country, they struggle to end drives with touchdowns. The news for Coach Dennis Erickson and his offense isn't good in terms of matching up with Coach Jeff Tedford's defense. Though Cal has given up a lot of yardage this season, they don't give up many points when they show up to play. The news for ASU good in terms of team consistency by the Bears. Against two top Pac-10 teams, USC and Oregon, the Bears were bad news. If history holds form, Cal should be playing consistently good football the rest of this season. All Pac-10 running back Jahvid Best will get enough touches to garner another multiple touchdown performance against an outstanding ASU defense. He'll be the difference in this game. PICK: California

UCLA vs. Oregon State -8.5 

This was supposed to be the season where people discovered there were two outstanding college football programs in Los Angeles. Instead, the marketing machine for UCLA clearly put their cart in front of the horse. Bruin fans haven't had much to cheer about since their team traveled to Tennessee and knocked off the Vols off their Rocky Top. The highly touted offensive genius team of Coach Rick Neuheisel and Coach Norm Chow have been missing a secret element to mesmerize opponents defenses. Without a healthy, experienced quarterback the UCLA offense has languished in a series of futile drives week after week. Who would have thought the strength of this Bruin team would be it's defense? For Coach Mike Riley and the Beavers, they have lived up to expectations. With a lot of new players on defense, it's taken a few games for the Oregon State defense to get up to speed. The Rogers brothers have sparked the offense. Not only are the Beavers on track for a bowl bid again this season, they could surprise a couple of teams coming up and run the table right into a place among the elite of college football in 2009. It's tough for visitors to win in Corvallis. PICK: Oregon State

Washington State vs. #25 Notre Dame -28

The Cougs will travel to play the Fighting Irish on their home field in San Antonio, TX. What? Notre Dame will be out to prove that they can call just about anywhere home by moving this game to the neutral site of the Alamodome. It's estimated that 4,000 Washington State fans will make the trip to Texas to rout for their beloved Cougars. Crimson and gray clad supporters will mirror the task their team faces as the balance of the 65,000 fans at this game will be Irish...at least for Halloween. This nationally televised game will feature two of the most exciting players in college football in Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen and wide receiver Golden Tate. Tate is such an explosive player, Coach Charlie Weiss will try and get the ball into his hands early and often. Clausen is simply the best player lining up under center this season. Coach Paul Wulff and his staff have been working overtime to get his young team the reps they need to compete at the FBS level. It took a few games, but Coach Wulff found a quarterback. He finally has some players back from injuries to protect freshman Jeff Tuel in the pocket. Both teams have similar philosophies on defense playing "bend don't break" style football. But if the WSU defense is left on the field for too much of the game, they tend to break down. It's possible that Irish players are looking forward to a week where they won't need their 'A' game to win. Washington State players have no fear about losing. Been there. Done that. They are looking at this game from an entirely different perspective. This will be their bowl game in 2009. PICK: Washington State

#4 USC vs. #10 Oregon +4.5

This my friends should be one heckuva college football game. Love 'em or hate 'em, the Duck fans filling Autzen Stadium are among the most passionate in the nation. The noise they generate cheering Oregon on to victory is legendary. It's been said the noise level after an Oregon touchdown at Autzen could drown out a nuclear bomb test. That might be a stretch, but when it comes to stretching, Coach Chip Kelly's offense will do that and more. Oregon is the only state that would legally allow an arsenal with the firepower of the Duck offense to exist. The visiting team in this game will be bringing plenty of their own weapons to the game Saturday evening. Coach Pete Carroll has the key to this shootout. If his offensive line provides the blocking for sustained drives, USC has what it takes to silence the crowd. I'll let others bombard you with stats on the players for both teams. This game will boil down to the essence of football. When both teams have comparable talent, the winner will be determined by who can block better and who can tackle better. Those two elements are the key components to the creative headlines yet to be penned. If you're going to a Halloween party, be sure to set your DVR to record this one. You won't want to miss a single play. PICK: Oregon

Team	Conf.	Pct.	Overall	Pct.
Oregon	4-0	1.000	6-1	.857
USC	3-1	.750	6-1	.857
Arizona	3-1	.750	5-2	.714
Stanford	4-2	.667	5-3	.625
California	2-2	.500	5-2	.714
Oregon State	2-2	.500	4-3	.571
Arizona State	2-2	.500	4-3	.571
Washington	2-3	.400	3-5	.375
UCLA	0-4	.000	3-4	.429
Washington State	0-5	.000	1-6	.143

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Lew's picks are now 22-28 on the season. You've been warned!

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DISCLAIMER: College football is all about the spectacle and event. Wagering on games taints the experience. Have some fun, enjoy family and friends this weekend.

Originally published in Lew Wright's column on Examiner.com

History is not QUITE against OSU.  Look at their record at USC and it isn’t pretty.  Recently? Fuhgettaboutit.

There are a few things working for them, however.  If USC is to lose, let’s look at them first.  They lost their only game at home in the Pete Carroll era against a Stanford team that had far less talent than this Oregon State team. 

So it CAN be done, although it’s a rare event. 

When does USC lose under Pete Carroll? Mostly after a big game.  Washington this year after Ohio State, Oregon State last year after beating down Ohio State, to Oregon after Notre Dame in 2007. 

The pattern does somewhat leave you scratching your head to the Stanford loss in 2007, but it was after a close game against the Washington Huskies that was a nail-biter, this is after a big game against Notre Dame which was also down to the wire, so increase Oregon State’s chances by 5% or so. 

Usually with these upsets, the Trojans also seem to be looking ahead on the schedule to a big match-up, and their match-up next week against top-10 ranked Oregon definitely qualifies. So chalk up another couple percentage points for the Beavers.

Now for the biggest factor in the Beavers favor, which I will call the Mike Riley factor. 

The Beavers seem to get better as their seasons move forward, and this season is no exception.  USC looks like its offense is starting to come along, but is it ready for prime time? 

Oregon State’s defense recently has held USC’s offense in check, and even the big beat-down in 2007 only showed 24 points for USC.  If OSU can hold USC to around there again, OSU has a real chance at a win as I can’t see this offense being nearly as inept as that pass-challenged team. 

No back-handed compliments intended, but Sean Canfield has grown up a bit since that game, and as long as he doesn’t get injured this time, they will have a fighting shot.  If not, there is a slightly hobbled quarterback with a win against USC already in Lyle Moevao. 

The big surprise? Mike Riley and the Beavers are coming off a bye-week.  You know how many Riley has lost in this stint with the Beavers coming off of a bye-week? None.  That’s right, Riley’s Beavers have never lost coming off a bye-week, and its not as if USC rested last weekend as well. 

Which streak ends? A long losing streak in the Coliseum, or the recent history of Riley?  Who prepares a team better to play the Trojans? 

An article written by Taylor Kavanaugh in the Oregonian displayed that even the USC band can be used as motivation.  As the Oregon State team works out, they listen to the USC band play their fight song over and over and over again ad nauseum until it turns from being an annoyance into motivation.  Seems like a powerful tool, and Riley and his staff have not wasted it. 

If the Beavers, with the longest road winning streak in the Pac-10 right now, are to have their shot, this is the coaching staff to do it.

Canfield is a horrible quarterback.  Time for Moevao to come in and take the reigns for a team that desperately needs leadership.  Moevao has the game-winning drives, the completion percentage, the deep throws, and doesn’t commit turnovers.  He’s far-and-above the better quarterback and if he had been playing against Cincinnati…

Oh wait, Moevao does not have a game-winning drive to his name.  Canfield has two. Look up the games in which they have played, and you start to see some things.  Is Moevao a good quarterback? Of course he is, and of course he has the “moxie” that makes a good quarterback into a great quarterback, or an okay quarterback into a good one.  Do we really need to open up the can-of-worms of having a quarterback controversy? 

 

Fans have short memories.  They still see Canfield as this California kid with all the tools and none of the personality.  Don’t get me wrong, that’s exactly who he was, and if it weren’t for Yvenson Bernard being the real leader of the offense in his first starts, the leadership he lacked would have been critical.  Moevao was the leadership package that you needed to mold a team from decent to quite good and a top-25 performer. 

Sean is the man now, thanks in large part to Moevao showing him the way to lead a team.  Their friendship might have earned Canfield a shot at the NFL, and I’m not exaggerating.  They have both grown in the program and have Oregon State the envy of the Pac-10 at the quarterback position.  Moevao is the best backup quarterback in the Pac-10 and maybe in the country, but he is the backup quarterback.

Lets get into the stats a bit.  I am a bit of a stat nerd, and I realize there is a lot more to playing football than stats, but they tell a lot of the story.  An interesting factoid for all you Canfield doubters: while he may not have had a good day against Cincinnati in terms of yards per completion or yards per attempt, if he continues with the completion percentage he had on that mediocre day passing, he will be the all-time leader in completion percentage in Oregon State history.  He completed 64.5% of his pass attempts, and while that may not sound so out of sight, coming into the game he had the highest completion percentage in the country, period.  Obviously a lot of that is due to the fact that he has possibly the best screen running back in the country with Jacquizz Rodgers.  With James Rodgers double teamed all day long, Canfield did not look good going to his safety valve all the time, but what is concerning is how noone else consistently stepped up to catch passes with James relatively out of commission.  James is a flanker, not the split end and not the possession-based slot receiver.  Double teaming a flanker should mean that your split end goes on a tear, or the slot has the underneath reception open all day long.  And if all those things are not true, but you are a good team, your running back will be averaging 8 yards a carry, because they’ve been forced into a nickel or dime defense.

I mean really, OSU lost Sammie Stroughter, who might have been the most underrated receiver in the NFL draft, and who is now competing for starting time for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers out of the 7^th round.  Shane Morales, meanwhile, was doing his best Mike Hass impression by coming up with critical catch after critical catch to keep the chains moving.  There was no way to truly stop the attack of the passing game unless you managed to get to the quarterback, and the offensive line was quite a dominant one in the Pac-10 last year.

Fast-forward to this year, and who do you have other than the no. 2 option flanker James Rodgers?  He’s supposed to be playing a position that is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades, as they use him to block during zone run plays, as a receiver on the underneath routes or once or twice a dead sprint down the sideline, and finally as a running option on the reverse (fly-sweep in this case).  Let the opposition double team James, a good quarterback with good receivers should tear a secondary apart if they’re committing like that against a 2^nd option. 

The real problem?  He’s still the primary option, and getting the ball as a 2^nd read for a short reception that might or might not turn into a first down.  Screens to the outside for James, the fly-sweep, the short underneath routes are not going to work well when the defense is keying on it.  It’s a misdirection-based position.  So his average against Cincinnati, at 8.2 yards per reception, doesn’t look great.  Especially with a long of 26 yards.  One play got him a quarter of his yards, so you can quickly see how those little receptions really worked most of the game.

 

The next best option for Canfield in the game was Damola Adeniji playing from the split end position.  5 catches at an average of just over 11 per reception.  That’s the average you expect out of a split end, but compare that to Stroughter last year, who averaged around there and averaged more catches than that with the defense paying him a lot more attention week-in and week-out.  Maybe the play from this position improves with Catchings back in the line-up and the starting split end taking his proper place within the offense.  If he manages to get that permanent double team off of James Rodgers, he will have done his job.  If not, and he can only manage what Adeniji has done thus far, it may be a long year.

The slot was non-existent in the game.  Really, read no catches for Kjos and Bishop.  You may want to call out Canfield for this and claim this is the reason to put Moevao in as the starter.  No catches though? Really? Morales made defenses hit themselves over and over again as he would move the chains, while neither Kjos nor Bishop have shown any real presence at all this season.  They both have shown promise but thus far have not shown any reason to be counting on them time and again, and that is exactly what you need in a slot receiver.  The slot becoming a presence on the same side of the field as the flanker would mean every once in awhile forcing a defender to pull off of James Rodgers just long enough to hit a big play or two. 

What about the offensive line? They’re young, inexperienced and have been a bit porous against the pass rush.  Canfield has been sacked 9 times in two games, not a good stat to have, and with the safety valves he has been throwing to, does anyone really believe Moevao would avoid the sack and make a play on many of those? Maybe he gets out of 1 of those a game more than Canfield does, but does he make a bad decision and throw it when he SHOULD take the sack instead?  Did you know that Oregon State was the absolute last team in D1-A to commit a turnover? Part of that was due to the start time being late, but it still is quite a statement.  That single turnover was a fluke play too, and could happen to any quarterback throwing to any receiver.  The ball was deflected up and heads-up play by the Cincinnati secondary turned it into an interception.  Taking the sacks has led to far less mistakes than flinging the ball around, despite how bad those sacks start to look.

 

At times Canfield has looked slow on his reads, but once again, look at the numbers.  Last Saturday he completed passes to seven different targets, something that evokes thoughts of a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning performance, not a losing effort.  He does not have a problem checking down, even if he takes a little too long with the ball.  As the offensive line matures, wouldn’t you want your quarterback tossing to that many different targets if he has to?  Once again, it would be nice to have a reliable target for a third down situation, but with a bit more time to throw, don’t you think Canfield would find a way to get the first down, given that kind of performance?  Neither quarterback was required to find targets outside of the receivers last year, other than a tight end screen or a check down to a running back now and again.  He showed patience and rather than throw the bomb, he showed maturity by finding a man closer, and more open, to try and make the first.  Would Moevao have done this? History tends to show Moevao will make the gutsy throws, and sometimes succeed at it, but we don’t want Brett Favre or even Derek Anderson when we have such a dynamic weapon out of the backfield as a check down.

When the rest of the offense matures, Canfield will be calm, collected, and leading this Oregon State team to great victories, and by the time we really get to questioning what could have been had Moevao stayed healthy, we will be looking to Ryan Katz and Peter Lalich to bring the debate as to who should be behind center.  Riley will not bench Canfield after a decent performance against a very good team, and he has shown to be loyal to a fault to his starter.  If Canfield gets hurt, Oregon State has the best backup quarterback you could ask for, and fans should just be thankful for that, not requesting a quarterback change.

Go Beavers.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Oregon State Beavers

College Football: Saturday September 19, 2009 6:45 PM EST (Fox Sports Net)

The Line: Oregon State -1

The Big East gets a few opportunities on Saturday to show it truly belongs as a BCS Conference and one of those takes place in the unfriendly surrounding of Corvallis, Ore. The Cincinnati Bearcats take the long trip west as they play the Oregon State Beavers.

Both of these teams played in New Year's Day bowl games last season and both hope to exceed expectations and at least get back to where they were a year ago. This game will go a long way in both departments as both teams are ranked heading in.

Oregon State started slow last year and after upsetting USC at home, went on a nice run that sputtered out near the end of the season when Jacquizz Rodgers went down with an injury.

"The Quizz" is back in full form this year after racking up 166 yards last week against UNLV, but his backfield mate, QB Lyle Moevao, is doubtful with an injured shoulder.

Mike Riley's team is somehow flying under the radar in the Pac-10 and while this is still somewhat of an under the radar type game, it should be a nice chance for both of these programs to showcase themselves.

A lot of people, including myself, expected this to be a rebuilding year for Cincinnati after it lost 10 starters on the defensive side of the ball. I guess coach Brian Kelly didn't get the memo, as his team has looked razor sharp on the field.

Tony Pike is back at QB running the offense and Mardy Gilyard is catching passes. Jacob Ramsey looks to be as an effective runner as there is in at least the conference, if not beyond.

Kelly reminded us that although he lost starters on defense, he still had plenty of players with a lot of game experience, and it has shown, but this will be the toughest test so far for both teams.

Oregon State is 7-2-1 against the spread as a favorite between zero and three points and is 4-1 against the spread at home against a team with a winning road record.

Cincinnati is 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 as an underdog and 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight as a road dog.

This is a good game between two of the better teams in the country, but even though Mike Reilly has NFL experience, I think the game at Rutgers shows Brian Kelly may be one of the best college coaches today. I think it will come down to that as these teams just look even.

Mitch's Pick: Cincinnati +1.

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As was true of last season, the Rodgers brothers should display their skill prominently but the question is who will make plays to take the pressure off these two stellar players and allow them to shine?  

Last season, defenses had to fear the considerable skill of Sammie Stroughter in the passing game, and opened up passes to James Rodgers, and the sure-handed catches of Shane Morales ensured the chains kept moving.  Who will replace those senior wideouts, and who will back up Jacquizz Rodgers at tailback with the untimely loss of Jeremy Francis due to family issues?

These questions, and more, plague the Beavers at the opening of the 2009-2010 season, who hopes their offense can carry them while their defense gets the time they need to gel with all the losses from last season.

Quarterback

Two senior quarterbacks, a redshirt freshman, and a highly touted transfer.

Questions?

There really aren’t many. Sean Canfield looks to be the starter for Portland State, barring miraculous recovery by Lyle Moevao and Canfield suddenly becoming severely limited.

Reportedly in camp, Canfield has been completing 70 percent of his passes, and Riley has been saying he hasn’t seen anything like it from a quarterback in camp before.

Questions for the Oregon State secondary does limit just how warm and fuzzy this feels.  The truth, however, is Canfield completed two-thirds of his passes last season with two starts and backup time. 

Do I expect him to do the same this year, over the course of the year? No, but better than 60 percent is good and we CAN expect that from the senior signal caller. No major worries, which is something that cannot be said about either of the teams in LA.

Running Back

Jacquizz Rodgers was the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year, as a freshman.  Do we expect him to get better? Yes, but he really doesn’t need to be for the success of the team. 

The questions here are about who will back him up, and spell him after 25-30 carries. He is a workhorse, but even Steven Jackson, Ken Simonton, and Yvenson Bernard needed help from time to time. 

Ryan McCants is injured, although he will be back a few games into the season. How long he will be out will depend on how fast he manages to heal. All reports give good signs he will be ready early in the season, but someone else will need to be the backup for the PSU game, and most likely the UNLV game as well.

Freshmen Jovan Stevenson and Ashton Jefferson will vie for that backup title, but so will Jordan Jenkins, a redshirt freshman playing without a scholarship.  I see Riley playing Jenkins and redshirting both Stevenson and Jefferson until McCants comes back unless a backup is actually needed to ice the game. 

Undue risks to Jacquizz will not happen, but he has shown himself to be remarkably durable, despite his season-ending injury to his shoulder last season. 

Wide Receiver

Three positions, a number of candidates, and only one proven star. 

Replacing veterans Shane Morales and Sammie Stroughter will be difficult, but practice so far has been promising.  James Rodgers returns to his flanker spot, where he will continue to make heads turn with the fly-sweep, and make daring grabs, as well as going long far more often than he did with Lyle Moevao as the signal caller. 

Darrell Catchings had a scary injury while practicing blocking, and the split end position has been in flux ever since.  Catchings being able to return will guarantee someone can create a bit of room for Rodgers to do his thing, but the two who are being groomed as his backups (and starters at the beginning of the year), Damola Adeniji and Markus Wheaton (a highly sought-after recruit) have been making some noise. 

Wheaton is a speedster, and is being groomed to backup Rodgers.  He is still awaiting being cleared by the NCAA Clearinghouse.  Adeniji has showed sure hands and has the size to be a real threat, especially in the red zone. 

The slotback position is in a completely different state than the two other wideout positions.  Two viable candidates, two playmakers. 

Casey Kjos should get the primary job, but redshirt freshman Jordan Bishop has been making some serious noise.  Seems to me that Bishop should garner some time, but history would say Kjos gets the important late-game minutes every time the game is on the line with his additional time in the system. If Kjos falters, however, Bishop will be able to quickly spell him. 

Tight End/H-back

Once again, a hearty group of solid performers without a shining star. 

With new faces at wide receiver, they should get more work as receivers, but their blocking will be needed with the young parts of the offensive line.  No problems here, but not much hope for big performances. 

Sorry to Howard Croom, Brady Camp, Joe Halahuni, and John Reese; you won’t be a major factor this season, but as any old-school tight end will tell you, if no one notices you, you’re doing something right.  One big completion a game out of this group, solid blocking and a diversionary presence, and the entire offense will be far better for it. 

Offensive Line

The oft-quoted issue with the offense this year. 

Players like Andy Levitre don’t grow on trees, despite the fact that he is built like one.  Adam Speer and Tavita Thompson will both be sorely missed as well, but Thompson’s absence early last season saw the offensive line grow without him. 

The most noise has been made about true freshman Michael Phillip, who will likely anchor the line at left tackle.  However much of a man-child this boy is, he will be a true freshman, and here’s hoping his lumps don’t take the form of blown assignments that cost Oregon State games. 

Faith in offensive line coach Cavanaugh is high however, and doubt should be removed about this based upon his production year after year turning raw talent on the line into one of the best units in the Pac-10. 

Young players make mistakes, Cav will be angry at times this season, but by the time the Beavers face USC, the line should be gelled and again one of the most physical units in the Pac. 

Keep in mind, this is just for fun, but I'm putting it all out there...If it all plays out like this, I will be a rather happy Beaver fan.

Game One: Portland State University

W.  The players won’t talk smack but I will: OSU dominates.

More importantly, the defensive line should keep Portland State running around like a… well you turn the phrase. It’s a warm-up game, with all apologies to my favorite team from the Big Sky Conference.  Will they beat the spread? Will they care to? Coming out of this with a W and no injuries is all that matters.

35-14.

Game Two: @University of Nevada at Las Vegas

W, but it will be scary.  Away game, in September, could be a loss.  This is not a BCS-bound team in the next two years by most accounts, unlike most of our September road trips lately.  Should be close, but the Rodgers brothers and Sean Canfield will provide the difference in this one.

41-28 OSU on top, but should be close at half. 21-14 or 17-14 at the half I would guess.

Game Three: University of Cincinnati

W. Revenge is not as big of a concern as the fans will make it, but OSU at home has been scary, and the crowd will be amped for this game.  The defense might start to gel here, but it may take until Arizona State for them to really start feeling dominant.

34-21 OSU gets revenge on a young defense.

Game Four: University of Arizona

W. Arizona hasn’t won in awhile and their quarterback, whomever it might be, will still be raw.  Their defense will still be good, as always, and their playmakers are there in droves.

31-24 OSU comes out hard early and coasts through the second half, relying on the defense to hold off to the end.

Game Five: @Arizona State University

W, for the first time in the Riley era.  Could easily be a loss, and the most likely stumbling block early in the Pac-10 schedule.  ASU should have a great defense, but I can’t see the offense struggling too much here, and the defense should gel before or during this game. Close fought, sealed late by an ASU interception.

24-17.

Game Six: Stanford University

W. Revenge game against the up-and-comers who I see making a bowl game this year, and for years to come with all the talent Harbaugh is bringing in and the smash-mouth style and edge he brings to the Cardinal.  OSU has too much firepower, and the defense will know what to expect from Stanford’s offense. 

Stanford will make mistakes in the passing game from the pressure OSU brings as they begin to look like world-beaters.

35-20.

Game Seven: @University of Southern California

L. Revenge for a denial of a national title game is actually a big deal to players who just felt it the year before.  The defense will be good, and this will be a really slow game, or a really fast game if you consider the way the clock will melt off. OSU keeps it close against a nubile defense, but USC will look very good in the Coliseum. 

17-24.

Game Eight: University of California at Los Angeles

W.  After breaking the incredible losing streak to UCLA by the Riley-led Beavers last year, they will make it two in a row. The Beavers should have a fly-sweep revolution in this game and I see both Quizz and James going over the hundred-yard mark before McCants comes in to seal the game. 

The game will be over by the half, but Riley will keep the foot on the pedal running the fly-sweep three times, along with McCants and Quizz for over 100 yards rushing in the third quarter.

38-20.

Game Nine: @University of California at Berkeley

W. I know I will get some flack for this call, but OSU has not lost in Berkeley in a long time.  As always, this game will be close, and a defensive struggle, and punting will play a crucial role.  Johnny Hekker has the best performance of his career, downing three punts within the 10 yard line, with two inside the five.

One interception for a touchdown makes the difference with Cal’s backup RB Shane Vereen held under 2 yards a carry, and Best has one You-tube 80+ yard run but held back otherwise.  Kevin Riley will feel the pressure, and will crack this time. 

21-14.

Game 10: University of Washington

W. Washington will progress, but will not make the top half of the conference this year.  The winning streak against the Huskies is safe for one more year.  This time the game will be over by the half, as the pro-style look Washington gives will stall against a Beaver defensive system designed well to defeat it.

34-14.

Game 11: @Washington State University

W.  Washington State will still be abysmal, as the Cougars don’t have the talent, speed or strength to truly compete in the Pac-10. I wouldn’t put a win in the mix past this group, but not against OSU. The Cougar defense will look horrible against the Rodgers brothers, but it will not be as bad as last year. 

Expect to see someone really step up in this game that you haven’t heard anything from during the rest of the season.

54-14.

Game 12: @University of Nike...I mean Oregon.

Come on, I’m a Beaver for life, had to make one crack.  If Masoli is healthy, and so is Blount, I cannot see a win here. Expect it to be a lot closer than last year though. L. I’m not going to predict a score, but it’s a war, and expect it to look like it this year.

Overall, I expect the Beavers to be tied for second in the Pac-10 with USC winning the tie-breaker.  USC will get an at-large bid to the BCS, and OSU will play in the Holiday Bowl.  I pulled out the game we should not win but will at California, but not the game they should win but will not. 

Should be a great, enlightening season for the Beavers, and I expect them to be in the Top-25 for a fourth straight season.