Stanford Football

Stanford’s offensive game plan is founded on a steady workload from running back Tyler Gaffney, but establishing the rush against the nation’s top-ranked run defense will prove especially challenging.

With or without linebacker Max Bullough, who was suspended for Wednesday’s Rose Bowl last week, Michigan State’s stingy play from its defensive front is enough to require Stanford head coach David Shaw and offensive coordinator Mike Bloomgren to adjust.

The Cardinal’s strategy Wednesday could start with quarterback Kevin Hogan to set up the workhorse Gaffney. The junior is playing in his second Rose Bowl, an impressive accomplishment for any quarterback.

Though he’s spending New Year’s Day playing in Pasadena, Calif., for a second straight season, Hogan’s brief career has had “peaks and valleys,” as Shaw described in the coach’s press conference on Monday.

“He’s never had a bad game,” Shaw said. “He’s been great some weeks…he’s been good some weeks. You never judge a game on one or two bad plays, which every quarterback is going to have.”

Hogan encountered one of those games with a bad play or two during Stanford’s last trip to Los Angeles, and they happened to come at inopportune times. He threw a red-zone interception in the Cardinal’s Nov. 16 loss at USC. A touchdown on the possession would have sealed a Stanford win, and perhaps been enough to earn the Cardinal a spot in the BCS Championship next week.

Still, Shaw said he’s pleased with Hogan’s direction, which the coach said “is upward,” citing changes the staff made to the game plan down the stretch of the regular season. Those tweaks were evident in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Hogan is coming into the Rose Bowl off one of those great weeks—perhaps the best of his time at Stanford. He went for 277 yards passing and another 24 rushing, and threw for a touchdown. And he did it all against the aggressive pass-rush defense of Arizona State.

The rushing yards are particularly noteworthy. Hogan isn’t used as a traditional dual-threat quarterback in Stanford’s power-based offense. Nevertheless, his ability to take off running can be an X-factor for the Cardinal.

He rolled off big gains against Oregon, as well as in both wins over Arizona State. Hogan will need to be light on his feet and quick to react to opportunities against the aggressive Michigan State pursuit.

Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi has confounded and frustrated one offense after another in the Spartans’ run to the Big Ten championship. Bullough is unavailable, but Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio said in his press conference Monday that Darien Harris and Kyler Elsworth will handle middle linebacking duties. Neither are exactly slouches filling in for Bullough.

And while the Spartans run-stop defense commands the most attention, attacking Michigan State with the pass is no walk in the park, either. Hogan’s primary big-play weapon, junior Ty Montgomery, could draw high-level NFL draft prospect, Darqueze Dennard.

That makes the return of a fully healthy Devon Cajuste to the lineup all the more important for Stanford. Cajuste was central to Hogan’s performance against Arizona State, and the big man will again be a crucial component of Stanford’s passing offense.

Shaw said Gaffney’s performance this season “has taken a ton of pressure off” Hogan. But in the Rose Bowl, it may be Hogan who is taking Michigan State’s pressure off of Gaffney.

Shayne Skov has had a very difficult and painful college football career, but it's a testament to his toughness that he's bounced back in his redshirt senior season.

Skov is an aggressive linebacker who underwent three surgeries after a severe knee injury in 2011 and then had a disappointing comeback campaign in 2012.

But this past season, Skov has looked like his old self. The questions about his knee and leg will continue, but there's a lot to like about his game.

Run Support

This is the strongest point of Skov's game. Some people would say that he "has a knack" for being around the ball, but I hate that saying because it implies that it's more about luck than skill, which is untrue.

Skov is an instinctual player, but it's clear that he studies hard, quickly diagnoses plays, makes a decision and follows through with it. He's relentless in pursuit of the ball and strong at the point of attack.

He lines up in the middle of the field on almost every play and is best when the offense runs the ball between the tackles.

This play shows Skov's ability to hold his ground, let the play develop in front of him and then get after the ball-carrier quickly and drag him to the ground.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frs1xW0Ytlo,24

Skov keeps his head in the backfield and is extremely strong, which allows him to stuff run plays along the line of scrimmage and up the middle. He also has the ability to stack and shed his blocker effectively while keeping his eyes in the backfield. After watching Skov, it's clear that offenses respect and try to neutralize him.

Oregon did its best to always have an offensive lineman sprint up to the next level and get a shot at Skov to delay his pursuit of the ball. There was even one play where Skov was double-teamed by offensive linemen at the second level, which is pretty rare.

They knew that Skov was the key to the defense, yet he was still able to have a great game and stifle Oregon's uptempo attack.

In an example of a play from that game, Skov shows off his range. He follows the running back on the read-option and tracks him down to make a nice tackle behind the line of scrimmage. He takes a great angle to the ball and shows solid closing speed in making the stop.

Some say that his ability to pursue the ball outside the tackles is poor, but I believe his range is more than sufficient for an inside linebacker.

Skov is not especially quick in small spaces, but his ability to read plays is exceptional, and his first step and pursuit are impressive as well. This lack of quickness can hurt him in passing situations at times, though.

Coverage

Skov is not often used in coverage with Stanford. He just isn't quick enough to stay with many running backs, which could somewhat limit his stock in the NFL.

There's certainly some extra work that could be put in there, and Skov likely doesn't focus much on preparing for coverage because he isn't often asked to do it. If he isn't focusing on stopping the run, Skov is often blitzing. 

Pass Rush

Skov's most underrated attribute is his ability to effectively blitz the quarterback and create havoc in the backfield.

He isn't really a pass-rusher necessarily, as he usually attacks between the center and guard or guard and tackle and relies more on speed, power and timing instead of actual pass-rushing moves.

There are some plays when Skov effectively reads the line and attacks a gap where he can get to the quarterback, although he sometimes comes in out of control and can't break down quickly enough to get his hands on the quarterback.

This is what happens here against Brett Hundley, although Skov still forces Hundley to roll out. But Skov's best play is when he times the snap perfectly and shoots through the line to disrupt the quarterback and try to bring him down.

Here are three separate instances of this, which all seem like they have to be offsides in real time (and listen to Mike Mayock's awful commentary in the Notre Dame one), but the replay shows how incredible Skov's timing is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frs1xW0Ytlo,217

Skov finished his career with 15 sacks and had an impressive 10 quarterback hurries in 2013, which was definitely due in part to his increased freedom to blitz and roam.

If Skov is given similar free reign in the NFL, he could have some Troy Polamalu-style sacks. But he also needs to control himself and not overrun plays, which he does more on the blitz than in run support.

But when Skov gets his hands on the ball-carrier, he almost always brings him down.

Tackling

Skov is, generally, a very good and effective tackler. He hits hard, makes direct contact, wraps up well when he's on the move and can dive and make shoestring tackles, too.

Skov pursues the ball hard, chases down every play and really plays with an edge. He also tries to make plays when it doesn't seem like there is anything available, which he did here against Oregon.

This is Skov at his best; using his straight-line speed, hustle and aggression to chase down a play and attack the ball.  

But he does have a tendency to tackle up high when he takes on an incoming rusher head-on and relies on pure strength and will to bring down the ball-carrier.

While this tactic works most of the time in college due to Skov's superior strength, he needs to change this habit when he gets to the NFL because he'll probably get run over.

As it is, Skov still sometimes gets driven backward or has to rely on help from teammates to bring down the carrier when he gets "stuck" with his back straight up and has no real leverage to drive the man back.

These screen shots from two different games show Skov in situations where he hits too high.  

The silver lining here is that tackling is very coachable, and Skov will have time to develop and work on lowering his shoulder to the ball-carrier's waist and driving his legs through the tackle.

Skov has the strength and desire necessary to become a consistent, fundamentally sound tackler in the NFL, but he'll need some attention and practice with it.

Measurables and Intangibles

Skov comes in at an ideal 6'3", 244 pounds. He's a high-intensity player who wears a mohawk and face paint during the season. His passion and energy are evident on the field, and he is a leader and team captain for Stanford. 

Skov finished the 2013 regular season with 10 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and a career-high 100 tackles.

This story discusses his interesting childhood growing up in Mexico and attending three different high schools. The only blemish on Skov's record is a DUI from February 2012, for which he was suspended at the beginning of the 2012 season.

His knee injury will certainly be questioned during the draft process. In the fourth game of the 2011 season, Skov suffered a gruesome injury where he tore his ACL, MCL and fractured his tibia. The injury required three surgeries.

Skov was noticeably slower in the 2012 season, but he has looked much more confident and explosive in 2013. NFL doctors and GMs will want assurance that he'll keep up his 2013 form in the future.

Projection

Skov fits best where Stanford uses him: on the inside in their 3-4 defense. It allows him to focus mostly on stopping the run but also gives him the ability to blitz and be a field general.

But Skov also has the strength and tackling ability to be a SAM linebacker in a 4-3 if he gets a little stronger and improves his tackling. The injury will definitely make some teams cautious, but as long as he checks out medically it shouldn't be too much of an issue.

I have him in the 45-50 range right now, and I think he'd be a perfect early to middle second-round pick for a team who wants a strong linebacker that can start right away with plenty of room to develop further.

There was a time when the styles of Michigan State and Stanford were the norm for the collegiate world. As two teams that like to run the ball and play good defense, today's Spartans and Cardinal epitomize a time that has seemed to pass for most college teams.

For the second year in a row, the Rose Bowl, in all its pageantry and history, becomes the place were "old school" football reigns. In a landscape littered with pro-style attacks taking on spread teams, or two spread teams facing off, seeing the Spartans and Cardinal duke it out on the big stage will come as a relief from the fast-break football.

It is not the same end to an era that we saw with Nebraska and the option from the Power I, or Oklahoma saying farewell to the Wishbone. This type of football is far from out of mode on the collegiate landscape. Defenses are not catching up to the style, as they are with other systems.

Rather, this game stands as a testament to coaches finding a way to make it work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyFc1S6kdtI

In an era when the best athletes are routinely shuttled over to offense to help a coach get more electrifying playmakers on the field, both Stanford and Michigan State have a plethora of athletes on defense. Players like Ed Reynolds and Darqueze Dennard, who could likely be at home on offenses featuring exciting spread looks, are doing big things on the other side of the ball.

This game is also more than merely about having players on defense. It's about two teams that refuse to make excuses. As offenses explode all over the nation and plenty of head coaches and defensive coordinators chalk it up to new systems, the Cardinal and Spartans keep playing great defense.

As teams like Oregon and Arizona State line up looking to explode for big points in the Pac-12, it is Stanford that offers no excuses. They don't talk "bend but don't break." Instead the Cardinal go out and try and break the opposition.

The same goes for Michigan State, in a Big Ten that is transitioning to the spread in various forms. Mark Dantonio's team, coming off a 7-6 campaign in 2012, doubled down on its approach. Andrew Maxwell gave way to Connor Cook, and now the Spartans are sitting at 12-1, looking to win a Rose Bowl.

While players such as Telvin Smith at Florida State and C.J. Mosley at Alabama speak to the new breed of linebacker. Max Bullough at Michigan State and Shayne Skov at Stanford stand as throwback, classic interior linebackers still getting it done. 

What was once standard, two-back sets, tight ends who block and teams that play defense is now rare in the game. With teams moving toward big offense, big numbers and scoring at will, Michigan State and Stanford offer a respite from the scoreboard-abusing numbers.

Enjoy the Rose Bowl, the rare meeting of two teams that are largely conventional by nature.

With three BCS bowl berths, two Pac-12 championships and a 34-6 record after three seasons, it’s no wonder Stanford head coach David Shaw would be mentioned as a candidate for brand-name coaching vacancies.

But with every rumor that Shaw quickly shoots down, he’s making a resounding statement: When he pitches Stanford as a brand-name program, he believes it.

The latest rumors tied Shaw to NFL openings, including with the Houston Texans. But ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter tweeted Sunday that Shaw won’t leave Stanford for that position.

Houston isn’t the only spot in the Lone Star State with rumored interest in the two-time Pac-12 champion. Kevin Sherrington of The Dallas Morning News wrote, "Shaw should be at the top of [Texas athletic director Steve] Patterson’s list" of replacements for resigning head coach Mack Brown.

Brown’s announced departure after 16 years leading the Longhorns is having a giant domino effect on the college football landscape. While there may be a seismic shift as a result, the Tree should be left standing. 

Texas is as celebrated a brand name as there is in college football. However, through the efforts of Shaw, both as head coach and as an assistant coach under predecessor Jim Harbaugh, Stanford is establishing itself as a brand name. 

And what some may see as a recruiting speed bump—Stanford's rigorous academic standards—Shaw incorporates as a selling point. 

"I will never understand having the ability to go to Stanford and not," he said at Pac-12 media day in July. "Stanford University, every year—forget about athletics—is at the top of student satisfaction." 

Indeed, Stanford ranked No. 1 in a Forbes ranking of top American universities published two days prior to Pac-12 media day. Student satisfaction accounted for 22.5 percent of the equation. 

As an alumnus, it’s no wonder Shaw believes so firmly in the program’s potential. But perhaps more significant than his background as a student-athlete there in the 1990s is the investment he made in reviving Stanford a decade later.  

The program's woes before Shaw arrived as a member of Harbaugh's staff are well documented, and the coach knows it. 

After a 1-11 season in 2006, Shaw said many thought Stanford "should drop down a level in football.'' But after beating Arizona State on Dec. 7 to win its second straight Pac-12 championship, Shaw said that talk has been put to rest.

The growth of which Shaw was so integral is an interesting juxtaposition to coaching at Texas. The next Longhorns coach is inheriting a brand name, which Brown, Dana X. Bible and Darrell K. Royal established.

Stanford is the brand name Shaw helped build. And in turn, the university athletic department has reciprocated.

Stanford doesn't publicize coaching salaries, but Shaw alluded to competitive wages keeping elite assistants there. 

"It says a lot about what Stanford University has done, financially making it better for the coaches so we can have continuity," he said following the Pac-12 Championship Game. 

A commitment from the university begets the same from Shaw. And in turn, the Cardinal have the commitments from high-level recruits rolling in. 

When Shaw gives recruits his pitch for the long-term vision of Stanford football, it's not empty rhetoric. It's a future in which he's repeatedly proven to be invested. 

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. 

In the way it ought to be every year, the champions of the Big Ten conference, the Michigan State Spartans, go up against the champions of the Pac-12, the Stanford Cardinal, in the latest edition of the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day in Pasadena.

Stanford just won the Rose Bowl last year, its fourth straight bowl cover. Michigan State, meanwhile, is playing in the Rose Bowl for the first time in 25 years. The Pac-12 entry has been installed as a four-point favorite for this Rose Bowl, which follows the recent trend that has seen the west-coast entry defeat the Big Ten representative in five of the last six meetings.

Point spread: Cardinal opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 41. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 37.6-35.3 Spartans

Why the Spartans can cover the Rose Bowl spread

Michigan State started 3-0 this season, lost a tough game at Notre Dame and hasn't lost since, going 8-0 in conference play while holding five Big Ten opponents to six points or fewer. Michigan State then pulled off one of the great victories in program history, upsetting supposedly BCS Championship Game-bound Ohio State in the Big Ten title game 34-24.

Offensively the Spartans have averaged 182 yards per game on the ground and 203 YPG through the air. Defensively, they lead the nation both overall and vs. the run, giving up just 81 YPG on the ground. Michigan State relished the role of underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game, and they're probably doing the same heading into this Rose Bowl, too.

They are 9-1-1 ATS in their past 11 trips as underdogs, according to the Odds Shark NCAA football database.

Why the Cardinal can cover the Rose Bowl spread

Last year, Stanford lost two games, then won its last eight in a row, upsetting Oregon, winning the Pac-12 Championship Game and the Rose Bowl along the way. This year, the Cardinal lost two games, upset the Ducks again and won the conference championship game again (this time beating high-powered Arizona State in Tempe 38-14).

The Cardinal have averaged 211 yards per game rushing this season, 202 YPG passing, while defensively they rank in the top 15 in several key defensive categories. They're also now 16-2 SU, 10-7-1 ATS with sophomore Kevin Hogan starting at quarterback. They have covered the spread in four straight bowls.

Smart Pick

This Rose Bowl is a great matchup for those who love old-time football. Both teams like to shove the ball down opponents' throats on offense and punch them in the mouth on defense. Don't expect a shootout, despite what the computer is predicting.

Not a whole lot separates these two teams on the field, but according to the Sagarin ratings, the Cardinal played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country this year, while the Spartans played the 56th-rated schedule.

Stanford beat Wisconsin in last year's Rose Bowl 20-14. Expect a similar result for this year's game. In what should be a real grinder, give the points and go with the Cardinal.

Trends:

• Stanford is 4-0 ATS past four bowl games
• Michigan State is 14-1 SU past 15 games overall
• Spartans are 9-1-1 ATS past 11 games as underdogs

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

Seasons change and new contenders rise in the Pac-12, but a constant Stanford stands as the conference’s standard. Its 38-14 rout of Arizona State in Saturday’s conference championship game sealed a fourth straight BCS bowl appearance and the program’s first consecutive Rose Bowl bids since 1970-1971.

“Four straight BCS games…wow, that’s a lot,” head coach David Shaw said in his postgame press conference.

That kind of sustained success in the ever-changing world of college football really is a lot and separates the Cardinal not only from other programs in the Pac-12 but also around the nation.

“Facts are three teams in the last four [regular seasons] have won 10-plus games: Stanford, Oregon and Alabama,” Shaw said.

Oregon is the team in that class by which Stanford’s been able to directly measure its progress. The Cardinal were a clear second fiddle to the Ducks the first two years of their four-year BCS run, but back-to-back wins have elevated Stanford to clear front-running status.

Saturday’s win was the Cardinal’s 11th on the season, the most in the Pac-12, and it was emphatic. They built a quick, 28-7 lead early in the second quarter on the strength of running back Tyler Gaffney’s three touchdown carries.

Gaffney returned to Stanford after a year playing professional baseball. Fittingly, he arrived to the postgame press conference wearing a baseball cap—only, it read “2013 Pac-12 Champions” rather than State College Spikes.

“This is what you ask for in college football, these opportunities,” Gaffney said.

Gaffney won Most Valuable Player honors for his three-score, 138-yard performance. He has an opportunity to put a cap on his career at next month’s Rose Bowl, a game he watched from the stands last year as a fan.

Though his path was different, Gaffney is part of a senior class that saw nothing but success at Stanford over the course of four years—the entire duration of a typical college career.

Linebacker Shayne Skov theorized that no team has more seniors—particularly fifth-year seniors—than Stanford. So with talent responsible for much success leaving the program, can the Cardinal possibly keep it running?

Count on it, said Skov.

“It’s all based on effort and being trained,” he said. “We’ve had the fabulous opportunity of watching other guys come before us: Dave DeCastro, Andrew Luck, Bo McNally…there are so many guys that I can look to and say not only are they great human beings, but they’re great leaders.”

Stanford embraces a kind of next-man-up ethos that transcends game days and is woven into the culture of the program. The mentality was on display Saturday, in plays like sophomore safety Zach Hoffpauir stuffing De’Marieya Nelson on a fourth-down stand at the goal line.

An Arizona State touchdown would have given the Sun Devils life at 31-21. Instead, the turnover on downs set up a backbreaking, 99-yard drive that showed off the full range of sophomore quarterback Kevin Hogan’s skill set.

Hogan has gone through a season of ups and downs, but Saturday was a decided peak. He went 12-of-18 for 277 yards and a touchdown, a 24-yard strike to junior wide receiver Ty Montgomery at the culmination of that game-sealing, fourth-quarter possession.

“The funny thing is, this is Year 1-and-a-half for him as a starter. He’s got two years left,” Shaw said. “He makes a mistake, and he comes back fighting full speed.”

That’s two more years to refine the “big arm” Shaw touted Saturday and continue to put defenses on their heels with his mobility.

“He could have been MVP of this game, as well,” Shaw added.

Hogan lives in the very long shadow of Andrew Luck, the three-year starter, 2012 No. 1 overall NFL draft pick and most recognizable face of Stanford’s ongoing dynasty. But as Skov detailed, the bar predecessors have set within the Cardinal program fuels its continued success.

“You learn as a young guy coming in what that standard is and what that expectation is,” he said. “When it’s your time to lead, you follow in the footsteps of those guys.

“Hopefully those young guys, [the seniors] are demanding the same of them,” he said. “It’s a collective effort, and it’s one guy after the next.”

All quotes obtained firsthand.

Despite the fact that Stanford is ranked No. 7 in the nation and defeated Arizona State earlier in the season, the Cardinal are three-point underdogs in Saturday's Pac-12 Championship Game against the Sun Devils. Stanford can do several things to improve its chances of winning, however.

There is no question that Arizona State has looked like the better team recently, and home-field advantage in the desert will certainly help, but Stanford won't go quietly. A Rose Bowl berth is needed in order for the Cardinal to salvage the season, and David Shaw's squad will be motivated to earn it.

Here are the three biggest keys that Stanford must follow in order to upset Arizona State in what is sure to be an exciting Pac-12 Championship Game.

Provide Heavy Dose of Tyler Gaffney

The Cardinal have largely been about playing great defense and establishing the run on offense over the past several years, although that fact was somewhat clouded by the spectacular play of quarterback Andrew Luck. Now that Luck is in the NFL, though, there is no doubt that Stanford's running attack rules the day.

The Cardinal have boasted some impressive running backs in recent seasons, but it can be argued that Tyler Gaffney tops them all.

He left Stanford to play minor league baseball last season, but he has returned with a vengeance as a senior. He has ideal size at 6'1" and 221 lbs., which has translated into the best season of his collegiate career. Gaffney has racked up 1,485 yards and 17 touchdowns, and he has an outside chance at breaking Toby Gerhart's single-season rushing mark, according to Pac-12 insider David Lombardi:

Gaffney would need to put up some insane numbers in order to do that, but he'll likely be given every opportunity against Arizona State. As good as the Sun Devils offense is, the defense is equally suspect. Gaffney's usage has increased noticeably down the stretch, as he had at least 24 carries in three of the past four games. He'll need to exceed that number significantly in order for Stanford to go to the Rose Bowl.

Pressure Taylor Kelly

Perhaps the biggest driving force behind Arizona State's surprising campaign has been the play of junior quarterback Taylor Kelly. The second-year starter has carried on the long tradition of excellent Sun Devils quarterbacks, and he will need to be great for ASU on Saturday.

That is especially true since running back Marion Grice is not expected to play, according to Jerry Hinnen of CBSSports.com.

Not only is Grice Arizona State's leading rusher, but he is also among the team's top pass-catchers with 50 receptions for 438 yards and six touchdowns. His absence will put a great deal of emphasis on Kelly since he may not have a consistent running game to lean on, and he won't have his primary safety valve in the passing game as well.

Even so, Kelly will be dangerous due to the incredible progress he has made over the course of his time at Arizona State, as evidenced by this tweet courtesy of AZCentral.com's Doug Haller:

Kelly is among the premier quarterbacks in the Pac-12 due to his passing acumen as well as his ability to do damage with his legs. Stanford has an elite defense, though, which is tied for 10th in the nation with 35 sacks.

If the Cardinal can get in Kelly's face early and often, they will disrupt Arizona State's potent offense. That would do wonders in terms of helping Stanford pull off the upset.

Let Kevin Hogan Manage the Game

Kevin Hogan is no Andrew Luck. It doesn't take a rocket scientist or even a football expert to see that. Truth be told, he may not be anything more than an average college quarterback, but that hasn't stopped the Cardinal from winning with him.

In many cases, though, Stanford has won despite him. He hasn't built upon his strong 2012 season, but he can be effective as a caretaker for Stanford's run-heavy offense.

Hogan completed nearly 72 percent of his passes last season, which would be a great performance in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Even if he doesn't make big plays down the field, he can be a game manager who cedes the spotlight to Gaffney. Hogan did that quite well in Stanford's win over Notre Dame, according to Lombardi:

He did end up throwing a second interception in that game, which ultimately didn't come back to haunt the Cardinal, but he can't afford to turn the ball over against Arizona State. His nine interceptions are a bit too much for a game manager, so he'll need to rein that in. As long as he makes high-percentage throws and does enough to keep the threat of the pass alive, Gaffney will be able to do the heavy lifting.

If Hogan is forced into winning the game on his own, however, the Cardinal may be in trouble.

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Don't expect Stanford head coach David Shaw to dwell on his team's 42-28 victory over Arizona State earlier this season as he prepares the Cardinal for Saturday's Pac-12 Championship tilt. 

"That game is a long time ago. It's almost like a different season," Shaw said on Tuesday's teleconference call. "The first four or five games of every year, you're probing. When you get to this point in the season, you know what your strengths and your weaknesses are."

For the second year, Stanford faces an opponent from the Pac-12 South it defeated in the regular season. However, the preparation for meeting Arizona State, which the Cardinal played on Sept. 21, differs vastly from last year's conference title game, Shaw said. Stanford beat UCLA 35-17, just six days before the teams met in a 27-24 barnburner for the Pac-12 title. 

"It was tough when you beat a team by two or three scores and played extremely, to come back...[in] six days," Shaw said. "This one's a little bit different...It feels like a new game with two new teams." 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5sljcvJJPU

Arizona State rallied from the loss at Stanford, the Sun Devils' first game in their Pac-12 Conference slate, to win the next eight. Their season-long maturation earned the Sun Devils hosting duties Saturday. 

"Last year we were fortunate enough to have it at home...and it's going to be loud. [Stanford players] know it's a completely different world from last year," Shaw said. 

Fans packed into Sun Devil Stadium for Arizona State's season finale against Arizona for the 12th-most well-attended game in program history. Sun Devils head coach Todd Graham has made a concerted effort since his team sewed up hosting duties for its devotees to arrive in full force. 

If Stanford wins at Sun Devil Stadium, it will be the first visitor to do so this season. 

"You watch them dominate teams we struggled with," Shaw said, alluding to the Cardinal's three-point win over Washington and loss at USC. Arizona State beat the Huskies and Trojans by 29 and 21 points, and both games were in Tempe, Ariz. 

Todd Graham Credits His Teaching Background for Arizona State Success

Graham has come a long way from his humble beginnings as a high school assistant and coaching middle-school-aged children in Texas. Now he faces one game with a shot at the Rose Bowl. He's been a Div. I coach now for 13 seasons, and a head coach for eight of them, but he still credits his roots for his success. 

"Our model is the teaching model," Graham said of his coaching staff. "That's how we were able to go from one of the most penalized teams to least penalized, because we actually educated our players on the rules." 

Graham inherited a team that was penalized 104 times for 1,037 yards in 2011. In 2012, that dropped to 55 flags for 454 yards, and this season Arizona State has been penalized 44 times for just 342 yards. 

Graham said his past teaching world history has also helped his mission at Arizona State. He started researching the program's history immediately, he said, and one name repeatedly jumped out at him: Pat Tillman. 

Tillman was the defensive star of Arizona State's last Rose Bowl team in 1996, an academic All-American who is recognized today for his service to his country. He famously left the National Football League in 2002 to enlist in the United States Army. 

"This is the kind of heart, the kind of character that we want to bring here," Graham said.

The message has resonated. Himself a former conference Defensive Player of the Year, Tillman's name now graces the award. Fittingly, Arizona State defensive tackle Will Sutton has won the honor each of the last two seasons. 

On Steve Sarkisian Leaving Washington for USC 

Neither Graham nor Shaw were particularly interested in offering up opinions on former Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian moving within the conference to take the vacancy at USC. Shaw did however dive into the difficult decision-making process a coach faces when changing jobs. 

"When things like this happen, it's usually never just one thing. It's never just, 'Hey, they're going to pay me $10 more, I'm going to go down there,'" Shaw said. "There's always 10 to 20 different things why coaches do what they do." 

Stanford is Shaw's ninth stop, though his alma mater is also his first head coaching opportunity. He followed predecessor Jim Harbaugh from the University of San Diego in 2006 and has remained with the Cardinal in some capacity ever since. 

Shaw did have one opinion pertaining specifically to this situation, however.  

"This move probably puts a little hot sauce on the rivalry between USC and Washington," he said. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqwPa1jfYF8

In a subtle nod to the war of words between Shaw and Sarkisian in October, after Sarkisian accused Stanford players of faking injury to slow down the game's tempo in a 31-28 Cardinal win, Shaw added: "Maybe that'll get the Washington fans for being so mad at me about last year." 

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. 

If there is one game Arizona State would like to have back, it would be its loss to Stanford on September 21. On Saturday, the Sun Devils have a chance to exact revenge in the Pac 12 conference championship, and they are favored to do it.

Point spread: Arizona State opened as three-point favorites on the Pac-12 Championship Game odds menu; the total was 56 early in the week. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 35-31 Arizona State

Why Stanford can cover the spread

The Cardinal already beat ASU once this season, albeit in Palo Alto, in the third game of the season for both teams. After opening up a 29-0 halftime lead, Stanford coasted to a 42-28 win. The Cardinal defense has been the catalyst in most of its wins this season. When it is playing very well, there is no scoring points on this team.

They also arrive riding an 8-1 against the spread streak as an underdog, according to Odds Shark.

Why Arizona State can cover the spread

Though the final score in the first meeting was a double-digit win, what it doesn't indicate is the never-give-up will the Sun Devils played with. Since opening the season 3-2, the Devils have won seven straight by an average final of 44-21, scoring 44 or more in five of those games.

Mix in revenge with that kind of offensive prowess, and you can make an argument for the dog.

Smart Pick

Because this game is being played in Tempe, the Sun Devils are at an advantage with the 12th man in the stands. Stanford has proven it has one of the best stop units against spread attacks, but coach Todd Graham's Sun Devils are 7-0 straight up at home this season, while their margin of victory in Tempe is an average of 29.1 points per win.

Betting Trends

• Stanford is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of Arizona State's last 14 games
• Stanford is 8-1 ATS past nine games as underdog

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.