Stanford Football

Stanford will take on Arizona State in the Pac-12 championship game on Dec. 7, hoping to beat the Sun Devils for the second time this season. A win, which would give give the Cardinal its second straight conference title, would undoubtedly force pundits to recognize Stanford's position atop the Pac-12.

When the Pac-12 comes to mind, the talk always seems to revolve around Oregon, especially with USC struggling to climb back to national prominence. The Ducks have the hip uniforms and the remarkable facilities, allowing them to make a splash on the national radar. And in truth, UO has built something special in Eugene.

However, with a victory come Dec. 7, it will be the Cardinal that have hoisted the hardware in back-to-back seasons. It will be those same Cardinal that stopped Oregon two years in a row on what many thought would be possible BCS Championship Game seasons for the Ducks.

Stanford is more than just those two wins, though. This team, with a Pac-12 Championship win, would be sitting at 46-7 over the last four seasons, including a 33-5 Pac-12 record. With David Shaw at the helm for three of those four seasons, and for two Pac-12 Championships, it would be less about him continuing the run of Jim Harbaugh, and more about him building on that success.

As Stanford football notes, these seniors—with the help of some star talent that left for the NFL early—have built a lot in their four years. 

More than just building, the Cardinal are building a champion out of that success.

This Stanford program, much like its coach, is the real deal. A win over the Sun Devils would be a firmly planted flag to let the nation know that the Pac-12 is the Cardinal's conference and the Ducks just live there. By laying Arizona State to bed next weekend, it would be clear that the road to the conference title runs through The Farm.

Of course, that is all predicated on the Cardinal getting a victory over the Sun Devils, likely on the road in Tempe. The Sun Devils team that the Cardinal made light work of in September, winning 42-28 in Palo Alto, is not the same squad Stanford will be facing next weekend. Since that September contest, the Sun Devils have ripped off eight wins and enter the Pac-12 Championship as a team looking to avenge the early-season loss.

The Cardinal will have its hands full with running back Marion Grice, if he's healthy, as well as quarterback Taylor Kelly and defensive linemen Will Sutton and Carl Bradford; all of whom have come into their own in the back half of the season. A win will not come easy, but the rewards will be bountiful. 

Shaw's team will hoist the trophy and set up the travel details for a Rose Bowl trip for the second year in a row. A win will also mean the nation has to start recognizing the Cardinal for what they are: the class of the Pac-12, sitting on back-to-back titles. 

Stanford and Notre Dame renew their rivalry when the two meet on Saturday night.

Heading into the game, the 9-2 Cardinal are opening up as heavy favorites against the 8-3 Fighting Irish. According to Vegas Insider, they favored by -14.

It's not difficult to see why they get the edge, either.

Stanford is the eighth-ranked team in the country, having beaten Oregon, UCLA and Arizona State. Its two losses have come on the road by a combined nine points. Notre Dame does have wins against the Sun Devils and Michigan State, but it has also lost to Michigan and Pittsburgh.

Regardless, it should still be an interesting game, with plenty of compelling storylines to follow throughout the action.

Which Tommy Rees Will Show up?

In Notre Dame's three losses, Tommy Rees has completed less than half of his passes and thrown six touchdowns to seven interceptions. In the Fighting Irish's eight wins, he's hitting 57.1 percent of his passes and has a TD-INT ratio of 19-4.

Suffice it to say that Rees' performance will have a large bearing on how this game unfolds. He can't win the game single-handedly, but he can lose it by throwing picks that kill Notre Dame's offensive momentum and give the Cardinal great field position.

Stanford is giving up 259 yards a game and ranks 53rd in passing efficiency defense. In addition, the Cardinal have intercepted 10 passes in their 11 games, good enough for only 68th.

Rees should have some success Saturday, which would be a boost for Notre Dame.

Will Stanford Dig Itself into an Early Hole?

In the loss to Utah, Stanford found itself down 21-14 at half, a lead which grew to 24-14 in the third quarter and then 27-14 in the fourth.  The Cardinal made a late push, but it wasn't enough to undo all the bad things they had done earlier in the game.

It was a similar story in the upset at the hands of USC. The Trojans got a 17-7 lead in the second quarter and were able to keep the Cardinal at bay long enough to allow Andre Heidari to kick what would be the game-winning field goal with 19 seconds to go.

The longer Stanford takes to get into the game, the more it leaves itself open to the upset.

It's no coincidence that in the wins over Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona State and UCLA, the Cardinal got up early and were able to control the game in the second half.

Can the Cardinal Strike that Offensive Balance?

Stanford is at its best when it can run and pass the ball with equal success. The runs up the middle help to suck in the defense and make it vulnerable to the big play over the top. That, in turn, causes the secondary to back up, and it opens holes for the running back and allows short throws over the middle.

In their nine wins, the Cardinal are averaging 209.8 yards on the ground and 202.8 yards through the air. When Stanford has lost, those averages swing ever so slightly toward the passing game, at 176.5 and 186.5, respectively.

As long as neither Kevin Hogan nor Tyler Gaffney are tasked with shouldering the load alone offensively, the Cardinal should be able to stave off any upset bid.

Note: All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.

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The College Football Playoff will shape the sport's future, and a key cornerstone could take a cue from college football's past. 

Prominent nonconference rivalries are taking center stage this week, including Stanford's tilt with Notre Dame. Both are ranked in the BCS standings—Stanford at No. 8, Notre Dame at No. 25. One of the two has played in a BCS bowl in each of the last three seasons, including both last year. Stanford has an opportunity to make it four straight years with a win in next week's Pac-12 Championship Game.

This is a marquee matchup, and with both programs trending in a positive direction, will continue to be in the initial years of the College Football Playoff era. 

"It's great for us, I think it's great for Notre Dame and I think it's great for college football," Stanford head coach David Shaw said on Tuesday's Pac-12 coaches teleconference call.

The Notre Dame-Stanford rivalry has truly taken off only in the last 16 years, but it's rooted in some of the most rich traditions of college football. Knute Rockne was the Fighting Irish's head coach when the two programs first met in 1925, and Pop Warner led Stanford as The Bootleg's David Lombardi notes on Twitter.  

It's a nice nod to the game's past while also mapping out its next phase of evolution. The College Football Playoff promises to change how programs approach the season in their effort to win over selection committee support.  

"I would like to see the component of strength of schedule so we can go back to seeing great teams playing each other out of conference across the country," Texas head coach Mack Brown told USA Today's Paul Myerberg. 

Brown touches on a very important aspect of the prominent, nonconference game. Strength of schedule is one of the key components expected to shape the College Football Playoff. That benefits programs like Stanford and Notre Dame, since few face slates as rigorous as theirs. The Cardinal and Fighting Irish both rank in the top 30 of the Sagarin Ratings for strength of schedule. Comparatively, none of the BCS Top Five has a schedule ranked better than No. 39. 

Big-time games also beget big-time performances, as Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly addressed in his weekly press conference, per UND.com. 

"Stanford forces that out of you, because [its top 10-ranking] gets your attention," Kelly said. 

Shaw sees it the same way. 

"This will be another one of those games that goes right down to the end," he said.

More of these pairings aren't just good for teams looking to bolster their playoff resumes. It's also a win for college football fans. Consider the Clemson-Georgia rivalry, which went dormant a decade ago. The programs renewed it this season, and it produced one of the most exciting affairs of the 2013 season. 

The two meet again to kickoff 2014 in Athens, Ga. 

Last year on the week Stanford knocked Oregon from the BCS Championship race, Alabama beat up on Football Championship Subdivision cellar-dweller, Western Carolina. Uniformity in conference scheduling looks like one of the changes the College Football Playoff will prompt. The SEC appears to be headed toward a nine-game schedule, as B/R SEC Lead Writer Barrett Sallee examined.

The Big Ten is implementing a nine-game schedule in 2016, joining the Big 12 and Pac-12. 

Whether a nine-game conference slate will eliminate the all-too-prevalent SEC-FCS matchups in late November remains to be seen. The additional in-conference date could simply move those lopsided games to September, but fewer available dates means less room for filler. 

Might Notre Dame and Stanford having a guaranteed, high-profile date every season become a trend in the changing landscape? 

"I would hope so," Shaw said. "It’s positive for all of us to play really hard, physical games late in November."

With victories last week, the Stanford Cardinal and Arizona State Sun Devils have clinched spots in the Pac-12 Championship. That renders Stanford's game against Notre Dame virtually meaningless to its Rose Bowl hopes. But it will need to focus on a few areas if it hopes to secure a Pac-12 title.

One area Stanford should focus on is working a second receiver into the passing game. That either means getting Devon Cajuste or Michael Rector involved more.

Cajuste is Stanford's second-leading receiver, but he's had just one catch in the last four weeks while recovering from injury. Meanwhile, Rector had seven of his 11 receptions on the year in that same span.

After Ty Montgomery's five-touchdown performance against Cal, it's a sure bet that the Sun Devils will do everything they can to slow him down. For the Cardinal, it would be a huge asset to have a second option that Kevin Hogan feels comfortable with.

Then again, maybe Montgomery is the option no matter what the coverage is. As seen in the highlights of his five-touchdown performance below, Stanford will find a way to get Montgomery the ball:

A second area of focus will be on red-zone offense. In Stanford's recent loss to USC, it made four trips to the red zone and only came up with 10 points. The two non-scoring drives, as seen in the highlights below, were a blocked field goal and an interception.

Three points in either drive would have meant the difference in the 20-17 loss. "We go down there twice and get the field goal blocked and throw an interception," David Shaw said, via Andy Drukarev of Rivals.com.

"That's not going to win on the road in this conference."

And barring more help from the Arizona Wildcats this week, the Cardinal will be playing the Pac-12 Championship on the road, according to Tom FitzGerald of the San Francisco Chronicle. To beat ASU, Stanford may need more than three points on red-zone trips.

Currently, Stanford ranks 86th in red-zone touchdown percentage. As David Lombardi pointed out before the Cal game, Stanford had its worst red-zone TD percentage since 2007:

The Cardinal went 4-8 that year.

Generally, with a shorter field, defenses are able to stack the box against the run and leave defensive backs on an island against receivers. Stanford will need to find some more creative plays to convert red-zone possessions into touchdowns against the Sun Devils.

The final area of focus for Stanford should be the two-minute drill. Stanford usually controls tempo with Tyler Gaffney and its running game. That obviously milks the clock and is ineffective in hurry-up situations.

It would be a huge asset if Stanford got the opportunity to practice a two-minute drill situation against Notre Dame's defense.

Having a successful two-minute offense would give Stanford some confidence in its ability to score quickly if it happens to need it.

Stanford is usually able to dictate tempo with its running game and at least keep the game close. It has yet to face a deficit over 14 points at any point this season.

Having a two-minute or hurry-up offense would be nice to have up Shaw's sleeve, in case Stanford finds itself trailing by three scores at some point.

If the Cardinal can play Stanford football, then they'll beat Notre Dame. A victory over a ranked rival is certain to get Stanford rolling into the Pac-12 title game on an emotional high. If the Cardinal have the opportunity to develop a second receiver, score in the red zone and run a hurry-up offense against Notre Dame, they'll be in prime position to take on Arizona State.

At the very least, it would be nice for David Shaw to see what he has in these areas before the Pac-12 title game. Clearly, Stanford has a great ground game, fantastic pass-rush and one stud receiver.

That might be enough.

With its 63-13 rout of rival Cal and Oregon's loss at Arizona, No. 9 Stanford is back in the Pac-12 Championship game for a second consecutive season. And, just like last season, the Cardinal can spend the offseason ruing that the College Football Playoff doesn't begin until 2014. 

If only the Cardinal could spread one of the nine touchdowns it scored against the Golden Bears Saturday to cover the six-point total margin of defeat against Utah and USC, they would be in position to play for the BCS Championship. That's Stanford's only road to the national title in the current system, but under the forthcoming playoff, it could play its way into one of four tournament berths. 

Stanford's met certain criteria likely expected of a College Football Playoff participant. Its strength of schedule is second in the nation, according to Sagarin ratings, and the Cardinal boast high-profile wins over ranked opponents Arizona State, Oregon and UCLA. 

It's also on course to win one of the Group of Five conference championships. Head coach David Shaw said in his postgame press conference that he learned of Oregon's loss from former Cardinal standout and current Seattle Seahawks star defensive back Richard Sherman, via GoStanford.com. 

"He was on the sidelines, passed by me. Our game was in hand, that game was in hand," Shaw said. "Thought it was okay for him to share it with me." 

There's something poetic in Shaw learning of his repeat divisional championship from one of the players responsible for helping Stanford's transition into a top-tier program. Rose Bowls were not goals past Cardinal teams realistically pursued. 

Now, Stanford does so annually. The next logical step is the national championship, and the process of building to that is already started. 

Shaw's faced with replacing a number of stars responsible for the two Pac-12 North championships, including linebacker Shayne Skov, who was everywhere on defense Saturday. But, Stanford also reloads in the first year of the College Football Playoff with such returners as wide receiver Ty Montgomery.

Montgomery, a junior, had a career day, catching five passes for 160 yards. Four went for touchdowns, and Montgomery rushed for a fifth score. 

"We see this with Ty every game," Shaw said in his postgame press conference. "We're not the type of offense typically that's going to take a whole bunch of shots down the field, but we're going to take our measured and calculated shots." 

"Calculated" encapsulates Stanford's style. It hasn't always paid dividends—Utah and USC are the two notable examples—and the BCS system renders a team's margin for error to almost nil. 

While Stanford needs teams ranked ahead of it to lose to climb in the rankings, last year proved it can be done. The Cardinal were the fourth-highest ranked conference champion in the final BCS rankings, despite two losses.  

 Not that hypothetically making the Playoff before it exists is much of a consolation. Those two blemishes—like this year's, on the road and decided by single digits—left Stanford with an offseason of wondering "what if?"

Next year, the Cardinal won't have to wonder what a College Football Playoff would have meant to their season. 

A second road Pac-12 loss derailed Stanford's bid for a national championship for 2013, and perhaps longer. 

With veteran upperclassmen up and down the roster and a preseason Top 5 national ranking, this version of Stanford football looked like the program's best hope for winning a BCS championship. Sure, the Andrew Luck-led 2010 and 2011 Cardinal were outstanding in their own right. But those teams lacked the top-to-bottom balance on both sides of the ball that this year's edition had on paper. 

Of course, games aren't played on paper—they're played in stadiums filled with raucous fans, like those who cheered on Utah and USC to wins over the Cardinal in Rice-Eccles Stadium and the Los Angeles Coliseum. 

Its losses in those two venues removed all hope of Stanford playing for the national championship and likely ended its defense of the Pac-12 championship. The six combined points by which the Cardinal lost to the Utes and Trojans are reminiscent of a season ago, when they dropped road decisions to Washington and Notre Dame by four and seven points, respectively.

The difference for Stanford as this year winds down compared to last is just how much player personnel head coach David Shaw must replace in the upcoming offseason. 

Sure, running back Stepfan Taylor, tight ends Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo and linebacker Chase Thomas left some pretty big shoes for Shaw to fill. But defensive stars Trent Murphy, Shayne Skov and Ben Gardner made for a very solid returning foundation. 

Preseason projections also suggested a more effective offense with quarterback Kevin Hogan returning, a year older and with an offseason as the unfettered No. 1. But projections can't account for unexpected player struggles, like the sudden regression plaguing Hogan. Fourth-quarter misfires from the sophomore punctuated each of Stanford’s losses.  

Hogan is still only in his second year in the program, with plenty of time for development. But he also might not have a team as deep around him in the future as he has currently.   

Depth is one of the defining qualities of this Stanford team. Projections also cannot foresee injury, and to that end, Stanford’s defensive line has never been at full strength, with Henry Anderson missing the season’s first half and Gardner gone for the second.

Injuries are an inevitability of football, and Stanford’s defense was no worse for the wear losing Anderson and Gardner. But it’s rare for any team to boast the kind of depth Stanford has this season and is tasked with replacing for 2014.

And the possibility of Stanford replacing leaders like Skov, Gardner and Murphy without coordinator Derek Mason overseeing the action is a real one. Mason’s proven ability to contain even the most explosive spread offenses should make him a hot commodity on the coaching carousel. 

Now, the narrative changes quite a bit with Mason back in the fold and if a few redshirt juniors forgo the NFL draft for one more season. Safety Ed Reynolds, linebacker A.J. Tarpley and offensive guard David Yankey all have professional futures ahead of them, but waiting another year to pursue that path gives next year’s Cardinal lineup a similar makeup to this year’s version.

However, the schedule next season is not as conducive to a championship as Stanford's 2013 slate. Because of divisional splits, the Cardinal are not guaranteed the same kind of BCS-bolstering docket that features each of the South's top three teams, as they played this year.

It's even more rare to draw the conference's other three top teams—Arizona State, Oregon and UCLA—all at home.   

There's certainly no shame in boasting the No. 9 ranking in the BCS and playing for a fourth consecutive season of 10-plus wins. Still, the 2013 season feels like a missed opportunity for Stanford’s national championship pursuit.

A Stanford program celebrated for its cerebral style fell victim to overthinking its approach in Saturday's 20-17 loss at USC. 

Despite averaging six yards per carry employing the run game that helped ground Oregon's explosive offense a week ago, the ball was put in quarterback Kevin Hogan's hands in critical spots late. That proved damning for Stanford's BCS National Championship aspirations—the loss effectively eliminates the Cardinal from the discussion—and brings negative attention on head coach David Shaw. 

Indeed, the Cardinal struggled through a bad case of offensive deja vu reminiscent of another head-scratching loss in Pac-12 play earlier this season. On Oct. 12 at Utah, Hogan passed twice on Stanford's final two plays, needing just two yards with the Utes' goal line in reach. 

Likewise, against USC, Stanford moved into Trojans territory in the fourth quarter. Two consecutive pass plays proved costly, as the second was misread and intercepted by Dion Bailey. 

A key difference between Stanford's loss at Utah and the game against USC that makes the second-half play-calling all the more confounding: Utah's offense came out hot against Stanford, scoring 21 points in the first half.

Saturday, the Cardinal held the Trojans below 20 until the game's waning moments. Stanford played an outstanding defensive game, particularly after battling back from a 17-7 deficit in the first half. The ground-and-pound style that was so crucial to Stanford's upset of Oregon seemed tailored to the game's flow in the second half. 

USC's starting front seven is stout. However, the operative word there is starting, due to the injuries and NCAA sanctions that slashed the Trojans roster below the numbers of even a Football Championship Subdivision program.  

Such an opponent seems ripe for the Hulk formation to force a war of attrition. And as good as USC defenders like Devon Kennard, Leonard Williams and Hayes Pullard have been all season, running back Tyler Gaffney still broke off an average of 6.6 yards on his 24 carries.

Those 24 carries are 21 fewer than Gaffney had against Oregon and 12 less than in the Cardinal's Oct. 19 defeat of UCLA. Conversely, Hogan threw almost twice as many passes against USC as he did against Oregon. 

Less Gaffney and more Hogan is not an ideal recipe for the Stanford offense. The Cardinal have been at their best when both phases are firing, obviously. Hogan threw as many passes against UCLA as he did at USC. However, he was more effective exploiting the openings the Bruins gave him.

In particular, Hogan connected with receivers on sideline routes against UCLA that his receivers made available against the USC secondary, but Hogan missed on overthrows. 

Gaffney wasn't perfect either. Before the critical red-zone interception, Gaffney was dragged down in the backfield to turn a six-yard goal-to-go possession into 10 yards. 

Still, Stanford deviated from the game plan that brought it to the dance. As a result, Oregon's cut in on the Cardinal's place in the Pac-12 Championship line. 

Where in the world do we go from here?

Just when it appeared everything was taking its final form in the BCS rankings, the No. 4 Stanford Cardinal had to mess around and lose to the unranked USC Trojans on Saturday.

Now let's attempt to piece together the aftermath:

First things first—was the Cardinal loss truly all that surprising? Probably not. Stanford was just one week removed from an emotional upset over the (then) No. 3-ranked Oregon and had to hit the road to take on the Trojans.

Maybe it is a shocker. ESPN makes a good case:

But remember this is the same team that lost to unranked Utah out of the blue in mid-October. Yes, the 4-6 Utah Utes.

Oh, and that's the reason the Cardinal will take a hefty nosedive in the ranks. That's two losses to unranked teams. It's not like Oregon last week—the Ducks lost to the then-No. 5 Cardinal and dropped to No. 6.

That's a credible loss. Oregon also didn't have a blemish on its record when the loss occurred. Using that as a barometer, the Cardinal are out of the picture.

But we digress. Don't expect any shockers in the Top Five. All of the major players took care of business in one way or another the same weekend Stanford elected to lay an egg:

So yes, we're still on track with Alabama and Florida State at the top.

Ohio State still sits right behind with Baylor finally (and long overdue) taking over the No. 4 slot. Lucky one-loss Oregon gets to sneak back into the picture and faces no threat of being jumped by one-loss Auburn after a narrow victory for the Tigers.

Baylor may have enough juice in the tank to jump Ohio State by season's end. The Buckeyes have won 22 straight, but if Baylor can beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns in the coming weeks, the two could flip.

Alas, the Crimson Tide or Seminoles have to lose for it to matter in the BCS National Championship Game picture. Florida State has an elite quarterback in Jameis Winston, an impressive body of work, and Alabama is the two-time defending champ.

Stanford moves out of the picture completely, but nothing else really changes. The good teams did what they were supposed to do—take care of business and keep title hopes alive. Stanford did not.

If there's one thing the Stanford loss does tell us about the rankings, it's that undefeated teams must be taken seriously. It's no joke to be without a loss at this point in the season—a win each week regardless of the competition is a difficult thing to do.

Stanford could not do it, but the remaining top four have. If they continue to do so, the NCAA and its fans are going to wish the playoff had arrived a year earlier.

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The No. 5 Stanford Cardinal are on a roll when the team hits the road to take on the USC Trojans in Pac-12 play Saturday.

David Shaw's team is one week removed from an epic victory over then-ranked No. 3 Oregon and remains in the driver's seat to play host to the Pac-12 title game for the second straight year.

But the Trojans are not the surefire victory many would have thought earlier in the season with Lane Kiffin as coach. Kiffin has since been replaced by Ed Orgeron and USC has won four of five as a result.

The last time the Trojans were able to defeat a ranked opponent was in November of 2011. That can change in a hurry if the Cardinal do not tread lightly—especially after an emotional win.

Force Cody Kessler to the Air

USC has a very effective combo at running back in Tre Madden and Javorius Allen:

While the former has dealt with injuries in recent weeks, Allen has been especially important in helping quarterback Cody Kessler.

Kessler has had big games in recent weeks since Kiffin's departure. Much of the credit goes to a commitment to the run game. When Kessler is on it's because his life is made easier via his backs.

For example, when USC lost to Notre Dame earlier in the year, Madden missed the game and Allen gained 20 yards on seven carries. USC as a whole only mustered 129 yards on the ground (Silas Redd gained more than 100 yards but will miss this game against Stanford). Kessler wound up with a miserable line—20-of-34 for 201 yards and an interception.

Stanford has an outstanding defense that allows fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. If the Cardinal can keep that trend alive, Kessler will have a hard time winning the game on his own.

Ride Tyler Gaffney Once More

Stanford has quite the running attack as well.

The credit goes to a single name here—senior back Tyler Gaffney.

As ESPN points out, Gaffney was instrumental in last week's big win over Oregon:

Gaffney broke the school's record for carries in that game and now has 1,043 yards and 13 touchdowns on a 4.9 average. USC must understand that the Cardinal are similar to their offense in that Gaffney makes things significantly easier for quarterback Kevin Hogan.

The Cardinal need one more Gaffney-heavy game before he can relax in the team's next game against lowly California (1-9). His production on the ground will go a long way in deciding the outcome.

Continue What Works

It sounds so simple. Stanford has cruised to a victory in this matchup four straight times and five of the last six.

Yet it cannot go understated how important Stanford's emotional win over the Ducks last week is here. We've all heard of a let-down performance and things of that nature.

Per ESPN, the last time (2011) USC beat a ranked opponent, said opponent was coming off a major victory over a Top-10 team (No. 6 Oregon beat No. 3 Stanford before losing to USC the next week).

History lesson aside, the Cardinal can avoid the same fate by doing what works. Stanford has more talent on both sides of the football. Run Gaffney down the Trojans' throats. Use a run defense that limited the explosive Oregon offense to 62 rushing yards. Hit Kessler early and often.

Steady is the course for Stanford in a hostile environment.

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