Iowa Hawkeyes Football

Three people were arrested early Saturday morning in Connecticut, according to Pat Harty of Hawk Central (h/t College Football Talk), after a fight broke out when three customers at a diner mistook Iowa assistant coach D.J. Hernandez for his brother Aaron, who was arrested and charged with murder last week. 

The Iowa coach was not one of the three people arrested. As Hawk Central reported, Norine Derocco, a manager at the diner, claimed that D.J. Hernandez was not involved in the altercation.

“It was just customers who thought it was Aaron Hernandez. That’s how the fight actually started,” Derocco said. “They thought it was Aaron Hernandez himself. And then someone said, ‘No it’s his brother,’ and then a fight broke out. But whoever the person was, if it was D.J. Hernandez … (he was) not involved in the actual fight.”

The three people that were arrested and subsequently charged with third-degree assault, breach of peace and third-degree criminal mischief on Saturday night were Alberto Lopez, 30, of Bristol, Conn., Jesus Agosto, 36 of New Britain, Conn. and Thomas Miller, 30 of Torrington, Conn. How the fight was instigated is still unclear. 

Last week, according to Harty's report, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz was asked about the status of his tight ends coach, who just joined the staff in January. 

"He's fine," Ferentz said. 

D.J. Hernandez played football at Connecticut and his family is from there, which is why he was in the area. As a member of the Huskies, D.J. Hernandez was a two-year captain at wide receiver after switching from the quarterback position. 

According to John Taylor of College Football Talk, the Iowa athletic department will not comment on the incident since the coach was neither arrested nor charged. 

As for D.J. Hernandez's brother, Aaron, he is being held without bail after being charged with the murder of Odin Lloyd. According to Rana L. Cash of Sporting News, a tentative court date is set for July 24. 

The bar for the 2013 Iowa Hawkeyes and their head coach Kirk Ferentz has to be considered low following their disastrous 4-8 record last season.

It would be surprising if anybody picked Iowa to win more than six games this season.

It is worth considering, however, what the over/under is on Iowa's win total based on the preseason previews which have begun rolling in.

Firstly, not all of the previews used indicated how they thought the Hawkeyes would finish record-wise.

In fact, one of them only predicted what the bowl lineup would look like—hint, Iowa wasn't picked to make a bowl. So there is some conjecture about where Iowa would finish record-wise in the preview.

Specifically, the Hawkeyes were considered a four-win team if they were in 11th or 12th place in the Big Ten. They were a five-win team if put in 10th place, and a six-win team if in eighth or ninth place.

No other preview that I could find had them any higher than eighth.

Secondly, different previews used different criteria for their predictions. Two used a formula, one used a computer and the rest used a holistic approach.

Lastly, most previews in general tend to be short sighted. They are often just a recycling of how the teams finished the previous season, teamed with a minor adjustment based on the strength or weakness of their returning starters and recruiting class.

After all, who predicted Iowa's collapse last year? Who predicted Michigan State would go 6-6? Northwestern 10-2? Wisconsin 7-5?

None of the "experts" even came close.

With that said, the following previews were used: Collegefootballnews.com, athlonsports.com, ESPN, Jerry Palm via CBSSports.com, Ohio State blog elevenwarriors.com, footballstudyhall.com, the Detroit Free Press, Andrew Logue of Hawkcentral.com, NewsnetNebraska and Tom Dienhart of BTN.com.

The two most generous previews—NewnetNebraska and Dienhart—have Iowa sitting at eighth place in the conference.

The least generous—elevenwarriors.com and footballstudyhall.com—have the Hawkeyes dead last.

The mean win total for all of the previews was 4.7. As betting firms use either whole or half numbers for their over/under tallies, I think it's fair to round down.

4.5 wins should be Iowa's over/under for the 2013 season.

On the bright side, last year's Athlonsports.com and BTN.com Big Ten predictions show that the experts are generally as clueless as the next person.

Moreover, if I were a betting man, I'd take the over on the Hawkeyes.

This is not to say they will pull off seven-or-more wins, but, for whatever my opinion is worth, I am more comfortable saying they'll win five or more games than saying they'll win four or fewer.

Regardless, 4.5 wins is not where the Iowa over/under should be in the 15th year of Kirk Ferentz's tenure.

One would think the legacy of the second-winningest coach in Iowa Hawkeyes football history would be secure, but the train ride that has been the Kirk Ferentz era will not make such guarantees.

Following a disastrous 2012 campaign that saw Iowa football sink to a 4-8 record, Ferentz and his program find themselves on genuinely thin ice for the first time since the beginning of his tenure.

The 4-8 season follows two previous disappointing campaigns. Perhaps even more disappointing than 2012 was 2010, in which arguably the most talented squad of the Ferentz era—the juniors and seniors on that squad accounted for 12 draft picks between 2011 and 2012—slumped to a 7-5 finish.

In most cases, this would be grounds for a firing, especially when the coach in question is making almost four million dollars per season. However, it is that paycheck that goes through 2020 and includes an astronomical buyout that keeps him safe in Iowa City.

With Ferentz's long-term future guaranteed as long as attendance remains steady, some have questioned if Ferentz has become complacent.

Perhaps he has, but it is unlikely when one considers that the next few seasons—unquestionably his last before he retires—will determine his legacy.

This was a legacy that wasn't in question at the end of 2004.

After a rough start to his tenure, Iowa went 31-7 between 2002-2004, which was eighth best in the country over the stretch.

The Ferentz-to-the-NFL rumors ran rampant, and Ferentz looked like he would cement his name in the Hawkeyes pantheon next to College-Football-Hall-of-Famers Hayden Fry and Forest Evashevski.

Then 2005-2007 happened. Iowa went a combined 19-19, tied for 58th in the country.

However, it was the off-the-field issues that stirred up the fans.

It began with the 2006 "fat cats" season, detailed by Andy Hamilton of Hawkcentral.com.

Then came City Boyz Inc., which Iowa blog Blackheartgoldpants.com recounts. The long and short of the story is that preceding the 2007 season, four Iowa wide receivers engaged in a substantial amount of petty thievery, as well as some drug usage. By the beginning of the 2008 season, all four of them were dismissed or left the team.

2007 ended with a home loss to 4-7 should-have-been MAC-rifice Western Michigan, as well as two players arrested on sexual abuse charges. That home loss led to 6-6 Iowa missing a bowl for the first time since 2000.

At that time, Ferentz had a substantial contract—just over $3 million according to coacheshotseat.com—but the buyout was nowhere near the current astronomical figure. Consequently, Ferentz was decidedly "on the hot seat."

He followed this up with a resurgent 9-4 2008 followed by the 10-2 magic carpet ride of 2009 that ended with a decisive Orange Bowl victory over Georgia Tech.

He was rewarded with the contract he has today, which all but guarantees Iowa cannot fire him unless the university begins losing money on the football team.

According to the aforementioned coacheshotseat.com, Ferentz is on the fourth hottest seat in the country, and one won't have to spend much time searching to find a good deal of fanbase vitriol directed at the head coach.

Therefore, despite the successes he has brought to Iowa City, Ferentz could leave his position as a distinctly unpopular man.

This is where Ferentz's current situation comes into play.

Despite the contract, despite the downturns and inexplicable in-game decisions, despite the disdain with which he often treats the press (and by extension, the fans), Ferentz can end his career next to Fry and Evashevski.

It all depends upon what happens during these next few years.

The good news is Ferentz has made—some might say has been forced to make—a slew of changes. Most notably, after 12 years of almost unheard of coaching staff stability, as Mike Hlas of the Cedar Rapids Gazette noted, Iowa has undergone an "extreme makeover."

It remains to be seen whether that makeover will result in wins or even an exciting football product—something that was lacking last year—but it does indicate that Ferentz is aware of how much is at stake.

He is not happily collecting his paychecks until he rides off into the sunset.

Legacy is an important word when one reaches the level Kirk Ferentz has reached. He is aware of that.

Forget the 2002-2004 run. Forget tearing down the Minnesota goalposts in 2002. Forget the 2005 Cap One Bowl. Forget beating No. 1 Penn State in 2008. Forget winning the 2010 Orange Bowl.

Also forget City Boyz Inc., the fat cats, the 2010 Minnesota loss and the 2012 Central Michigan onside kick fiasco.

Kirk Ferentz's career and legacy in Iowa City will be defined by what he does over the next few years, and that starts with 2013.

All of the way-too-early previews of the Big Ten have Kirk Ferentz and his Iowa Hawkeyes at or near the bottom of the conference.

Collegefootballnews.com has the Hawks at 4-8 with a winless Big Ten season. Athlonsports.com has Iowa sixth in their division. ESPN has the Hawkeyes 11th in the conference.

The vast majority put Iowa in the bottom three, along with Purdue and Illinois.

There are no previews that have Iowa outside of the bottom five, which includes Purdue and Illinois, along with resurgent Indiana and Minnesota.

Tom Dienhart of the Big Ten Network recently wrote a preview of the historically inept Indiana Hoosiers, in which he wrote, "missing a slumping Hawkeyes team that IU beat last season hurts." Yes, missing Iowa now weakens a perennial cellar-dweller's schedule.

Some argue that this year, along with last year, are transitional years, both as it concerned schemes—in 2012, the Hawkeyes broke in new coordinators on both sides of the ball—and talent.

The first contention is accurate, though the roughest part of the transition should be well behind Iowa in 2013. At the very least, Ferentz won't have any excuses if it isn't.

However, the other part of that transition—lack of talent—while true in 2012, doesn't apply to 2013.

Firstly, it's impossible to measure talent in the college ranks. 

All the recruiting stars in the world don't guarantee success at the next level. Meanwhile, success at the college level doesn't guarantee success at the professional level.

Nonetheless, Ferentz's greatest accomplishment as the Hawkeyes head coach has not been what he has done on the field, but the athletes—often lightly recruited—he has sent to the NFL. Those athletes are a direct reflection of how much talent has passed through Iowa City over the past 14 years.

According to Dienhart, between 2003-2012, Iowa had the second-most players drafted in the Big Ten. That means the NFL coveted Iowa players more than players from every program in the conference outside of Ohio State. More than Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska.

The Hawkeyes also tied for the third-most first rounders, and they developed the most offensive linemen.

The 2012 class sent only Micah Hyde into the NFL Draft, a considerable letdown from three years of six draftees each.

But the 2013 class should bounce back, which, once again, is a testament to the amount of talent in the program.

One can never assume how the seniors will perform. After all, Hawkeyes receiver Keenan Davis was a strong bet to get drafted before 2012's offensive breakdown.

Still, consider the early returns of this year's seniors and potential draftees.

CBSSports.com ranks C.J. Fiedorowicz the No. 2 tight end in the country. Walterfootball.com has him No.5 and going in the second-third round.

CBS Sports.com has linebacker Anthony Hitchens as the No. 12 outside linebacker (probably a generous ranking), while fellow linebacker James Morris is the No. 14 inside linebacker.

Walterfootball.com (which is the more accurate of the two sites) ranks Morris as the No. 8 outside linebacker—outside linebacker is his more natural position, though he played middle linebacker for the majority of his collegiate career—and has him going in the second-third round.

Neither site ranks fellow seniors Brett Van Sloten (offensive tackle) or B.J. Lowery (cornerback), but history is on both Van Sloten's and Lowery's side.

Every starting Iowa cornerback going back to 2008 has been drafted, and according to Kirk Ferentz (via Marc Morehouse of the Cedar Rapids Gazette), "the offense threw away from B.J. Lowery this spring."

As for Van Sloten, every Kirk Ferentz-coached, multi-year-starting Iowa tackle has been drafted. The one exception was Markus Zusevics, who started 2010-11, but he would likely have been drafted if not for a torn pectoral muscle suffered during the combine.

After 2013, Van Sloten will have been a two-year starter.

On top of that, junior left tackle Brandon Scherff could push himself into the draft if he has a good year.

CBSSports.com also has Tanner Miller as the No. 13 free safety, but most Iowa fans would agree that Miller will not get drafted unless he takes major steps forward this season.

That makes six Hawkeyes who will have a reasonable shot of getting chosen in the 2014 NFL Draft, with two locks to get drafted.

This is not a team that has a severe talent deficiency, especially when compared with the potential draftees in other mid-tier (i.e. not Ohio State and Michigan or arguably Nebraska and Penn State) Big Ten programs.

According to Walterfootball.com, Wisconsin has five potential draftees, while Michigan State has three. No other program has more than two.

CBSSports.com—the more liberal of the two sites—has six Badgers and four Spartans, as well as three each from Nebraska and Penn State.

Obviously, the websites could be missing prospects, as I believe they are with Van Sloten and Lowery.

However, unlike with Van Sloten and Lowery, history supports minimal-no draftees coming from the likes of Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois and Minnesota, as the second-linked Dienhart article suggests.

It also supports the probability that more or just as many Hawkeyes will go in the draft as will Spartans, Cornhuskers and Nittany Lions, though there will be definitively more Badgers drafted.

With all this in mind: Yes, football is a team sport, and six quality players do not a team make.

Nevertheless, the idea that Iowa is talent-poor at this point—at least when compared to other mid-tier or even lower-tier Big Ten programs—is inaccurate.

Most are predicting a weak year for the Hawkeyes, because a certain reality has set in after the last three disappointing seasons.

That reality is that Kirk Ferentz's reputation—of doing more with less—doesn't reflect his program. Rather, he has worked with a surplus of talent. By NFL Draft standards, he has presided over the second-most talented program in the conference between 2003-2012.

The issue is he has proven himself to be a great developer of talent, but he does not put that talent in a position to succeed when it comes time to play football.

After years of entering the year with inflated expectations—2005, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012 all serve as examples—the prognosticators have caught up with reality.

Kirk Ferentz has been a top-notch developer of talent, but has not been a great coach.

The predictions that place Iowa at the bottom of the conference reflect that.

There is enough talent in Iowa City to win football games, but nobody will give the Hawkeyes credit for that talent until Ferentz shows that he can put that talent in a position to win.