Iowa Hawkeyes Football

The way-too-early college football predictions are starting to roll in, and if the experts are correct, 2013 doesn't look rosy for Kirk Ferentz and his Iowa Hawkeyes.

Collegefootballnews.com has the Hawks at 4-8 with a winless Big Ten season. Athlonsports.com has Iowa sixth in their division. ESPN has the Hawkeyes 11th in the conference.

The most flattering preview one is likely to find is via Tom Dienhart of the Big Ten Network, who has Iowa eighth in the Big Ten.

While some Hawkeyes fans might aspire to more than simply making a bowl, making a bowl will be an uphill battle for 2013 Iowa.

With this in mind, what do the Hawkeyes and Kirk Ferentz have to do in order to get to six wins and a bid to what would have seemed a disappointing bowl only three years ago?

Sweep the Out-Of-Conference Schedule

Iowa's out of conference consists of Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Missouri State and Western Michigan.

On paper, that looks like it should be a clean sweep. After all, two MAC opponents, one FCS opponent and a Big 12 opponent that hasn't won more than seven games since 2000 shouldn't pose too much of a threat.

This is even more poignant when one considers that the FCS opponent in question is a poor FCS opponent that went 3-8 last year and hasn't had a winning season since 2009. Moreover, according to Phil Steele, two of those opponents—WMU and ISU—rank 112th and 117th in the country in terms of most returning starters.

It is true that Northern Illinois returns eight from 2012's No. 13 scoring offense, including the entire offensive line and their dynamic quarterback. However, the Huskies have only four returning defensive starters, and they will break in a new coach—their third new coach in four years.

Though all these things work in Iowa's favor, the fact remains that even though Iowa is 100-74 since 1999—Ferentz's first year—and Iowa State is 76-96 over that span—a span that includes three different head coaches—Kirk Ferentz is 6-8 against his interstate rival. He is 2-5 at Ames, the site of this year's meeting.

Basically, Iowa is as likely to lose to the Clones as win no matter what the matchup looks like on paper.

Meanwhile, Ferentz is 0-2 against MAC-powerhouse Western Michigan, and last year's Central Michigan debacle made it clear that the Hawkeyes are never safe against any opponent.

Finally, NIU is a genuine quality opponent.

In short, the first step toward getting back to a bowl will include sweeping the out of conference, but that is a task easier said than done.

Score Points

This key step includes the following subheadings: catch catchable passes, sustain drives, create plays longer than three yards, make teams pay for blitzing, score in the red zone, don't wait until the 11th game to involve the tight ends in the offense and don't take delay-of-game penalties in the hurry-up offense.

These may sound like the ramblings of Captain Obvious, especially when one considers that the 2012 Iowa offense was the 113th scoring offense in the country.

Nevertheless, Ferentz is notorious for relying on his defense to win games, but this year's defense, while improved from last year's, is a year away from reaching the elite status of past Iowa defenses.

Therefore, Ferentz will have to allow the offense to do what it is supposed to do—score points—if he hopes to get to six wins against this year's schedule, which features 10 2012 bowl teams.

Early glimpses of the offense—at the Des Moines open practice and the spring game—indicate a much improved O, but that doesn't mean Ferentz will employ it more aggressively.

Win on the Road

At this point, WMU and Missouri State are the only home games in which the Hawks will be favored.

The other home games include NIU, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan. Iowa may be able to pull off one or even two upsets out of that bunch, but it's difficult to envision three or more.

In effect, the Hawks have to win at least two of the winnable road games. Those games are at Iowa State, Minnesota and Purdue, as well as roadies against Ohio State and Nebraska, which aren't quite as "winnable."

By the way, the last time Iowa won more than two road games in a season was 2009. Before that, you have to go back to 2004. The only other time Kirk Ferentz's Hawkeyes won three or more road contests was 2002.

Pull Off At Least One Major Upset

Let's say Iowa sweeps the out-of-conference, which, by itself would include one minor upset over Northern Illinois.

It would then have to win two more games to get to bowl eligibility.

It could take the roadies at Purdue and at Minnesota—which would not be "major" upsets—but, as already inferred, Ferentz's teams are not known for their road prowess. Also, Minnesota, under third-year coach Jerry Kill looks to be on the upswing.

In effect, the Hawkeyes' bowl eligibility may come down to toppling a giant—OSU, Michigan or Nebraska—or at least a more talented foe—MSU, Northwestern or Wisconsin.

Beat Iowa State

It may seem like just one game, but much of the season hinges on that one game. This is true for both teams.

This is not only true from a rivalry standpoint—Ferentz has two ugly losses in a row to Paul Rhoads and the Cyclones—but it could mean a bowl or no bowl for either team.

According to Phil Steele, Iowa State's schedule is the 21st toughest schedule in the country (Iowa is 34th).

It is difficult to find six wins when looking at the Clones' schedule, but if there are to be six wins, a home win over the Hawkeyes looks more likely than a roadie at Kansas State, Oklahoma or West Virginia or a home win against Texas or Oklahoma State.

Iowa is in the same boat. Assuming Iowa wins the games it should win—Missouri State, Western Michigan—and the games it has a reasonable chance of winning—Minnesota, Purdue and Northern Illinois—that leaves one more win to get to bowl eligibility.

And by all measurable standards—I know, football isn't played on paper—the Hawks have a more realistic chance of beating ISU than they do of beating MSU, OSU, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan or Nebraska.

It's rare that one game means this much, but this year, the Hawkeyes have to circle Ames on their calender. Lose that, the wheels could come off the cart and a bowl will be a long shot.

In Sum

This is an odd year for Iowa.

It is the first year in a long time in which there is at least one game on the schedule that looks unwinnable (Ohio State). It is also the first year in a while in which the Hawks will probably be underdogs in over half of their games.

Despite this, Iowa can get to a bowl.

In fact, it is conceivable that the Hawks can manage eight regular season wins, though more than eight seems too unlikely to bother considering.

Therefore, in order to get to six (or seven or eight) wins, more than anything else, Kirk Ferentz has to win the winnable games, which, as Mike Hlas of the Cedar Rapids Gazette pointed out midway through the 2011 season, is something he has not always done.

The Iowa Hawkeyes suited up last weekend for their spring game, which was the last time fans will have a chance to see their Hawkeyes in action until next August.

This begs the question of what the depth chart will look like on August 31, when Iowa competes against the Northern Illinois Huskies.

The following will take a best guess at the opening day depth chart and especially what might change from the spring game depth chart (via Marc Morehouse of the Cedar Rapids Gazette).

Asterisks (*) indicate a returning starter. The players' years of availability is indicated after their names.

Offense

QB: Jake Rudock (So.)/ C.J. Beathard (R.Fr.) OR Cody Sokol (Jr.)

RB: Mark Weisman* (Jr.) OR Jordan Canzeri (So.)/ Michael Malloy (R.Fr.)

FB: Mark Weisman* (Jr.)/ Adam Cox (So.)

WR1: Kevonte Martin-Manley* (Jr.)/ Jacob Hillyer (So.)

WR2: Tevaun Smith (So.)/ Jordan Cotton (Sr.)

WR3: Damond Powell (Jr.)/ Damon Bullock (Jr.) OR Cameron Wilson (R.Fr.)

TE1: C.J. Fiedorowicz* (Sr.)/ Jake Duzey (So.)

TE2: Ray Hamilton (Jr.)/ Henry Krieger-Coble (So.)

OT: Brandon Scherff* (Jr.)/ Andrew Donnal (Jr.)

OG: Conor Boffeli (Sr.)/ Eric Simmons (So.)

C: Austin Blythe* (So.)/ Eric Simmons (So.)

OG: Jordan Walsh (So.) OR Andrew Donnal (Jr.)/ Ryan Ward (R.Fr.)

OT: Brett Van Sloten* (Sr)/ Nolan MacMillan (Sr.)

Defense

DE: Dominic Alvis* (Sr.)/ Riley McMinn (So.)

DT: Louis Trinca-Pasat* (Jr.)/ Faith Ekakitie (R.Fr.)

DT: Carl Davis (Jr.)/ Darian Cooper (So.)

DE: Drew Ott (So.)/ Mike Hardy (Jr.) OR Faith Ekakitie (R.Fr.)

WLB: Anthony Hitchens* (Sr.)/ Travis Perry (So.)

MLB: James Morris* (Sr.)/ Quinton Alston (Jr.)

OLB: Christian Kirksey* (Sr.)/ Marcus Collins (Jr.)

CB: B.J. Lowery* (Sr.)/ Maurice Fleming (R.Fr.)

SS: Nico Law* (Jr.)/ John Lowdermilk (Jr.) 

FS: Tanner Miller* (Sr.)/ Anthony Gair (R.Fr.)

CB: Jordan Lomax (So.)/ Sean Draper (So.)

Specialists

PK: Mike Meyer* (Sr.)/ Marshall Koehn (So.)

P: Connor Kornbrath* (So.)/ Jonny Mullings (Jr.)

PR: Jordan Canzeri (So.)/ Jordan Cotton (Sr.)

KR: Jordan Cotton* (Sr.)/ Jordan Canzeri (So.)

According to most—Morehouse in the above link, Iowa blog Blackheartgoldpants.com, Hawkeye game film on Hawkeyenation.com—this is now a two-man quarterback race between Rudock and Sokol.

Nonetheless, head coach Kirk Ferentz will keep the "OR" between his backups' names for sake of appearances.

That is unlikely to change when the team opens up summer camp. However, according to Ferentz via HawkeyeSports.com, "The quarterback battle will likely be made sometime in mid-August, and it won't carry over into the first game week."

Personally, I don't believe him. Rudock, who seems to be less prone to making big mistakes, will start the first game. Sokol, who seems to make bigger mistakes but is also more of a playmaker, will get some snaps.

Weisman will be on the field for the majority of offensive plays, but he will be at both tailback and fullback.

Canzeri will be at tailback whenever Weisman is at fullback, and he will also play in some one-back sets. Hopefully, the coaches find ways to get the ball into both of these players' hands.

Bullock will make the full-time move to wide receiver, but Ferentz could get creative and motion him all over the field. One can only hope.

In 2013, Iowa will go more multiple on offense than it has at any point under Ferentz. In effect, the fullback, third wide receiver and second tight end will all be starters, and there will be a lot of moving parts. Martin-Manley will line up as the X receiver. Smith will be the field stretcher at Z and JUCO transfer Damond Powell will start in the slot.

Moreover, expect a lot of receivers beyond the two-deep, including true freshmen, to see playing time this year.

At what is arguably the Hawks' deepest position, Fiedorowicz will gear up for his final season as the starting tight end. Hamilton will be No. 2. It would be great for the Hawks to use Stanford-like three-tight sets—with Duzey as the third tight end—especially around the end zone, but confidence isn't high that it will happen.

Iowa will rotate six to seven offensive linemen, as it has done for the last few years. The tackles are set in stone, Bofelli will lock down left guard and Blythe is the center. Look for Donnal, Ward and Walsh to all get snaps at right guard.

Donnal will move outside if either tackle goes down.

On defense, Davis, Trinca-Pasat, Alvis and Hardy will start, but Cooper will get as much playing time as any starter. Hardy, Ekakitie and McMinn will also see a substantial amount of playing time. Redshirt freshman Jaleel Johnson will see time in goal-line sets.

This is a big year for the linebackers. This is their legacy.

In 2012, defensive coordinator Phil Parker substituted a lot more defensive backs than Norm Parker, his predecessor. Look for that to continue.

As previously mentioned, whoever starts opposite Lowery will get picked on. Hopefully, safety play is vastly improved from last year, as that will minimize any issues the inexperienced new cornerback has. 

It's difficult to say what was going on with the punting game at the spring game. Kornbrath, last year's starter, was absent, and his absence was never addressed by Ferentz. Given that there has been no talk of the West Virginian transferring or having academic issues, one has to assume he was sick or had a minor injury.

Finally, it is exciting to think what Canzeri can do on returns.

If he does stay atop the depth chart, it will be the first time Ferentz has employed a running back as the punt returner.

It is a bit dangerous for him, as a receiver—being used to operating in a crowd—is logically more trustworthy catching the ball in traffic. Historically, a receiver has been Ferentz's pick to return punts.

It's good to see Ferentz taking a bit of a gamble, and maybe it's a sign of the notoriously conservative head coach moving away from his safety zone.

Much of the recent talk around Kinnick Stadium has concerned the Iowa Hawkeyes and their passing game. More specifically, how the receiver position group, which fell flat in 2012, is undergoing a fundamental transition, and how the success of this transition will determine Iowa's offensive success in 2013.

Nevertheless, the Hawkeyes, head coach Kirk Ferentz and offensive coordinator Greg Davis would be better off reinvesting in and rejuvenating their tight ends than building an offense around their receivers.

As for those receivers, new position coach Bobby Kennedy describes his group (per the Des Moines Register) as "probably a little embarrassed about last year."

That embarrassment was due to a failure to get off the line, get open, make hot reads, make plays and more than anything, catch passes that landed in their hands. According to Tork Mason of the Daily Iowan, Hawkeye pass catchers dropped eight against Iowa State.

It is true that the Hawks need the receivers to step up, and once they step up, to present defenses with a consistent downfield threat.

However, investing in wide receivers as the backbone of the offense moves away from the program's strengths and is the wrong direction for the Hawkeyes.

Even before Ferentz took over in 1999, Iowa didn't do a good job of bringing in receivers.

According to Jon Miller of Hawkeyenation.com, seven Iowa receivers have been drafted during Ferentz's tenure and that of his predecessor Hayden Fry. That is seven receivers in 35 of the most successful years for football in Iowa's history. Only two of those receivers—Danan Hughes and Tim Dwight—did anything in the NFL.

As Miller said, that is a "hard sell."

Compare this to the results the Hawkeyes have gotten at tight end.

According to ESPN, there are currently five Iowa tight ends in the NFL: Scott Chandler, Brandon Myers, Tony Moeaki, Allen Reisner and Brad Herman. Three of them are starters.

The only other Big Ten program that comes close to that degree of NFL presence is Wisconsin, with four tight ends in the league.

The standard bearers of the conference—Michigan and Ohio State—have a combined total of three tight ends in the pros.

Further consider all-conference tight ends (first or second team going back to 2004). The Badgers are the top dog in that category boasting seven all-Big Ten tight ends, but Iowa is second with four. Moreover, the conference award for best tight end is co-named for a Hawkeyes player: Dallas Clark.

The Hawks have had no problems recruiting highly sought after tight ends. They have received the commitment of five 4-star tight ends going back to 2005: Moeaki, along with current Hawks C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ray Hamilton, plus A.J. Edds and Christian Ballard, both of whom came to Iowa as tight ends but moved to the defense.

How many 4-star receivers has Ferentz secured commitments from? One. Keenan Davis. Even highly-recruited receivers from the state of Iowa—Adrian Arrington and Amara Darboh, both 4-star players when they came out of high school—opted to take their talents out of state.

And the Hawkeye State's top receiver in 2014—4-star Allen Lazard—will be plying his wares in Ames.

Some might argue that tight ends cannot carry a passing game, but there a number of teams, pro and college, that employ their tight ends as a primary receiving option.

The most notable is Stanford. 2012's top Cardinal pass catcher was senior tight end Zach Ertz, who more than doubled the production of Stanford's top wide receiver. The No. 3 pass catcher was also a tight end: senior Levine Toilolo.

In 2011, the Cardinal regularly used three-tight end sets, employing Ertz, Toilolo and Coby Fleener. The tight end trio totaled 86 catches for 1,346 yards and 20 touchdowns. They also paved the way for an offense that averaged over 200 yards rushing per game, something Iowa hasn't come close to since 2002.

Closer to home, Penn State's Bill O'Brien turned the 2011 No. 11 Big Ten scoring offense into No. 7. One of his key innovations was the way he used his tight ends. Three of his top five pass catchers were tight ends.

And then there is Wisconsin.

As faniq.com noted, new Badger head coach Gary Andersen, rather than trying to force the receiver-heavy looks he used at Utah State, is considering installing three-tight end spread formations.

These are all pro-set teams, and as Andersen knows, if used correctly, good tight ends present matchup problems for opposing defenses.

In fact, Sports Illustrated detailed the position (in the pros) noting, "No other position group in the NFL had a better decade than tight end," and proceeded to list the 10 who "give current defensive coordinators the biggest fits." By the way, No. 1 might look familiar to Hawkeye fans.

Footballtimes.org goes further into the potential of two- and three-tight end sets, asking, "Can you imagine defensive backs that weigh 190 pounds up against taller, 260-pound, pass-catching tight ends?" On the other hand, linebackers are typically too slow to cover athletic tight ends. This puts defensive coordinators in a constant bind.

The tight end's versatility falls perfectly in line with what KCRG.com describes as the "balanced offense" that Ferentz has always favored.

Ferentz, like most coaches, wants to keep the opposing defense off balance and create mismatches. A two-running back, two-wide receiver, one-tight end formation—historically Iowa's base offensive set—will not do that. A one-running back, one- or two-receiver set with two or three tight ends will.

Moreover, this should involve minimal transition, because the tight end position group is already arguably the Hawkeyes' deepest, most experienced and most talented position.

Fieodorowicz and Hamilton are on the roster along with talented sophomores Jake Duzey and Henry Krieger-Coble. As Ferentz has said multiple times—here is one via HawkeyeSports.com—"obviously the goal is to get your best 11 out there."

In Iowa's case, the "best 11" includes at least two if not three tight ends who are used to put the defense into disadvantageous situations.

Last year, the Hawkeyes' offense was No. 113 in the country. The passing offense (efficiency) was No. 115 and tied for No. 121 in passing touchdowns.

Top tight end Fiedorowicz had the most receptions for an Iowa tight end since Scott Chandler in 2006. However, it was too little, too late. While the receivers were floundering for the majority of the year, the tight ends were collecting dust. In fact, over 31 percent of Fiedorowicz's total receptions occurred in the final two games of the year.

Following the second-to-last game of the season (Michigan) the Cedar Rapids Gazette's Mike Hlas tweeted,

RT @tomfornelli Greg Davis just discovered CJ Fiedorowicz in practice this week.

— Mike Hlas (@Hlas) November 17, 2012

Incidentally, Iowa wide receivers caught only two passes against the Wolverines.

It is true that the receivers need to step up their play after 2012's "embarrassment," and it's also true that the receivers are and should be a significant part of the offense.

Nonetheless, the bigger issue concerns the tight end's role in the offense and whether it will take on a level of importance equal to if not more important than the receivers.

It should have been the case last year. Many of the transitional issues could have been minimized if the shorthanded receiver group had been de-emphasized and the talented tight end group had played a more prominent role.

Hopefully, in 2013 Davis is over what Ferentz called (via Hawkcentral.com) a "learning curve" and has a full grasp of how to best employ the Hawkeyes' personnel.

Iowa will never field receivers like Texas—Davis's former gig—but that doesn't mean the offense can't be successful.

The best and most proven road toward that success goes through the tight ends.