Predicting the Winners of the 2014-15 Aviva Premiership Final
Dec 28, 2014
LONDON, ENGLAND - MAY 31: Dylan Hartley (C) and his Northampton Saints team mates celebrate after winning the Aviva Premiership Final between Saracens and Northampton Saints at Twickenham Stadium on May 31, 2014 in London, England. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
At the turn of the year and the mid-point of the regular Aviva Premiership season, it is an appropriate moment to assess which teams are best placed for an assault on the title in 2015.
With the top four teams from the league playing off, current league standings and form are not of monumental importance, but they do give an indication of the state of the title contenders.
Northampton Saints, the reigning champions, are the team to back for the Aviva Premiership again this year. Saracens and Bath in particular have a lot of quality across the squad, but Northampton have key additional ingredients in greater abundance than their rivals: team spirit and mental strength.
The match last week against Leicester Tigers was evidence again of their resourcefulness. Reduced to 14 for 60 minutes and 7-0 down against their east midlands rivals, Northampton dug deep to win, as they did in last year’s Premiership semi-final against the same opposition, when they were also down to 14.
Part of this mental fortitude stems from having big names for big games. In the pack, they can rely on Courtney Lawes and Samu Manoa in particular, while George North leads the cast of powerful runners in the backs.
Indiscipline could yet be Northampton’s undoing, but they are the best at coping with it and with a full complement of players, they are the best team in England.
At this stage in the season, Bath look like Northampton’s nearest challengers and the two head up the Aviva Premiership standings going into the new year.
Bath combine a powerful scrum and maul with a back line possessing arguably the best chemistry in the league.
In the forwards, they have a particularly enviable set of front-rowers. With Rob Webber at hooker. He is joined by Wales’ Paul James and England’s best player of the past year, David Wilson. Support is provided from the bench in the form of Nick Auterac and England-capped Henry Thomas. Behind them, Dave Attwood and South African Francois Louw offer forceful carrying options.
Bath’s back division is conducted by George Ford, with Kyle Eastmond as the first violin. Their understanding with Jonathan Joseph brings an elegant range of moves to Bath’s attack. In the back three, Semesa Rokoduguni and Anthony Watson are lively runners, while Matt Banahan or Horacio Agulla provide the power.
Add in Sam Burgess, who by May will hope to have matured significantly in union, and Bath’s credentials look formidable.
However, despite playing great rugby for much of the season, in contrast to Northampton, mentally they have looked frail, particularly at critical points in Europe, where the match intensity equals Premiership semi-finals and finals. A heavy defeat in Glasgow was the result of not coming out of the blocks quick enough, while away against Montpellier they were unable to secure the crucial bonus point they looked set for at half-time.
Perhaps Sam Burgess’s most important contribution could be to instil the belief and attitude he was famous for in rugby league.
Saracens have made an unusually slow start to the season, but the club machine should kick into gear in time for April and May. In the last two years Saracens have topped the regular season but not matched it with performances in the semis and final. In order to challenge Northampton and Bath, Billy Vunipola and Owen Farrell will have to recover from their recent dips in form.
Leicester Tigers have also suffered from a slow start in the Premiership, but given their catalogue of injuries to key players, their indifferent form is more understandable. With Tom Youngs, Dan Cole and Tom Croft all back, and Manu Tuilagi on the mend, the Tigers will roar in 2015.
LEICESTER, ENGLAND - MAY 13: Marcos Ayerza, the Leicester Tigers prop, poses during the Leicester Tigers media session held at the Oadby Oval on May 13, 2014 in Leicester, England. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Featuring Youngs, Cole and Croft, not to mention the Premiership’s stellar openside flanker, Julian Salvi, Leicester have a formidable pack. As important as these names is Marcos Ayerza, the world-class Argentine loosehead prop. Leicester have the pack to win the Premiership, but do they have the backs? Manu Tuilagi aside, they can’t match Northampton or Bath in this area, which will be their undoing.
Expect Northampton and Bath to top the Premiership, win their home semi-finals, and then play out a cracker at Twickenham. Going into 2015, the smart money would be on Northampton winning the Premiership final.
