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Brentford vs. Ipswich Town: Team News, Prediction, Preview for Championship Game

Aug 7, 2015
NOTTINGHAM, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 05: Daryl Murphy of Ipswich Town celebrates scoring their first goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Nottingham Forest and Ipswich Town at City Ground on October 5, 2014 in Nottingham, England.  (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images)
NOTTINGHAM, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 05: Daryl Murphy of Ipswich Town celebrates scoring their first goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Nottingham Forest and Ipswich Town at City Ground on October 5, 2014 in Nottingham, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images)

Ipswich Town kick off their 2015/16 Championship campaign with a trip to Griffin Park on Saturday, as they take on a new-look Brentford side hoping to get off to a flyer under manager Marinus Dijkhuizen.

The Bees have been busy in the transfer market since dismissing former boss Mark Warburton and have the look of a side that could once again surge into the top six.

coach Marinus Dijkhuizen of Excelsior during the Dutch Eredivisie match between Excelsior Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar at Woudenstein stadium on May 17, 2015 in Rotterdam, The Netherlands(Photo by VI Images via Getty Images)
coach Marinus Dijkhuizen of Excelsior during the Dutch Eredivisie match between Excelsior Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar at Woudenstein stadium on May 17, 2015 in Rotterdam, The Netherlands(Photo by VI Images via Getty Images)

Mick McCarthy’s Ipswich will have something to say about that, though, with the club’s usual dose of pre-season expectation looking very much like becoming reality this time around.

Read on for team news, statistics and more as we look ahead to Saturday’s clash.

 

Team News

LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 14:  Daryl Murphy of Ipswich Town (C) celebrates with teammates Freddie Sears (L) and Christophe Berra (R) after scoring his second goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Fulham and Ipswich Town at Craven Cottage on
LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 14: Daryl Murphy of Ipswich Town (C) celebrates with teammates Freddie Sears (L) and Christophe Berra (R) after scoring his second goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Fulham and Ipswich Town at Craven Cottage on

Brentford will have a few high-profile absentees for Ipswich's visit, with several players consigned to the treatment table.

New signing Josh McEachran will sit out with a foot injury, while the game will also come too soon for Sam Saunders, Lewis Macleod and Marcos Tebar.

However, the Bees will be boosted by the inclusion of defender Andreas Bjelland, who had previously been nursing a knock.

BRENTFORD, ENGLAND - JULY 25:  Andreas Bjelland of Brentford in action during the Pre Season Friendly match between Brentford and Stoke City at Griffin Park on July 25, 2015 in Brentford, England.  (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
BRENTFORD, ENGLAND - JULY 25: Andreas Bjelland of Brentford in action during the Pre Season Friendly match between Brentford and Stoke City at Griffin Park on July 25, 2015 in Brentford, England. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

Manager Dijkhuizen confirmed that the 27-year-old, who touched down in west London for a club-record fee of £2.1 million in July, will be in action against Ipswich—via Tom Moore of Get West London:

“He's trained this week with the group. If he suffers no reaction then he will be in the 18.”

Bjelland will likely line up in the heart of a 4-2-3-1 formation for Brentford, with striker Andre Gray leading the line.

BRENTFORD, ENGLAND - MAY 02:  Andre Gray of Brentford scores his team's third goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Brentford and Wigan Athletic at Griffin Park on May 2, 2015 in Brentford, England.  (Photo by Tom Dulat/Getty Images)
BRENTFORD, ENGLAND - MAY 02: Andre Gray of Brentford scores his team's third goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Brentford and Wigan Athletic at Griffin Park on May 2, 2015 in Brentford, England. (Photo by Tom Dulat/Getty Images)

Gray has drawn two bids from Hull City after an impressive 17-goal campaign last season, but he will remain in black and red stripes for the matchup with Ipswich.

One man who Hull have managed to get their hands on from Griffin Park, however, is Moses Odubajo, who made the switch to the KC on Friday—as Philip Buckingham of the Hull Daily Mail revealed:

Ipswich Town have a few players out for their Championship curtain-raiser, too, with defender Christophe Berra suspended after being sent off in the team’s play-off second-leg defeat to Norwich City.

Jonathan Parr was expected to step in at right-back and shift skipper Luke Chambers inside with Tommy Smith, but the Norwegian will be watching from the sidelines after picking up a thigh injury.

Instead, teenager Josh Emmanuel is expected to get the nod on the right side of the defence, as Stuart Watson of the East Anglian Daily Times revealed:

Left-back Jonas Knudsen will make his debut at the other end of the back four, while Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Ryan Fraser could also make their league bows from the start.

Figuring out who to play up front will be McCarthy's biggest problemalbeit a welcome one.

David McGoldrick is back to full fitness, while Freddie Sears and Daryl Murphy showed just how lethal a pairing they could be in the latter stages of 2014/15.

IPSWICH, ENGLAND - JANUARY 14:  David McGoldrick of Ipswich Town in action during the FA Cup Third Round Replay match between Ipswich and Southampton at Portman Road on January 14, 2015 in Ipswich, England.  (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
IPSWICH, ENGLAND - JANUARY 14: David McGoldrick of Ipswich Town in action during the FA Cup Third Round Replay match between Ipswich and Southampton at Portman Road on January 14, 2015 in Ipswich, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

The Ipswich boss could opt to play all three in a 4-3-3 formation, with Kevin Bru, Giles Coke and Cole Skuse tucked in behind.

Twenty-seven-goal striker Murphy will be the first name on the teamsheet, though, and he'll be looking to emulate a remarkable performance at Griffin Park from Boxing Day last year.

 

Last Time Around

IPSWICH, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 24:  Kevin Bru of Ipswich Town (C) celebrates with Daryl Murphy (9) and Jay Tabb (R) as he scores their fourth goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Ipswich Town and Birmingham City at Portman Road on February 24,
IPSWICH, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 24: Kevin Bru of Ipswich Town (C) celebrates with Daryl Murphy (9) and Jay Tabb (R) as he scores their fourth goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Ipswich Town and Birmingham City at Portman Road on February 24,

Ipswich ran out comfortable 4-2 winners after an explosive start against the Bees last term, with Murphy, Paul Anderson and Smith finding the net:

Statistics (via 11v11)

BRENTFORD, ENGLAND - MAY 02: Jota (R) of Brentford celebrates scoring his goal with Andre Gray (L) during the Sky Bet Championship match between Brentford and Wigan Athletic at Griffin Park on May 2, 2015 in Brentford, England.  (Photo by Tom Dulat/Getty
BRENTFORD, ENGLAND - MAY 02: Jota (R) of Brentford celebrates scoring his goal with Andre Gray (L) during the Sky Bet Championship match between Brentford and Wigan Athletic at Griffin Park on May 2, 2015 in Brentford, England. (Photo by Tom Dulat/Getty

Brentford have only beaten Ipswich Town once in the history of this matchup—a 3-2 victory back in their first meeting in 1955.

Murphy scored three goals against Brentford last season—two of which came from inside the six-yard box.

Brentford have won just one of their last six Championship games at home, drawing three and losing two.

BRENTFORD, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 21: Jota of Brentford celebrates with team mates and fans after scoring winning goal late on during the Sky Bet Championship match between Brentford and Fulham at Griffin Park on November 21, 2014 in Brentford, England, (Phot
BRENTFORD, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 21: Jota of Brentford celebrates with team mates and fans after scoring winning goal late on during the Sky Bet Championship match between Brentford and Fulham at Griffin Park on November 21, 2014 in Brentford, England, (Phot

Ipswich, meanwhile, have won just one of their last eight away games in the league—a dramatic 1-0 victory over Watford in March.

The Tractor Boys have lost one of their last five opening-day matches and started the 2014/15 season with a win over Brentford’s neighbours Fulham at Portman Road.

Brentford are unbeaten in their last four campaign openers.

 

Prediction

IPSWICH, ENGLAND - MARCH 17:  Jay Tabb of Ipswich Town celebrates his goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Ipswich Town and Bolton Wanderers at Portman Road on March 17, 2015 in Ipswich, England.  (Photo by Jamie McDonald/Getty Images)
IPSWICH, ENGLAND - MARCH 17: Jay Tabb of Ipswich Town celebrates his goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Ipswich Town and Bolton Wanderers at Portman Road on March 17, 2015 in Ipswich, England. (Photo by Jamie McDonald/Getty Images)

Ipswich will come into Saturday’s match full of confidence, but unless their back line is solid, they could be going home empty-handed.

Brentford will look to exploit new faces Knudsen and Emmanuel, with Gray undoubtedly up for giving them the runaround.

Still, at the other end of the pitch, Ipswich have more than enough in their armoury to do some damage, and if Murphy, McGoldrick and Sears are firing, it could well be the perfect start for McCarthy’s men.

Prediction: Brentford 1-2 Ipswich Town

Ipswich Town Line-Up: Who Will Start in Defence for Mick McCarthy in 2015/16?

Aug 6, 2015
SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 04:  Luke Chambers of Ipswich Town challenges Graziano Pelle of Southampton during the FA Cup Third Round match between Southampton and Ipswich Town at St Mary's Stadium on January 4, 2015 in Southampton, England.  (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)
SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 04: Luke Chambers of Ipswich Town challenges Graziano Pelle of Southampton during the FA Cup Third Round match between Southampton and Ipswich Town at St Mary's Stadium on January 4, 2015 in Southampton, England. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

The air around Portman Road ahead of the 2015/16 campaign is one that fans have scarcely seen before. Not only is the pre-season optimism off the charts, but for the first time in many a season, it’s more than justifiable.

Manager Mick McCarthy has transformed Ipswich Town into a team to be feared in the fiercely competitive and unpredictable Championship, and his summer recruits have only bolstered his armoury.

However, while the likes of Brett Pitman, Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Ryan Fraser have provided ample reasons for supporters to rest on the club’s attacking laurels, the back line could well need tweaking.

Ipswich Hunting Defensive Perfection

IPSWICH, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 24:  Tyrone Mings of Ipswich Town (3) celebrates with Tommy Smith (5) as he scores their first goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Ipswich Town and Birmingham City at Portman Road on February 24, 2015 in Ipswich,
IPSWICH, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 24: Tyrone Mings of Ipswich Town (3) celebrates with Tommy Smith (5) as he scores their first goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Ipswich Town and Birmingham City at Portman Road on February 24, 2015 in Ipswich,

You don’t need to be a genius to work this one out: Ipswich Town’s defensive performances last term were excellent—and the figures are there to back that up.

The line of Tyrone Mings, Tommy Smith, Christophe Berra and skipper Luke Chambers was breached just 54 times in the 2014/15 season—the fifth-best record in the division.

So, why all the doom and gloom? Well, it appears that, all of a sudden, the defence is Town’s Achilles heel.

CARDIFF, WALES - OCTOBER 21:  Cardiff player Federico Macheda (r) challenges Luke Chambers during the Sky Bet Championship match between Cardiff City and Ipswich Town at Cardiff City Stadium on October 21, 2014 in Cardiff, Wales.  (Photo by Stu Forster/Ge
CARDIFF, WALES - OCTOBER 21: Cardiff player Federico Macheda (r) challenges Luke Chambers during the Sky Bet Championship match between Cardiff City and Ipswich Town at Cardiff City Stadium on October 21, 2014 in Cardiff, Wales. (Photo by Stu Forster/Ge

Mings has been shipped off to Bournemouth, Chambers isn’t getting any closer to becoming a natural right-back and Smith looks more shaky by the game.

The answer appears a logical one, then: bring the captain into the heart of defence and drop the inconsistent Smith. Fan John Collis was one of many criticising the New Zealand international on Twitter:

It all adds up to the fact that Town need a full-back who can keep up with pacy wingers—just ask new signing Fraser about that one.

On both occasions when the Tractor Boys entertained Bournemouth last season, the Scot was seemingly told to get at Chambers and run him around… and it worked.

So, is the answer to give Jonny Parr a chance on the right side of defence?

SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 04:  Luke Chambers of Ipswich applauds the travelling fans following their team's 1-1 draw during the FA Cup Third Round match between Southampton and Ipswich Town at St Mary's Stadium on January 4, 2015 in Southampton, Engl
SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 04: Luke Chambers of Ipswich applauds the travelling fans following their team's 1-1 draw during the FA Cup Third Round match between Southampton and Ipswich Town at St Mary's Stadium on January 4, 2015 in Southampton, Engl

The Norwegian certainly has the pace and game-reading ability to stay tight to any player that the Championship can throw at him, as he proved whenever given the chance in 2014/15.

Plus, his eye for getting forward is far more tuned in than that of Chambers, while his delivery and ability to cut inside will be a serious threat.

Still, fans aren’t convinced by Parr’s dynamic ability, including Joe Fairs:

That could well be why McCarthy has deployed the 26-year-old primarily in midfield, but there’s another reason why he may not get the nod at right-back in 2015/16—the presence of new star Jonas Knudsen on the opposite flank.

Knudsen arrived at Portman Road from Esbjerg for a reported £250,000, and he has one very handy attribute at his disposal: an incredibly long throw-in.

Speaking with BBC Sport, the Denmark international revealed why he’s been branded the “new Rory Delap”:

"My dad also did it [long throw ins] when he played. When you're a kid you look up to your dad. I see him make the throw ins, and as a little kid I did it and now it's one of my good things."

PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC - JUNE 17:  Jonas Knudsen of Denmark in action during UEFA U21 European Championship Group A match between Czech Republic and Denmark at Eden Stadium on June 17, 2015 in Prague, Czech Republic.  (Photo by Matej Divizna/Getty Images)
PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC - JUNE 17: Jonas Knudsen of Denmark in action during UEFA U21 European Championship Group A match between Czech Republic and Denmark at Eden Stadium on June 17, 2015 in Prague, Czech Republic. (Photo by Matej Divizna/Getty Images)

It’s hard to say just how big a weapon Knudsen’s long throw will be for the Blues, but it would hardly be surprising to see McCarthy take up a Tony Pulis-style approach.

That would make having three commanding defenders on the pitch very useful indeed, with Smith and Berra trotting forward every time the ball goes into touch.

Besides, the fact that the duo scored 11 goals between them last season rather speaks volumes.

IPSWICH, ENGLAND - MAY 09: Christophe Berra of Ipswich is tackled by Steven Whittaker of Norwich during the Sky Bet Championship Playoff semi-final first leg match between Ipswich Town and Norwich Cityat Portman Road on May 9, 2015 in Ipswich, England.  (
IPSWICH, ENGLAND - MAY 09: Christophe Berra of Ipswich is tackled by Steven Whittaker of Norwich during the Sky Bet Championship Playoff semi-final first leg match between Ipswich Town and Norwich Cityat Portman Road on May 9, 2015 in Ipswich, England. (

So, although we may have to endure many more games of watching Chambers drift wearily out of position and, occasionally, wondering how Smith earns a living, take solace in the fact that the gaffer knows exactly what he’s doing.

Should Ipswich keep the defensive core intact and once again reap goalscoring and solidity benefits, the argument for a more natural, pacy set-up will once again peter out into nothingness.

Why Ipswich Town Will Make the Championship Play-Offs in 2014/2015

Jul 5, 2014
WATFORD, ENGLAND - APRIL 19: Anthony Wordsworth of Ipswich celebrates with fans after he scores the his team's first goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Watford and Ipswich Town at Vicarage Road on April 19, 2014 in Watford, England. (Photo by Charlie Crowhurst/Getty Images)
WATFORD, ENGLAND - APRIL 19: Anthony Wordsworth of Ipswich celebrates with fans after he scores the his team's first goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Watford and Ipswich Town at Vicarage Road on April 19, 2014 in Watford, England. (Photo by Charlie Crowhurst/Getty Images)

Five years is a long time to be dark horses and nothing more, but Ipswich Town may finally be set to make a concerted push for the Championship play-offs.   

Since 2009, the club have struggled to build on pre-season hype, with the managerial tenures of Roy Keane and Paul Jewell resulting in disappointment.

However, the arrival of experienced boss Mick McCarthy in 2012 ensured that solidity and optimism became the latest buzz words around Portman Road.

The vast improvement in 2013/2014 saw the club regenerate from a relegation-battling group of individuals to a play-off chasing team. Things can only improve. Town, with minor alterations, can challenge at the top next season.

Defensive stalwart Christophe Berra, an outstanding acquisition on a free transfer last summer, told the BBC that McCarthy had "done a great job on a small budget." This is perhaps the most pertinent argument for Town's play-off push next season.

The former Republic of Ireland manager was able to sign Berra, Cole Skuse and Dean Gerken on free transfers in the summer of 2013. All three were regulars in the side that missed out on a play-off berth by four points.

Paul Anderson, who netted five goals last season, told the East Anglian Daily Times that Town's tight-knit squad, assembled on a shoestring budget, was one of their biggest assets. "We always believed that our work-rate and togetherness would be our strength," said the midfielder.

This point was vindicated by some exceptional statistics. McCarthy used only 26 players throughout the course of the league campaign; a testament to the togetherness that Anderson referred to. To attain a ninth-placed finish with a small squad also highlights McCarthy's ability to get the best out of the players at his disposal.

Another impressive feat saw Town lose only three games against teams in the bottom half of the Championship table all season, according to Statto.com. This was better than three of the sides who finished above them (Wigan Athletic, Brighton & Hove Albion and Blackburn Rovers).

McCarthy's first-choice back four, which cost only £420,000 to assemble, were ranked eighth by Statto.com for the fewest amount of goals conceded. Only Aaron Cresswell cost the club a fee, with Berra and Luke Chambers free transfers and Tommy Smith promoted from the academy set-up.

Derby County, who finished the season in third, were reported by the BBC to have spent more than £1 million alone on current centre-back and captain Richard Keogh in 2012.

The Rams conceded only two goals fewer than Town in 2013/14; this is perhaps the best indication of the work that McCarthy has done on his cost-effective defence.

IPSWICH, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 15:  Aaron Cresswell of Ipswich Town during the Sky Bet Championship match between Ipswich Town and Blackpool at Portman Road on February 15, 2014 in Ipswich, England.  (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images)
IPSWICH, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 15: Aaron Cresswell of Ipswich Town during the Sky Bet Championship match between Ipswich Town and Blackpool at Portman Road on February 15, 2014 in Ipswich, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images)

However, the former Sunderland and Wolves manager will be hoping to bolster his defensive ranks following the departure of Cresswell to West Ham United. The former Tranmere man, who made 13 assists last season, was voted into the PFA Championship team of the year for 2014.

His departure could see Tyrone Mings, a free signing from Chippenham in 2012, occupy the vacancy at left-back.

Makeshift right-back and captain Chambers was often caught out by pacy wingers, although McCarthy may be hesitant to replace him with the inexperienced Elliott Hewitt.

It will be intriguing to see whether McCarthy opts for a Premier League loanee, particularly given the impact made by Jonny Williams upon his arrival from Crystal Palace last season.

A teasing, attacking midfielder, Williams injected life into Town's play-off push after talisman David McGoldrick had his season cut short by a knee injury in February.

The Welsh international shone in back-to-back wins over Brighton and Derby and looks set to attract plenty of attention from other clubs over the summer. Even if Town could afford him on a permanent deal, the 20-year-old is destined for bigger things.

A lack of creativity in central midfield stands out as being the area most in need of attention this summer. Despite the solidity of Skuse and tenaciousness of the home-grown Luke Hyam, neither offered much in the opposition's final third over the course of the season.

Stuart Watson, reporter for the EADT and the Ipswich Star, also spoke of the need, via Twitter, for McCarthy to invest the money from Cresswell's sale into "an out-and-out creative/goalscoring central midfielder."

According to the Football League website, Skuse provided only three assists and failed to score in 43 appearances. Hyam, perhaps the more naturally attacking of the two, scored only once from his central berth.

Leicester City, the division's standout performers and champions, showed the importance of having a central midfield that contributes in an attacking sense. The Football League recorded Danny Drinkwater and Matt James as having scored four goals and provided eight assists between them in 2013/2014. 

However, there is another reason for Town fans to be optimistic. The signing of pacy winger Cameron Stewart on a free offers a previously unavailable option to McCarthy. While Anderson and Jay Tabb were often deployed down the wing last year, neither offer the trickery of former Hull player Stewart.

The workmanlike nature of McCarthy's side last season meant the team needed a lift in quality from midfield; Williams was the catalyst for better attacking play but was often deployed in a No. 10 role off of Daryl Murphy.

Stewart will provide that quality, as well as a goal threat. The former Manchester United academy player will have supporters on the edge of their seats. He may even put Town on the edge of the play-offs.

McCarthy's side begin the season at home to Fulham and will also face local rivals Norwich City before August is finished; both sides were relegated from the Premier League last season.

Sky Sports pundit Peter Beagrie told the broadcaster's website that there is great pressure upon the likes of the Cottagers and the Canaries, citing Harry Redknapp's play-off-winning QPR team.

Beagrie said: "I think, when you look at the way they [QPR] went about their business, we said Harry was not over-enamoured with the Championship. But it wasn't that, it was the pressure, and because of how critical it can be for teams coming down."

With Reading and Derby also early-season opponents, the first month of the campaign may seem a slightly daunting one.

However, Beagrie's assessment of the pressure relegated sides must endure will give Town supporters hope that both Fulham and Norwich may leave Portman Road empty-handed.

With some more astute business in the transfer market, the club could be strong candidates for a top-six finish. McCarthy has found the formula to promotion before. Town must hope he can find it again.

Premier League Cliches: Second Season Syndrome—Is It Real?

Dec 20, 2012

Aim

To analyse the concept of "Second Season Syndrome". And attempt to the answer the question, "Is it just a sporting cliché or if it is—in fact—"a thing"?".


Hypotheses 


"Second Season Syndrome"

Null Hypothesis: A team, who after defying expectations and punching well above their weight in their first season in a new division, suffers from an anti-climactic second season, enduring a severe collapse in form, slumping down the table and possibly ending in relegation.

Variable Hypothesis: "Second Season Syndrome" can also affect the form of an individual player, who after an exceptional start for a new club, performs significantly worse in his second season. 

Alternative Hypothesis: When "Second Season Syndrome" has the opposite effect on a team or player, leading to them or him performing far above the level they produced in their first season, thereby massively exceeding expectations.

The "False Dawn" Hypothesis: When a player performs as badly in his second and third seasons for a new club as he did in his first. Every occasional goal he scores leads to the suggestion of a "new dawn", which then leads inevitably to the climax of a "false dawn". Probably caused by a loss of pace, confidence and the burden of a £50 million price tag, it is also known as "The Fernando Torres Variable" In fact, it only applies to Fernando Torres.

Introduction

I’m sure everyone would agree that football and science pretty much go hand in hand—honest, they do. I’m also sure that there is nothing footballers and scientists like better than a good cliché or two.

One of the great clichés that floats around modern day football is the concept of "Second Season Syndrome". The best example of "Second Season Syndrome" that I can think of, in the modern era, is that of Ipswich Town.  They finished an impressive fifth in 2000-01, their first season back in top flight (to put it into context they finished five points above Chelsea, and Manchester City got relegated), but then went on to finish 18th the next season, thereby getting relegated.

Method

I will test every one of my hypotheses individually using carefully selected examples in a controlled environment. (Anything I can think of, whilst sitting on my computer).

Equipment

  • Microsoft Word
  • My brain
  • A cup of Coffee
  • The Internet
  • A Bunsen Burner


Analysis

Null Hypothesis 

Example

For Ipswich to go from finishing fifth one season to 18th the next is an extraordinary occurrence in modern day football. In the old days (a generally referred to period any season before the inception of the Premier League), a team could win the league one season then get relegated the next, quite easily. I have no evidence to back this up other than my dad claiming Man City won the League then got relegated the next every season for about 30 odd years or so (clearly impossible and certainly not true). But I’m sure, it must have happened a lot.

There was a mitigating factor in Ipswich’s slump in form though, this being the UEFA Cup. Ipswich’s incredible first season back in the top flight led to them unexpectedly qualifying for the UEFA Cup, a competition they were not prepared to compete, despite a solid run to the third round in which they were thwarted by Inter Milan, and their squad struggle to deal with the extra games.

But, as this is a very technical and accurate scientific experiment, we need some data.

Ipswich's squad was stretched by these extra European ties, but then it was only six extra games, all played before the turn of the year. In fact in 2000-01, when they finished fifth, they also went on a League Cup run to the Semi final, an extra six games, whereas in 2001-02, they only played two League Cup games (in the FA Cup they made it to the fourth round both times).

So therefore in 2001-02 when they finished 13 places lower in the league than the season before, they played just two extra games overall. So were the travails of the UEFA Cup really behind Ipswich’s slump in form in their second season? Or were they struck down by the cursed "Second Season Syndrome"? 

Conclusion

Ipswich’s European exploits in 2001-02 had a part to play in their disappointing start to the domestic season (see Newcastle this season and Birmingham last season). But, they were out of Europe by December 6, having accumulated just eight league points to the 25 they had at the same stage the previous season.

Surely though a team that were good enough to finish fifth the season before, had enough time to recover their form in the second half of the season, and if not rediscover the lofty heights of the previous season, at least avoid relegation? But they were unable to do so, and were relegated and have not since returned to the top flight.

Verdict 

"Second Season Syndrome" strikes.


Variable Hypothesis

Example

The theory behind "Second Season Syndrome" suggests that not only can it affect a team in their second season; it can also affect an individual.

Using the Ipswich Town example again, one of the reasons behind their stuttering second league campaign was that their star striker (and I use the word star here extremely loosely) Marcus Stewart managed an impressive 19 league goals in their first season in the league, compared to just six in his second. Ipswich Town’s goal scored statistic fell from 57 in 2000-01 to just 41 in 2001-02. This is one of many examples of a player having an incredible impact on a division in their first season and then struggle greatly in their second, of which there are many currently floating around the Premier League.

Grant Holt, a similar case to Marcus Stewart, performed extremely well in his first season in the Premier League. He managed an impressive 15 goals in 36 league games for Norwich (even more impressive considering he started just 21 of those games). But his form has fallen away this season, with just four in 17 (starting 15 of those). It is not just the goals with Grant Holt, last season his overall play was far better and his link up and hold up play was excellent. This season he has looked far less sharp overall. 

Then there is Papiss Cisse. Cisse only signed for Newcastle in January, and missed the first couple of weeks for his new club because of the African Cup of Nations. When he returned, he had quite a staggering impact on the Premier League, not only in his goal rate (13 in his first 14), but also in the immense quality of the goals that he scored. This season he has managed just two in 15 in the league, one a relatively bog standard poacher’s effort; the other went in off his back as he tried to get out of the way.

Quite the world of difference (to use a scientific term) from some of his efforts from last season.

It is more difficult to coin this as a classic case of "Second Season Syndrome" as he has not yet had a full season of Premier League action, but the drop off in form over the summer is incredibly poignant. There are other factors in Cisse’s decline (for more information read "The Gerrard-Lampard Paradigm"’), but purely on the statistics of goals scored, and the threat that he offers when one watches him play, Cisse is massively struggling for form this season.

Finally, there is Gylfi Sigurdsson. After kick-starting his career with an excellent season in the Championship with Reading, he secured a move to Bundesliga side Hoffenheim. There he had a solid first season scoring nine in 29 from midfield.

But after a disappointing start to 2011-12 he was loaned to Swansea, where he teamed up again with Brendan Rodgers whom he had worked with at Reading. His level of play for Swansea at the back end of last season was exceptional; in 18 appearances he managed seven goals and five assists, and he became one of the most popular players of the 2011-12 season with both Swansea fans and neutral Premier League fans alike. 

This season, however, has been a different story. He turned down a permanent deal with Swansea, then made a move to Liverpool, where Brendan Rodgers had taken over, in order to accept an offer from Spurs. At Swansea he seemed to thrive off being the centre of play. However, the competition for space on the pitch and a place on the team at the Spurs has led to a loss in form, as the Spurs have struggled to find him his best position.

This is a difficult case to judge as it is a player who has moved clubs over the summer.  Maybe it is just that he needs an adjustment period? But then again, he managed to adjust to life in the Premier League immediately after his move to Swansea, and with greatest respect to Spurs they don’t quite yet possess the same big club pressure as Manchester United, Chelsea and now Manchester City do.

Verdict

 Grant Holt—"Second Season Syndrome" strikes. His goal rate is down and he does not look as sharp as he did last season. Perhaps he has been affected by the disappointment of being completely overlooked for England for the Euros, despite being the second highest English goal scorer in the Premier League last season.

Papiss Cisse—"Second Season Syndrome" strikes. Perhaps he will come alive in the second half of the season again, but his performances between this season and last season have been stark in contrast.  

Gylfi Sigurdsson—"Second Season Syndrome" doesn’t strike. Sigurdsson does not look the player he was last season, but I think it would be harsh to put that down to "Second Season Syndrome" just yet as he has moved clubs in the summer and it often takes a period for players to gel and find their best position at a new side. Some players often struggle with the step up (see everyone who has moved to Liverpool in the last two years, bar Luis Suarez).


Alternative Hypothesis

Example

We are now heading into real theoretical territory. When approaching something scientifically you have to look at both sides of the argument, and if "Second Season Syndrome" can be construed negatively, perhaps it can also be construed positively.

Is it possible that if a player has an average or disappointing first season for a new club, that they can use that experience in order to have a much improved second season? Examples of these are rare in modern football, where there exists a short term mentality in which players and managers alike aren’t really given a chance to improve on a disappointing start in the same way that they were in the (somewhat fabled) old days of football.

In Charlie Austin’s first full season with Burnley, he managed a very respectable 16 goals in 41 games. This is a good return by any striker, especially considering he had to play second fiddle to Jay Rodriguez for much of the campaign, who managed to 15 in 37 in the league and 21 in 42 in all competitions. 

This season, however, with Jay Rodriguez's move to Southampton, Charlie Austin has flourished, managing 19 in 21 in the league, and 22 in 24 in all competitions. He recently made headlines for being one of only three strikers in Europe to have scored 20 goals in all competitions so far this season alongside the lesser known names of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Austin managed an excellent goal return last season considering he wasn’t Burnley’s main man, but "Second Season Syndrome" has struck for him this season. He has taken the Championship by storm and is now being linked with a move to several Premier League clubs in January.


Then there is the second highest goal scorer in the Championship, a player who is important to me for all the wrong reasons; Glenn Murray. Murray led the line for Brighton in their excellent League One title winning campaign of 2010-11. He was known as the League One Dimitar Berbatov for his languid style of play and his classy finishing. He then decided to up sticks in the summer and move to Brighton’s bitter rivals Crystal Palace on a free transfer. 

Last season he had a relatively dismal first campaign, though he managed a goal against former club Brighton at their new home, sealing a 3-1 win (the b*****d) and a winner in the League Cup against Manchester United at Old Trafford (the b*****d). In the league though, he managed just six in 38. This season though, he has been fantastic, linking up fantastically with Crystal Palace starlet Wilfried Zaha. Murray has managed 20 in 18 in the league so far (he put two past Brighton a couple of weeks ago, making me feel physically sick). 

Conclusion

Both Glenn Murray and Charlie Austin are examples of how "Second Season Syndrome" can be construed to have a positive effect on a player who uses the experience of their first season for a new club at a new level to adjust, then excels in their second season. But perhaps then, it shouldn’t be called a "syndrome", as syndrome is a word with negative connotations. 

Perhaps it should be referred to in these cases as "Second Season Synergy" (admittedly I’m unsure what "synergy" actually means, but my dictionary is all the way downstairs and not on my equipment list so I can’t use it. But it sounds positive and sort of similar to "syndrome", so I’m going to use it anyway, and football is well known for making up words ((such as the Iain Dowie classic ‘bouncebackability’)).

Verdict

Charlie Austin and Glenn Murray—"Second Season Synergy" strikes. Both players used their first seasons of Championship football for their new sides to adjust and bed in, and are now excelling in their second seasons.


The False Dawn Hypothesis

Example 

Fernando Torres. Fernando Torres is rubbish. Just watch him play for Chelsea. In the Club World Cup final he was absolutely shocking. He has unfortunately scored a few lately, which has inevitably led to another "false dawn" fiasco. Hopefully it won’t last too long.


Conclusion

Fernando Torres is rubbish.

Verdict

See above.


Evaluation

I feel as though I have rationally explained and provided evidence to suggest that every single one of my hypotheses do in fact prove that "Second Season Syndrome" really is "a thing".

Teams can suffer from it, in cases such as Ipswich Town, and so can players, with examples such as Marcus Stewart and Grant Holt having clear dips in form in their respective second Premier League seasons. It will be interesting to see in the future whether players such as Swansea’s Michu, the joint top scorer in the league this season, will struggle next season like Cisse or Holt have this season, or maybe he’ll move to a bigger club and find it difficult to adapt like Gylfi Sigurdsson.

I am also using this experiment to prove the existence of my new concept "Second Season Synergy", which can now exist alongside the better known "Second Season Syndrome". There is proof players can use an average or difficult first season as experience in order to flourish in their second, and in the cases of Charlie Austin and Glenn Murray, it is something that is prevalent in every level of football, not just the Premier League. 


Conclusion

Scientifically speaking, and I’m speaking scientifically here, the evidence I have provided speaks for itself. "Second Season Syndrome" and now "Second Season Synergy", as well, despite being somewhat of a cliché, are most certainly "a thing".    

Ipswich Town: Jimmy Bullard's Drinking Binge May Leave Him Without a Club

Mar 3, 2012

Ipswich Town have suspended Jimmy Bullard after a supposed drinking binge session. Bullard is constantly clashing with club officials and this latest incident has got him in the bad books once again.

This isn’t the first time Jimmy Bullard has been cautioned by a club down to a drinking issue—the last time it happened was at Hull City and it led to his contract being cancelled.

33-year-old Bullard has been ordered to stay away from the club while Ipswich discusses the options about the midfielder’s future.

Another Ipswich squad member who may also be in trouble is their leading goal scorer, Michael Chopra. Chopra and Bullard decided to cut short a team bonding session which was being held in London and headed up to Newcastle for a big night on the town.

They were supposedly spotted in night clubs around Newcastle in the early hours of Wednesday morning. 

Jimmy Bullard already has a tense relationship with manager Paul Jewell after falling out last year in a dispute about Bullard’s living arrangements. Bullard refused to move from his Cobham, Surrey residence to live closer to the club and it lost him his place in the starting XI.

Bullard is also thought of as taking a relaxed attitude to training and constantly bragging about his wages.

Paul Jewell is set to make a statement about the issue after Ipswich Town’s game against Bristol City this weekend.

Meet Connor Wickham: The Next Steven Gerrard

May 31, 2010

England, as the world already knows, is the mother country of the sport of football as we know it. From far and wide, names of the past like Sir Bobby Charlton, Alf Ramsey, Gary Lineker, and Bobby Robson; to modern ones like David Beckham, Wayne Rooney, Michael Owen, John Terry, Frank Lampard, Joe Cole, Rio Ferdinand, and others are recognized far and wide.

But those that follow that follow the world game will need to keep a keen eye out for the man I proudly proclaim the next Steven Gerrard.

Connor Wickham is a striker hailing from Hereford and playing for Football League Championship side Ipswich Town. Why Wickham? Because he helped the England U-17 national team defeat Spain on Saturday 2-1, ending a 17-year drought for England in winning a championship.

Delightful coincidence, isn't it?

And this is a player who considers Liverpool's Fernando Torres as one of his heroes. The same Fernando Torres that will be suiting up for La Furia Roja in a few days' time at the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

The son of an Army officer, Wickham was born on March 31, 1993 in Hertfordshire's county town. Indeed, Hereford means—in the old Anglo-Saxon vernacular—"a place where an army fords or crosses the river," in this case, the Wye River.

The home of Hereford United Football Club, Hereford is home to one of the oldest nine-pin skittle league, founded on October 24, 1902. Skittle is a precursor to ten-pin, duckpin, and nine-pin bowling. Interestingly enough, skittle exists in the German communities of Texas under the name kegeln.

But Wickham was not going to dwell into taking down nine pins at a pub. It was the thrill of emulating Torres on the football pitch that drove him.

A fixture at Colchester's Gilberd School, Wickham juggled academics and athletics as if they were a sphere of ambitions lifted high into the air. From 2002-2006, Wickham played for the youth sides of Reading F.C. before beginning his career playing for the Tractor Boys of Ipswich Town.

Eventually, his career rose to new heights with his ability as a striker. On April 11, 2009, Connor Wickham, at the tender age of 16 years and 11 days, became the youngest player to play for Ipswich. The beat the record held by Jason Dozzell by 46 days.

Three appearances later, Wickham hit paydirt, scoring two goals in the 11th and 59th minutes to go with a conversion against against Shrewsbury Town in the 2009-10 Football League Cup First Round.

Two days after signing his first professional contract, Wickham scored in the 90th minute en route to a 3-1 Ipswich victory over Derby County in April 2010.

The fruits of the young prodigical son began to take shape at the 2010 UEFA U-17 Championship.

In Group One of the qualifying round (first qualifying stage), Wickham scored a hat trick against Azerbaijan on October 28, 2009 in Baku. The Three Lions only had two goals scored against them—both against Kazakhstan in a 6-2 rout two days before Wickham's hat trick—while scoring 11.

In Group Seven of the elite round (second qualifying stage), Wickham brought home more of the same with a 21st minute strike against Sweden en route to a 40 win on March 27. He followed that up with a 60th minute goal against Slovakia to help England secure a spot in the finals, held in Liechtenstein. This time, while England's XI scored another 11 once again, they were not scored on.

And Wickham may have failed to score in the group stages, but in the 3-1 victory over the Czech Republic, Wickham proved that an assist is fine too. Times two. After a impressive display against Greece, he was given a rest against Turkey, which England also won.

In the semifinals, Wickham pulled off an impressive brace against France.

Armed with a deadly left-foot shot, Wickham was clutch, scoring goals in the 23rd and 40th minutes to pace England to a 2-0 victory...and a date with Spain.

Spain had a couple of deadly attackers in Francisco Alcacer and Gerard Deulofeu. Gerard opened the proceedings in Vaduz's Rheinpark Stadion with a 22nd minute strike.

However, the tables would turn soon after.

Andre Wisdom equalized in the 30th minute of play, and who else but the great Connor Wickham would all but seal the deal in the 42nd?

Not only can Wickham deliver a scorching finish, he can beat two Spanish defenders while putting goalkeeper Adrian Ortala on notice.

This is no ordinary young player making his mark. Wickham already has secured a sponsorship deal with Umbro this year and there has been talk of Wickham joining Tottenham Hotspur for £5 million.

That's how good the young man donning the No. 40 for Ipswitch Town is. And the scary thing is...he's only going to get better as time goes on.

Look out England, look out Europe, and look out world. Connor Wickham is coming, and he wants to eat your lunch.