Vanderbilt Football

This postseason, B/R college football writers are teaming up to preview every bowl game. Be sure to check them all out!

No. 24 Boston College (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)

Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2008, 3:30 PM ET

LP Field, Nashville, TN

Spread: Boston College -4

How they got here...

Boston College is making its 10th-straight bowl appearance, and they're also leading the nation with an eight-game bowl-winning streak. The Eagles were the ACC Atlantic Division champs, but failed to beat Virginia Tech in the conference championship game finishing the season 9-4 and ready to extend their winning streak to nine.

Vanderbilt was the nation's Cinderella story early in the season with a 5-0 start that was sending shockwaves through college football circles, especially those in the SEC. But after their fantastic start, the Commodores lost seven of their last eight games finishing fourth in the SEC East.

Statistically speaking...

The story for both of these teams are the defenses.

Boston College led the nation with 26 interceptions. They also accumulated a whopping 36 interceptions and three shutouts.

The Commodores also had big numbers in the interceptions category with 18, second in the SEC.

Offensively speaking neither team had a 1,000-yard rusher and neither team had a quarterback with a completion percentage better than 55 percent.

Boston College is averaging 25.5 points per game compared to Vandy's 19.4. Expect a low-scoring game that will boast of turnovers and big plays on the defensive side of the ball.

Boston College wins if...

...Mark Herzlich and the Eagle defense control the game. With starting quarterback Chris Crane out of the picture with a fractured collarbone, redshirt freshman Dominique Davis will have to stay poised and lead the BC offense down the field.

In only his third start, and first bowl game, he can't be expected to be particularly effective. In the conference championship game against the Hokies, Davis threw two costly interceptions.

Vanderbilt wins if...

...They end the season like they started. The Commodores aren't bringing much to the table except for an exceptional all-SEC cornerback D.J. Moore.

Moore is a multi-threat player who also returns punts and kicks and has even caught two touchdown passes. They need to get the ball in this playmaker's hands, and put it all on the table, and try to get their first bowl win since 1955.

B/R Expert Picks:

Trey Bradley               Boston College

Lisa Horne                  Boston College

Mitch                         Boston College

Brian Scott                 Boston College

David Wunderich          Boston College

Justin Goar                 Vanderbilt

GeorgiaDawg               Boston College

Michael Cline               Boston College

Music City Bowl
Vanderbilt vs. Boston College

Nashville, Tenn.
Wednesday, Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m.; ESPN

Line: Boston College -3.5

Overview

Vanderbilt and Boston College clash in the first of two ACC vs SEC bowl games. The Commodores are playing in a bowl for the first time since 1982 largely aided by a fast start in 2008. Vandy lost six of its last seven games while the BC Eagles won four of their last five and played for the ACC title a few weeks back.

Keys to the Game

1. Turnovers

Vanderbilt lives and dies by them. The Commodores are plus-6 on the year in takeaways but were minus-5 in their final seven games.Vandy ranks 118th in total offense, 104th in points scored, and 113th in passing yards per game in the nation. If Vandy loses the turnover battle they are done. Boston College is pretty good in the turnover area at plus-6 on the season.

2. Can Vanderbilt Run on BC's Defense?

Vanderbilt's best form of offense is the running game where they rank 70th in the country at 138 ypg. But the problem is that BC's run defense is pretty good allowing just 92 ypg and only 70 ypg in their final three games. The strength of the defense is the interior with Ron Brace and BJ Raji manning the defensive tackle spots. Vanderbilt has to shorten this game by being able to run the ball consistently.

Motivation

If you are Vanderbilt, you have to be motivated to play in this one. This senior class is the first class to go to a bowl game in a generation.

Boston College fell to a lower bowl again this year after having lost the ACC Championship Game again, but they have a bowl streak of nine straight wins to defend also. Still, I give a slight edge to Vandy with BC coming off a loss with a BCS berth on the line.

Prediction

Every statistic lines up in Boston College's favor. The only way I see Vandy winning is if they create turnovers and can control the clock.

Boston College may come out a little flat, but they have not played like a jilted bride under "Coach Jags" in his first two years despite getting no credit, so why start now? I like BC big in this one.

Boston College 28, Vanderbilt 13
Boston College Covers +3.5

Confidence Ranking (of 34): 33
My confidence ranking for a Boston College win.

Bowls: 3-2 ATS, 3-2 SU
Season: 34-32-3 ATS, 44-25 SU

My Home Page

The year was 1982. New Year's Eve, to be exact. The Vanderbilt Commodores faced off with the Air Force Falcons in the Hall of Fame Bowl (Then known as the All-American Bowl or the Hall of Fame Classic).

The coaching staff for that year's team reads like a roster of never-weres: Mark Bradley (not the Mark Bradley of Kansas City Chiefs fame, the other one). Watson Brown. Bob Brush. Monty Crook. Gene DeFilippo. Kurt Van Valkenburgh. Greg Mantooth. Oh, and head coach George MacIntyre.

You remember him, right? After leaving the Commodores (due in large part to a diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis), he worked for a company that recruited college football players to sell fire extinguishers, then coached five years as the Defensive Coordinator at Liberty University before retiring completely from sports.

No disrespect for Mr. McIntyre regarding his disease; but as for his coaching career, he definitely took a downward turn.

This motley crew of never-rans guided the Commodores to an 8-3 record to earn them the bowl bid. Being 13 at the time, I don't recall much of the game, only that my Uncle Martin was decked out in Black-and-Gold for the entire month of December.

Notable players for Vanderbilt in that game include quarterback Whit Taylor, Phil Roach, and Norman Jordan (don't bother...I couldn't find much on any of them besides Taylor: USFL—enough said). As a team that was pass-happy at a time when the wishbone formation and the option play were cornerstones of college football, Vanderbilt went into the game ready to decimate the Falcons secondary. 

They didn't do too badly in that regard; Taylor threw for 452 yards and four touchdowns. Norman Jordan set a still-standing Vanderbilt record of 20 receptions in a single game.

But it wasn't enough. The Falcons picked up 331 yards on the ground, and intercepted Taylor three times—twice in the end zone—in route to a 36-28 comeback win.

With that loss the Commodores bowl record fell to 1-1-1: a win against Auburn in the 1955 Gator Bowl, a tie with Texas Tech in the 1974 Peach Bowl, and of course, the loss to the Falcons.

Vanderbilt hasn't made it back since. Oh, they've tried; they will start off fast, winning their first few games before succumbing to the pressures of playing in one of the most competitive conferences in college football (I KNOW that will elicit some responses).

Finally this year they managed enough wins against good enough teams to earn a bowl bid. They face the 25th-ranked Boston College Eagles in the Music City Bowl. BC comes into this bowl game with a nation-leading eight-game bowl winning streak.

Here's where the irony comes in. I know you've been waiting for it.

The Air Force Falcons—the last team Vanderbilt faced in a bowl game—are now the Air Force Eagles.

Gene DeFilippo, a member of the coaching staff for the 1982 Vanderbilt squad, is currently the Athletic Director for Boston College. Talk about old home week.

In a twist, this Vanderbilt team is more run-oriented than pass-oriented. Quarterback Chris Johnson is as likely to run the ball as he is to throw it. And McKenzie Adams is a running back who happens to line up under center.

Boston College, on the other hand, is not particularly strong in the passing or running game, but they do have a better than average defense. In Vandy's last bowl appearance, the opposing offense ran the ball all day, and got the win more on bad throws by Taylor than on a stalwart pass defense.

(End of irony, for what it's worth—I warned you it was only a touch...)

The result of this game has playoff record implications for both teams; Boston College hopes to extend it bowl winning streak to nine, while Vanderbilt just wants to finally have a winning bowl record, or at least not a losing one.

It's not much, but .500 sounds a lot better than .333.

It's taken Vanderbilt better than two decades to get back to a bowl game and avenge it's last loss. All of the players from the last bowl game are old enough to be fathers of the entire Commodores roster.

If patience is a virtue, then the 'Dores have it in spades.

It's time. Go Vandy. Beat the Eagles.

Oh, and Bobby Johnson? Make sure George McIntyre has a ticket. He still lives in Nashville, and he was, after all, your coach at one time. If you guys can pull this one out, it'd be nice to see both of the last two bowl-winning coaches on the sidelines.

Vanderbilt (6-6) vs. Boston College (9-4)
Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN
Dec. 31, 2:30 PM

All-Time Series: Boston College 2-0
All-Time Bowl Records: Boston College 13-6, Vanderbilt 1-1-1
Monday’s Line: Boston College -3.5

Relevant Statistics

Total Offense, Scoring Offense (National Rank)

Boston College: 318.9 ypg (94th), 25.5 ppg (61st)
Vanderbilt: 260.9 ypg (118th), 19.4 ppg (104th)

Total Defense, Scoring Defense (National Rank)

Boston College: 273.4 ypg (sixth), 18.5 ppg (18th)
Vanderbilt: 318.7 ypg (29th), 20.1 ppg (27th)

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: No matter what happens Wednesday night in the Music City Bowl, it’s a remarkable accomplishment for this Vanderbilt team to have made it to a bowl game. With the losses from last year’s team, the consensus was that VU would bring up the rear of the SEC East, with College Football guru Phil Steele even predicting an 0-8 SEC slate.

Now for the reality: This Vanderbilt team was playing bad football at the end of the season. They enter Wednesday’s game with Boston College having lost six of seven games, including a road game at woeful Mississippi State and an inexplicable home loss to Dook.

Offensively, VU has struggled all season, and this Eagle defensive unit is particularly stingy. They lead the country in interceptions with 26 and returned five for TDs, which is tied for best in the country. It will be very tough for the ‘Dores to generate any sort of consistent offense.

It’s a good thing for the Eagles their defense has been so tough, as the offense has been up and down as they searched for a replacement for QB Matt Ryan, who just led the ATL Falcons to an 11-5 record. The current starter is Dominique Davis, who took over after a broken collarbone sidelined Chris Crane. BC has won four of five, dropping a 30-12 game last time out to VaTech in the ACC Title Game.

The common logic is that the team that’s happier to be there will more often than not win the bowl game. Certainly the Commodores are thrilled to be in any bowl, and the Eagles may be a little disappointed, as they were one win away from an Orange Bowl bid. I just don’t see it though. All this BC program does is win bowl games, and they’ll do it again Tuesday afternoon.

Boston College 24, Vanderbilt 6

The holidays are here, and with them come goodwill, gifts, and well wishes! With this in mind we here at the College Football Guys wish to give a load of gifts away this season.

We extend the following gifts and wishes to these college football programs.

Texas and freshman safety Blake Gideon—A second chance at an interception that would have ended the "Miracle in Lubbock" and given the 'Horns a January trip to Miami, Fla., over Glendale, Ariz.

Miami of Ohio—Mike Haywood without his great offensive play calling skills.

Arizona Wildcat Fans—The three year extension you just gave Mike Stoops. Trust us, you will want it back after next year. Seems Wildcat fans have forgotten this Stoops isn't Bob.

USC and Pete Carroll—Independence from the Pac-10. As an independent, the Trojans would enjoy a schedule without 0-12 Washington and 2-10 WAZZU.

The State of Washington—A victory against a FBS school located outside the borders of the Evergreen State.

Ohio State—A BCS game against a team outside of the SEC. Done! Maybe you won't have to change the locker room combination this year.

Auburn—Like the sibling that can't compete for his parent's affection, our gift to the Tigers is self confidence, not a new coach. Just because your brother isn't sickly anymore and is starting to beat you up again doesn't mean you suck! Just means you were never as good as him.

Michigan—A historic season. Wait, that was 2008! OK, how about a Sheraton Hawaii Bowl invitation for '09 and a QB that can run the spread option.

Baylor—A transfer from the Big 12 South to the Big 12 North. The Bears will shine with freshman QB Robert Griffin but not as brightly as they would playing the foes in the Big 12's northland.

Texas A&M—A formation that allows an eligible 12th man. Maybe they can sneak one in on the Piedmont A11 offense.

Arizona State—An offensive line that can protect a QB and the ability to win ANY big game. Littl' Elway better have his pop's legs.

Indiana—A 2009 schedule packed full of Northwestern and FCS programs.

UCLA and Rick Neuheisel—About 14, 15, maybe 16 fewer interceptions from a starting quarterback.

Vanderbilt—Knowledge that the season is 12 games long, not six. Season ending losses to Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Duke left a gash on a great start to the season.

Kansas State—A spring recruiting class full of freshmen. Ron Prince's experiment to sign 19 JC transfers this year reeked of desperation and didn't turn out so well.

West Virginia—Four more years of Pat White.

Notre Dame—A victory in a bowl for the first time since 1993.

Merry Christmas to all...


...and to the Irish a good night.

Tennessee and Vanderbilt meet on the college football gridiron for the 102nd time Saturday, at Vanderbilt Stadium. Despite the long history of battle between these two teams, the rivalry is hardly looked at outside of the state of Tennessee.

This will be the first time in recent memory that the Vols will be the underdog, not the Commodores. The Vols lead the overall series with a 69-27-5 record against the Commodores.

The Vols come in fresh off a shocking Nov. 8 loss at home to Wyoming and sit at 3-7, and only 1-5 in SEC play.

The Commodores come in as the favorite with a record of 6-4 overall and a 4-3 conference record. Vandy became bowl eligible for the first time since 1982 just last week with a 31-24 win over Kentucky.

Many are looking forward to the Texas Tech—Oklahoma game over the weekend, but this match-up should not be overlooked. Both teams will come in playing smash-mouth, SEC football.

These two teams have a genuine dislike for each other. Expect Tennessee to come out of the gates looking like a Top 25 team to take on their hated rivals from Nashville.

This rivalry has always been pushed to the waste side due to Vanderbilt's history of mediocrity. However, if you know anything about the history of head-to-head match-ups between these two teams, you'll know that this game is consistently a battle that comes down to the final drive.

This year's match-up will be no different. This will hardly be a road game for Tennessee. Historically, the Volunteer faithful has filled up the majority of Vanderbilt Stadium with orange. So the home-field advantage factor should immediately be taken out.

If you look at how these teams match-up, they are actually very similar, despite their records. Tennessee and Vanderbilt both struggle heavily on offense. Tennessee ranks at 117th in total offense, and Vanderbilt at 118th in total offense.

The defenses are the strong points of both teams. The first team to score 20 points will probably win this game.

The X-factor of this game will be the impact that Vanderbilt quarterback Chris Nickson brings to this game. Nickson can beat you with his arm or his legs, and Vanderbilt Coach Bobby Johnson will bring many different packages in on offense to throw off the Tennessee defense.

If the Tennessee defense can figure out a way to get Nickson out of his comfort zone, this game will turn into a defensive struggle where anything can happen.

If Tennessee had remotely any offense, I would give them the nod in this game. Unlike most years, however, Tennessee has so many things working against them in this game.

The players are psychologically messed up due to the firing of Phillip Fulmer. The lack of talent at quarterback has to face a Vanderbilt defense that has forced 16 interceptions as a team.

Tennessee will have another poor offensive showing to go along with a solid defensive performance. Rocky Top has seen better days, and Saturday will add to that with only their 2nd loss to Vanderbilt in over 20 years.

Prediction: Vandy over Tennessee 17-7

Early in the fourth, Nickson once again had the offense rolling. Scrambling and short passes put the Commodores on the Kentucky 4. Junior RB Jared Hawkins took the subsequent snap and cruised four yards into the end zone to widen the Vanderbilt lead, 31-17.

Kentucky found themselves with good field position, and Cobb took the team down into the red zone once again. After a big 33-yard completion to E.J Adams, Vanderbilt watched Randall Cobb find pay dirt almost untouched. The ‘Dores looked determined to stop the suddenly lively Kentucky offense.

With about five minutes left, the Randall Cobb and the crew got the ball back. The first three plays amassed 37 yards, and Kentucky appeared to be strolling down the field with ease.

At the Vanderbilt 29-yard line, the ‘Dores defense began to stiffen up. They were looking for a big play to lock up the game and secure bowl eligibility.

On a crucial fourth down, Cobb dropped back and fired a rocket that ended up in the hands of a playmaker. Unfortunately for Kentucky, that playmaker played for Vanderbilt. D.J. Moore’s second interception sealed the sixth win for the Commodores and a shot at a bowl game this winter.

Isn’t college football at this time of year like pre-tournament college hoops?  At least for the BCS conference commissioners who are sweating out filling their bowl contracts, who signed up more bowls this year than last.

Thirty-four bowls, sixty-eight teams.  BCS conferences have contracted for 48 bowls with another two for the National Championship game.  Eighteen spots for non-BCS football teams. 

More than they deserve, but throw them a scrap.  In a good year, non-BCS teams will get 15 percent of the bowl revenues.  When Notre Dame makes a BCS bowl, they get 1 percent. 

The real money are college football’s version of Bubble Games between conference teams verging on bowl-eligibility or being home for the holidays.  More bowl contracts filled means more revenue to be shared for the conferences. 

Who’s doing the most sweating?  (Besides the non-BCS teams wanting to fill an empty contract slot)   Which teams are on the Bubble Watch, while we look at the top games? 

Here’s what the conference commissioners will be watching: 

***Overall records are listed behind the Bubble Teams.  Conference records are in parentheses after the team’s schedule. 

ACC—(12 teams) 2008-09 - Contracts for nine bowls (75 percent of teams in conference).                                                                                                          

         Teams In (8)—Maryland, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest. 

   Bubble Teams (3) – Virginia (5-5), Duke (4-5), Clemson (4-5)

         Virginia (3-3) schedule – (Clemson (11/22), Virginia Tech)

         Duke (1-4) schedule - (@Clemson, @Virginia Tech, North Carolina)

         Clemson (2-4) schedule - (Duke, @Virginia, S. Carolina)

  Games of the Week – Duke @ Clemson, two bubble teams - Blue Devils in Death Valley

  Conclusion:  Sitting pretty.  The ACC already has as many bowl-eligible teams as last year and will fill their contracts.  Sweet!  Only one team, NC State, has no chance at a bowl. The ACC may well have two more bowl teams than last year with an outside chance at three.  Cha-ching!

2007-08 Bowls, Profit - $19,263,649 (eight teams)

– Average distribution per conference team (after expenses) - $1.6 Million     

 

Big East—(8 teams) - Contracts for 7 bowls (87.5 percent)

        Teams In (5)—Connecticut, South Florida, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, West Virginia

   Bubble Teams (2)— Louisville (5-4), Rutgers (4-5)

        Louisville (1-3) schedule – Cincinnati, West Virginia, @Rutgers

        Rutgers (3-2) schedule - @S. Florida, Army and Louisville

    Games of the Week – Cincinnati @ Louisville, Rutgers @ S. Florida

 Conclusion:  Sweating it out.  Big East may not fill their contracts and has as many teams as last year already.  The conference would like Louisville to clinch prior to the Rutgers game and for Rutgers to win two of three.  Losing this weekend would mean Rutgers would need to win the Louisville game. 

2007-08 Bowls, Profit - $14,197,021 (five teams)                                                     - Average distribution per conference team - $1.77 Million

 

Big 10—(11 teams) Contracts for 7 bowls (63 percent) 

        Teams In (6)—Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa.

   Bubble Teams (2) — Illinois (5-5), Wisconsin (5-5) 

         Illinois (3-3) schedule – Ohio State, @Northwestern

        Wisconsin (2-5) schedule - Minnesota, Cal-Poly

   Games of the Week— Ohio State @ Illinois, Minnesota @ Wisconsin

Conclusion:  Wisconsin with a losing conference record should qualify with a win over FCS Cal-Poly.  Illinois may have to win at Northwestern to qualify.  The Big Ten will meet its contracts with possibly an extra bowl team.  With eight, you get the same number as last year.

2007-08 Bowls, Profit - $24,394,305  (eight teams) 

– Average distribution per conference team - $2.2 Million

Big 12—(12 teams) Contracts for 9 bowls (75%)

      Teams In (7)—Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Nebraska

  Bubble Teams (2)—Kansas State (4-6), Colorado (5-5)

      Kansas State (1-5) schedule - Nebraska, Iowa State

      Colorado (2-4) schedule - Oklahoma State, @Nebraska

Games of the Week— Nebraska @ K-State, Oklahoma State @ Colorado 

Conclusion:  Hot seat.  Every game now is an elimination game for Kansas State.  For Colorado, the Buffs will probably lose to the Cowboys and then have to go into Lincoln and win.  Should both fall short, the conference will have one less team than last year.  Both teams will have losing conference records and will have relied on their non-conference games to qualify.

2007-08 Bowls, Profit - $21,706,427 (eight teams)      

- Average per conference team - $1.81 million

PAC 10—(10 teams) Contracts for seven bowls (70 percent)

       Teams In (5)—USC, Oregon, California, Oregon State, Arizona 

    Bubble Teams (2) – Stanford (5-5), Arizona St (3-6)

       Stanford (4-3) schedule - USC, @Cal – two tough teams

       ASU (2-4) schedule - Wash St, UCLA, @Arizona – three winnable games

    Probable Out (1)—UCLA (3-6) - Wash, ASU, USC – Bruins need to win out

    Games of the Week— USC@ Stanford, Washington St@ ASU, Washington@ UCLA

Conclusion:   Pac-10 needs Stanford and ASU to win.  UCLA winning out is very improbable.  The probability is that the Pac-10 will again have six bowl teams.

2007-08 Bowls, Profit - $17,647,012 (6 teams) 

-Average per conference team - $1.76 million

 

SEC—(12 teams) Contracts for nine bowls (75 percent)

       Teams In (6)—Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU

   Bubble Teams (2)— Vanderbilt (5-4), Mississippi (5-4)

      Vanderbilt (3-3) schedule – @Kentucky, Tennessee, @Wake Forest

      Mississippi (3-3) schedule - La-Monroe, LSU, Miss St

   Probable Out – Auburn (5-5) - Georgia, @ Alabama.  Tigers need one of two.  Either would be a huge upset.  Tigers are 2-4 in conference play.

   Games of the Week— Vanderbilt @ Kentucky

Conclusion:  Hot seat.  Mississippi should qualify with a win over La-Monroe (3-7).  Vandy should win one of  last three.  Since the SEC had two BCS teams last year, Alabama or Florida going to the National Championship and a second BCS bowl team will not increase bowl revenue.  SEC should have one less team this year and less bowl revenue. 

2007-08 Bowls, Profit - $28,991,720  (nine teams)  

-Average per conference team - $2.42 million

Non-BCS Conference Teams:

Bowl Eligible (15):  Utah, Ball State, Boise State, TCU, BYU, Air Force, C. Michigan, W. Michigan, Tulsa, Rice, East Carolina, Navy (Congressional/Eagle Bank Bowl), San Jose State, Troy, Buffalo

Bubble Teams (11):  Notre Dame (5-4), Akron (5-5), Bowling Green (5-5), Northern Illinois (5-5), Memphis (5-5), Houston (5-4), Fresno State (5-4), Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4), Nevada (5-4), Hawaii (5-5), La Tech (5-4)  

Need Two Wins (6):   UTEP (4-5), S. Miss (4-6), Colorado State (4-6), Fla Int’l (4-5), Ark State (4-5), Fla Atlantic (4-5)

Games of the Week:  Notre Dame @ Navy, Buffalo @ Akron, Tulsa @ Houston, Louisiana-Lafayette @ Florida Atlantic.

   Conclusion:   Non-BCS conference teams may have more than 26 bowl-eligible teams for 18-20 spots.   The SEC may be the sole conference that does not meet its bowl contracts, though the Pac-10 and Big 12 are struggling.  

Total Profits to Non-BCS schools and Other Distribution, 2007-08 Bowls - $16,670,198 – 11.6% of all bowl profits

Non-BCS Conference Teams - 55

Trap Game?

This game for Florida has a lot of the hallmarks of a trap game.

First of all, it is a Vanderbilt game in Nashville. When the Gators won the national championship in 2006, UF only won in Nashville 25-19. When they won the national championship in 1996, they only won in Nashville 28-21. Ron Zook's first squad in 2002 won only 21-17, and his 2004 team trailed at halftime.

I was at the 2004 game, and it's easy to see why it can be a difficult site for a visiting team to get up for a game. The stadium is tiny by SEC standards, there were some empty seats, and it seemed like half of the filled seats were occupied by visiting fans. It was the least threatening road game I've ever attended.

Things have changed for the better, of course, as anyone who saw Auburn's trip to Nashville earlier this season could tell you. It will also be a night game tomorrow, which will amp things up even more.

It will be cold, though, with an overnight low of 43 degrees, and Florida generally only plays one game a year at most in that kind of weather. It does get that cold in Gainesville regularly from late November on, so it's not a huge deal, but it's one more thing to think about.

Throw in the fact that Florida just won the game it's been focusing on for the entire last year by 39 points, plus the fact they can lose and probably still win the division, and you've got a recipe for a letdown. After all, the Ole Miss loss came directly after defeating their rival Tennessee handily.

What's In It For Vandy

Not a lot of people probably remember or have looked it up, but thanks to one of Vandy's losses being to Duke, the Commodores can force a three-way tie atop the SEC East with Florida and Georgia with a win on Saturday. They won't win any three-way tiebreakers, but they can cause some chaos and pick up the win they probably should have gotten in 2005.

Not only that, but Vanderbilt would become bowl eligible for the first time since 1982 with a win. They've been close a couple times over the past few years but haven't quite gotten there. Nothing could be more emphatic than getting that sixth win by defeating a team that many are already starting to pencil into the national title game.

A win would also complete the trifecta of beating the top three teams from the division, since they defeated Tennessee in 2005 and Georgia in 2006.

Could Vanderbilt Win?

Well, it you want to play the football chain game, Vanderbilt beat Ole Miss who beat Florida. That logic is reprehensible and doesn't hold up to any scrutiny, but it serves a purpose here. I would say Ole Miss is a little better than Vanderbilt is, but they are in the same ballpark, and UF obviously has lost to someone from that ballpark.

If Florida comes out flat, gives up big plays on defense, gets a bad game from Tim Tebow, and turns the ball over a lot, then they could lose. If that sounds unlikely to all happen in the same game, consider that it has already happened this season on Sept. 27.

If it sounds to you like I'm not giving Vanderbilt the chance to force the issue and take this game, you're right. That's exactly what I'm saying. If Florida and Vanderbilt both play their A-games, the Gators will win by a couple scores after it being uncomfortably close all game. In other words, it will be a standard Florida-Vanderbilt game.

Vandy simply does not have the playmakers to keep up with a healthy, focused, and prepared Florida team. If they get a lackadaisical Florida team that thinks it can win simply by showing up and wearing orange helmets, then the Commodores can win. I give them a much better shot than I did Kentucky because the Wildcats were simply too ravaged by injury to win in any reasonable scenario.

It's a road game. It's a night game. It's in the SEC. Nothing is guaranteed, but if the Gators live up to Tebow's promise that he made after the Ole Miss game, then Florida will cruise to victory.