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Florida - Vanderbilt: How the Gators will clinch the SEC East

Nov 6, 2008

Game Preview

Florida (7-1) vs. Vanderbilt (5-3): Florida is rolling right now, and slowly building BCS momentum.

Vanderbilt is on a three game losing skid after starting out undefeated. 

Florida is on a four game tear through the middle of their schedule, which has featured wins over Arkansas, LSU, Kentucky, and the most recent prison yard stomping over Georgia.

Florida is playing as well as any other team in the country right now, and looks to clinch its second SEC Championship appearance under Urban Meyer. The game is on national TV on ESPN2, with a sellout expected in Nashville for the 8 p.m. kickoff.

Vanderbilt has not beaten Florida since 1988, with 17 losses to Florida in between. Florida is undefeated when playing on ESPN2, with the last win coming in 2005 against Vanderbilt.

Florida will win the game if...

They take care of the football.

Vanderbilt lives and dies by the turnover. In order for Vanderbilt to win the game, they have to force turnovers and then capitalize. Vandy has forced 11 fumbles and recovered 5 to go along with 13 interceptions. Florida killed any hope of winning against Ole Miss by turning the ball over repeatedly, and cannot afford to turn the ball over like that on Saturday night.

They are patient on offense

Florida needs to develop a workman-like attitude on offense this week. This will be more so in the passing game. Vandy's secondary is one of the best in the nation, led by D.J. Moore; and will look to shut down any deep passing threats that Florida poses.

Underneath pass routes to slot receivers and tight ends, and a strong inside running game with Emmanuel Moody will bring up the safeties, where then Florida can try deeper routes and also catch the defense off guard with running plays along the perimeter.

The second half is where the talent and the depth chart will begin to payoff for Florida, and Vandy will fold under a barrage of scoring.

Florida will lose the game if...

Vanderbilt catches the Gators by surprise

Vanderbilt did start the season undefeated, and is the best team Bobby Johnson has had in Nashville. That includes the Jay Cutler-Earl Bennett team that gave Florida all it could handle in 2005.

Ole Miss caught Florida asleep at the wheel after a big Florida road win at Tennessee, and shredded the Gator defense with a few big plays from a couple of players.

Vandy boasts little in terms of offensive threats, but WR Sean Walker is coming off of a career day against Duke, accounting for the Commodores’ only Touchdown in a 10-7 loss.

Vandy gave Georgia all it could handle a few weeks ago on the road, and they will have a packed house, blackout crowd on hand to greet the Gators. Vandy is one game away from bowl eligibility and coach Bobby Johnson could be looking at a bigger coaching job after this season. They will be looking to make the most of this opportunity against a top-five opponent.

The X-factor will be…..

Florida Quarterback Tim Tebow

Since the Ole Miss game, and the impassioned speech that followed, Tim Tebow has ignited the Gators into a completely different team, and it shows. When you look at the first four games of this season, the Gators looked sloppy, out-of–sync, and were ultimately beatable.

Now look at them, and the Ole Miss game seems like it was the 2007 Gators instead of the 2008 version. The Gators have developed a ruthlessness that has touched everyone from the coaching staff down to the special teams players. The Gators are running roughshod over people, and it doesn’t look they’re stopping until they reach the BCS.

Final Score Prediction: Florida 41, Vanderbilt 7

Florida-Vanderbilt: Gators Eye Return To East Division

Nov 5, 2008

Before the season started, I said that Vanderbilt would be the easiest game that Florida had on their schedule. But those damn Commodores decided they wanted to play football for a change. But I didn't start shying away from the possibility of them being a handful. Vandy can play an upset team as much as anyone in the country.

But an upset is not going to happen this weekend.

Vanderbilt got off to a good start this season. They started 3-0 this season then dropped a few games. All of a sudden, they weren't as intimidating as advertised. But they still want to shock the Gators and shatter their dreams of a National Championship. Teams in the SEC coming off a bye week this season seem to be faring pretty good.

But an upset is not going to happen this weekend.

Florida tore Georgia a new one. One can say that they neutered them last weekend. The almighty quarterback of Georgia, Matthew Stafford, got served in a major way this weekend. The Gators have been strong both on offense and defense since losing to Ole Miss at the beginning of the season. Now USC is sweating bullets, and Penn State is worried that their spot in the BCS is in jeopardy. Here's a thought: USC vs. Florida? Sounds pretty good to me, even if it's not for a National Championship.

This is why an upset is not going to happen this weekend.

With Alabama playing LSU, it's clear that the door is open for Florida to take advantage of a possible SEC upset this weekend. All they have to do is beat a Vandy team that is trying to make Denver feel good about picking up a former quarterback of their alma mater. But for Vandy, this could transfer over to Midnight Madness. But when the smoke clears in Tennessee, the Rocky Top State will be 0-2 against the Gators.

To make a long story short, Florida wins this game. Whether by the skin of their teeth or via their second stringers, the Gators win, clinch the SEC East, go to Atlanta and knock Alabama off that undefeated pedestal. Sorry, Tennessee. You lose Fulmer and this game all in one week. Think good ol' Rocky Top can recover from the true Sons of Anarchy in Gainesville?

I doubt it. No upsets from this SEC battle. Maybe LSU will do us a favor...and screw us at the same time.

Final Score: Florida 45, Vanderbilt 17

Week 7 Recap

Oct 24, 2008

Week 7 Recap

AFC Rundown
The Steelers took care of business by beating the Bungles. Buffalo showed they are the real deal by beating San Diego. Denver pulled an absolute choke job against New England. Baltimore's defense dominated Miami. The Raiders pulled it off in OT against the Jets and Tennessee ran all over Kansas City. Tennessee's matchup with Indy is huge this week. Oh yeah, speaking of which, Indy lost to Green Bay. A week after the media was ready to crown San Diego and Indy, both of them lay a dud. New England is still a dangerous team and might sneak into the playoffs on their weak schedule.

NFC Rundown
I called it. St. Louis over Dallas. I wasn't counting on it being by that much, but I still called it. The Giants played well in their tune-up game for Pittsburgh. Washington beat Cleveland. How tight is the AFC South? Every week you think a different team is the cream of the crop. It's definitely going to be a race for the playoff spot between the teams in the South and the teams in the East. No one from the North or West besides the division champs are making it. Speaking of which, Chicago bested Minnesota in what could best be dubbed a defensive shootout and Green Bay played great against Indy. Arizona was on their bye, but it didn't matter because Seattle and San Fran both lost, meaning that the closest team to the Cards is the 2-4 Rams. Ouch.

Game of the Week: Oakland over NY Jets
As much as I hate Oakland, Janikowski made a great kick in overtime to pull this one out. Even though there wasn't a whole lot of scoring and there was some sloppy play, this was still a very entertaining game to watch.

Most Disappointing Game of the Week: Green Bay over Indy
Everyone was expecting this to be a shootout, but Indy's offense forgot to show up. If this keeps happening much more often, Indy will be sitting on their couches watching the playoffs this year.

Performance of the Week: LenDale White and Chris Johnson
320 yards and 4 touchdowns between the two of them. Looks like I made a good call starting both of them on my fantasy team last week. Kansas City's run defense is downright awful.

Midseason Playoff Picture:

Outside looking in:
AFC: Ravens (3-3), Jets (3-3), Colts (3-3)
NFC: Falcons (4-2), Cowboys (4-3), Packers (4-3)

Vanderbilt-Duke: Commodores Look to End Embarrassing Bowl Vacancy

Oct 22, 2008

Vanderbilt enters Saturday's contest facing what could arguably be their biggest game of the season. Vandy is currently riding a two-game losing streak after opening up 5-0 and surging to the program's highest ranking in decades at No. 13.

The situation Vanderbilt finds itself in seems eerily similar to the 2005 season, when Vanderbilt opened up the season 4-0 before losing six of their last seven. Consequently, Vandy missed a bowl bid for what was then the 22nd straight year. That streak has now reached 24 straight seasons, which is the longest among BCS conferences.

Now the question lingers as to whether 2005 will repeat itself. The Commodore faithful is staying hopeful, but if Vandy drops what should be a routine home win against the Blue Devils on Saturday, the panic button might be pushed.

The Commodores are one elusive win from ending an embarrassing streak. But Saturday's game in nothing but elusive. This is not your typical Duke football team. Led by former Tennessee coordinator David Cutcliffe, Duke is playing inspired football. They were just a four-point loss to Northwestern away from starting 4-0.

Vanderbilt will most likely stick with junior quarterback Mackenzi Adams, who has shown some promise since taking over for Chris Nickson in the win against Auburn. The defense is not the highlight of Duke's team, giving up 24 points a game.

The offense, which is Cutcliffe's bread and butter, is vastly improved from previous seasons. Duke will put points on the board against Vandy's "bend but don't break" defense. If Vandy's offense struggles like it has in the previous two games, look for a close game going into the fourth quarter.

Whoever wins the turnover battle will most likely win this game. Vanderbilt's defense thrives off of turnovers. Playmaker D.J. Moore is arguably one of the best corners in the SEC—look for him to contribute to some game-changing plays on defense.

Losing is not an option come Saturday against Duke. A loss could send this team into a tailspin that it may not be able to climb out of, resulting in...dare I say it...another losing season.

However, this is not the typical Vandy team besides two straight losses. This team has been competitive in every game it has played. The team has also shown resiliency all season. In every game this season, the Commodores have found themselves trailing, and they are still carrying a 5-2 record. That shows resiliency.

Prediction: Vandy bounces back in a big way in a close win over Duke, 24-21.

College Football: Week Eight Pick 'em

Oct 17, 2008

Last week I finished even. I made some risky picks that didn't work out, and then there was Oklahoma and Missouri. Are you kidding me?

I know I say it every week, but this weekend, I'm smelling a sweep. These are my picks this week for the CU Independent.

This season: 27-21; Last Week: 4-4

Georgia Tech 27 at Clemson 17

This is a tough one to pick, but the Tigers will continue to fall in the ACC as GT will continue to rise. Plus, aren’t Yellow Jackets poisonous?

(22) Vanderbilt 20 at (10) Georgia 13

This might be the best game of the week, with two 5-1 teams battling in the SEC. I like Vandy to upset the Bulldogs on a late touchdown drive.

(12) Ohio State 23 at (20) Michigan State 14

I dislike the Buckeyes, but who am I kidding, they’ll stop the streaking Spartans.

(16) Kansas 23 at (4) Oklahoma 39

Oklahoma stayed right with Texas throughout last week’s Red River Shootout, while Kansas had some trouble with the Buffaloes. I like the Sooners to get back on that horse and buggy and add another one in the win column.

(11) Missouri 35 at (1) Texas 42

Missouri is good, but Texas is better. The Longhorns will win this touchdown party with a few key runs by Colt McCoy.

(18) North Carolina 26 at Virginia 17

Butch Davis has turned the Carolina program around, and they are now thinking about an ACC championship (that’s right, in football, not basketball). I like the Tar Heels to continue their winning ways against the Cavaliers.

(25) California 26 at Arizona 31

Cal is on top of the Pac-10 standings (who would have thought that?); at 2-0. But Mike Stoops of Arizona has his Wildcats on the rise, and they will steal one against the Golden Bears on Saturday.

 

Kansas State 20 at Colorado 24

Kansas State has put together a pretty decent season, while Dan Hawkins’ squad has had a rollercoaster year. The Wildcats will win this game as long as Josh Freeman can get time in the pocket and find holes to run through.

However, I think the Buffs defense will do a good job containing him, and pick him off a few times. The offense will finally get the ball moving again and Cody Hawkins will put up some decent numbers in CU’s first win in a month.

To see the entire sports staff's picks, go to www.thecampuspress.com

UGA vs. VU

Oct 16, 2008

So, even though I should be worried about playing yet another Top 25 team, another SEC foe and another team with a scrambling QB and scrappy Defense, I'm not. I should be worried about all these things, but I'm not. It's dangerous and crazy for me to do these things. So starting right now, I'm worried about Vandy. Worried as sh*t about Vandy.

As always, you can read Jody's Information Overload here and Doug's preview here.


When Vandy has the ball:

Vandy's Offense is probably one of the worst, if not the worst in the nation, and the stats back up the former of the two statements. Vandy is near the very bottom in Offensive statistics, but they have the amazing ability to make big plays at the right times.

Vandy's in the catbird seat of the SEC right now even though no one gives them a chance to win it all. Hell, you could say the same thing about UGA and Florida as well. Right now, you've got a helluva matchup setting up in Athens and we all know how the last two games have gone for UGA vs. Vandy. Vanderbilt runs a spread-type Offense that is a light version of what Wake Forest has done. Under Bobby Johnson, the idea is to get fast players and teach them fundamentals to make up for their lack of size. It's working amazingly well for them so far, wouldn't you think?

For Vandy, it begins and ends with QB play. Mackenzi Adams has technically been the backup for the past two seasons, but he's always come off the bench strong. In fact, he played very well against UGA last year and has played lights out in most of their games this year. Not in terms of statistics (more of that "but he's not good 'on paper' is he?"), but in terms of making plays when he needs to make plays. Just ask Auburn and they'll tell you.

Vandy runs an option-type-zone-read-type Offense that creates a lot of balance between QB rushing yards and RB (led by Jared Hawkins) rushing yards. In Vandy's win against UGA back in 2006, the QB (at that time it was Chris Nickson) ran all over UGA and we were not prepared for that kind of speed from a QB or a RB, AND NEITHER OF THEM ARE FAST! They were just faster than what we expected.

Luckily, we have a HELLUVA D-line that is absolutely gobbling up rushing yards and spitting them back up as losses. Another wonderful thing about what's going on is that UGA is facing a team that has been absolutely horrible in throwing the ball. 

So what do we do? Well, Vandy's going to try to spread us out by running a lot of 3 and 4 WR sets out of the shotgun so that we're off-balance against the run and in tough situations against the pass. The good news is, we are talented enough to keep this from being a major problem as long as we isolate the big play. If Vandy is in a 3rd and 9, or even a 3rd and 1, we have to get them off the field and keep them from converting. If we can keep them from getting into a rhythm and keep them from gaining confidence. If we get them on the ropes, we should be able to keep them there relatively easy.

We really need the Secondary and the LBs to step up and give some solid support to the D-line who will have their hands full. The key is going to be to keep passing plays under 4 seconds. Keeping a passing play under 4 seconds means we have either sacked the QB or forced him to throw to a covered man. We've got to keep the pressure on the QB at all times and trust the blitzes. Not only trust the blitzes, but love the blitzes.


When UGA has the ball:

Well, we pretty much just need to do more of the same. I know a lot of folks weren't happy with the play calling efforts of last week, but I was actually a big fan of the job that Bobo did. Aside from Stafford making a mental error or two, we actually called plays that gave us an opportunity to let our playmakers create. We ran toss sweeps, quick throws to WRs with tons of cushion and stuck to the short and medium range passes. 

Although the injury to Vince Vance sucks, I really think that we'll be fine with Boling at that position. The main thing we can't have is more injuries to the line. We are as razor thin on the Offensive Line as we were in 2003. The plan right now is to keep up the short to medium range stuff and keep those toss sweeps coming because it gets our speed guys on the outside and limits the chances for Stafford to be sacked.

Again, I know that many think Bobo did a poor job last Saturday, but that last drive by UGA in the 4th Quarter was a thing of beauty in my eyes and it's a staple of winning the Richt way.

Vandy is smallish and somewhat young on Defense, but they have a ton of speed and are very fundamentally sound. They are big threats in turnovers and sacks and we've got to be very smart with the football (aka run the hell out of it) in order to win this game. Knowshon should see 20-25 carries for us to win and we should absolutely run it to the outside to give guys like Brannan Southerland and Shaun Chapas a chance to pave the way with speed and big bodies.


Special Teams:

How about that Blair Walsh? Kid is going to be a good one, based on what we've seen so far. Hopefully the game won't be like last year's in the sense that we have to kick a game-winning field goal. But, if we do, I don't feel as nervous as I did earlier this year.

What's the best way to hide your poor kick off coverage? Well, you give your punter very little work to do (because you're too busy SCORING) and you kick the ball out of the endzone. I'm happy with that overall plan.

That also helps us keep the ball away from D.J. Moore, who is Vandy's very dangerous return guy. Yeah, we should kick it AWAY from him.


What I think will happen:

Well, right now, the spread is UGA -14.5, which means for all intents and purposes, we will not cover the spread. Vandy always plays us close and I expect Saturday to be no different. While I don't think we'll necessarily be in danger of losing, we could easily give this game away if we lose focus and forget how to play fundamentally good football.

On paper (I love that phrase) UGA is incredibly more talented than Vandy in a lot of aspects, but it's important for us to remember that Vandy has a TON of fight in them and they know how to come from behind and win. In fact, all of their victories to date have been in come from behind situations, they are on bowl-eligibility's door and they are not afraid to kick it in.

Look for a very workman-like performance from UGA. we're not going to amaze anyone, but we're going to play fundamentally smart football, grind the clock and be as efficient as possible until 60 minutes are up. It's time to put on the hard hat, because we've got some work to do to win this one.

UGA: 30
Vandy: 17


Until next time kids.

Be safe (and Go Dawgs!)

UGA vs. VU

Oct 16, 2008

So, even though I should be worried about playing yet another Top 25 team, another SEC foe and another team with a scrambling QB and scrappy Defense, I'm not. I should be worried about all these things, but I'm not. It's dangerous and crazy for me to do these things. So starting right now, I'm worried about Vandy. Worried as sh*t about Vandy.

As always, you can read Jody's Information Overload here and Doug's preview here.


When Vandy has the ball:

Vandy's Offense is probably one of the worst, if not the worst in the nation, and the stats back up the former of the two statements. Vandy is near the very bottom in Offensive statistics, but they have the amazing ability to make big plays at the right times.

Vandy's in the catbird seat of the SEC right now even though no one gives them a chance to win it all. Hell, you could say the same thing about UGA and Florida as well. Right now, you've got a helluva matchup setting up in Athens and we all know how the last two games have gone for UGA vs. Vandy. Vanderbilt runs a spread-type Offense that is a light version of what Wake Forest has done. Under Bobby Johnson, the idea is to get fast players and teach them fundamentals to make up for their lack of size. It's working amazingly well for them so far, wouldn't you think?

For Vandy, it begins and ends with QB play. Mackenzi Adams has technically been the backup for the past two seasons, but he's always come off the bench strong. In fact, he played very well against UGA last year and has played lights out in most of their games this year. Not in terms of statistics (more of that "but he's not good 'on paper' is he?"), but in terms of making plays when he needs to make plays. Just ask Auburn and they'll tell you.

Vandy runs an option-type-zone-read-type Offense that creates a lot of balance between QB rushing yards and RB (led by Jared Hawkins) rushing yards. In Vandy's win against UGA back in 2006, the QB (at that time it was Chris Nickson) ran all over UGA and we were not prepared for that kind of speed from a QB or a RB, AND NEITHER OF THEM ARE FAST! They were just faster than what we expected.

Luckily, we have a HELLUVA D-line that is absolutely gobbling up rushing yards and spitting them back up as losses. Another wonderful thing about what's going on is that UGA is facing a team that has been absolutely horrible in throwing the ball. 

So what do we do? Well, Vandy's going to try to spread us out by running a lot of 3 and 4 WR sets out of the shotgun so that we're off-balance against the run and in tough situations against the pass. The good news is, we are talented enough to keep this from being a major problem as long as we isolate the big play. If Vandy is in a 3rd and 9, or even a 3rd and 1, we have to get them off the field and keep them from converting. If we can keep them from getting into a rhythm and keep them from gaining confidence. If we get them on the ropes, we should be able to keep them there relatively easy.

We really need the Secondary and the LBs to step up and give some solid support to the D-line who will have their hands full. The key is going to be to keep passing plays under 4 seconds. Keeping a passing play under 4 seconds means we have either sacked the QB or forced him to throw to a covered man. We've got to keep the pressure on the QB at all times and trust the blitzes. Not only trust the blitzes, but love the blitzes.


When UGA has the ball:

Well, we pretty much just need to do more of the same. I know a lot of folks weren't happy with the play calling efforts of last week, but I was actually a big fan of the job that Bobo did. Aside from Stafford making a mental error or two, we actually called plays that gave us an opportunity to let our playmakers create. We ran toss sweeps, quick throws to WRs with tons of cushion and stuck to the short and medium range passes. 

Although the injury to Vince Vance sucks, I really think that we'll be fine with Boling at that position. The main thing we can't have is more injuries to the line. We are as razor thin on the Offensive Line as we were in 2003. The plan right now is to keep up the short to medium range stuff and keep those toss sweeps coming because it gets our speed guys on the outside and limits the chances for Stafford to be sacked.

Again, I know that many think Bobo did a poor job last Saturday, but that last drive by UGA in the 4th Quarter was a thing of beauty in my eyes and it's a staple of winning the Richt way.

Vandy is smallish and somewhat young on Defense, but they have a ton of speed and are very fundamentally sound. They are big threats in turnovers and sacks and we've got to be very smart with the football (aka run the hell out of it) in order to win this game. Knowshon should see 20-25 carries for us to win and we should absolutely run it to the outside to give guys like Brannan Southerland and Shaun Chapas a chance to pave the way with speed and big bodies.


Special Teams:

How about that Blair Walsh? Kid is going to be a good one, based on what we've seen so far. Hopefully the game won't be like last year's in the sense that we have to kick a game-winning field goal. But, if we do, I don't feel as nervous as I did earlier this year.

What's the best way to hide your poor kick off coverage? Well, you give your punter very little work to do (because you're too busy SCORING) and you kick the ball out of the endzone. I'm happy with that overall plan.

That also helps us keep the ball away from D.J. Moore, who is Vandy's very dangerous return guy. Yeah, we should kick it AWAY from him.


What I think will happen:

Well, right now, the spread is UGA -14.5, which means for all intents and purposes, we will not cover the spread. Vandy always plays us close and I expect Saturday to be no different. While I don't think we'll necessarily be in danger of losing, we could easily give this game away if we lose focus and forget how to play fundamentally good football.

On paper (I love that phrase) UGA is incredibly more talented than Vandy in a lot of aspects, but it's important for us to remember that Vandy has a TON of fight in them and they know how to come from behind and win. In fact, all of their victories to date have been in come from behind situations, they are on bowl-eligibility's door and they are not afraid to kick it in.

Look for a very workman-like performance from UGA. we're not going to amaze anyone, but we're going to play fundamentally smart football, grind the clock and be as efficient as possible until 60 minutes are up. It's time to put on the hard hat, because we've got some work to do to win this one.

UGA: 30
Vandy: 17


Until next time kids.

Be safe (and Go Dawgs!)

Georgia-Vanderbilt: Running Game, QB Pressure Keys for Bulldogs

Oct 16, 2008

Before I get started, is it just me or does this week not feel like the week before a big game? The problem with Vanderbilt is that EVERY team in the SEC looks at them like they're Vanderbilt of the old instead of Vandy of the new.

The truth is, I don't hate them too much, and I like to see them do well against other teams. Hell, I'm their biggest fan in regards to them becoming bowl eligible—just as long as they don't do it against us. I know, I'm a bad fan.

Even though I should be worried about playing yet another Top 25 team, another SEC foe, and another team with a scrambling QB and scrappy defense, I'm not. I should be worried about all these things, but I'm not. It's dangerous and crazy for me to do these things.
So starting right now, I'm worried about Vandy. Worried as sh*t about Vandy.
As always, you can read Jody's Information Overload here and Doug's preview here.

When Vandy has the ball
Vandy's offense is probably one of the worst, if not the worst, in the nation, and the stats back up the former of the two statements. Vandy is near the very bottom in offensive statistics, but they have the amazing ability to make big plays at the right times.
Vandy's in the catbird seat of the SEC right now, even though no one gives them a chance to win it all. Hell, you could say the same thing about UGA and Florida as well. Right now, you've got a helluva matchup setting up in Athens, and we all know how the last two games have gone for UGA vs. Vandy.
Vanderbilt runs a spread-type offense that is a light version of what Wake Forest has done. Under Bobby Johnson, the idea is to get fast players and teach them fundamentals to make up for their lack of size. It's working amazingly well for them so far, wouldn't you think?
For Vandy, it begins and ends with QB play. Mackenzi Adams has technically been the backup for the past two seasons, but he's always come off the bench strong.
In fact, Adams played very well against UGA last year and has played lights out in most of their games this year—not in terms of statistics (more of that "but he's not good 'on paper,' is he?"), but in terms of making plays when he needs to make plays. Just ask Auburn and they'll tell you.
Vandy runs an option-type-zone-read-type offense that creates a lot of balance between QB rushing yards and RB (led by Jared Hawkins) rushing yards.
In Vandy's win against UGA back in 2006, the QB (at that time it was Chris Nickson) ran all over UGA. We were not prepared for that kind of speed from a QB or a RB, AND NEITHER OF THEM ARE FAST! They were just faster than what we expected.
Luckily, we have a HELLUVA D-line that is absolutely gobbling up rushing yards and spitting them back up as losses. Another wonderful thing about what's going on is that UGA is facing a team that has been absolutely horrible in throwing the ball. 
So what do we do? Well, Vandy's going to try to spread us out by running a lot of three and four WR sets out of the shotgun so that we're off-balance against the run and in tough situations against the pass. The good news is, we are talented enough to keep this from being a major problem as long as we isolate the big play.
If Vandy is in a 3rd-and-9, or even a 3rd-and-1, we have to get them off the field and keep them from converting so we can keep them from getting into a rhythm and keep them from gaining confidence. If we get them on the ropes, we should be able to keep them there relatively easy.
We really need the secondary and the LBs to step up and give some solid support to the D-line, who will have their hands full. The key is going to be to keep passing plays under four seconds. Keeping a passing play under four seconds means we have either sacked the QB or forced him to throw to a covered man.
We've got to keep the pressure on the QB at all times and trust the blitzes. Not only trust the blitzes, but love the blitzes.
When UGA has the ball
Well, we pretty much just need to do more of the same. I know a lot of folks weren't happy with the play calling efforts of last week, but I was actually a big fan of the job that Bobo did.
Aside from Stafford making a mental error or two, we actually called plays that gave us an opportunity to let our playmakers create. We ran toss sweeps, quick throws to WRs with tons of cushion, and stuck to the short and medium range passes. 
Although the injury to Vince Vance sucks, I really think that we'll be fine with Boling at that position. The main thing we can't have is more injuries to the line. We are as razor thin on the offensive line as we were in 2003.
The plan right now is to keep up the short to medium range stuff and keep those toss sweeps coming because it gets our speed guys on the outside and limits the chances for Stafford to be sacked.
Again, I know that many think Bobo did a poor job last Saturday, but that last drive by UGA in the fourth quarter was a thing of beauty in my eyes, and it's a staple of winning the Richt way.
Vandy is smallish and somewhat young on defense, but they have a ton of speed and are very fundamentally sound. They are big threats in turnovers and sacks, and we've got to be very smart with the football (aka run the hell out of it) in order to win this game.
Knowshon should see 20-25 carries for us to win, and we should absolutely run it to the outside to give guys like Brannan Southerland and Shaun Chapas a chance to pave the way with speed and big bodies.

Special Teams
How about that Blair Walsh? Kid is going to be a good one, based on what we've seen so far. Hopefully the game won't be like last year's in the sense that we have to kick a game-winning field goal. But, if we do, I don't feel as nervous as I did earlier this year.
What's the best way to hide your poor kickoff coverage? Well, you give your punter very little work to do (because you're too busy SCORING), and you kick the ball out of the end zone. I'm happy with that overall plan.
That also helps us keep the ball away from D.J. Moore, who is Vandy's very dangerous return guy. Yeah, we should kick it AWAY from him.

What I think will happen
Well, right now, the spread is UGA -14.5, which means for all intents and purposes, we will not cover the spread. Vandy always plays us close, and I expect Saturday to be no different. While I don't think we'll necessarily be in danger of losing, we could easily give this game away if we lose focus and forget how to play fundamentally good football.
On paper (I love that phrase) UGA is incredibly more talented than Vandy in a lot of aspects, but it's important for us to remember that Vandy has a TON of fight in them and know how to come from behind and win. In fact, all of their victories to date have been in come from behind situations.
The Commodores are on bowl eligibility's door, and they are not afraid to kick it in.
Look for a very workmanlike performance from UGA. We're not going to amaze anyone, but we're going to play fundamentally smart football, grind the clock, and be as efficient as possible until 60 minutes are up. It's time to put on the hard hat, because we've got some work to do to win this one.
UGA 30, Vandy 17

Until next time kids.
Be safe (and Go Dawgs!)

SEC Football Rambling Recap: Week 6

Oct 7, 2008

Actual GameDay sign: What's Worse: Auburn's Offense or the Economy?

Vanderbilt students looked up GameDay on Wikipedia and had a respectable crowd Saturday morning.

Auburn, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Tennessee fans are all asking themselves the same question: How is Vanderbilt's backup quarterback better than all quarterbacks on our team?

Auburn still looked like a Spread team without any Spread players in Nashville. Fortunately, they host Arkansas this weekend. The Hogs happen to be the perfect cure for an anemic offense. We'll see how big Tony Franklin's ego really is. He'll either try to prove the Spread will work—eventually—or he'll run the ball straight at the hapless Hog defensive line for an easy five yards a carry.

Arkansas' defense might just be bad enough for the Spread to work.

Actual GameDay sign: Lee Corso Scores More Than Auburn

Does Tony Franklin also coordinate Tennessee's offense? A 13-9 victory over Northern Illinois might qualify for the ugliest game of the season, battling the 3-2 slugfest for the top spot.

There's something missing from this Florida team. They haven't been sharp the past two weeks, and the early kickoff times aren't enough of an excuse. There's a good chance Urban Meyer saved a lot of the game plan for LSU, who visits this week. Expect more scrambling from Tebow, but also expect LSU to hold them to 21 points in a Tiger win.

Actual GameDay sign: You People are Blocking the Library.

South Carolina's defense should be enough to keep them close the rest of the way. Just being close will be scary enough for other teams that have to deal with Spurrier's play-calling late in a game. All of a sudden, 4-2 with losses to Vanderbilt and Georgia doesn't seem that bad.

My preseason pick for SEC Coach of the Year isn't looking too good. The improvement in quality of play over last year is obvious in Oxford, but Nutt has also lost three games by 2, 6, and 7 points. The Rebels gave up leads in each game.

Ok, maybe we hyped Alabama a little too much after the beatdown in Athens, but I'd still take them over the Big XII teams in the top five. Their offense doesn't put up Playstation numbers like the Big XII, but the Tide defense will stop teams when it counts. I know, I know, its way too early to talk about that.

Actual GameDay sign: I Got My GED from Auburn

We might be in store for up to three more “Games of the Year,” as dubbed by the media. First, there was USC-Ohio State. This weekend is OU-Texas. The winner of that will likely face an undefeated Missouri team, either in the regular season for Texas or in the Big XII Championship for Oklahoma.

I want LSU and Alabama to both make it unscathed until November 8, but don't expect it. Defense may win championships, but poor quarterback play can lead to upsets. Both are susceptible.

Actual GameDay sign: The SEC Drew Straws, & Its Vandy's Turn to Beat Ohio State in a Bowl Game.

Related articles:

SEC Football Rambling Recap Week 5

Oklahoma: The Other Ohio State

Vanderbilt, Auburn Headed In Different Directions

Oct 5, 2008

I'm not sure if I'm ready to live in a world where Florida is on the cusp on being in the top 10 and Vandy is still just two spots back of them.

Yes, Vanderbilt is off to its best start since 1943, and a win in Starkville this weekend means their best start since 1928. Of course, that was back when Vandy did things like beat Alabama in Birmingham (1927), defeat Texas in Dallas (1928) and blow out Auburn 41-2 (1929). Though they struggled some in the 1940s and 1950s, they didn't become a perpetual doormat until the 1960s.

It sure looks like I was right to put Vandy on bowl watch after Week Two, after all. They should be able to pick up at least one win among their games against Mississippi State, Duke, Kentucky, and, yes, Tennessee. None of those teams looks better than any of the five Vandy has defeated so far. Of course, they've played Florida and Georgia close in recent years, and if Wake Forest is capable of losing to Navy, the Deacs can lose to Vandy.

I would expect 7-9 wins on the season from the Commodores. Eventually, they will run into a game where the ball doesn't bounce their way all of the second half, and two or three of the remaining opponents are just plain better teams. The floor on that range is if Vanderbilt remembers it's Vanderbilt, and the ceiling is if the dream continues.

Meanwhile, Auburn fans are seriously melting down over Tony Franklin. Even though they aren't actually running the Tony Franklin system.

On the drives that ended in scores, Auburn basically Tuberballed down the field until the red zone, and then they spread things out to get open receivers near the goal line. That worked remarkably well. Vandy caught on to this, however, and started taking away the power running game. Neither Chris Todd nor Kodi Burns could make the Commodores pay.

The actual problems Auburn is having are not any different than the ones they had with Brandon Cox, it's just that Cox was a better quarterback than both Todd and Burns are. Drop in a better passer, and many problems go away. In that sense, the offensive mess is as much Tuberville's fault for not recruiting a better quarterback as it is Franklin's fault for trying to shake things up a bit with new formations.

The Tigers seriously need to pick an identity and stick with it, because this is two weeks in a row they're promising changes. You can't just keep making big changes every week because that will only ensure they never find the rhythm they're looking for. The defense can't bail the offense out every week.

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