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Astros vs. Phillies: Which Team Gains an Edge With World Series Game 3 Rainout?
Nov 1, 2022
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 29: Zack Wheeler #45 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros hit a 3-run home run during the 5th inning of Game Two of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 29, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
There was no World Series Game 3 on Monday night because of the weather in Philadelphia. While everything remains tied 1-1, there is a chain reaction to the rain.
The Astros, with perhaps the deepest pitching staff in all of baseball, remain on schedule to start Lance McCullers Jr. in Game 3 and Cristian Javier in Game 4.
They have more starters in the bullpen like Luis García, who they used in Game 1, and José Urquidy, who is tied for the most World Series wins in franchise history but has yet to be deployed this postseason. That's because the Astros' relievers are capable, posting the lowest bullpen ERA and entering the World Series with a 0.82 ERA over 33 innings pitched.
It's different for the Phillies.
They have two ace-caliber starters in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Ranger Suárez is a complementary No. 3, but from there the back end of the rotation gets thin with a diminished Noah Syndergaard and Kyle Gibson.
The updated #WorldSeries pitching matchups for the games in Philly ⚾️
Game 3: McCullers vs. Suárez Game 4: Javier vs. Nola Game 5: Verlander vs. Syndergaard pic.twitter.com/RaAqLYkqSr
Here is how Monday's postponement impacts both teams and who gets the edge because of it.
Phillies delay bullpen game, get much-needed extra rest for Wheeler
Originally, Phillies manager Rob Thomson planned to have Syndergaard pitch Game 3 and Suárez for Game 4. But with the rain pushing things back a day, Suárez can pitch Game 3 and Nola, who started Game 1 last Friday, can pitch Game 4.
What happens in those two games presents an interesting hypothetical for Thomson and the Phillies. He said Monday night that Wheeler would get extra rest and the plan for Game 5 is to start either Syndergaard, if they don't use him in the next couple of days, or Gibson.
That would, in effect, be a bullpen game. But what if the Astros win the next two and the Phillies are facing elimination at home in Game 5?
It's hard to imagine they wouldn't give the ball to Wheeler in their final home game, with the season on the line.
Wheeler's dip in velocity was a talking point after his Game 2 performance, when he gave up five runs (four earned) on six hits, including a homer, and struck out three.
Still, Wheeler sitting in the dugout while you lose the World Series would be gross mismanagement.
Verlander gets more rest as postponement plays to Astros' depth
Arguably the Astros' most important pitchers will benefit from the extra rest. That includes 39-year-old Justin Verlander, who squandered a 5-0 lead through the first three innings of Game 1.
They also rest their best relievers. Closer Ryan Pressly threw a combined 33 pitches in the first two games, while Rafael Montero threw 41 pitches in those games, including 33 in Game 2.
Getting two full days of rest should reset the clock on both of them.
The interesting question for Houston is how best to use Verlander if Philadelphia wins Game 3. It's likely the Astros stick to their plan, but having Verlander pitch Game 4 to avoid an elimination scenario at Citizens Bank Park would make sense.
Also worth asking is whether Framber Valdez, based on recent performance, would be the Astros' best option in an elimination game.
Valdez has a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his three postseason starts this year, compared to Verlander's 7.20 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Verlander was rough in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners, giving up six runs on 10 hits before a furious Astros comeback, highlighted by an improbable Yordan Álvarez three-run walk-off homer, bailed him out.
Verlander was better against the Yankees in the ALCS but struggled with command against the Phillies in Game 1 of the World Series.
Advantage goes to Astros
While it benefits the Phillies to have more flexibility in how they use Wheeler, their best pitcher, that still doesn't say much for the matchup against the Astros.
Just look at what the Astros were able to do to him in Game 2. They scored five runs (four earned) on six hits in five innings pitched by Wheeler.
Thomson called Wheeler's stuff "a little bit light" and noted his location was off but said he expects both Wheeler and Nola to be ready for the next time.
The rain delay makes it interesting for Thomson to decide when that is, exactly. If the Phillies lose both games, or win both games, ideally it's Wheeler pitching in the elimination or closeout situation.
Meanwhile, the Astros have no need to adjust their plans at all.
They have a wealth of pitching depth that can only benefit from the extra rest. And their lineup has shown it can produce against Philly's best hurlers in Wheeler and Nola.
Suárez pitched just three innings the last time he started against Houston on Oct. 4, just before the regular season ended. The Astros scored six runs on seven hits, including homers by Jeremy Peña, Kyle Tucker and Martín Maldonado.
The Astros have good reason to be confident in their rotation as is, and that their lineup matches up well against anyone Philly puts on the mound.
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Gauging the Yankees' Panic Meter After Digging 2-0 Hole vs. Astros in ALCS
Zachary D. Rymer
Oct 21, 2022
New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone blows a bubble whilst making a pitching change during the eighth inning in Game 2 of baseball's American League Championship Series between the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees, Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki )
If the history of best-of-seven series in Major League Baseball's postseason is any indication, there's now just a 16 percent chance of the New York Yankees returning to the World Series for the first time since 2009.
Time to panic? We'll get to that.
What's undeniably true right now is that the Yankees are reeling from back-to-back losses to the Houston Astros to begin the American League Championship Series. After Justin Verlander pitched Houston to a 4-2 victory in Game 1 on Wednesday, Alex Bregman played the hero by way of a three-run home run that paced a 3-2 win in Game 2 on Thursday:
For its part, a Yankees offense that led the American League in scoring and home runs in the regular season simply couldn't get to Framber Valdez. The only two runs the left-hander gave up in seven innings were unearned, and he ended up with the third-most swings and misses ever recorded in a playoff game.
Once Ryan Pressly got Matt Carpenter on a check swing to strike out the side and end the game, the Astros had secured their fifth straight win to begin the postseason. Per MLB.com's Sarah Langs, that's tied for the sixth-longest streak in the league's wild-card era.
So, just how doomed are the Yankees?
Why the Panic Meter Is High
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 20: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees reacts after scoring a run against the Houston Astros during the fourth inning in game two of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 20, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Short answer? It's the offense, stupid.
Though they were ultimately victorious, the Yankees weren't racking up hits and runs on the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Division Series. They mustered 20 runs in five games, with a .182 average that ranks among the worst ever for a team that won a best-of-five series.
Two games into the ALCS, things have improbably gotten worse. The Yankees only have four runs, as well as just nine hits and—[double-checks notes]—holy smokes, that really does say 30 strikeouts.
The Yankees are now batting just .169 for the playoffs. That's bad. Bad as in second-worst all-time to the 2017 Chicago Cubs among clubs that played at least seven games in a postseason.
For the most part, it's been a perfect storm of good pitching and bad hitting. To the former, it's just plain hard for hitters to do damage when they're up against stuff like this:
To the latter, the Yankees are swinging at air too often. Their collective strikeout rate ranks as the highest all-time among teams with so many as five games played in a given postseason:
2022 New York Yankees: 33.7 percent
2019 Los Angeles Dodgers: 32.8 percent
2017 Cleveland Guardians: 32.6 percent
Though Verlander and Valdez may indeed be out of the way for now, the Yankees still face tough challenges in Games 3 and 4.
Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. are lined up to take the ball to start things for Houston. Javier had a 13-strikeout game against New York back on June 25, while McCullers pitched to a 2.27 ERA in eight regular-season outings before hurling six shutout frames in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners. Although it is worth mentioning that McCullers Jr. was bumped back from Game 3 to Game 4 due to getting hit on the elbow by a champagne bottle during the celebration after defeating the Mariners.
Factoring in just how much Houston's bullpen has lived up to its MLB-best 2.80 ERA so far in these playoffs—how about a 0.71 ERA?—it's hard to view the outlook of the Yankees offense as anything other than grim.
Why the Panic Meter Is Low
New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone, left, watches teams ahead of Game 1 of baseball's American League Championship Series between the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/Kevin M. Cox)
Well, for starters, Game 2 is one that the Yankees could have won.
The 97 mph fastball that Bregman hit out wasn't even a bad pitch by Luis Severino, nor was the resulting long ball a crush job. Per Statcast, it left the bat at a modest 91.8 mph and had just a 4 percent chance of becoming a hit.
Compare that to this one that Aaron Judge, he of the American League record 62 home runs, just missed with a runner on in the eighth inning:
That was 106.3 mph off the bat with a 91 percent chance of going for a hit. As manager Aaron Boone opined, it might have reached the seats if the roof hadn't been open at Minute Maid Park.
To quote Severino: "I threw a great pitch. He hit it at 91 mph. That's the only thing I'm gonna say and Judge hit it at 106 mph and it didn't go out. I don't know, they got lucky."
In addition to a feeling that they got screwed, the Yankees can also walk away from Houston feeling proud about the aspects of the game where they did play well.
Above all, with regard to their run prevention. Severino and Jameson Taillon both pitched well in their starting assignments, and a defense that led MLB in defensive runs saved this season was on point.
Certainly, never more so than on this double play in Game 2 (second highlight in the clip below):
The bullpen also had a good game on Thursday, as Jonathan Loáisiga and Wandy Peralta allowed just three hits and a walk in 2.2 innings of relief for Severino. All-Star closer Clay Holmes, meanwhile, has gotten a much-needed rest since he last appeared on Tuesday.
Further reasons for optimism on the pitching side include Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes, who are slated to start Games 3 and 4. McCullers and Javier are talented, sure, but they're up against two hurlers who had a combined 3.03 ERA in the regular season and have thus far pitched to a 2.34 ERA through four starts in the playoffs.
Last but not least, even Dorothy doesn't value home as much as the Yankees have in 2022. Whereas they went just 42-39 on the road, their 57-24 record at Yankee Stadium tied for the best home record in the league.
Let's Put the Panic Meter at...
How about a nice, solid 7 out of 10?
Let's go back to how history just isn't on the Yankees' side. Of the 88 teams that have ever fallen into a 2-0 hole in a best-of-seven series, only 14 have ever come back to emerge victorious.
And while it's all well and good that the Yankees have played the Astros tough in this series, that it's nonetheless been in losing efforts qualifies as more of the same.
Mind you, not just to the extent that Houston also beat New York in the ALCS in 2017 and 2019. The Astros went 5-2 against the Yankees in the regular season this year, with both losses coming in games they led going into the late innings on June 23 and 26.
Between that and how things are looking so far in this latest grudge between these two rivals, it sure looks like one of them is simply better than the other.
Game 3 will be at Yankee Stadium on Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 5:07 p.m. ET.
Framber Valdez, Alex Bregman Praised by MLB Twitter in Astros' Game 2 Win vs. Yankees
Oct 21, 2022
Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) reacts after stiking New York Yankees Kyle Higashioka during the seventh inning in Game 2 of baseball's American League Championship Series, Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
The New York Yankees struggled to do much against Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez on Thursday night. And that set up Alex Bregman to be the hero, an October theme in recent years.
The star third baseman's three-run homer in the bottom of the third inning was ultimately the difference in this game, giving the Astros a 3-2 win and a 2-0 advantage in the American League Championship Series.
Alex Bregman's 14th career postseason home run broke a tie with Justin Turner for the most by a third baseman in MLB history. pic.twitter.com/SSXP5pVD6X
Valdez had it handled from there, throwing seven innings of four-hit ball while striking out nine. He didn't give up an earned run, with both runs coming in the top of the fourth after both a fielding error and throwing error from the pitcher, on the same play, left two men on base. Both scored in ensuing at-bats.
Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly handled the eighth and ninth innings, respectively, without too much drama—although Aaron Judge did smash one to the warning track in right field in the eighth, a very deep and scary out for Houston—and the Astros have the Yankees on the ropes as the series heads back to New York.
The Astros have a funny habit of being in the mix every October, and Bregman has a knack for being at the center of the heroics, so his homer was par for the course. But Valdez perplexing a scary Yankees lineup was huge.
Perhaps that shouldn't come as a major surprise, either. After all, Valdez was 17-6 this season with a 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 194 strikeouts, easily his best season in the big leagues.
It's one thing to do it in the regular season. It's another to bring the goods in October. The moment wasn't too big for Valdez.
