Astros Should Keep Framber Valdez Amid MLB Trade Rumors to Preserve Rotation Depth
Erik Beaston
Dec 16, 2023
HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 23: Framber Valdez #59 of the Houston Astros walks on the field prior to Game 7 of the ALCS between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Monday, October 23, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Could Framber Valdez really be a trade chip for the Houston Astros?
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported, "Executives from two clubs indicated this week that their teams are monitoring the possibility of the Astros trading left-hander Framber Valdez."
The Astros have several contracts in need of extensions, including Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve and according to Rosenthal, dealing their ace pitcher could provide them the opportunity to bolster their farm system.
That may be true, but in a game that can turn on a single pitch, the idea that the organization would be entertaining letting Valdez go in favor of retaining bats suggests it watched the Texas Rangers hit their way to a world title in 2023 and believe that to be the model moving forward.
The Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Baltimore Orioles were the three best teams in baseball in the regular season and watched their dreams of a World Series evaporate in the divisional round of the playoffs amid poor pitching performances, though, seemingly accentuating the significance of quality arms in the starting rotation.
Valdez finished last season with a 3.45 ERA, a WHIP of 1.126, and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He was good for 3.2 wins above replacement and tallied the most strikeouts in a single season of his career with 200.
Even in what may have been considered a "down" year, Valdez was better than most and earned both an All-Star bid and finished ninth in Cy Young voting. He has been one of the best pitchers in the game over the last three seasons and though the Astros may be content with allowing Justin Verlander to be their ace in 2024, and seeing what they can get in return for Valdez, but that would be a mistake.
Verlander saw his ERA rise in Houston after a midseason trade from the Mets (3.15 to 3.31) and his innings-pitched drop from 94 to 68.
He still has stuff and can contribute, but expecting him to be a reliable and quality starter when you have a guy in Valdez who went 11-6 and 17-6 in 2021 and 2022 and has been a big part of establishing the Astros as the closest thing to a modern dynasty as we have, is a mistake.
Keep Valdez, pair him with Verlander, and let them lead the rotation in pursuit of another World Series. If money is the problem, letting Bregman or Tucker go and restocking the farm system is the better route.
We have seen players get hot and produce offense but pitching is the most tried and true asset in postseason baseball and essentially giving it away is not a recipe for victory.
MLB Trade Rumors: Astros' Framber Valdez Being Monitored by at Least 2 Teams
Dec 15, 2023
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 27: Framber Valdez #59 of the Houston Astros pitches during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on September 27, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
MLB teams are reportedly monitoring the possibility of the Houston Astros trading starting pitcher Framber Valdez this offseason.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, executives from two teams have said they are keeping an eye on Valdez's situation in case he is made available for trade.
Rosenthal noted that the Astros' potential desire to get under the luxury-tax threshold could play a major role in the decision if Houston decides to trade Valdez.
At $237.4 million, the Astros are just above the first luxury-tax threshold, but according to Rosenthal, they have never been over the threshold while under the ownership of Jim Crane, aside from the COVID-shortened season of 2020, which saw MLB suspend all luxury-tax penalties.
Over the past seven seasons, the Astros have been the most successful team in baseball, making seven straight playoff appearances and four trips to the World Series, winning two of them.
Pitching has been a significant part of the Astros' prosperity, and Valdez has arguably been their best and most consistent hurler over the past few seasons.
The 2021 season marked the first time Valdez established himself as an ace over the course of a full season, going 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 125 strikeouts in 134.2 innings pitched.
He went on to become an All-Star in each of the next two seasons, including his career-best 2022 campaign when he went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and 194 strikeouts over an American League-leading 201.1 innings en route to finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting.
The lefty followed that up last season with a 12-11 record, 3.45 ERA and a career-high 200 strikeouts over 198 innings.
Valdez has also been solid in 16 career playoff appearances, including 15 starts, going 7-5 with a 4.24 ERA and 92 strikeouts over 80.2 innings.
The 30-year-old veteran is arbitration-eligible for the next two seasons before becoming a free agent in 2026, and he is in line to earn a significant raise from the $6.8 million he made last season, per Spotrac.
If the Astros trade Valdez, it would leave 40-year-old future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier as the top dogs in the starting rotation.
Lance McCullers Jr. could also figure into the mix, but injuries have limited him to a total of 265 innings pitched over the past four seasons.
Houston typically always finds a way to contend for championships regardless of what personnel moves it makes, but moving a reliable starter like Valdez without properly replacing him could be a case of the Astros playing with fire.
The Houston Astros are one game away from returning to the World Series and upsetting a lot of fans outside of that city, thanks to a 3-2 ALCS lead over the…
Astros' Framber Valdez Blasted by MLB Fans as Rangers Shell SP, Take 2-0 ALCS Lead
Oct 17, 2023
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 16: Framber Valdez #59 of the Houston Astros reacts after a throwing error against the Texas Rangers during the first inning in Game Two of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 16, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
It's been an ugly postseason for Framber Valdez.
The Houston Astros star pitcher was once again under the microscope Monday in Game 2 of the ALCS against the Texas Rangers and got blasted by an offense that was ready for anything the two-time All-Star had to throw at them.
Texas was on Valdez from the jump, scoring four runs in the first inning and were all over his nasty sinker. The Rangers were aggressive very early in the count en route to a close 5-4 victory.
Valdez lasted just 2.2 innings in Game 2, allowing five runs—four earned—seven hits and six strikeouts. He also had two key errors which directly led to the Rangers getting runs in the first inning.
But Houston is the reigning champion for a reason and its offense was nearly capable of dragging them all the way back into the game after Valdez's shelling. Yordan Alvarez was once again magnificent, hitting two homers, including the solo shot that cut the deficit to one in the eighth inning.
One key moment came in the fifth inning when Rangers' starter Nathan Eovaldi had a no-out, bases loaded jam and managed to escape unscathed preserving a 5-2 Texas lead.
So, while there were a number of chances for Valdez's struggles to be forgotten, it wasn't to be for the Astros, who are now in a 2-0 series deficit.
And MLB fans were extremely ready to jump on Valdez for another poor performance.
Framber Valdez has been pulled from this game in the top of the 3rd inning. The Rangers lead 5-1
Jonah Heim answers with a home run of his own. Framber Valdez has nothing today. Rangers are back ahead, 5-1, and both of Texas' home runs in the ALCS so far have come from hitters in the bottom half of their lineup, which is looking absolutely terrifying.
Framber completely melted & only lasted 2.2 innings. Kyle Tucker & Jose Altuve are on a milk carton. The Astros failed to score with the bases loaded and 0 out. Yet they’re still right in it.
If they can get the slightest bit of luck then maybe they can flip things upside down.
Ring culture might exist in mlb twitter because Gerrit Cole (2.93 career postseason era) gets talked about more as a playoff dropper much more than Framber valdez (4.19 career postseason era)
Now, Houston has its back on the ropes as it tries to escape a 3-0 series hole Wednesday night at Globe Life Field with three-time Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer taking the mound for Texas.
Who is the best among all 30 teams' best starting pitchers?
Astros' Framber Valdez Amazes Twitter With Dominance in No-Hitter vs. Guardians
Aug 2, 2023
Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez, center, is embraced by catcher Martin Maldonado and third baseman Alex Bregman after throwing a no-hitter against the Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023, in Houston. (AP Photo/Kevin M. Cox)
Framber Valdez has joined the no-no club.
The Houston Astros ace pitched the third no-hitter of the 2023 MLB season and the first of his career on Tuesday, giving up just one walk and striking out seven Cleveland Guardians batters en route to a 2-0 win at Minute Maid Park.
FRAMBER VALDEZ WITH THE NO HITTER IN HOUSTON TEXAS. WHAT A NIGHT FOR THE STAFF ACE. THE FRAMCHISE. HIS VERY FIRST MLB NO HITTER!!! PLAY FRAMBERS SONG!! pic.twitter.com/6FzMqcjdhS
So on the same day the defending champs got Justin Verlander back in a trade with the New York Mets—a deal that will see the Mets pay "$35 million out of the $58 million remaining on Verlander's deal in 2023 and 2024 and $17.5 million of his 2025 option if it vests," per ESPN's Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan—they also get a no-hitter from Valdez.
How was your Tuesday?
Another fun factoid from Valdez's no-no—it was the third one caught by Martin Maldonado:
Martin Maldonado has now caught 3 no-hitters, tied for 3rd-most in MLB history, behind only:
The only thing that didn't go the Astros' way was that they didn't make up any ground on the Texas Rangers, who beat the Chicago White Sox 2-0 on Tuesday. The Rangers (61-46) remain a half game ahead of the Astros (61-47) in the AL West.
The Astros, however, are firmly in a wild-card spot, four games clear of the Boston Red Sox. They are 11-6 since the All-Star break, and the addition of Verlander has them looking very much like favorites in the American League.
It should be a fun two months down the stretch as Houston prepares, yet again, for October baseball.
With several weeks having gone by since Round 1, it's now time for B/R writers Joel Reuter and Zachary Rymer to banter about the latest hot topics from around…
HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 13: during the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Thursday, October 13, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The agent for Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez disputed a recent story from the Dominican Republic about contract negotiations with the team.
Ulises Cabrera told the Houston Chronicle's Chandler Rome a rumored $150 million price tag for an extension is "absolutely 100 percent made up information."
"That is 1,000 percent categorically false," he said. "I haven't even had a conversation with [general manager Dana Brown] with respect to Framber Valdez. There are no negotiations. Whatever conversations that do exist will not be handled in the press."
The Astros agreed to a one-year, $6.8 million salary with Valdez last month to avoid arbitration, so his status in the short term is secure.
In general, the organization hasn't been afraid to lose some of its best players to free agency.
Reigning American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander is the most recent example after he signed with the New York Mets. Carlos Correa, George Springer and Gerrit Cole all walked out the door before him.
Houston's preference is to extend its stars before free agency enters the equation. Yordan Alvarez signed a six-year, $115 million extension this past June. Last week, Cristian Javier signed for $64 million over five years.
You'd assume Brown, who took over as the Astros general manager in January, would be open to discussing a new deal for Valdez. The southpaw might be eager to secure a long-term payday now as well.
Valdez didn't make his MLB debut until he was 24, which inevitably pushes his free agency to a later point in his career than you usually see. He's not eligible to hit the open market until after the 2025 season, when he'll be 32.
The 2022 All-Star is also coming off his best season. In 31 starts, he went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and a 3.06 FIP, and his three complete games were the most in the American League.
Valdez finished fifth in the AL Cy Young voting, and his 4.4 WAR were 10th-most among all pitchers at FanGraphs.
With Verlander's departure, he's now positioned as Houston's ace in 2023. If he continues to perform at an elite level, you'd expect his representatives to more aggressively pursue a multiyear pact next offseason if they don't have one lined up before then.
World Series Champion Astros Prove That Even Villains Can Have a Dynasty
Zachary D. Rymer
Nov 6, 2022
The Houston Astros celebrate with the trophy after their 4-1 World Series win against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
The Houston Astros are World Series champions. For real this time. No ifs, ands or buts about it. And no asterisks, real or imagined.
So, let's call them what they deserve to be called: a dynasty.
Judging from all the boos and jeers that the Astros have heard away from Minute Maid Park over the last few seasons, this is bound to register as an Unpopular Opinion. And, to be fair, said boos and jeers were well-founded. Nobody likes a cheater, and that's what the Astros were when they won their first World Series in 2017.
But this time around? This time around they were simply the best team in Major League Baseball.
This seemed true enough as the Astros tallied 106 wins in the regular season, and then increasingly so as they won each of their first seven in the playoffs. The Philadelphia Phillies positioned themselves to upset the narrative by winning two of the first three games of the World Series, but three straight victories by Houston put the kibosh on that.
The Astros outscored the Phillies 12-3 in Games 4, 5 and 6. In other words, the victors got as many runs on Yordan Álvarez's epic go-ahead home run in Saturday's decisive game as the losers scored in the last three games combined.
That plus Christian Vázquez's run-scoring single later in the sixth inning pretty much put the game on ice. The last nine outs that Houston had to get felt like so many formalities, up to and including the one that nestled in Kyle Tucker's glove for the third out of the ninth inning.
Thus did the Astros secure the World Series ring that eluded Dusty Baker in his first 24 years as a manager, and at least open the door for a conversation about their dynasty credentials.
What's In a Dynasty?
Houston Astros manager Dusty Baker Jr. and the Houston Astros celebrate their 4-1 World Series win against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
There's at least one obvious complication in attempting to slap the "dynasty" label on the Astros, and it's that the dictionary definition of the word doesn't exactly apply in this context.
Heck, even the Astros weren't sure of their dynasty status as of a couple of days ago.
When Sam Blum and Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic asked around on the eve of the World Series, they got yesses from Justin Verlander, Yuli Gurriel and Martín Maldonado but a no from Jose Altuve and what amounted to "not sures" from Lance McCullers Jr. and Alex Bregman, though both of them added the same caveat.
As summarized by Bregman: "I think we’ve got to win this series."
Well, now they've done that. And it does feel like a sort of exclamation mark on a list of organizational accomplishments that also include:
Six straight trips to the American League Championship Series
World Series appearances in 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022
That's a whole lot of winning over a sustained stretch of time. And if there was to be an officially recognized definition of "dynasty" in a sports context, that's our submission.
Of course, there is the elephant in the room. Or rather, the banging scheme in the dugout.
Yes, it happened. Specifically, in 2017 and into 2018 per MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred's findings on the matter. The scheme might not have actually helped the Astros all that much, but suggesting as much is sort of beside the point. That they even had the gall do to it was crime enough.
"We obviously cheated baseball and cheated fans," was how ex-slugger Evan Gattis put it in 2020. "Fans felt duped. I feel bad for fans."
And yet, much has changed since then.
This goes for the environment around the Astros, as the threat of teams copy-catting their method of using video to steal and decode signs in real time has since been diminished through new protocols and the introduction of the PitchCom system.
It also goes for the Astros themselves. Banging scheme ringleaders Alex Cora and Carlos Beltran were already gone by the time the scandal burst into the open in 2020, an event which also cost general manager Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch their jobs.
There's even shockingly little connective tissue between the 2017 team and the 2022 team roster-wise. Altuve, Bregman and Gurriel are the only surviving members of the former's ill-begotten historic offense, with only McCullers and Verlander remaining on the pitching side.
To hold the misdeeds of the 2017 Astros against the 2022 Astros is therefore beyond holding the sins of the father against the son. It's more like demanding a son pay for the sins of his great-grandfather.
Instead of holding that grudge, how about acknowledging the non-nefarious ways the Astros built their dynasty?
The Astros Are a Machine
Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena celebrates with the trophy after their 4-1 World Series win against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
It's never easy to summarize any team's organizational philosophy, but the Astros' seems to be "look wherever and do whatever to find and develop good players."
Take Álvarez, for example.
The Astros acquired him from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for middle relliever Josh Fields in Aug. 2016. Baseball America tabbed his bat control as his calling card, noting that his power only showed up in workouts.
Cut to now, and Alvarez is a 6'5", 225-pounder with 98 home runs in 368 career regular-season games, plus another six in 47 playoff games. Each of the three he hit in this postseason were all go-ahead shots in the sixth inning or later, which MLB.com's Sarah Langs noted as a first for MLB history.
For another example, take Jeremy Peña.
The Astros drafted him out of the University of Maine, a place that, with all respect to Bill Swift, is not known as a prospect factory. Next thing anyone knows, Peña is Houston's heir to former No. 1 pick and AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa at shortstop. And now, he's a Gold Glover and the first AL player to ever claim MVP honors for both the LCS and World Series.
But if anything has made the Astros the envy of MLB in recent years, it's surely the organization's ability to take seemingly any random pitcher and turn him into a military-grade weapon. And for a very simple yet nonetheless very good reason.
As Mike Fast, formerly Houston's research and development director, once put it: "The Astros have not, for a while now, had any hesitation about just, ‘Throw your best pitches.’”
To this, there's perhaps never been a more glowing testament than a moundstaff that featured some of MLB's best fastballs and breaking balls and, oh yeah, was generally just very, very good in 2022.
Though Verlander was already well decorated by the time he arrived in Houston, it was the Astros who fully unlocked his slider and, with it, arguably the best years of his Cooperstown career.
Albeit on a longer timeline, they also fully unlocked Framber Valdez as a stifler of hard contact and Cristian Javier and a misser of bats. Their six playoff starts yielded just four earned runs over 36.1 innings, with Javier working the tip of the spear for Houston's combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.
Ryan Pressly, meanwhile, is but one of many talented hurlers who can take credit for the MLB-best 2.80 ERA that the bullpen posted in the regular season and, well, all of the other-worldly numbers it put up in the postseason:
The Astros’ bullpen this postseason, with ranks among 94 teams with 35+ IP from bullpen in a single postseason:
0.83 ERA, lowest .126 Opp BA, lowest .215 Opp OBP, lowest .208 Opp SLG, lowest 0.75 WHIP, lowest
The awkward part is who, specifically, should get the credit for the Astros approach and all its benefits. James Click is running the front office now as the team's GM, but every single one of the players mentioned by name in this piece was originally acquired by Luhnow, who's now out of baseball and into soccer.
And yet, this really only matters if you're going to insist on personnel consistency as a stipulation for a proper dynasty. And if we must, well, dare we ask that people give it time?
It's not as if a breaking of the band is upon the Astros. They could sustain some losses this winter, including Baker from the manager's chair, Verlander from the rotation, Gurriel from first base and Rafael Montero from the bullpen. Everyone else, though, is in for 2023. And beyond, in many cases.
Whether the Astros will ever be able to outlast the boos and jeers is one question. Whether they'll keep contending for championships, however, is not a question at all.
